Applied Predictive Analysis David Attaway, Esri Brooks Jonathan Breece, NGA/Office of Sciences and Methodologies
Overview Predictive Analysis Tools •
ArcGIS Desktop Addin --- FREE -
http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.ht ml?id=91c9fce0d3d5487fac1c71f44e7 2dca4
OR -
Contact Esri through Email -
•
[email protected] for questions about getting/installing/using tools.
Set of tools for… -
Raster-based querying
-
Mobility and proximity data creation
-
Temporal analysis
Agenda: •
•
What are the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Tools (PA Tools)? -
Overview
-
Functionality / Demo
Versatility / Architecture of PA Tools -
•
Story map Examples
Web Based Predictive Analysis Tools -
Overview
-
Functionality / Demo
•
Questions and Answers
•
Closing
ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Tools What are they?
The Predictive Analysis tools are a suite of tools to help analysts get ahead of rather than reacting to a problem. The tools are designed to leverage and expand upon existing Esri out-of-the-box capabilities and expose complex analysis workflows in an intuitive way.
Capabilities Predictive Analysis Tools
•
Predict suitable locations, and travel routes
•
Extremely fast to accommodate iterative analysis
•
Auto-generate analysis based on historic data
•
Repeatable and shareable workflows
•
Easy to use
Versatility Predictive Analysis Tools Defense and Intel
Finding Enemy Targets
Medical Geography & Health
Homeland Security Landscape Architecture
Stopping Smugglers Sustainability
Law Enforcement
Fighting Drug Production
GeoDesign
Environmental Management
Urban Planning
Susceptibility
Weather
Modeling / Forecasting Preservation
Use Cases…
Predictive Analysis Framework What are we predicting? •
Site Selection
•
Mobility Modeling
•
Route Analysis
•
Temporal Pattern Analysis
Predictive Analysis Framework What are we predicting? •
Site Selection -
Where are possible sites?
-
Where are similar sites?
-
Why is/isn’t a site suitable?
•
Mobility Modeling
•
Route Analysis
•
Temporal Pattern Analysis
Panga Dengue Counter Zika BoatVirus Interdiction Fever Drug
Predictive Analysis Framework What are we predicting? •
Site Selection
•
Mobility Modeling -
How are the rules of movement for an entity defined?
-
Where can/can’t an entity go?
-
How far away is an entity from something? (Distance or Time)
•
Route Analysis
•
Temporal Pattern Analysis
Travel Drive-time Corridor Analysis Analysis
Predictive Analysis Framework What are we predicting? •
Site Selection
•
Mobility Modeling
•
Route Analysis
•
-
What is the fastest route?
-
How long is the route?
-
Where are all possible routes?
Temporal Pattern Analysis
Refugee ChokeMigration Points
Predictive Analysis Framework What are we predicting? •
Site Selection
•
Mobility Modeling
•
Route Analysis
•
Temporal Pattern Analysis -
Is there evidence of cyclic activities?
-
Are there anomalous activities?
-
Are there any temporal relationships?
Temporal Patterns
Using Doctrine or Pattern of Life Share Analysis Predictive Site Suitability
Define Question
Build Query (Query Editor)
Prepare Data (Geoprocessing, Speed Model Builder)
Analyze Results
Refine
(SPOT Tool)
Final Analysis Map Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis (Route Finder)
Using Evidence to Develop Pattern of Life Share Analysis Define Question
Perform Statistical Analysis (Query Generator)
Prepare Data (Geoprocessing, Speed Model Builder)
Refine
Build Query (Query Editor)
Final Analysis Map Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis (Route Finder)
Analyze Results (SPOT Tool)
Using Doctrine or Pattern of Life
Using Evidence to Develop Pattern of Life
Predictive Site Suitability
Define Question
Define Question
Perform Statistical Analysis
Build Query
(QFIT)
(Query Editor)
Prepare Data
Prepare Data (Geoprocessing, Speed Model Builder)
Refine Analyze Results
Refine
Build Query (Query Editor)
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis (Route Finder)
(Route Finder)
Final Analysis Map
Analyze Results (SPOT Tool)
(Geoprocessing, Speed Model Builder)
