1 ANALISIS DE LA INVERSION DE LOS MECANISMOS DE [PDF]

ANALISIS DE LA INVERSION DE LOS MECANISMOS DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO EN COLOMBIA “CASO TRANSMILENIO FASE II” 1 LARA, Edna Julieth; RODRIGUEZ, Natalia**

PALABRAS CLAVES CER´s: en sus siglas en inglés, Certified Emisions Reduction, o sea Reducciones Certificadas de Emisiones. EFECTO INVERNADERO: es la elevación de temperatura debida a que algunos gases presentes en la atmósfera, como el agua en vapor, el dióxido de carbono y el óxido nitroso, retienen naturalmente en parte el calor que la Tierra recibe del Sol. MECANISMO DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO: es uno de los mecanismos cooperativos definido por el Artículo 12 del Protocolo de Kyoto. Permite proyectos de reducción de emisiones que propicien un desarrollo sostenible en los países en desarrollo y generen "reducciones certificadas de emisiones" para el uso del inversionista. METH PANEL: Organismo que se encarga de evaluar el proyecto presentado para ser aprobado como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. PROTOCOLO DE KYOTO: es el Protocolo adoptado por la Convención en la reunión de las Partes en Kyoto, Japón, el 10 de Diciembre de 1997, y es enmendado o implementado por consecuencia de las Conferencias de las partes o de otra manera.

DESCRIPCION El objeto de la presente investigación es analizar como se ha llevado acabo la implementación de la estrategia de Mecanismos de Desarrollo limpio en el caso del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilienio fase II, en la ciudad de Bogotá, se planteo como hipótesis Los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), implementados a través de la Fase II del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio, han presentado un alto nivel de efectividad, contribuyendo de esta manera al mejoramiento de la calidad ambiental en la 1

PROYECTO PARTICULAR Estudiantes de último semestre de la Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales, con la asesoría del profesor Julio Cesar Ducon. **

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ciudad de Bogotá. Se analiza el caso TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, tomando como base el documento CONPES 3093, Sistema de Servicio Publico Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogotá, seguimiento. Bogotá D.C., 15 de Noviembre 2000 y el proyecto presentado ante el Meth Panel de las Naciones Unidas BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV, se analiza según la guía metodología del marco conceptual del banco de proyectos exitosos de Lina María Castaño Mesa, las tres etapas que componen un proyecto que son: la pre-inversión: se analizo bajo el planteamiento del problema, beneficios y los objetivos que se esperan alcanzar; la etapa de inversión: se analiza lo que se ejecuto en el proyecto definitivo de acuerdo a lo planteado a la pre-inversión y operación: bajo a lo que actualmente está en la operación y si esta dando los beneficios que inicialmente se plantearon en el proyecto, que es lograr una reducción significativa de los gases que generan el Efecto Invernadero para así lograr la venta de lo CER´s.. Se puede concluir que la implementación de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio no a sido eficiente ya que no se cumplido con la infraestructura propuesta en la formulación del proyecto. FUENTES Se consultaron 16 referencias bibliográficas distribuidas así: sobre el tema ambiental y Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio 5 documentos de investigaciones y 1 libro; sobre TransMilenio CONPES 3093, proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, 4 investigaciones realizadas a TransMilenio por diferentes organismos y 2 paginas WEB de TransMilenio e IDU; sobre el tema de la metodología de la investigación 1 libro de gestion de proyectos y 1 documento de la CEPAL. CONTENIDO En el proceso de investigación se parte del desarrollo la Definición del Problema, los objetivos generales y específicos, la formulación de la hipótesis y la justificación de la presente investigación sobre los proyectos como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio en particular caso TransMilenio, para fundamentar el marco teórico se partió de la revisión bibliográfica y se hace una reseña del Efecto Invernadero, el Cambio Climático y el concepto de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), que se constituye la base general para la formulación de proyectos para hacer aprobados como MDL y que aporten a la reducción de gases que causan el Efecto Invernadero, también se hace referencia a la identificación de proyectos acordes con MDL y las acciones que se están llevando a cabo en Colombia frente a la conservación del Medio Ambiente. Sobre el caso TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio se hace referencia a todos los aspectos ambientales que tiene TransMilenio como la Política Ambiental en la cual fundamentan su practica ambiental con el entorno que la rodea y los aspectos principales de la

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descripción del proyecto que presentaron como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) ante Meth Panel de las Naciones Unidas para ser aprobado. Toda esta información para poder lograr los objetivos que se propusieron en la investigación que fueron como objetivo general: realizar un análisis de los Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio ejecutados e implementados por TransMilenio S.A., en la Fase II, y específicos: identificar la Política Nacional de Producción mas Limpia que define las acciones llevadas en pro del medio ambiente, determinar cuales han sido los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio implementados por el Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio durante la Fase II, implementar una metodología que permita el análisis de las etapas de preinversión, inversión y operación de los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio que se han llevado en el Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio de la Fase II y valorar el modelo propuesto para el análisis del Diagnostico utilizado en el proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. Para analizar la información y lograr los objetivos se realizo analizando las tres etapas de un proyecto que son la Preinversion, Inversion y Operación, bajo la guía metodológica del marco conceptual del banco de proyectos exitosos de Lina María Castaño Mesa CEPAL. METODOLOGIA: la metodología de la investigación se baso según la guía metodologíca del marco conceptual del banco de proyectos exitosos de Lina María Castaño Mesa, el cual indica que se debe tener por lo menos una información minima para llevar a cabo la evaluación del proyecto, definiendo las variables acordes según las etapas de Preinversión, Inversión y Operación, concretando las preguntas de acuerdo al estudio del proyecto, así se podrá brindar un análisis, con su respectiva justificación según la investigación realizada. Para llevar a cabo esta metodología se tuvo en cuenta las preguntas que se tiene como base en el banco de proyectos exitosos, las cuales fueron modificadas y adecuadas de acuerdo a la pertinencia del proyecto y a la información con la que se contó para analizar cada etapa del caso TransMilenio S.A. Fase II; cada criterio de cada etapa esta compuesto por tres partes que son: Preguntas de acuerdo a la etapa que se este analizando, puntaje que esta definido como deficiente, aceptable, bueno y sobresaliente y la justificación del criterio analizado. la calificación en la guía se toma cuantitativamente y en este trabajo se valora cualitativamente de acuerdo a la justificación, e investigación realizada por las autoras del proyecto. Dando una calificación final el cual se define como: deficiente, aceptable, bueno y sobresaliente. Los puntajes asignados se basan de acuerdo a la información que hay en este trabajo y como base fundamental el documento CONPES 3093, Sistema de Servicio Publico Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogotá, seguimiento. Bogotá D.C., 15 de Noviembre 2000 y el proyecto presentado ante el Meth Panel de las Naciones Unidas BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV y observación primaria ya que no fue posible concretar una entrevista con el

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departamento de Gestión ambiental que es el encargado de manejar este proceso en el sistema. CONCLUSIONES La puesta en marcha del Sistema de Transporte Masivo en la Ciudad ha sido un logro significativo en el mejoramiento del transporte público, debido a que este sistema utiliza sendas especializadas para su recorrido, estaciones para que el usuario acceda al servicio, generando una eficiencia en el desplazamiento y contribuyendo a mejorar la movilidad en la Ciudad; el ahorro en tiempo de viajes con mayor capacidad de transportar usuarios, se constituye en la variable que más aporta en la reducción de emisión de gases contaminantes, la cual esta variable se ve afectada por la falta de adecuación, diversos arreglos en la malla vial y terminación de infraestructura para el desplazamiento de los buses, generando así poca efectividad en la reducción de emisiones el cual es el objetivo del proyecto como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. Por otra parte la participación de empresas privadas en la prestación del servicio del Sistema de Transporte Masivo, contribuye al cumplimiento de las condiciones ambientales que TransMilenio como ente gestor, contempla para hacer más eficiente su gestión ambiental durante la operación, se ha observado que la calidad del aire en la ciudad ha mejorado notablemente en las vías más importantes de la ciudad, donde actualmente transita TransMilenio, pero este mejoramiento es opacado por la reasignación de rutas a vías no aptas para el transporte público afectando estas, con ruido, congestión y contaminación que antes no era usual en esas zonas. Los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio, constituyen una opción para que las empresas empiecen a generar proyectos que impliquen la implementación de procesos productivos y administrativos contribuyendo con el mejoramiento del medio ambiente.

ANEXO La investigación incluye 1 anexo. BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV.

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ANALISIS DE LA INVERSION DE LOS MECANISMOS DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO EN COLOMBIA “CASO TRANSMILENIO FASE II”

EDNA JULIETH LARA NATALIA RODRIGUEZ

DE SAN BUENAVENTURA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS EMPRESARIALES ADMINISTRACION DE NEGOCIOS BOGOTA D.C. MAYO 31 2008

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ANALISIS DE LA INVERSION DE LOS MECANISMOS DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO EN COLOMBIA “CASO TRANSMILENIO FASE II”

NATALIA RODRIGUEZ BOMBITA EDNA JULIETH LARA BAUTISTA

Trabajo para optar al Titulo de Administrador de Empresas

ASESOR ADMINISTRADOR FINANCIERO JULIO CESAR DUCON

DE SAN BUENAVENTURA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS EMPRESARIALES ADMINISTRACION DE NEGOCIOS BOGOTA D.C. MAYO 31 2008

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AGRADECIMIENTOS

Queremos expresar nuestros más sinceros agradecimientos a todas aquellas personas que nos aportaron y permitieron que fuera posible el desarrollo de este Trabajo para culminar con éxito nuestra carrera profesional. Agradecemos a nuestros padres por la tolerancia que siempre han tenido, pues sin su apoyo incondicional no hubiese sido posible cristalizar este sueño, para completar nuestra formación académica.

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TABLA DE CONTENIDO

INTRODUCCION Pág. CAPITULO 1 1.1. 1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.2 1.3

Tema de investigación Definición del Problema Objetivo General Objetivos Específicos Formulación de la Hipótesis Justificación

21 21 26 26 26 27

CAPITULO 2. 2.1 2.1.1 2.2. 2.3.

Marco Referencia Efecto Invernadero Cambio Climático Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio

29 29 30 31

CAPITULO 3. 3.1 3.2 3.3.

Acciones Frente al Calentamiento Global en Colombia La Política Nacional de Producción Más Limpia Sector Transporte y Mitigación del Cambio Climático

37 38 39

CAPITULO 4 4.1 4.1.2 4.2

Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio S.A. Política Ambiental de TransMilenio S.A. TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio

42 44 50

CAPITULO 5. Metodología para el Análisis del Ciclo del Proyecto 5.1 Ciclo del Proyecto 5.1.1 Etapa de la Preinversión 5.1.2 Etapa de Inversión 5.1.3. Etapa de Operación 5.2. Análisis Caso TransMilenio 5.2.1. Etapa de Preinversión en Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio Caso TransMilenio Fase II.

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54 54 55 57 58 58 60

5.2.2. 5.2.3

Etapa de Inversión en Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio Caso TransMilenio Fase II. Etapa de Operación en Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio Caso TransMilenio Fase II.

6.

Conclusiones.

7.

Referencias Bibliográficas.

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68 76

Lista de Tablas Pág. Tabla 1. Emisiones de GEI del sector transporte 2001 en Colombia Tabla 2. Carga de contaminante total emitida por el parque automotor en la ciudad de Bogotá. Tabla 3. Costos de Infraestructura del Sistema TransMilenio año 2000 en US$ mill. Tabla 4. Contribución del Sistema a la Sostenibilidad Ambiental Tabla 5. Emisiones Generadas en Gr. CO2 por los Medios de Transporte Tabla 6. Buses Chatarrizados del 2000 a Marzo de 2006 Tabla 7. Etapa Preinversión Tabla 8. Etapa inversión Tabla 9. Etapa Operación

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22 23 43 46 47 47 67 75 81

Lista de Gráficos Pág. Grafica 1. Efecto Invernadero Grafica 2. Ciclo del Proyecto MDL Grafico 3. Factores a tener en cuenta en la reducción de emisión de gases. Grafica 4. Mapa Fase II Transmilenio Grafica 5. Modelo Bus Transmilenio Grafica 6. Ciclo del Proyecto

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30 35 40 41 52 54

Lista de Anexos Anexo 1. BRT Bogota, Colombia: Transmilenio Phase II-IV

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Pág. 86

GLOSARIO

AUTORIDAD NACIONAL DESIGNADA: para participar en el MDL, un país anfitrión debe establecer una Autoridad Nacional Designada que tiene la responsabilidad de decidir si una actividad de proyecto tiene una contribución en el logro de los objetivos nacionales de desarrollo sostenible y si el país acepta que participe en el proyecto. CAF: Comunidad Andina de Fomento. CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO: Es el nombre dado al resultado del aumento de la temperatura planetaria entre 1.4°C y 5.8°C para el año 2100 debido a la mayor concentración de gases invernadero por las actividades antropogenias. CER´s: en sus siglas en inglés, Certified Emisions Reduction, o sea Reducciones Certificadas de Emisiones. CERTIFICACIÓN: es la seguridad dada por escrito por la entidad operacional designada de que durante un período determinado una actividad de proyecto ha conseguido las reducciones de emisiones antropógenas por las fuentes de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) que se han verificado. CONTAMINACIÓN: Se entiende por contaminación la adición de cualquier sustancia al ambiente en suficientes cantidades, que causen efectos mensurables o medibles sobre los seres humanos, los animales, la vegetación o los materiales y que se presenten en cantidades que sobrepasen los niveles normales de los que se encuentran en la naturaleza. CONVENCIÓN: es la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. CMNUCC: Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático CONVENCIÓN MARCO DE LAS NACIONES UNIDAS SOBRE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO: Es el Acuerdo tomado a la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Medio Ambiente y el Desarrollo en Río de Janeiro en 1992, que tiene por objetivo de estabilizar las concentraciones de gases a efecto invernadero en el atmósfera a un nivel que prevendrá peligrosos cambios en el clima. COP: Conferencia de la Partes. La última Conferencia de las Partes del Convenio Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático ha tenido lugar en Buenos Aires, Argentina del 6 al 17 de diciembre de 2004.

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DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE: Es el desarrollo que satisface las necesidades actuales de las personas sin comprometer la capacidad de las futuras generaciones para satisfacer las suyas. DIÓXIDO DE CARBONO (CO2): este gas se origina por la combustión, básicamente de combustibles fósiles tanto para el transporte como para la generación eléctrica, su aumento es consecuencia de la deforestación. EFECTO INVERNADERO: es la elevación de temperatura debida a que algunos gases presentes en la atmósfera, como el agua en vapor, el dióxido de carbono y el óxido nitroso, retienen naturalmente en parte el calor que la Tierra recibe del Sol. GASES DE EFECTO INVERNADERO: es uno o más de los seis gases listados en el Anexo A del Protocolo de Kyoto, o sea dióxido de carbono (CO2 ), metano (CH4), oxido nitroso (NOX), hidrofluorocarbonos (HFCs), perfluorocarbonos (PFCs) y hexafluoruro de azufre (SF6 ). GEI: Gases de efecto invernadero. GWP: Global Warming Potencial. GLOBAL WARMING POTENCIAL: Son factores que establecen la capacidad relativa de contribuir al efecto invernadero de cada uno de los gases de efecto invernadero IDU: Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano INVERSIÒN: es la aplicación de recursos con el fin de obtener un excedente IPCC: de sus siglas en inglés, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, o sea Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático. JUNTA EJECUTIVA: es el órgano de supervisón del MDL, bajo de la autoridad y dirección de la Conferencia de las Partes de la Convención, y es completamente responsable por la Conferencia de la Partes/Reunión de las Partes de la Convención frente a las leyes internacionales. Está compuesta por 10 miembros, un representante para cada una de las cinco regiones oficiales de las Naciones Unidas (África, Asia, América Latina y Caribe, Europa Central y Oriental, y OECD), uno para los estados en vía de desarrollo, y dos para los países Anexo I y no-Anexo I respectivamente. Su sede está en Bonn, Alemania. MAVDT: Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Desarrollo Territorial. MDL: Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio.

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MECANISMO DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO: es uno de los mecanismos cooperativos definido por el Artículo 12 del Protocolo de Kyoto. Permite proyectos de reducción de emisiones que propicien un desarrollo sostenible en los países en desarrollo y generen "reducciones certificadas de emisiones" para el uso del inversionista. METH PANEL: Organismo que se encarga de evaluar el proyecto presentado para ser aprobado como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. METANO (CH4): Es el principal componente del gas natural, se produce de forma natural en los procesos de descomposición. ÓXIDO NITROSO (N2O): principal fuente antropógena de este gas son la quema de biomasa y la producción y aplicación a la tierra de fertilizantes, básicamente en la producción de los ácidos díptico y nítrico. PAÍSES ANEXO I: incluye a países industrializados y con economías en transición (Federación de Rusia, los Estados Baltas, China y varios otros países de Europa Central y Oriental) que se comprometieron a limitar o disminuir sus emisiones de gases a efecto invernadero. PAÍSES NO ANEXO I: Son todos los países que firmaron el Protocolo de Kyoto sin ser país del Anexo I, o sea países en vía de desarrollo. PANEL INTERGUBERNAMENTAL SOBRE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO: fue establecido por la Organización Mundial de Meteorología y el Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente para determinar informaciones científica, técnica y socio-económica revelantes para el entendimiento del cambio climático, sus impactos potenciales y las opciones para la adaptación y mitigación. PNUMA: Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente. Con sede en Nairobi (Kenya) (primera oficina de la ONU radicada en un país en desarrollo). Fue creado en 1972 con el mandato de mantener la situación ambiental del planeta bajo revisión constante, con el fin de garantizar que los problemas ambientales de importancia internacional que se vayan presentando reciban de los gobiernos la consideración que merecen. El objetivo final del PNUMA es promover el desarrollo sostenible como método de gestión económica. PNPML: Política Nacional de Producción más Limpia. PERÍODO DE ACREDITACIÓN: es el tiempo por el cual el participante del proyecto puede vender sus CER´s, que él mismo definió antes del registro de la actividad de proyecto. POLÍTICA AMBIENTAL: Declaración por parte de la Organización de sus propósitos y principios en relación a su desempeño ambiental general, que

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constituye el marco de referencia para la acción y definición y sus objetivos y metas ambientales. POLÍTICA NACIONAL DE PRODUCCIÓN MÁS LIMPIA: da una respuesta a la solución de la problemática ambiental de los sectores productivos, en la búsqueda de prevenir la contaminación en su origen, en tratarla una vez generada, con resultados significativos para la construcción de sostenibilidad ambiental y competitividad empresarial. PROTOCOLO DE KYOTO: es el Protocolo adoptado por la Convención en la reunión de las Partes en Kyoto, Japón, el 10 de Diciembre de 1997, y es enmendado o implementado por consecuencia de las Conferencias de las partes o de otra manera. RCE: Reducción Certificadas de Emisiones REDUCCIÓN CERTIFICADAS DE EMISIONES: (RCE´s ò CER`s) en sus siglas en inglés): significa una unidad expedida en conformidad con el Artículo 12 del Protocolo de Kyoto y los requisitos que contiene, así como con las disposiciones pertinentes de las modalidades y procedimientos del MDL, corresponden a 1 tonelada métrica de dióxido de carbono equivalente, calculada usando los potenciales de calentamiento atmosférico definidos en la decisión 2/CP.3,con las modificaciones que posteriormente puedan ser objeto de conformidad con el Artículo 5 del Protocolo de Kyoto. SINA: Sistema Nacional Ambiental SOP: Secretaria de Obras Públicas (Hoy en día no existe). STM: Sistema Transporte Masivo STT: La Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte de Bogotá. (Hoy en día Secretaria de Movilidad Bogotá D.C.). TRANSMILENIO: Sistema de transporte masivo, que responde a la necesidad de ordenar el transporte público en la ciudad de Bogotá, al tiempo que ofrece una alternativa integral de desarrollo urbano. El sistema es administrado por la empresa TRANSMILENIO S.A. VAPOR DE AGUA (H2O): Gas que puede variar por la mayor evapotranspiración debido al cambio climático por el auge de la cogeneración y otros procesos industriales liberadores de vapor de agua.

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RESUMEN EJECUTIVO

En la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático Dentro del Protocolo de Kyoto, fue creada la estrategia de implementación de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio que genera expectativa por su contribución al financiar proyectos productivos y que contribuyan al desarrollo sostenible en países en vía de desarrollo con el objetivo de reducir las emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero. Bajo este contexto se describe el impacto que tiene el Efecto Invernadero sobre el Cambio Climático en el mundo, el cual deteriorando el medio ambiente y su biodiversidad, la estrategia de Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, se plantea para poder generar proyectos que sean aprobados bajo este concepto y que contribuyan eficientemente a la reducción de los gases que generan el Efecto Invernadero.

Se describe la Política Nacional de Producción mas Limpia que rige en Colombia, como marco para las empresas que empiezan a implementar procesos de producción administrativa para un mejor aprovechamiento de los recursos.

Se analiza el caso TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, tomando como base el documento CONPES 3093, Sistema de Servicio Publico Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogotá, seguimiento. Bogotá D.C., 15 de Noviembre 2000 y el proyecto presentado ante el Meth Panel de las Naciones Unidas BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV, se analiza bajo tres etapas metodológicas que son: la pre-inversión: se analizo bajo el planteamiento del problema, beneficios y los objetivos que se esperan alcanzar; la etapa de inversión: se analiza lo que se ejecuto en el proyecto definitivo de acuerdo a lo planteado a la pre-inversión y operación: bajo a lo que actualmente está en la operación y si esta dando los beneficios que inicialmente se plantearon en el proyecto, que es lograr una reducción significativa de los gases que generan el Efecto Invernadero para así lograr la venta de lo CER´s.

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ABSTRACT

In the Convention Marco of the United Nations for the Climatic Change inside the Protocol of Kyoto was created the strategy of implementation of Mechanisms of Clean Development that generates expectation for his contribution when financing productive projects and that they contribute to the sustainable development in countries in via of development with the objective of reducing the emissions of Gases of Effect Hothouse. Under this context the impact is described that has the Effect Hothouse on the Climatic Change in the world, the one which deteriorating the environment and its biodiversity, the strategy of Mechanism of Clean Development, thinks about to be able to generate projects that are approved under this concept and that they contribute efficiently to the reduction of the gases that you/they generate the Effect Hothouse.

The National Politics of Production is described but it cleans that governs in Colombia, like mark for the companies that begin to implement processes of administrative production for a better use of the resources.

The TransMilenio case is analyzed as Mechanism of Clean Development, taking as it bases document CONPES 3093, System on watch I publish Urban of Massive Transport of Passengers of Bogota, pursuit. Bogota D.C., 15 of November the 2000 and project presented/displayed before the Meth Panel of United Nations BRT Bogota, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV, is analyzed under three methodology stages that are: the pre-inversion: I analyze myself under the exposition of the problem, benefits and the objectives that are hoped to reach; the investment stage: it is analyzed what I execute myself in the definitive project according to raised to the pre-inversion and the operation: low to which at the moment it is in the operation and if this giving the benefits that initially considered in the project, that is to obtain a significant reduction of the gases that generate the Greenhouse effect thus to obtain the sale of the CER´s.

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INTRODUCCIÓN

El tema ambiental ha tomado gran importancia debido al deterioro del medio ambiente que vive la tierra y que cada vez es más evidente, teniendo como consecuencia la ocurrencia de múltiples fenómenos ambientales que deterioran la calidad de vida en el planeta, en especial por el efecto invernadero que se ha convertido en el gran protagonista de la problemática ambiental en el mundo.

Como consecuencia de esto, se han realizado varios encuentros mundiales para encontrar posibles soluciones y acordar acciones frente a problema de la contaminación ambiental, el más importante tuvo lugar en Rió de Janeiro (Brasil 1992), la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas para el Ambiente y el Desarrollo, donde se crea la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC), a fin de proteger el sistema climático mundial de los efectos de los Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI) y sus consecuencias sobre el calentamiento global, donde 150 países firmaron el marco del Protocolo de Kyoto (1997), una declaración de voluntades donde se proponen disminuciones obligatorias en las emisiones de Gases Efecto Invernadero (GEI).

Dentro del Protocolo de Kyoto, se encuentran tres mecanismos de flexibilidad entre ellos el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), este compromete a los países que firmaron el acuerdo a la reducción de emisión de gases, con la posibilidad de invertir en proyectos de reducción de emisiones en sectores como la industria, energético, transporte, forestal y residuos en países en vía de desarrollo recibiendo de esta forma certificados de emisión que servirán como suplemento a sus reducciones internas.

El país cuenta con sectores económicos que contribuyen la mayor parte al deterioro del ambiente, entre ellos el sector del transporte, debido al tipo de combustible que utiliza y bajo control en el mantenimiento de los vehículos. Estas circunstancias fueron unos de los aspectos que llevaron al diseño e implementación del "Sistema Integrado de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros para la Ciudad de Bogotá, Proyecto TransMilenio", que se fundamenta en principios de calidad de vida, de respeto al tiempo de los usuarios, costeabilidad y sostenibilidad.

A partir de la Fase II la empresa TransMilenio S.A., junto a la Comunidad Andina de Fomento (CAF) presentaron el proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) tomando como bases fundamentales: una infraestructura de conexión de troncales, un sistema de tarifa integrado, un

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sistema de dirección de buses (Operadores de Troncal y Alimentación), y la reducción de buses existente por buses de tecnologías eficientes que aportan al aspecto ambiental una mejor eficiencia en el desplazamiento y el uso de combustible con menos concentración de CO2, que contribuyen a la reducción de emisión de gases que contaminan el aire y poder demostrar una reducción real de los Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI) para poder llevar acabo una venta de Certificados de Emisión de (CER´s) a países que firmaron el Protocolo de Kyoto.

De acuerdo a lo anterior y como se verá en los capítulos posteriores, en este trabajo se lleva a cabo una descripción de la problemática ambiental que hay en la actualidad, las acciones que se están llevando acabo para la mitigación de la problemática y el análisis del caso “TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio “.

El trabajo está conformado por los siguientes capítulos: Capitulo 1. Tema de Investigación: donde se desarrolla la Definición del Problema, los objetivos generales y específicos, la formulación de la hipótesis y la justificación de la presente investigación.

Capitulo 2 – 3 Marco de referencia: 2) Donde se hace una reseña del Efecto Invernadero, el Cambio Climático y el concepto de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL). 3) Se hace referencia a las acciones que se están llevando a cabo en Colombia frente a la conservación del Medio Ambiente. Capitulo 4. Aspectos Ambientales del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio Fase II: se hace referencia a todos los aspectos ambientales que adopta TransMilenio y el proyecto que presentaron como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL). Capitulo 5. Análisis del Caso: donde se desarrolla la metodología que se empleará y el análisis de cómo se ha llevado a cabo la inversión en TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL).

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CAPITULO 1.

1.1. TEMA DE INVESTIGACIÓN 1.1.1 DEFINICIÓN DEL PROBLEMA El sistema de transporte público, durante décadas se ha destacado como uno de los grandes problemas para la ciudad de Bogotá, debido a su constante crecimiento demográfico y desarrollo económico, se evidencia la necesidad de nuevas construcciones en infraestructura vial, áreas residenciales y las actividades económicas que se llevan acabo en la capital del país.

En la ciudad de Bogotá, la “Troncal de la Caracas” se constituyó como primer proyecto en sistema de transporte masivo de carriles segregados para la ciudad, sobre la avenida que lleva el mismo nombre puesto que asignaba prioridad al transporte público sobre el privado. Se escogió esta avenida porque atraviesa la ciudad longitudinalmente, cubría una alta demanda, era la vía mas utilizada para realizar viajes en Bogotá y por ella transitaba un volumen importante de buses. El objeto para construcción, fue la organización del tráfico exclusivo para buses que agilizará su operación, disminuyera los tiempos de viaje, aumentara el nivel del servicio y redujera la contaminación. A su vez, se esperaba que contribuyera a recuperar el espacio público y a detener el deterioro urbano. Según los expertos El fracaso de la “Troncal Caracas” se debió en gran parte a la falta de coordinación de las entidades, cuando se presentó el proyecto se creó el Grupo Interinstitucional de Transporte y se desarrolló la idea de una nueva Autoridad Única de Transporte, las cuales no llegaron a consolidarse asumiendo finalmente el manejo y operación a entidades poco eficientes de transporte existentes en ese momento. Al no existir responsabilidades claras de quien debería asumir la administración y operación de la Troncal, las especificaciones de su funcionamiento empezaron a fallar, por ejemplo, el número de buses se incrementó en forma descontrolada y no se realizó el mantenimiento adecuado a la vía ni a su infraestructura. 2

La situación del transporte público antes de la puesta en marcha del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio era realmente caótica por la congestión que se presentaba en la ciudad sobretodo en las vías principales, el mal estado de la malla vial, la ineficiencia del transporte público que cuenta con automotores con una antigüedad promedio de 20 años o más, estaba llevando 2

Chaparro Irma. Evaluación del impacto económico del transporte urbano en la ciudad de Bogotá. El caso del sistema de transporte masivo, Transmilenio División de Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura Unidad de Transporte. NACIONES UNIDAS, CEPAL Santiago de Chile, octubre de 2002. Pág. 16 y 17

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progresivamente a la ciudad hacia el colapso y el bloqueo total, afectando de manera decidida la calidad de vida, el ambiente y la competitividad.

Las emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero del sector Transporte en el 2001 fueron de 19.600.000 toneladas de dióxido de carbono, 3.900 toneladas de metano y 150 toneladas de óxido nitroso. Ponderando las emisiones de cada uno de los Gases con los factores (GWP) de (IPCC). Las emisiones totales del sector transporte en 2001 fueron 19.736.000 toneladas equivalentes de CO2. 3 Tabla 1. Emisiones de GEI del sector transporte 2001 en Colombia Emisiones 2001 [toneladas/año]

Modo

CO2

CH4

N2O

Pasajeros privado Interurbano

1,260,167

353

11

Pasajeros Privado Urbano

3,400,319

960

29.7

Pasajeros Público Interurbano

1,820,960

443

15.7

Pasajeros Público Urbano

3,388,400

1,007

28.2

Carga Urbana

1,799,681

407

15.4

Carga Interurbana

4,757,705

632

39.7

16,426,946

3805

139.7

Aéreo

1,940,560

1.4

1.4

Fluvial

451,638

69

3.8

Marítimo

722,379

42

5

Ferroviario

65,134

3.7

0.5

19,606,944

3921.6

150.4

Total Carretero

Total Transporte

Fuente: Cifras de consumo de combustible y siguiendo la metodología recomendada por IPCC. Estrategia para la implementación de MDL en el sector Transporte Febrero de 2003. Pág.6.

3

Oficina Colombiana para la Mitigación del Cambio Climático - Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Desarrollo Territorial Ministerio de Transporte. Estrategia para la Implementación del Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio en el Sector Transporte. Bogotá D.C., Febrero 2003 Pág. 6.

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Tabla 2. Carga de contaminante total emitida por el parque automotor en la ciudad de Bogotá.

Tipo de Vehículo

Volumen de carga contaminante [toneladas/año 2000- 2009]

Cantidad

CO

SOX

NOX

549350

523,475.33

1,622.76

14.469,61

Bus

22525

165,734.68

700,84

3.786,35

Buseta

15364

105.393,69

445,68

2.407,81

Camión

41923

295.103,41

1.470,72

7.364,26

Campero

102669

82.922,24

257.06

2.292,24

Camioneta

124743

105.194,43

326,10

2.907,73

Microbús

8713

38.364,84

186,40

1.034,13

Tracto-Camab.

2762

19.261,16

95,99

480,66

Volqueta

4771

18.758,91

79,33

428,56

Otros

228

3.348,58

9,91

80,84

1.357.557

5.195

35.252

Automóvil

Total Transporte

873.048

Fuente: Plan de Gestión del Aire para el Distrito Capital 2000-2009. Cap3.Pág. 120

Desde el Plan de Desarrollo 1998–2018, denominado “Por la Bogotá que queremos” bajo la administración del Alcalde Enrique Peñalosa, el objetivo del plan es generar un cambio profundo en la manera de vivir de los ciudadanos, devolviéndoles la confianza para construir un futuro mejor y dinamizar el progreso social, cultural y económico.

El plan de desarrollo está estructurado con base en 7 prioridades y 5 proyectos prioritarios, una de las prioridades es establecer un sistema de transporte que asegure la disminución en los tiempos de viaje y proporcione un servicio digno, confortable y eficiente, para el entorno urbano mejorando la calidad de vida.

La estrategia de movilidad de esa administración apuntaba al mejoramiento general de la calidad de vida de la población capitalina mediante la constitución y puesta en funcionamiento de un sistema de transporte público único e integrado, la construcción de ciclo-rutas, la ampliación, adaptación y mejoramiento de la malla vial, que conecten con áreas importantes de la ciudad, como parques y avenidas, dando así un carácter de sistema de transporte integral para la ciudad, el fortalecimiento y tecnificación de la administración y el manejo del tráfico urbano. La estrategia involucraba acciones de tipo correctivo, actividades de planeación que permitieran anticiparse al rápido crecimiento de la ciudad y acciones encaminadas a

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cambiar hábitos y actitudes de los bogotanos. El desarrollo, ejecución y funcionamiento de ese proyecto fue distribuido entre cuatro organismos del Distrito según reglamentación local y conforme a la legislación nacional. Ellos son, el Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano, (IDU) la Secretaría de Obras Públicas (SOP), la Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte de Bogotá (STT) y la empresa TransMilenio S.A.

El sistema de Trasporte Masivo TransMilenio, durante su estudio se planteó varios objetivos entre los cuales están: Mayor eficiencia energética en los ahorros en combustible, reducción de la contaminación, desarrollo tecnológico en la prestación de servicios de transporte público urbano y aumentar la eficiencia y productividad del transporte público en Bogotá, al igual que se hicieron una serie de evaluaciones de impacto físico-espacial, impacto técnico– económico e impacto socio–ambiental, que este último está enfocado fundamentalmente en la reducción de los gases contaminantes, que está estimado en un 80%, resultado de la introducción de vehículos, con mejores especificaciones técnicas y ambientales.4

A partir de la Fase II (2003-2006) del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio S.A. y la Comunidad Andina de Fomento (CAF)5 presentaron el proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio ante el Meth Panel, (organismo ante el cual se presentan los proyectos para la implementación de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio para su aprobación), ya que el país no es ajeno a la problemática del cambio climático y en efecto de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC), a fin de proteger el sistema climático mundial de de los Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEl) y sus consecuencias sobre el calentamiento global, se estableció el Protocolo de Kyoto en el cual se dispuso tres mecanismos de flexibilidad cuyo objetivo es facilitar a los países industrializados a reducir la emisiones de gases los cuales son:

• Mecanismo de Implementación Conjunta. • Comercio de Derechos de Emisión. • Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL). 6

4

Chaparro Irma, Evaluación del Impacto socioeconómico de transporte urbano en la ciudad de Bogotá. El caso del sistema de transporte masivo, Transmilenio. División de Recursos naturales e Infraestructura. Unidad de Transporte, Naciones Unidad – CEPAL. Santiago de Cali, octubre de 2002 Pág. 21-27 5 Es una institución financiera multilateral que apoya el desarrollo sostenible de sus países accionistas y la integración regional. 6 Organización de Naciones Unidas. Protocolo de Kyoto Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidad sobre el Cambio Climático. 1998

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El presente trabajo tendrá como base los Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), que tienen como objetivo fundamental centrarse en los logros del desarrollo sostenible en los países en vía de desarrollo, dando la posibilidad a los países industrializados de transferir tecnologías limpias, mediante inversiones en proyectos de reducción de emisiones o sumideros, uso de energía limpia; recibiendo de esta forma certificados de emisión que servirán como suplemento a sus reducciones internas.

En el sector del transporte existen diferentes opciones para la reducción de gases de efecto invernadero en el sector de transporte, entre ellas mejorar la calidad de vehículos, la sustitución de combustibles, la implementación de un Sistema de Transporte Masivo y la construcción de infraestructura para mejorar la eficiencia del transporte.

La implementación de los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), comprende prácticas de Producción más Limpia que hace necesario la ejecución de una estrategia ambiental que integre todos los procesos de la operación, para reducir los riesgos a los seres humanos y el medio ambiente, lo que lleva a desarrollar una serie de acciones y medidas dirigidas a garantizar la eficiencia de los recursos, previniendo la generación de partículas de contaminación que contribuyan al aumento de los Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI).

De acuerdo a lo descrito anteriormente se plantea el problema con la siguiente pregunta: ¿ Como ha sido desarrollada la implementación de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio, realizadas por el Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio en la Fase II al mejoramiento de las condiciones ambientales de la ciudad de Bogotá?

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1.1.2 OBJETIVO GENERAL

Realizar un análisis de los Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio ejecutados e implementados por TransMilenio S.A., en la Fase II.

1.1.3 OBJETIVOS ESPECIFICOS

a)

Identificar la Política Nacional de Producción mas Limpia que define las acciones llevadas en pro del medio ambiente.

b)

Determinar cuales han sido los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio implementados por el Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio durante la Fase II.

c)

Implementar una metodología que permita el análisis de las etapas de preinversión, inversión y operación de los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio que se han llevado en el Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio de la Fase II.

d)

Valorar el modelo propuesto para el análisis del Diagnostico utilizado en el proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio.

1.2 FORMULACION DE LA HIPOTESIS Los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), implementados a través de la Fase II del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio, han presentado un alto nivel de efectividad, contribuyendo de esta manera al mejoramiento de la calidad ambiental en la ciudad de Bogotá.

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1.3 JUSTIFICACIÓN Como estudiantes de la Universidad de San Buenaventura la formación académica se identifica con tres dimensiones; ser universitario, ser católico y ser franciscano, las cuales contribuyen a una formación integral comprometiéndose en una relación directa al servicio por la sociedad, formando profesionales éticos y comprometidos con su desarrollo ante la responsabilidad social frente a la comunidad, país y el medio ambiente.

Dado que la Universidad considera de gran importancia la investigación como necesaria para el desarrollo de una cultura científica, fundamento del progreso económico, industrial y social del país, que la plantea desde la misión y las líneas de investigación que establece, se considera importante la formación investigativa en la institución que debe ser una actividad presente en todos los espacios del quehacer de docentes y estudiantes, para el desarrollo de la ciencia y la tecnología en las disciplinas para la solución de problemas.

La Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales tiene como responsabilidad ofrecer una formación que les provea elementos de desarrollo como seres íntegros, autónomos, responsables y concientes de su ser social. La formación en investigación constituye un elemento importante dentro del plan de estudio que busca desarrollar en los estudiantes actitudes y aptitudes para el que hacer investigativo, de acuerdo esto define las líneas de investigación en dos dimensiones: Desarrollo Económico y Social y Gestión ambiental, que apoyará principalmente a los proyectos de investigación que contribuyan con el mejoramiento y la obtención de calidad de vida y desarrollo humano y social, lo cual lo define en su objetivo “Recoger el debate de la preservación ambiental y su sostenibilidad para mostrar nuevas formas de pensar e instrumentar el desarrollo sostenible y del medio ambiente y social atendiendo a la especificidad ecológica, la pluralidad cultural y la capacidad tecnológica regional y local.”7

Esta investigación se escogió por que el tema ambiental en este momento ha tomado gran relevancia debido a los fenómenos ambientales y climáticos que se han venido presentando en el mundo, gran parte de estos se debe a la contaminación y deforestación que se generan en las ciudades por parte de las industrias en los procesos de producción. En la mayoría de estas industrias no tienen un control ambiental para emisión de gases y desecho de residuos contaminantes.

En Colombia por parte de varias instituciones gubernamentales, en especial el Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Desarrollo Territorial (MAVDT), han 7

Lineamientos de Investigación el la Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales. Universidad de San Buenaventura

27

generado instrumentos para que las organizaciones empiecen a tomar parte más activa en responsabilidad ambiental, como en el caso de estudio de esta investigación, el Sistemas de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio el cual tiene como aspecto medioambiental la implementación de prácticas ambientales para lograr una eficacia en la operación para así mejorar la calidad de aire en la ciudad.

Lo cual se identifica con la línea de investigación de Medio ambiente y desarrollo sostenible, se considera como prioridad generar propuestas de solución a problemáticas que se presentan en la empresas, como en los procedimientos de planeación, control y dirección según el comportamiento del sector; en este caso, sería el compromiso de implementar técnicas de producción limpia, para contribuir a la reducción de emisiones de CO2 teniendo en cuenta aspectos como la infraestructura, desarrollo tecnológico, Sistemas de Gestión de Calidad y factores económicos, para llevar a cabo este tipo de proyectos que contribuyan con estas reducciones para que sean efectivas y ofrezcan beneficios para una mejor la calidad de vida.

Lograr una conciencia ambiental exige que las organizaciones garanticen y se comprometan a aprovechar los medios y transformar los bienes, con precaución, con sentido ambiental, económico y social, De ahí la necesidad de enfrentar esta problemática por medio del quehacer científico y el análisis de las problemáticas de gestión y planificación ambiental para encontrar caminos que puedan ayudar a resolverla.

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CAPITULO 2. 2.1

MARCO REFERENCIA

2.1.1 EFECTO INVERNADERO El efecto invernadero es un proceso natural debido a que la atmósfera del planeta está compuesta por muchos gases, entre los más abundantes son el nitrógeno, el oxígeno, los cuales son llamados Gases de Invernadero (GEI) los principales gases que lo componen son el dióxido de carbono (CO2), el metano (CH4), el óxido nitroso (N2O), los halofluorocarbonos (HFC), los perfluorocarbonos (PFC), y el hexafluoruro de azufre (SF6).

