Idea Transcript
20160218
Business Outlook Global Electronics Industry
Custer Consulting Group www.custerconsulting.com February 2016
Setting Expectations
Leading Indicators
20160201
Global "Purchasing Managers" Index Diffusion Index, >50 = Growth 60 55
PMI
50 45 40
30
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
35
2003
Markit Economics
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016
20160201
U.S "Purchasing Managers" Index Markit Economics Diffusion Index, >50 = Growth
70 65 60
PMI
55 50 45
Markit zero growth
40
30
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
35
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Markit Economics & ISM
20160201
China "Purchasing Managers" Index Diffusion Index, >50 = Growth 60
PMI
55
50
40
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
45
2004
Markit Economics
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016
20160222
Purchasing Managers' Indices February (preliminary) vs. January 2016 52.4
USA
51.0 52.3
Europe
Above 50 = Growth Below 50 = Contraction
51.0 52.3
Germany
50.2 50.1 49.6
France
January February 52.3
Japan
46.0
50.2
48.0
Markit Economics
50.0
52.0 PMI
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
PMIs are a 2 to 6 month leading indicator of electronics growth
CCG Semiconductor Leading Indicator vs. Global Semiconductor Shipments 20160201
3/12 rate of growth
1.7 1.5
2-Month Lead
1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 CCG Semiconductor Leading Indicator
0.5
0 Growth Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
0.3
SIA Semiconductor Shipments
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20152016
Currency Exchange Rates vs U.S. Dollar
Exchange Rates vs. U.S. Dollar Trade weighted value of US$
Euro
140
1.70
130 Strong dollar
120
Strong Euro
1.50 1.40
110
1.30
100
1.20
90
2015 average 12.5% greater Than 2014 average
80
1.10 1.00
Weak
0.90
70 60
1.60
0.80 1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016
Canada 1.70
20.0
1.60 1.50
Weak
1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2
18.0
Mexico Weak
16.0
1.40 1.30
14.0
1.20 1.10
12.0
1.00
10.0
0.90 0.80
8.0 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016
1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016
20160217
Exchange Rate Impact on US$ Denominated Consolidated World Electronic Equipment Sales Quarterly Revenue Growth Converted to US$ @ Fixed 2014 vs Fluctuating Exchange 25 Impact of strong US$ Global growth @ constant exchange but loss @ fluctuating exchange
20
% Growth
15 10 5 0 -5
Fixed
Fluctuating
-10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010
2011
2012
Global model based on regional shipment indices
2013
2014
2015
Electronic Equipment
Global Electronics 2015 - Production Including Components 20160205 3% 1% 11% 38% 18%
7% 22%
Total US$ 1,861 Billion Reed Electronics Research 2/16
China Asia Pacific (excl China) Japan Americas W Europe Central & E Europe ROW
20151212
20150308
IC Insights 12/15
End-Use Markets Size ($B) & Growth Rates
Methods to Measure Electronic Industry Growth Sector composites based upon financial reports of similar companies - Typically quarterly, semiannually or monthly Government and trade organization statistics - Typically monthly
- TIMELY DATA REPORTED ON A CONSISTENT BASIS IS KEY
Sector composites based upon financial reports of similar companies
20160219
Electronic Equipment Suppliers Composite of 175 Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
800
US $ (billions) converted @ fluctuating exchange rates
700
Revenue
600
Income
500
Inventory
-6.6%
preliminary 4Q’15 data
400 300 200 100 0 -100 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Computer 13, Internet 12, Storage 10, Communication 20, SEMI 37, Medical 21, Instruments 12, Military 21, Business & Office 6, Consumer 13, Automotive 11
World Electronic Equipment Production by Type @2014 Exchange Rates 20150912 2.2% 12.2% 21.3% 9.9% 8.5% 12.0%
25.9%
Electronic Outlook 9/15
8.1%
Business Communication Consumer Auto Computer Military Industrial Instrument
World Electronic Equipment Production 20160219 By Type (preliminary 4Q’15 results) Annual Rate $B (converted @ fluctuating exchange rates)
-6.6%
industr+instru
2000
gov/mil Computer & Peripherals automotive consumer
1500
Telecom/Datacom Business
1000
500
0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Regional Data U.S. Europe Japan China/Taiwan S Korea
20150225
U.S. Electronic Equipment Orders & Shipments Computer, Communications, Measurement & Control and Military 34