Predicting Aedes Habitat and suitable locations for vector borne disease Summary
Annual Precipitation
1. Where are we likely to have mosquito borne disease?
Maximum Temperature
2. What are the most important parameters to minimize risk? Altitude
Minimum Temperature
3. Which environments are most suitable to mosquito borne disease?
Population
Landcover
Predicting Aedes Habitat and suitable locations for vector borne disease David Attaway
Method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to identify locations suitable for mosquito activity year-round.
http://arcg.is/23MP6P2
http://arcg.is/1sbfofp
The Problem…
Predicting Drug Trafficking Locations and Movements Demo Scenario
•
Where will they likely have a farm site?
•
How quickly can they transport their product?
•
Use doctrinal knowledge to set movement constraints
•
Use past data to optimize searching for farms
•
Auto-generate search criteria
•
Find likely travel routes from the farms to the ocean
Drug Grow Analysis - 2013 Q-FIT
•
Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows
•
Aspect
•
Land Ownership
•
Roads
•
Slope
•
Streams and Rivers
•
Trails
•
Vegetation Over Story
•
Vegetation Under Story
•
Water Bodies
Drug Grow Analysis - 2013 Final Result
5 Lessons Learned - 2013 •
Major transportation routes & major population areas
•
Imagery analysis revealed clusters of grows downstream from reservoirs
•
Special agent observed several grows in an area cleared by fire
•
Grows clusters appear on outer edges of the forest
•
Output needs to be continuous
Drug Grow Analysis - 2014 Query Generator
•
Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows
•
Major Highways
•
Slope
•
Roads
•
Streams and Rivers
•
Fire History
•
Trails
•
Artificial Streams and Rivers
•
Vegetation Over Story
•
Forest Boundary
•
Vegetation Under Story
•
Water Bodies
Drug Grow Analysis - 2014 Final Result
2013 vs. 2014 Final Result
Web Solution…
Predictive Analysis Web Tools Predictive Analysis Tools
•
•
•
What they are… -
JavaScript Widgets for the Query Editor / Query Inspector
-
Compatible with ArcGIS Web App Builder
What they do… -
Queries as fast as desktop version
-
Supports large data, and live services
-
Pre-defined queries for reuse and collaboration
When they are available… -
Will be available soon via ArcGIS Online
Predictive Analysis Framework Web Tools Overview •
Query Editor
•
Query Inspector
•
Query Generator
Predictive Analysis Web Application
Available soon on ArcGIS online – contact
[email protected] and they will send it to you today!!!!
Road Map…
•
Now -
Version 1.3 is available on the ArcGIS online -
-
•
Predictive Analysis Tools
The Predictive Analysis Add-In is available for free to anyone here: http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=91c9fce0d3d5487fac1c71f44e72dca4
Previous Versions contact
[email protected]
Future / Ideas -
More web capabilities
-
Desktop tool automation
-
Data Decay parameters
-
Esri Professional Services will work with you on specific requirements… -
If you have the need for training or for any additional capabilities please contact our Esri Professional Services team at
[email protected] with your request
Questions?
Please Take Our Survey on the Esri Events App!
Download the Esri Events app and find your event
Select the session you attended
Scroll down to find the survey
Complete Answers and Select “Submit”
Print Your Certificate of Attendance Print stations located in the 140 Concourse
Monday
Tuesday
12:30 PM – 6:30 PM
10:45 AM – 5:15 PM
GIS Solutions Expo, Hall B
GIS Solutions Expo, Hall B
5:15 PM – 6:30 PM
6:30 PM – 9:30 PM
Expo Social, Hall B
Networking Reception, Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum