FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Year 2016-2036 - Federal Aviation ... [PDF]

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Table of Contents Forecast Highlights (2016 – 2036) ..............................................................................................1 Review of 2015 ...........................................................................................................................3 Glossary of Acronyms .................................................................................................................4 Acknowledgements .....................................................................................................................5 FAA Aerospace Forecasts ..........................................................................................................6 Economic Environment........................................................................................................... 7 U.S. Airlines............................................................................................................................ 9 Domestic Market ................................................................................................................. 9 International Market ...........................................................................................................15 Cargo .................................................................................................................................19 General Aviation ....................................................................................................................21 FAA Operations .....................................................................................................................26 U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................28 Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................30 Education, Outreach, and Research ..................................................................................30 Exemptions and Authorizations ..........................................................................................30 Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast ................................................................................30 Commercial Forecast .........................................................................................................31 Commercial Space Transportation ........................................................................................34 Risks to the Forecast .............................................................................................................39 Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................43 Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................43 Alternative Forecasts .............................................................................................................47 Enplanements ....................................................................................................................47 Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................48 Available Seat Mile ............................................................................................................48 Load Factor .......................................................................................................................49 Yield ..................................................................................................................................50 Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy .......................................................................................55 Appendix C: Forecast Tables ...................................................................................................57

Forecast Highlights (2016 – 2036) passenger growth in 2016. Although oil prices are projected to fall to around $43 per barrel in 2016, our forecast assumes that they will rise thereafter to exceed $100 by 2023 and $150 by the end of the forecast, keeping a lid on U.S. economic growth during the same period. There are a number of headwinds that are buffeting the global economy – the fall in oil prices, recession in Russia and Brazil and inconsistent performance in other emerging economies, a “hard landing” in China, and lack of further stimulus in the advanced economies. The uncertainty over the future course of oil prices is just one more item on the list. Although the U.S. economy has managed to avoid a recession, a prolonged period of faster economic growth (e.g. > 3%) may not be forthcoming.

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility that was associated with these cycles was thought by many to be a structural feature of an industry that was capital intensive but cash poor. However the great recession of 2007-09 marked a fundamental change in the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. Air carriers fine-tuned their business models to minimize losses by lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated new services that customers were willing to purchase and started charging separately for services that were historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The industry experienced an unprecedented period of consolidation with four major mergers in five years. These changes along with capacity discipline exhibited by carriers have resulted in a fifth consecutive year of profitability for the industry in 2015. Looking ahead there is optimism that the industry has been transformed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.

System traffic in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.6 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.1 percent a year while International RPMs are forecast to grow almost twice as fast at 3.5 percent a year. U.S. carrier system capacity measure in available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is getting bigger, especially in the regional jet market, where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2023, replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.

As the economy recovers from the most serious economic downturn since World War II and the slowest expansion in recent history, aviation will continue to grow over the long run. Fundamentally, over the medium and long term, demand for aviation is driven by economic activity. The 2016 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.1 percent per year, slightly faster than last year’s forecast. The sharp decline in the price of oil in 2015 is a catalyst for a short lived uptick in

Although the U.S. and global economy continued to sputter in 2015, stable demand and lower energy prices resulted in record profits for U.S. airlines. U.S. carrier profitability should remain steady or increase as the recovery leads to strengthening demand 1

turbine, rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours.

and increased revenues, while lower energy prices keep operating costs in check. Over the long term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing U.S. economy.

With increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased activity growth which has the potential to increase controller workload. Operations at FAA and contract towers are forecast to increase 0.9 percent a year over the forecast period with commercial activity growing at five times the rate of noncommercial activity. The growth in U.S. airline and business aviation activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see much faster increases than small and non-hub airports, largely due to the commercial nature of their operations.

The long term outlook for general aviation is favorable, led by gains in turbine aircraft activity. The active general aviation fleet is forecast to increase 0.2 percent a year between 2015 and 2036, equating to an absolute increase in the fleet of about 7,000 units. While steady growth in both GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston aircraft continues to shrink over the forecast. Although fleet growth is minimal, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 1.2 percent per year through 2036, as growth in

2

Review of 2015 as Spirit and Allegiant led to a 1.6 percent decline. International yield fell 4.8 percent, impacted by weak demand and currency fluctuations. Despite falling yields U.S. airlines posted record profits in FY 2015 as falling energy prices more than offset revenue weakness from falling yields. Data for FY 2015 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating profit of $24.1 billion (compared to a $14.9 billion operating profit for FY 2014). The network carriers reported combined operating profits of $17.3 billion while the low cost carriers reported combined operating profits of $6.0 billion, with all carriers posting profits.

Despite slow economic growth at home and abroad, 2015 was a pretty good year for U.S. aviation. Stable demand, falling yields, and falling costs added up to a year of record profits for the U.S. airline industry. The shift in focus from market share to boosting returns on invested capital has resulted in something the industry has rarely seen – sustained profitability. The U.S. airline industry has become more nimble in adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or minimize losses. U.S. airlines continue to refine strategies for developing additional revenue streams such as charging fees for services that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for charging for services that were not previously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock fees). The impact from these initiatives gives reason for optimism as the industry (passenger and cargo carriers combined) posted profits for the sixth consecutive year in 2015.

The general aviation market showed continuing improvements in single engine piston and business jet segments, while declines in turboprop and multi-engine piston segments translated into a downturn in shipments. Overall deliveries were down by 3.1 percent in calendar year (CY) 2015; even though U.S. billings increased 2.4 percent to $12.0 billion. General aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports recorded a 0.3 percent decline in 2015 as itinerant activity fell 0.7 percent, more than offsetting a 0.1 percent increase in local operations.

Demand for air travel in 2015 grew at the fastest pace since 2007 despite modest economic growth in the U.S. In 2015 system revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 3.8 percent as enplanements increased at the same rate. Domestic RPMs were up 4.8 percent while enplanements were up by 4.2 percent. International RPMs increased by just 2.2 percent as enplanements, negatively impacted by the slowdown in China, recession in Brazil and Russia, and exchange rate fluctuations, increased only 1.6 percent. The system-wide load factor fell 0.1 points to 83.3 percent.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers rose in 2015 by 0.2 percent, the first increase in activity since 2007. Air carrier activity increased by 5.7 percent, more than offsetting declines in the air taxi, general aviation, and military categories. Activity at large hubs rose by 0.7 percent, while medium hub activity increased by 0.6 percent. Small/non-hub airport activity was flat in 2015 compared to the prior year.