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted) Orders
32
Shipments
30 28 26 24 22 20 18 14
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
16
1998
1999
2000
2001
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016
20160212
120
European Computer, Electronic & Optical Products Production
Index (2010=100), Seasonally Adjusted
115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Eurostat, C26 category, EU 27 countries
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20152016
20160219
Japan Electronic Equipment Production by Month 2000 to Present
Yen Billion
800
Elec Application Equip Electronic Measuring Instrumentation Communications Equipment Computers & Related Equipment Electronic Business Machines Consumer Electronic Equipment
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016
JEITA www.jeita.or.jp/
Taiwan/China Electronic Equipment Producers Composite of 101 Manufacturers Consolidated Revenue
20160216
1200
NT$ Billions
1000 800 600 400 January 2016 down 14% compared to January 2015 and down sequentially 21% compared to December 2015
200 0
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Taiwan listed companies, often with significant manufacturing in China
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016
20160223
85
S Korea Electronic Equipment Producers Composite of 7 Manufacturers
KRW Trillions
Very preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40
1
2
3
2009
4
1
2
3
2010
4
1
2
3
2011
4
1
2
3
2012
4
1
2
3
2013
4
1
2
3
2014
4
1
2
3
2015
Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, Daewoo Electronic Components, Samsung SDI, Dongbu Hitek, SK Hynix, KEC Corp
4
Regional Electronic Equipment Shipment Growth
20160225
1.6
3/12 Rate of Growth (in local currency) USA Europe
1.5
Japan
1.4
China/Taiwan Korea
1.3
Zero Growth
1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
0.6
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
0.7
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Calendar Year
Sources: IPC, JPCA, Taiwan/China composite; S Korea composite; Eurostat "wiring devices" for Europe
World Electronic Equipment Monthly Shipments
20160225
Converted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates Europe Japan China Taiwan Korea ROA ROW
Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
USA
US$ B
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Custer Consulting Group & Electronic Outlook Corp
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20152016
World Electronic Equipment Monthly Shipments
20160225
Converted @ Constant 2014 vs Fluctuating Exchange Rates
220
US$ M
Constant 2014
200
Fluctuating 180 8.3% Differ ence
160 140 120
80
Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar
100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Custer Consulting Group & Electronic Outlook Corp
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20152016
Conclusion: Demand has weakened but also the strong dollar has significantly impacted global growth rates consolidated into US$
U.S. Electronic Equipment Orders, Shipments & Inventories
20160225
U.S. Electronic Equipment Order & Shipment Growth Computer, Communications, Measurement & Control and Military
1.30
3/12 Rate of Change Shipments Orders Zero Growth
1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90
0.70
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
0.80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20160204
U.S. Electronic Equipment Orders Monthly Data 100%
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
Medical, Measuring & Control Search & Navigation - non Military
90%
Communication- non Military Computer & Related
80%
Military-Search & Navigation Military-Communications
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0%
Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov
10%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20160225
U.S. Electronic Equipment Inventories vs. Orders 2.40
Ratio Inventories/Orders
2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40
1.00
Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar
1.20
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
Market Segments Volume (Shift to Low Cost Areas) Personal Computers Mobile Phones Other Consumer Electronics Datacom/Telecom Automotive "Protected" Military Medical Instruments & Controls High IP Content Prototype, Quick Response, Short Run, Need for Local Support
Global Electronic Supply Chain Growth 20160223 4Q'15 vs. 4Q'14 (preliminary) -15 Electronic Equipment Military Business & Office Instruments & Controls Medical Communication Internet Computer Data Storage Automotive Consumer SEMI Equip Semiconductors (SIA) Passive Components PCBs Component Distributors Large EMS (excl Foxconn) ODM Process Equipment Materials Rigid & Flex Laminate
-10
-5
0
5
-7 -14 -7 -6 2 -3 1 -7 -10 -7 -9 -5 -5 -2 -2 -2 1 -1 -10 -7 -7
% US$ Change US$ equivalent at fluctuating exchange; based upon industry composites including acquisitions
High Volume Consumer Driven Markets
Changing Electronic Equipment Markets
20160219
Communication Equipment Suppliers Composite of 20 Companies
10 mobile phone makers, 10 other telecom equipment makers plus estimate of other mobile makers
Millions
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory 200
$ Billions -2.6% Revenue
150
Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
Income Inventory
100 50 0 -50 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3COM, ADC Telecom, Alcatel+Lucent, Ciena, Ericsson, Motorola Solutions,, Nokia, Polycom, TellLabs, Palm ; Apple iPhone, HTC, Huawei Device, LG, Motorola Mobility, Nokia, RIM, Samsung, Sony Mobility, ZTE; Euros & Krona converted at fluctuating exchange; mobile phone volumes from company reports & Gartner Dataquest quarterly unit shipment estimates; historical data included for acquired companies
20160218
Smartphone Unit Shipments to End Users
Thousands
World 450
Units (Millions)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 2007
2008
2009
Gartner Dataquest 2/16 & prior reports
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20151031
Apple Inc. Revenue, Net Income & Inventory 90
$ Billions + 22%
80 Revenue
70 60
Income
50
Inventory
40 30 20 10 0
75.5-77.5 10/27/15
-10
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
CY FY ends September
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
AAPL
Apple Product Mix
20151028
100%
Quarterly Revenues $B
90% 80% 70% 60%
Software Service Peripherals/Oth Hardware
50% Music iPod
40% Desktop/Notebook iPad
30% iPhone 20% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Millions
Computer Equipment Suppliers Composite of 13 Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
20160219
140
$ Billions Revenue
120
Apple iPhone financials reported in Communication sector Media tablets from all vendors included with "Computer Equipment“
-7.3%
Income
100
Inventory
Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
80 60 40 20 0 -20 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Acer+Gateway, Apple, Creative Tech, Cray, Dell, HP, IBM, Lenovo, Mercury, NCR, Sun Micro, Unisys Other vendors media tablet sales estimated from unit shipments
20150904
Total Personal Computer Unit Growth
IC Insights 9/15
20160206
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Units (millions)
2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Others 5.5 RCA Barnes & Noble 1.4 Microsoft Amazon 4.7 LG Electronics Huawei Acer Lenovo Asus 0.6 Samsung 2.2 Apple 15.1
IDC 1/16 & earlier
Media Tablets World Top 5 Vendors
4.9
7.4
13.5
11.6 15.5
16.4 16.0 0.9
24.6 16.6
19.1 23.0 33.1 2.6
18.6 20.4
23.9 30.2
1.0 0.0 0.7
0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.1 4.3 11.8 17.0 14.0
5.9
0.9 1.8
0.8 0.6 3.1 2.6 7.8 8.5 22.9 19.5
5.8
1.5 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.0 3.6 8.4 9.3 14.6 14.1
1.0
1.1 0.7 3.4 2.0 4.0 2.6 13.5 10.8 26.0 16.4
1.9 1.3 1.0
0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 2.4 3.1 3.7 2.3 3.4 3.0 8.6 9.7 11.0 13.3 12.3 21.4
5.2 1.4 1.1
1.6 1.6
2.5 2.5 1.8 8.4 7.6 12.6 10.9
1.8
2.2
3.1 1.9 8.0 9.9
3.2 9.0 16.1
20160218
Digital Still Cameras Built-in & Interchangeable Lens Global Shipment Units (000)
10000
SLR non-SLR Built-in Lens Interchangeable Lens
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1
3
5
7 2012
www.cipa.jp/
9
11
1
3
5
7 2013
9
11
1
3
5
7 2014
9
11
1
3
5
7 2015
9
11
20160218
Thousands
Smartphones Cannibalize PCs, Tablets & Digital Cameras 450
World Units (Millions)
Smartphones
PCs
Tablets
Digital Still Cameras
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
www.gartner.com; www.cipa.jp/; www.icinsights.com; www.idc.com; www.digitimes.com
2015
20160211
Data Storage Equipment Suppliers Composite of 12 Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
25.0
$ Billions Revenue
20.0
-9.5%
Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
Income
15.0
Inventory
10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Brocade, EMC, Iomega, Lexar, Maxtor, Network Appliance, Netlist, Qlogic, Quantum, Seagate, Storage Technology, Western Digital, SanDisk. Companies now no longer operating were included in historical data until they shut down
Local Markets
Automotive Electronics
20160219
Automotive Equipment Suppliers Composite of 11 Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
60.0
$ Billions Revenue Income Inventory
50.0
-6.9%
Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Autoliv, Borg Warner, Continental AG, Delphi, Federal Mogul, Gentex, Johnson Controls, Lear, TRW Automotive, Valeo, Visteon
20160204
U.S. Vehicle Shipments US$ Billion Lt Trucks & Utility Vehicles
30
Heavy Duty Trucks
Automobiles
25 20 15 10 5 0
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 2000
2001
2002
2003
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20160222
Tesla Revenue, Net Income & Inventory 1600
$ Millions
Revenue Income
+27%
Inventory
1100
600
100
-400
-900 Q3
Q4 2013
Q1
Q2
Q3 2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015
CY
TSLA
Aviation, Government & Military Electronics
20160219
Military Equipment Composite of 21 Public Companies
Millions
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory 120
$ Billions Revenue
-13.7%
Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
100 Income
80
Inventory
60 40 20 0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Boeing (military portion), EADS (military portion), Finmeccinica,General Dynamics, Halliburton, Harris, Honeywell (military portion), L-3 Communications, Lockheed, Moog, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Rockwell Collins, Textron, Thales, United Technology
20160204
U.S. Military Electronics Orders & Shipments
Thousands
Defense Communication & Search & Navigation Equipment
6
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted) Orders
5
Shipments
4 3 2
0
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016
U.S. Aircraft & Parts Shipments
20160225
US$ Billion Non-Defense
25
Defense
20 15 10 5 0
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 2000
2001
2002
2003
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Instruments & Control Equipment
U.S. Electromedical, Measurement & Control Equipment Orders & Shipments 20160204 11
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted) Orders
10
Shipments
9 8 7 6
4
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
5
1999
2000
2001
2002
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016
20160219
Medical Equipment Composite of 21 Public Companies
Millions
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory 25
$ Billions +2.3% Revenue
Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
20 Income
15
Inventory
10 5 0 -5 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Analogic, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Boston Scientific, Bruker, CareFusion, Covidien, Draeger, Guidant, Hill-Rom, Intuitive Surgical, Invacare, Medtronic, ResMed, St Jude Medical, Smith & Nephew, STERIS, Stryker, Varian Medical, Waters, Zimmer
Future High Volume Markets
Autonomous cars Internet of Things Drones Robots Wearables
20160224
Internet of Things Installed Base by Category Units (millions)
30,000 25,000 20,797 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Total Business Vertical-Specific Business Cross-industry Consumer Gartner 11/15
3,807
2014 3,807 898 632 2,277
4,903
2015 4,903 1,065 815 3,023
6,392
2016 6,392 1,276 1,092 4,024
2020 20,797 2,880 4,408 13,509
20140906
World Spending on Robots 80
US$ (Billions)
70
66.9
60 50 42.9
40 30
26.9
20
15.1 10.8
10 0 Total Military Industrial Commercial Personal
7.4
2000 7.4 2.4 3.9 1.1 0.0
2005 10.8 3.5 5.2 1.7 0.4
2010 15.1 5.1 5.8 3.2 1.0
2015 26.9 7.5 11.0 5.9 2.5
2020 42.9 11.2 16.4 10.8 4.5
2025 66.9 16.5 24.4 17.0 9.0
BCG Analysis 9/14, International Federation of Robots, Japan Robot Assoc, Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, euRobotics, company filings
N American Robot Orders Shipments by N American Companies to N America 20160221
10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
US$ (Millions)
Units (000)
Units
600
$ 500
Automotive industry was primary growth driver in 2015
400 300 200 100 0 Q1
Q2
Q3
2011
www.robotics.org
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
Fastest growing applications for robot orders in N America in 2015 were Coating and Dispensing (+49%), Material Handling (+24%), and Spot Welding (+22%).