Además, está el vapor de agua (H2O) que se encuentra de forma natural en la atmósfera. Estos gases absorben la energía infrarroja en la atmósfera creando un ambiente más cálido (la energía del Sol queda atrapada por los gases, del mismo modo en que el calor queda atrapado detrás de los vidrios de un invernadero), si no existieran los Gases de Efecto Invernadero, el planeta sería cerca de 30 grados más frío de lo que es ahora en estas condiciones, probablemente la vida nunca hubiera podido desarrollarse8, como se puede observar en la Grafica 1.

8

Naciones Unidas. Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Territorial. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Universita Tuscia. Controlando el Cambio Climático y Protegiendo el Medio Ambiente. Bogota D.C. Colombia, Mayo de 2007 P40.

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Grafica 1. Efecto Invernadero

Fuente: Controlando el Cambio Climático y Protegiendo el Medio Ambiente. Bogota D.C. Colombia, Mayo de 2007 Pág. 7.

El aumento de la concentración de estos gases en la Tierra, se ve evidenciado en los fenómenos climáticos, como aumento de sequías, aumento de la temperatura, descongelamiento de los casquetes polares y otras series de cambios climáticos, los cuales se originan por los Gases de Efecto Invernadero que en su mayoría son causados por las prácticas industriales y el mal manejo de los recursos naturales.

2.2. CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO.

El tercer y hasta ahora último informe del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC), un organismo de Naciones Unidas compuesto por científicos de todos los países que desde los años ochenta investiga el cambio climático, sus causas, sus consecuencias y las medidas para hacerle frente, advierte: las temperaturas medias globales aumentarán entre 1.4ºC y 5,8ºC, los expertos coinciden en que un incremento superior a 2ºC tendría consecuencias imprevisibles y catastróficas, el nivel del mar subirá, habrá menos precipitaciones, menos recursos hídricos y se intensificarán los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos.9 9

Nieto Sainz Joaquín, Cambio Climático y protocolo de Kyoto: efectos sobre el empleo, la salud y el medio ambiente. Mayo 28 No 822 Pág. 25.

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De estas circunstancias el pronostico del clima en la Tierra se hace mas difícil de predecir porque existen muchos factores para tener en cuenta como la lluvia, luz solar, vientos, temperatura, debido a estos no se puede definir exactamente qué tan drástico sería los cambios climáticos que afectarán al planeta.

Debido a estos fenómenos que se han venido presentando para hacerle frente a esta problemática, en 1992, las Naciones Unidas realizaron la Primera Convención sobre el Cambio Climático y dieron a conocer las consecuencias de este fenómeno durante la Cumbre de la Tierra, realizada en Río de Janeiro, Brasil, en 1992. El acuerdo fue firmado por 154 países el cual se planteó, la necesidad de frenar el cambio climático, reduciendo las emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI), lo que significa disminuir la cantidad de combustibles fósiles utilizados (petróleo, gas natural, carbón), y proteger los bosques (ellos atrapan y consumen el dióxido de carbono), también significa disminuir el consumo de energía, y buscar otras fuentes energéticas que no produzcan Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI).

La Convención promueve el estudio y la investigación científica, para descubrir nuevas formas de acabar con el efecto invernadero. También se plantea la necesidad de intercambiar tecnología e ideas entre los países, promoviendo ayuda mutua, además, se reconoce que existen áreas en el mundo que son muy especiales y delicadas (islas, montañas, ríos) y que deben ser especialmente protegidas de los cambios en el clima. En consecuencia se programo la reunión en Kyoto, Japón del 1 al 10 de diciembre de 1997, con ciento sesenta países (160), para discutir sobre los cambios climáticos de la Tierra y establecer acciones frente a ella asumiendo el compromiso de reducción de los Gases de Efecto Invernadero.10 2.3. MECANISMO DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO

Se entiende como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), lograr mediante inversión en proyectos que contribuyan a un desarrollo sostenible en los países en vía de desarrollo, así como lograr aportar a la mitigación y el cumplimiento de objetivos de estabilización de Gases de Efecto Invernadero, de acuerdo con las regulaciones del Protocolo de Kyoto.

En el Protocolo de Kyoto, artículo 12 se establece la definición y el propósito para la reducción de emisión de gases bajo el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio así: 10

Ministerio del Ambiente – oficina colombiana para la mitigación del cambio climático unidad de planeación minero energético, Plan de trabajo para el mecanismo de desarrollo limpio, Pág. 17, Octubre de 2002.

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Artículo 1211 1. Por el presente se define un mecanismo para un desarrollo limpio. 2. El propósito del mecanismo para un desarrollo limpio es ayudar a las Partes no incluidas en el (anexo I)12 a lograr un desarrollo sostenible y contribuir al objetivo último de la Convención, así como ayudar a las Partes incluidas en el anexo I a dar cumplimiento a sus compromisos cuantificados de limitación y reducción de las emisiones contraídos en virtud del (artículo 3)13. 3. En el marco del mecanismo para un desarrollo limpio: a) Las Partes no incluidas en el anexo I se beneficiarán de las actividades de proyectos que tengan por resultado reducciones certificadas de las emisiones. b) Las Partes incluidas en el anexo I podrán utilizar las reducciones certificadas de emisiones resultantes de esas actividades de proyectos para contribuir al cumplimiento de una parte de sus compromisos cuantificados de limitación y reducción de las emisiones contraídos en virtud del artículo 3, conforme lo determine la Conferencia de las Partes en calidad de reunión de las Partes en el presente Protocolo. 4. El mecanismo para un desarrollo limpio estará sujeto a la autoridad y la dirección de la Conferencia de las Partes en calidad de reunión de las

11

Protocolo de Kyoto de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas Sobre el Cambio Climático. Naciones Unidas 1998. Pág. 13. 12

. ANEXO I (El objetivo global del 5% para los países desarrollados debe conseguirse mediante recortes (con respecto a los niveles de 1990) del 8% en la Unión Europea (UE [15]), Suiza y la mayor parte de los países de Europa central y oriental; 6% en el Canadá; 7% en los Estados Unidos (aunque posteriormente los Estados Unidos han retirado su apoyo al Protocolo), y el 6% en Hungría, Japón y Polonia. Nueva Zelandia, Rusia y Ucrania deben estabilizar sus emisiones, mientras que Noruega puede aumentarlas hasta un 1%, Australia un 8% (posteriormente retiró su apoyo al Protocolo) e Islandia un 10%. La UE ha establecido su propio acuerdo interno para alcanzar su objetivo del 8% distribuyendo diferentes porcentajes entre sus Estados Miembros. Estos objetivos oscilan entre recortes del 28% en Luxemburgo y del 21% en Dinamarca y Alemania a un aumento del 25% en Grecia y del 27% en Portugal.) 13

ARTICULO 3 Numeral 1 Protocolo de Kyoto de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas Sobre el Cambio Climático. Naciones Unidas 1998. Pág. 3. Las Partes incluidas en el anexo I se asegurarán, individual o conjuntamente, de que sus emisiones antropógenas agregadas, expresadas en dióxido de carbono equivalente, de los gases de efecto invernadero enumerados en el anexo A no excedan de las cantidades atribuidas a ellas, calculadas en función de los compromisos cuantificados de limitación y reducción de las emisiones consignados para ellas en el anexo B y de conformidad con lo dispuesto en el presente artículo, con miras a reducir el total de sus emisiones de esos gases a un nivel inferior en no menos de 5% al de 1990 en el período de compromiso comprendido entre el año 2008 y el 2012.

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Partes en el presente Protocolo y a la supervisión de una junta ejecutiva del mecanismo para un desarrollo limpio. 5. La reducción de emisiones resultante de cada actividad de proyecto deberá ser certificada por las entidades operacionales que designe la Conferencia de las Partes en calidad de reunión de las Partes en el presente Protocolo sobre la base de: a) La participación voluntaria acordada por cada Parte participante; b) Unos beneficios reales, mensurables y a largo plazo en relación con la mitigación del cambio climático. c) Reducciones de las emisiones que sean adicionales a las que se producirían en ausencia de la actividad de proyecto certificada. 6. El mecanismo para un desarrollo limpio ayudará según sea necesario a organizar la financiación de actividades de proyectos certificadas. 7. La Conferencia de las Partes en calidad de reunión de las Partes en el presente Protocolo en su primer período de sesiones deberá establecer las modalidades y procedimientos que permitan asegurar la transparencia, la eficiencia y la rendición de cuentas por medio de una auditoria y la verificación independiente de las actividades de proyectos. 8. La Conferencia de las Partes en calidad de reunión de las Partes en el presente Protocolo se asegurará de que una parte de los fondos procedentes de las actividades de proyectos certificadas se utilice para cubrir los gastos administrativos y ayudar a las Partes que son países en desarrollo particularmente vulnerables a los efectos adversos del cambio climático a hacer frente a los costos de la adaptación. 9. Podrán participar en el mecanismo para un desarrollo limpio, en particular en las actividades mencionadas en el inciso a) del párrafo 3 supra y en la adquisición de unidades certificadas de reducción de emisiones, entidades privadas o públicas, y esa participación quedará sujeta a las directrices que imparta la junta ejecutiva del mecanismo para un desarrollo limpio. 10. Las reducciones certificadas de emisiones que se obtengan en el período comprendido entre el año 2000 y el comienzo del primer período de compromiso podrán utilizarse para contribuir al cumplimiento en el primer período de compromiso14.

Su objetivo es ayudar a los países desarrollados a cumplir con sus obligaciones y a avanzar hacia un desarrollo sostenible a los países en vía de desarrollados. Para ello, los países ricos pueden usar las Reducciones Certificadas de 14

Protocolo de Kyoto de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas Sobre el Cambio Climático. Naciones Unidas 1998. Pág.14.

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Emisiones (adicionales a las que habría sin el proyecto) que se obtengan en el período entre el año 2000 y el comienzo del primer período de compromiso para contribuir al cumplimiento en el período 2008-2012 (permitiendo, por tanto, la acumulación de las reducciones por parte de los países del Anexo I). Sin embargo, estos proyectos deben cumplir, además, con los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible establecidos por el país anfitrión.

El Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) brinda a los países y empresas un motivo importante para contribuir financieramente a las medidas de reducción de los Gases Efecto Invernadero (GEI) y en proyectos de captación ó “secuestro de CO2 y fijación de carbono” (proyectos forestales o sumideros) en los países en vía de desarrollo con el propósito de que estos proyectos den como resultado un desarrollo sostenible, según lo definido por el país anfitrión y que sea implementados en forma en una forma ambientalmente benigna. A cambio los países inversionistas reciben “Certificados de Reducción de Emisiones”.

Las pautas que se deben tener en cuenta para que un proyecto sea aprobado como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio son las siguientes:

•

Participantes:

Los participantes serán involucrados en el proceso de desarrollo, aprobación y ejecución del Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) 15 así: Proponente del Proyecto: Es una entidad, como empresa o ONG local que desarrolla y ejecuta un proyecto de Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL). Comprador de Certificados de Reducción de Emisiones (CERs): Es una empresa que invierte en el proyecto o compra los CERs generados por el mismo. En algunos casos el comprador puede también invertir en el proyecto mediante un financiamiento convencional y desempeñar en rol protagonista en su desarrollo con el proponente, recibiendo retornos económicos además de los CERs. En otros casos, es posible que la empresa simplemente compre los CERs. Gobierno del país anfitrión: Es el país en vía de desarrollo en el cual se desarrolla el proyecto de Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL). El país anfitrión es responsable de asegurar que el proyecto cumpla con los criterios de desarrollo sostenible, que no tenga impactos ambientales negativos y que los actores locales hayan sido consultados. 15

Instituto PEMBINA. Cambio Climático: El Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL): Perspectiva Internacional e Implicaciones para la Región de América Latina y el Caribe. Organización Latinoamericana de Energía (OLADE), Agencia Canadiense para el Desarrollo Internacional (ACDI) y Universidad de Calgary. Agosto de 2004 Pág. 5.

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Junta ejecutiva de Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL): Es el organismo supervisor del MDL, que responde a la Conferencia de las Partes (COP) y vigila la implementación del MDL hasta la ratificación del Protocolo de Kyoto. La junta directiva fue elegida durante la COP 7 y comprende 10 miembros signatarios del Protocolo, que representan a varios bloques económicos. La junta ha nombrado un Panel Metodológico y un equipo de expertos internacionales para apoyar en las aprobaciones de los proyectos MDL y afinar las normas de Marakech. Entidad operativa designada: Es una entidad legal autónoma, designada para verificar la elegibilidad de los proyectos para Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) y validar la reducción de emisiones a partir de las actividades MDL. La entidad operativa designada es acreditada por la Junta Ejecutiva, ante quien reporta. Los proponentes del proyecto pueden elegir su entidad operacional designada en una lista que posee la junta directiva. Para la aprobación de un proyecto como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, el ciclo16 que se lleva a cabo se muestra en la Grafica 2: Grafica 2. CICLO DEL PROYECTO MDL

FORMULACIÓN

VALIDACIÓN

REGISTRO

APROBACIÓN MONITOREO EXPEDICION DE RCE

VERIFICACIÓN CERTIFICACIÓN

Fuente: Controlando el Cambio Climático y protegiendo el medio ambiente Pág. 17.

1. Aprobación del país anfitrión: El proponente remite el proyecto a la autoridad nacional designada en el país anfitrión para su aprobación y confirmación de que el proyecto contribuye al desarrollo sostenible, que se ha realizado un estudio ambiental, y que los actores han sido consultados. 16

Instituto PEMBINA. Cambio Climático: El Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL): Perspectiva Internacional e Implicaciones para la Región de América Latina y el Caribe. Organización Latinoamericana de Energía (OLADE), Agencia Canadiense para el Desarrollo Internacional (ACDI) y Universidad de Calgary. Agosto de 2004 Pág. 6.

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2. Validación: El diseño del proyecto deberá ser evaluado por la entidad operacional designada respecto a los requisitos de validación del Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL). 3. Registro: El proyecto valido debe ser formalmente aceptado por la Junta Ejecutiva, con base en las recomendaciones de la entidad operativa designado. Un proyecto registrado debe especificar un comprador de los Certificados de Reducción de Emisiones (CER´s) de entre los países del Anexo 1, de manera que el proyecto pueda ser registrado según los compromisos de Kyoto. 4. Verificación: Una vez iniciado el proyecto Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), las reducciones monitoreadas que se producen como resultado del proyecto, deben ser revisadas periódicamente por la entidad operativa designada. 5. Certificación: La entidad operativa designada debe emitir una garantía escrita, confirmada por la Junta Directiva, de que el proyecto Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) ha logrado reducciones verificadas de las emisiones. Entonces, los Certificados de Reducción de Emisiones (CER´s) son asignados al país del Anexo 1 en el cual se ubica el comprador de los mismos17.

Los beneficios que brinda esta alternativa para los participantes y proponentes involucrados en el proyecto, se pueden evidenciar en el orden que se tiene para la aprobación, desde la formulación del proyecto hasta la validación del mismo, ya que los entes cuentan con la suficiente competencia para la aprobación de dichos proyectos los cuales deben cumplir con el objetivo principal que es contribuir a la reducción de gases que causan el Efecto Invernadero.

17

Instituto PEMBINA. Cambio Climático: El Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL): Perspectiva Internacional e Implicaciones para la Región de América Latina y el Caribe. Organización Latinoamericana de Energía (OLADE), Agencia Canadiense para el Desarrollo Internacional (ACDI) y Universidad de Calgary. Agosto de 2004 Pág. 6.

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CAPITULO 3

3.1 ACCIONES FRENTE AL CALENTAMIENTO GLOBAL EN COLOMBIA

El Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Desarrollo Territorial (MAVDT), ha creado un Grupo de Mitigación de Cambio Climático con el objetivo de promover el desarrollo sostenible e identificar los proyectos acordes con Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), que sean viables y se pueda trabajar desde todos los sectores de la economía, con la ayuda de acuerdos bilaterales en el Marco del Protocolo de Kyoto que son importantes para contribuir al desarrollo exitoso de los proyectos en el país, ya que se encuentran en funcionamiento proyectos de este tipo de inversión y algunos cuentan con negociaciones de Certificado de Reducción de Emisión de Gases, algunos de estos proyectos son18:

• Parque Eólico Jepirachi. Uribia, Guajira. 19.5 Megavatios (MW). Contrato de compra, la Red Ciudadana de Europa (RCE) por US$ 3.2 M con el Fondo Prototipo de Carbono (PCF). • Hidroeléctrica Río Amoyá (filo de agua). Chaparral, Tolima. 78 Megavatios (MW). Contrato compra de las Red Ciudadana de Europa (RCE) por US$ 21.2 M con el gobierno Holandés. • Hidroeléctrica Agua Fresca. Jericó, Antioquia. 7.4 Megavatios (MW) Contrato de compra con la Red Ciudadana de Europa (RCE) en negociación. • Hidroeléctricas La Vuelta-La Herradura. Antioquia. 31.5 Megavatios (MW) Contra de compra con la Red Ciudadana de Europa (RCE) en negociación. • TransMilenio. Bogotá. Acuerdo de compra — venta firmada con la Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) Desarrollo de metodología. Aprobación por parte del Meth panel (Methodology Panel)19. Dentro del documento Plan de Trabajo para el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) de Octubre 2002, publicado por Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, ha desarrollado muestras, como el mecanismo de “compensación” de emisiones se podría convertir en una fuente de inversión extranjera y de divisas de gran potencial para países como Colombia y los países industrializados podrán 18

Charry Ruiz José Francisco. Oportunidades ambientales y económicas para Bogotá, derivadas de la Mitigación del cambio climático, Pág. 22. Documento del Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Territorial 2004 19

Organismo que aprueba los proyectos presentados que se basan en la implementación de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio.

37

Invertir en proyectos de reducción o captura de emisiones en sectores como energía, industria, transporte, agricultura, manejo de residuos y bosques. Teniendo en cuenta el potencial que ofrece el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) para países en vía de desarrollo.

El Ministerio ha desarrollado una serie de actividades que permite la implementación de los mecanismos que menciona el Protocolo de Kyoto, dentro de estos se encuentran el estudio de la estrategia para la Implementación de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), el desarrollo de un portafolio de proyectos forestales de captura de CO2, y numerosas actividades de divulgación y capacitación, concretados dentro del documento, su objetivo es identificar, caracterizar, priorizar y divulgar las oportunidades de proyectos de reducción de emisiones en los diferentes sectores económicos, con el fin de promover y facilitar la formulación y ejecución de proyectos elegibles al Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. 20 3.2 LA POLÍTICA NACIONAL DE PRODUCCIÓN MÁS LIMPIA

En el país, se ha tratado de introducir el concepto en la formulación de las políticas que orientan el desarrollo económico y la producción, para que desde allí sea adoptado por todas las empresas de los sectores de la producción y los servicios, con el objeto final de reducir los niveles de contaminación ambiental.

En este aspecto, el instrumento elaborado es la Política Nacional de Producción más limpia (PNPML) formulada y aprobada en 1997, la producción limpia se difundió a nivel mundial por el Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA) establecido en 1989; definida como la “aplicación continua de una estrategia ambiental, preventiva, integrada y aplicada a procesos, productos y servicios para mejorar la eco-eficiencia y reducir los riesgos para los humanos y el medio ambiente” 21.

En Colombia para implementar el desarrollo de la producción limpia, se empezó a establecer por medio del Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, ya que este proporciona las herramientas necesarias que permitan al sector privado formular y ejecutar planes de acción encaminados al cumplimiento de metas ambientales, consolidándolo mas adelante con la Política Nacional de Producción más Limpia (PNPML). 20

Ministerio del Ambiente – oficina Colombiana para la Mitigación del Cambio Climático unidad de planeación minero energético, Plan de trabajo para el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, Octubre 21 de 2002 Pág.2. 21

Contraloría General de la Nación. Estado de los Recursos Naturales y del Ambiente 2003204 Colombia. Julio del 2004 Pág. 23.

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Por medio de la Política Nacional de Producción más Limpia (PNPML), se da una respuesta a la solución de la problemática ambiental previniendo, minimizando los impactos y riesgos tanto a los seres humanos como al medio ambiente; garantizando una protección ambiental, crecimiento económico, bienestar social y competitividad empresaria, teniendo como en cuenta como objetivo optimizar los recursos y materias primas, por medio de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías y practicas de mejoramiento continuo de la gestión ambiental, una vez generada esta política con resultados significativos se puede empezar a establecer estrategias en un sistema de calidad ambiental sostenible permitiendo generar competitividad empresarial. 3.3 SECTOR TRANSPORTE Y MITIGACIÓN DEL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO

El sector del transporte, es uno de los que más contribuyen a la contaminación de aire por el tipo de combustible que utiliza y bajo control en el mantenimiento de los vehículos. Las emisiones totales de gases de cualquier vehículo se calculan en base a tres factores: la distancia recorrida, la cantidad de combustible usado para recorrer esa distancia y la cantidad de carbono que contiene el combustible, por esto un Sistema de Transporte Masivo en la ciudad ayudaría a bajar los niveles de CO2 que se emiten al aire debido a los siguientes aspectos: • • •

•

Selección de tecnología de punta costo eficiente y ambientalmente más limpia para la operación del sistema. Determinación de una tipología de los buses, Infraestructura de soporte y facilidades. Regulación de los Operadores: Diseño y aplicación de mecanismos de control y seguimiento al desempeño ambiental y operacional de los buses. Gestión para el abastecimiento de combustibles más limpios.

De acuerdo a lo planteado, para que un Sistema de Transporte Masivo dé los resultados para el mejoramiento de la calidad de aire reduciendo la emisión de gases que ocasionan el Efecto Invernadero, se debe tener en cuenta factores 22 que se muestran en la Grafica 3.

22

Mesa temática interinstitucional de Bogotá DC. Estabilidad Climática y Proyectos de Desarrollo Limpio, con Potencial a Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio - MDL Mitigación del Cambio Climático en el Sector Transporte Transmilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio - Transmilenio S.A. 13 de Diciembre de 2006 Diapositiva 7.

39

Grafica 3. Factores a tener en cuenta en la reducción de emisión de gases.

GESTION EDUCATIVA Y CULTURAL – CAPACITACION Y CUALIFICACION RECURSO HUMANO

ESTANDARES DE EMISIONES (TECNOLOGIA)

GESTION DE PLANIFICACION & DEMANDA DE TRANSPORTE

INSPECCION & MANTENIMIENTO

REGLAMENTACION NORMATIVIDAD

MONITOREO Y CONTROL- SISTEMAS DE INFORMACION Y DE INDICADORES

COMBUSTIBLES LIMPIOS

POLITICAS ECONOMICAS Y FISCALES

Fuente: Mitigación del Cambio Climático en el Sector Transporte Transmilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio - Transmilenio S.A. 13 de Diciembre de 2006.

En la grafica anterior, los factores mencionados contribuyen para obtener resultados positivos en el mejoramiento de la calidad de aire en la ciudad, es importante tener en cuenta todos estos estándares que funcionan como un ciclo continuo para tener un funcionamiento exitoso en el Sistema de Transporte Masivo, ya que si faltara alguno de estos factores el resultado no seria el más conveniente por que no se filtraría y ejecutaría bien cada una de las actividades realizadas en cada uno de estos procesos.

40

CAPITULO 4 Grafica 4. MAPA FASE II TRANSMILENIO.

Fuente: www.transmilenio.gov.co. Mayo 3 de 2008, 11:50 A.M.

41

4.1. SISTEMA DE TRANSPORTE MASIVO TRANSMILENIO S.A.

TransMilenio es un sistema de transporte masivo, que responde a la necesidad de ordenar el transporte público en la ciudad de Bogotá, al tiempo que ofrece una alternativa integral de desarrollo urbano. El sistema de transporte es administrado por la empresa TRANSMILENIO S.A.23

El Sistema TransMilenio está conformado por Portales, buses rígidos, operadores, conductores y todo el equipo de tecnología digital de comunicaciones por estación, buses articulados, que están detrás del sistema. Se constituye en un proyecto de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL), en la medida que busca recuperar y ordenar el espacio publico para beneficio de sus habitantes y en la reducción de las emisiones nocivas para el aire dado los siguientes puntos24: • Sustitución de buses obsoletos. • Sustitución parcial de transporte privado por público y Eficiencia energética – menor consumo de combustible por pasajero transportado. • Uso de tecnologías más limpias (buses con tecnologías Euro II y Euro III, que obtienen mejor desempeño en la operación y menores niveles de emisión de gases)25.

La construcción de la infraestructura del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio, se lleva a cabo con los recursos aportados por la Nación y el Distrito de acuerdo al convenio suscrito para tal fin, en cumplimiento de la Ley 310 de 1996, que en su Artículo 2 dice: “La Nación y sus entidades descentralizadas por servicios cofinanciarán o participarán con aportes de capital, en dinero o en especie, en el Sistema de Servicio Público Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros, con un mínimo del 40% y un máximo del 70% del servicio de la deuda del proyecto”. Teniendo en cuenta lo anterior, el Distrito ha destinado el 50% de la sobre tasa a la gasolina, tal como lo establece el acuerdo 42 de 1999, para cumplir con el compromiso adquirido en el Convenio anteriormente mencionado.

En la tabla 3. Se presentan los costos de estructura y diseños los cuales hacen parte integral de la infraestructura del Sistema TransMilenio. 23 24

http://www.idu.gov.co/sist_trans/infraestruc_transmilenio.h Mayo 3 de 2008, 1:20 P.M. www.transmilenio.gov.co Mayo 3 de 2008, 1:30 P.M.

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Buses Euro II y Euro III: de 15 y 18 metros con piso bajo y capacidad promedio de 120 y 160 pasajeros. Tiene un motor de 9 litros y utiliza 8 y 10 neumáticos. Consta de tecnología para reducir un kilogramo de Material Particulado (MP) y Oxido Nitroso (NO2) mediante el reemplazo de motores con certificaciones de emisiones más exigentes y con sistemas de postratamiento.

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Tabla 3. Costos de Infraestructura del Sistema TransMilenio año 2000 en US$ mill. Longitud Corredor (KM)

Construcción Corredor

Diseño

Andenes

Patios

TOTAL

Calle 80

10.0

42.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

42.6

caracas

21.0

69.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

69.0

Autopista norte

10.0

42.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

42.3

Américas

16.7

86.3

0.4

4.1

4.1

94.8

43.2Avenida suba

11.0

36.1

0.2

2.7

4.1

43.2

C.F.S

12.0

62.0

0.3

2.9

4.1

69.2

7.9

25.9

0.2

2.0

4.1

32.1

Carrera 10

13.0

42.7

0.3

3.2

4.1

50.3

Carrera 7

11.0

36.1

0.2

2.7

4.1

43.2

Calle 6

4.9

16.1

0.1

1.2

4.1

21.5

Calle 170

9.7

31.9

0.2

2.4

4.1

38.6

Calle 26

9.7

31.7

0.2

2.4

4.1

38.4

35.5

116.6

0.8

8.7

8.2

134.3

Boyacá

35.0

115.0

0.8

8.6

4.1

128.4

Av. 1 de Mayo

14.5

47.7

0.3

3.6

4.1

55.6

Calle 13

14.4

47.5

0.3

3.5

4.1

55.4

Caracas (2)

21.0

350.5

0.5

0.0

4.1

355.0

Av. Villavicencio

10.3

33.8

0.2

2.5

4.1

40.6

Av. 68

16.0

52.6

0.3

3.9

4.1

60.9

8.7

28.5

0.2

2.1

4.1

34.8

30.9

101.4

0.7

7.6

4.1

113.7

6.8

22.3

0.1

1.7

4.1

28.2

48.0

200.0

1.0

1.7

4.1

206.8

TRONCAL Etapa 1998-2001

Etapa 2001-2006

Av. De los cerros

NQS Etapas 2006- 2011

Etapa 2011-2016

Calle 63 Av. Ciudad de Cali Calle 200 A.L.O. Autopista nortes (2)

10.0

166.9

0.2

0.0

4.1

171.2

TOTAL

387.9

1805.4

7.5

67.4

89.8

1970.1

Fuente: CONPES 3093 Sistema de Servicio Publico Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogotá Pág. 16.

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4.1.2 POLITICA AMBIENTAL DE TRANSMILENIO S.A.

Toda empresa que tiene como uno de sus principales objetivos generar una conciencia ambiental desde su actividad y mejorar la calidad de vida de la sociedad donde opera dentro de sus principios, debe tener claro y por escrito una política ambiental, la cual será la carta de navegación de la empresa que apuntara todas sus actividades al cumplimiento de esta, es por esto que el empresa Transmilenio S.A. define su Políticas Ambiental de la siguiente forma:

•

VISION DEL AREA AMBIENTAL DE TRANSMILENIO S.A.

Establecer un sistema de transporte sostenible que minimice los problemáticas ambientales y de calidad de vida generados por el actual sistema de transporte urbano.

•

MISION DEL AREA AMBIENTAL DE TRANSMILENIO S.A.

Contribuir a la sostenibilidad ambiental de la ciudad de Bogotá, a través de la creación de un modelo general para la gestión ambiental en el sistema de transporte masivo – TransMilenio, que involucre entre otros los procesos de planeación, control y seguimiento de la gestión ambiental de los agentes operadores del sistema •

OBJETIVOS

El Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio en su compromiso ambiental y ante la sociedad se propone a cumplir objetivos que contribuyen a mejorar la calidad de vida en la ciudad, como: • •

•

26

Fortalecer la gestión ambiental del Distrito a través del fortalecimiento de la gestión ambiental del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio Fortalecer una articulación integral de la gestión ambiental, de sus procesos y resultados, con las demás funciones de la entidad y del sistema que contribuyen a garantizar la prestación del servicio con oportunidad y calidad para el usuario y contribuyendo a la calidad de vida y a la calidad ambiental del Distrito. Consolidar una comunidad crítica y comprometida con la realidad ambiental de la ciudad, capaz de responder desde procesos multi e interdisciplinarios, con rigor, oportunidad, pertinencia social y técnica a las problemáticas ambientales del Sistema26.

www.transmilenio.gov.co Mayo 3 de 2008, 1:35 P.M.

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La operación del Sistema TransMilenio constituye una contribución a la sostenibilidad ambiental urbana: es un proyecto que se inserta dentro del ordenamiento de la ciudad, produciendo amplios ejes de desarrollo urbano y mejoramiento ambiental. El proyecto aporta al aumentar la eficiencia energética del transporte con27: • Reducción del consumo de combustible por pasajero. • Mayor aprovechamiento del tiempo de uso del bus. • Aumento del volumen de pasajeros transportados por kilómetro recorrido. • Autorregulación de la oferta de servicios. • Reducción tiempo de recorridos. • Vinculación de buses con tecnología más limpia y eficiente. • Uso eficiente del agua y de la energía. Todas las actividades anteriormente mencionadas, realizadas en el sistema y por parte de los operadores que están vinculados, deben dar cumplimiento con la normatividad ambiental del sistema, encaminadas al mejoramiento continuo de los procesos, estando certificados con las normas ISO 900128, ISO 1400029 y OSHAS 1800130, lo cual da compromiso con la sociedad, llevando a cabo programa de gestión adecuado que permitan brindar un excelente desempeño en toda la operación.

•

IMPACTO AMBIENTAL DEL SISTEMA TRANSMILENIO.

Para el Sistema TransMilenio, ha tenido efectos positivos sobre la ciudad, por que ha permitido recuperar y ordenar el espacio público para beneficio de sus habitantes, contribuyendo a mejorar el aspecto visual de la ciudad. El Sistema contribuye a la sostenibilidad ambiental de la ciudad porque es un Sistema eficiente31: • 27

Reduce el consumo de combustible por kilómetro recorrido y por pasajero transportado

www.transmilenio.gov.co Mayo 3 de 2008, 1:35 P.M.

28 Norma Internacional ISO 9001- International Organization for Standardization, requisitos para un Sistemas de Gestión de la Calidad. Quality Management Sistems. Requeriments 29

Norma Internacional ISO 14001:2004: Sistemas de Gestión Ambiental Requisitos con orientación para su uso. Enviromental Management Sistems- Requeriments with guidance for use.

25 Serie

de Compromisos de Seguridad y Salud Ocupacional OHSAS 18001: 2007 RequisitosSistemas de Gestión de Seguridad y Salud Ocupacional.

31

www.transmilenio.gov.co Mayo 3 de 2008, 1:35 P.M.

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• • • •

El número de pasajeros transportados por kilómetro recorrido es mayor al del transporte colectivo tradicional Los buses del Sistema TransMilenio son de tecnologías Euro II y Euro III que tienen niveles bajos de emisión de gases contaminantes. Los promedios de velocidad son mayores con el Sistema TransMilenio, lo que supone una reducción en el tiempo de los recorridos. El Sistema contribuye al mejoramiento de la calidad de vida de los Bogotanos porque reduce los tiempos de viaje32.

En la operación del sistema se hace más eficiente debido a que 1 bus articulado transporta 160 pasajeros por recorrido, mientras que en el Transporte Particular se requieren entre 40 a 100 vehículos, y en el Transporte Público Colectivo 3 vehículos.

Cabe decir que los tiempos de viaje son menores ya que transita por una senda especializada, teniendo más capacidad de transportar usuarios debido al tipo de Buses Euro II y Euro III que utiliza para prestar el servicio, de igual manera se considera que los buses Euros tienen el menor consumo de Diesel por pasajero en la ciudad debido a la tecnología que manejan y en relación con los otros tipos de transporte. Tabla 4. Contribución del Sistema a la Sostenibilidad Ambiental TIPO VEHÍCULO

CAPACIDAD PASAJEROS

CONSUMO COMBUSTIBLE KM/GALÓN

TransMilenio Bus Articulado, Euro II Diesel

160

5.90

Bus Convencional, Diesel

70-80

8.09

Bus Convencional, Gasolina

70-80

5.79

Bus mediano, diesel modelo 1995-2004

27-45

19.00

Bus mediano, diesel modelo 1980

27-45

14.99

Bus mediano, gasolina modelo 1980

27-45

9.99

13-19

20.97

13-19

12.98

Microbus, diesel Microbus, gasoline

Fuente: GTZ Bus Rapid Planning Guide. Octubre 2004 32

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PASAJEROS POR KILÓMETRO RECORRIDO(IPK) 5.20 1.00-2.27 1.00-2.27 0.90-2.24 0.90-2.24 0.90-2.24 0.60-1.44 0.60-1.44

Las emisiones generadas por los medios de transporte calculadas en promedio de CO2 por pasajero (gr. CO2 por pasajero transportado) son las siguientes:

Tabla 5. Emisiones Generadas en Gr. CO2 por los Medios de Transporte MEDIO DE TRANSPORTE

Gr. CO2 X PASAJERO TRANSPORTADO.

TransMilenio

360

Buses tradicionales Bogotá

970

Taxis Bogotá

3.400

Vehículos particulares Bogotá

1.900

Fuente: Guidelines for National Green House Gas Inventories 1996 Cálculo: CAF.TM. 2005

Uno de los aspectos de relevancia para el cumplimiento de la reducción de emisión de gases es la renovación del parque automotor del servicio de transporte de la ciudad con el proceso de la chatarrización de los buses públicos de Bogotá.

Este Proceso de chatarrización se inició mediante el decreto 115 de 2003 durante la alcaldía de Antanas Mockus y continuó vigente en la administración de Luís Eduardo Garzón. El proceso de chatarrización lleva 4 años y ha sido desarrollado durante la actual alcaldía, que le ha ido mostrando cifras a la ciudadanía con el programa Bogotá ¿cómo vamos?, Según la Secretaría de Movilidad y Transporte los vehículos chatarrizados hasta ahora del 2000 a Marzo del 2006 son: Tabla 6. Buses Chatarrizados del 2000 a Marzo de 2006. Año

Buses chatarrizados

2000

61

2001

1532

2003

1878

2004

1488

2005

1841

Marzo 2006

330

Fuente: Secretaria de Movilidad de Bogotá D.C.

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Estas cifras dan cuenta de la poca efectividad del programa para disminuir el parque automotor, pues el número de vehículos chatarrizados no se han incrementado, lo cual genera más contaminación y más congestión en las vías de Bogotá.

Con el decreto 115 de 2003 se creo un fondo de chatarrización con el objetivo de mejorar la calidad del transporte público y movilidad, obteniendo los recursos por medio de los pasajes de los usuarios ya que de cada $1.000, 17 son para este. El dinero recaudado se destina a la compra de contado de los buses que deben salir de las calles directo al proceso, para ser reemplazados por buses nuevos.

Para que un bus salga de circulación debe haber cumplido una vida útil de 20 años, este debe tener condiciones mecánicas y físicas no adecuadas para prestar el servicio, según la norma establecida en el Código Nacional de Tránsito.

La Resolución 728 de 2004 establece el siguiente procedimiento: El vehículo debe ingresar completo y con todas sus partes. SIDERURGICA DIACO S.A. es la empresa nacional que se dedica a la producción de aceros utilizando como material principal la chatarra, allí los conductores llevan sus buses para que sean revisados, para determinar si deben ser o no desintegrados.

REVISIÓN TÉCNICA DE LA SIJIN: La SIJIN realiza la revisión técnica del automotor y expide un certificado de identificación en el que se acredite que las improntas y demás identificaciones del vehículo coinciden con los datos que figuran en el registro distrital automotor.

•

CERTIFICADO DE DESINTEGRACIÓN FÍSICA

La entidad desintegradora realiza el proceso de chatarrización total del vehículo a reponer y expide un certificado de desintegración física que acredita haberse surtido los procesos de inhabilitación definitiva de todas las partes recuperables, en el que dará cuenta de lo siguiente33: a.) Que inspeccionó el estado del bus antes de ingresar a la planta, identificado el vehículo conforme a la siguiente información, como mínimo:

33

www.movilidadbogota.gov.co/index.aspSecretaria de Movilidad Bogota D.C. Mayo 6 de 2008, 7:10 P.M.

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• • • • • •

Tipo de vehículo Marca de vehículo confrontando la que figura en el registro automotor Modelo del vehículo confrontando el que figura en el registro automotor Numero de la matricula confrontando la que figura en el registro automotor Numero de la placa confrontando la que figura en el registro automotor Numero de chasis confrontando el que figura en el registro automotor

b.) Que se surtió debidamente el proceso de inhabilitación definitiva e irreversible de partes recuperables Auditoria Price Waterhouse Coopers: La Firma Price Waterhouse Coopers: realiza una auditoria a efectos de verificar que toda la documentación del vehículo que se ingresó a la planta corresponde con los originales del automotor. Cancelación de Documentos: El propietario del bus, buses o microbús a desintegrar debe solicitar ante la STT la cancelación de la licencia de tránsito, de la tarjeta de operación y demás registros públicos que habilitan jurídicamente el vehículo que se pretende reponer, debe presentar: 1. Recibo de pago de impuestos sobre el vehículo a reponer de los últimos dos años. 2. Original de la tarjeta de operación vigente hasta la fecha de prestación del servicio. 3. Original de la licencia tránsito. 4. El certificado de desintegración física total establecido en La Resolución (728 de 2004), expedido por una entidad desintegrada34.

El propietario del vehículo a desintegrar deberá declarar bajo gravedad de juramento que asume cualquier responsabilidad que se origine por la información que suministre a fin de obtener la desintegración del automotor e igualmente que se haga responsable de todas las acciones penales, civiles y fiscales que surjan con ocasión de la desintegración del vehículo.

Los vehículos de servicio de Transporte Público chatarrizados por en la entidad desintegradora acreditada ante la administración distrital, desde el 14 de diciembre de 2000 y hasta el 4 de junio de 2004, son 5.199.

34

www.movilidadbogota.gov.co/index.aspSecretaria de Movilidad Bogota D.C. Mayo 6 de 2008, 7:10 P.M.

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4.2. TRANSMILENIO COMO MECANISMO DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO

Como se menciono con anterioridad el sistema de Transporte Masivo Transmilenio S.A. para ser aceptado como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, presentó un proyecto junto a la Comunidad Andina de Fomento ante el Meth Panel, organismo de las Naciones Unidas, para que fuera estudiado y analizado bajo la normatividad que establece el protocolo de Kyoto para este tipo de proyectos y ser aprobado bajo este mismo.

A continuación se describe los aspectos más relevantes de la descripción del proyecto presentado ante Meth Panel35

La meta de TransMilenio es establecer sistema de transporte urbano basado en un Bus el Tránsito Rápido (BRT), moderno eficaz, seguro, rápido, conveniente, cómodo y eficaz que asegura los niveles desplazamiento.

Los aspectos centrales de TransMilenio son: • Una nueva infraestructura que consiste en sendas especializadas, buses de capacidad grandes, y las estaciones del bus elevadas que permiten la venta de boletos y transito rápido. Se integran unidades más pequeñas que ofrecen los servicios del alimentador a las estaciones principales en el sistema. • Un nuevo sistema de la tarifa integrado que permite los traslados libres. • Sistema de dirección de bus mejorado que mueve de muchas empresas independientes pequeñas que compiten al nivel del bus-a-bus a una estructura consolidada con empresas formales que compiten para las concesiones. • Mando proporcionando rápido coordinado centralizado que supervisa y comunicaciones para fijar servicios y contestación del real-tiempo a las contingencias. • La reducción de la flota existente de buses a través de un programa del Chatarrización. A través de desechar más de 9'000 buses.

TransMilenio es una sociedad público-privada (PPP) en que el sector público es responsable para la inversión desplegar la infraestructura requerida (segregó las sendas, estaciones, los términos, etc.), mientras el sector privado es responsable para la inversión de la flota del bus, el boleto vendiendo y

35

Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF)-Transmilenio S.A. BRT Bogota, Colombia: Transmilenio Phase II – IV. Versión 2 - in effect as Of.: 1 July 2004. Pág. 3.

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validando el sistema, y para el funcionamiento del tronco y servicios del alimentador.

TransMilenio tiene como aspecto medioambiental que la eficacia en transportar pasajeros en la ciudad se mejora, las emisiones por viaje del pasajero estarán disminuyendo comparado a la situación sin el proyecto. Esto se comprende un través de los siguientes de cambios:

•

•

•

La eficacia mejorada: se usan los nuevos y más grandes buses qué tiene una eficacia de combustible mejorada por pasajero transportado comparado con aquéllos usados en la ausencia del proyecto. Modo que cambia: El sistema de BRT es más atractivo a los clientes debido a los tiempos de transporte reducidos, seguridad y confiabilidad. Puede atraer a usuarios de automóvil privado o taxi. Aumento de carga o cambio en la ocupación: los sistemas de BRT tienen una organización centralmente manejada que despachan los vehículos. La proporción de ocupación de vehículos puede aumentarse según las medidas requeridas.

El proyecto contribuye al desarrollo sustentable de una manera significante: •

•

•

•

El ambiente mejorado a través de menos emisiones contaminantes, específicamente CO2 y N2O. Esto se logra a través de un sistema de transporte más eficaz y nuevos buses. Resultados menos tiempo perdido en congestión vehicular, menos enfermedades respiratorias debido a menos polución, menor ruido y accidentes de transito. La creación de más de 1'500 trabajos de la construcción temporales para los habitantes de las comunidades circundantes a la construcción de Fase II - IV. Los beneficios económicos principalmente en un nivel macroeconómico. Bogotá puede mejorar su posición competitiva ofreciendo un sistema del tránsito atractivo y moderno y puede reducir los costos económicos de congestión36.

El proyecto cuenta con todos los requisitos legales de la legislación medioambiental de Colombia, dio fuerza a la Sección de Asuntos Medioambientales (DAMA). También obedece las pautas sociales y medioambientales emitidas por IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano) y el CAF (la Corporación de Desarrollo Andina). Se han concedido permisos todos medioambientales requeridos.

36

Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF)-Transmilenio S.A. BRT Bogota, Colombia: Transmilenio Phase II – IV. Versión 2 - in effect as Of.: 1 July 2004. Pág. 3 y 4.

51

De un punto de vista orgánico el sistema tiene reguladores, gerentes y operadores: • •

•

Los reguladores: El Ministerio de Transporte en el cargo de políticas nacionales y planes, la ciudad de Bogotá la secretaría de transporte. Gerentes de TransMilenio que planea, maneja y controla el sistema de BRT e IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano) qué construye y mantiene la infraestructura. Operadores: son las entidades del sector privado, tienen los contratos otorgados en un proceso del orden abierto y competitivo por TransMilenio. Que son los operadores de las Troncales, alimentación y recaudo.

La tecnología desplegada tiene 4 componentes principales. La infraestructura, buses, dirección del tránsito y sistema de la tarifa. La infraestructura: El proyecto establecerá en 2012 alrededor de 130km de sendas especializadas que incluyen nuevos buses, estaciones y líneas del alimentador. Cada estación tendrá un plan modular con las áreas de espera obstáculo-libres y el nivelado-acceso elevado a los buses articulados con una plataforma alta. Las estaciones tendrán las rampas de acceso para los pasajeros y seleccionarán las estaciones tendrán áreas para bicicletas y almacenamiento37. Grafica 5. Modelo Bus Transmilenio.

Fuente: www.transmilenio.gov.co. Mayo 3 de 2008, 12:50 A.M.

Efecto potencial de reducción de co2 de los buses de transito rápido (BRT): • • • •

Edad: Unidades con menos emisiones por Km. Tamaño: Unidades con menos emisiones por persona transportada. Ocupación: Transporte más eficiente (mejor grado de ocupación). Cambio modal: de taxis, motocicletas o vehículos particulares a buses.

37

Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF)-Transmilenio S.A. BRT Bogota, Colombia: Transmilenio Phase II – IV. Versión 2 - in effect as Of.: 1 July 2004. Pág. 5.

52

• Tecnología/combustible: Uso de combustibles con menos CO2 por litro (biodiesel, biogás, hidrógeno) o de tecnologías vehiculares más eficientes (híbridos). Las muestras las emisiones en material particulado y N2O que constituyen el problema de polución principal emisiones del diesel en buses de la Categoría Euro se muestran en la Tabla 4. La Dirección del tránsito: El centro rápido operacional maneja la salida del bus, informa a los pasajeros, produce los informes y mantiene los archivos. Todos los buses (de la troncal y alimentadores) de la Fase II están dentro del Sistema del Posicionamiento Global (GPS). La novedad del centro rápido operacional es que da una dirección eficaz y coordinador el servicio, también los pasajeros tienen la información del real-tiempo sobre el próximo bus disponible y están informados de problemas de tránsito potenciales.

El Sistema de la tarifa: El sistema es basado en venta de boletos magnéticos esto hace rápido el proceso de ingreso al Sistema y perfecciona funcionamiento. La colección de la tarifa se centraliza y manejó por una compañía privada a través de una concesión38

38

Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF)-Transmilenio S.A. BRT Bogota, Colombia: Transmilenio Phase II – IV. Versión 2 - in effect as Of.: 1 July 2004. Pág. 6 y 7.

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CAPITULO 5 METODOLOGIA PARA EL ANALISIS DEL CICLO DEL PROYECTO.

5.1 CICLO DEL PROYECTO Grafica 6. CICLO DEL PROYECTO

PREINVERSION

IDENTIFICACION SELECCIÓN FORMULACION EVALUACION

INVERSION

ADMINISTRACION DE LA EJECUCION

PLANEACION OPERACIÓN CONTROL REVISION

OPERACION

ADMINISTRACION DE LA OPERACION

PLANEACION OPERACIÓN CONTROL REVISION

Fuente: Gestión de Proyectos Identificación - Formulación y Evaluación. Pág. 7.

Según el libro Gestión de Proyectos Identificación - Formulación y Evaluación de Juan José Miranda, formular un proyecto significa verificar los efectos económicos, técnicos, financieros, institucionales, políticos, organizativos y ambientales y asignar recursos hacia el logro de unos objetivos. En un proyecto se puede identificar ciertos pasos que se deben tener en cuenta en el ciclo del proyecto, las diferentes etapas que recorre el proyecto desde que se concibe la idea hasta que se materializa son:

La Etapa de preinversión: corresponde a todos los estudios que se precisan adelantar antes de tomar las decisiones de canalizar recursos hacia algún

54

objetivo particular; esta fase incluye los procesos de identificación, selección, formulación y evaluación del proyecto39. La Etapa de Inversión: Es básicamente una etapa de movilización de recursos tanto humanos, como financieros y físicos, con el propósito de garantizar los medios idóneos para el cumplimiento del objetivo social de la empresa.

La Etapa de Operación: Corresponde a una actividad permanente y rutinaria encaminada a la producción de un bien o a la prestación de un servicio; es la etapa, en la cual se ve el cumplimiento del objetivo social de la empresa.

5.1.1 ETAPA DE LA PREINVERSION Esta etapa se compone de40: Identificación de proyectos: se fundamenta en la explicación de los aspectos principales del problema o necesidad y el planteamiento de las posibles alternativas de solución, o la forma de cómo se puede aprovechar una oportunidad. • Descripción del Problema: El primer paso para la identificación del proyecto es el reconociendo del problema o necesidad de que se quiere solucionar. Es preciso conocer las características del mismo sus causas y los aspectos que lo rodean y que pueden ser importantes en el momento de buscar una solución a través de un proyecto. • Población afectada directamente por el problema: Una vez identificada el problema se debe determinar la población de referencia y el área o zona directamente por la necesidad: • Descripción de la situación actual y su evolución: Esta descripción se deben establecer que consecuencias se derivan del problema y si el problema tiende a empeorar en el futuro y en que medio. La descripción de la situación actual debe conducir a un análisis en las cuales se establezcan las principales acciones que se deben realizar para solucionar el problema (alternativa). • Cuantificación de Necesidades (estudio de oferta y demanda): Es necesario describir las condiciones en las que actualmente se esta prestando el servicio o produciendo los bienes y cuantificar la cantidad producida actualmente de dichos bienes y servicios. • Estudio de Alternativas: Se debe determinar inicialmente todas las alternativas que en primera instancia son viables para solucionar el 39 Miranda Miranda Juan José, Gestión de Proyectos Identificación - Formulación y Evaluación. MB editores, Bogotá 1997 Pág. 5. 40 Miranda Miranda Juan José, Gestión de Proyectos Identificación - Formulación y Evaluación. MB editores, Bogotá 1997 Pág. 7, 8 y 9.

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problema propuesto; cada una de ellas debe reportar los mismos beneficios para que sean comparables. Las alternativas deben estudiarse en función de su tamaño, la localización, la tecnología utilizada, y los recursos disponibles. La Selección de Proyectos: Este se debe hacer dentro del marco de referencia del proceso de planeación. El proyecto seleccionado debe estar acorde con las necesidades del problema a solucionar garantizando la mejor utilización de los recursos disponibles. Formulación del Proyecto: Permite clarificar los objetivos del proyecto y analizar las partes que lo componen. Dependiendo de los niveles de la profundización de los diferentes aspectos, se suelen denominar los estudios como: Identificación de la idea: Parte de obtención de una amplia información sobre el sector económico y geográfico donde se llevara a cabo el proyecto, que dará una panorámica sobre los recursos naturales, técnicos y humanos disponibles y sobre las condiciones económico-sociales favorables o desfavorables para el desarrollo del proyecto en el área determina41.

•

•

•

Perfil Preeliminar: Con base en los elementos de juicio obtenidos a través de los estudios previos, se plantea la hipótesis en tormo al producto o servicio frente a la población objeto; a la viabilidad técnica de la propuesta y sus posibles variantes derivadas del tamaño, la localización, o de los procesos técnicos disponibles y de los modelos de organización de instalación y operación; logrando una primera aproximación a la magnitud de las inversiones, los costos, los ingresos que posibiliten la aplicación de criterios de rentabilidad que conduzcan a calificar, en principio, las ventajas o desventajas del proyecto. Estudio de Prefactibilidad: En esta se depuran, en un mayor grado de detalle, los aspectos de consumo, técnicos, financieros, institucionales y administrativos elaborados en la fase anterior y acudiendo si es preciso información primaria para algunas variables consideradas como relevantes con el fin de contrastar la hipótesis inicialmente planteada. Con este estudio se espera mejorar el nivel de información para tomar una decisión mas adecuada y pasar al estudio de factibilidad, o proceder al diseño definitivo para ejecutarlo, o abandonar el proyecto de manera temporal o definitiva a no presentar ventajas comparativas que ameriten su ejecución. Estudio de Factibilidad: Este se lleva a cabo cuando persisten dudas entorno a la viabilidad del proyecto en algunos de sus aspectos

41

Miranda Miranda Juan José, Gestión de Proyectos Identificación - Formulación y Evaluación. MB editores, Bogotá 1997 Pág. 9, 10 y 11.

56

•

fundamentales se procede a depurar la información que permita otorgar mejores y más confiables soportes para poder ejecutar el proyecto. Diseño definitivo: Estas son las acciones y actividades que garanticen la operación oportuna del proyecto, que tiene como tareas fundamentales: la identificación y diseño del ente administrativo y gerencial responsable, la definición, organización y contratación de los servicios de ingeniería; la selección y contratación de servicios auxiliares.

La Evaluación: En esta etapa consiste determinar mediante ala aplicación de técnicas cuantitativas y/o cualitativas la conveniencia o no, de asignar unos recursos hacia un uso determinado. Se trata, en general de un proceso encaminado sistemática y objetivamente, a determinar la pertinencia, eficacia, eficiencia e impacto de un cúmulo de actividades en búsqueda de ciertos objetivos. • Criterios de costos - beneficio: Este criterio permite determinar y compara la rentabilidad de los proyectos, contrastando el flujo de costos y beneficios actualizados, que se desprenderán de su implementación. Los costos corresponderán al valor de los recursos utilizados, en tanto que los beneficios son el valor de los bienes o servicios producidos por el proyecto • Análisis Costo- Efectividad: Este criterio compara los costos monetarios, con la posibilidad de alcanzar eficientemente ciertos objetivos que no pueden expresarse en términos monetarios. • Evaluación de Impacto: Se orienta a determinar en que medida el proyecto ha alcanzado sus objetivos, que cambios se han generado en la población beneficiaria, o sea la medida en que el proyecto produce una transformación en el ámbito en que se inserta, independientemente la magnitud de los recursos aplicados para tal efecto. • Evaluación de Proceso: Esta evaluación sugiere adecuaciones y correcciones en las propuestas de inversión.

5.1.2 ETAPA DE INVERSION

En esta etapa se movilizan los recursos humanos, físicos y financieros para las instalaciones de producción o prestación de servicios; involucrando a un gran numero de profesionales y operarios de diferentes perfiles, vinculados a la empresa promotora y la las firmas contratitas y subcontratistas por lo tanto esta

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etapa se torna mucho mas variada y compleja desde el punto de vista de su organización y administración42. El programa de Inversión debe considerar actividades como: Consecución de créditos, solicitud de permiso a las autoridades, contratación de obras, negociación de tecnologías y condiciones de transferencia, compra de equipos, procesos de instalación y montaje, que garanticen la puesta en marcha y el adecuado funcionamiento del proyecto 5.1.3. ETAPA DE OPERACIÒN

En esta etapa los recursos humanos, técnicos y administrativos son orientados hacia la producción de un bien o hacia la prestación de un servicio que constituye en el objeto social permanente de la empresa. En la etapa de operación se presenta el ciclo de la acción administrativa: Planeación, acción y control. La actividad principal y el eje central del proceso es la acción, que es precedida por el planeamiento que determina el mejor curso a seguir, y antecede a la fase de control, que verifica que la acción se ejecute de acuerdo al plan; y dado que el control identifica una nueva información nos conduce a la revisión e implementación de nuevos planes, determina el inicio de un nuevo ciclo43.

Para llevar a cabo el análisis del caso TransMilenio, se analizarán los aspectos relacionados, con lo que se define un proyecto como exitoso en la etapa de preinversión, inversión y para finalizar la etapa de operación, metodología que fue basada de acuerdo al marco conceptual del banco de proyectos exitosos que busca generar instrumentos que permitan incorporar criterios de uso eficiente y eficaz en las necesidades consideradas importantes para el desarrollo social y económico que aporta el proyecto. Es así que se analiza bajo preguntas idóneas para la evaluación de cada etapa, utilizando como base la mayéutica, el cual busca por medio de preguntas hacer cuestionamientos para obtener respuestas y establecer conceptos generales para llegar a una conclusión general de lo que se está preguntado sobre la etapa a analizar. 5.2. ANALISIS CASO TRANSMILENIO Según la guía metodología del marco conceptual del banco de proyectos exitosos de Lina María Castaño Mesa, el cual indica que se debe tener por lo menos una información minima para llevar a cabo la evaluación del proyecto, definiendo las variables acordes según las etapas de Preinversión, Inversión y 42 Miranda Miranda Juan José, Gestión de Proyectos Identificación - Formulación y Evaluación. MB editores, Bogotá 1997 Pág. 28. 43 Miranda Miranda Juan José, Gestión de Proyectos Identificación - Formulación y Evaluación. MB editores, Bogotá 1997 Pág. 30 a la 31.

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Operación, concretando las preguntas de acuerdo al estudio del proyecto, así se podrá brindar un análisis, con su respectiva justificación según la investigación realizada.

Para llevar a cabo esta metodología se tuvo en cuenta las preguntas que se tiene como base en el banco de proyectos exitosos, las cuales fueron modificadas y adecuadas de acuerdo a la pertinencia del proyecto y a la información con la que se contó para analizar cada etapa del caso TransMilenio S.A. Fase II; cada criterio de cada etapa esta compuesto por tres partes que son: • • •

Preguntas de acuerdo a la etapa que se este analizando Puntaje que esta definido como deficiente, aceptable, sobresaliente. Justificación del criterio analizado.

bueno

y

El puntaje se da para cada criterio de acuerdo a la justificación, e investigación realizada por las autoras del proyecto. Dando una calificación final el cual se define como: • •

•

•

Deficiente: En este caso se da es este puntaje cuando los aspectos analizados son débiles o no cumplen con las expectativas del proyecto. Aceptable: En este caso se da es este puntaje cuando el cumplimiento de los objetivos en la formulación a la ejecución del proyecto no se cumplieron en su totalidad. Bueno: En este caso se da es este puntaje cuando el proyecto esta funcionando de acuerdo a lo propuesto, pero por agentes externos no logra el objetivo propuesto del proyecto Sobresaliente: En este caso se da es este puntaje cuando el proyecto no tiene ninguna objeción desde su formulación hasta la puesta en marcha.

Tanto las preguntas como la calificación fueron modificadas por las autoras del proyecto, por que en la guía las preguntas bases no todas son pertinentes con la información y objeto del proyecto, en cuanto a la calificación en la guía se toma cuantitativamente y en este trabajo se valora cualitativamente.

Los puntajes asignados se basan de acuerdo a la información que hay en este trabajo y como base fundamental el documento CONPES 3093, Sistema de Servicio Publico Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogotá, seguimiento. Bogotá D.C., 15 de Noviembre 2000 y el proyecto presentado ante el Meth Panel de las Naciones Unidas BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV y observación primaria ya que no fue posible concretar una entrevista con el departamento de Gestión ambiental que es el encargado de manejar este proceso en el sistema.

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5.2.1. ETAPA PREINVERSION EN MECANISMOS DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO CASO TRANSMILENIO FASE II. En esta etapa se hace referencia a la identificación del problema a resolver, los posibles beneficiarios, la localización geográfica y los objetivos que se espera alcanzar con el proyecto, para generar las alternativas de solución más conveniente considerando los objetivos propuestos y los beneficios que genera el proyecto.

• Información del diagnóstico completa y de calidad 1¿Cuáles son las fuentes de información en las cuales se basó la realización de la inversión en Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio para la Fase II de TransMilenio? 2 ¿Las fuentes de información utilizadas son confiables?

Puntaje: _______BUENO______. Justificación Las fuentes de información en las cuales se basó la inversión en Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio, son el Plan Maestro de Movilidad del año 2000, el cual está orientado hacia el logro de un transporte urbano integrado y eficiente para regular el tráfico de la ciudad. El Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial, tiene como objetivo reordenar el territorio, sus actividades, con miras a mejorar la calidad de vida de los bogotanos; Plan de Gestión Ambiental define y orienta la gestión ambiental del distrito capital, ampliando el marco de la política ambiental y definiendo las estrategias para mejorar las practicas en pro del mejoramiento del medio ambiente y el documento CONPES No. 3093 Sistema de Servicio Público Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogotá, el cual ayudó a identificar la estructura inicial en la que se basó la creación del proyecto TransMilenio, dando inicio al objetivo ambiental reflejándolo en la infraestructura del sistema y en la utilización de vehículos que reduzcan las emisiones de gases contaminantes. Estas fuentes de información se ven reflejadas en el Plan de Gestión Ambiental (2001-2009) y en la política ambiental con la que cuenta hoy en día el Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio, lo cual demuestra la importancia con la que se empezó a desarrollar, liderar y aplicar la inversión en la implementación de reducción de emisiones por medio de la renovación del parque automotor, la velocidad y distancias de promedio de circulación diaria, la chatarrización de vehículos y otros, el cual según estimaciones dadas por la Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá,400.000 toneladas en promedio se deberá reducir en emisiones.

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•

Coherencia interna del diagnóstico 1¿La información obtenida a través de la elaboración del diagnóstico explica con claridad la implementación de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio? 2 ¿Cuáles fueron las causas que se plantearon en el diagnóstico? 3 ¿Los indicadores utilizados apoyan las conclusiones del diagnóstico?

Puntaje: _____BUENO______. Justificación: El proyecto como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio presenta metas, las cuales se inician con una nueva infraestructura que consiste en sendas especializadas, buses de grandes capacidades, estaciones para establecer un sistema de tránsito eficaz, seguro y rápido, respaldando el aspecto ambiental en la eficacia de transportar a los pasajeros en Bogotá, es decir las emisiones por el viaje del pasajero están reducidas comparado a la situación que se diagnosticó sin el proyecto, como por ejemplo: Altos niveles de congestión, Infraestructura inadecuada, déficit vial, Altos niveles de accidentalidad, Contaminación Ambiental, Ruido, Contaminación Visual, Excesivo consumo de Combustibles entre otros. Con relación a los indicadores económicos establecidos y asociados a Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio esta: el valor presente neto, la relación beneficio/costo y la TIR, que se ven reflejados en los siguientes aspectos en el sistema de transporte: ahorro en tiempo de viaje por mayor velocidad de desplazamiento, mayor capacidad de usuarios transportados y generación de empleos; en cuanto a los indicadores de impacto socio/ambiental están relacionados principalmente, en el cubrimiento del 80% de los viajes de transporte público, reflejando la reducción de las emisiones de vehículos de transporte público asegurando el cubrimiento total de los usuarios. En conformidad con el diagnostico que se presentó para la implementación de Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, se observa que la infraestructura y tecnología utilizada es parte fundamental para llevar a cabo realmente la reducción de gases que contribuyen al aumento del Efecto Invernadero.

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• La correspondencia de los objetivos con la necesidad a solucionar

1 ¿Cuál es el problema a solucionar de acuerdo al diagnóstico? 2 ¿De acuerdo a la información presentada el logro de los objetivos del proyecto mejorará la situación presentada en el diagnóstico? 3 ¿Están los objetivos directamente relacionados con la situación del diagnóstico, si no por qué?

Puntaje: _____BUENO_______. Justificación: De acuerdo al diagnóstico existe la necesidad de establecer un sistema de transporte con una mejor Infraestructura, eficaz, seguro y rápido, el cual busca recuperar y ordenar el espacio público para beneficio de sus usuarios y la reducción de las emisiones nocivas totales en la ciudad, para ello se propuso la sustitución de buses obsoletos, el bajo consumo de combustible por pasajero transportado, reducción tiempo de recorridos. Las metas propuestas están relacionadas con la necesidad que tiene la ciudad frente al transporte público, estos objetivos pueden ser más efectivos siempre y cuando se lleve a cabo toda la inversión en infraestructura y tecnología que es necesaria para el cumplimiento más efectivo de los objetivos dispuestos como Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio.

• Información de cada una de las alternativas completa y de calidad 1¿Se presentó más de una alternativa para solucionar el problema o situación identificada en el diagnóstico? 2¿Las alternativas presentadas están dirigidas a solucionar el problema?

Puntaje: _____BUENO_______.

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Justificación: En el proyecto de TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, se plantearon 4 alternativas para solucionar el problema en el diagnostico, estas son: 1. El establecimiento de un sistema de transporte público – el metro: Esta basado en un sistema ferroviario para la capacidad de trasportar alta cantidad de pasajeros, pero según el Departamento de Planeación Nacional de Colombia no considero esta alternativa viable debido a que la inversión es más alta que la inversión en TransMilenio (4.007 millones de USD contra 1.970 millones de USD) y la cobertura del es superior con TransMilenio comparado con el metro. 2. Una reestructuración total organizacional, del sistema de transporte: Esta alternativa implica un sistema de transporte totalmente integrado, centralmente manejado y reestructurado pero carece de conocimientos técnicos en cómo ejecutar el cambio de la alta resistencia para cambiar de operadores actuales, ya que para Bogotá esta alternativa es considerada no-factible debido al desafío de la organización. 3. La continuación del sistema de transporte actual (incluye TransMilenio fase I): Una continuación del sistema de transporte actual se conforma con requisitos legales y reguladores todos aplicables. La puesta en práctica de las fases II a la IV de TransMilenio no es condicionada por la ley Colombiana, regional o local 4. La aplicación del proyecto sin el Consejo de Desarrollo Municipal: no se considera como viable debido básicamente a tres barreras importantes que se han identificado para la extensión de las fases de TransMilenio: •

•

•

Barrera de la inversión: Los costes por kilómetro son perceptiblemente más altos que anticipados y perceptiblemente más arriba que en la fase I. Barrera política: El interés de la nueva administración en la inversión en nuevas fases se limita pues otros proyectos de inversión pública son más altos en la agenda política actual. Resistencia del sector de transporte existente. Esta resistencia ha crecido concerniente a la fase I como solamente una parte limitada de la ciudad era antes afectada mientras que las fases II a la V abarcan una parte grande de la ciudad.

Dentro de las alternativas propuestas a la inversión de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio, la más acorde es continuar con el sistema de transporte actual (TransMilenio), debido a la formulación del proyecto inicial el cual abarca todos los aspectos económicos financieros y ambientales que contribuye el sistema a la ciudad. 63

•

La viabilidad de la alternativa seleccionada. 1 ¿Con qué criterio se seleccionó la alternativa definitiva? 2 ¿Está adecuadamente justificado este criterio? 3 ¿En general se considera que es la mejor la alternativa seleccionada?

Puntaje: ______ACEPTABLE______. Justificación: El criterio con que se seleccionó la alternativa No.3, la continuación del sistema de transporte actual (incluye TransMilenio fase I). Se seleccionó debido a que se tiene asegurado los recursos financieros para cada fase que se va a ejecutar por parte del Distrito y cuenta con la ventaja que en el sector Transporte no hay ninguna política de restricción y los avances significativos con la puesta en marcha de la Primera fase de TransMilenio, cabe anotar que el gremio de transporte público no está conforme con la ejecución de este sistema ya que limita los ingresos y la operación de los transportadores a un área limitada de la ciudad. Desde el enfoque de los mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio, es la alternativa más viable porque se establece el sistema en las vías más transitadas de la ciudad, finiquitando los problemas de congestión vial.

•

Correspondencia con los costos 1 ¿Cuál es la fuente de los costos e ingresos? 2 ¿Es confiable la fuente y cuál es? Puntaje: ______BUENO_______.

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Justificación: La fuente de costos estimados ha sido calculada por el Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP) y TRANSMILENIO S.A. así:

TRONCAL Américas NQS SUBA TOTAL

Longitud Km. 16.7 35.5 11 63.2

Costos Km US$ Mill. 94.8 134.2 43.2 272.2

Para la construcción de la troncales Américas, NQS y Suba se estimo US$ 272.2 millones los cuales están distribuidos en la adecuación de la malla vial, paraderos para la ruta de los alimentadores, estaciones en los corredores de troncales con facilidad de acceso peatonal, patios para el mantenimiento y estaciones de buses. De acuerdo al número de troncales que tienen hasta el momento construida y en funcionamiento, estaría en sobre costos ya que según el documento CONPES 3093 el costo estimado de infraestructura para el Sistema es de US$ 1.970 millones, lo cual en su actualidad la fase II no está totalmente construida.

•

Propuestas de mitigación a las externalidades del proyecto claramente definidas. 1 ¿Se han identificado externalidades del proyecto (positivas o negativas)? 2 ¿Es la acción de mitigación suficiente? 3 ¿En caso de ser positivas están justificadas?

Puntaje: _____ACEPTABLE______.

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Justificación: A partir de la entrada de TransMilenio se pudo observar que tuvo un impacto significativo sobre sus usuarios al mejorar la provisión del servicio de transporte. Los tiempos de viaje disminuyeron, la calidad y eficiencia del servicio aumentaron y en los corredores cubiertos por el nuevo sistema, tanto la congestión, como la contaminación, cayeron poco a poco. Sin embargo, la deficiente regulación del sistema de transporte público tradicional profundizaron las externalidades negativas de congestión en los corredores viales no cubiertos por TransMilenio, con efectos negativos sobre la contaminación y los tiempos de viaje. Estas externalidades fueron el resultado de la ineficacia del actual sistema de transporte masivo de la ciudad, en cuanto a la meta de chatarrización establecidas en el transcurso de la primera fase del sistema fue insuficiente, ya que la mayoría de los buses que operaban en los corredores de TransMilenio, fueron relocalizados hacia corredores del sistema tradicional empeorando los problemas de congestión. Para que la inversión de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio sea eficaz se deben tomar acciones frente a las externalidades negativas, teniendo en cuenta el bienestar de los transportadores de servicio público y que se dé una mejora en el transporte que contribuya a la reducción de gases contaminantes al medio ambiente.

El puntaje total de la propuesta es el promedio de los resultados obtenidos en cada uno de los 7 criterios anteriores. Puntaje total: ______BUENO________. 1. 2. 3. 4.

Deficiente Aceptable Bueno Sobresaliente

____ ____ _X__ ____

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Tabla 7. Etapa Preinversión.

MATRIZ DE CRITERIOS DE SELECCIÓN, ETAPA DE PREINVERSIÓN No RESULTADOS Aplicable Deficiente Aceptable Bueno Sobresaliente CRITERIO S

N.A

A. Pertinencia X

1. Información del diagnostico completa y de calidad 2. Coherencia interna del diagnóstico

X

3. La correspondencia de los objetivos con la necesidad a solucionar D. Integridad

X

4. Información de cada una de las alternativas completa y de calidad 5. La viabilidad de la alternativa seleccionada 6. Correspondencia con los costos regionales

X X X

12. Propuestas de mitigación a las externalidades del proyecto claramente definidas.

X

X

Total proyecto

Para la etapa de preinversión en el proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, se dio una calificación total de BUENO, ya que la formulación del proyecto presentado tiene en cuenta los aspectos en los que se basa la reducción de emisión de gases que causas el efecto invernadero, que son principalmente en la infraestructura, tipo de tecnología del bus y combustible.

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5.2.2. ETAPA DE INVERSIÓN EN MECANISMOS DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO CASO TRANSMILENIO FASE II.

La etapa de inversión es aquella en la cual se realiza el desembolso de recursos y ejecución física del proyecto definido en la etapa de preinversión. En esta fase se espera realizar lo previsto en la etapa de preinversión una vez realizados los ajustes que se consideren necesarios para llevar a cabo el proyecto en las circunstancias existentes en el momento de ponerse en marcha.

•

Claridad del diseño con relación a:
Insumos necesarios para el desarrollo del proyecto. 1¿Están definidos los recursos necesarios para llevar a cabo el proyecto? 2 ¿Son confiables las fuentes de la información y cuáles son? 3 ¿Están definidos los tiempos de entrega?

Puntaje: _____ACEPTABLE_______.

Justificación:

Según el CONPES 3093 el proyecto está estimado en US$ 1.970 millones que contempla la construcción de 388 Km. de troncales, que involucra infraestructura vial, la construcción de ciclo-rutas articuladas a la malla vial vehicular, la entrada en operación de 1.175 buses articulados para cubrir un 80% de viajes en la ciudad para la sustitución de los buses actuales y que contribuya a la reducción de emisión de gases contaminantes; Según el plan del distrito contempla esta construcción durante 16 años, para ello la Fase II de TransMilenio que comprende las troncales de las Américas, NQS, Av. los Cerros, CFS, Carrera 10, Carrera 7, Calle 6, Calle 26 y Av. suba con 131,4 Km. contemplada su construcción entre el año 2003 a 2006, el cual hasta la actualidad solo se ha cumplido con las troncales de las Américas, NQS y Av. Suba. Debido a la falta de financiamiento y el retraso de entrega de concesiones, no se ha cumplido con la ejecución del proyecto de acuerdo a su planteamiento inicial.

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Productos Esperados 1 ¿Está definido el beneficio esperado del proyecto? 2 ¿Está planeado de acuerdo a la disponibilidad de recursos? 3¿El proyecto cumple la expectativa como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio.

Puntaje: ______ACEPTABLE_____. Justificación:

El sistema de transporte urbano está basado en un Bus de Tránsito rápido, moderno, seguro, conveniente, eficaz y con un consumo menor de combustible que asegura los niveles de desplazamiento utilizando buses con nuevas tecnologías y con capacidad de transportar más usuarios, que transite sobre una red de corredores de troncales exclusivo y disminuya el tiempo por desplazamiento contribuyendo así a la reducción de gases contaminantes en el aire. De acuerdo a que la reducción de emisiones, se genera por los factores del tiempo de recorrido por viaje y a mayor numero pasajeros transportados se puede determinar que con los inconvenientes que han tenido en la construcción de la infraestructura y adquisición de los buses por parte de los Operadores, el Sistema no ha cumplido con las expectativas que se plantearon inicialmente en el proyecto como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio.

•

Manejo del riesgo
Consideración de las amenazas

1 ¿Existen amenazas posibles durante la ejecución del proyecto? 2 ¿Se han considerado?, ¿Cuáles?

Puntaje: ______ACEPTABLE_____.

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Justificación: El proyecto contempla dos barreras importantes en su ejecución: la primera, es la inversión, ya que los aportes que se cuentan para la construcción del sistema es dada por la Nación y el Distrito Capital los cuales los recursos destinados para esta construcción, solo se cuenta con el impuesto suplementario de la gasolina. La segunda, es la resistencia al cambio por parte de los operadores del servicio público colectivo y por la poca claridad de información para ser parte del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio. Es importante resaltar, que estas barreras deben ser superadas para cumplir con mayor eficiencia la reducción de gases contaminantes en la que se basa los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio.


Medidas previstas en caso de presentarse las amenazas 1¿Se han previsto medidas para minimizar el riesgo en caso de presentarse alguna amenaza o cuál sería la compensación? 2 ¿Son factibles las medidas para minimizar el riesgo?

Puntaje: _____BUENO_______. Justificación: En el caso de la inversión se contrajo un convenio en el 2001 entre TransMilenio S.A. y la Comunidad Andina de Fomento para la formulación del proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, que se basa en la reducción de emisión de gases contaminantes, a través de la ejecución del Sistema Transporte Masivo TransMilenio, el cual da la opción de la venta de un Certificado de Reducción de Emisiones que por medio de este se obtendría recursos para apalancar la construcción de infraestructura del sistema. Referente a la resistencia del sector transporte actual no se ven grandes avances en la participación de estos transportadores en el Sistema debido a la poca información que se da y que la mayoría de los transportadores no cuentan con las exigencias que se debe cumplir para participar por las concesiones en cada una de las Fases del Sistema.

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•

Claridad del proyecto con relación a:
Costos

1 ¿Cuál es la fuente de los costos estimados? 2 ¿Es confiable la fuente? 3 ¿Existe un cronograma de inversiones? 5 ¿De acuerdo a los resultados está sub o sobre valorado el proyecto?

Puntaje: ______ACEPTABLE______. Justificación: De acuerdo a la información del documento CONPES 3093 los costos que se llevarán a cabo en la infraestructura de las etapas Av. Suba, Av. Los Cerros, las Américas, Carrera 10, Calle 6, CFS, Carrera 7, Calle 170, Calle 26 y NQS es de US$ 565.6 Millones, de las cuales solo las etapas de las Américas, NQS y Av. Suba están construidas actualmente. El proyecto se encuentra sobre valorado frente al proyecto que presentaron de Mecanismo de Desarrollo limpio ante el Meth Panel, la construcción de la Fase II que se estimó fue de US$ 812.22 millones y el CONPES 3093 se calculo US$ 272.3 millones de la parte construida actualmente de la Fase II, cuesta más de lo que se había proyectado inicialmente.

• Ingresos 1 ¿Cuál es la fuente de los ingresos o recursos estimados? 2 ¿Es confiable la fuente?

Puntaje: _____BUENO_______.

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Justificación

Los ingresos para la construcción del Sistema de Transporte Masivo Transmilenio esta dado por los aportes que asigna el Gobierno Nacional y el Distrito con una participación del 64% y 36% respectivamente de los recaudados de sobrecarga al combustible que fue creada especialmente para este propósito. Conforme a la información del documento CONPES 3093 se define los aportes de la Nación y el Distrito para la construcción del Sistema de Transporte Masivo en todas sus fases; en este documento se puede observar que para la Fase II su construcción esta prevista entre los años 2001-2006 con un aporte de la Nación aproximadamente de US$ 330.6 millones y el Distrito US$ 210 millones, cálculos que realizo el Departamento Nacional de Planeación.

Vinculación de formas eficientes de participación

•

1 ¿Quiénes participaron en la ejecución del proyecto? 3 ¿Qué opinión tiene la comunidad del proceso? 4 ¿El proceso es considerado legítimo por la ciudadanía?

Puntaje: ______BUENO______. Justificación: En el proyecto participan la Empresa TransMilenio S.A. y la Comunidad Andina de Fomento quienes son los proponentes del Proyecto de TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. Para llevar a cabo este proyecto interviene tres actores los cuales son: •

Gestores: TransMilenio S.A. el cual se encarga de la planeación, gestión y control del Sistema de Transporte Masivo.

•

Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano: Se encarga de la construcción de vías y mantenimiento.

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•

Reguladores: son los Organismos de coordinación interinstitucional como el Ministerio de Transporte, Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá D.C. y Secretaria de Tránsito y Transporte los cuales son los responsables en formular políticas, directrices, regular el transito e imponer sanciones.

•

Agentes: Como los Operadores de Troncales, Operadores de Alimentación y Recaudador que bajo concesiones tiene la operación privada del sistema.

5.2.2.5. Calidad de la Ejecución 1 ¿En general como ha sido el proceso de ejecución? 2 ¿Qué opinión se tiene frente a la Inversión de los mecanismos de Desarrollo en el proceso? 3 ¿La ejecución genero externalidades positivas o negativas? Puntaje: ______ACEPTABLE______.

Justificación: El proceso de ejecución en el proyecto como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, cumple con objetivos en materia ambiental, al crear una área de gestión ambiental y contratar a personal que asumen el control del área dentro del marco de su contribución a la reducción de los niveles de contaminación de la ciudad, se realiza continuamente controles y seguimientos a los niveles de emisiones de vehículos mediante a la realización de pruebas y análisis de gases a los vehículos del sistema a fin de controlar los niveles de emisión. Por otra parte, frente a la inversión de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio en el proyecto y como externalidad positiva, se tiene en cuenta que el control de emisiones que realizan semestralmente a diferentes tipos de transporte en la ciudad, TransMilenio reporta los niveles más bajos de las pruebas, esto quiere decir que durante el 2006 se revisaron 776 vehículos en los cuales el promedio de emisión de gases de la flota se encuentra entre el 17.7% y el 98.2% que presenta niveles de emisión inferiores al 40%.

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Se puede concluir que lo invertido en infraestructura y capacidad vehicular, se está cumpliendo de manera poco progresiva en la reducción de emisiones, ya que aun no se ha cumplido con toda la construcción que se había planteado al principio del proyecto, el cual uno de los aspectos relevantes a tener en cuenta es que no se ha chatarrizado en totalidad los buses antiguos que todavía siguen en circulación en la ciudad.

El puntaje total de la propuesta es el promedio de los resultados obtenidos en cada uno de los criterios anteriores.

Puntaje total: ______ACEPTABLE______ (rango: 1-10)

1. 2. 3. 4.

Deficiente Aceptable Bueno Sobresaliente

____ __X_ ____ ____

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Tabla 8. Etapa Inversión.

MATRIZ DE CRITERIOS DE SELECCIÓN, ETAPA DE INVERSIÓN No RESULTADOS Aplicable Deficiente Aceptable Bueno Sobresaliente CRITERIO S

N.A

A. Diseño 1. Claridad del Diseño con relación a: Insumos necesarios para el desarrollo del proyecto. Productos esperados 2. Manejo del Riesgo:

X X X

Consideración de las amenazas Medidas previstas en caso de presentarse las amenazas 3. Claridad del proyecto con relación a: Costos Ingresos B. Ejecución 4. Vinculación de formas eficientes de participación 5. Calidad de la Ejecución.

X

X X X X X

Total proyecto

Para la etapa de inversión en el proyecto TransMilenio como mecanismo de desarrollo limpio, se dio una calificación total de ACEPTABLE, ya que la infraestructura y capacidad presentada en el proyecto no esta construida en su totalidad, y el financiamiento para esta no ha sido lo suficiente por que únicamente se tiene como principal fuente la Nación y el Distrito, lo cual hace que objetivos propuestos se retrasen para Cumplir con la reducción de Gases que causan el Efecto Invernadero propuesto.

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5.2.3. ETAPA DE OPERACIÓN EN MECANISMOS DE DESARROLLO LIMPIO CASO TRANSMILENIO FASE II. En esta etapa corresponde a la puesta en marcha del proyecto, donde se comienzan a concretar los beneficios esperados de este, de acuerdo a la programación realizada en la preinversión y en el ajuste del diseño definitivo. A. •

Nivel micro Indicador de eficiencia 1¿La estructura es eficiente y rentable como mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio para la ciudad? 2 ¿Cuenta Con los insumos necesarios para la operación?

Puntaje: ____ ACEPTABLE____ Justificación: La estructura como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio en cuanto a las acciones de funcionamiento, desarrollo y ejecución del sistema TransMilenio están distribuidos entre organismos del Distrito por asignación de competencias. Para la prestación del servicio del Sistema de Transporte Masivo, no es eficiente financieramente para la infraestructura ya que el distrito únicamente apoya un 50% para cubrir las necesidades en la Malla Vial de la ciudad, y por otra parte los operadores no cuentan con los recursos suficientes para la compra de buses con las características que se necesitan para operar en el sistema. Por otra parte, los operadores con base al formato único de captura de información ambiental, diligenciado por los operadores, se quiere lograr consolidar una base de datos recogiendo información sobre los principales insumos que hace relación a las entradas y salidas para la operación, como el combustible, aceites, filtros, baterías, llantas, grasas, catalizadores, agua y otros, esta selección de estos insumos se hace con base en dos criterios: su importancia como insumo para la operación y su potencial de contaminación y necesidad de un manejo adecuado, para contribuir a la gestión ambiental que se esta llevando a cabo.

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•

Mejoramiento en la calidad del servicio

1¿De acuerdo al problema planteado a solucionar por el proyecto se ha venido mejorando la situación?

Puntaje: ____ ACEPTABLE____ .