Yields fell for the first time in five years. In domestic markets, falling oil prices and rapid expansion by ultra-low cost carriers such 3

Glossary of Acronyms Acronym ASMs ATP BVLOS COA COE COMSTAC CY ELI FAA FY GA GAMA GDP GSO ISS LEO LSA MEO NAS NASA NGSO NPRM PCE RAC RPMs RTMs sUAS TRACON TRB UAS USD

Term Available Seat Miles Air Transport Pilot Beyond Visual Line of Sight Certificate of Operation Authorization Certificate of Excellence Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee Calendar Year Elliptical Earth Orbit Federal Aviation Administration Fiscal Year General Aviation General Aviation Manufacturers Association Gross Domestic Product Geosynchronous Orbit International Space Station Low Earth Orbit Light Sport Aircraft Medium Earth Orbit National Airspace System National Aeronautics and Space Administration Non-Geosynchronous Orbit Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking Personal Consumption Expenditure Refiners’ Acquisition Cost Revenue Passenger Miles Revenue Ton Miles Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s) Terminal Radar Approach Control Transportation Research Board Unmanned Aircraft System(s) United States Dollar

4

Acknowledgements This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The following people may be contacted for further information: Section Economic Environment

Contact Name Roger Schaufele

Phone Number (202) 267-3306

Roger Schaufele Katherine Lizotte

(202) 267-3306 (202) 267-3302

Nick Miller

(202) 267-3309

General Aviation • Forecasts • Survey data

H. Anna Barlett H. Anna Barlett

(202) 267-4070 (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures • Forecasts • Data

Roger Schaufele Roger Schaufele

(202) 267-3306 (202) 267-3306

Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Michael Lukacs

(202) 267-9641

Commercial Space

Mary Carolyn Thies Becker

(202) 267-8863

APO Websites • Forecasts and statistical publications

http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics

Commercial Air Carriers • Passenger

•

•

Cargo

APO databases

Email for APO staff

http://aspm.faa.gov First name.last [email protected]

5

FAA Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2016-2036

6

Economic Environment time soon. In emerging markets, China is moving into a period of slower growth as 2015 was the slowest year since 1990 as the economy begins the transition from an export and manufacturing based economy to one that is more oriented towards the service and technology sectors. In 2015 real GDP in India grew an impressive 7.5% but was lacking balance as exports and investment led while private consumption lagged. Other emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia were in recession in 2015 and are not expected to see growth until 2017.

In the near term, IHS Global Insight projects that world economic growth will remain subpar, below 3% a year for the next two years. While growth remains sluggish to steady for the United States and Europe, the rest of the world is struggling and will continue to do so. In the United States, consumer spending is solid, fueled by lower oil prices and steady job growth while in 2015 Europe saw its best performance since 2011 as central bank stimulus and low oil and commodity prices provided the basis for growth. Japan’s economy contracted in late 2015 and shows few signs of robust recovery any

India and China led World Economic Growth in 2015

Annual Percent Change

10.0 8.0

7.5

6.8

6.0 4.0

2.4

2.0

2.4

1.5 0.5

0.0 -2.0 -4.0

-3.2

-6.0

India

China

U.S.

Eurozone

Japan

Brazil

-4.0

Russia

World

Source: IHS Global Insight

America, and Eastern Europe. Growth in the more mature economies will be lower than the global trend with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by Europe. Growth in Japan is projected to be very slow with rates below 1% a year reflecting deep structural issues associated with a shrinking and aging population.

IHS Global Insight forecasts world real GDP to grow at 2.9 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. Emerging markets are forecast to grow above the global average but at lower rates than in the early 2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India and China, is projected to have the fastest growth followed by Middle East and Africa, Latin 7

Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth Annual GDP % growth 2016-2036 China

5.0

M.E. & Africa

3.8

Asia ex China

3.3

World

2.9

Latin America

2.9

Emerging Europe

2.9

U.S.

2.3

Eurozone

1.5

Japan

0.8

Source: IHS Global Insight, Dec 2015 World Forecast

traction, and IHS Global Insight forecasts the price of oil to reach $100 per barrel by 2023 and continue to rise modestly thereafter to $152 by 2036.

Oil prices fell by 42% in 2015 to around $57 per barrel and are projected to fall another 24% in 2016 to $43 per barrel. However, the long run trend in oil prices is upward due to growing demand and higher costs of ex-

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost $ Per Barrel of Oil

$160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

Fiscal Year Source: IHS Global Insight

8

2024

2028

2032

2036

U.S. Airlines Domestic Market Mainline and regional carriers 1 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is confined to the border markets in Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Twenty-nine all-cargo carriers were providing domestic and/or international air cargo service at the end of 2015.

ther mergers among these four due to antitrust regulations. In 2005 there were twelve major mainline airlines. The mergers and increasing market presence of low cost carriers like Frontier, JetBlue and Southwest have had clear implications on the fares, size of the aircraft being used and the load factors, topics that will be discussed later in this document.

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier industry are three distinct trends: (1) industry consolidation and restructuring; (2) continued capacity discipline in response to external shocks, and (3) the proliferation of ancillary revenues.

One of the most striking outcomes of industry restructuring has been the unprecedented period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 and 2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the events of September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.6 percent above the FY 2000 level. However, U.S. domestic ASMS are still down 1.2 percent when compared to 2007 as the industry responded first to the sharp rise in oil prices (up 155% between 2004 and 2008) and then the global recession that followed (2009 to the present). 2015 is the first year showing strong growth in ASMs (4.6 percent) since 2004.

The restructuring and consolidation of the U.S. airline industry that began in the aftermath of the terror attacks of September 11, 2011 continued in 2015. American and US Airways combined their networks and reservations systems to form the world’s largest airline with the last U.S. Airways flight occurring in October 2015. Consequently, there are now only four dominant airlines in the U.S. – American, Delta, Southwest, and United – controlling approximately 70% of the domestic market as measured by revenue passenger miles. It is highly unlikely the U.S. Government will approve any fur-

The reduction in domestic capacity since 2007 has not been shared equally between the mainline carriers and their regional counterparts. To better match demand to capacity, the mainline carriers contracted out “thin” routes to their regional counterparts because they could provide lift at a lower cost, or else they simply removed the capacity altogether. In 2015, the mainline

1

Mainline carriers are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more seats. Regionals are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the mainline carriers.

9

The regional market has continued to shrink as the regionals compete for even fewer contracts with the remaining dominant carriers; this has meant slow growth in enplanements and yields.

carrier group provided 0.9 percent less capacity than it did in 2007 (but carried 2.1 percent more passengers thus load factors increased). Capacity flown by the regional group has shrunk by 3.0 percent over the same period (with passengers carried down 2.1 percent).

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Enplanements (millions)

1,200 1,000 223 206

800

177

168

600

153

190

154

400 572

658

543

623

706

2015E

2016

2020

2024

2028

765

2032

829

200 Fiscal Year Mainline

10

Regional

2036

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield 25.0 22.5

Revenue Per Mile (¢)

20.0

21.0 19.8 18.7

18.4 17.5 16.5

16.4

15.0

15.4

14.7

14.4 12.3

10.0

13.7 12.0

5.0

2015E

2016

2020

2024 Fiscal Year

Mainline

2028

2032

2036

Regionals

This includes the un-bundling of services previously included in the ticket price such as checked bags and on-board meals, and by adding new services such as boarding priority and internet access. As noted earlier, U.S. passenger carriers posted record net profits for the sixth consecutive year in 2015 with ancillary revenues a contributing factor to the favorable outcome as well as very low oil prices. Airlines are also increasingly experimenting with segmenting their cabins into more discreet cost categories based on comfort amenities like seat pitch, leg room, and access to social media and outlets.

The regionals have less leverage with the mainline carriers than they have had in the past as the mainline carriers have negotiated contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing large pilot shortages and tighter regulations regarding pilot training. Their capital costs have increased in the short-term as they continue to replace their 50 seat regional jets with more fuel efficient 70 seat jets. This move to the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the future however since their unit costs are lower. Another continuing trend is that of ancillary revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers.

U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of domestic departures continued the downward trend that started in 2008 while ASMs,

11

RPMs and enplanements all showed a rebound; these trends underlie the expanding size of aircraft and higher load factors. 2 In 2015, the domestic load factor reached a historic high of 84.5 for commercial air carriers. It is presently assumed that the load factor will not exceed 86.5 in the future due to the logistical difficulties inherent in matching supply perfectly with demand.

2

Commercial airlines encompass both mainline and regional carriers.

12

6.0

87.0

5.0

86.5 86.0

4.0 85.5 3.0 85.0

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Market

2.0 84.5 1.0

84.0

0.0

83.5 2015E

2018 ASMs

2021

2024 2027 Fiscal Year

RPMs

Enplanements

2030

2033

2036

Load Factor

gional carriers carried 1.1 percent fewer passengers.

System, that is, the sum of domestic plus international capacity, increased 3.9 percent to 1.066 trillion ASMs in 2015 while RPMs increased 3.8 percent to 889.1 billion. During the same period system-wide enplanements increased 3.8 percent to 785.8 million. In 2015, U.S. carriers prioritized the domestic over the international market in terms of allocating capacity. It is forecast that this allocation will continue into 2016 but carriers will start expanding capacity in the international market starting in 2017 and remain focused on that growth market through 2036 as the domestic market continues to mature.

In the domestic market, mainline enplanements saw an increase for the fifth consecutive year, up 5.6 percent, marking the first time since 2000 that the industry recorded five consecutive years of passenger growth in the domestic market. Mainline passengers in international markets posted a sixth year of growth, up 2.4 percent. Even though the recession was officially over in June 2009, carriers continued to face demand uncertainty in 2015 as wages continued to stagnate, household income growth was weak, the housing market’s recovery was patchy across the country, and government spending at the federal and local levels remained stagnant and are pro-

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in the combined domestic and international market was 5.1 percent in 2015 while re-

13

ed in U.S. carriers finishing up 2015 with a strong net profit.

jected to remain so for the next few years. Despite these dire statistics, the unemployment rate fell and consumer spending was up and many urban housing markets have been revived strongly. In such an uneven, but slowly improving, environment, industry capacity growth was restrained (up 3.9 percent), after only a 2.3 percent increase in 2014. Higher airfares and ancillary revenues, coupled with falling fuel prices result-

System load factor and trip length remained flat in 2015, even as seats per aircraft mile increased by 2.4 percent; again reflecting the trend towards using larger aircraft. Seats per aircraft mile system wide increased to 149.1 seats (up 3.5 seats per aircraft mile), the highest level since 1994.

14

International Market RPMs and ASMs at an average annual rate (FY 2017-2036) of 3.6%, 3.5%, and 3.5% respectively.

The international market continues to be the growth segment for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market, especially since FY 2004. Last year, 2015, was an exception to the trend and 2016 is expected to follow suit as airlines continue to focus on the domestic market. Starting in 2017 the international market (comprised of mainline and regional carriers) should again start outpacing the domestic market in terms of enplanements,

While the financial situation across the world has weakened somewhat, lower fares enabled by falling oil prices and more efficient aircraft has boosted demand; at least in the short term. It is possible that historically low oil prices signal further weakening in the global economy and thus, lower travel demand in the future.

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements Annual Growth Rate (%)

15.0 10.0 5.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) 2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

Fiscal Year Domestic Market

15

International Market

2031

2036

U.S. Carriers - RPMs Annual Growth Rate (%)

20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) 2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2031

2036

Fiscal Year Domestic Market

International Market

U.S. Carriers - ASMs Annual Growth Rate (%)

15.0 10.0 5.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) 2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

Fiscal Year Domestic

International capacity restraint and the load factor is expected to stabilize around 81.8%. Load factors this high were last seen in 2013.

The next five years will feature a rebuilding of international demand by the U.S. carriers with moderate growth averaging around 3.6, 3.5, and 3.5 for enplanements, RPMs, and ASMs respectively. Airlines will exercise 16

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers International Market

Annual Percent Change

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2015E

2018

2021 ASMs

2024 2027 Fiscal Year RPMs

Overall however, U.S. carrier market share of international passengers has been dropping in all regions with the exception of the

2030

2033

2036

Enplanements

Caribbean, Oceania and Central America. It is expected that these trends will continue.