20160221
Wearable Devices 2015-2017 Millions of Devices
Device Smartwatch Head-mounted Display Body-worn Camera Bluetooth Headset Wristband Smart Garment Chest Strap Sports Watch Other Fitnes Monitor Total Gartner 2/2016
2015 30.3 0.1 0.1 116.3 30.2 0.1 12.9 21.0 21.1 232.0
2016 50.4 1.4 0.2 128.5 35.0 1.0 13.0 24.0 21.1 274.6
2017 66.7 6.3 1.1 139.2 44.1 5.3 8.0 26.9 25.1 322.7
Semiconductor Fab, Assembly, Packaging,Test & Measurement Equipment
Semiconductor Fab, Test & Measurement 10`60219 Composite of 37 Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory 25.0 20.0
Revenue
US$ Billions @ fluctuating exchange
Chart Title -4.5%
Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
Income Inventory
15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Advantest, Applied Materials, ASM Intl, ASML, Brooks Automation, BTU, CollabRx, Dainippon Screen, Disco, Electroglas, Entegris, FEI, FSI, Hitachi Hi Tech, Hitachi Kokosai, KLA-Tencor, Ibis, Intervac, Kulicke & Soffa, Lam Research, Mattson,MKS Instrument, Novellus Systems, Photon Dynamics, Rudolph Technologies, Teradyne, Tokyo Electron, Ultra Clear, Ultratech Stepper, Varian Semiconductor, Veeco, Xcerra (LTX-Credence)
Semiconductor Capital Equipment Shipments by Area 14.0
$ Billions ROW
12.0
China
+9.4%
Taiwan
10.0
S Korea N America
8.0
Japan Europe
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001 2002
2003 2004
2005 2006
www.semi.org, www.seaj.or.jp/ 12/15
2007 2008
2009
2010 2011
2012 2013
2014 2015
Global Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment 3-Month Shipment Growth Rates on $ Basis 20160205 4.0 3.5
3/12 Rate of Change Semiconductors SEMI Capital Equip
3.0
Zero Growth
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
0.0
Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan
0.5
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Sources: SIA; Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan, www.semi.org, Custer Consulting Group SEMI equipment sector composite growth
Component Distributors
20160219
Electronic Component Distributors Composite of 9 US Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
16.0
$ Billions
14.0
Revenue
12.0
Income
10.0
Inventory
-2.4%
Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Arrow, Avnet, EACO (Bisco), Electrocomponents, Excelpoint, Nu Horizons (historical), Richardson, WPG Holdings, WT Microelectronics
2015
20160218
2000
DMASS - European Semiconductor Distribution Industry $ Millions Other
France
UK
Italy
Germany
1500
1000
500
0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2003
2004
2005
http://dmass.com/ 2/16
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20160218
DMASS
European Semiconductor Distribution Industry 2,500
2,000
Euros (Millions)
2009
DMASS estimates that 60% of the increase in 2015 was due to the exchange rate swing, in other words, the organic growth lay between 6 and 7%.
2200
Germany Italy UK France
1,500
1596
E Europe
1400
Other
958
1,000
500
594 536 500
735
667 605 561
0 2014
2015
"As predicted, we enjoyed record business in distribution in 2015, at least from a sales perspective. What is different to previous years is the fact that no shortages accompanied this double-digit growth, product availability was never an issue. A big part of the success story is a purely technical effect that will disappear in 2016, unless the exchange rates run riot again. All signs - currency effects, economy, and Chinese downturn - would lead to conclude that we will encounter a far more solemn business environment in 2016."