Justificación:

El proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, comprende la ejecución de un Sistema de Transporte Masivo basado en Buses de Transito Rápido (BRT) con tecnologías que contribuyan a un desplazamiento más eficiente, con mayor capacidad de transportar pasajeros y el uso de combustible con menos CO2 el cual ayudan a mejorar la calidad de aire en Bogotá, reduciendo la emisiones de los Gases de Efecto Invernadero que permitan la venta de Certificados de Reducción de Emisiones según lo establecido en el Protocolo de Kyoto.

•

Mejoramiento en la capacidad institucional al interior del proyecto

1 ¿Cómo se ha organizado la operación del proyecto? 2 ¿Ha sido eficiente esta forma de organización? 3 ¿Cómo se ha desenvuelto? 4 ¿Ha sido eficiente? 5 ¿Se ha mejorado el desempeño de la entidad ejecutora en comparación con otros proyectos?

Puntaje: ____ ACEPTABLE_____

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Justificación: El sistema de operación de TransMilenio incluye servicios troncales y servicios alimentadores, provistos por empresas privadas, bajo condiciones establecidas en contratos de concesión otorgados por TRANSMILENIO S.A. Los componentes del sistema de operación incluyen los servicios troncales y alimentadores y los operadores de estos servicios. Servicios Troncales: circulan principalmente por corredores exclusivos iniciando y terminando su recorrido en los Portales. Los vehículos sólo se pueden detener a dejar y recoger pasajeros en las estaciones. En el corredor troncal sólo opera el servicio de transporte masivo TransMilenio, es decir, está prohibida la circulación de vehículos de transporte colectivo. Existen servicios troncales de dos tipos: expresos o corrientes. Los servicios expresos se detienen solamente en estaciones determinadas. Los servicios corrientes sirven todas las estaciones a lo largo del recorrido. La combinación de expresos y alimentadores pueden llevar hasta 45 mil pasajeros por hora por sentido; en las primeras 3 troncales se proyecta que el sistema movilizará 36 mil pasajeros por hora por sentido en el tramo más cargado. Los vehículos que se utilizarán en los servicios troncales de TransMilenio son especialmente diseñados para el transporte urbano de pasajeros. Tienen una capacidad iguales o superiores a 160 pasajeros por vehículo. El mantenimiento de los vehículos TransMilenio exige el cumplimiento de un plan de manejo de convertidores catalíticos, y de los siguientes residuos de la operación: aceites y lubricantes, llantas, baterías, vidrios plásticos y partes metálicas. Servicios Alimentadores: Mediante los Servicios Alimentadores, una persona que vive en un barrio periférico, tiene la posibilidad de tomar un vehículo que lo lleva desde su barrio hasta un Portal o una Estación Intermedia, en donde transborda al servicio troncal, para viajar en forma tranquila, rápida y segura hasta su destino, con el pago de un solo pasaje. Los servicios alimentadores circulan por las vías de los barrios, compartiéndolas con los demás vehículos. En promedio, son recorridos de aproximadamente 4 kilómetros que se encuentran permanentemente en operación y son sincronizados con los servicios troncales con el objetivo de que el tiempo de espera de los pasajeros sea mínimo. En los servicios alimentadores, se utilizan vehículos de capacidad media y baja que pueden prestar el servicio de transporte colectivo actualmente. Sin embargo, se ha incentivado a los operadores a utilizar buses nuevos de alta capacidad y última tecnología, para facilitar la renovación del parque automotor existente, mejorando sus especificaciones.

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Empresas operadoras: La operación de los servicios troncales y alimentadores, está a cargo de empresas privadas especializadas y fortalecidas para dar cumplimento al sistema, estas empresas operadoras son escogidas a través de procesos licitatorios abiertos, en los cuales se solicita la superación de requisitos financieros, legales y técnicos estrictos, y se evalúan condiciones que garantizan la mejor selección de acuerdo con los principios de TransMilenio.

•

Indicador de cobertura.

1 ¿Se ha cubierto lo propuesto en la formulación del proyecto? 2 ¿Se han llevado a cabo acciones en el transcurso de la operación de acuerdo a los inconvenientes presentados? 3 ¿cómo ha repercutido la gestión ambiental en el entorno? Puntaje: ____ ACEPTABLE____ Justificación: De acuerdo a lo planteado en la formulación del proyecto, se espera que su ejecución y el desarrollo de la totalidad del Sistema TransMilenio alcance una cobertura del 85% del área urbana en el año 2015, pero dadas las circunstancias en las que se ha llevado a cabo el proyecto y que en la actualidad la fase II no esta completamente construida ya que estaba estimada su construcción total para el año 2006, esto hace que no entren en circulación nuevos vehículos por que no se ha cumplido el proceso de chatarrización debido a los inconvenientes presentados en la parte financiera y los acuerdos que no se han llevado en buen termino de beneficios tanto para los transportadores como para el gobierno. Con relación a lo ejecutado hasta el momento y en gestión ambiental, se ha llevado a cabo mejorías en las zonas que anteriormente tenían bastante flujo vehicular y altos niveles de contaminación, pero esta mejoría no cubre su totalidad en las zonas que aun no se ha implementado el sistema, ya que el transporte público colectivo se reubico en estas partes obstruyendo las vías y generando contaminación donde antes del sistema no era tan frecuente.

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•

Viabilidad de los objetivos alcanzados

1. ¿El tamaño del proyecto hace posible el cumplimiento de los objetivos ambientales? 2. ¿Los recursos son suficientes para cumplir con los objetivos? 3. ¿Los objetivos ambientales propuestos son factibles a su cumplimiento? Puntaje: _______BUENO______. Justificación: La capacidad instalada en comparación con la estimada para la Fase II, en cuanto al número de buses que están en circulación a Diciembre de 2006 se muestra en la siguiente tabla: FASE II 2001 -2006

Longitud (Km.) 63.2

Infraestructura (US$ mil) 272.2

Buses Previstos 849

No. Buses Activos 720

Fuente: Conpes 3093 Sistema de Servicio Público Urbano de transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogotá.

De acuerdo con los datos observados anteriormente se puede destacar, que hay una diferencia de 129 buses que no están en circulación lo cual hace que se presente un déficit en cuanto al tamaño presupuestado del proyecto. El proyecto del Sistema de Transporte Masivo TransMilenio está estimado para su implementación en toda la ciudad de Bogotá, este cuenta con una sostenibilidad graduable, ya que depende del flujo de recursos previsto para su financiamiento; el esquema de financiación propuesto para la infraestructura del sistema TransMilenio se considera en aportes de la Nación y del Distrito, lo que hace difícil la construcción de la infraestructura y cubrimiento de capacidad de usuarios transportados.

Por lo anterior, el compromiso ambiental en la operación se observa poca reducción de la emisión de gases contaminantes ante esta dificultad, ya que TransMilenio busca fortalecer una articulación integral de la gestión ambiental, en sus procesos y resultados garantizando la prestación del servicio con calidad para el usuario y contribuyendo al ambiente.

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El puntaje total de la propuesta es el promedio de los resultados obtenidos en cada uno de los criterios anteriores. Puntaje total: ____ ACEPTABLE_____.

5. 6. 7. 8.

Deficiente Aceptable Bueno Sobresaliente

____ __X__ ____ ____

Tabla 9. Etapa Operación. MATRIZ DE CRITERIOS DE SELECCIÓN, ETAPA DE OPERACION No Aplicable Deficiente Aceptable Bueno Sobresaliente RESULTADOS N.A CRITERIO S

A. Nivel Micro 1. Indicador de Eficiencia

X

2. Mejoramiento en la calidad del servicio

X

3. Mejoramiento en la capacidad institucional al interior del proyecto 4. Indicador de Cobertura

X X

5. Viabilidad de los objetivos alcanzados

X

X

Total proyecto

Para la etapa de Operación en el proyecto TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio, se dio una calificación total de ACEPTABLE, ya que en la ejecución de la operación no cumplieron con la capacidad estimada de Buses para la prestación del servicio en la ciudad, de igual forma no se cubrió con totalidad la malla vial y los arreglos que le realizan frecuentemente perjudican los tiempos de desplazamiento. Por otra parte el proceso de chatarrización no ha llevado a cabo la destrucción de los buses propuestos, perjudicando las vías alternas donde ahora transitan estos buses que no están sometidos en el proceso, el cual hace que la reducción de emisión de gases no genere un mayor impacto en la ciudad.

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CONCLUSIONES

La puesta en marcha del Sistema de Transporte Masivo en la Ciudad ha sido un logro significativo en el mejoramiento del transporte público, debido a que este sistema utiliza sendas especializadas para su recorrido, estaciones para que el usuario acceda al servicio, generando una eficiencia en el desplazamiento y contribuyendo a mejorar la movilidad en la Ciudad.

La participación de empresas privadas en la prestación del servicio del Sistema de Transporte Masivo, contribuye al cumplimiento de las condiciones ambientales que TransMilenio como ente gestor, contempla para hacer más eficiente su gestión ambiental durante la operación.

El ahorro en tiempo de viajes con mayor capacidad de transportar usuarios, se constituye en la variable que más aporta en la reducción de emisión de gases contaminantes, la cual esta variable se ve afectada por la falta de adecuación, diversos arreglos en la malla vial y terminación de infraestructura para el desplazamiento de los buses, generando así poca efectividad en la reducción de emisiones el cual es el objetivo del proyecto como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio.

En cuanto a la calidad del aire en la ciudad, se ha observado que ha mejorado notablemente en las vías más importantes de la ciudad, donde actualmente transita TransMilenio, pero este mejoramiento es opacado por la reasignación de rutas a vías no aptas para el transporte público afectando estas, con ruido, congestión y contaminación que antes no era usual en esas zonas.

La inversión inicial del proyecto TransMilenio esta dada por los aportes de la nación y el distrito, este, al ser aprobado como Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio no se ve evidenciada una inversión diferente a estos dos entes, mientras que se realizan los monitoreos para verificar la reducción real de emisiones generadas por el proyecto para la venta de los CER´s.

Los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio, constituyen una opción para que las empresas empiecen a generar proyectos que impliquen la implementación de procesos productivos y administrativos contribuyendo con el mejoramiento del medio ambiente.

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El Meth Panel como ente que aprueba los proyectos de Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio, cuenta con la suficiente competencia para la validación de los proyectos haciendo cumplir el objetivo principal que es contribuir a la reducción de gases que causan el Efecto Invernadero, brindando beneficios tanto para el país donde se ejecuta el proyecto como para el que compra los certificados, siendo así una colaboración mutua para un desarrollo sostenible y el cumplimiento de las reducciones.

El país cuenta con reglamentación ambiental como la Política Nacional de Producción mas Limpia, que brinda herramientas y bases para que adquieran una conciencia ambiental en los procesos productivos, haciendo de esta una alternativa para generar productos y servicios de mejor calidad para el medio ambiente.

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REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRAFICAS

Grütter Consulting, TransMilenio S.A., Comunidad Andina de Fomento (CAF). BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV. Naciones Unidas. Protocolo de Kyoto de la Convención Marco de Las Naciones Unidas Sobre el Cambio Climático. 1998. Pág.13-14. Contraloría General de la Nación. Estado de los Recursos Naturales y del Ambiente 2003-204 Colombia. Julio del 2004 Departamento Nacional de Planeación. Documento CONPES 3093, Sistema de Servicio Publico Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogotá, seguimiento. Bogotá D.C., 15 de Noviembre 2000. Caparro Irma. Evaluación de Impacto Socioeconómico del Transporte Urbano en la Ciudad de Bogotá. El caso del sistema de transporte masivo, TransMilenio. CEPAL, Naciones Unidas. Santiago de Chile, Octubre de 2002. Pág. 11-27 Mesa Temática Interinstitucional de Bogotá D.C. Estabilidad Climática y proyectos de Desarrollo Limpio, con Potencial a Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio-MDL. Mitigación del Cambio Climático en el Sector Transporte – TransMilenio como Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. Bogotá, 13 Diciembre de 2006. Oficina Colombiana para la Mitigación del Cambio Climático - Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Desarrollo Territorial, Ministerio de Transporte. Estrategia para la implementación del Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio en el Sector Transporte. Bogotá D.C. Febrero 2003. Ministerio del Medio Ambiente – Oficina para la Mitigación del Cambio Climático, Ministerio de Transporte. Plan de Trabajo para el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. Bogotá D.C. 21 de Octubre de 2002. Maturana Córdoba Aymer. Departamento Administrativo del Medio Ambiente (DAMA) Transporte Limpio: Una vía hacia la mejora de la calidad de Aire en Bogotá D.C. Bogotá. 22 Noviembre 2006. Pág.46. Mendieta Juan Carlos. Análisis del Impacto Ambiental de la Segunda Fase del Proyecto de Servicios Urbanos para Bogotá, Reporte Final. Bogotá. 27 de Febrero de 2007. UNODC – Colombia proyecto AD/COL/I21. Controlando el Cambio Climático y Protegiendo el Medio Ambiente. Naciones Unidas, Ministerio de Ambiente,

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Vivienda y Desarrollo Territorial, Universidad Universidad Tuscia. Bogotá DC. Mayo de 2007.

Nacional

de

Colombia,

Jiménez Poveda Pedro Luis. Evaluación Ex – post del Sistema TransMilenio. Bogotá. 22 de Noviembre de 2005. Presentación. Miranda Miranda Juan José, Gestión de Proyectos Identificación - Formulación y Evaluación. MB editores, Bogotá 1997 Pág. 7 a la 34. Castaño Mesa Lina María. Marco Conceptual y operativo del Banco de proyectos exitosos. CEPAL, Departamento Nacional de Planeación. Santiago de Chile, Diciembre de 2000. http://www.TransMilenio.gov.co/nuevapagina/index.asp?id=383 http://www.idu.gov.co/sist_trans/infraestruc_TransMilenio.h

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ANEXO La investigación incluye 1 anexo. BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV.

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BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV

PDD prepared by

on behalf of

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

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CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM-PDD) Version 02 - in effect as of: 1 July 2004 CONTENTS A.

General description of project activity

B.

Application of a baseline methodology

C.

Duration of the project activity / Crediting period

D.

Application of a monitoring methodology and plan

E.

Estimation of GHG emissions by sources

F.

Environmental impacts

G.

Stakeholders’ comments Annexes

Annex 1: Contact information on participants in the project activity Annex 2: Information regarding public funding Annex 3: Baseline information Annex 4: Monitoring plan

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SECTION A. General description of project activity A.1

Title of the project activity:

BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II to IV Version 4.1 September 6th 2006

A.2.

Description of the project activity:

The goal of TransMilenio is to establish a sustainable mass urban transport system based on a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. TransMilenio phase II-IV which is the project presented is an extension of phase I. Phase I is not part of this CDM project. The first crediting period includes Phase II, III and part of phase IV. All data listed refers to the first crediting period if not mentioned otherwise. Core aspects of TransMilenio are: ¾ A new infrastructure consisting of dedicated lanes, large capacity buses, and elevated bus stations that allow pre-board ticketing and fast boarding. Smaller units offering feeder services to main stations are integrated in the system. ¾ A new integrated fare system allowing for free transfers. ¾ Improved bus management system moving from many small independent enterprises competing at bus-to-bus level to a consolidated structure with formal enterprises competing for concessions. ¾ Centralized coordinated fleet control providing monitoring and communications to schedule services and real-time response to contingencies. ¾ Reduction of the existing fleet of buses through a scrappage program. Through scrapping more than 9’000 buses TransMilenio retires more than 1/3rd of all conventional buses and reduces the risk of a declining efficiency (load factor) in the remaining system. The objective of TransMilenio is to establish an efficient, safe, rapid, convenient, comfortable and effective modern mass transit system ensuring high ridership levels. TransMilenio is a public-private partnership (PPP), in which the public sector is responsible for the investment to deploy the required infrastructure (segregated lanes, stations, terminals, etc.), while the private sector is responsible for the investment of the bus fleet, the ticket selling and validating system, and for the operation of the trunk and feeder services. TransMilenio Phases II onwards will be implemented gradually. By 2012 it is expected that TransMilenio consist of1: ¾ 130 km of new dedicated lanes (trunk routes) including new bus-stations ¾ Around 1’200 new articulated buses with a capacity of 160 passengers, operating on trunk routes and 500 new large buses operating on feeder lines. ¾ Daily 1.8 million passengers transported. TransMilenio has as main environmental aspect that the resource efficiency of transporting passengers in Bogotá is improved i.e. emissions per passenger trip are reduced compared to the situation without project. This is realized through following changes: ¾ Improved efficiency: new and larger buses are used which have an improved fuel efficiency per passenger transported compared with those used in absence of the project. ¾ Mode switching: The BRT system is more attractive to clients due to reduced transport times, increased safety, reliability and comfort. It can thus attract private car or taxi users with higher emission rates to switch to public transport. 1

All data mentioned is always exclusive of TransMilenio Phase I

This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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¾ Load increase or change in occupancy: BRT systems have a centrally managed organisation dispatching vehicles. The occupancy rate of vehicles can thus be increased due to organizational measures. The project contributes to sustainable development in a significant manner: ¾ Improved environment through less GHG and other air pollutant emissions, specifically CO2, particle matter, and NOx. This is achieved through a more efficient transport system and through new buses2. ¾ Improved social wellbeing as a result of less time lost in congestion, less respiratory diseases due to less particle matter pollution, less noise pollution and fewer accidents per passenger transported3. ¾ Creation of more than 1’500 temporary construction jobs for unskilled workers of the surrounding communities for construction works of Phase II4. ¾ Economic benefits mainly on a macroeconomic level. Bogotá can improve its competitive position by offering an attractive and modern transit system and can reduce the economic costs of congestion. The project complies with all legal requirements of the environmental legislation of Colombia, enforced by the Department of Environmental Affairs (DAMA). It also complies with the social and environmental guidelines issued by IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano) and the CAF (Andean Development Corporation). All environmental permits required have been granted. A.3.

Project participants:

Name of Party involved (*) ((host) indicates a host Party)

Private and/or public entity(ies) project participants (*) (as applicable)

Colombia (host) The Netherlands

TransMilenio S.A. Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) acting as intermediary for the benefit of the State of the Netherlands for the purchase of Emission Reductions represented by its Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment

A.4.

Kindly indicate if the Party involved wishes to be considered as project participant (Yes/No) No Yes

Technical description of the project activity: A.4.1. Location of the project activity: A.4.1.1.

Host Party(ies):

A.4.1.2.

Region/State/Province etc.:

A.4.1.3.

City/Town/Community etc:

Colombia

Capital District

Bogotá 2

See chapter F.2. for a quantification of local environmental benefits

3

In Phase I a reduction of 89% of fatal accidents and of 83% of accidents with passengers injured was registered (see D. Hidalgo, TransMilenio: Un Sistema de Transporte Masivo en Buses de Alta Capacidad y Bajo Costo para Bogotá, Colombia, 1/2003) 4

IDU, Registro generación de empleo de las localidades de Bosa y Ciudad Bolívar. Tramo 3; contrato 242-03, 2006

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A.4.1.4. Detail of physical location, including information allowing the unique identification of this project activity (maximum one page): The project is located within the metropolitan area of the city of Bogotá, Colombia. A.4.2. Category(ies) of project activity: Sectoral scope 7: Transport listed in the sectoral scopes for accreditation of the operational entities There is no category of project activity defined for this type of project. It is proposed that it be assigned to “Urban mass-transit” A.4.3. Technology to be employed by the project activity: Features of the BRT system of TransMilenio include exclusive right-of-way lanes, rapid boarding and alighting, free transfers between lines, pre-board fare collection and fare verification, enclosed stations, clear route maps, real-time information displays, automatic vehicle location technology to manage vehicle movements, modal integration at stations, effective reform of the existing institutional structures for public transit, clean vehicle technologies and excellence in marketing and customer service. The BRT system of TransMilenio is considered as model-case for a modern mass urban transit system and is being replicated by various cities world-wide. From an organizational viewpoint the system has regulators, managers and operators: ¾ Regulators: The Ministry of Transport in charge of national policies and plans and the Municipality of Bogotá especially the transit and transport secretariat ¾ Managers including TransMilenio which plans, manages and controls the BRT system and IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano) which constructs and maintains the infrastructure. Both form part of the municipality of Bogotá. ¾ Operators including trunk route operators, feeder line operators and the fare collection operator. Operators are private sector entities. Operators have termed contracts awarded in an open and competitive bidding process by TransMilenio. The technology deployed has 4 main components. Infrastructure, buses, transit management and fare system. Infrastructure The project will establish till 2012 around 130km of dedicated bus lanes including new bus-stations and integration stations located at the end of dedicated bus lanes to ensure a smooth transfer to feeder lines. Each station will have a modular design with obstacle-free waiting areas and elevated level-access to articulated buses with a high platform. Stations will have access ramps for mobility-impaired passengers and selected stations will have bicycle parking and storage facilities. Bus Technology Bus technology used are to a minor extent Euro II buses (compulsory since model-year 2001) and to a majority Euro III units. For the phase IV no definition of standards has yet been made. Buses operating on dedicated lanes are new articulated buses with a capacity of 160 persons with platform-level access including room for disabled persons. Feeder buses are new buses with a capacity of 70-90 passengers. For CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) buses special incentives are given. The emissions of TransMilenio buses are significantly lower compared to conventional buses operating in Bogotá currently, which are mostly Euro 0 or older. Diesel used for trunk routes in TransMilenio contains significantly less sulphur than normal diesel available in Colombia. All operators of trunk routes have their own filling stations and regular controls are realized to ensure that emission specifications are met. This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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The technology used can be considered Environmentally Sound Technology (EST) and is significantly better than the Business As Usual technology used currently for buses in Colombia. Table A.4.3. shows the emissions of buses depending on the Euro-Category, while the graph shows the emission reductions of particle matter and NOx which constitute the main pollution problem of diesel engines. Table A.4.3: European Emission Limits for Heavy Duty Vehicles (g/kWh)5 Test cycle Total HC Non-Methane HC NOx Particulate Matter Euro 0 13-mode 2.6 --15.8 no limit Euro 1 13-mode 1.23 --9.0 0.4 Euro 2 13-mode 1.10 --7.0 0.15 0.66 --5.0 0.10 Euro 3 ESC6 0.78 1.6 5.0 0.16 ETC7 Euro 4 ESC 0.46 --3.5 0.02 ETC 0.55 1.1 3.5 0.03 Source: Regulations 88/77/EWG for Euro 0; 91/542/EWG for Euro I and II; 1999/96/EG for Euro III and IV Figure A.4.3: Emissions of Particle Matter and NOx according to Euro Standard (Indexed)8 120 100 Index

80 60 40 20 0 Euro 0

Euro I

Euro II Particle Matter

Euro III

Euro IV

NOx

Source: Table A.4.3.

Transit Management The operational fleet centre manages bus dispatch, informs passengers, produces reports and maintains records. All buses (trunk route buses as well as feeder buses) from Phase II onwards are equipped with a Global Positioning System (GPS) linked to the operation centre. The novelty of the operational fleet centre is that an efficient management of bus fleets can take place optimizing load factors through coordinated scheduling of service. The transit system operates on concessions eliminating competition at bus-tobus level. Also passengers have real-time information about the next available bus and are informed of potential transit problems. Fare System

5

CO is not included as HDVs do not emit significant amounts of this pollutant

6

European Standard Cycle

7

European Transient Cycle

8

Euro 0 standard had no particulate limits

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The system is based on pre-board ticketing using magnetic ticketing. This streamlines the boarding process and optimizes operations. The fare system integrates feeder and main lines. Fare collection is centralized and managed by a private company through a concession. A.4.4. Brief explanation of how the anthropogenic emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHGs) by sources are to be reduced by the proposed CDM project activity, including why the emission reductions would not occur in the absence of the proposed project activity, taking into account national and/or sectoral policies and circumstances: The project replaces the conventional transport system through one which improves the resource efficiency of transporting passengers and reduces significantly the emissions per passenger transported. Emission reductions are basically the result of systemic improvements plus a modal shift towards public transport. Emission reductions are caused by the following changes: ¾ Renewal of bus fleet: TransMilenio uses new buses with state-of-the-art technology while baseline buses are on average 15 years and older. The new units have an improved fuel efficiency and lower GHG and local emissions. ¾ Increased capacity of buses: TransMilenio uses larger units with a capacity of 160 passengers per bus on trunk routes. Conventional buses are much smaller. Emissions per passenger-kilometre can thus be reduced. ¾ Improved operating conditions for buses: Confined, segregated bus lanes together with bus-priority traffic signals allow buses on the route to operate more efficiently and without interference from other traffic thus reducing fuel consumption and GHG emissions. The conventional system is based on competition for passengers between buses on the same route without having segregated lanes for public transport. ¾ Centralized bus-fleet control: This allows for a coordinated scheduling of bus services that dynamically adjusts bus frequency with demand to result in fewer buses scheduled in off-peak hours. The load factor of buses is thus optimized leading to lower emissions per passenger transported. The conventional system is based on a large number of very small bus companies without schedule coordination operating with low load factors at off-peak hours as individual owners continue operating as long as variable costs are covered while a centrally controlled system optimizes total cost resulting in an optimal load factor of buses all the time. ¾ Mode shift: The BRT system is more attractive to clients thus inducing a switch from high-emission transport modes such as passenger cars or taxis to a low-emission transport mode. The increased attractiveness of the BRT system is based on having a faster, more reliable, safer and more convenient transport system9. TransMilenio is clearly more comfortable, safer and reduces the total trip time compared to the conventional bus system10. ¾ Introduction of fare pre-payment technology thus streamlining the boarding process and reducing bus-idle GHG emissions. Indirectly TransMilenio also reduces GHG emissions of other vehicles circulating in the influence region of TransMilenio due to improved traffic conditions as a result of an elimination of interference from buses competing for passengers with other vehicles. These (indirect) emission reductions are however not claimed by the project.

9

A survey realized in Colombia indicated comfort, usefulness, reduced trip time and safety as the most important motives for modal switch (Steer Davis Gleave, 2002, Encuesta de Preferencias Declaradas; Estudio sobre estimación de usuarios de transporte privado a ser desplazados por el sistema TransMilenio) 10

The total average trip duration in Bogotá could be reduced by 32% on routes operated by TransMilenio (source D. Hidalgo (vice-director TransMilenio), TransMilenio: Un sistema de transporte masivo en buses de alta capacidad y bajo costo para Bogota, Colombia, 2003)

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TransMilenio reduces the existing fleet of buses through a scrappage program. Operators of trunk routes will scrap on average 7.7 buses per articulated bus entering services. Through scrapping in total some 9’000 buses TransMilenio retires more than 1/3rd of all conventional buses and reduces the risk of a declining efficiency (load factor) in the remaining system. Its implementation is controlled by IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano). In absence of the project activity the current transport system including the TransMilenio phase I would continue operating supplemented by certain policy changes already implemented (e.g. vehicle restriction policies). The transport system would thus continue to be to a large extent inefficient and with high emissions per passenger transported. Also the policies enforced would not have the desired outcome as an effective alternative supply mean of transport would not exist thus not provoking a modal switch. The above mentioned improvements could not be realized under this business as usual scenario. All relevant national, regional and local transport policies have been included in the baseline. The emission reductions would not occur in the absence of the project activity basically due to financial and investment barriers as the costs of implementing phase II and following is significantly higher than anticipated while the municipality has limited resources. Also political barriers exist towards implementing a 2nd phase due to other priorities of the new government. Last but not least the existing transport sector opposes in general an expansion of TransMilenio as they fear a loss of business. These barriers prevent the implementation of phase II and following in absence of the project. The barriers are discussed in greater detail in Section B.3. A.4.4.1. Estimated amount of emission reductions over the chosen crediting period: Years 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total estimated reductions 1st crediting period (tonnes of CO2eq) Total number of crediting years (1st crediting period) Annual average over the crediting period of estimated reductions (tonnes of CO2eq)

Annual estimation of emission reductions in tonnes of CO2eq 94,567 134,011 230,201 304,432 298,719 336,735 327,276 1,725,940 7 246,563

Emission reductions increase over time as the system is implemented in a gradual manner. The above table only includes the 1st crediting period. A.4.5. Public funding of the project activity: There is no Official Development Assistance in this project and the project will not receive any public funding from Parties included in Annex I. Funding is from the national and the district government through budgetary allocations and does not include any official development assistance and is not counted towards the financial obligations of Annex 1 parties. SECTION B. Application of a baseline methodology B.1.

Title and reference of the approved baseline methodology applied to the project activity:

“Baseline Methodology for Bus Rapid Transit Projects” AM031 This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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B.1.1. Justification of the choice of the methodology and why it is applicable to the project activity: The methodology is applicable as the project activity reduces emissions through the construction and operation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system for urban road based transport. Table B.1. relates the specific baseline methodology applicability conditions with the proposed project. Table B.1. Applicability Conditions Applicability condition The project has a clear plan how to reduce existing public transport capacities either through scrapping, permit restrictions, economic instruments or other means and replacing them by a BRT system. Local regulations do not constrain the establishment or expansion of a BRT system. Fuels used in the baseline and/or project case are unblended gasoline, diesel, LNG or CNG. Projects using bio-fuels either in the baseline or project case are not eligible to use this methodology.

Project situation TransMilenio phase II onwards has a scrapping program to retire conventional public transport units with a scrappage rate of on average 7.7 units per articulated bus introduced by the BRT system. TransMilenio Phase II and following comply with all local and national regulations. No regulations exist constraining the expansion of TransMilenio. The project fuel used is exclusively diesel. No bio-fuels are used. The project case is the new bus system and does not include other modes of transport. Taxis, passenger cars, other buses and other modes of transport except TransMilenio do not form part of the project, are outside the project boundary (see project boundary B4. “Emissions sources not considered”) and are not monitored. Other modes of transport are only relevant for calculating baseline emissions. The baseline fuel used by more than 90%11 of public transport (buses) is diesel. No bio-fuels are used. The baseline fuel used by passenger cars and by taxis is to over 90% unblended gasoline. According to the resolution 180687 dated June 17th 2003 Art. 5 gasoline shall be blended in Bogotá with 10% ethanol as per latest 27th of September of 200512. As per January 1st 2006 this policy has not been implemented. According to EB 22 report Annex 3 “Clarifications on the consideration of national and/or sectoral policies and circumstances in baseline scenarios (version 02)” this is a national regulation that gives comparative advantages to less emission-intensive technologies (type E- policy). According to Art. 7 of the above mentioned document “National and/or sectoral policies or regulations under paragraph 6 (b) (type E- policies) that have been implemented since the adoption by the COP of the CDM M&P (decision 17/CP.7, 11 November 2001) need not be taken into account in developing a baseline scenario (i.e. the baseline scenario could refer to a hypothetical situation without the national and/or sectoral policies or regula-

11

Fuel types diesel/gasoline/CNG/LPG/LNG per category need only be listed separately if their respective share is larger than 10% according to page 6 of the approved baseline methodology.

12

The law 693 dated 27.9.2001 to which regulation 180687 refers, calls for an oxygenation of fuels without making the usage of ethanol compulsory for this purpose. World-wide oxygenation of gasoline was and is made primarily with MTBE and not through the usage of ethanol. Law 693 also does not specify a certain blending level (the applicability condition of the methodology allows blending of up to 3%). Law 693 can thus be considered a general policy to promote the oxygenation of gasoline fuels without specifying neither the usage of bio-fuels nor a certain blending level. This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

The BRT system as well as the baseline public transport system and other public transport options are road-based. The BRT system partially or fully replaces a traditional public transport system in a given city. The methodology cannot be used for BRT systems in areas where currently no public transport is available. The methodology is applicable if the analysis of possible baseline scenario alternatives leads to the result that a continuation of the current public transport system is the scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity (i.e. the baseline scenario)

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tions being in place).” The regulation requiring blending with ethanol was issued after Nov 11th 2001 and the implementation deadline was 27th September 2005, well after 11.11.2001. In practice the policy has not been implemented till 1.1.2006 (start of the crediting period of the proposed project). The baseline fuel used by passenger cars and taxis can thus be considered as unblended gasoline i.e. the baseline fuel refers to a hypothetical situation without the national regulation being in place as clarified by the EB 22 Annex 3. Neither the project nor any baseline vehicle categories thus use bio-fuels. The current public transport system, other public transport options as well as the BRT system are exclusively road-based. The BRT system replaces gradually the existing public transport system without replacing Phase I of TransMilenio which is not part of this project. Public transport is available in Bogotá in areas of operation/influence of TransMilenio phases II-IV. Section B.3. of the PDD identifies the baseline as a continuation of the current public transport system

All applicability conditions for using the methodology are thus fulfilled. . B.2. Description of how the methodology is applied in the context of the project activity: IDENTIFICATION OF THE BASELINE Steps followed to identify the baseline are: ¾ Step 1: Identify all alternatives ¾ Step 2: Analyze options using the latest version of the “Tool for the demonstration and assessment of additionality” ¾ Step 3: If step 2 results in more than one possible scenario, the baseline scenario is the one with the lowest emissions. Step 1: Identification of Alternatives The baseline alternatives assessed are: 1. Establishment of a rail-based public transport system 2. Complete operational restructuring of the public transport system 3. Continuation of the current system including improvements based on national, regional or local policies. The continuation of the current system includes the continuation of TransMilenio phase I. 4. Implementing the project (TransMilenio phase II and following) without CDM Step 2: Analysis of Alternatives ALTERNATIVE 1: RAIL-BASED SYSTEM

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The alternative is a rail based system for high passenger capacity. The national planning department of Colombia compared in the year 2000 as potential alternatives a BRT with a metro based system for the city of Bogotá13. The metro was considered as inferior to the BRT due to various reasons: ¾ The estimated infrastructure investment for the metro was estimated in more than double than for the BRT system (4,007 million USD versus 1,970 million USD). ¾ The investment cost per kilometre was estimated at 107 million USD versus 5 million USD for the BRT system. The cost per kilometre is thus more than 20-times higher for metro than for the BRT alternative. ¾ The cost benefit calculation including social and environmental benefits calculated at shadow prices were double for the BRT versus the metro. ¾ The coverage of public transport in the area of Bogotá is far superior with a BRT system compared to metro. This alternative is not feasible for Bogotá due to its large capital investment, the relatively bad costbenefit relation and the low coverage. The main reason, as in most cities, is clearly the huge capital layout. The above cited official document clearly favours BRT over metro. The alternative metro was thus rejected by Bogotá. Based on this TransMilenio Phase I in conjunction with a continuation of the existing transport system was implemented. A rail based system is thus clearly not the baseline. ALTERNATIVE 2: OVERALL ORGANIZATIONAL RE-STRUCTURING OF THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM This scenario implies a completely integrated, centrally managed and re-structured transport system which is a comprehensive and complete change of the current public transport system. Currently the transport system is atomized in Bogotá with many individual bus owners competing between each other for passengers. The proposed re-organization would include a centrally managed control of all units, dispatching them upon demand, a management and integration of tariffs, a re-definition of routes and significant structural changes from current operations relying on independent small bus-owners to transit operators embedded in a centrally controlled operation centre of fleet. The barrier to implementing such a system is clearly of organizational and management nature with the considerable risk of non-functioning and the resistance to change of the existing transport sector. To manage such a change the entity in charge of transport management needs to be very strong and the involved parties i.e. the existing transport companies, need to agree upon the change. The Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte (STT) in charge of public transport planning in Bogotá however has significant institutional weaknesses14. Indications of this weakness are also that emitted decrees such as 114-2003 or 115-2003 which planned to change some structural elements of the existing transport fleet were not or only partially implemented15. Also elements of decree 533-2002 which changed the tariff structure to include as an element the occupancy rate thus trying also to reduce the over-supply of buses was challenged successfully in court16 by the transport companies thus returning to a tariff-system legally defined in 1998. No city in Latin America with a comparable transport system to Bogotá has to the moment implemented successfully a comprehensive urban transport system integrating formal and informal individual bus owners17.

13

República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Documento Conpes 3093, Bogotá 15.11.2000

14

See e.g. analysis made in Jorge Acevedo, Transporte urbano en Bogotá: bases para una política integral, Foro Económico, Regional y Urbano, No. 3, 1996; Ardila Arturo, Tránsito y transporte en la Bogotá que queremos, revista Foro, Separata Especial, 9/1998; JICA, Estudio del Plan Maestro del Transporte Urbano de Santa fe de Bogotá en la República de Colombia, informe final, IDU, 1996

15

See Arturo Ardila, La olla de presión del transporte público en Bogotá, revista de ingeniería universidad de los andes, 5.2005

16

Tribunal Administrativo de Cundinamarca, sección primera, subsección A, expediente No. 25000-23-24-0002003-00224-01, Bogotá, 26.5.2005

17

Plans for such an integration haven been realized e.g. by Santiago de Chile but have not yet been implemented.

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The chance of success in re-organizing atomized public transport sectors such as the one in Bogotá was and is considered as very small as resistance to change from the existing often partially informal transport sector is high, the involved regulatory authorities are weak and free-riders (the informal sector) would undermine the approach of the whole system. The barriers to implementing this alternative are thus of organizational nature, lack of know-how on how to implement the change, high resistance to change from current bus operators, especially informal ones and a complete lack of successful cases in comparable surroundings. For Bogotá this alternative was thus considered as non-feasible basically due to the organizational challenge involved as well as the low success potential and the high risk of such an alternative. It is thus considered as a non-feasible alternative for the future. The re-organization alternative is thus clearly not the baseline. ALTERNATIVE 3: CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT TRANSPORT SYSTEM (INCLUDES TRANSMILENIO PHASE I) A continuation of the current transport system complies with all applicable legal and regulatory requirements. The implementation of Phases II to IV of TransMilenio is not conditioned by Colombian, regional or local law. Phase II is not a compulsory implementation following Phase I as financial means have to be secured independently for each phase on part of the District. A continuation of the current system has various advantages compared to all other options: ¾ No political resistance from the existing transport sector as well as from other political pressure groups favouring public investment in other sectors such as education, health or security or opposing increased public spending. ¾ No large-scale public investment requiring additional income/tax sources. ¾ Lowest risk of all options. ¾ The political benefit of a new transport system has already been reaped with phase I of TransMilenio which is part of this BAU scenario. Expanding the system attracts no additional political gains while financial resources cannot be used for other more attractive and novel options outside the transport sector. A continuation of the current transport system is the most attractive alternative. Public authorities must not engage in large investments, nor do they embark upon risky structural changes to transport nor do they have to confront resistance to change from the transport sector. The continuation of the current situation is thus clearly a realistic and attractive alternative. ALTERNATIVE 4: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROJECT WITHOUT CDM The alternative of the project without CDM is not considered as viable and thus not BAU due basically to three important barriers which have been identified for the second and further phases of TransMilenio: ¾ Investment barrier: Costs per kilometre are significantly higher than anticipated and significantly higher than in Phase I. The District of Bogotá must thus bear much higher investments for phase II and following than originally anticipated. As in any investment project this results in a barrier to continue investing if no alternative income sources can be identified. While the first Phase of TransMilenio was implemented successfully (operations started end of December 2000) severe financial difficulties have resulted in a risk of non-continuation. Financial consolidation and the goahead for phase II were only achieved after accruing sales of GHG offsets as additional funding sources. ¾ Political barrier: The interest of the new administration in investing in new phases is limited as other public investment projects are higher on the current political agenda. ¾ Resistance of the existing transport sector. This resistance has grown relative to phase I as formerly only a limited part of the city was affected while phases II to V encompass a large part of the city. Bus owners thus fear to loose income and especially the informal transport sector for many reasons has resistance to change to a formal transport system. This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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The barriers presented here are discussed in major detail in section B.3. That section demonstrates that in absence of the CDM the project would not happen. The project is thus not BAU and not the baseline. The most probable alternative in the future in absence of the project is thus a continuation of the current road-based transport system. This is thus the baseline for this project. KEY STEPS TO DETERMINE THE BASELINE The baseline methodology involves two main steps: 1. Determination of emissions per passenger transported per vehicle category. This is calculated exante, including the usage of a fixed technology change factor. The baseline emission factor is adapted to potential changes in trip distance and type of fuel used by passenger cars if the surveys indicate that changes in trip distance or type of fuel used would lead to lower baseline emission factors. 2. Baseline emissions: These are calculated ex-post based on the passengers transported by the project and their modal split. Core baseline parameters used for calculating the baseline emission factors are reviewed through an annual survey, with changes only being applied if the baseline emissions factors would be lower than original factor. Passengers transported by the project are recorded by TransMilenio. Details of the approach as well as all calculations can be found in section E.

