Idea Transcript
Deutsche Bank Stefan Krause Chief Financial Officer
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Frankfurt, 5 June 2009
Agenda
1
Strength g through g the crisis
2
Well positioned to stay strong …
3
… and emerge stronger
Investor Relations 06/09 · 2
We remain a relative winner through the crisis 3Q2007-1Q2009, reported, in EUR bn Aggregate Net Income
Fair value gains on own debt 9.8
1.9
((1))
7.0
0.8
6.4 (0.1) (2)
(2.6) (2 9) (2.9)
(3)
(23.4) (23 9) (23.9)
(4)
(28.2)
1.7 0.3 3.0 39 3.9 4.5 37 3.7 4.1
(1) 3Q07-4Q08 3Q07 4Q08 based on diverging fiscal year (2) 3Q07-4Q07 3Q07 4Q07 Net Income based on diverging fiscal year year, 3Q07 3Q07-4Q08 4Q08 FV gains on own debt based on diverging fiscal year (3) FV gains also reflects fair value gain on Mandatory Convertible Notes of EUR 2.4 bn in 1Q08 (4) 3Q07-4Q08 Note: Based on FY2007, 1Q2008-1Q2009 FV gains/losses on own debt due to credit spread movements; for peers Net Income reflects Net Income attributable to the shareholders of the parent; converted into EUR based on average FX rate of respective reporting period Source: Company data Investor Relations 06/09 · 3
Capital ratios have been strengthened 10.3 10.1
8.7
8.4
8.8
8.6
9.2
10.2 10.2 Target: g ~10%
9.3
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.1
6.9
6.8
7.0
6.9
7.1
329 319 308
311
2Q
3Q
303
305
1Q
2Q
316 308
285 1Q
2007 Tier 1 ratio, in %
4Q
Core Tier 1 ratio, in %
3Q
4Q
2008 RWA, in EUR bn
Note: 2007 based on Basel I, from 2008 onwards based on Basel II, Core Tier 1 ratio = BIS Tier 1 capital less Hybrid Tier 1 Capital divided by RWAs Investor Relations 06/09 · 4
1Q 2009
Intrinsic capital strength in peer context
Impact of state capital injections Tier 1 ratio excluding state capital injections
Tier 1 ratio as of 31 March 2009, in %
16.7
16.0 14.1 11.9
13.2
11.4
10.5
10 2 10.2
10 1 10.1 8.8
8.7
7.8
7.7
8.6
13.4 9.3
8.4
JPMorgan Chase
UBS
6.8
Morgan Goldman Credit Stanley(1) Sachs Suisse (1) Based on Basel I Source: Company data Investor Relations 06/09 · 5
Citi
(2) As of 31 December 2008
7.4
DB
(2)
Bank of BNP Société Barclays America Paribas Générale
Unsecured funding: Quantity, Quantity quality, quality consistency In EUR bn 511 153
30%
15%
75
+ 62
420
358
30 JJune 2007 Short-term wholesale funding Fiduciary clearing & other deposits Fiduciary, Note: Figures may not add up due to rounding differences Investor Relations 06/09 · 6
Cash and liquidity reserves exceed short-term wholesale f di funding
495
31 M Mar 2009 Capital markets Retail deposits
Current funding position is very robust Modest additional capital market funding New issuance, in EUR bn
Remaining
CDS spreads support funding cost advantage 5-year senior i CDS CDS, 2 June J 2009 2009, in i bps b
333
54 45
204
124 125
21 16
15
2005
2006
Source: Bloomberg Investor Relations 06/09 · 7
2007
2008
Plan 2009
85
91
136 36 137
97
62
BNP DB
CS JPM UBS GS BAR BoA MS
Citi
Agenda
1
Strength g through g the crisis
2
Well positioned to stay strong …
3
… and emerge stronger
Investor Relations 06/09 · 8
Provision for credit losses have risen risen, partly reflecting transfers ... In EUR m Single counterparty relationship Related to IAS 39 reclassified assets
591
526
185 218
329 98
81
105
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
114
135
236 72
1Q
2Q
3Q
2007
4Q
2008
1Q 2009
Thereof: CIB
(20)
(42)
(19)
190
(11)
(9)
66
361
357
117
124
124
136
125
145
169
229
169
Thereof: PCAM Note: Divisional figures do not add up due to omission of Corporate Investments Investor Relations 06/09 · 9
... but remain relatively low In EUR bn Loan book
Provision for credit losses
As of 31 December 2008 CIB / Other Private clients other Private clients mortgages
FY2008
659 23.2
509 527 491 478
18.5 14.6
358 231
271
160
CS
5.8
UBS
DB
SOC BAR
C
BNP JPM BoA
05 0.5
1.1
CS
DB
2.0
6.7
2.7
UBS SOC BNP BAR JPM BoA
Note: Private Clients reflects for CS: "Consumer Consumer loans“; loans ; UBS: “Global Global Wealth Management & Business Banking”; Banking ; SOC: “French French Networks” Networks , “International International Retail Banking” Banking , “Financial Services”; BAR: “Retail business”; C: "Global Cards", "Consumer Banking", "Global Wealth Management“; BNP: "French Retail Banking", "BNL", "International Retail Services”; JPM: “Total Consumer Loans”; BoA: “Consumer”; converted into EUR based on spot/average FX rate of respective reporting period Source: Company disclosure Investor Relations 06/09 · 10
C
Significant reduction in balance sheet leverage In EUR bn 30 June 2008
Leverage ratio(2)
31 March 2009 38
2,103
1,991 ,
28
1,338 (653)
25
982 (1,122)
IFRS
Netting(1)
U.S. GAAP ‘pro-forma’
IFRS
Netting(1)
U.S. GAAP ‘pro-forma’
30 Jun 2008
31 Dec 2008
31 Mar 2009
(1) For 30 June 2008 incl. derivatives netting of EUR 498 bn, pending settlements netting of EUR 92 bn and repo netting of EUR 62 bn; for 31 March incl. derivatives netting of EUR 1,020 bn, pending settlements netting of EUR 97 bn and repo netting of EUR 5 bn (2) Total assets (U.S. GAAP ‘pro-forma’) divided by total equity per target definition Note: Figures may not add up due to rounding differences Investor Relations 06/09 · 11
Agenda
1
Strength g through g the crisis
2
Well positioned to stay strong …
3
… and emerge stronger
Investor Relations 06/09 · 12
Revenue generation in the first quarter 2009 In EUR bn Significant g p property p y impairment p Mark-downs
01 0.1 Monolines 0.8
2.2 9.6
3.2
0.5 1.0
2.3 12 1.2
8.8
7.3 5.1
7.2 4.6
5.4
4.4 (0.9) *
1Q
2Q
3Q 2007
* Includes EUR 0.9 bn of mark-downs Investor Relations 06/09 · 13
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q 2008
4Q
1Q 2009
Substantial profitability profitability, even after mark-downs In EUR bn Income before income taxes
Net income
3.2 2.7 1.4
1.8
1.4
2.1
1.8 1.6
1.2
1.0
06 0.6
06 0.6
0.1
0.4
(0.1)
(0 3) (0.3)
(4 8) (4.8)
(6 2) (6.2) 1Q
2Q
3Q
2007 Investor Relations 06/09 · 14
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
2008
4Q
1Q
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
1Q
2009
00 2007
008 2008
009 2009
Continued reduction of risk and costs Maintaining de-levered balance sheet
Continued management of legacy exposures
Global Markets balance sheet (U (U.S. S GAAP ‘pro-forma’)* pro forma )
U S RMBS exposures* U.S. exposures
(43)%
1Q08
2Q08
Hedges Net exposure (56)%
3Q08
4Q08
4Q07
1Q09
1Q08
2Q08
Streamlined headcount Gl b l M Global Markets k t h headcount d t (32)%
Peak 2007 * Per quarter end Note: 2007 based on structure as of 2008, 2008 onwards based on latest structure Investor Relations 06/09 · 15
4Q08
1Q09
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
Sales & Trading demonstrated its earnings power Revenues, in EUR bn Successfully y recalibrated business model Illustrative
5% 38 3.8 ~15%
Highly illiquid
High g loss absorption p capacity p y
1.1
4.0