DMASS 2/2016; http://dmass.com/
EMS & ODM Companies
Millions
20160211
Global EMS & ODM Companies Composite of 52 Public Companies Revenue
140 120
US $ Billions US$ Sales @ fluctuating exchange
-5.9%
Very preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
100 80 60 40 20 0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20160211
Large Global EMS Providers 2014 vs. 2015 Sales ($M)
Hon Hai (Foxconn) Flextronics Jabil Circuit Sanmina-SCI Celestica Benchmark Elec Plexus Venture Mfg Sypris Total
Taiwan Singapore USA USA Canada USA USA Singapore USA
2014 138,765 26,920 15,969 6,439 5,631 2,797 2,509 1,945 355
2015 141,717 24,598 18,557 6,238 5,639 2,541 2,606 1,928 153
2015/2014 Growth % +2% -9% +16% -3% 0% -9% +4% -1% -57%
201,331
204,291
+1.5%
Sources: Company data Local currency converted at fluctuating exchange
20160211
Large U.S EMS Providers Composite of 6 Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory Revenue
25.0
Income
20.0
+1.0%
Very preliminary 4Q’15 estimate & 1Q’16 projection
Inventory
15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Benchmark+Pemstar, Celestica, Flex+Solectron, Jabil, Plexus, Sanmina
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016
20160111
Large Taiwan ODM Providers 2014 vs. 2015 Sales ($M)
Foxconn (Hon Hai) Pegatron Quanta Computer Compal Electronics Wistron Asustek Computer Inventec Chimei Innolux Lite On Technology Total
2014 139,032 33,632 30,566 27,909 19,534 15,747 14,376 14,145 7,611 302,551
2015 141,202 38,224 31,726 26,685 19,631 14,875 12,456 11,469 6,828 303,094
2015/2014 Growth % +1.6% +13.7% +3.8% -4.4% +0.5% -5.5% -13.4% -18.9% -10.3% +0.2%
Source: Company data, NT$ converted at constant avg 2015 exchange (31.75 NT$ = 1US$) Consolidated company sales
Taiwan ODM Companies Composite Sales of 11 Large Manufacturers 1,200
NT$ (Billions)
1,000 800 600 400 Jan 2016 down 15% vs. Jan 2015 and down 21% sequentially from Dec 2015
0
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
200
98
99
00
01
02
Company Financial Releases
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15 16
Calendar Year
Asustek Computer, Chei Mei, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux , Inventec, Inventec Appliance, Lite On Technology, Mitac International, Pegatron, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Chei Mei Display replacing Chei Mei & Innolux Display 3/10 & later
20160111
Large ODM Companies Composite of 10 Public Manufacturers Quarterly Revenue Growth
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Asustek Computer, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux, Inventec, Inventec Appliance, Lite On Technology, Mitac International, Pegatron, Quanta Computer, Wistron
20160224
140
IPC Small & Medium N American EMS Company Revenue Index
Index 2010 avg month = 100
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20160224
IPC Small/Medium EMS vs Composite of 53 Public EMS/ODM Companies Revenue 140
US $ Billions 20000
120 100 80
53 Company IPC Small/Medium
15000 10000
60 40
5000 20
0
0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
U.S PMI Leading Index vs IPC N American EMS Shipments
20160224
3/12 Growth
1.70
US PMI Is a 1-year leading Indicator for US EMS shipments
1.60 1.50 1.40
U.S. PMI Leading Indicator IPC N Amer EMS Shipments Zero Growth
1 year Lead
1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90
2007
ISM & IPC
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
0.70
Jan
0.80
2016
PCB Fabrication
20150930
Thousands
World PCB Production 1980-2014 70.0
US$ Note: Each year was calculated independently using exchange rates for that year.
60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0
Because each year involved an independent evaluation and because exchange rates can fluctuate significantly, year-to-year growth rates may not be meaningful. "Fluctuating exchange" growth rates can be significantly different vs. those calculated using constant exchange rates.