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Graph B.2. Determination of Baseline Emissions 1. Determine Vehicle Categories

2. Emissions per Kilometer

3. Emissions per Passenger

4. Technology Improvement Factor

5. Change of Baseline Parameters during Project

6. Policy Effects

6. Baseline Emissions

Key data, variables and parameters are listed in Annex 3. B.3. Description of how the anthropogenic emissions of GHG by sources are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity: The additionality of the project is determined using the “Tool for the demonstration and assessment of additionality (version 2)” of 28.11.2005. STEP 0. PRELIMINARY SCREENING BASED ON THE STARTING DATE OF THE PROJECT ACTIVITY The project participants wish to have the crediting period starting prior to the registration of their project activity. 1. To be applicable for an early starting date the project must provide evidence that the starting date is between 1.1.2000 and 18.11.2004 (the date of the registration of a first CDM project activity): Construction for the first lane of Phase II commenced March 2002 (lane “Americas”). The first lane was operational December 2003 (source: IDU). Both dates are between 1.1.2000 and 18.11.2004. 2. The extended deadline for early starting date decided upon at COP/MOP 1 applies to the proposed project as it submitted a new baseline methodology (NM0105 as well as the revised methodology NM0105rev.) before December 31st 2005. This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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3. The project must provide evidence that the incentive from the CDM was seriously considered in the decision to proceed with the project activity: The District of Bogotá signed a contract with the CAF in 2001 including the TransMilenio CDM project18. Prior to this the potentials of CDM were discussed and considered as viable, thus leading to the contract signature with the CAF to develop the project as a CDM one. Additional funds from CDM were considered a critical element to continue with Phase II of TransMilenio. The project thus complies with all conditions to apply for a crediting period starting prior to the registration of the project activity. The starting date of the crediting period is 1.1.2006. STEP 1. IDENTIFICATION OF ALTERNATIVES TO THE PROJECT ACTIVITY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT LAWS AND REGULATIONS Potential alternatives are such that achieve in comparable circumstances similar mobility targets of involved actors. Sub-step 1a: Define alternatives to the project activity The potential alternatives are: 1. Establishment of a rail-based public transport system 2. Complete operational restructuring of the public transport system 3. Continuation of the current system including improvements based on national, regional or local policies. The continuation of the current system includes the continuation of TransMilenio phase I. 4. Implementing the project (TransMilenio phase II and following) without CDM Alternative 1 of a rail-based public transport system is not a viable alternative and thus not further considered due to following facts19: ¾ The estimated infrastructure investment for the metro was estimated in more than double than for the BRT system (4,007 million USD versus 1,970 million USD). The metro system would however have a coverage of only 8% of the city (10% of trips) while the BRT system would have a coverage of 85% (80% of trips)20. Per trip coverage metro would thus be around 16 times more expensive than the BRT system. ¾ The investment cost per kilometre was estimated at 107 million USD for metro versus 5 million USD for the BRT system. The cost per kilometre is thus more than 20-times higher for metro than for the BRT alternative. ¾ The cost benefit calculation including social and environmental benefits calculated at shadow prices were double for the BRT versus the metro. Based on these calculations the government of Colombia concluded that metro was financially non-viable and that a BRT system is far more attractive than metro. Alternative 2 of a complete restructuring of the public transport system implies a completely integrated, centrally managed and re-structured transport system which is a comprehensive and complete change of the current public transport system. Currently the transport system is atomized in Bogotá with many individual bus owners competing between each other for passengers. The proposed re-organization would include a centrally managed control of all units, dispatching them upon demand, a management and integration of tariffs, a re-definition of routes and significant structural changes from current operations relying on independent small bus-owners to transit operators embedded in a centrally controlled operation centre of fleet. The barrier to implementing such a system is clearly of organizational and management 18

See CO_EX dated 14.11.2001 Annex C

19

República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Documento Conpes 3093, Bogotá 15.11.2000

20

The first figure corresponds to spatial coverage, the 2nd to trip coverage. Former is different to latter due to different concentration of population per square meter depending on location.

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nature with the considerable risk of non-functioning and the resistance to change of the existing transport sector. To manage such a change the entity in charge of transport management needs to be very strong and the involved parties i.e. the existing transport companies, need to agree upon the change. The Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte (STT) in charge of public transport planning in Bogotá however has significant institutional weaknesses21. Indications of this weakness are also that emitted decrees such as 1142003 or 115-2003 which planned to change some structural elements of the existing transport fleet were not or only partially implemented22. Also elements of decree 533-2002 which changed the tariff structure to include as an element the occupancy rate thus trying also to reduce the over-supply of buses was challenged successfully in court23 by the transport companies thus returning to a tariff-system legally defined in 1998. No city in Latin America with a comparable transport system to Bogotá has to the moment implemented successfully a comprehensive urban transport system integrating formal and informal individual bus owners24. The chance of success in re-organizing atomized public transport sectors such as the one in Bogotá was and is considered as very small as resistance to change from the existing often partially informal transport sector is high, the involved regulatory authorities are weak and free-riders (the informal sector) would undermine the approach of the whole system. The barriers to implementing this alternative are thus of organizational nature, lack of know-how on how to implement the change, high resistance to change from current bus operators, especially informal ones and a complete lack of successful cases in comparable surroundings. For Bogotá this alternative was thus considered as non-feasible basically due to the organizational challenge involved as well as the low success potential and the high risk of such an alternative. The re-organization alternative is thus clearly not the baseline. The only viable potential alternatives analyzed thus in the further steps are a continuation of the current public transport system or the project without CDM. Sub-step 1b. Enforcement of applicable laws and regulations All alternatives proposed comply with all applicable legal and regulatory requirements. Continuation of the current transport mode complies with legal requirements. The implementation of Phases II to IV of TransMilenio is not conditioned by Colombian, regional or local law. Phase II is not a compulsory implementation following Phase I as financial means have to be secured independently for each phase on part of the District. The potential alternatives 1 and 2 have been analyzed and have been excluded as being non-viable in chapter B.2. (identification of the baseline). They would however also comply with legal and regulatory requirements. STEP 2: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS The investment analysis is not realized. Infrastructure in the case of TransMilenio is 100% public financed and has no direct returns. The public financed component is not repaid. Tariffs in TransMilenio cover only operational costs excluding infrastructure costs. The direct financial return of the project is thus 0 (no direct income).

21

See e.g. analysis made in Jorge Acevedo, Transporte urbano en Bogotá: bases para una política integral, Foro Económico, Regional y Urbano, No. 3, 1996; Ardila Arturo, Tránsito y transporte en la Bogotá que queremos, revista Foro, Separata Especial, 9/1998; JICA, Estudio del Plan Maestro del Transporte Urbano de Santa fe de Bogotá en la República de Colombia, informe final, IDU, 1996

22

See Arturo Ardila, La olla de presión del transporte público en Bogotá, revista de ingeniería universidad de los andes, 5.2005

23

Tribunal Administrativo de Cundinamarca, sección primera, subsección A, expediente No. 25000-23-24-0002003-00224-01, Bogotá, 26.5.2005

24

Plans for such an integration haven been realized e.g. by Santiago de Chile but have not yet been implemented.

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STEP 3: BARRIER ANALYSIS Sub-step 3a. Identify barriers that would prevent the implementation of type of the proposed project activity Two important barriers exist for the implementation of the second and further phases of TransMilenio: ¾ Investment barrier: Costs per kilometre are significantly higher than anticipated and significantly higher than in Phase I. The District of Bogotá must bear much higher investments for phase II and following than originally anticipated. The District of Bogotá is forced to identify alternative finance sources to continue with phase II as resources are limited from the surtax on gasoline established for this purpose. The main barrier is thus the much higher than anticipated investment which limits the ability and reduces the willingness of the administration to further invest in TransMilenio. ¾ Resistance of the existing transport sector. This resistance has grown relative to phase I as formerly only a limited part of the city was affected while phases II to V encompass a large part of the city. Bus owners thus fear to loose income and especially the informal transport sector has resistance to change to a formal transport system for a variety of reasons. Investment Barrier The District does not receive any income from the investment in infrastructure of TransMilenio. No direct returns on capital are received. The investment in TransMilenio thus competes in a political agenda with a wide array of other investment opportunities, which also have economic, social and environmental benefits including inter alia investment in education and schooling, investment in public health or a reduction of public debt and/or public spending with the possibility to reduce taxes. Without significant public investment the private sector would not be willing to invest in new transport schemes due to lack of profitability and a too high risk. The most important barrier is the financial or investment barrier which is detailed in continuation. The financial barrier is basically for the District of Bogotá which needs to cover 36% of the infrastructure costs. The resources from the national government cover 64% of total investment costs and are assured through a national decree25. The District which is the project owner must assure the remaining 36%. The barrier which the District confronts for phase II and following of TransMilenio is the following: • Stagnating or reduced income from the fuel surcharge as well as other sources to finance TransMilenio phase II • Sharply increased investment cost for phase II. The investment cost for phase II is far higher than anticipated The combination of an eroding income base with increased costs is a lack of resources to invest further in TransMilenio. The significant deficit is a main barrier for implementing phase II. The District is thus dependent on alternative income sources to cover at least a portion of this deficit and thus be able to go ahead with the project. Income Sources Phase II The District relies on 50% of a fuel surcharge levied specially for this purpose to finance its share of the total public investment. The surtax on fuel consumption is levied at the pump on the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel in the district. In 1996 the rate was 13% and by 1998 it went to 20%. Originally 25

The share 36% District and 64% National Government is based on an agreement between the District and the National government of financial obligations towards TransMilenio 2004 to 2011 showing a total sum of 1,837,383 million Pesos (pesos of 2003) with 1,183,678 million (64%) from the national government and 653,705 million (36%) from the District. This corresponds basically to the distribution established originally for all phases in the official planning document Conpes 3093 where a share of the National Government of 66% was projected (República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Conpes 3093, 15.11.2000, Table 3)

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each municipality could set its rate. After many drivers in Bogotá began to fuel in adjacent municipalities with significantly lower rates, Congress stepped in and established rates that can vary only between 18% and 20%26. Revenues from the fuel surtax are thus limited and cannot be increased significantly as Bogotá is already at the maximum rate27. An important additional funding source of the capital District for phase I of TransMilenio were also significant non-recurrent capital receipts. The largest single influx was thereby the capital reduction of the city Power Company, EEB, which facilitated large investments in TransMilenio phase I in 1999 and 200028. This source of revenue has however dried up and is not available anymore for phase II. Sources of revenue which are destined for investment in TransMilenio are thus limited and potentially lower for phase II and following than for phase I. Investment Cost Phase II The investment cost of phase I was much higher than anticipated. Table B.3.1. compares the projected investment with the actual cost of Phase I in USD of 2000. Table B.3.1. Comparison Projected and Actual Investment Phase I TransMilenio (million USD 2000) Trunk road Length (km) Projected cost Actual cost Surplus cost Calle 80 10 42.6 97.8 55.2 Caracas 21 69.0 111.4 42.4 Autopista Norte 10 42.3 72.8 30.5 Total average cost per kilometer 3.75 6.68 2.93 Sources: • Projected cost and lenght: República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Conpes 3093 • Actual cost: Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano; USD 2003 are converted to USD 2000 using OECD deflator; based on real kilometres built • Total cost per km is adjusted for actual cost to the actual km constructed: 42.2 km (planned: 41.0 km)

The cost overrun per kilometre is with nearly 80% very significant. Based on these higher costs new projections of real construction costs for phase II were realized. The major reasons for the cost increase experienced include: • Significant changes in the construction method of trunk routes • Design and construction changes in stations and related components, e.g., traffic signalling or bike deposit stations • A higher investment in alternative routes during the construction phase • Significantly higher than expected costs for land acquisition due to higher than expected prices and a larger quantity of land being bought as trunk routes were only allowed to a limited degree to replace existing road space • Intersections between trunk routes not foreseen originally • An increase in the price of raw material, basically steel used for stations • Increased environmental requirements • Trunk routes constructed in Phase II include 5-year maintenance contracts not included formerly29 Based on the experience of Phase I the construction designs of trunk routes, stations and complimentary infrastructure changed significantly leading to increased costs. The significant increase of cost is thus due to expanded and unforeseen requirements concerning construction of trunk routes and related elements as well as to the lack of experience with this type of construction. With the experience of phase I costs of Phase II and subsequent were thus adjusted based on much more reliable data and experience. Table 26

See World Bank, report 24941-CO, project appraisal document on a proposed loan in the amount of USD 100 million to the capital district of Bogotá, page 105, 14.2.2003; Since the decision on Phase II the maximum level has been increased to 25%. This improves the financial income situation for Phase III (construction start 2007)

27

The fuel surtax is dependent on the fuel usage in the city and thus also dependent on macroeconomic parameters.

28

Phase I was constructed between 1998 and 2000 entering into operations in the year 2000 (source: IDU)

29

See Plan Marco Sistema TransMilenio, IDU and TransMilenio, 2003

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B.3.2. compares the originally planned with the new projected cost of phase II. Table B.3.2. compares directly the cost per kilometre as distances were also changed between the two planning stages. Table B.3.2. Comparison of Original and New Projected Cost Phase II (million USD 2000) Trunk road Originally projected cost New projected cost per Surplus cost per km per km km Américas 5.7 10.1 4.4 NQS 3.8 14.1 10.3 Suba 3.9 13.0 9.1 Average 4.31 12.61 8.3 Sources: • Originally projected cost: República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Conpes 3093 • Actual cost: Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano; USD 2003 are converted to USD 2000 using OECD deflator; based on new projected kilometres; excluding finance cost as this was not included in the original planning • Note: the average is based on the total cost divided by the total number of kilometres

Table B.3.3. compares the originally projected cost based on the distances definitely included in the new planning for phase II with the new projected cost for phase II Table B.3.3. Comparison of Original and New Projected Total Cost Phase II (million USD 2000) Originally projected cost Phase II New projected cost Phase II Cost surplus Phase II 186 532 346 Sources: • Originally projected cost: República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Conpes 3093; adapted to the new projected trunk routes and distances for phase II (Américas, NQS and Suba) • Actual cost: Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano; USD 2003 are converted to USD 2000 using OECD deflator; excluding finance cost as this was not included in the original planning

Deficit Phase II Table B.3.4. shows the additional cost or deficit for the District based on a fixed distribution of 36% of costs borne by the District. Table B.3.4. Additional Non-Projected Costs Phase II for the District of Bogotá (million USD of 2000) Total additional cost Cost Participation District Additional cost district 346 36% 125

Bogotá District thus has a significant financial deficit for TransMilenio Phase II due to net additional and non-projected costs of 125 Million USD for phase II. These additional funds are not available and new income sources are politically difficult to tap or legal restrictions exist. The continuation and financial viability of the project is thus questionable if no additional revenue sources can be tapped. In the face of these financial problems the new phases were not implemented as originally planned and additional revenue sources were sought30. TransMilenio phase II and following were thus stopped till new and additional financial resources could be secured. 2002 an agreement could be signed with the CAF in which TransMilenio opts for the CDM as an additional finance source. The additional income through the sale of GHG emission reductions in the global market alleviates the financial deficit of Phase II in a significant manner and thus allows the District to go ahead with this Phase. The interest of the administration in investing in new phases is also limited as other public investment projects, especially social ones are prioritized by the new administration. Expanding an existing system is difficult to sell and not that attractive from a media point of view as embarking on new projects. The political barrier increased additionally as higher than projected investment costs mean that scarce funds would have to be quit from other departments provoking resistance from these sectors.

30

Originally implementation of phase II should have started 2001

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Resistance from the Existing Transport Sector Phase I of TransMilenio had a coverage of passenger demand of around 10% (see map 1) i.e. 10% of all trips are realized through TransMilenio while the remaining 90% of trips are realized through the conventional transport system31. Map 1: Coverage of TransMilenio in Phase I

Source: TransMilenio

Coverage of TransMilenio phase II to IV is in contrast more than 70% (see map 2)32. Phase II alone would already reach a coverage of nearly 40%. Alone in Phase II 55 of 67 transport companies operating in Bogotá would be affected33. With the project the remaining coverage of the existing transport sector would thus shrink to only 30%, a very limited market.

31

Alcaldia Mayor de Bogotá, Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte; Asistencia Técnica a la Secretaría de Tránsito y de Transporte de Bogotá para la Reorganización del Sistema de Transporte Público Colectivo, contrato realizado por Logitrans por encargo del PNUD, 2003, page 86

32

Alcaldia Mayor de Bogotá, Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte; Asistencia Técnica a la Secretaría de Tránsito y de Transporte de Bogotá para la Reorganización del Sistema de Transporte Público Colectivo, contrato realizado por Logitrans por encargo del PNUD, 2003, page 86

33

Alcaldia Mayor de Bogotá, Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte; Asistencia Técnica a la Secretaría de Tránsito y de Transporte de Bogotá para la Reorganización del Sistema de Transporte Público Colectivo, contrato realizado por Logitrans por encargo del PNUD, 2003, page 88

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Map 2: Expected Coverage of TransMilenio in 2016

Source: TransMilenio

Phase I was thus not considered a serious competition by the existing transport sector basically due to: • Limited coverage of 10% • Limited absolute competition as the city at the same time grows and thus in absolute numbers the influence of TransMilenio phase I is even less than 10%. • The traditional transport system expected that the new system would not or only partially work. An indicator of this perception is that no public transport company participated as operators of TransMilenio phase I. Companies who took the risk and participated as operators of TransMilenio phase I had previously not been active in urban public transport in Bogotá. With phase II and following the traditional transport sector however confronted a serious problem. If they would not integrate into TransMilenio they would loose their economic base. The integration was however for a certain amount of companies not feasible due to organizational, legal or economic conditions and for other companies, especially informal companies with a track record of evading taxes, financially not attractive. The traditional transport sector thus had significantly higher resistance against an expansion of TransMilenio compared to TransMilenio Phase I. The barrier analysis clearly shows that the additional and non-anticipated investment cost together with an increasing resistance to an expansion of TransMilenio from existing transport companies makes the alternative of implementing the project without CDM non-feasible. The project is thus not the baseline. Sub-step 3 b. Show that the identified barriers would not prevent the implementation of at least one of the alternatives (except the proposed project activity) The alternative of a rail-based system has even higher financial barriers than the proposed project. For a detailed discussion of its barriers see sub-step 1.A. This alternative is clearly non-feasible and the identified barriers would prevent its implementation. This alternative is thus eliminated from consideration. The alternative of a complete re-organization faces primarily organizational barriers and resistance of the existing transport sector to change. For a detailed discussion of this alternative see sub-step 1.A. The identified barriers would thus also prevent the implementation of this alternative. This alternative is thus eliminated from consideration.

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The third alternative identified is a continuation of the current transport system. A continuation of the current system faces no investment barrier. The existing public transport companies do not offer any resistance to a continuation of the current system – they favour this alternative as they can continue their current business practice. A continuation of the current public transport system of Bogotá is thus a viable alternative. The identified barriers would not prevent the continuation of the current transport system. STEP 4. COMMON PRACTICE ANALYSIS Sub-step 4a. Analyze other activities similar to the proposed project activity There is no precise definition of what constitutes a BRT system. Features of complete BRT systems such as TransMilenio include exclusive right-of-way lanes, rapid boarding and alighting, free transfers between lines, pre-board fare collection and fare verification, enclosed stations, clear route maps, real-time information displays, automatic vehicle location technology to manage vehicle movements, modal integration at stations, effective reform of the existing institutional structures for public transit, clean vehicle technologies and excellence in marketing and customer service34. In Latin America comparable BRT projects have only been realized in few cities including basically35: ¾ Curitiba (1974), and partially Sao Paulo (1975), Goiania (1976) and Porto Alegre (1977) in Brazil ¾ Quito, Ecuador in 1996 ¾ Bogotá, Colombia, phase I of TransMilenio Curitiba The Curitiba project is more than 3 decades old. Although widely promoted it was not replicated and can thus not be considered as BAU. The other 3 cities mentioned in Brazil have only implemented the BRT system partially. Brazil also has a GNI which is nearly 80% higher than that of Colombia, thus stressing the concept of “comparable access to finance”36. Quito Quito has a similar project called “Trolebus” implemented a decade ago. However this project had a foreign subsidy worth over 70% of the total investment financed through concessional credits by the Government of Spain with an ODA participation37. “The system was constructed in two phases thanks to receiving governmental finance from Spain...The finance was concessionary and beneficial for the country (50% ODA and 50% in OECD conditions)38” Bogotá In Bogotá the first phase of TransMilenio was financed by the national government together with the Bogotá district. However since implementation of this first phase various important factors have changed making the investment barrier significantly higher. The cost increase is significant compared to the cost originally planned. This was shown in the former chapter. Overall Assessment 34

GTZ, Bus Rapid Transit, version 2.0, 2005

35

GTZ, Bus Rapid Transit, version. 2.0, 2005; other sources do not include Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre (Darío Hidalgo, Comparación de Alternativas de Transporte Público Masivo – Una Aproximación Conceptual, in Revista de Ingeniería 21, 5-2005)

36

GNI per capita of Brazil in the year 2000 : 3'650 USD ; in Colombia : 2'050 ; source : World Bank economic indicators

37

Source: http://www.trolebus.gov.ec/secciones/historia.html

38

Literal translation from the official website of Trolebus, Quito: http://www.trolebus.gov.ec/secciones/historia.htmln

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Considering the large number of cities in Latin America 3-639 examples of BRTs is very little. Of these the only really comparable case is TransMilenio Phase I in Bogotá as Brazil has nearly the double of GDP per capita compared to Colombia and is thus in a different financial situation and the Quito system was largely financed through ODA and a concessional credit. The continuation of TransMilenio is thus surely not common practice. The fact that TransMilenio is widely used as example40 and visited by many cities worldwide also shows the innovative nature of the project. Various cities in South America as well as other regions are now in the process of planning BRT projects comparable to the TransMilenio one. Similar projects under planning but not yet operational as of 1.1.2006 are, e.g., in Colombia in Cali, Cartagena, Pereira or Barranquilla or BRT projects are under planning in Lima (Perú), Guayaquil (Ecuador), Insurgentes in Mexico City (Mexico) or Santiago de Chile (Chile). Noteworthy is that all these projects are finding severe financial constraints and all are considering CDM finance as an important aspect. All above mentioned cities are under negotiation or have closed contracts for carbon finance41. This indicates clearly that the investment barrier is a major issue in all these projects and that CDM can play an important role in surpassing this barrier thus promoting widely BRT projects with numerous positive sustainability implications beyond climate change. The survey of similar project activities in other countries shows clearly that BRT projects are singular and not common practice. Although BRT projects have been planned in various countries after the success of Curitiba these plans have not resulted in concrete implementations with exception of Quito which had access to ODA sources and of the first phase of TransMilenio in Bogotá. Since Phase I of TransMilenio however the financial picture changed significantly thus creating barriers for the implementation of Phase II and following. Other similar projects underway include CDM finance as an important source of additional finance. It can thus be concluded that similar activities without ODA or CDM finance are not common practice and are only carried out on a very exceptional base. Sub-step 4b. Discuss any similar options that are occurring As mentioned in the former subchapter the similar projects occurring or under planning without CDM finance are singular and not common practice. Even these singular cases have significant differences compared to the project proposed including: ¾ Access to ODA finance (case of Quito) ¾ Significantly lower investment barriers (in the case of Bogotá TransMilenio phase I) than the current barrier. See arguments and differences listed in Step 3a. The steps realized above clearly show that implementing the project is not the baseline and is not a viable alternative under BAU. STEP 5. IMPACT OF CDM REGISTRATION The impact of a CDM registration is on all identified barriers: ¾ The financial barrier is alleviated through the financial transfers resulting from the sale of CERs.

39

3 considering Quito, Bogotá and Curitiba; 6 including the other 3 Brazilian cities

40

E.g. in GTZ, Bus Rapid Transit, version 2.0, 2005 or in IEA, Bus Systems for the Future, 2002

41

See Guayaquil: http://www.cordelim.net/cordelim.php?c=456 Colombian projects: http://www.cecodes.org.co/cambio_climatico/ocmcc.htm#7 (with other cities negotiations for CDM are being realized basically on behalf of CAF and the World Bank), Insurgentes see PPD presented with the proposed NM0158; Santiago de Chile: PDD Transsantiago published on the website of DNV: http://www.dnv.com/certification/climatechange/Projects/ProjectList.asp?whichpage=33&pagesize=10&Country= &DontCreate=True ; The BRT project in Lima has prepared the PIN financed through the World Bank; see National Strategy Study for the CDM Peru, 2003 This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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¾ The political risk barrier which was identified as part of the financial barrier is alleviated through the signature of an international contract to sell CERs. ¾ The resistance of existing transport companies can be alleviated partially through offering alternative employment opportunities. The financial resources of a sale of CERs can assist in this task. Impact of CDM Registration on the Investment Barrier As important barrier the additional investment cost was identified. The major impact of the approval and registration of the project as a CDM activity is an alleviation of this financial barrier. TransMilenio has for this purpose realized an agreement with CAF. CAF covers through this agreement all upfront and transaction costs. The income obtained through the sale of CERs depends basically on the price at which the reductions can be sold, the status of the project and the delivery schedule and quantities. The level of the price depends also on many international market factors including the level of GHG emissions of Annex I countries under BAU, the sales strategy of Russia considering its large amount of hot air and the extent to which Annex I countries will rely on domestic emission reductions versus trading42. At the time of negotiation of the CDM contract in early 2001 the price expectation used by the project was based upon the recently completed and thus “state-of-the-art” “National Strategy Study for the Implementation of the CDM in Colombia” (NSS program of the World Bank, 8/2000)43. Prices expected with entry into force of Kioto were at this time between 7 and 44 USD/tCO244. The range used for estimates in the study were 19 USD per ton in the upper range, 10 USD as average price and 3 USD for the weak price scenario. Price scenarios since then have tended to shift upwards. A recent World Bank study of potential CER prices estimated the average price at 11 USD/tCO2 +/- 50% with a low price scenario of 5 and a high price scenario of 15 USD.45 Pointcarbon reports February 2006 prices between 6 and 24 USD per tCO246. The price range estimated in the NSS is thus more on the low side compared to current price expectations. Nevertheless the price range values published in NSS are used to demonstrate the CDM impact as they represent the information available to the project at the time of taking a decision to go forward with the project or not. Table B.3.5.: Estimate of Income through the Sale of CERs (low, medium, high price scenario)47 USD 3/tCO2eq USD 10/tCO2eq USD 19/tCO2eq 1,726,000 1,726,000 1,726,000 Projected Total CERs first crediting period 5,200,000 17,300,000 32,800,000 Expected Income in USD first crediting period Source: Data generated by the author

The expected additional income from the sale of CERs is between 5 and 33 million USD for the first crediting period only. Assuming a renewal of crediting periods plus the expected system expansion expected total income with constant USD is on average (with a price of 10 USD/tCO2eq) around 80 million

42

See e.g. CERT (Carbon Emission Reduction Trade) metamodel developed for the World Bank by grütter consulting

43

For download see: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTCC/0,,contentMDK:20484413~p agePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:407864,00.html 44

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45

Estimating the Market Potential for the CDM: Review of Models and Lessons Learned, PCF plus, June 2004

46

Pointcarbon, CDM and JI Monitor 7.2.2006; € values converted to USD based on the Interbank exchange rate 1.2.2006

47

Rounded reduction tons; Prices based on the NSS Colombia, 2000

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USD reaching up to 170 million USD48. Bogotá District has a financial gap of 125 MUSD. In relation to this gap the projected income from the sale of CERs is very significant and can cover a substantial part of the gap or deficit. The financial barrier can thus be alleviated in a significant manner through the sale of CERs. Impact of the CDM Registration on Political Resistance The political resistance to implementing Phase II and following can be reduced considerably due to following reasons: • The additional CDM finance available can contribute significantly to alleviate the projected deficit (see above) and resolves to a large part the politically difficult financial hurdle for TransMilenio phase II and following. Additional income sources are thus secured. • The income from the sale of CERs will only occur in case of implementing and operating the new phases such as planned. This leads to a significant pressure also on newly entering public administrations to continue the efforts as otherwise resources would be lost. The contract for sales of CERs thus reduces the discontinuation risk of future phases of TransMilenio. • The national and international prestige of TransMilenio is considerably increased. The GHG offsets are internationally recognized and externally verified. This increases not only the credibility of the project but also highlights the impact of the policies followed and thus improves the prestige and the image of involved institutions. This international recognition is highly appreciated, especially as Bogotá tries to improve the image of its city with TransMilenio. • The GHG reductions are calculated and verified based on an approved methodology by the UNFCCC. Bogotá can thus claim to improve the global as well as the local environment. These claims are sustained through the registration as a CDM project thus increasing the political attractiveness of implementing further phases. Impact of the CDM Registration on Resistance from the Existing Transport Sector The resistance of the existing transport sector can be reduced by using the additional funds available for either re-training persons involved in existing transport entities and/or by trying to incorporate more existing transport enterprises as TransMilenio operators even if this results in marginally higher prices. TransMilenio plans to integrate the existing transport companies in Phase II to a higher degree by giving them certain advantages in the bidding process. The additional costs provoked from this change are feasible also due to the additional expected income from the sale of CERs. B.4. Description of how the definition of the project boundary related to the baseline methodology selected is applied to the project activity: The project boundary includes all anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs under the control of project participants. The project boundary is defined by the passenger trips completed on the BRT project that is part of the public and private road-based passenger transport sector of Bogotá49. The physical delineation is determined by the outreach of TransMilenio phase II-IV. TransMilenio operates trunk routes and feeder routes. Table B.4.1. relates the trunk routes of TransMilenio Phase I to IV. Map B.4.1. gives an overview of the total system as projected in the different phases, while Map B.4.1.2. shows the extensions of the feeder routes organized in sectors of the city. Table B.4.1. Trunk Routes TransMilenio (Phase I-IV) 48

Based on price of 19 USD/tCO2eq Calculations for crediting periods 2 and 3 based on ERs of 500’000 tCO2eq per annum. 49

Freight transport is not included. Air, ship and rail transport is not included.

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Phase Phase I Phase I Phase I Phase II Phase II Phase II Phase III Phase III Phase III Phase IV Phase IV Phase IV Phase IV Total phases I-IV

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Trunk route Calle 80 Caracas Autonorte Americas NQS Suba Calle 26 Carreras 10 and 7 Av. Boyaca Avenida 68 Calle 13 Av. Ciudad de Cali Av. 1 de Mayo

Distance 10.1 km 21.8 km 10.3 km 13.0 km 19.3 km 10.0 km 13.9 km 22.5 km 26.6 km 25.7 km 7.1 km 14.7 km 12.3 km 207.3 km

Completion date 2000 2000 2000 2003 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015

Source: TransMilenio and IDU, 2006

Map B.4.1.1. Complete System as Planned till 2030 (Trunk Routes only)

Source: TransMilenio 2006

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TransMilenio has currently 70 feeder routes with a total distance of 468 kilometers. The city of Bogotá has been divided into 8 “feeder regions”. In the following map the distribution of feeder routes in Bogotá is given. Map B.4.1.2. Feeder Routes in the City of Bogotá Zona Norte (41 buses) Zona Cerros (Phase III, in planning stage) Zona Usme (61 buses) SUBA (66 buses) Zona Calle 80 (80 buses) Zona Calle 26 (phase III, in planning stage)

Zona Sur (80 buses)

Zona Américas (66 buses) Source: TransMilenio 2006 Red Lines: Trunk routes Phase I Blue Lines: Trunk routes Phase II Green Lines: Trunk routes Phase III

Project activity

Baseline

Table B.4.3. Emissions Sources Included in the Project Boundary Source Mobile source emissions of different modes of road transport for passengers which use TransMilenio including buses, passenger cars and taxis TransMilenio emissions (feeder and trunk routes)

Gas

Included?

CO2 CH4 N2O

Yes Yes Yes

CO2 CH4 N2O

Yes Yes Yes

Justification / Explanation Main source

Main source

The most important GHG in mobile sources is clearly CO250. Road transport emits significant amounts of other pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM) and oxides of nitrate (NOx), which cause or contribute to local or regional air pollution problems. The methodology however only includes the direct GHGs listed above. 50

According to IPCCC, 2000, Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Chapter 2: Energy; CO2 is responsible for over 97% of the CO2-equivalent emissions from the transportation sector. This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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Figure B.4. shows the emission sources included or excluded in the project boundary. Figure B.4. Project Boundary

Emission sources not considered

Emissions sources included

Emissions caused by remaining transport system are not included (taxis, cars, conventional public transport)

Upstream emissions included as leakage • Construction emissions caused by the project • Reduced life-span of buses due to scrappage • Well-to-tank emissions of fuels used by project and baseline

Emissions caused by freight, ship, rail and air transport

Direct project and baseline emissions Emissions caused by TransMilenio phase II-IV (project emissions) and emissions caused by passengers transported in the project which in absence of TransMilenio would have used different modes of transport (baseline emissions) Downstream emissions included as leakage Congestion change provoked by project resulting in (inter alia): • Increased vehicle speed • Rebound effect

Other emissions included as leakage Change of baseline factors monitored during project and included as leakage: • Change of load factors of taxis provoked indirectly by project • Change of load factor of remaining conventional buses provoked indirectly by project

B.5. Details of baseline information, including the date of completion of the baseline study and the name of person (s)/entity (ies) determining the baseline: Detailed baseline information is included in Annex 3. The final version of the baseline was completed July 25th 2006. The baseline was determined by: Dr. Jürg M. Grütter, grütter consulting [email protected] www.transport-ghg.com This entity is not listed as project participant in Annex I. SECTION C. Duration of the project activity / Crediting period C.1

Duration of the project activity: C.1.1. Starting date of the project activity:

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The starting date of the CDM project is determined as the starting date of the first construction activities in the first trunk route of the project. Construction for the first lane of Phase II commenced March 2002 (lane “Americas”)51.

C.1.2. Expected operational lifetime of the project activity: BRTs are basically a new transport system without an operational lifetime. The operational life-time of the infrastructure is over 30 years. This is the minimum life-span for the infrastructure of the BRT system. Buses are renewed earlier and changed on a continuous base. The project is however not about renewal of buses but about a new mass urban transport system. If project buses are renewed during the life-span of the new BRT system the potential changes in fuel consumption are taken into account by the project methodology. C.2

Choice of the crediting period and related information: C.2.1. Renewable crediting period C.2.1.1.

Starting date of the first crediting period:

C.2.1.2.

Length of the first crediting period:

01/01/2006

7 years 0 months C.2.2. Fixed crediting period: This part is left intentionally blank C.2.2.1.

Starting date:

C.2.2.2.

Length:

SECTION D. Application of a monitoring methodology and plan D.1.

Name and reference of approved monitoring methodology applied to the project activity:

“Monitoring methodology for Bus Rapid Transit Projects” AM 031 D.2. ity:

Justification of the choice of the methodology and why it is applicable to the project activ-

The methodology is applicable as the project activity reduces emissions through the construction and operation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system for urban road based transport. Table D.2. relates the specific baseline methodology applicability conditions with the proposed project. Table D.2. Applicability Conditions of the Monitoring Methodology 51

The first lane was operational December 2003

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Applicability condition The project reduces significantly emissions per passenger transported. The project has a clear plan how to reduce existing public transport capacities either through scrapping, permit restrictions, economic instruments or other means and replacing them by a BRT system. Data in the required quality is available or can be made available through the project. Local regulations do not constrain the establishment or expansion of a BRT system Fuels used in the baseline and/or project case are gasoline, diesel, LNG, CNG or electricity. Projects in which bio-fuels are used in the baseline or project case are excluded.

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Project situation TransMilenio reduces significantly the emissions pre passenger due to higher load factors, new units, mode switch, improved transport management and a more efficient transport system. The project has a clear replacement program to retire and scrap conventional public transport units with a scrappage rate of on average 7.7 units per new articulated unit introduced. New articulated buses are introduced for the scrapped units. Data is available for the different aspects required to calculate emission reductions TransMilenio complies with all local and national regulations. No regulations constrain the system expansion. The project fuel used is exclusively diesel. No bio-fuels are used. The project case is the new bus system and does not include other modes of transport. Taxis, passenger cars, other buses and other modes of transport except TransMilenio do not form part of the project, are outside the project boundary (see project boundary B4. “Emissions sources not considered”) and are not monitored. Other modes of transport are only relevant for calculating baseline emissions. The baseline fuel used by more than 90%52 of public transport (buses) is diesel. No bio-fuels are used. The baseline fuel used by passenger cars and by taxis is to over 90% unblended gasoline. According to the resolution 180687 dated June 17th 2003 Art. 5 gasoline shall be blended in Bogotá with 10% ethanol as per latest 27th of September of 200553. As per January 1st 2006 this policy has not been implemented. According to EB 22 report Annex 3 “Clarifications on the consideration of national and/or sectoral policies and circumstances in baseline scenarios (version 02)” this is a national regulation that gives comparative advantages to less emissionintensive technologies (type E- policy). According to Art. 7 of the above mentioned document “National and/or sectoral policies or regulations under paragraph 6 (b) (type E- policies) that have been implemented since the adoption by the COP of the CDM M&P (decision 17/CP.7, 11 November 2001) need not be taken into account in developing a baseline scenario (i.e. the baseline scenario could refer to a hypothetical situation without the national and/or sectoral policies or regulations being in place).” The regulation requiring blending with ethanol was issued after Nov 11th 2001 and the implementation deadline was 27th September 2005, well after 11.11.2001. In practice the policy has not been implemented till 1.1.2006 (start of the crediting period of the proposed project). The baseline fuel used by passenger cars and taxis can thus be considered as unblended gasoline i.e. the baseline fuel refers to a hypothetical situation without the national regulation being in place as clarified by the EB 22 Annex 3. Neither the project nor any baseline vehicle categories thus use bio-

52

Fuel types diesel/gasoline/CNG/LPG/LNG per category need only be listed separately if their respective share is larger than 10% according to page 6 of the approved baseline methodology.

53

The law 693 dated 27.9.2001 to which regulation 180687 refers, calls for an oxygenation of fuels without making the usage of ethanol compulsory for this purpose. World-wide oxygenation of gasoline was and is made primarily with MTBE and not through the usage of ethanol. Law 693 also does not specify a certain blending level (the applicability condition of the methodology allows blending of up to 3%). Law 693 can thus be considered a general policy to promote the oxygenation of gasoline fuels without specifying neither the usage of bio-fuels nor a certain blending level. This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

The BRT system as well as the baseline public transport system and other public transport options are road-based. The BRT system replaces a traditional public transport system in a given city partially or fully. The methodology cannot be used for BRT systems in areas where currently no public transport is available. The number of passengers transported by public transport during the crediting period are higher than the pre-project situation.

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fuels. The current public transport system, other public transport options as well as the BRT system are exclusively road-based. The BRT system replaces gradually the existing public transport system without replacing Phase I of TransMilenio which is not part of this project. Public transport is available in areas of operation/influence of TransMilenio in Bogotá. The total passenger numbers transported by public transport are projected to increase based on having a more attractive public transport system. This is also reflected in a modal shift from passenger cars and taxis towards BRT based public transport. The total number of passengers transported by TransMilenio is expected to be 5 million passengers per day in 2015, accounting for 80% of total public transport. Total public transport passengers would thus be 6.25 million passengers per day54. Baseline passengers transported by public transport are 5.1 million passengers per day or nearly ¼ less than with the project55. The number of passengers transported by public transport is thus significantly higher during the project than in the pre-project situation.

All applicability conditions for using the methodology are thus fulfilled.

54

CONPES 3093, 2000, table A6-1

55

Source: STT in Logitrans, 2003

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D.2. 1. Option 1: Monitoring of the emissions in the projec scenario and the baseline scenario D.2.1.1. Data to be collected in order to monitor emissions from the project activity, and how this data will be archived: ID number (Please use numbers to ease crossreferencing to D.3) 1 TCTB,y TCFB,y 2 DDTB,y DDFB,y 3 PTM,T,y

4 PTM,I,y

5 P,PJ,y

56

Data variable

Source of data

Data unit

Measured (m), calculated (c) or estimated (e)

Recording frequency

Proportion of data to be monitored

How will the data be archived? (electronic/ paper)

Comment

Fuel consumption trunk and feeder buses Distance driven trunk and feeder buses Passengers transported by TransMilenio all phases Passengers transported by TransMilenio phase I Passengers transported by project (TransMileni o phase II –

TransMilenio S.A.

L

M

monthly

100%

Electronic

Total fuel consumption data is reported from all operators of TransMilenio

TransMilenio S.A.

Km

M

monthly

100%

Electronic

TransMilenio S.A.

passengers

M

monthly

100%

Electronic

Used for data quality control purposes only. Data monitoring based on GPS. Distance refers to kilometres driven and not kilometres paid56. Records are based upon entry points of passengers in trunk stations (transported passengers).

TransMilenio S.A.

passengers

M

monthly

100%

Electronic

TransMilenio S.A.

passengers

C

monthly

100%

Electronic

Passengers phase I are those that enter into stations along trunk routes of phase I. The separation of passengers phase I and subsequent phases is thus made upon the entry point in the system. Difference between total passengers and passengers phase I

Latter are to a very minor degree lower as only kilometres realized on the specified routes are paid and not those to reach the bus depot station.

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IV)

Alternative A of the monitoring methodology is selected to monitor the project emissions. If for certain months total fuel consumption is not available for specific enterprises then the alternative B of the monitoring methodology will be used taking either the monitored specific fuel consumption of former months (3-month average preferably) or, if not available, the average specific fuel consumption of all monitored enterprises using the same bus category. The data on passengers transported by TransMilenio (total, phase I and phases II-IV) is included as this data is used to separate the fuel consumption of the project (phases II-IV of TransMilenio) from the total fuel consumption recorded (including Phase I). The separation of phase II-IV from phase I is based upon passengers as: • Operators are not assigned to specific phases of TransMilenio and operate all routes • The distance driven per phase is difficult and potentially faulty to disaggregate as trunk and feeder buses are used daily in different routes and thus serve phase I as well as Phase II destinations according to the central dispatch operator. The most appropriate and exact separation of Phase I from the project is thus based upon passengers transported per phase. Passengers are assigned to phases according to the entry point in the system i.e. if a passenger boards a stations of TransMilenio in a route phase I he is counted as a passenger of phase I. The counting is based upon mechanical and/or electronic automated control points at the entry of the enclosed stations. This method to separate passengers of distinct phases is recommended by the baseline methodology (page 14). Data on kilometres driven are monitored for quality assurance purpose (they are used to calculate the fuel efficiency).