U.S. Carrier Enplanement Market Share by Region 100% Caribbean

90%

Mexico

% of Market Share

80%

Central America

70%

South America

60%

All Countries Canada

50%

Africa

40%

Europe

30%

Asia Oceania

20%

Middle East

10% 2011

2012

2013

2014

Calendar Year

17

2015

Total Passengers To/From the U.S. American and Foreign Flag Carriers 500 450 59

Millions of Passengers

400 51

350 45

300 39

250 200

34

150

29 35

29 36

100

73

77

50

69

72

85

2015

2016

2020

68

60 168

51 142

43 87

77

121 102

98

113

129

148

0

Atlantic*

2024 2028 2032 2036 Calendar Year L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada * Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.

grow approximately 3.8% per year from 2016-2036 for all carriers, the majority of travel demand in that region will be intraAsian.

For U.S. carriers, Latin America is still the largest international destination despite the recent economic and political crises of Brazil. While 2014 saw 7.5% growth, 2015 still showed a very robust 5.1% increase. In contrast, the Pacific region saw 0% enplanement growth and the Atlantic region saw a drop of 1.3%. It is expected that the Latin American market will continue to be the growth market for travel to and from the U.S.

Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are mature and will experience enplanement growth of 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively, on average over the twenty year period for all carriers. It is unclear at this time if the Syrian refugee crisis and terrorism threats will affect travel demand in 2016 and beyond.

Despite the economic powerhouses of China, Japan and South Korea, the Pacific region remains a relatively small market for the U.S. and will remain so for the next twenty years. While travel to the US will

Despite the recent economic downturn in Latin America, it is still the largest driver of international demand to the U.S. Mexico, the most popular destination, is forecast to 18

experience 4.2% annual growth from 20162036 for all carriers whereas the entire re-

gion is forecast to grow 4.0%

Cargo a shift from air to other modes (especially truck), use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, and the increased use of mail substitutes (e.g. e-mail, cloud-based services).

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international freight/express and mail. The demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative shipping modes such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars.

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most of the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will be tied to economic growth.

U.S. air carriers flew 35.9 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2015, up 2.2 percent from 2014 with domestic cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) increasing 3.3 percent to 13.1 billion while international RTMs increased by 1.6 percent to 22.9 billion. Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 78.1 percent of total RTMs in 2015, with passenger carriers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers increased 1.8 percent in 2015 while total RTMs flown by passenger carriers grew by 3.6 percent.

The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of domestic cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of international cargo RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions.

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can be divided into four components consisting of Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ In 2015 total international RTMs increased 1.6 percent to 22.9 billion as growth in the Pacific region offset declines in the other three regions.

After increasing by 2.2 percent in 2015, total RTMs are forecast to grow 4.5 percent in 2016 and driven by steady U.S. and world economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent for the balance of the forecast period.

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo growth are fuel price volatility, movement of real yields, and globalization. Significant structural changes have occurred in the air cargo industry; among these are air cargo security regulations by the FAA and TSA, maturation of the domestic express market,

Domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 1.9 percent in 2016 as the U.S. economic recovery continues after posting a 3.3 increase in 2015. Between 2016 and 2036, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 0.4 19

of 4.7 percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP with the Pacific region having the fastest growth, followed by the Other International, Atlantic, and Latin regions, respectively.

percent. In 2015, all-cargo carriers carried 89.2 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The all-cargo share is forecast to grow to 90.8 percent by 2036 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers and ongoing security considerations.

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 49.3 percent in 2000 to 71.8 percent in 2015. Continuing the trend experienced over the past decade, the all-cargo share of international RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly to 78.1 percent by 2036.

International cargo RTMs grew 1.6 percent in 2015 after posting a 0.3 percent increase in 2014 as stagnation in Europe and a slowdown in China’s economic growth slowed worldwide trade. Growth is expected to rebound in 2016 to 6.0 percent as global trade growth resumes. For the forecast period (2016-36) international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average

20

General Aviation The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization rates from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new aircraft deliveries, which use the data from General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), together with assumptions of retirement rates, produce growth rates of the fleet by aircraft categories, which are applied to the GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts are carried out for “active aircraft,” 3 not total aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including four Transportation Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted annually in May and January.

2010. While the single engine piston aircraft deliveries by U.S. manufacturers continued to grow and business jet deliveries recorded a very modest increase compared to the previous year, turboprop deliveries were down by 10 percent, and much smaller category of multi-engine piston deliveries declined 40 percent. Based on figures released by GAMA, U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 1,581 aircraft in CY 2015, 3.1 percent fewer than CY 2014. This was the first decline after four years of growth in shipments that showed first signs of slowing down in 2014. Single engine piston deliveries increased by 3.4 percent in 2015, but the decrease in multiengine piston shipments caused a 0.6 percent decrease in overall piston airplane deliveries. In the turbine categories, turbojet deliveries were up by 0.8 percent. With the 10.0 percent decline in turboprop deliveries, total turbine shipments went down by 5.3 percent in 2015.

The results of the 2014 GA Survey, the latest available, were consistent with the results of surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The 2014 Survey recorded the first increase to the GA fleet since 2007, particularly since the implementation of 2010 Rule for ReRegistration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration. The active GA fleet was estimated as 204,408 aircraft in 2014 (up 2.2 percent from 2013), with 23.3 million hours flown (up 1.7 percent from 2013). In 2015, the general aviation industry experienced its first decline in deliveries since

3

An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.

21

General Aviation U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings

Shipments 3,500

Billings ($B) $16

3,000

$14 $12

2,500

$10 2,000 $8 1,500 $6 1,000

$4

500

$2 $0

2006 Source: GAMA

2007

2008

2009

2010 2011 2012 Calendar Year

Shipments

2013

2014

2015

Billings ($ Billion)

forecast period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 2.5 percent a year.

GAMA and industry experts also reported significant decreases in rotorcraft deliveries in 2015, particularly resulting from direct and indirect effects of oil price declines.

While steady growth in GDP and long term corporate profits impacts continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing piston aircraft is predicted to shrink over the forecast period by 17,500 aircraft (at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent).

Against these current conditions, the long term outlook for general aviation, driven by turbine aircraft activity, remains favorable. The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent over the 21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 203,880 in 2015 to 210,695 aircraft by 2036. The more expensive and sophisticated turbinepowered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow by 15,600 aircraft -- at an average rate of 2.1 percent a year over the

On the other hand, currently the smallest category, light-sport-aircraft, which was created in 2005, is forecast to grow by 4.5 percent annually, adding about 3,900 new aircraft by 2036, nearly tripling its 2014 fleet size.

22

Active General Aviation Aircraft 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2006

2016

2026

2036

Calendar Year

Fixed Wing Piston

Fixed Wing Turbine

LSA

Experimental

Rotorcraft

cast period. Jet aircraft are expected to account for most of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent over the forecast period. The large increases in jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with continuing increase in utilization rates, as indicated by the GA Survey.

Moderate fleet growth also impacts the number of general aviation hours flown, projected to increase an average of 1.2 percent per year through 2036. Following the decline in piston fleet, fixed wing piston hours are forecast to decrease by 0.6 percent. Countering this trend, hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 2.6 percent yearly over the fore-

23

General Aviation Hours Flown (in thousands) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006

2016

2026

2036

Calendar Year Fixed Wing Piston

Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft

LSA

Experimental

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily impacted by the previous economic downturn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, faces the challenges brought by lower oil prices. They impact utilization rates and new aircraft orders both directly through decreasing activity in oil exploration, and also through associated slowdown in related economic activity. Rotorcraft hours are projected to grow by 2.5 percent annually over the forecast period.

the end of 2015. While private and commercial pilot categories kept their declining trends, student pilot certificates continued to increase. One regulatory change that affected the number of student pilot certificates was the 2010 rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 months to 60 months. Since 2011, the student pilot numbers have been rising and reached 122,729 in 2015.

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 5.0 percent a year in hours flown, primarily driven by growth in the fleet.

Another change in the legislation impacted commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled airline) flight crew members would hold an ATP certificate by August 2013. The airline pilots holding a commercial pilot certificate and mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center. There were 590,039 active pilots certificated by FAA at 24

is forecast to increase by 13,600 (up 0.4 percent annually). The student pilots are forecast to increase by 0.3 percent and much smaller category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 4.8 percent annually over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private and commercial pilot certificates are projected to decrease by 0.6 percent yearly until 2036.

longer operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data showed a faster decline in commercial pilot numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of increase in ATP certificates. The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding ATPs) is projected to decrease about 5,000 (down 0.1 percent yearly) over the forecast period, while the ATP category

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2006

2016

2026

2036

Calendar Year Students

Sport Pilot

Private Pilot

Commercial Pilot

Air Transport Pilots

Rotorcraft only

25

FAA Operations The growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive growth in operations at FAA facilities over the forecast period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers is forecast to increase at an average rate of 0.9 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. Commercial operations 4 at these facilities are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year, 5 times faster than non-commercial operations. The growth in commercial operations is less than the growth in U.S. airline passenger traffic (1.5 percent vs 2.0 percent) over the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and higher load factors. Both of these trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more passengers without increasing the number of flights. General aviation operations (which accounted for 52% of operations in 2015) are forecast to increase an average of 0.3 percent a year as increases in turbine powered activity more than offset declines in piston activity.

FAA & Contract Tower Operations Operations (000)

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

2006

2016 2026 Fiscal Year

Commercial

2036

Non Commercial

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations 5 are forecast to grow slightly faster than at towered facilities. This is in part a reflection of the different mix of activity at Tracons. Total operations are forecast to increase an average of 1.1 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. Commercial operations accounted for approximately 59 percent of Tracon operations in 2015 and are projected to grow 1.5 percent a year over the forecast period. General aviation activity at these facilities is projected to grow only 0.4 percent a year over the forecast. Activity at FAA En-Route Centers is measured by the number of IFR aircraft handled.

5

Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR overflights.

4

Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi categories.

26

In 2015, aircraft handled at FAA En-Route Centers increased 1.4 percent, led by increases in the Air Carrier and General Aviation categories. Growth in airline traffic and business aviation is expected to lead to increases in activity at En-Route centers. Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at En-Route centers are forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.4 percent a year as increases in Air Carrier and General Aviation activity offset declines in Air Taxi activity. Activity at En-Route centers is forecast to grow much faster than activity at towered airports because more of the activity at EnRoute centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is local in nature, and does not impact the centers.

En-Route Center Aircraft Handled

AC Handled (000)

60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2006

2016 2026 Fiscal Year

Commercial

27

2036

Non Commercial

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet aircraft) between 2015 and 2022. Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older small turboprop and piston aircraft, while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the E-2 family after 2020. By 2025 only a handful of 50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 2036, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 1,786, up from 1,628 in 2015. The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to shrink by two-thirds from 516 in 2015 to 175 by 2036. These aircraft account for just 8.9 percent of the fleet in 2036, down from 24.1 percent in 2015.

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 6,871 in 2015 to 8.414 in 2036, an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent a year. Increased demand for air travel and growth in air cargo is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets. Between 2015 and 2036 the number of jets in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to grow from 3,946 to 5,339, an average of 66 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including Eseries aircraft at American and JetBlue) is projected to grow 51 aircraft a year as carriers replace the 757 fleet and current technology 737 and A320 family aircraft with the next generation MAX and Neo families. The wide-body fleet grows by an average of 15 aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases by 60 percent over the forecast period.

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is forecast to increase from 781 aircraft in 2015 to 1,114 aircraft in 2036 driven by the growth in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by 2 aircraft a year as 757’s and 737’s are converted from passenger use to cargo service. The wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 14 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 767-300, and 777-200 aircraft are added to the fleet, replacing older MD-11 and 767200 freighters.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to decline from 2,144 aircraft in 2015 to 1,961 in 2036 as the fleet shrinks by 21 percent (448

28

U.S. Carrier Fleet 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2006

2016 2026 Calendar Year

Mainline NB

Mainline WB

Cargo Jet

Regionals

29

2036

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Exemptions and Authorizations

An Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) is the unmanned aircraft (UA) and its associated elements (including communication links and the components that control the unmanned aircraft) that are required for the safe and efficient operation of the unmanned aircraft in the national airspace system (NAS). The forecast will be driven by a combination of an improved regulatory environment and underlying demand. In 2015, unprecedented milestones were achieved for UAS. The FAA is continuing to enable this new thriving industry to flourish while maintaining safety.