20.0 10.0 0.0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Calendar Year IPC: World PCB Production Report 2014, Custer estimate for 2015
20150728
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
World’s Top PCB Companies – 2014 1-25 Company Nippon Mektron* ZDT* Unimicron SEMCO Young Poong Grp* Ibiden TTM Technologies Sumitomo Denko* Tripod Viasystems Daeduck Group Nanya PCB Compeq PSA PCB Group KG PCB Group AT&S Meiko Kinsus LG Innotek T.P.T. Multek WUS Group Chin Poon CMK Nitto Denko*
Nationality Japan Taiwan Taiwan S. Korea S. Korea Japan USA Japan Taiwan USA S. Korea Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan China Austria Japan Taiwan S. Korea Taiwan USA Taiwan Taiwan Japan Japan
2013 2,209 2,106 2,009 1,795 2,100 1,315 1,326 1,121 1,337 1,171 1,297 1,016 1,013 957 922 784 692 757 581 684 730 658 634 621 485
2014 3,176 2,483 2,130 1,562 1,523 1,493 1,422 1,414 1,391 1,204 1,159 1,146 1,110 970 963 886 850 818 791 784 750 698 697 689 684
Dr Hayao Nakahara, N.T. Information Ltd 7/2015
Growth 43.78% 17.90% 6.02% -12.98% -27.48% 13.54% 7.24% 26.14% 4.08% 2.82% -10.64% 8.09% 9.55% 1.36% 4.45% 13.01% 22.83% 7.97% 36.14% 14.60% 2.74% 6.08% 9.93% 10.95% 41.03%
Brief Comments A big Apple supplier A big Apple supplier Building PCB plants in Huangxi Building plants in Vietnam Interflex & YPE poor in 2014 Boosting growth from Malaysia Purchased Viasystems on 5/'15 A big Apple supplier Pushing into automotive PCB Purchased by TTM 5/31/2015 Careful investment IC substrates seem to grow Chongqing plant contributing NB mortherboards reduced Elec& Eltek is the largest CKG plant starts business soon #3 automotive PCB maker Flip-Chip CSP strong LGE & Qualcomm NB motherboards increasing Profitable since Oct 2013 Kunshan & Huangxi new plants #1 automotive PCB maker #2 automotive PCB maker FPC for HDD among others
20160219
Japan PCB Shipments 100
Yen (Billions)
90 80 70 60 50 40
2015/2014 +6.1%
30 20
0
Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan
10
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1516
Calendar Year www.jpca.org/kikaitoukei/kikai2013.xls
20160220
Taiwan Rigid & Flex PCB Shipments Broad Composite of 46 Taiwan-listed Manufacturers 60
NT$ (Billions)
50 40 30 20 2015 down 1.9% vs. 2014 in NT$ and down 6.3% at fluctuating exchange in U.S. dollars
0
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
10
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Calendar Year Company Financial Releases
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
20151117
Millions
S. Korean PCB Revenues Composite of 11 Publicly Traded Manufacturers Quarterly Revenue 7
KRW Billion Very preliminary 4Q’15 estimate
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Samsung EM, Young Poong, Daeduck, Simm Tech, Isu Petasys, Flexcom, DAP, BH, Samsung Techwin, Korea Circuit
20160129
N American Rigid & Flexible PCB Shipments & Orders
$M (statistical sample of about 50% of producers) 250
2015/2014 Rigid & Flex PCB Shipment Growth: +0.5%
Shipments Orders
200 150 100 50 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Note: IPC survey captures "market" not domestic production. About 15% of the above represents imported boards resold by N American PCB producers in survey.
IPC
2015
20160204
U.S Electronic Supply Chain Shipment Growth 4Q’15 vs. 4Q’14 -10 -5 Electronic Equipment Electromedical, Measurement & Control Search & Navigation Computer Related Communication Defense Automotive Airplane/Aerospace - non Defense Airplane/Aerospace - Defense Semiconductors to N America PCBs Passive components Industrial Production
0
5
10 15
20 25
2 7 5 -3 8 0 6 4 4 15 1 34 -1
% Change Custer Consulting Group
30 35
40
World PCB Model
20150930
2014 World Total PCB Production by Geographical Area (US$ M @ Average 2014 Exchange)
12.6%
0.4%
8.0%
5.0% 13.0%
4.3%
9.8%
46.8%
Total: $60.2 Billion IPC 9/15
N America Europe Japan China/HK Taiwan S Korea Rest of Asia ROW
20160219
Regional PCB Shipment Growth 2.0 3/12 Rate of Growth (in local currency)
Taiwan/China S Korea
1.8
Japan N America
1.6
Europe Zero Growth
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8
0.4
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
0.6
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Calendar Year Sources: IPC, JPCA, Taiwan/China composite; Eurostat "wiring devices" for Europe