D.2.1.2. Description of formulae used to estimate project emissions (for each gas, source, formulae/algorithm, emissions units of CO2 eq.) Formula (1)

PPJ , y = PTM ,T , y − PTM , I , y Where: PPJ,y PTM,T,y PTM,I,y

Passengers transported by the project (TransMilenio phase II-IV) for the year “y” Passengers transported by TransMilenio in total for the year “y” Passengers transported by TransMilenio Phase I for the year “y”

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Formula (2)

TC y = (TCTB , y + TC FB , y )× Where: TCy TCTB,y TCFB,y PPJ,y PTM,T,y

PPJ , y PTM ,T , y

Total consumption of fuel in liters for project for year “y“ Total consumption of fuel of trunk buses in liters for project for year “y“ Total consumption of fuel of feeder buses in liters for project for year “y“ Passengers transported by the project for the year “y” Passengers transported by TransMilenio in total for the year “y”

Formula (3)

PE y = TC y × (EFCO 2, D + EFCH 4, D + EFN 2O , D ) Where: PEy TCy EFCO2,D EFCH4,D EFN2O,D

Project emissions in year “y” Total consumption of fuel (diesel) in liters for project for year “y“ CO2 emission factor per liter diesel CH4 emission factor per liter diesel (based on GWP) N2O emission factor per liter diesel (based on GWP)

Currently all buses are using diesel fuel. In case of other fuels than diesel being used in the future (e.g. CNG) the same formula is applied but using the respective emission factors. Buses used are all large units. The default emissions factors are taken from the baseline methodology based on large diesel buses (Appendix A, table A.1.).

D.2.1.3. Relevant data necessary for determining the baseline of anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs within the project boundary and how This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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such data will be collected and archived : ID number (Please use numbers to ease crossreferencing to table D.3) 6 SECx,i

7 OCi OCi,y

8 TDi TDi,y

9 Nx,i Nx,i,y

Data variable

Source of data

Fuel efficiency (per relevant fuel type “x” and category “i”) Average occupancy rate baseline of vehicle category “i”

International literature and IPCC adapted to local circumstances

Average trip distance baseline for vehicle category “i” Number of vehicles per fuel type “x” and vehicle category “i”

Data unit

Measured (m), calculated (c), estimated (e),

Recording frequency

Proportion of data to be monitored

How will the data be archived? (electronic/ paper)

l/km

M

Before project start

sample

electronic

Used for passenger cars, taxis, buses per relevant fuel type. Based on international data from comparable regions and IPCC values adapted to local circumstances. See Annex 3.

STT and TransMilenio

passengers

M

Sample

electronic

For passenger cars, taxis and buses. Measurements in year 3 and 7 required for leakage calculations.

STT and TransMilenio

Km

M

Before project start and for buses and taxis years 3 and 7 Before project start and annually

Sample

electronic

STT and TransMilenio

Vehicles

M

Before project start and annually for passenger cars used by TMusers

100% and for passenger cars used by TM-users based on sample survey

electronic

For all passenger cars and taxis. During project monitoring of the distance driven is based on an annual survey of passengers using TM. See Annex 3 for details of the survey. Per vehicle category the amount of vehicles per relevant fuel type. Passenger cars, buses and taxis are included. For buses the amount of units per sub-category(small, medium and large buses). Annual recording of fuel type used from passengers using TM which in absence of the project would have used a passenger car. See Annex 3 for details of the survey

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Comment

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

10 DDZS DDZM DDZL DDT 11 PZ

12 PPJ,y

13 PPJ,i

14 Policies

Annual distance driven by all vehicles in category Passengers transported by buses baseline Passengers transported by project Passengers transported by the project who would have used transport mode “i” Policies that affect baseline

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STT

Km

M

Before project start

sample

electronic

For all sub-categories of buses baseline and for taxis (for latter for leakage loadfactor)

STT

Passengers

M

Before project start

100%

electronic

Same coverage data year and time-period as for ID 10

TransMilenio

passengers

M

monthly

100%

electronic

TransMilenio

passengers

M

6x per year

Sample survey

electronic

Based on total passengers transported by TM subtracting passengers of phase I according to the entry points in stations. (see monitoring of project emissions) The project monitors what transport mode passengers would have used in absence of the project. See format of the survey in Annex 3. The passengers transported per category “i” are calculated based on the share of passengers per category “i” determined through the sample survey.

TransMilenio

none

E

Before project start and annually

100%

electronic

Transport policies, which affect the baseline emissions, are identified and their impact on any of the baseline factors is estimated. This is done ex-ante to project start. Annually the project assesses if a new policy has been implemented which changes in a measurable manner a baseline parameter. TransMilenio will assess if policies might have effects on various parameters.

Motorcycles are not included due to their limited quantity in Bogotá (see for details Annex 3). The total amount of fuel consumed per vehicle category is not monitored as the approach used for the baseline calculations is not based on a sectoral approach.

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D.2.1.4. Description of formulae used to estimate baseline emissions (for each gas, source, formulae/algorithm, emissions units of CO2 eq.) Formula (4)

BE y = ∑ (EFP ,i , y × PPJ ,i , y ) i

Where: BEy EFP,i,y PPJ,i,y

Baseline CO2eq emissions for the year “y” Baseline emission factor per passenger transported in vehicle category “i” in year “y” Passengers transported by the project in year “y” that without the project activity would have used category “i”, where “i” includes Z (buses, public transport), T (taxis), or C (passenger cars)57

The passengers transported per category “i” are calculated based on the share of passengers per category “i” determined through the sample survey. The specific fuel consumption (relative approach) is taken for all vehicle categories: Formula (5)

EFP ,i , y = EFP ,i × IRi ,t × CDi , y Where: EFP,i,y EFP,i CDi IRi,t t

Baseline emission factor per passenger transported in vehicle category “i” in year “y” Baseline emission factor per passenger per category “i” before project start Correction factor for changing trip distance in category “i” for the year “y”, where “i” includes C (passenger cars) and T (taxis) Technology improvement factor per vehicle category “i” for the year “t” age in years of fuel consumption data used for calculating the emission factor in year “y”58; t > 0

The adjustment for CDi,y is only made if TDi,y 0 then leakage is included Formula (11)

LEUP , y = LECON , y + LE LSP , y + LEUFP , y Where: LEUP,y LECON,y LELSP,y LEUFP,y

Emissions leakage due to upstream processes in year “y” Emissions leakage due to construction in year “y” Emissions leakage due to reduced life-span of buses in year “y” Emission leakage due to upstream emissions from fuel production in year “y”

Formula (12)

LE CON , y =

CEM × EFCEM × DTCEM + ASP × EFASP × DT ASP Y

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Where: LECON,y CEM ASP EFCEM EFASP DTCEM DTASP Y

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Emissions leakage due to construction in year “y” Cement used per kilometre of trunk lane Asphalt used per kilometre of trunk lane Specific emissions factor for cement Specific emissions factor for asphalt Total kilometres of trunk lanes built in project made of cement (km * number of trunk lanes) Total kilometres of trunk lanes built in project made of asphalt (km * number of trunk lanes) crediting years of project (7)

The default factors for the specific emissions for cement and asphalt are taken from Appendix A, leakage parameters 1 and 2 Formula (13) y

LE LSP , y = Where: LELSP,y BSCRw EFBM BABL BAPJ Y

∑ BSCR w =1

w

× EFBM ×

BABL − BAPJ BABL

Y Emissions leakage due to reduced life-span of buses in year “y” Bus units scrapped by project in the year “w”, where w = 1 to “y” Emissions factor for bus manufacturing Average age BAU when buses are replaced /retired in the baseline scenario Average bus age of scrapped buses under the project activity crediting years of project (7)

For BABL the age taken is the 99 percentile of buses operating in the city i.e. 99% of buses are younger than BABL. EFBM is taken from Appendix A, Leakage parameters, number 3. Medium sized and small buses are “converted” into large buses based on the passenger capacity, taking large buses as such with a capacity of 80 persons60.

60

2 medium = 1 large, 4 small = 1 large

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Formula (14)

LEUFP , y = (PE y − BE y )× UEF Where: LEUFP,y PEy BEy UEF

Emission leakage due to upstream fuel production emissions in year “y” Project emissions in year “y” Baseline emissions in year “y” Upstream emissions multiplier, based on default factor

UEF is taken as default value from Appendix I, number 5, baseline methodology. Formula (15)

⎛ ROC Z , y LE LF , Z , y = EFKM , Z , y × VDZ × N Z , y × ⎜⎜1 − ⎝ ROC Z ,0 Where: LELF,Z,y EFKM, Z,y VDZ NZ,y ROCZ, y ROCZ,0

⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠

Emissions Leakage from change of load factor in buses baseline in year “y” Emissions per kilometer of buses baseline for the year “y” Annual average distance driven per bus baseline before project start Number of buses in the conventional transport system operating in year “y” Average occupancy rate relative to capacity of conventional buses in year “y”, based on the most recent study of occupancy rates Average occupancy rate relative to capacity of buses baseline before start of project

Note: If ROCZ,0 - ROCZ, y ≤ 0.1 then LELF,Z,y = 0

Formula (16): This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

VDZ =

∑ DD ∑N

k =S ,M ,L

k = S ,M , L

where: VDZ DDZ,k NZZ,k

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Z ,k

Z ,k

Annual average distance driven per bus baseline before project start Total distance driven by buses baseline of size “k” Number of buses baseline of size “k”

Formula (17):

⎛ OCT , y LE LF ,T , y = EFKM ,T , y × VDT × N T , y × ⎜⎜1 − ⎝ OCT ,0 Where: LELF,T,y EFKM,T, y VDT NT,y OCT,y OCT,0

⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠

Emissions leakage from change of load factor in taxis baseline in year “y” Emissions per kilometer of taxis baseline for the year “y” Distance driven per taxi on average baseline before project starts Number of taxis operating in year “y” Average occupancy rate of taxi for the year “y” (passengers only) Average occupancy rate of taxi before project start (passengers only)

note: If OCT,0 - OCT,y ≤ 0.1 then LELF,T,y = 0 Only circulating taxis are counted. Taxis without passenger are counted as “0” occupancy rate. Formula (18)

LE CONG , y = LETRIPS , y + LE SP , y where: This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

LECONG,y LETRIPS,y LESP,y

Emissions leakage from reduced congestion in year “y” Emissions leakage from additional and/or longer trips in year “y” Emissions leakage from change in vehicle speed in year “y”

LECONG is calculated ex-ante and fixed for the crediting period. Formula (19)

LETRIPS , y = ITR × ARS y × TDC × EFKM ,C × TRC × D where: LETRIPS,y ITR ARSy TRC TDC EFKM,C D

Emission leakage from additional and/or longer trips in the year “y” Elasticity factor additional and/or longer trips: the factor is set at 0.1 Additional road space available (in percentage) in the year “y” Number of daily trips realized by passenger cars baseline Average trip distance for passenger cars Emission factor per distance of passenger cars before project start number of days buses operate per year (303 days, constant number for all crediting years61)

ITR is taken as default value from Appendix A, leakage parameters, number 5 (baseline methodology). Formula (20)

ARS y = where: ARSy BSCRw NZ

61

⎡ BSCR w ⎤ RSB − RSPy × SRS ⎥ − ⎢ RSB NZ w=1... y ⎣ ⎦

∑

Additional road space available (in percentage) in the year “y” Bus units scrapped by project in the year “w” where “w” = 1 to “y” (cumulative) Number of buses in use in baseline

Based on operational days of TransMilenio which is considered as identical to conventional bus services

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

SRS RSB RSPy

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Share of road space used by public transport in the baseline (in percentage) Total road space available in the baseline Total available road space in the project project in the year “y” (= RSB minus kilometre of lanes that were reduced due to dedicated bus lanes)

Formula (21)

[

]

LE SP , y = TRC × TDC × EFKM ,VPJ ,C , y − EFKM ,VBL ,C × DW where: LESP,y TRC TDC EFKM,VPJ,C,y EFKM,VBL,C DW

Emission leakage from change in vehicle speed in the year “y” Number of daily trips realized by passenger cars baseline Average trip distance driven by passenger cars Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars at project speed in the year “y” Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars at baseline speed number of days per year (taken as constant 365 for all years of the crediting period)

The vehicle speed project is calculated based on the additional road space available for passenger cars. Formula (22)

EFKM ,V ,C = 135.44 − 2.314 × V + 0.0144 × V 2 Where: EFKM,V,C V

Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars traveling at speed V (VBL speed baseline; VPJ speed project) Vehicle speed; calculated both for the project speed (VPJ) and the baseline speed baseline (VBL); VPJ is calculated annually

The Corinair speed emission factor default formula is used. This corresponds to Appendix A, leakage parameters, number 6 (baseline methodology).

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D.2.4. Description of formulae used to estimate emission reductions for the project activity (for each gas, source, formulae/algorithm, emissions units of CO2 eq.) Formula (23)

ER y = BE y − PE y − LE y where: ERy BEy PEy LEy

Emission reductions in year “y” Baseline emissions in year “y” Project emissions in year “y” Emissions leakage in year “y”

D.3. Quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) procedures are being undertaken for data monitored Data (Indicate table and ID number e.g. 3.-1.; 3.2.) Fuel consumption project 2-1-1; 1

Uncertainty level of data (High/Medium/Low)

Explain QA/QC procedures planned for these data, or why such procedures are not necessary.

Low

Data reported is statistically checked with average fuel consumption of other operators. If deviations are above 10% then data is cross-checked, e.g. with fuel receipts. QA software is established for monitoring. The outline is presented as Annex to the PDD while the software is available for review by the validator. Based on GPS. Used for paying operators of system and thus checked well by operators as well as TransMilenio.

Distance driven project 2-1-1; 2 Passengers total TransMilenio 2-1-1; 3 Passengers phase I TransMilenio 2-1-1; 4 Fuel efficiency baseline vehicles 2-1-3; 6 Occupancy rate vehicles baseline 2-1-3; 7 Average trip distance vehicles baseline 2-1-3; 8

Low

Number of vehicles baseline 2-1-3; 9

Low

Low

Low

Medium

Statistics are based on electronic or mechanic measurements of all persons entering stations. Data is cross-checked against financial receipts from the sale of tickets. Statistics are based on electronic or mechanic measurements of all persons entering stations phase I, which are clearly defined based on the trunk routes constructed in Phase I. The monitoring manual lists explicitly all stations phase I. Data of surveys is compared to IPCC.

Medium

The same data source as item 8 is taken to ensure data consistency.

Low

The same data source as item 7 is taken to ensure data consistency. Annual monitoring is based on a survey of passengers using TM. To ensure a conservative approach baseline emission factors are only adjusted if the survey results in lower baseline emissions (i.e. lower trip distances) Based on vehicle registration data (formal transport). Same source for ID 11. Annual monitoring of fuel types used by passenger cars of users of TM which in absence of latter would have used their car is based on a survey of passengers using TM. To ensure a conservative approach baseline emission factors are only adjusted if the survey results in lower baseline emissions (i.e. lower emission factors)

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Distance driven baseline vehicles 2-1-3; 10 Passengers transported buses baseline 2-1-3; 11 Passengers transported by project which would have used different transport modes in absence of the project 2-1-3; 13 Policies 2-1-3; 14

Low

Only formal sector, data control through STT; same data source as ID 11 to ensure consistency of calculations

Low

Only formal sector, data control through STT; same data source as ID 10 to ensure consistency of calculations

Low

The same methodology is used to estimate transport modes over the whole crediting period. Surveys are carried out through a specialized company contracted for this purpose by TransMilenio. The survey was tested during 6 months and the final design of questions is included in the PDD as Annex. The sample size ensures a 95% confidence interval and a 5% error margin using statistical techniques for random surveys.

Medium

Amount cement / asphalt used per kilometre 2-3-1; 15 Length of trunk roads constructed with cement / asphalt 2-3-1; 16 Buses scrapped by project 2-3-1; 17 Average age of retired buses baseline 2-3-1; 18 Average age of scrapped buses 2-3-1; 19 Occupancy rate buses baseline relative to capacity 2-3-1; 20

Low

Policies are assessed. Their impact on the baseline parameters is based on information or studies realized by the policy promoter. If the impact is significant it is assumed that the full modal switch of the implementation year is attributable to the policy and not the project. All policies with a measurable impact on project paramters are included Based on annual reports of constructors supervised by IDU

Low

Based on annual reports of constructors supervised by IDU

Low

Based on scrapping reports made to ensure contract compliance

Low

High quality data of recent comprehensive survey is available.

Low

Occupancy rate taxis baseline 2-3-1; 21

Medium

Based on scrapping reports made to ensure contract compliance; if scrapping reports are incomplete then it is assumed that the oldest buses are scrapped first The same methodology is used to measure the occupancy rate as in ID 7 thus ensuring data consistency. For QA a precise and transparent data collection protocol is thus established detailing methodology and operational issues (including frequency, location, time, duration of measurement). The data is only used if changes >10 percentage points will be registered. The same methodology is used to measure the occupancy rate as in ID 7 thus ensuring data consistency. For QA a precise and transparent data collection protocol is thus established detailing methodology and operational issues (including frequency, location, time, duration of measurement). The data is only used if changes >0.1 points will be registered.

Medium

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Number of conventional buses and taxis still operating 2-3-1; 22 Share road space used by public transport 2-3-1; 23 Road space baseline and project 2-3-1; 24 Trips passenger cars 2-3-1; 25 Vehicle speed baseline and project 2-3-1; 26

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Low

Only formal sector, data control through STT; same data source as ID 10 to ensure consistency of calculations

Medium

Based on calculations made for urban infrastructure and transport scenarios

Low

Based on calculation (RSP) and infrastructure statistics

Low

Based on calculations made for urban infrastructure and transport scenarios; based on sample countings controlled by STT

Medium

Regular survey of travel speeds are realized. The calculations are based on monitored vehicle speeds with different quantities of vehicles.

A sensitivity analysis is made of all data required for baseline, leakage and project emission calculations. See for details Annex 3. D.4 Please describe the operational and management structure that the project operator will implement in order to monitor emission reductions and any leakage effects, generated by the project activity TransMilenio S.A. is ISO 9000 certified and has in place regularly controlled QA procedures. Procedures for record handling, storage, reporting and reviewing are thus already established through the QA procedures defined in the ISO 9000 system. TransMilenio has an environmental department in charge of all environmental affairs. The department has designated a person for managing all data related to the CDM project including responsibility for data collection, quality assurance, reports and data storage. The environmental department is under the direct supervision of the CEO of TransMilenio S.A. Grütter consulting has developed on behalf of CAF and TransMilenio a special software for monitoring of all data required for the project. The software can be reviewed by the validator. Features of the software include: • All parameters required for baseline, leakage and project emissions are included. The same IDs and definitions are used as in the PDD. • The software asks for all the data to be monitored in the frequency specified in the PDD. • The software is in Spanish to facilitate data insertion and to reduce errors. • Data units common in Colombia (e.g. gallons) are used. The software automatically transforms these units in the ones defined in the PDD thus reducing possible calculation or conversion errors. • The software calculates baseline, leakage and emission reductions in tons of CO2eq using the formulaes listed in the PDD and the data monitored. • For various data elements “normal” or average ranges of data were specified. If data inserted falls outside this range the software automatically challenges the data entry thus avoiding typing errors or data errors. The software has been checked during a pre-trail test. The staff in charge of entering the data has been trained on the usage of the software. Additionally during 2 years TransMilenio will receive backstopping This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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through grütter consulting in data monitoring assuring an excellent data quality level. For details see Annex Monitoring Plan. A monitoring manual in Spanish has been developed defining all responsibilities and procedures. For each data parameter the information sources, units, frequency of measurement as well as data quality assurance processes have been described in detail. Also steps are provided how to proceed in case of problematic data. The staff has been trained on usage of the manual. For details see Annex Monitoring Plan. D.5

Name of person/entity determining the monitoring methodology:

This version of the monitoring methodology was completed July 22nd 2006. The monitoring methodology was determined by: Dr. Jürg M. Grütter grütter consulting [email protected] www.transport-ghg.com The entity is not listed as a project participant in Annex I. SECTION E. Estimation of GHG emissions by sources E.1.

Estimate of GHG emissions by sources:

The project emissions are from TransMilenio phases II to IV. This includes two categories of buses: ¾ Trunk route buses: These are articulated buses with a capacity of 160 passengers circulating along designated bus corridors. ¾ Feeder route buses: These are large buses with a capacity of 70-90 passengers. Feeder as well as trunk-route buses are diesel units. For both categories emissions are monitored based on fuel usage reported. For the purpose of projecting the GHG emissions of the project in the PDD following steps were taken. 1. The average fuel efficiency of trunk and feeder buses was determined based on recorded data from January to May 2006. All operators of trunk and feeder buses record monthly total fuel consumed. This data is checked by TransMilenio. Also total distances are recorded based on GPS. 2. The annual number of passengers for the project is recorded. Passengers are recorded per entry station in trunk routes through mechanical or electronic devices. Stations are defined either for phase I, II or following. Passengers are assigned to the project according to phases i.e. all passengers entering trunk stations of phases II, III or IV are counted as project passengers. To estimate future project emissions projection of passengers according to trunk routes were taken. Passengers who only use feeder buses but do not enter any trunk route station are not counted. The amount of passengers registered by the project is thus clearly a conservative figure. 3. Based on historic data from 2001 to 2005 the IPK (Index of passengers per kilometre) of trunk buses in TransMilenio was determined. Based on the amount of passengers expected and the IPK the expected amount of trunk bus kilometres was calculated. 4. Based on data from January to May 2006 the IPK of feeder buses was determined. Based on the amount of passengers expected and the IPK the expected amount of feeder bus kilometres was calculated. 5. Based on the distance driven of all buses and the average distance per unit the number of trunk and feeder buses was calculated.

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Based on these elements the fuel consumption and the corresponding GHG emissions for the project were calculated. For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated project emissions over the crediting period are 1,053,194 tCO2eq. E.2.

Estimated leakage:

Following leakage sources are addressed: 1. Upstream emissions due to o Construction: Emissions due to the construction of dedicated lanes for the BRT project. o Reduced life-span: Additional emissions due to earlier replacement of buses than under business as usual. This is based on emissions due to scrappage policies. o Life-cycle effect of reduced fuel usage Upstream emissions are calculated ex-ante and monitored annually. 2. Change of load factor of the baseline transport system due to the project i.e. the project potentially influences the occupancy rate of the remaining vehicles. This is monitored on a regular base during project execution for baseline buses and for taxis. 3. Reduced congestion in remaining roads provoking higher average vehicle speed and a rebound effect. The annual impact of congestion is calculated ex-ante. The congestion impact is not monitored annually as ex-ante calculations result in additional emission reductions. The impact of reduced emissions due to financing TransMilenio partially through a surtax on fuels (thus resulting in a reduced consumption of fuels and inter alia less GHG emissions) is not considered. This is commensurate with a conservative approach. For the sake of a conservative approach leakage is only considered if the total effect is positive (thus reducing emission reductions). Negative leakage is not accounted for. 1. Upstream Emissions The project has an impact on various upstream emissions including construction (production of construction material), production of buses and upstream emissions associated with fuel production. Not all of these emissions necessarily occur in the project country and some might even occur in Annex B countries. The leakage calculation is made before project start based on conservative default values. The leakage emissions are thereafter monitored annually. 1.1. Construction Emissions The basic impact of construction is due to new trunk lanes being built for the BRT project. These emissions are a consequence of the project, although not inside the project boundary. The emissions occur during the production of the required building materials and are thus upstream. The focus is on cement and asphalt. Phase II only used cement. The same is planned for phases III and IV – however the amount of asphalt used is also monitored in case the used construction material changes. For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated upstream construction emissions over the crediting period are 229,424 tCO2eq. 1.2. Vehicle Replacement Emissions The process of scrapping itself creates no additional emissions as buses sooner or later would have been scrapped anyway. The emissions due to scrappage are basically a reduced life-span of the vehicle. This This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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means increased energy use for manufacturing the buses per operating year or kilometre. Energy used for the manufacturing of buses are upstream emissions. For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated upstream emissions resulting from early retirement of buses are over the crediting period 56,826 tCO2eq. 1.3. Upstream Fuel Emissions The extraction, production and transport of fuels results in GHG emissions. Reduced fuel consumption thus reduces more than the combustion emissions. A parameter for upstream emissions is applied. Colombia refines all diesel in own refineries and does not import diesel from Annex I countries. For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated upstream emission reductions resulting from upstream fuel emissions are over the crediting period -243,389 tCO2eq. 1.4. Summary Upstream Emissions Total upstream emissions are the sum of construction, vehicle replacement and upstream fuel emissions. Upstream emissions = 229,424 + 56,826 -243,389 = 42,861 tCO2eq 2. Change of Load Factor Passengers have moved from other modes of transport to the project. If buses or other transport modes continue operating as formerly but with less passengers the result is a drop in the load factor. The project considers, in accordance with the baseline methodology, load factor changes in taxis as well as in the remaining conventional buses. The project retires through scrappage units from the traditional public transport system. TransMilenio expects to reduce the current supply of public transport vehicles and thus to maintain or even increase the load factor of remaining units. For the projections it is thus assumed that the load factor will remain constant and no leakage will occur. The load factor of the remaining bus fleet will be monitored according to the monitoring methodology proposed. The load factor of buses of the public sector before project start is 66%. This is based on a study realized by STT 2002 (Logitrans, 2003, page 20). If the load factor monitored is thus lower than 56% leakage will be included. If the load factor is 56% or higher no leakage will be considered. For monitoring purposes the same methodology and characteristics will be used to measure the load factor of the remaining bus fleet to ensure data comparability. See Annex 3 for key features of the referenced load factor study. Data of 2003 is the appropriate vintage as phase II was not yet operational (start of operations first lane December 2003) while policy measures to reduce the number of vehicles (“pico y placa”) were already in place. Before project start the average occupancy rate for taxis excluding the driver is 0.81 passengers based on data of the year 2002 (“Evaluación y Caracterización del parque automotor de transporte público individual y colectivo en Bogotá D.C y confrontación con la flota necesaria para satisfacer la demanda actual de viajes en este modo, Martha Patricia Ibáñez Pérez –Trabajo de grado – Especialización en transporte – 2004”). If the average occupancy rate for taxis monitored is thus lower than 0.71 leakage will be calculated and included. If the average occupancy rate is equal to or higher than 0.71 no leakage will be considered. For monitoring the same methodology and characteristics will be used to measure the average occupancy rate of the remaining taxi fleet to ensure data comparability. See Annex 3 for key features of the referenced occupancy rate study. Data of 2002 is the appropriate vintage (see argumentation load factor buses above). This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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The total estimated upstream emission reductions resulting from a change of the load factor are estimated ex-ante as 0. 3. Impact of Reduced Congestion on Remaining Roads The impact of induced traffic (additional trips) provoked through the new transport system is addressed directly in the project emissions and is not part of the leakage62. TransMilenio reduces through scrapping the amount of buses on the road and thus reduces potentially congestion. On the other hand TransMilenio also quits some available road space as some trunk routes eliminate former lanes used by all traffic. The impact of TransMilenio depends basically on the interaction between the new trunk roads and the remaining road space. Feeder lines are not considered as they operate equal to the conventional bus system. TransMilenio has dedicated trunk roads where only selected public transport vehicles can operate. The other road space is for passenger cars and the remaining public transport vehicles such as taxis or remaining buses. Following elements need to be considered: ¾ Trunk roads can potentially reduce the space of remaining roads. The proportion of reduced road space available to passenger cars is calculated. ¾ Conventional buses are retired thus freeing road space. The proportion of retired buses and the proportion of public transport in road space is determined. The impact of reduced congestion basically results in a Rebound Effect and a higher average speed plus less stop-and-go traffic leading to lower emissions. The congestion and the speed impact are only calculated ex-ante. For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated emissions due to the rebound effect are 43,328 tCO2eq and due to increased vehicle speed the leakage is estimated in 77,421 tCO2eq.Total leakage emissions due to reduced congestion over the crediting period are thus 34,113 tCO2eq i.e. the project reduces emissions through the reduced congestion. 4. Total Leakage The sum of projected leakages is 12,555 tCO2eq. See for calculations Annex 3. In years in which leakage is negative the value is set at “0”63. Only positive leakage is accounted for. Leakage for upstream emissions and the load factor are monitored during project implementation. Leakage for congestion is not monitored but estimated ex-ante for the project duration. E.3.

The sum of E.1 and E.2 representing the project activity emissions:

Project Activity Emissions = Project Emissions + Leakage. The total estimated project activity emissions over the crediting period are 1,065,749 tCO2eq. E.4.

Estimated anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases of the baseline:

The methodology involves two main steps: 1. Determine emissions per passenger transported per vehicle category. This emission factor is calculated ex-ante project implementation including the usage of a fixed technology change factor. The baseline emission factor is adapted to potential changes in trip distance and type of fuel used

62

The survey of passengers includes as categories passengers which in absence of the project would not have realized the trip.

63

If negative values are accounted for the sum of leakage emissions over the crediting period is 8,748 tCO2eq

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by passenger cars if the surveys indicate that changes in trip distance or fuel type used would lead to lower baseline emission factors. 2. Based on the passengers transported by the project and their modal split the total baseline emissions of the project are calculated ex-post. Core baseline parameters used for calculating the baseline emission factors are reviewed through an annual survey with changes only being applied if the baseline emissions factors would be lower than the original factor to ensure a conservative approach. Passenger numbers are recorded by the system operator. 1. Vehicle Categories Relevant vehicle categories identified include: ¾ Public buses: A differentiation is made between small, medium sized and large buses64. For all subcategories diesel as well as gasoline buses are included. Less than 1% of all buses use CNG or LPG. Thus only diesel and gasoline is included as fuel for buses. However less than 10% of all buses use gasoline. The main fuel used is thus clearly diesel. ¾ Passenger cars: Only gasoline cars are included as they constitute more than 99% of fuel consumed by passenger cars. Diesel as well as gas consumption is well below 1% of fuel consumed.65 ¾ Taxis: Only gasoline is included as diesel constitutes only 2% of total fuel consumed and CNG less than 5%.66 According to vehicle registries of STT 98% of taxis are based on gasoline, 1.9% are diesel and the rest gas67. The difference between the two sources concerning gas fuelled vehicles is probably due to illegal conversions. ¾ Motorcycles are not included as they constitute in Bogotá less than 5% of passenger transport vehicles68 and often motorcycles are used by messengers which would not switch their mode of transport to buses. The baseline value of fuels used by passenger cars is thus gasoline. Annually the fuel-type of passenger cars used by TransMilenio-users will be monitored. If diesel or gas-units will have a share of over 10% (see significance level established in baseline methodology) or 0-emission vehicles have over 1% then the baseline emission factor of passenger cars will be re-calculated. As diesel units in the case of Bogotá have higher GHG emission factors per kilometre than gasoline units only a change to gas (CNG, LNG or LPG) or to 0-emission vehicles is relevant (see Annex 3 for data) as only this change would lead to lower baseline emissions. TransMilenio phase I is not included in the baseline as phase I does not compete but complement the phases II to IV of TransMilenio leading to overall more passengers per trunk route. Phase I units are thus not included in the baseline as the methodology is built upon calculating differentials between the project and what it replaces. Summarized following vehicle categories for the baseline are included: • Diesel and gasoline small, medium and large buses • Passenger cars based on 100% gasoline • Taxis based on 100% gasoline 2. Emissions per Kilometre

64

Small < 20 passengers; medium 20-50 and large > 50 passengers

65

Source: Unidad de Planeación Minero Energético, Ministry of Mines and Energy, Determinación del Mercado real de Combustibles, 2004

66

Source: see former footnote

67

Source: STT 7/2004

68

Source: STT, 2.2005

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The CO2eq emissions per kilometre driven are calculated. This parameter indicates the vehicle efficiency. Emissions per kilometer are calculated before project start and are fixed ex-ante for the project period. 2.1. Emissions per Kilometer of Passenger Cars and Taxis Fuel consumption data for passenger cars is derived from a study realized 2004/5 based on on-road testing of vehicles in Santiago de Chile, Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires69. These cities are considered as comparable in size, congestion and vehicle types to Bogotá. In the case of Sao Paulo only vehicles using gasoline were taken into account excluding vehicles driving with ethanol. The value taken is conservative for Bogotá due to the following factors: • Bogotá has introduced later than any of these cities emission regulations and unleaded fuel. Only since 1997 electronic injected vehicles are used, while former models are carbureted with much higher fuel consumption. The average age of passenger cars in Bogotá is 14 years indicating that still a large share are carburetor based vehicles70. • The average age of monitored vehicles in the three cities was 7 years. In Bogotá however the average age of passenger cars is 14 years. According to the average annual default improvement rate of 1% this would mean a 7% higher consumption in Bogotá than the average measured in the referenced cities. • Bogotá is at an altitude of 2,650 msm and thus has the disadvantage of high-altitude which increases fuel consumption. The cities included in the survey are between 0 and 750 msm and thus considerably lower. The fuel consumption is sensitive to the altitude and thus the same vehicle population in Bogotá has inter alia a higher consumption than the average of referenced cities reported in the survey. • The average vehicle speed reported in the three cities was between 27 and 36km/h. Bogotá is in this range with average vehicle speeds for passenger cars between 27 and 33km/h reported between 2002 and 200471. The approach of using data from these proxy cities can thus be considered as conservative. For taxis as well as passenger cars the same emission factors are applied. Cars do not differentiate substantially between the two groups. For details see Annex 3. 2.2. Emissions per Kilometer of Buses For fuel consumption of buses no reliable database of currently operating vehicles exist. Fuel consumption data is thus derived from IPCC values selecting the one most appropriate for Bogotá. Procedures to determine the adequate category of vehicles of the IPCC followed are: • Determination of average age/vintage of small, medium and large buses per fuel type • Determination of technology used (US or European) • Determination of emission control technologies used as these are the factor used, next to age, to classify the vehicles. Based on these parameters for each bus size the average fuel efficiency is determined. The values can be considered as conservative in light of the high altitude of Bogotá (2,650 msm), the poor maintenance condition in which vehicles are (reflected in high emission values; see DAMA, 2005) and the competition for passengers resulting in an aggressive and fuel consuming driving style. For details see Annex 3. 3. Emissions per Passenger Transported

69

ERPA/Environment Canada et.al., 2005

70

DAMA (Bogotá Environmental Authority), Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Revisión y Ajuste de la Norma de Emisiones por Fuentes Móviles en la Ciudad de Bogotá, 2004

71

STT, 2005

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3.1. Emissions per Passenger Transported for Passenger Cars and Taxis This step results in emission factors showing the emissions per passenger per average trip for passenger cars and for taxis. Average occupancy rates and average trip distance are used for both categories as this data is available with good quality. For details see Annex 3. 3.2. Emissions per Passenger Transported for Buses The approach here is based on total passengers transported and total kilometres driven using the same data base (STT). The impact of vehicle driving restrictions, promotion of public transport, TransMilenio phase I including scrappage of vehicles is included as the database used is the year 2002/0372. For details see Annex 3. 3.3. Change of Trip Distance The annual monitoring performed by the project records the average trip distances of passengers using TransMilenio which would have used in absence of latter passenger cars or taxis73. If the trip distance recorded annually is lower than the trip distance taken to calculate the baseline emission factor latter is corrected according to the new distance. For ex-ante baseline emission calculations it is assumed that the trip distance remains constant. However this factor is monitored through the project. 4. Technological Change Technological improvement of vehicles can lead to reduced GHG emissions. The rate of improvement is dependent on vehicle category and on the type of vehicle which clients finally choose (e.g. SUVs, small cars, large cars). Replacement rates can vary over time and depend also on existing stocks. For simplicity purposes an annual average improvement rate is used per vehicle category. The improvement rate is applied to each calendar year. The default technology improvement factors per vehicle category provided by the baseline methodology are used. The factor IR is a constant. 5. Policy Effects National, regional or local policies which have been legally adopted are included in the baseline. Data used in the baseline includes the impact of these policies. National policies which have been enforced till 2006 and which have had an impact on transport are mainly: ¾ Bicycle promotion program including the construction of special bicycle lanes and promotion policies for NMT (Non-Motorized Transport) ¾ Restrictions on using private cars and traffic restrictions in general especially downtown. The main policy applied in this context is based on the vehicle plate numbers restricting the driving days. This policy was implemented prior to 2002 and is included in the baseline calculations. The main potential impact of such a policy is a modal shift towards public transport. ¾ Improved control of the number of illegal public transport vehicles to reduce the public transport supply. ¾ Public awareness campaign to promote NMT and the usage of public transport. These policies have had an influence on the modal split. They were however already implemented before 2002 i.e. before the first part of Phase II started operations. The monitoring of passengers in the new transport system is realized 2006 onwards i.e. when policies have already been in force quite some time. 72

All above mentioned policies were implemented prior to 2002

73

The other categories have 0 baseline emissions and are thus not included in baseline emissions. Public transport i.e. buses are not included as the project monitors the load factor. In the short and medium term changes in the individual trip distance have no influence on routes and distances driven by buses.

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People have thus already switched before if at all to public transport. The policies mentioned above and their impact on the transport system are thus included already in the baseline. According to the resolution 180687 dated June 17th 2003 Art. 5 gasoline shall be blended in Bogotá with 10% ethanol as per latest 27th of September of 200574. As per January 1st 2006 this policy has not been implemented. According to EB 22 report Annex 3 “Clarifications on the consideration of national and/or sectoral policies and circumstances in baseline scenarios (version 02)” this a national regulation that gives comparative advantages to less emission-intensive technologies (type E- policy). According to Art. 7 of the above mentioned document “National and/or sectoral policies or regulations under paragraph 6 (b) (type E-policies) that have been implemented since the adoption by the COP of the CDM M&P (decision 17/CP.7, 11 November 2001) need not be taken into account in developing a baseline scenario (i.e. the baseline scenario could refer to a hypothetical situation without the national and/or sectoral policies or regulations being in place).” The regulation requiring blending with ethanol was issued after Nov 11th 2001 and the implementation deadline was 27th September 2005, well after 11.11.2001. In practice the policy has not been implemented till 1.1.2006 (start of the crediting period of the proposed project). The baseline fuel used by passenger cars and taxis is thus considered as unblended gasoline i.e. the baseline fuel refers to a hypothetical situation without the national regulation being in place as clarified by the EB 22 Annex 375. Monitoring is realized on a regular base for policies affecting parameters of the baseline including: 1. Assessment of new and enforced policies which affect to a significant manner the modal split of passengers in the project area. As significant are considered policies which expect to change the modal split by 5 percentage points or more based on their cumulative effect towards public transport. The expected modal split change is based on calculation or targets realized by the policy proponents (i.e. the ministry or governmental authority in charge of the policy). If such a policy has been enforced in year “y” no survey is realized and the modal split of the year “y-1” is applied to all passengers using the system. This ensures that the full effect of additional modal split change is attributed to the policy. Typical policies in this context are restrictions on the usage of private cars or policies changing the relative prices of transport modes e.g. through road tolls. 2. Assessment of new and enforced policies changing the fuel usage of vehicles (e.g. regulations concerning maximum fuel usage). 3. Assessment of any other policy which might effect baseline parameters and include their cumulative effect in the new baseline parameters. 6. Determination of Total Baseline Emissions The baseline emissions for all passengers transported by the project are calculated. A differentiation is made according to the mode of transport, which the person would have used in absence of the project. The total amount of passengers transported by the project is reported by the system operator. The emissions of the baseline are thus calculated using the fixed baseline emission factor per vehicle category determined ex-ante multiplied by the quantity of passengers that are transported using the project. Basically the difference of efficiency in transporting passengers by the project compared to the efficiency of transporting passengers in different modes in the baseline is measured. The number of passengers transported by each mode of transport is based on a survey which determines the share of passengers which use this mode. 74

The law 693 dated 27.9.2001 to which regulation 180687 refers, calls for an oxygenation of fuels without making the usage of ethanol compulsory for this purpose. World-wide oxygenation of gasoline was and is made primarily with MTBE and not through the usage of ethanol. Law 693 also does not specify a certain blending level (the applicability condition of the methodology allows blending of up to 3%). Law 693 can thus be considered a general policy to promote the oxygenation of gasoline fuels without specifying neither the usage of bio-fuels nor a certain blending level. 75

See arguments applicability conditions

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Details of the survey are in Annex 3. ADAPTATION TO CHANGING TRIP DISTANCES The average trip distance is a factor that in general changes over time. In most cities average trip distance tends to increase. Projections of the planning department of Bogotá indicate that estimated average trips in public transport are expected to increase from 8km in the year 2000 to 10.5 km in 2015 due to urban growth and area zoning76. While the new public transport system in the medium-term can influence trip distances e.g. over changing urban growth patterns, other factors tend to have a stronger impact on trip distances. The project assumes that to a significant extent the average trip length is influenced by project external factors which would have affected the baseline as well as the project equally. The impact of longer trip distances in the short to medium term are no additional emissions in the public transport system as lines are not extended and the fuel usage of buses is nearly equal if the average occupancy rate is higher than before77. Occupancy rates are measured through leakage by the project. Passenger car emissions would however rise. Baseline emissions thus increase with longer trip distances while project emissions would stay constant. Higher trip distances would thus lead to increased emission reductions. Using a constant trip length is thus a conservative approach underestimating the emission benefits of the project. For passenger cars and for taxis the project monitors the average trips distance of TransMilenio users which in absence of latter would have used these modes of transport. If the registered and monitored distance traveled is shorter than the baseline distance then this factor is adjusted resulting in lower baseline emissions. If the distance traveled from these modes of transport is however higher then no corresponding change in the original baseline emissions are made i.e. the approach used is conservative in only adjusting emission factors to shorter trip distances. Induced travel is included in leakage calculations (induced travel passenger cars) as well as in the baseline (induced travel public transport). Induced traffic is thus accounted for when calculating the emission reductions. The projected mode distribution for the life-span of the project is based on the results of the survey for various months. This data is monitored annually. For specific calculations of baseline emissions see Annex 3. Total expected baseline emissions are 2,791,689 tCO2eq E.5.