Section 333 of the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 grants the Secretary of Transportation the authority to determine whether an airworthiness certification is required for certain UAS to operate safely in the NAS. This determination is based on the size, weight, speed, and operational capabilities of the aircraft. Using the FAA’s exemption process, a safety evaluation is conducted, and appropriate conditions and limitations for the operation are imposed through each exemption granted. As of March 16, 2016, over 4,000 exemptions have been granted for commercial UAS operations in the United States under the Section 333 authority. This demonstrates considerable potential demand for UAS operations, in low-risk, controlled environments. In addition, commercial UAS operations must be conducted in accordance with a Certificate of Authorization or Waiver (COA) issued by the FAA Air Traffic Organization. The COA describes the specific operating areas approved for UAS operations and associated mitigations that help to ensure the safety of the NAS.

Education, Outreach, and Research The FAA is partnering with several industry associations for the “Know Before You Fly” educational campaign. This outreach promotes the safe and responsible use of unmanned aircraft as they become integrated into the NAS. The FAA also developed and made available an app, B4UFLY which provides UAS operators with pertinent airspace requirements and restrictions before operating. Six FAA-selected UAS test site operators are providing information on system safety, data gathering, aircraft certification, command and control link issues, control station layout and certification, ground and airborne sense and avoid, and environmental impacts. In addition, a team led by Mississippi State University has been identified as the FAA's Center of Excellence for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (COE UAS). The COE will focus on research, education, and training in areas critical to safe and successful integration of UAS into the nation's airspace.

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast In order to operate in the NAS, the FAA must ensure that aircraft operators are not only aware of the system in which they are operating, but that the agency also has a means to identify owners. One means to accomplish this is through aircraft registration and marking. On December 14, 2015, the FAA issued a rule requiring all UAS weighing more than 0.55 pounds (250 grams) and less than 55 pounds to be registered using a new on-line system (UAS weighing more than 55 pounds must be reg30

units below the registration size cutoff of 250 grams. For this interim final rule, in 2016, we forecast 1.9 million potential annual sales and that number could increase to 4.3 million units sold annually by 2020. As shown in the first row of the table below, this would represent the upper bound of the potential number of small UAS operated as model or hobby aircraft.

istered using the existing Aircraft Registration Process). This registration rule will aid in investigations and allow the FAA to gather data about UAS use. As of mid-March, 2016 there have been over 408,000 registrations.

As shown in the following table, a sales forecast was developed for the small UAS registration rule, which included very small Sales Forecast Summary Million sUAS Units

Hobbyist (model aircraft) Commercial (non-model aircraft)

2016 1.9 0.6 2.5

2017 2.3 2.5 4.8

2018 2.9 2.6 5.5

2019 3.5 2.6 6.1

2020 4.3 2.7 7.0

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding

Commercial Forecast

ment accompanying the final rule publication.

In 2015, in support of the small UAS registration rule, a sales forecast for commercial UAS was developed to derive the potential demand for the new on-line registration system. That forecast represents the high end of the small UAS commercial fleet. As summarized in the second row of the previous table, for 2016, the potential sales of commercial small UAS requiring registration was forecast to be over 600,000, growing to 2.7 million by 2020.

The FAA is working with the Teal Group Corporation, an industry expert in UAS forecasting, to develop a commercial forecast for small UAS operations described in the NPRM. The civil and commercial UAS market will take time to develop and the size of the market will directly relate to the specific requirements developed along with airspace accessibility. The Teal Group has provided the FAA with a forecast for small commercial unmanned aircraft. This forecast analyzes the market demand for different sectors within the regulatory environment.

On February 23, 2015, the FAA issued the Operation and Certification of Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) proposing to amend its regulations to adopt specific rules for the operation of small UAS in the NAS. Over 4,600 public comments were submitted in response to the NPRM. The FAA expects to publish a final rule in late spring of 2016. More information on the derivation and assumptions behind this forecast will be provided in the Regulatory Impact Assess-

As shown in the graph below, it is expected that, once the final small UAS rule is implemented, two different categories of small UAS (sUAS) will emerge. Higher end sUAS will have an average sales price of $40,000 per unit, while lower end units will have an average price of $2,500. Over a five year period, Teal Group forecasts the sUAS fleet to be approximately 542,500.

31

sUAS Fleet 600,000

542,500

500,000 400,000

352,000

300,000 196,000

200,000 101,300

100,000 32,800

Higher end UAS Lower end UAS Total Fleet

2016 1,300 31,500 32,800

2017 6,300 95,000 101,300

2018 16,000 180,000 196,000

2019 32,000 320,000 352,000

2020 52,000 490,500 542,500

than they are today. The total fleet shown in the previous table is expected to satisfy the market for the top five industries that will employ the use of sUAS.

Of this estimated fleet, it is expected that roughly 90% of the demand will satisfied by the lower end units. The number of small UAS forecasted is highly uncertain and is dependent on the regulatory structure ultimately adopted. Once a final rule for small UAS is published, they will become more commercially viable

32

Top Five sUAS Markets Government 2%

Real Estate/ Aerial Photography 22% Industrial Inspection 42%

Insurance 15% Agriculture 19%

framework is enabled for BVLOS operations, the projected market sizes could be higher than the forecast

Looking beyond existing regulatory initiatives, FAA has developed the UAS Focus Area Pathfinders initiative. This initiative explores how UAS might be safely used in populated areas, how UAS flights outside the pilot's direct vision might allow greater UAS use in rural areas, and some of the command-and-control challenges of using UAS beyond visual line of sight in rural/isolated areas. The overall demand for commercial UAS will soar once regulations more easily enable beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) operations and operations of multiple UA by a single pilot. Once a

Venture capitalists are already investing considerable amounts of money into this emerging industry with the intention to build early market share in this technology. Manufacturers’ efforts are focused on building systems optimized for particular segments of the market. Unmanned aircraft systems will be the most dynamic growth sector within aviation. The FAA will continue to work with industry and stakeholders to safely integrate UAS into the NAS.

33

Commercial Space Transportation satellites to NGSO, such as low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), elliptical (ELI) orbits, and external (EXT) trajectories beyond orbits around the Earth.

The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) have prepared forecasts of global demand for commercial space launches in 2015 through 2024.

Report projects an average of 17 commercial GSO launches for 2015 through 2017 and 13.1 NGSO launches for 2014 through 2013. The chart below shows the combined GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast. It reflects the three year GSO forecast outlook. The table below shows the number of GSO and NGSO payloads and launches projected from 2015 and 2024.

The 2015 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts report (the Report) is in two sections: 1)

The COMSTAC 2015 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Forecast, which projects demand for commercial satellites that operate in GSO and the resulting commercial launch demand to GSO. As a result of the realignment of issuances dates of the Report, this year’s GSO Launch Demand Forecast only considers the three-year outlook; and

It is important to distinguish between forecast demand and the number of satellites actually launched. Launch vehicle and satellite programs are complex, and susceptible to delays, which generally makes the forecast demand for launches the upper limit of actual launches in the near-term forecast.

2) The FAA’s 2015 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for NonGeosynchronous Orbits (NGSO),which projects commercial launch demand for

34

Combined 2015 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecasts

Commercial Space Transportation Payload and Launch Forecasts 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total Avg. Payloads GSO Forecast (COMSTAC)

24

25

26

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

25.0*

NGSO Forecast (FAA)

65

136

151

104

92

92

87

86

87

86

986

98.6

Total Payloads

89

161

177

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Launches GSO Med-to-Heavy

16

17

18

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

NGSO Med-to-Heavy

13

17

15

13

11

10

10

10

10

10

119

11.9

NGSO Small

1

2

4

2

1

0

1

0

1

0

12

1.2

30

36

37

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Total Launches

35

comparably high level – launch contracts that were not open to international (including U.S.) competition – as Chinese and Russian government-owned aerospace companies routinely package satellites, launches, and financing together. The satellite services market is generally robust, and new launch vehicle options will affect the dynamics of the launch industry. Operators are cautious about the impact of the economy on their plans but are generally satisfied with satellite and launch vehicle offerings.

The GSO market remains stable with a projected demand of 25 satellites per year for the period 2015-2017, up from last year’s average for 22.3 for the period 2014-2016. The chart below shows the 2015 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast. Thirty-nine percent of GSO satellites projected to launch from 2015-2017 are in the heaviest mass class (above 5,400 kg). At the same time, seven percent of the satellites in the same period are in the lowest mass class (below 2,500 kg). In 2015, unaddressable launches remained at the

2015 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast

36

Projected NGSO Launches from 2015-2024

the International Space Station, which require medium-to-heavy vehicles. Ninetyone percent of all commercial NGSO launches during the forecast period will launch on medium-to-heavy vehicles. The relatively higher number of small launches is due to Skybox Imaging’s plans to use Minotaur C to deploy its constellation and the first test flights of four newly developed commercial small launch vehicles in 20152017, to be introduced for commercial launch services in the following years. From 2015-2018 the Report forecasts a number of small commercial satellites to be launched as Iridium, ORBCOMM, Planet Labs, and Skybox all deploy their constellations. The number of these multimanifested satellites drops off towards the end of the forecast, but the number of launches remains relatively steady as NASA begins its commercial crew program.

The demand for commercial NGSO launches is expected to be at a comparably high level as major NGSO telecommunication constellations are replenished and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) commercial crew and cargo resupply missions become more regular. The annual average of NGSO commercial launches is expected to grow from an annual average of seven launches a year over the last ten years to about 11.9 launches annually. From 2015-2024, 986 payloads are projected to launch commercially, driving only 131 launches with multi-manifesting, reflecting an industry planning to launch more microand small-class payloads in clusters, instead of increasing the demand for individual launches. The chart above shows the projected NGSO launches for the next ten years. The launches in the next ten years are predominantly commercial launches to 37

For the full study, please visit: https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/Commercial_Space_Trans portation_Forecasts_2015.pdf

38

Risks to the Forecast The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also sees oil price increasing at a more moderate rate than the FAA’s base forecast, as its January 2016 forecast called for oil prices increasing from $35 per barrel in 2016 to only $50.50 per barrel by 2021. Over the long run, lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, including air travel, and should enhance industry profitability.

The forecasts in this document are forecasts of aviation demand, driven by models built on forecasts of economic activity. There are many assumptions in both the economic forecasts and in the FAA models that could impact the degree to which these forecasts are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the economic recovery and any impact resulting from the U.S. government fiscal situation. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years (like the downing of a Russian A321 in the Sinai in October 2015) remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist incident aimed at aviation would have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that would be greater than its impact on overall economic activity.

The baseline forecast assumes that global economic growth will accelerate after 2016, but weakness in certain areas may threaten the strength and sustainability of the expansion. The baseline forecast assumes that China and India will be growth engines for emerging economies as China successfully transitions the economy from reliance on heavy manufacturing and resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India continues to implement reforms to make its economy more competitive. While economic growth appears to be holding up in the U.S., there are concerns about the strength of demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be constrained by structural economic problems (high debt, slow population growth, weak public finances for example). Furthermore, the steps that were taken to stabilize the global economy during the Great Recession have resulted in additional distortions and imbalances. There are concerns that central banks may not raise interest rates in time to contain asset bubbles and inflationary expectations. In advanced economies, governments need to shore up their finances by constraining spending and raising taxes. Given the discomfort many policy makers feel about the measures adopted to

Although oil prices remained below $60 per barrel for most of 2015, the recent volatility reminds us there is still considerable uncertainty as to the future direction of oil prices. The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s December 2015 U.S. macro forecast and 30-Year Focus released during the fourth quarter of 2015) calls for a decline in oil prices in 2016 to $43 per barrel and then rising steadily thereafter, exceeding $75 by 2020, $125 by 2025, and reaches $152 per barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2036. Some forecasters are calling for a more gradual rebound in the price of oil. In January 2016, the World Bank released its latest commodity price forecast. The forecast calls for oil prices to fall to $34 per barrel in 2016, remaining below $60 until 2021, and only exceeding $80 per barrel by 2025. 39

competitive environment in the marketplace. These market consolidating vehicles, particularly the anti-trust immunity provisions, may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If such oversights are launched in the future, this will complicate the evolving structure of the airline industry and may impact demand via new regulations.