14
15
16
20160219
World PCB Monthly Shipments Converted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates 3.5
$ Billions N America
3.0
Europe Japan Taiwan/China
2.5
Rest of Asia Korea
2.0 1.5 1.0
0.0
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
0.5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Calendar Year Source: Custer Consulting Group
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Outlook
Walt
Global PMI, Electronic Equipment, PCB & 20160216 Semiconductor Shipments 1.8
3/12 Rate of Change PCB Semiconductor
1.6
Elec Equip Global PMI
1.4
Zero Growth
1.2 1.0 0.8
0.4
Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar
0.6
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Calendar Year Source: Custer Consulting Group
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
20160225
Worldwide Semiconductor Market by Geography WSTS Forecast 400 350
336 335 336 298 300 292 306
300 248 256 249
250
213
204
200 150
346
227
226
166
149
139 141
100 50 0
1999 Total 149. Asia Pacific 37.2 Japan 32.8 Europe 31.9 Americas 47.5
2000 204. 51.3 46.7 42.3 64.1
WSTS 2/16
2001 138. 39.8 33.1 30.2 35.8
2002 140. 51.2 30.5 27.8 31.3
2003 166. 62.8 38.9 32.3 32.3
2004 213. 88.8 45.8 39.4 39.1
2005 227. 103. 44.1 39.1 40.7
2006 247. 116. 46.4 39.9 44.9
2007 255. 123. 48.8 41.0 42.3
2008 248. 124. 48.5 38.2 37.9
2009 226. 119. 38.3 29.9 38.5
2010 298. 160. 46.6 38.1 53.7
2011 299. 164. 42.9 37.4 55.2
2012 291. 163. 41.1 33.2 54.4
2013 305. 174. 34.8 34.9 61.5
2014 335. 194. 34.8 37.5 69.3
2015 335. 201. 31.1 34.3 68.7
2016 336. 201. 31.3 33.7 69.7
2017 346. 207. 32.1 34.5 72.0
20160223
Global Growth Rates Process Equipment, Materials & Laminate
1.8
3/12 Rate of Change Process Eq
1.6
Materials Laminate
1.4
Zero Growth
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
Q1
Q3
2003
Q1
Q3
2004
Q1
Q3 2005
Q1
Q3 2006
Q1
Q3
2007
Q1
Q3
2008
Q1
Q3 2009
Q1
Q3 2010
Q1
Q3 2011
Q1
Q3
2012
Q1
Q3
2013
Q1
Q3 2014
Q1
Q3
Q1
2015
Calendar Year Company Financials of 12 Laminate suppliers, 13 material suppliers & 8 Process Equipment Suppliers
U.S PMI Leading Index vs
20160224
N American Small-Medium Company EMS Shipments 3/12 Growth
1.70
US PMI Is a 1-year leading Indicator for US EMS shipments
1.60 1.50 1.40
U.S. PMI Leading Indicator IPC N Amer EMS Shipments Zero Growth
1 year Lead
1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90
2007
ISM & IPC
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
0.70
Jan
0.80
2016
20160219
World PCB Shipments (with forecast) Converted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5
$ Billions -0.6% +0.5%
Growth calculations: Europe = Eurostat “Wiring Device” Japan & N. America from JPCA & IPC data Taiwan/China:46 rigid & flex company composite Rest of Asia growth = Taiwan/China 44 company composite Includes S Korea data for 2011-2014
-1.2%
4.0 3.5 3.0 Actual
2.5
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep
2.0
Forecast
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Calendar Year Source: Custer Consulting Group - 2010 base year expanded by monthly growth of N. American, European, Japanese, Korean & Taiwan/China monthly PCB shipments
16
20151004
World Rigid & Flex PCB Production Converted @ 10/15 Exchange Rates 80
$ Billion Americas
Germany
Other Europe
China
Japan
Taiwan
S Korea
70 60
59.9
59.8
59.8
60.2
59.8
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Other Asia
61.6
61.9
2016
2017
50 40 30 20 10 0
Custer Consulting Group 2/16
20160111
Conclusions 2015 global growth slowed vs 2014 with many Asia/Pacific produced consumer driven products seeing weakened demand 2016 is off to a modest start Personal computer, media tablet and digital camera sales have declined and smartphone growth has slowed New high volume products are emerging but are not yet contributing significantly to global volumes Strong dollar is negatively impacting US$ denominated global growth calculations Leading indicators are useful for tracking the recovery regionally
Don’t Shoot the Messenger
20111007
Custer Consulting Group Products Daily News Services (6 days/week) - Global electronics supply chain - Solar/Photovoltaic supply chain Business Outlook - Market charts & data Global market OEMs Components, EMS, ODM, materials & process equip Solar/Photovoltaic - Weekly Market Comments with latest charts