Difference between E.4 and E.3 representing the emission reductions of the project activity:

Total expected emission reductions of the project activity are 1,725,940 tCO2 A thorough sensitivity analysis of all parameters and data used for calculations has been made to assess the robustness of results presented (see Annex 3 for details). Data used is proven to be robust. E.6. Year 2006 2007

76

Table providing values obtained when applying formulae above Estimation of project activity emissions (tCO2eq) 56,179 79,391

Estimation of baseline emissions (tCO2eq)

Estimation of leakage (tCO2eq)

Estimation of emission reductions (tCO2eq)

154,569 216,246

3,823 2,845

94,567 134,011

Republic of Colombia, National Planning Department, CONPES study 3093, 15.11.2000

77

Longer trip distances lead inter alia to higher average occupancy rates as more passengers are registered while maintaining the same total distance driven of buses.

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2008 135,685 365,885 0 2009 182,336 486,767 0 2010 182,336 481,900 845 2011 208,634 545,890 521 2012 208,634 540,431 4,521 Total (tCO2eq) 1,053,194 2,791,689 12,555 Note: Negative leakage in years 2008 and 2009 is not accounted for (conservative measure). Source: See Annex 3.

230,201 304,432 298,719 336,735 327,276 1,725,940

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SECTION F. Environmental impacts F.1. Documentation on the analysis of the environmental impacts, including transboundary impacts: The project complies with all legal requirements of the environmental legislation of Colombia, enforced by the Department of Environmental Affairs (DAMA). It also complies with the social and environmental guidelines issued by IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano) and the CAF. All environmental permits required have been granted. Phase II and following of TransMilenio do not require an environmental licence (in contrast to phase I) as TransMilenio is included in the “Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial, POT”78. For the construction of trunk roads IDU has received a global environmental licence based on the Environmental Guidelines granted by DAMA according to resolution 991 of 2001. Based on the resolution 991 of 2001 IDU in cooperation with DAMA issued environmental guidelines79. According to these guidelines trunk roads built for TransMilenio are classified as infrastructure with a potentially significant environmental impact (category “C”80) and thus require an EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) and an Environmental Management Plan (EMP) from the contractor. The EIAs are realized in segments of trunk roads according to assigned contracts. IDU issues for this purpose the requirements concerning the EIA and the contractor selected for the respective trunk road segment realizes the EIA and proposes and implements an environmental management plan. The contractor must present a program for the implementation of the EMP called PIPMA81. This document contains in detail the environmental action plan which the constructor will realize to comply with all the conditions specified in the guidelines issued by IDU. He is also responsible for acquiring all required permits e.g. for cutting trees. Based on the PIPMA checklists with indicators are established to supervision the correct execution of the environmental management plan. Based on these checklists a supervision of the implementation of the environmental management plan by the contractor is realized on a monthly base by IDU. The guidelines of IDU establish the corrective actions and the consequences of non-attainment of environmental goals. The global environmental licence of TransMilenio as included in the “Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial, POT” is valid for all phases. For the construction of trunk roads IDU has received a global environmental licence based on the Environmental Guidelines granted by DAMA according to resolution 991 of 2001. For individual segments of trunk roads IDU will again demand EIA and environmental management plans. However Phase III contracts for construction have not yet been awarded and phase IV has not yet been designed in detail. As the constructor as first task has to perform an EIA latter are only realized after contract award and therefore EIAs are not yet available for phase III and following. For the operation of TransMilenio “Planes de Manejo Ambiental PMA” (environmental management plans) need to be presented and approved by DAMA for each depot bus station at maximum 6 months after starting operations82. Thereafter every semester a follow-up report has to be delivered to DAMA. Phase II has three depot stations. “Patio de las Americas” has initiated operations 1.1.2006, “Patio de Sur” has initiated operations April 15th 2006 and “Patio de Suba” April 29th 2006. El “Patio de las Americas” has been granted all required permits. The other two depots are as of July 15th 2006 realizing their respective environmental management plan.

78

See Decree 1220 of April 21st, 2005 of the Ministry of Environment

79

IDU, Guia de Manejo Ambiental para el Desarrollo de Proyectos de Infraestructura urbana en el Distrito Central

80

See page 7 of guidelines

81

Programa de Implementacion del Plan de Manejo Ambiental

82

The bus stations include the parking lot for buses, the maintenance area as well as the operation of buses.

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F.2. If environmental impacts are considered significant by the project participants or the host Party, please provide conclusions and all references to support documentation of an environmental impact assessment undertaken in accordance with the procedures as required by the host Party: The environmental impact of the project is considered highly positive. Following environmental impacts are expected from Phase II to IV of TransMilenio: ¾ Reduction of around 7’000t of particle matter over the first crediting period. This is a significant share of total particle matter in Bogotá. Particle emissions are one of the main responsible pollutants for respiratory diseases. ¾ Reduction of more than 50’000t of NOx over the first crediting period. NOx is next to NMHCs a precursor responsible for ground ozone formation. ¾ Reduction of more than 800 tons of sulphur dioxide over the first crediting period due to reduced fuel consumption in the project versus baseline case of buses. Reductions are calculated in a conservative manner. Additionally emission reductions occur due to a modal switch reducing the number of passenger cars and taxis circulating comparing the project with the baseline. For details of calculations see Annex 3. The monitoring software designed for TransMilenio also tracks the local environmental effects. Transboundary air pollution is a particular problem for pollutants that are not easily destroyed or react in the atmosphere to form secondary pollutants. Typical transboundary air pollutants are carbon monoxide, PM10, non-methane VOCs83 and NOx (resulting potentially in ground-level ozone which again is a major component of smog) or sulphur dioxide (SO2 together with NOx are primary precursors of acid rain). The most important in the case of diesel based mass transport systems are PM10, NOx and sulphur dioxide. The direct impact on transboundary air pollution is not estimated as no data is available on this part. It is however clear that the project has a positive impact on a potential transboundary air pollution due to reduced emissions of air pollutants (PM, NOx, SO2 basically) due to the project and quantified above. Next to less air pollution the project also has the environmental benefit of reduced noise pollution due to a reduced amount of vehicles, an improved traffic fluidity with less stop-and-go traffic and more modern units. Phase II has realized for the construction phase all EIAs and environmental management plans as required by the environmental guidelines established by IDU. All permits were granted and the implementation of the environmental management plans were supervised by IDU. The potential impacts of the construction are stated in the respective EIAs and the environmental management plans. They are dependent on the respective segment of each trunk road for which an individual construction contract was signed with a third party (EIAs and environmental management plans are made for each segment of a trunk road which has been granted to a constructor). The complete list of all potential impacts are thus individually described in each EIA. The potential impacts are typical of road construction such as cutting trees, debris, noise and air pollution during construction etc. SECTION G. Stakeholders’ comments G.1.

Brief description how comments by local stakeholders have been invited and compiled:

Main stakeholders identified include the general public, persons living near construction sites of trunk routes and owners as well as drivers of existing (baseline) buses. General Public 83

Volatile Organic Components

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They are the users of the public transport system and the prime beneficiaries due to a reduced travel time, less congestion (also relevant for users of private vehicles) and an improved air quality. TransMilenio realizes through a professional company monthly customer satisfaction surveys. The quality of services offered is thus monitored on a regular base and complaints of clients are received. Stakeholders and system users as well as the public in general can also realize complaints or remarks through the website of TransMilenio84 or a phone hotline (number 195). The persons realizing a complaint receive a direct answer through the same mechanism as used for the complaint. An example of the involvement of the public in the development of TransMilenio is e.g. their participation in the determination of routes (see Logitrans, 2003, Parte III Analisis de Solicitudes de la Communidad). Records of all complaints as well as of follow-up measures are maintained by TransMilenio. Complaints concern e.g. excess of velocity, full buses, delays etc. Monthly all complaints are categorized according to type of complaint and media through which complaint has been made (e.g. written, hotline, Internet). Based on these reports corrective measures are taken by TransMilenio. During the period 2004/5 TransMilenio participated in 36 fairs realized in all communities of the District of Bogotá attending questions of users concerning Phase II and informing about the expansion of TransMilenio. 2005 TransMilenio received for instance more than 25’000 questions, comments or complaints realized by 48% per phone and by 38% through e-mail/Internet. 46% of all interventions were complaints, 44% requests for information and the rest suggestions on how to improve services. Persons Living Near to Construction Sites Persons living near to construction sites or sites where major bus-stations are built are potentially affected by these activities. IDU has established near to construction sites focal points where the local community can deposit their concerns. IDU maintains records of all complaints received as well as the actions taken towards these complaints. These points allow for dissemination of information and to address concerns of the community. The focal points also encourage the community to participate in workshops dealing with topics such as public space management or environmental aspects. IDU in cooperation with DAMA issued environmental guidelines85. The guidelines include as part of the environmental management plan a social management plan compulsory for contractors of trunk routes of TransMilenio 86. This plan shall facilitate the participation of the community in the construction process (information and attend community requests basically), foster positive social impacts and mitigate negative ones. Strategies used include the establishment of focal encounter points87 including their committee (leaders of the community), information points and a dissemination strategy. The guidelines issued by IDU detail activities and methodologies to be followed by the contractor, which, based on these guidelines proposes the social management plan. Checklists with indicators are established to ascertain the implementation of the social management plan. These are controlled on a monthly base by IDU. Owners and Drivers of Baseline Buses Owners and drivers of the existing (baseline) public transport system fear to suffer economic losses. The strategy followed by TransMilenio to resolve this potential problem includes two components:

84

http://www.transmilenio.gov.co/transmilenio/frameset_gneral_us.htm

85

IDU, Guia de Manejo Ambiental para el Desarrollo de Proyectos de Infraestructura urbana en el Distrito Central

86

Component “B” of the PIPMA (Plan to implement the environmental management plan); see page 17 of guidelines

87

Puntos CREAs (Centro de Reunion, Encuentro y Atencion en obra)

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¾

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Inclusion of affected persons in the operation of TransMilenio: For TransMilenio phase II (in contrast to phase I) the bidding process was changed giving a significant incentive for owners of traditional public transport buses to participate in TransMilenio. While this had no weight in Phase I in Phase II 200 out of 1’400 possible points were given according to the participation of individual bus owners in the capital of the bidder. The result was that Phase II could attract a share-participation of 23% of former bus owners in the transport companies operating the trunk-routes of TransMilenio (1’850 bus owners) and 31% in the feeder routes (4’985 former bus owners) thus including sucessfully a significant proportion of potentially affected stakeholders88. Financial compensation: The scrappage program pays gives a financial incentive for bus owners for their vehicle. To attract buses this financial incentive needs to be higher than the residual market value of the vehicle. Due to the scrappage program bus owners thus receive a financial compensation which allows them the opportunity to invest in a new business venture. Around 50% of participants in the round-tables indicated that they would be interested in entering other business fields instead of transport89.

¾

For new phases Bogotá organized various roundtable meetings with small and micro transport enterprises owners of one or few buses with the objective of democratizing the system i.e. including more small enterprises in TransMilenio. Additionally the District of Bogotá realized May 9th 2006, 5 roundtable meetings with stakeholders of phase II and III of TransMilenio. These meetings are continued (in a weekly manner) to encounter acceptable solutions for Phase III. All important associations grouping individual bus-owners take part in these round-tables. G.2. Summary of the comments received: “Market de Colombia” realizes the monthly customer surveys on behalf of TransMilenio. They also make a summary report of comments received. A complete list of all monthly complaints is available. The evaluation is consolidated in a general service index. Complaints of bus owners refer basically to their non-inclusion in phase I of TransMilenio as the bid structure favoured implicitly large and well organized companies. Phase II has realized for the construction part a social management plans as required by the environmental guidelines established by IDU for all segments of all trunk roads. The implementation of latter was controlled on a monthly base by IDU following the pre-established checklists. Comments considering trunk road constructions are diverse and include information requests, access to roads, traffic caused etc. G.3.

Report on how due account was taken of any comments received:

“Market de Colombia” realizes the monthly customer surveys on behalf of TransMilenio. They also make a summary report of comments received. The evaluation is consolidated in a general service index. Persons depositing complaints, remarks or questions receive a direct feedback from TransMilenio relying on the same communication channel (e.g. mail, phone) as used by the person depositing a claim. The monthly service record is fed into the quality assurance program of TransMilenio leading to a continuous improvement of services offered. TransMilenio has a service improvement plan which is based on the evaluation reports mentioned above. Aspects included concern both infrastructure as well as operational issues. Also dialogue meetings with involved stakeholders have been strengthened. Possible outcomes are e.g. an increase of bus frequency, improved maintenance etc. Outcomes of meetings are posted on the website of TransMilenio www.transmilenio.gov.co

88

Source: TransMilenio 2005

89

TransMilenio, 6/2006

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The remarks received from people living near to construction sites were followed-up and integrated by IDU. Records of all requests and complaints per trunk road segment as well as the respective corrective action are documented by IDU. All comments received at CREAs are documented including name and contact details of person realizing the request, date, request itself, classification of request, date and contents of response to the request as well as corrective actions taken. One of the elements to improve stakeholder acceptance was to employ basically persons from the neighbourhood in the construction activities. More than 30% of qualified and nearly 70% of unqualified staff was employed in Phase II from the neighbouring communities90. The results of the roundtables and the discussions with bus owners resulted in significant changes in the way how small enterprises participate in phases II and following of TransMilenio. This was achieved by changing the public bid structure and points given to participating companies. The share of small enterprises could be increased drastically through this measure thus showing clearly the positive response of TransMilenio to criticism of the conventional transport sector.

90

Source: TransMilenio Informe 82: Cuadro consolidado de generación de empleo

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Annex 1 CONTACT INFORMATION ON PARTICIPANTS IN THE PROJECT ACTIVITY Project Host Organization: Empresa Distrital de Transporte del Tercer Milenio TRANSMILENIO S.A. Street/P.O.Box: Av. El Dorado 66-63 Building: Antiguo Edificio de la Energía City: Bogotá D.C. State/Region: Distrito Capital Postfix/ZIP: Country: Colombia Telephone: 57 1 2203000 FAX: 57 1 2203000 E-Mail: [email protected] URL: www.transmilenio.gov.co Represented by: Title: Director Salutation: Mr Last Name: Roa Middle Name: First Name: Raúl Department: Transport Planing Department Mobile: 57 310 2148347 Direct FAX: 57 1 3249870 Direct tel: 57 1 2203000 Ext. 1702 Personal E-Mail: [email protected] Project Developer responsible for the CDM project activity Organization: Corporación Andina de Fomento CAF Street/P.O.Box: Av. Luis Roche, Altamira Building: Torre CAF City: Caracas State/Region: Distrito Federal Postfix/ZIP: 69011 Country: Venezuela Telephone: 58 212 2092407 FAX: 58 212 2092406 E-Mail: [email protected] URL: www.caf.com Represented by: Title: Senior executive Salutation: Ms Last Name: Torres Middle Name: First Name: Mary Department: Environment Department Mobile: 58 212 2092407 Direct FAX: 58 212 2092406 Direct tel: 58 212 2092407 Personal E-Mail: [email protected] Project Sponsor This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

Organization: Street/P.O.Box: Building: City: State/Region: Postfix/ZIP: Country: Telephone: FAX: E-Mail: URL: Represented by: Title: Salutation: Last Name: Middle Name: First Name: Department: Mobile: Direct FAX: Direct tel: Personal E-Mail:

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Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment (VROM) PO Box 30945 Den Haag 2500 GX The Netherlands + 31 70 3394693 + 31 70 3391306 www.minvrom.nl Head of Clean Development Mechanism Division Mr De Jonge Lex Directorate General for Environmental Protection + 31 70 3391306 + 31 70 3394693 [email protected]

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Annex 2 INFORMATION REGARDING PUBLIC FUNDING There is no Official Development Assistance in this project and the project will not receive any public funding from Parties included in Annex I. Funding is from the national and the district government through budgetary allocations and does not include any official development assistance and is not counted towards the financial obligations of Annex 1 parties. Credits used by institutions such as the World Bank or the CAF are not concessionary and have no ODA components.

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

Annex 3 Contents: A.3.1. A.3.2. A.3.3. A.3.4. A.3.5. A.3.6. A.3.7. A.3.8. A.3.9. A.3.10. A.3.11. A.3.12. A.3.13. A.3.14. A.3.15. A.3.16.

Project Emissions Upstream Construction Emissions Upstream Emissions due to Early Retirement (Scrapping) Upstream Emissions from Fuel Saved Total Upstream Leakage Details of Load Factor Study Buses Details of Load Factor Study Taxis Leakage Emissions due to Reduced Congestion (rebound effect and vehicle speed change) Total Leakage Emissions Baseline Emissions Passenger Cars and Taxis Baseline Emissions Buses Total Baseline Emissions Details of Survey to Identify Mode of Transport Sensitivity Analysis Local Environmental Impact Literature Used

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

A.3.1. Project Emissions Formula (A1)

PE y = TC y × (EFCO 2, D + EFCH 4, D + EFN 2O , D ) Where: PEy TCy EFCO2,D EFCH4,D EFN2O,D

Project emissions in year “y” Total consumption of fuel (diesel) in liters for project for year “y“ CO2 emission factor per liter diesel CH4 emission factor per liter diesel (based on GWP) N2O emission factor per liter diesel (based on GWP)

Formula (A2)

TC y = (TCTB , y + TC FB , y )× Where: TCy TCTB,y TCFB,y PPJ,y PTM,T,y

PPJ , y PTM ,T , y

Total consumption of fuel in liters for project for year “y“ Total consumption of fuel of trunk buses in liters for project for year “y“ Total consumption of fuel of feeder buses in liters for project for year “y“ Passengers transported by the project for the year “y” Passengers transported by TransMilenio in total for the year “y”

Formula (A3)

PPJ , y = PTM ,T , y − PTM , I , y Where: PPJ,y PTM,T,y PTM,I,y

Passengers transported by the project (TransMilenio phase II-IV) for the year “y” Passengers transported by TransMilenio in total for the year “y” Passengers transported by TransMilenio Phase I for the year “y”

All buses are using diesel fuel. Buses used are all large units. The default emissions factors are taken from the baseline methodology based on large diesel buses (Appendix A, Table A.1.). For calculation purposes ex-ante formulaes (A4) and (A5) are used. During monitoring the actual fuel consumed will be used. Formula (A4)

TC j , y = SEC j × DD j , y where: TCj,y SECj DDj,y

Total consumption of fuel in liters for bus type “j” in year “y“ where “j” incude trunk and feeder buses Specific fuel consumption of diesel in liters for bus type “j” Distance driven for bus type “j” in year “y”

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

Formula (A5)

DD j , y = Where: DDj,,y IPKj PPJ,y

PPJ , y IPK j Distance driven for bus type “j” in year “y” Index Passenger-Kilometer for bus type “j” (IPK=passenger/km) Passengers transported by the project (TransMilenio phase II-IV) for the year “y”

Table A.3.1.1. Data Used for Project Emissions Abbreviation Description Value SECTB Specific fuel con61.1 sumption trunk buses

Unit l/100km

Source TransMilenio, 2006

SECFB

Specific fuel consumption feeder buses

37.8

l/100km

TransMilenio, 2006

EFCO2,D

Emission factor per liter of diesel fuel resulting from CO2

2,661

gr CO2eq/l

IPCC, 1996

EFCH4,D

Emission factor per liter of diesel fuel resulting from CH4

2

gr CO2eq/l

IPCC, 1996

EFN2O,D

Emission factor per liter of diesel fuel resulting from N2O

21

gr CO2eq/l

IPCC, 1996

IPKTB

IPK of trunk buses

5.4

IPKFB

IPK of feeder buses

13.1

Passengers/km Passengers/km

TransMilenio, 2006 TransMilenio, 2006

PPJ,y

Number of passengers project (TrasnMilenio phase II-IV)

See below

Passengers

TransMilenio, 12/2005

Comments Data of fuel consumption reported by all trunk route operators 15, 2006 Data of fuel consumption reported by all feeder route operators 1-5, 2006 Default parameter baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.1. large diesel buses Default parameter baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.1. large diesel buses Default parameter baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.1. large diesel buses Average value 20012005 Data of all passengers and kilometers driven of all feeder route operators 1-5, 2006 Based on planning forecasts by TransMilenio based on entry of new trunk routes; for 2006 adjustment to forecast based on monitored passengers Jan-May 2006 (lower than forecast due to late entry of buses and some parts of trunk routes)

Results (values expressed as results are always based on exact values – differences to data in tables are based on rounding): This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

Table A.3.1.2 Results Million passengers project Million km trunk buses Million km feeder buses Million liters of diesel used Total project emissions tCO2eq

2006 147 27 11 21

2007 208 39 16 30

2008 356 66 27 51

2009 478 89 37 68

2010 478 89 37 68

2011 547 101 42 78

2012 547 101 42 78

total 2,763 512 211 392

56,179

79,391

135,685

182,336

182,336

208,634

208,634

1,053,194

Total in 7 years: 1,053,194 tCO2eq

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

A.3.2. Upstream Construction Emissions Formula (A6)

LE CON , y =

CEM × EFCEM × DTCEM + ASP × EFASP × DT ASP Y

Where: LECON,y CEM ASP EFCEM EFASP DTCEM DTASP Y

Emissions leakage due to construction in year “y” Cement used per kilometre of trunk lane Asphalt used per kilometre of trunk lane Specific emissions factor for cement Specific emissions factor for asphalt Total kilometres of trunk lanes built in project made of cement (km * number of trunk lanes) Total kilometres of trunk lanes built in project made of asphalt (km * number of trunk lanes) crediting years of project (7)

Table A.3.2.1. Data Used for Leakage Construction Emissions Abbreviation Description Value Unit CEM Cement used per km 1,338 t/km of trunk lane

Source IDU, 2005

EFCEM

Emission factor for cement

0.99

tCO2eq/tcement

IPCC and WBCSD

DTCEM

Kilometers of trunk lanes built

See below

km

IDU, 2005

Comments Data is monitored annually. Current value is based on records of 2003/4 Based on default value in baseline methodology Appendix A, leakage parameter 1 Each lane is counted91

No asphalt has been used in phase II. It is not planned to use asphalt in phases III and IV. Table A.3.2.2 Results 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 km of trunk lanes (cumulative) 95 120 158 184 202 219 Emissions tCO2eq (annualized) 17,901 22,670 29,842 34,875 38,130 41,385 Emissions are annualized based on a 7 year crediting period (cumulative emissions / 7)

2012

total

236 44,621

236 229,424

Values expressed as results are always based on exact values – differences to data in tables are based on rounding. Total in 7 years: 229,424 tCO2eq

91

E.g. Americas has 4 lanes, while NQS has 2 lanes. The distance of the lanes is thus not equivalent to the distance of trunk routes as latter are counted independent of the number of lanes

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

A.3.3. Upstream Emissions Due to Early Retirement (Scrapping) Formula (A7) y

LE LSP , y = Where: LELSP,y BSCRw EFBM BABL BAPJ Y

∑ BSCR w =1

w

× EFBM ×

BABL − BAPJ BABL

Y Emissions leakage due to reduced life-span of buses in year “y” Bus units scrapped by project in the year “w”, where w = 1 to “y” Emissions factor for bus manufacturing Average age BAU when buses are replaced /retired in the baseline scenario Average bus age of scrapped buses under the project activity crediting years of project (7)

Table A.3.3.1. Data Used for Leakage Scrappage Emissions Abbreviation Description Value Unit BSCR Buses scrapped by 7.7 units Buses project per trunk route bus

Source TransMilenio

EFBM

Emission factor for bus manufacturing

42

tCO2eq/bus

SAEFL

BABL

Average replacement age baseline scenario

40

Years

STT, Logitrans, Table 3, 2004

BAPJ

Age of scrapped buses under project activity

See below

Years

See below for calculation

Comments Data is monitored annually. Ex-ante values are based on bidding documents and the number of trunk buses (see NTB) Based on default value in baseline methodology Appendix A, leakage parameters, number 3 Data until 2003 i.e. before phase II entered into operation (see table below) Monitored; for calculation purposes the latest buses are replaced in a cumulative manner (see table below)

The number of trunk buses entering is determined based on the total distanced driven trunk buses and the average distance driven per unit (80,898 km per annum based on data of all trunk buses 1-5, 2006, TransMilenio 2006) Table A.3.3.2. Results 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 total Trunk buses entering 330 136 331 274 0 155 0 1,226 Buses to be scrapped 2,542 1,050 2,547 2,111 0 1,190 0 9,441 92 Age of scrapped buses 36 32 30 28 n.a. 28 n.a. Annual emissions in 1,525 2,786 6,606 10,406 10,406 12,548 12,548 56,826 tCO2eq - Average age of scrapped buses based on retiring the eldest vehicles per year. The average vintage is determined by the 50percentile.

Total in 7 years: 56,826 tCO2eq

92

Based on eliminating in a cumulative manner the buses listed in table A.3.3.3. beginning from the eldest

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Table A.3.3.3. Age Distribution of Buses in Bogotá (year 2004) Year Units Units cu% cumulaYear mulative tive Prior 1960 106 106 1% 1982 1960 46 152 1% 1983 1984 1961 60 212 1%

1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

55 26 20 69 21 90 242 157 233 420 536 232 335 621 722 531 496 735 724 894

267 293 313 382 403 493 735 892 1125 1545 2081 2313 2648 3269 3991 4522 5018 5753 6477 7371

1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 8% 9% 10% 12% 15% 17% 19% 22% 25% 28%

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

units 830 507

Units cumulative 8201 8708

% cumulative 31% 33%

667 273 180 120 194 522 672 1046 1550 2809 1533 1241 686 812 923 491 1178 1290 1299 314

9375 9648 9828 9948 10,142 10,664 11,336 12,382 13,932 16,741 18,274 19,515 20,201 21,013 21,936 22,427 23,605 24,895 26,194 26,508

35% 37% 37% 38% 38% 40% 43% 47% 53% 63% 69% 74% 76% 79% 83% 85% 89% 94% 99% 100%

Source: STT based on vehicle registry data, 2004 (Logitrans-study), Table 3; cumulative by Grütter

>99% of buses are younger than 1962; thus replacement age: 40 years (this is a conservative value as the higher the retirement age the higher the calculated scrappage emissions)

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A.3.4. Upstream Emissions from Fuel Saved Formula (A8)

LEUFP , y = (PE y − BE y )× UEF Where: LEUFP,y PEy BEy UEF

Emission leakage due to upstream fuel production emissions in year “y” Project emissions in year “y” Baseline emissions in year “y” Upstream emissions multiplier, based on default factor

Table A.3.4.1. Data Used for Leakage Upstream Emissions from Fuel Saved Abbreviation Description Value Unit Source UEF Default factor for 14% percentL-Bupstream emissions age Systemtechnik from fuel production GmbH, 2002

Table A.3.4.2. Results 2006 ER in tCO2eq 98,389 LEUFP tCO2eq -13,775

2007 136,856 -19,160

2008 230,201 -32,228

2009 304,432 -42,620

2010 299,564 -41,939

2011 337,256 -47,216

Comments Based on default value in baseline methodology Appendix A, baseline and project emissions parameters number 5

2012 331,797 -46,452

total 1,738,495 -243,389

Values expressed as results are always based on exact values – differences to data in tables are based on rounding. Total in 7 years: -243,389 tCO2eq

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A.3.5. Total Upstream Leakage Formula (A9)

LEUP , y = LE CON , y + LE LSP , y + LEUFP , y Where: LEUP,y LECON,y LELSP,y LEUFP,y

Emissions leakage due to upstream processes in year “y” Emissions leakage due to construction in year “y” Emissions leakage due to reduced life-span of buses in year “y” Emission leakage due to upstream emissions from fuel production in year “y”

Table A.3.5.1. Results Construction emissions in tCO2eq Scrapping emissions in tCO2eq Upstream fuel emissions in tCO2eq Total upstream emissions in tCO2eq

2006 17,901 1,525 -13,775

2007 22,670 2,786 -19,160

2008 29,842 6,606 -32,228

2009 34,875 10,406 -42,620

2010 38,130 10,406 -41,939

2011 41,385 12,548 -47,216

2012 44,621 12,548 -46,452

total 229,424 56,826 -243,389

5,652

6,296

4,220

2,661

6,597

6,717

10,717

42,861

Total in 7 years: 42,861 tCO2eq

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A.3.6. Leakage due to Changing Load Factor of Baseline Buses Formula (A10)

⎛ ROC Z , y LE LF , Z , y = EFKM , Z , y × VDZ × N Z , y × ⎜⎜1 − ROC Z ,0 ⎝ Where: LELF,Z,y EFKM, Z,y VDZ NZ,y ROCZ, y ROCZ,0

⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠

Emissions Leakage from change of load factor in buses baseline in year “y” Emissions per kilometer of buses baseline for the year “y” Annual average distance driven per bus baseline before project start Number of buses in the conventional transport system operating in year “y” Average occupancy rate relative to capacity of conventional buses in year “y”, based on the most recent study of occupancy rates Average occupancy rate relative to capacity of buses baseline before start of project

Note: If ROCZ,0 - ROCZ, y ≤ 0.1 then LELF,Z,y = 0 Formula (A11):

VDZ =

∑ DD ∑N

k =S ,M ,L

k = S ,M , L

where: VDZ DDZ,k NZZ,k

Z ,k

Z ,k

Annual average distance driven per bus baseline before project start Total distance driven by buses baseline of size “k” Number of buses baseline of size “k”

Table A.3.6.1. Data Used for Leakage Change of Load Factor Baseline Buses Abbreviation Description Value Unit Source ROCZ,0 Average occupancy 66% percentLogitrans, rate baseline buses age 2003, page 20 before project start DDZ,K Total distance driven 1,589 Million STT, 2003baseline buses before kilometers 2005 project start per year

NZ,k

Total number of baseline buses before project start

26,508

buses

Comments

Based on average distance driven per bus size (S,M,L) recorded 2/04, 8/04 and 2/05 multiplied with the average number of buses per category

STT cited in Logitrans, 2003, table 4

Results

VDZ =

1,589,281,122 = 59,955km 26,508

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The study to determine the occupancy rate of buses is realized minimum in 2008, 2011 and 2015. The methodology follows the methodology used by Logitrans, 2003 (contrato PNUD COL/01/23, Análisis de Corredores, Logitrans 2003; page 16ff). The points of measurement will change as areas are monitored where the traditional bus system continues operating. The methodology used however will be the same to ensure consistency and comparability of results (see guidelines below). The TORs when contracting the load studies will specify that the company has to use the same methodology. If the load factor reduces less than 10 percentage points no leakage is included. If the load factor reduces by more than 10 percentage points relative to the measurement before project start (benchmark) then leakage is calculated and included. In this case the amount of leakage is the cumulative sum of all years since the last load factor survey was realized, assuming that the reduction of the load factor occurred immediately since the last survey. This is a conservative approach even if monitoring is not realized annually (to reduce costs). The load factor survey must follow the methodology used by Logitrans, 2003 (see document referenced above). The load factor survey is based on a “Visual Occupation Study”. The visual occupation method provides an estimation of the number of passengers inside a bus without actually counting them, by comparing the level of occupation exhibited by the bus with a given table previously determined in terms of fractions of the vehicle capacity. Core features to be followed in the load factor study are (see Logitrans study referenced): 1. 6 occupation categories are defined: A: nearly empty, B: some seated passengers; C: All passengers seated, D: some passengers standing, E: bus is full, F: passengers in front of registration (overloaded) 2. The number of passengers corresponding to each vehicle category and type of service is defined. 3. Formats for field study are prepared 4. Field data collectors are trained 5. Locations, days and times for field study are defined. Points are strategically located to cover all the routes with the minimum of points. Suggested days are Tuesday to Thursday, avoiding days immediately after or before a holiday. Atypical seasons (school or university vacations) should be avoided. 6. Data for the master stations should cover the period from 5.00AM to 23.00PM 7. Field data is collected. Coverage of the occupation counts should be higher than 95% of the number of buses that cross the check point. 100% coverage is desired. To control this outcome a separate vehicle count is advised. Data can be adjusted with the actual count. 8. Data is digitized and its quality is controlled. In case of mistakes in data collection counts should be repeated. 9. The total number of vehicles, number of available spaces (vehicle capacity) and the total number of passengers is reported. 10. Occupation is the number of passengers divided by the vehicle capacity. 11. The average load factor is equal to the average load factor of each route multiplied by the total number of passengers in the route, divided by the total passengers in the network.

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A.3.7. Leakage due to Changing Load Factor of Taxis Formula (A12):

⎛ OCT , y LE LF ,T , y = EFKM ,T , y × VDT × N T , y × ⎜⎜1 − ⎝ OCT ,0 Where: LELF,T,y EFKM,T, y VDT NT,y OCT,y OCT,0

⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠

Emissions leakage from change of load factor in taxis baseline in year “y” Emissions per kilometer of taxis baseline for the year “y” Distance driven per taxi on average baseline before project starts Number of taxis operating in year “y” Average occupancy rate of taxi for the year “y” (passengers only) Average occupancy rate of taxi before project start (passengers only)

note: If OCT,0 - OCT,y ≤ 0.1 then LELF,T,y = 0 Only circulating taxis are counted. Taxis without passenger are counted as “0” occupancy rate. Formula (A13):

VDT = Where: VDT TT TDT D NT

TT × TDT × D NT Distance driven per taxi on average baseline before project starts Trips per day for all taxis before project starts Average distance pr trip before projects starts number of working days of taxis (303; set equivalent to TransMilenio) Number of taxis operating before project starts

Table A.3.7.1. Data Used for Leakage Change of Load Factor Taxis Abbreviation Description Value Unit Source OCT,0 Average occupancy passen0.8193 STT 2002, rate taxis before progers OFICIO-STject start 07-04-7541-05 TT TDT NT

Trips per day taxis Average distance per trip taxis Number of taxis

982,224 7

Trips Kilometer

STT, 2003 STT, 2003

36,579

Taxis

Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2004

Comments Data before start phase II of TransMilenio (2003)

93

Based on data from the percentage of occupied taxies STT of the year 2002 (54%) used in a study realized by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia (“Evaluación y Caracterización del parque automotor de transporte público individual y colectivo en Bogotá D.C y confrontación con la flota necesaria para satisfacer la demanda actual de viajes en este modo, Martha Patricia Ibáñez Pérez –Trabajo de grado – Especialización en transporte – 2004”) multiplied with the average number of passengers per trip estimated in JICA 1996 (1.5 passengers).

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Results

VDT =

982,224 × 7 × 303 = 56,953km 36,579

Details of Load Factor Study Taxis The actual number of passengers excluding the driver of taxis is counted in a given point within a given time period. The counting is based on visual occupation. The driver is not counted. If the load factor reduces less than 0.1 points no leakage is included. If the load factor reduces by more than 0.1 points relative to the measurement before project start (benchmark) then leakage is calculated and included. In this case the amount of leakage is the cumulative sum of all years since the last load factor survey was realized, assuming that the reduction of the load factor occurred immediately since the last survey. This is a conservative approach even if monitoring is not realized annually (to reduce costs). Procedures to establish visual occupation: 1. Locations, days and times for field study are defined. Suggested days are Tuesday to Thursday, avoiding days immediately after or before a holiday. Atypical seasons (school or university vacations) should be avoided. Locations used in the former study are outside bus stations. Equivalent locations should be taken. 2. Field data is collected. Coverage of the occupation counts should be higher than 95% of the number of taxis that cross the check point. 100% coverage is desired. To control this outcome a separate vehicle count is advised. Data can be adjusted with the actual count. 3. Data is digitized and its quality is controlled. In case of mistakes in data collection counts should be repeated. 4. Occupation is the number of passengers using the taxi. The driver is not counted. Taxis without passengers are counted as 0 occupation. Categories of occupation are 1,2,3 and 4 or more passengers. 5. The total number of taxis and the total number of passengers is reported. The average occupation rate of taxis is the total number of passengers divided by the total number of taxis in which counts were performed. 6. The study is realized in different locations of the city during minimum 5 days. The times used in the cited study are the morning peak hours. The same hours should be used in future studies. 7. Important clarification: The data of STT (also used by the Universidad Nacional) only refers to “occupied” or “not-occupied” taxis. This does not reflect the number of passengers per taxi (load factor). The value of the above mentioned study for this effect has been multiplied by the factor 1.5. This is the average number of passengers per occupied taxi registered by JICA.

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A.3.8. Leakage Emissions due to Reduced Congestion (rebound effect and vehicle speed change) Formula (A14)

LE CONG , y = LETRIPS , y + LE SP , y where: LECONG,y LETRIPS,y LESP,y

Emissions leakage from reduced congestion in year “y” Emissions leakage from additional and/or longer trips in year “y” Emissions leakage from change in vehicle speed in year “y”

LECONG is calculated ex-ante and fixed for the crediting period. Formula (A15)

LETRIPS , y = ITR × ARS y × TDC × EFKM ,C × TRC × D where: LETRIPS,y ITR ARSy TRC TDC EFKM,C D

Emission leakage from additional and/or longer trips in the year “y” Elasticity factor additional and/or longer trips: the factor is set at 0.1 Additional road space available (in percentage) in the year “y” Number of daily trips realized by passenger cars baseline Average trip distance for passenger cars Emission factor per distance of passenger cars before project start number of days buses operate per year (303 days, constant number for all crediting years94)

Formula (A16)

ARS y = where: ARSy BSCRw NZ SRS RSB RSPy

⎤ RSB − RSPy ⎡ BSCRw × SRS ⎥ − ⎢ RSB NZ w=1... y ⎣ ⎦

∑

Additional road space available (in percentage) in the year “y” Bus units scrapped by project in the year “w” where “w” = 1 to “y” (cumulative) Number of buses in use in baseline Share of road space used by public transport in the baseline (in percentage) Total road space available in the baseline Total available road space in the project project in the year “y” (= RSB minus kilometre of lanes that were reduced due to dedicated bus lanes)

Formula (A17)

RSR = RSB − RSP Where: RSR Road space reduced by project RSB Total road space available in the baseline RSP Total available road space in the project Formula (A18) 94

Based on operational days of TransMilenio which is considered as identical to conventional bus services

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[

]

LE SP , y = TRC × TDC × EFKM ,VPJ ,C , y − EFKM ,VBL ,C × DW where: LESP,y TRC TDC EFKM,VPJ,C,y EFKM,VBL,C DW

Emission leakage from change in vehicle speed in the year “y” Number of daily trips realized by passenger cars baseline Average trip distance driven by passenger cars Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars at project speed in the year “y” Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars at baseline speed number of days per year (taken as constant 365 for all years of the crediting period)

The vehicle speed project is calculated based on the additional road space available for passenger cars. Formula (A19)

EFKM ,V ,C = 135.44 − 2.314 × V + 0.0144 × V 2 Where: EFKM,V,C V

Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars traveling at speed V (VBL speed baseline; VPJ speed project) Vehicle speed; calculated both for the project speed (VPJ) and the baseline speed baseline (VBL); VPJ is calculated annually

Table A.3.8.1. Data Used for Leakage due to Reduced Congestion Abbreviation Description Value Unit Source ITR Elasticity factor due 0.1 None Litman T., 2004 to less congestion (rebound effect) BSCR

See below

Buses

TransMilenio

26,508

Buses

STT, Logitrans, Table 4, 2004

Share of road space used by public transport Road space baseline Road spaced reduced by project

27%

Percentage

CEPAL, 2002

1,310 See below

Kilometers Kilometers

STT, 2003 IDU, 2005

TRC

Number of daily trips realized by passenger cars

1,592,169

Trips

TDC

Average trip distance passenger cars

9

Kilometers

Steer Davies Gleave, 1999, Vol 1, chapter 4, table 4.1. Steer Davies Gleave, 2005 and STT 2005

NZ

SRS RSB RSR

Buses scrapped by project (cumulative) Number of buses baseline

Comments Based on default value in baseline methodology Appendix A, leakage parameters, number 5 See Table A.3.3.2. Data until 2003 i.e. before phase II entered into operation (total matriculated fleet) Based on Steers Davies Gleave, 2000 2 lanes always Kilometers are trunk roads and not lanes (based on 2 lanes; equal to RSB)95 Before start of phase II

Based on trip duration and speed of passenger cars of 2002 i.e. before project was operational;

95

E.g. Americas has 4 lanes, while NQS has 2 lanes. The distance of the lanes is thus not equivalent to the distance of trunk routes as latter are counted independent of the number of lanes

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This value is monitored annually EFKMC VBL

See A.3.10 Average speed cars baseline

VPJ

Average speed cars project

33

km/h

STT, 2004

See below

km/h

Authors calculation

Data for the year 2003; before operation of phase II but after implementation of driving restrictions

Calculation of VPJ Assumptions: 1. The vehicle speed is in relation to the number of vehicles circulating respectively road space used. 2. The relative change of speed observed before and after the introduction of vehicle drive restrictions is put into relation with the additional road space available. The same factor is thereafter used to project the vehicle speed with the project. Steps: 1. Vehicle speed before introduction of driving restrictions “pico y placa” (2001) V2001 = 26.9 km/h (source STT, 2005, based on measurements in the year 2001 in 18 roads before introduction of “pico y placa”) 2. Vehicle speed after introducing driving restrictions (average 2003) V2003 = 32.7 km/h (source STT, 2005) 3. Road space used by passenger cars SRSC: 64% (source CEPAL, 2002) 4. Driving restrictions DR = 40% (4 license plates per day; source STT) 5. Percentage of buses retired (buses scrapped/total buses) BR calculated annually 6. Road space used by buses SRS: 27% Formula to calculate VPJ: Formula (A20)

V PJ , y = VBL + Where: VPJ,y VBL V2003 V2001 SRSC SRS BSCRy Nz

BSCR y V2003 − V2001 × SRS c × DR N z × SRS

Vehicle speed project in the year “y” Vehicle speed baseline Vehicle speed in the year 2003 after introducing driving restrictions (see above) Vehicle speed in the year 200 before introducing driving restrictions (see above) share of road space used by passenger cars baseline (see above) share of road space used by buses baseline Buses scrapped by project in the year “y” (cumulative) Number of buses baseline

Results (values expressed as results are always based on exact values – differences to data in tables are based on rounding):

Table A.3.8.2. Results 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

total

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Road space quit cumulative (km) Units scrapped cumulative ARS (%) VPJ (km/h) Leakage rebound effect in tCO2eq Leakage speed effect in tCO2eq Total leakage effect congestion tCO2eq

8 2,542 2.0% 2,355 33.3 -4,184 -1,829

21 3,592 2.1% 2,447 33.5 -5,898 -3,451

26 6,140 4.3% 5,081 34.1 -10,018 -4,937

26 8,251 6.4% 7,640 34.6 -13,392 -5,752

26 8,251 6.4% 7,640 34.6 -13,392 -5,752

26 9,441 7.6% 9,083 34.9 -15,279 -6,196

26 9,441 7.6% 9,083 34.9 -15,279 -6,196

43,328 -77,441 -34,113

Total in 7 years: - 34,113 tCO2eq

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A.3.9. Total Leakage Emissions Table A.3.9.1. Results Leakage upstream in tCO2eq Leakage load factor in tCO2eq Leakage congestion in tCO2eq Total leakage in tCO2eq

2006 5,652

2007 6,296

2008 4,220

2009 2,661

2010 6,597

2011 6,717

2012 10,717

total 42,861

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1,829 3,823

-3,451 2,845

-4,937 0

-5,752 0

-5,752 845

-6,196 521

-6,196 4,521

-34,113 12,555

In years with negative leakage the total is set at “0” to not account for negative leakage (this is the case in years 2008 and 2009). Total in 7 years: 12,555 tCO2eq

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A.3.10. Baseline Emissions Passenger Cars and Taxis Formula (A21)

EFP ,i , y = EFP ,i × IRi ,t × CDi , y Where: EFP,i,y EFP,i CDi IRi,t t

Baseline emission factor per passenger transported in vehicle category “i” in year “y” Baseline emission factor per passenger per category “i” before project start Correction factor for changing trip distance in category “i” for the year “y”, where “i” includes C (passenger cars) and T (taxis) Technology improvement factor per vehicle category “i” for the year “t” age in years of fuel consumption data used for calculating the emission factor in year “y”

Formula (A22)

EFP ,i = Where: EFP,Z EFKM,I TDi OCi

EFKM ,i × TDi OC i Emission factor per passenger transported before project start for vehicle category “i”, where “i” includes T (taxis), C ( passenger cars) Emission per kilometer of category “i” Average trip distance for vehicle category “i” Average vehicle occupancy rate of vehicle category “i”96

Formula (A23) ⎡ ⎛ N x ,i EFKM ,i = ∑ ⎢ SEC x ,i × (EFCO 2, x + EFCH 4, x + EFN 2O , x ) × ⎜⎜ x ⎢ ⎝ Ni ⎣

where: EFKM,i SECx,i EFCO2,x EFCH4,x EFN2O,x Ni Nx,i

⎞⎤ ⎟⎟⎥ ⎠⎥⎦

Emissions factor per kilometer driven of vehicle category “i” Specific energy consumption of fuel type “x” in vehicle category “i” CO2 emission factor for fuel type “x” CH4 emission factor for fuel type “x”(based on GWP) N2O emission factor for fuel type “x”(based on GWP) Total number of vehicles in category “i” Number of vehicles in vehicle category “i” using fuel “x”

Passenger cars: Only gasoline cars are included as they constitute more than 99% of fuel consumed by passenger cars. Diesel as well as gas consumption is well below 1% of fuel consumed.97 Taxis: Only gasoline is included as diesel constitutes only 2% of total fuel consumed and CNG less than 5%.98 According to vehicle registries of STT 98% of taxis are based on gasoline, 1.9% are diesel and the

96

In the case of taxis the taxi driver is not counted and only passengers are included in the occupancy rate

97

Source: Unidad de Planeación Minero Energético, Ministry of Mines and Energy, Determinación del Mercado real de Combustibles, 2004

98

Source: see former footnote

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rest gas99. The difference between the two sources concerning gas fuelled vehicles is probably due to illegal conversions. Table A.3.10.1. Data Used for Calculation Passenger Cars and Taxis Abbreviation Description Value Unit Source SECC,T Specific fuel con0.117 l/km Arpel, 2005, sumption passenger Measurement of cars and taxis (gasoIn-Service Veline) hicle Emissions in Sao Paulo, Santiago and Buenos Aires

EFC,T,CO2

EFC,T,CH4

EFC,T,N2O

TDC

TDT OCC

OCT

99

Emission factor CO2 passenger cars and taxis per liter of gasoline Emission factor CH4 passenger cars and taxis per liter of gasoline Emission factor N2O passenger cars and taxis per liter of gasoline Average trip distance passenger cars

Average trip distance taxis Occupancy rate passenger cars

Occupancy rate taxis

Comments Vintage 2005; see arguments chapter E.4. 2.1. why this value is considered as conservative; original data was taken from the report including only gasoline fuelled vehicles in the three cities; the value taken is the average mean of the average means of each city; emissions reported in gr. CO2 were converted to liters gasoline based on EFCO2 Default value; see baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.1.

