Daily Forex and IRF Report
Feb 09,2017
USDINR Chart Technical Outlook
USDINR is expected to trade sideways in today’s s e s s i o n . Resistance is at 67.50 and support is at 67.30 mark. Global Indices
Global Stock Indices and OTC Market
Intraday Trading Strategy
Previous Closing
Change
BSE-SENSEX
28289
-45.24
NSE NIFTY
8769
-0.8
NIKKEI
18971.45
-36.14
DOW
20054.34
-35.95
DAX
11543.38
-6.06
FTSE
7188.82
+2.60
Forward Rates Premium/Discount (USD/INR) Duration
Bid
Ask
1 Month Forward
23.75
27.00
3 Month Forward
86.50
88.50
6 Month Forward
162.00
164.00
1 Year Forward
310.00
312.00
Currency
Today’s Trend
Strategy
USDINR
Downwards
Sell around 67.20 with a stop loss above 67.35 for a target of 66.90
EURINR
Downwards
Sell around 72.10 with a stop loss above 72.30 for a target of 71.65
GBPINR
Downwards
Sell around 84.30 with a stop loss above 84.50 for a target of 83.90
JPYINR
Downwards
Sell around 60.12 with a stop loss above 60.30 for a target of 59.75
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Daily Forex and IRF Report
Feb 09,2017
Technical Levels
Symbols
Expiry
Close
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USD/INR
Feb 2017
67.37
67.10
67.00
66.90
67.20
67.30
67.42
EUR/INR
Feb 2017
71.80
71.75
71.50
71.20
72.00
72.20
72.40
GBP/INR
Feb 2017
84.20
84.00
83.73
83.50
84.19
84.30
84.50
JPY/INR
Feb 2017
60.02
59.75
59.50
59.36
60.12
60.27
60.42
The Indian rupee rose to a near-three-month-high against the dollar, as banks sold the U.S. currency for corporates and exporters, outweighing an initial impact from the Monetary Policy Committee's unexpected decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving consumer price index or CPI inflation at 5 per cent by Q4 of 2016-17 and the medium-term target of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth, the RBI said in its statement.
Daily Snapshot
The dollar turned lower against other major currencies on Wednesday, but losses were expected to remain limited as political uncertainty in Europe continued to weigh on market sentiment. Worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the on going row over Greece's bailout added to concerns over political risk in the euro area. Meanwhile, sentiment on the greenback remained supported after Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said that the U.S. central bank should keep monetary policy moderately accommodative.
Strategy for Exporters and Importers
Currency Pairs
Recommendation
USDINR
Exporters may cover there near term receivables
EURINR
Exporters may cover there near term receivables
GBPINR
Exporters may cover there near term receivables
JPYINR
Exporters may cover there near term receivables
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Daily Forex and IRF Report
Feb 09,2017
759GS2026 Daily Chart
Technical Outlook
Symbols
Expiry
Close
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
759GS2026
Feb 2017
104.52
104.30
104.20
104.05
104.65
104.75
104.90
Indian sovereign bonds plunged, with the benchmark yield posting its biggest single-session gain since September 2013, after the country's Monetary Policy Committee unexpectedly left key interest rate unchanged and shifted to a ‘neutral' stance. The benchmark 6.97% bond maturing in 2026 settled at 101.55 rupees, the lowest level since Nov. 8, yielding 6.75%. Benchmark yield surged 32 basis points yesterday, the biggest single session gain since Sep. 20, 2013. The MPC projected inflation in a range of 4%-4.5% for the first half of the next fiscal year that starts Apr. 1 and 4.5%-5% in the second half.
Price Movements for Feb 08, 2017
10 Year 7.59 Benchmark Bond Yield
759GS2026 Dec series
Futures
Open
106.74
High Low Close
106.74 104.24 104.52
Close
Change
Previous Close
106.67
2.340
-0.011
Close
Change
6.739
+0.308
US Treasury Yield
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The 10 year 7.59 future is likely to trade sideways. It has resistance at 106.35 and support is at 105.94 mark.
Daily Forex and IRF Report
Feb 09,2017
WPI (YoY)(in %)
Indian Inflation (WPI) 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6
Details
Net Change
Closing Level
India IIP (Nov)
+7.6
+5.7%
India’s Economic Indicators WPI (Inflation) (Dec)
+0.24
3.39%
CPI (Inflation) (Dec)
-0.22
3.41
Foreign Exchange Reserve (As on 27 Jan 2016)
$ +0.78b
$361.56 b
Price Movements for Feb 08, 2017 USD/INR (Spot)
Cash
Open
67.38
High
67.38
Low
67.04
Close
67.04
Previous Close
67.39
RBI Reference Rates Currency
Rate
USD
67.3058
EUR
71.8759
GBP
84.1659
100 YEN
59.9400
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Daily Forex and IRF Report
Feb 09,2017
Date
IST
Country
Release
Consensus
Previous
Impact Economic
09-Feb
12:30 PM
Euro
German Trade Balance
23.2B
21.7B
Currency Research
Nirmal Tewari
Religare Securities Limited
E-mail:
[email protected] Website: www.religareonline.com
High
Calendar
+91120-6795521 |
[email protected] |Analyst Currency
Research Team
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Daily Forex and IRF Report
Feb 09,2016
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