2,313

gr CO2eq/l

IPCC

11

gr CO2eq/l

IPCC

Default value; see baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.1.

14

gr CO2eq/l

IPCC

Default value; see baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.1.

9

Kilometers

Steer Davies Gleave, 2005 and STT 2005

7

Kilometers

STT, 2003

1.37

Persons

Steer Davies Gleave, 1999

0.81

Passengers

STT, OFICIOST-07-04-754105 for % of taxis occupied and JICA,1996 for average number of passengers per

Based on trip duration and speed of passenger cars of 2002 i.e. before project was operational; This value is monitored annually This value is monitored annually Based on total trips (2,175,132) and trips with only driver (1,592,169); data is conservative as over time downward trend is normal Based on 54% taxis occupied with an average of 1.5 passengers; data 2002 (before start of phase II); occupancy rate taxis is monitored by project

Source: STT 7/2004

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IRC

Technology improvement factor taxis and passenger cars

1%

percent

taxis International literature

Default value; see baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.2.

The specific fuel consumption passenger cars or taxis with diesel engine is 0.108 l/km (same data source as SECgasoline). The emission factors for diesel are (gr CO2eq /l)100: ¾ EFC,T,CO2 : 2,661 ¾ EFC,T,CH4 : 1 ¾ EFC,T,N2O :23 Based on above data the GHG emissions per kilometer for passenger cars or taxis are (in grCO2eq/km): ¾ Gasoline vehicles: 274 ¾ Diesel vehicles: 290 GHG emissions of diesel cars are thus higher than those of gasoline powered ones in the case of Bogotá. If a shift occurs from gasoline to diesel passenger cars during the crediting period (as monitored by the annual survey of TransMilenio passengers) this would increase baseline emissions. The methodology however only makes changes if baseline emissions get lower (see baseline methodology 4.2. applicability condition). Therefore and to remain conservative shifts from gasoline to diesel in passenger cars will not be reported as a change in the emission factors of passenger cars used for calculating baseline emissions. Results Table A.3.10.2. Results Emissions per passenger cars (grCO2eq/passenger) Emissions per passenger taxis (grCO2eq/passenger)

100

2006 1,783

2007 1,765

2008 1,748

2009 1,730

2010 1,713

2011 1,696

2012 1,679

2,345

2,322

2,299

2,276

2,253

2,230

2,208

Default values based on baseline methodology Appendix A table A.1.

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A.3.11. Baseline Emissions Buses Formula (A24)

EFP , Z , y = EFP , Z × IRZ ,t Where: EFP,Z,y EFP,Z IRZ,t t

Baseline emission factor per passenger transported in buses in year “y” Baseline emission factor per passenger buses before project start Technology improvement factor buses for the year “t” age in years of fuel consumption data used for calculating the emission factor in year “y”

Formula (A25)

EFP , Z = Where: EFP,Z EFKM,ZS DDZS EFKM,ZM DDZM EFKM,ZL DDZS PZ

EFKM , ZS × DDZS + EFKM , ZM × DDZM + EFKM , ZL × DDZL PZ Emission factor per passenger transported buses baseline (before project start) Emissions per kilometer small buses Total distance driven (kilometer) by small buses Emissions per kilometer medium buses Total distance driven (kilometer) by medium buses Emissions per kilometer large buses Total distance driven (kilometer) by large buses Passengers transported by buses in the baseline

Formula (A26) ⎡ ⎛ N x ,i EFKM ,i = ∑ ⎢ SEC x ,i × (EFCO 2, x + EFCH 4, x + EFN 2O , x ) × ⎜⎜ x ⎣ ⎢ ⎝ Ni

where: EFKM,i SECx,i EFCO2,x EFCH4,x EFN2O,x Ni Nx,i

⎞⎤ ⎟⎟⎥ ⎠⎦⎥

Emissions factor per kilometer driven of vehicle category “i” Specific energy consumption of fuel type “x” in vehicle category “i” CO2 emission factor for fuel type “x” CH4 emission factor for fuel type “x”(based on GWP) N2O emission factor for fuel type “x”(based on GWP) Total number of vehicles in category “i” Number of vehicles in vehicle category “i” using fuel “x”

Public buses: A differentiation is made between small, medium sized and large buses101. For all subcategories diesel as well as gasoline buses are included. Less than 1% of all buses use CNG or LPG. Thus only diesel and gasoline is included as fuel for buses. However less than 10% of all buses use gasoline. The main fuel used is thus clearly diesel.

Table A.3.11.1. Data Used for Calculation Buses Baseline

101

Small < 20 passengers; medium 20-50 and large > 50 passengers

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Abbreviation SECD,ZL

Description Fuel efficiency large bus with diesel engine

Value 0.455

Unit l/km

Source STT and IPCC

SECD,ZM

Fuel efficiency medium bus with diesel engine

0.315

l/km

STT and IPCC

SECD,ZS

Fuel efficiency small bus with diesel engine

0.175

l/km

STT and IPCC

SECG,ZL

Fuel efficiency large bus with gasoline engine

0.435

l/km

STT and IPCC

SECG,ZM

Fuel efficiency medium bus with gasoline engine

0.435

l/km

STT and IPCC

SECG,ZS

Fuel efficiency small bus with gasoline engine

0.250

l/km

STT and IPCC

NZ

Number of large buses

10,279

units

STT, 2003

NM

Number of medium buses

8,696

units

STT, 2003

NS

Number of small buses

7,533

units

STT, 2003

SDZ

Share of diesel in large buses Share of diesel in medium buses Share of diesel in small buses Distance driven large buses annually

99%

percentage

96%

percentage

81%

percentage

622

million kilometers

UPME, 2005, Table 4.10 UPME, 2005, Table 4.10 UPME, 2005, Table 4.10 STT, 2005

DDZM

Distance driven medium buses annually

520

million kilometers

STT, 2005

DDZS

Distance driven small buses annually

447

million kilometers

STT, 2005

PZ

Passengers transported annually by buses baseline Technology improvement factor buses

1,533

Million passengers

Logitrans, STT, 2003

1%

percent

International literature

SDM SDS DDZL

IRZ

Comments IPCC factors according to vehicle age and technology in 2006; see below IPCC factors according to vehicle age and technology in 2006; see below IPCC factors according to vehicle age and technology in 2006; see below IPCC factors according to vehicle age and technology in 2006; see below IPCC factors according to vehicle age and technology in 2006; see below IPCC factors according to vehicle age and technology in 2006; see below Based on data 2002 before operational start of project Based on data 2002 before operational start of project Based on data 2002 before operational start of project Based on sectoral fuel consumption (bus) Based on sectoral fuel consumption (buseta) Based on sectoral fuel consumption (colectivo) Based on average distance per bus and number of buses 2002 Based on average distance per bus and number of buses 2002 Based on average distance per bus and number of buses 2002 Based on data 2002 equal to distance driven Default value; see baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.2.

Fuel efficiency buses This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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1997 Colombia started using injected gasoline engines. This is also due to the fuel specifications. Since less than 10 years unleaded fuel is widely available and sulphur in diesel was until the year 2000 at around 3’000 ppm per liter. Even today sulphur contents remains high with values over 2’000ppm for normal diesel fuel thus not allowing the introduction of new diesel technologies. Vehicles vintage mid nineties or older thus in general do not correspond technologically seen to the same vintage in the US, Europe or Japan but to a much older vehicle technology. Vehicles before 1995 are thus considered in the case of gasoline vehicles without emission control devices (catalytic converter) and in the case of diesel engines uncontrolled ones102. Due to high altitude of Bogotá the IPCC fuel consumption values are considered as a very conservative estimate. Large buses • Average vintage large buses in 2002/03 (before operational start of Phase II)103: 1991104 • Most common model type: Chevrolet and Dodge with a market participation of 73.2% • Based on model type and vintage: o Gasoline engine: HDV “non-catalyst control” with a fuel consumption of 43.5l/100km; This category is appropriate as Colombia only started using unleaded fuel in 1997 thus not allowing for the average model year (see above) to be catalyst-controlled. The IPCC category for HDV gasoline includes basically large pick-ups and vans which are far lighter than large buses with gross vehicle weights of up to 20 tons. The value taken is thus very conservative and most probably significantly below the real consumption levels. For 2006 the starting point is thus 43.5l/100km for large buses gasoline o Diesel engine: HDV “uncontrolled” with a fuel consumption of 45.5 l/100km; This category is appropriate as Colombia was using until the year 2000 a diesel with a very high sulphur contents not allowing for emission control technologies. For 2006 the starting point is thus 45.5l/100km for large buses diesel. Based on the average vintage of large buses (1991) and the default technical improvement factor (1% per year) a large diesel bus vintage 2006 would have a fuel consumption of 39 l/100km. This is nearly exactly the same as the average value of new large buses recorded by TransMilenio which however operate in much more regular driving conditions due to the new transport system. This is a clear indication of the conservativeness of the fuel consumption level chosen. Medium buses • Average age medium sized buses in 2002/03105: 1983106 • Most common model type: Chevrolet and Dodge with a market participation of 90.7% • Based on model type and vintage: o Gasoline engine: HDV “non-catalyst control US” with a fuel consumption of 43.5l/100km; This category in IPCC includes basically large pick-ups and vans with a gross weight of less than 8 tons107 and thus less than medium buses. This category is appropriate as Colombia only started using unleaded fuel in 1997 thus not allowing for the average model year (see above) to be catalyst-controlled. The starting point is thus 43.5 l/100km as the starting point for medium buses gasoline in 2006.

102

Source: Departamento Técnico Administrativo del Medio Ambiente DAMA, Revisión y Ajuste de Emisiones por Fuentes Móviles en la Ciudad de Bogotá, 2004 103

Buses, buses ejecutivos y buses superejecutivos

104

average age 12 years i.e. average model year in 2006 is 1994

105

buseta

106

average age 20 years i.e. average model year in 2006 is 1986

107

IPCC, 1.69

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o

Diesel engine: HDV “uncontrolled” with a fuel consumption of 45.5 l/100km and LDV “uncontrolled” with a fuel economy of 17.5 l/100km. This category is appropriate as Colombia was using until the year 2000 a diesel with a very high sulphur contents not allowing for emission control technologies. The average is 31.5 l/100km as the starting point for medium buses diesel in 2006.

Small buses • Average age small buses in 2002/2003108: 1996109 • Most common model type: Chevrolet and Daihatsu with a market participation of 67.1% (of which Chevrolet 46.3% with a growing tendency) • Based on model type and vintage: o Gasoline engine: LDV “non-catalyst controls” with a fuel consumption of 25.0 l/100km; This category is appropriate as Colombia only started using unleaded fuel in 1997 thus not allowing for the average model year (see above) to be catalyst-controlled. For 2006 the starting point is thus 25.0 l/100km for small buses gasoline. o Diesel engine: LDV “uncontrolled” with a fuel economy of 17.5 l/100km. This category is appropriate as Colombia was using until the year 2000 a diesel with a very high sulphur contents not allowing for emission control technologies. For 2006 the starting point is thus 17.5 l/100km for small buses diesel Sources fuel consumption: Age of buses: STT, 2004, based on registered vehicles Model type: STT, 2004 Technology type: DAMA, 2004 Technology identification: IPCC, 1996, Table 1-25 Fuel efficiency according to technology identification: IPCC, 1996, Tables I-28 to I-32 Results Table A.3.11.2. Results Emissions per passenger buses (grCO2eq/passenger)

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

930

921

911

902

893

884

876

108

colectivos

109

average age 7 years i.e. average model year in 2006 is 1999

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A.3.12. Total Baseline Emissions Formula (A27)

BE y = ∑ (EFP ,i , y × PPJ ,i , y ) i

Where: BEy EFP,i,y PPJ,i,y

Baseline CO2eq emissions for the year “y” Baseline emission factor per passenger transported in vehicle category “i” in year “y” Passengers transported by the project in year “y” that without the project activity would have used category “i”, where “i” includes Z (buses, public transport), T (taxis), or C (passenger cars)110

The passengers transported per category “i” are calculated based on the share of passengers per category “i” determined through the sample survey. Table A.3.12.1. Data Used for Calculation Baseline Emissions Abbreviation Description Value Unit SPPJ,Z Share of passengers 88.0% percentage which would have used buses in absence of the project SPPJ,C Share of passengers 5.5% percentage which would have used passenger cars in absence of the project SPPJ,T Share of passengers 5.6% percentage which would have used taxis in absence of the project SPPJ,NMT Share of passengers 0.8% percentage which would have used NMT in absence of the project SPPJ,IT Share of passengers 0.1% percentage which would have not have made the trip in absence of the project (induced traffic) PPJ Passengers transSee below Million ported by the project passengers (TransMilenio Phase II-IV)

110

Source TransMilenio

Comments Based on complete survey realized 3/2006; data is monitored

TransMilenio

Based on complete survey realized 3/2006; data is monitored

TransMilenio

Based on complete survey realized 3/2006; data is monitored

TransMilenio

Based on complete survey realized 3/2006; data is monitored

TransMilenio

Based on complete survey realized 3/2006; data is monitored

TransMilenio, 12-2005

Based on planning forecasts by TransMilenio based on entry of new trunk routes; for 2006 adjustment to forecast based on monitored passengers Jan-May 2006 (lower than forecast due to late entry of buses and some parts of trunk routes)

NMT and IT is not included as emissions are 0 for this category in the baseline

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Table A.3.12.2. Results Baseline Emissions Passengers project in millions Emissions passenger cars tCO2eq Emissions taxis tCO2eq Emissions buses tCO2eq Total baseline emissions in tCO2eq

2006 147 14,405 19,508 120,656

2007 208 20,153 27,292 168,801

2008 356 34,099 46,177 285,609

2009 478 45,365 61,433 379,969

2010 478 44,911 60,819 376,169

2011 547 50,875 68,895 426,120

2012 547 50,366 68,206 421,859

total 2,763 260,176 352,328 2,179,185

154,569

216,246

365,885

486,767

481,900

545,890

540,431

2,791,689

Total in 7 years: 2,791,689 tCO2eq

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A.3.13. Details of Survey to Identify Mode of Transport Such surveys are routinely used in transport systems. The survey is being realized 6 times per year by a professional survey firm. Trials were made since May 2005 and the survey was refined till end 2006. The first full survey was realized March 2006 with a base of 2’500 passengers (far more than required to comply with a 5% error margin). The full survey is available for the validator for review. Basically the survey asks the passengers which mode of transport they would have used in absence of TransMilenio. The categories of transport modes to choose from include public transport (buses), taxis, passenger cars, Non-Motorized Transport (bicycle and pedestrian) and induced traffic (passenger would not have realized the trip in absence of the project). The relative distribution is measured and the absolute numbers are calculated based on total passengers transported. The survey is in accordance with the approved monitoring methodology Appendix B. Following elements are included in the survey design: ¾ The survey is realized with maximum 5% error margin and a 95% confidence interval. ¾ The minimum sampling size is determined by the 95% confidence interval and the 5% error margin. ¾ Sampling is statistically robust and relevant i.e. the survey has a random distribution and is representative of the persons using the BRT system. ¾ The methodology to select persons for interviews is based on a systematic random sampling based on the flow of passengers per station per day per hour i.e. the number of persons to be interviewed randomly per bus station and per hour per day is based on the total flow of passengers per station-dayhour to have a representative sample. ¾ Only persons over age 12 are asked. ¾ The survey is realized minimum 6 times per year ¾ The survey is executed by an external organization with specialized knowledge on survey and survey techniques. ¾ A training of the people conducting the questionnaire was realized by the organization performing latter. The training was based on standard questionnaire techniques and quality assurance. ¾ The survey has been tested and improved since May 2005. ¾ The survey allows for a clear separation of modes of transport which the passenger would have used in absence of the project. ¾ The survey includes control questions to assure a conservative approach ¾ A sensitivity analysis of this factor is carried out (see Annex 3.14). ¾ The relative mode distribution is maintained constant for the year after a policy affecting potentially the modal distribution has been enforced. The emission reductions due to the policy change are thus fully accounted for in the baseline in a conservative manner (100% is attributed to the policy change). ¾ TransMilenio is being implemented gradually. The persons can thus compare the still existing traditional system with the BRT system. ¾ A sensitivity analysis is realized to calculate the impact of lower than baseline trip distances and of changing fuel types in passenger cars The questionnaire used by TransMilenio is included below (translated from Spanish to English):

TRANSMILENIO QUESTIONNAIRE FOR MODAL SPLIT SURVEY Registered are the interviewer, date, place and time. The data is supplied in absolute values to avoid calculation errors and entered into the GHG-Monitoring software to calculate the percentage distribution of modes. Question 1: “Assuming that the bus system you are currently using would not exist: What mode of transport would you have used for this specific trip you are doing currently”. For the interviewer: This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

ƒ ƒ ƒ

The question is related to this specific trip and not to the trips realized by the person during the year in general. To clarify mention that you are comparing TransMilenio with the public transport system existing formerly respectively with the public transport system which still exists in parts of the city not served by TransMilenio Persons which cannot relate it to any mode of transport are taken as induced traffic (conservative default parameter)

Multiple choice answers to question 1: (only tick one; if the passenger would have used more than one transport mode for the trip he is realizing currently then tick the mode which involves the longest distance): 1. conventional bus based public transport (not TransMilenio) 2. private car → please go to 2A 3. taxi → please go to 3A 4. per foot 5. per bicycle 6. I would not have made the trip (induced traffic) Question 2: If the passenger responds with the answer 2 then ask: 2A. Do you or your family own a car or do you have access to a car (e.g. car-sharing) ? a. NO b. YES If the passenger responds with NO this specific questionnaire is deemed as non-consistent and removed from the final counting 2B. What fuel type does the car use to which you have access?

□ gasoline □ diesel □ gas (CNG, LNG or LPG) □

electric

□ I don’t know □

other:……. 2C. What is the starting point of your trip (origin) and which is the final (destination) point? Please name the station our location where you first boarded a bus belonging to TM and where you will make the final stop? For the interviewer: Please advise the passenger that the original departing and final point is required. This may include bus transbording such as first using a feeder line and then a main line. It is thus the origin and final destination of the passengers trip and not of the ride on this specific bus-line. Origin (departing point): …………………………………………………… Destination (final point): …………………………………………………… Question 3: If the passenger responds with the answer 3 then ask: 3A. Have you used in the last 12 months a taxi ? a. NO b. YES If the passenger responds with NO this specific questionnaire is deemed as non-consistent and removed from the final counting 3B. What is the starting point of your trip (origin) and which is the final (destination) point? Please name the station our location where you first boarded a bus belonging to TM and where you will make the final stop? This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

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For the interviewer: Please advise the passenger that the original departing and final point is required. This may include bus transbording such as first using a feeder line and then a main line. It is thus the origin and final destination of the passengers trip and not of the ride on this specific bus-line. Origin (departing point): …………………………………………………… Destination (final point): ……………………………………………………

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A.3.14. Sensitivity Analysis The sensitivity analysis is made with two different approaches: ¾ The impact of a 10% change of the parameter upon Emissions Reductions. ¾ Calculation of the level of change required to reduce ER by 5% With these 2 methods the sensitivity of the result is tested against parameter fluctuations. All calculations are made against the 10-year crediting period. Table A.3.14. Sensitivity Analysis of Paramters Parameter (ID Impact on Impact on number and deER of a 10% ER of a 10% scription) increase of reduction of parameter parameter value value Parameters used to calculate project emissions ID1: fuel con-5% +5% sumption trunk buses ID 1: fuel consumption feeder buses

-1%

+1%

ID 5: passengers +9% -11% transported by TransMilenio Parameter used to calculate baseline emissions ID 6: fuel effi+7% -7% ciency large buses diesel ID 6: fuel effi0% 0% ciency large buses gasoline ID 6: fuel effi+4% -4% ciency medium buses diesel ID 6: fuel efficiency medium buses gasoline ID 6: fuel efficiency small buses diesel ID 6: fuel efficiency small buses gasoline ID 6: fuel efficiency passenger cars and taxis gasoline ID 7: Occupancy rate passenger cars ID 7: Occupancy

% change of parameter value required to reduce ERs by 5%. +10%

comment

-5%

Total fuel consumption is monitored monthly and checked with specific fuel consumption data. Data reliability is thus very high. Result very robust. Total fuel consumption is monitored monthly and checked with specific fuel consumption data. Data reliability is thus very high. See comment below

-7%

See comment below

n.a.

Even with 0 fuel consumption the ER only reduces by 1% due to the very low share of large gasoline buses Result fairly robust. Fuel consumption values used are conservative as Bogotá has strong stop-and-go traffic, high altitude and buses are in a bad maintenance situation. Even with 0 fuel consumption the ER only reduces by 1% due to the very low share of medium gasoline buses Result very robust

+38%

-13%

0%

0%

n.a.

+2%

-2%

-31%

0%

0%

-100%

+3%

-4%

-13%

-1%

+2%

+46%

Result very robust. Even with 0 fuel consumption the ER only reduces by less than 5%. Result robust; data of taxis and passenger cars were changed simultaneously (thus cumulative effect) thus being very conservative; values taken are conservative due to the high altitude and the higher average age of Bogotá compared to the survey Result very robust

-2%

+2%

+30%

Result very robust

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rate taxis ID 8: Average trip +2% -2% distance passenger cars ID 8: Average trip +2% -2% distance taxis ID 10: Distance +7% -7% driven large buses baseline ID 10: Distance +4% -4% driven medium buses baseline ID 10: Distance +2% -2% driven small buses baseline ID 11: Passengers -13% +15% baseline (before project start) ID 13: Share of +1% -1% passengers passenger cars ID 13: Share of +1% -1% passengers taxis ID 13: Share of 0% 0% passengers NMT and induced traffic Parameters used to calculate leakage emissions ID 15: amount of 0% 0% cement used ID 16: longitude 0% 0% of trunk roads ID 17: number of 0% 0% buses scrapped ID 18: average 0% 0% age of buses baseline ID 19: average 0% 0% age of scrapped buses ID 23: share of 0% 0% road space used by public transport ID 24: Road space 0% 0% available baseline ID 24: Road space 0% 0% available project ID 25: Daily trips 0% 0% passenger cars ID 26: average 0% 0% speed passenger cars baseline ID 26: average 0% 0% speed passenger cars project Note:

-32%

Result very robust; additionally this result is monitored annually

-33% -7%

Result very robust; additionally this result is monitored annually See comment below

-12%

Robust result

-24%

Result very robust

+4%

See comment below

-75%

Result very robust and monitored annually

-42%

Result very robust and monitored annually

+500%

Result very robust and monitored annually

+100%

Result very robust

+100%

Result very robust

>+100%

Result very robust; countervailing effects with reduced congestion Result very robust;

>+100% -100% >100%

Result very robust; even if age of 0 is assumed for all scrapped buses ER change less than 5% Result very robust

>100%

Result very robust

>100%

Result very robust

>100%

Result very robust; countervailing trends rebound and speed effect Result very robust; even without speed effect (0 change) ER change less than 5%

>100% >100%

Result very robust; even without speed effect (0 change) ER change less than 5%

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board • • • •

ID 2 is included in ID 1 ID 5: ID 5 includes ID 3 and ID 4 ID 12 = ID 5; ID 21 = ID 7 ID 13: When increasing (reducing) a specific mode of transport the corresponding reduction/increase is compensated with bus passengers • ID 14: policies, cannot be measured directly. • ID 20: Can only be calculated in relation with the new number of buses which again influences the occupation rate. No calculation thus possible at the current stage (it is not feasible to assume the same amount of buses as in the baseline while only reducing the occupation rate) • ID 22: Only relevant in combination with a >10 percentage point decrease of the occupation rate of taxis or buses

Conclusions Following parameters are sensitive to change: • ID 5 (passengers transported by the project): This data is mechanically and electronically recorded and transmitted daily. Data quality level is very high and checked by all involved parties as payments of operators are also dependent on this parameter. Non-paying passengers are not counted by the system. Passengers using only feeder routes are not counted. Data quality is thus very high and the value is conservative. • ID 6 (fuel consumption large buses): The fuel consumption values used are conservative as Bogotá has strong stop-and-go traffic, high altitude and buses are in a bad maintenance situation. All these factors increase in a significant manner fuel consumption. Based on the average vintage of large buses (1991) and the default technical improvement factor (1% per year) a large diesel bus vintage 2006 would have a fuel consumption of 39 l/100km. This is nearly exactly the same as the average value of new large buses recorded by TransMilenio which however operate in much more regular driving conditions and as part of professional transport companies with standard maintenance procedures due to the new transport system. This is a clear indication of the conservativeness of the fuel consumption level chosen. • ID 10: Distance driven large buses. Data is from STT and includes only matriculated buses. A certain quantity of buses are however operating illegal. These are not included. The data on matriculated vehicles is on the other hand is very precise and the distance driven has been verified by an extensive study realized by Logitrans. The parameter value is thus very robust. • ID 11: Passengers baseline: The parameter was measured in an extensive and comprehensive study performed by Logitrans and coincides with other data sources (STT). Data source is equal to distance driven thus making the parameter calculated (passengers per kilometre) robust. General remarks: ¾ The large majority of data is very robust: 2 out of 3 parameters for project emissions are non-sensitive to change. 15 out of 18 parameters required for baseline emission calculations are non-sensitive to change and all leakage parameters are clearly non-sensitive to change. ¾ Modal change data is not sensitive. Combined with the confidence interval of the survey of 95% with an error margin of 5% the data robustness is considered as very good.

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A.3.15. Local Environmental Impact Particle Emissions Formula (A28)

BE PM , y = Where: BEPM,y PPJ,y PZ EFPM,Z DDZ

PPJ , y PZ

× EFPM , Z × DDZ

Baseline Particle Matter emissions for the year “y” Passengers transported by the project in the year “y” Passengers transported by baseline buses Particle emission factor per kilometer driven baseline bus (mixture of large, medium and small bus) Distance driven (kilometer) of all buses baseline

Formula (A28) captures the effect of PM emissions avoided by passengers which use TransMilenio instead of conventional public transport, while formulae (A29) calculates the project PM emissions. Formula (A29)

PE PM , y = EFPM , PJ × (DDTB , y + DDFB , y ) Where: PEPM,y EFPM,PJ DDTB, y DDFB, y

Project Particle Matter emissions for the year “y” Particle emission factor per kilometer driven TransMilenio Total kilometer of trunk buses for the year “y” Total kilometer of feeder buses for the year “y”

Formula (A30)

ERPM , y = BE PM , yi − PE PM , y Where: ERPM,y BEPM,y PEPM,y

Emission reduction Particle Matter for the year “y” Baseline Particle Matter emissions for the year “y” Project Particle Matter emissions for the year “y”

NOx Emissions The same formulae as for PM are used with the corresponding change of the EF SO2 Emissions Calculations are based on the SO2 emissions associated with the fuel consumption of the project versus baseline buses. In the baseline only buses are considered as only diesel related SO2 emissions are considered. This is a conservative but fairly realistic approach as the sulfur contents of diesel is far higher than that of gasoline.

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PE SO 2, y = TC y × DEN D × PESO2,y TCy DEND MMS MMSO2 CSO2 SCD

MM SO 2 × C SO 2 × SC D MM S

Project emissions of sulfur dioxide in the year “y” Total consumption of fuel in liters for project for year “y“ Density Diesel Mol mass sulfur Mol mass sulfur dioxide Conversion rate of Euro 2/3 diesel engines to SO2 Sulfur contents of diesel

Formula (A32)

BE SO 2, y =

BECO 2, Z , y EFCO 2, D ,Z

BESO2,y BECO2,Z,y EFCO2,D,Z DEND MMS MMSO2 CSO2 SCD

× DEN D ×

MM SO 2 × C SO 2 × SC D MM S

Baseline emissions of sulfur dioxide in the year “y” Baseline CO2 emissions of buses in the year “y” CO2 emission factor per liter of fuel baseline buses diesel Density Diesel Mol mass sulfur Mol mass sulfur dioxide Conversion rate of Euro 2/3 diesel engines to SO2 Sulfur contents of diesel

Formula (A33)

ERSO 2, y = BE SO 2, yi − PE SO 2, y Where: ERSO2,y BESO2,y PESO2,y

Emission reduction sulfur dioxide emissions for the year “y” Baseline sulfur dioxide emissions for the year “y” Project sulfur dioxide emissions for the year “y”

Table A.3.15 1. Data Used for Calculation Local Environmental Impact Abbreviation Description Value Unit Source PPJ Passengers transSee Table Million TransMilenio, 12ported by the proA.3.12.1. passengers 2005 ject (TransMilenio Phase II-IV) PZ Passengers transSee Table Million Logitrans, STT, ported by baseline A.3.11.1. passengers 2003 buses DDZ Distance driven See Table million STT, 2005 conventional buses A.3.11.1. kilometers annually EFPM,Z Particle Matter 2.56 gr. PM / Infras, 2002, table emission factor km 21 buses baseline EFPM,PJ

Particle Matter

0.77

gr. PM /

Infras, 2002, table

Comments

Based on EMOD/CMAD model for urban bus 80s diesel Based on Euro 2 taking

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emission factor TransMilenio buses

km

24

EFNOx,Z

NOx emission factor buses baseline

22.0

gr. NOx/ km

Infras, 2002, table 21

EFNOx,PJ

NOx emission factor TransMilenio buses

13.2

gr. NOx/ km

Infras, 2002, table 24

DDTB

Distance driven trunk buses TM Distance driven feeder buses TM Fuel consumed project Density diesel Mol mass sulfur Mol mass sulfur dioxide SO2 conversion factor of diesel engines

See table A.3.1.2. See table A.3.1.2. See table A.3.1.2. 0.84 32 64

km

TransMilenio, 2005

km

TransMilenio, 2005

liters

TransMilenio, 2005

kg/l Kg/kmol Kg/kmol

BUWAL Chemical tables Chemical tables

98%

percent

Oral communication T. Bürki, ETHZ

SCD

Sulfur contents of diesel

1,200

ppm

Resolucion 1180, 21.6.2006 del Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y DesarrolloTerritorial y Ministerio de Minas y Energia

BECO2,Z,y

Baseline CO2 emissions of baseline buses in the year “y” CO2 emission factor per liter of fuel baseline buses diesel

See table A.3.12.2

Tons

2,713

grCO2eq/l

DDFB TCy DEND MMS MMSO2 CSO2

EFCO2,D,Z

Default value; see baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.2.

a correction factor versus baseline buses; conservative as more than 50% of buses will be Euro 3 Based on EMOD/CMAD model for urban bus 80s diesel Based on Euro 2 taking a correction factor versus baseline buses; conservative as more than 50% of buses will be Euro 3

For diesel engines without particle trap or catalyst Diesel used currently in Bogota (ACEM)

Value of small buses taken (highest value of diesel buses and thus conservative as this reduces baseline SO2 emissions)

Table A.3.15.2. Results PM emission project in tons PM emissions baseline in tons PM emission reductions in tons NOX emissions project in tons NOX emissions baseline in tons NOX emissions reductions in tons SO2 project emissions in tons

2006 30 391 362 509 3,362

2007 42 553 511 719 4,751

2008 72 945 873 1,229 8,120

2009 96 1,270 1,174 1,651 10,912

2010 96 1,270 1,174 1,651 10,912

2011 110 1,453 1,343 1,890 12,486

2012 110 1,453 1,343 1,890 12,486

total 555 7,334 6,779 9,539 63,028

2,853 41

4,032 58

6,891 100

9,260 134

9,260 134

10,596 154

10,596 154

53,489 775

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

SO2 emissions baseline in tons SO2 emission reductions in tons

88 47

123 64

208 108

277 142

274 140

310 157

307 154

1,587 812

Total PM emission reductions in 7 years: 6,779 tons Total NOx emission reductions in 7 years: 53,489 tons Total SO2 emission reductions in 7 years: 812 tons

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

A.3.16. Literature Used Arpel, Measurement of In-Service Vehicles Emissions in Sao Paulo, Santiago and Buenos Aires, 7-2005 Conpes 3093, Sistema de Servicio Publico Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogota, 15.11.2000 DAMA/Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Revisión y Ajuste de la Norma de Emisiones por Fuentes Móviles en la Ciudad de Bogotá, 2004 Gomez A, La Olla a Presion del Transporte Publico en Bogota, Revista de Ingenieria 21, 5.2005 GTZ, Bus Rapid Transit, version 2.0, 2005 Hidalgo D, TransMilenio: Un Sistema de Transporte Masivo en Buses de Alta Capacidad y Bajo Costo para Bogota, Colombia, 2003 Hidalgo D, Comparación de Alternativas de Transporte Público Masivo – Una Aproximación Conceptual, in Revista de Ingeniería 21, 5-2005 Infras, Pisa Lima/Callao: EMOD/CMAP Assumptions and Results, 2002 IPCC, Revised IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories: Reference Manual Logitrans, Contrato PNUD COL/01/23, Analisis de Corredores, 2003/4 Logitrans, Parte III- Analisis de Solicitudes de la Comunidad, 2003/4 Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Dearrollo Territorial, Decreto 1220, 21.4.2005 Steer Davis Gleave, Diseno Operacional Proyecto TransMilenio, 1999 Steer Davis Gleave, Estudio sobre Estimacion de Usuarios de Transporte Privado a ser Desplazados por el Sistema TransMilenio, 2002 Steer Davis Gleave, Estudio para la Reformulacion del Plan Vial de Transporte y de Espacio Publico Peatonal del Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial de Bogota, Producto 2, 2005 Tribunal Administrativo de Cundinamarca, Exp. 25000-23-24-000-2003-00224-01, 26.5.2005 Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Perez M.P., Evaluacion y Caracterizacion del parque automotor de transporte publico individual y colectivo en Bogota D.C. y confrontacion con la flota necesaria para satisfacer la demanda actual de viajes en este modo, 2004 UPME, Determinacion del Mercado Real de Gasolina, ACPM y GNV en las Areas Metropolitanas de Bogota y Bucaramanga y los Municipios de Mosquera y Funza, 2004 World Bank, NSS for Implementation of the CDM in Colombia, 2000 World Bank, Report 24941-CO, PAD on a Proposed Loan in the Amount of USD 100 Million to the Capital District of Bogota, 2003 This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

World Bank, PCF Plus, Estimating the Market Potential for the CDM: Review of Models and Lessons Learned, 2004

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PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

Annex 4 MONITORING PLAN The monitoring plan has two aims: to ensure the environmental integrity of the project activity and to ensure that the data monitoring requirements are closely aligned with the current practice of the project operator. The monitoring methodology has ex-ante determined emission factors per passenger transported for all modes of transport. The total baseline emissions are derived by applying to these emission factors the activity level (passengers per mode transported) of the project. The methodology thus focuses on the emissions per passenger of different modes of transport in absence of the project. All data used to calculate these values are thus monitored ex-ante. For calculating the total baseline emissions and the emission reductions the number of passengers using the project and the traffic mode they would have used in absence of the new transport system is monitored (public transport, taxis, passenger cars, Non-Motorized Transport and induced traffic). The monitoring methodology for the project is based on measuring the total emissions of the new transport system. From a methodological viewpoint data is basically derived from measurements. The monitoring methodology for leakage depends basically on elements calculated ex-ante project based on pre-established factors and on measurements during project execution (for reduced life-span and load factor). Data is derived basically from planning/modelling sources, fixed parameters derived from the international literature and from periodic surveys. A special unit is in charge of managing all data in relation to the CDM project including responsibility for data collection, quality assurance, reports and data storage. The area in charge of the CDM project is the “environment area” inside the operations department. The unit is under direct supervision of the CEO of TransMilenio S.A. TransMilenio S.A. is ISO 9000 certified and has thus in place recognized QA procedures. QA and QC is assured by a special monitoring software containing inter alia how to proceed with key measurements and survey, how to screen data for quality and how to handle potential errors. Staff in charge has been trained. The software elaborated for monitoring includes: ¾ Baseline, leakage and project default data ¾ All data required to be monitored ¾ Identification of person entering data ¾ Track record of all changes ¾ Statistical check of data ¾ Automatic calculations of data based on PDD formulas ¾ Calculation of local environmental impact A (Spanish) monitoring manual has been realized for TransMilenio and staff has been familiarized with this manual in a special training course realized mid 2006. The Manual defines responsibilities and procedures, has a section on all data variables to be monitored, includes monitoring report formats as well as the Spanish formats of the modal split survey, the load factor taxi and the load factor buses surveys. The data section has for each data variable information on how to collect the required information, the frequency of collection, data units (including transformation of common data units), quality control measures to be realized, steps to be taken in case of data problems, how to enter data in the monitoring software (step by step guide) and some additional hints and comments. The monitoring manual can be reviewed by the validator. Training of the responsible staff was performed end 2005 and mid 2006. The staff receives back-up support by grütter consulting during the first two years of the crediting period including a check of all data, This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.

PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02 CDM – Executive Board

software updates and quality assurance. Results are discussed with the staff responsible. The propriety software is available for the DOE for validation purposes.

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