combat the Great Recession and uncertainty about the advanced economies’ prospects, there is considerable risk that authorities will either act prematurely or be excessively timid and late in taking necessary steps. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between the United States and other world regions. Any slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously inhibit the growth in global passenger demand.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, network carrier consolidation and new rules on pilot training have left regional carriers saddled with either excess capacity or a lack of pilots. Although air travel demand continues to recover, the bankruptcy filing of Republic Airlines in February 2016 is a reminder that financial pressures on regional operators have not abated. Network carriers continue to make adjustments to the size and breadth of their networks, without providing opportunities for regional carriers to backfill the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well along in its plans to reduce its small (read 50 seat) regional jet fleet and plans to retire another 50 to bring its total to just 125, down from almost 500 at the end of 2009. United has reduced the number of small regional jets flown by its partners from an estimated 380 in 2012 to 242 by the end of 2015 with a target of 100 by 2019. It is adding 85 Embraer 175’s to its partners’ regional fleet to partially replace the reduction in small jet flying. Meanwhile the new American Airways is planning to reduce its small regional jet fleet by 29 aircraft in 2016, after removing 31 in 2015. At the same time the carrier plans to add 49 larger regional jets to its fleet in 2016. While these actions may provide some opportunities for well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact of consolidation so

With the merger of American Airlines and US Airways completed, the outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be rather limited. Based on FY 2015 data, the Big 3 (American, Delta, and United) plus Southwest accounted for more than 76% of the U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic. Of the network carriers, only Alaska remains independent, although it does have code share agreements with both American and Delta. There appears to be little appetite for further consolidation as there are significant obstacles. For many low cost carriers, the sheer size of merger transactions or the amount of financial risk associated with a merger makes further merger activity unlikely. For the network carriers, regulatory authorities are increasing their scrutiny over carrier practices (e.g. Department of Justice investigation into impacts of “capacity discipline” on pricing) suggesting and any future proposed merger will face a less receptive audience than in the past decade. However, U.S. airlines continue to explore other options including global alliances. Many of the major carriers in the U.S. are members of global alliances that operate with some measure of anti-trust immunity from the U.S. DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility for airline operators across borders, it may create an anti40

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at most large hubs expected to increase over the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is changing for this same period. The expected increases in the numbers of regional jets and business jets will increase the impact on the national airspace system and make the FAA’s job more challenging. This change in the mix of aircraft will impact workload strictly due to the increasing demand for aviation services projected over the forecast period.

far has been to reduce opportunities for regional flying substantially. After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and corporate aviation have seen a partial recovery during the past five years. The pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is largely based upon the future prospects of economic growth and corporate profits. Future uncertainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not limited to these factors. Public perception of business and corporate aviation, potential environmental regulations and taxes, along with increased security measures placed on business jets, will place downward pressure on the forecast. On the other hand, while corporate profits are currently high, perceived economic and political uncertainties are causing companies to postpone their purchase of new business aircraft. Translation of this pent-up demand into sales of business jets in the near future can create an upward impact on the forecast. The impact of fuel price decline on business aircraft demand is also uncertain. While a positive effect on corporate profits will increase the demand, revenue losses resulting from low fuel prices may move the demand in the other direction.

While overall activity at FAA and contract towers increased 0.2 percent in 2015, activity at the Core 30 airports increased 0.7 percent in 2015 and delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. airports. FAA forecasts operations at these airports to grow substantially faster than the overall national trend. As demand recovers and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a critical limit to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand and operations would not be achieved.

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition from new entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the industry. The potential easing of regulations on the use of airspace in foreign countries would offer promising scenarios for business jet manufacturers. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, could make corporate jet travel look increasingly appealing.

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on the environment could potentially restrict the ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport expansion or new construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns. There is also an ongoing effort to address the climate impacts of aviation. Aviation currently accounts for 2 to 3 percent of global carbon emissions, but this percentage is expected to increase with the growth 41

in operations unless mitigated with new technologies and standards, renewable fuels, operational improvements and potentially as a gap filler, market based measures. While certain measures to address climate impacts can result in reduced costs, such as increased fuel efficiency, other measures, such as market instruments could pose additional constraints on growth. Energy concerns are also rising, driven by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security issues, and concerns about fossil fuel emissions contributing to global climate change. Lack of progress in improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future fleet may result in more access restrictions or operating limitations on the fleet in service which in turn may depress growth. By contrast, breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and renewable fuels could reduce environmental and energy constraints on the forecast, and enable sustainable growth.

42

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast sees improved business confidence leading to renewed vigor in the labor market, consumer spending, and sustained improvements in the housing sector as well as sustained low consumer prices, higher real personal consumption expenditure, relatively low Brent crude prices, and a high GDP. Furthermore, in the optimistic case, it is assumed that fiscal deficits will diminish substantially in North America, Western Europe, and Japan. In this scenario real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) per capita growth averages 0.4 percentage points faster per year than the baseline forecast 6 and unemployment averages 0.3 points lower on a fiscal year basis than the baseline. 7

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for planning purposes has increased. In order to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA has provides alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and capacity. To create the baseline domestic forecast, economic assumptions from IHS Global Insight’s 10-year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were used. To develop the alternative scenarios, assumptions from IHS Global Insight’s 10-year and 30-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their January 2016 Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook were used were used. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast.

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario; in this forecast, the same assumptions apply as in the optimistic case, only the U.S. economy recovers at a much slower pace and the prices of Brent crude rise higher than in the base case. Moreover, the Eurozone’s recovery will stall and growth in emerging markets will be less robust. Lastly, real PCE per capita grows 0.4 percentage points slower per year than in the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by IHS Global Insight. Thus, the alternative scenarios use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS Global Insight’s Major Trading Partner and Minor Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create a high and low case. Scenario Assumptions The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn and experiences very low oil prices in the short term, suffers no major swings in macro-economic policy, or financial sector collapses.

7

Real personal consumption expenditure per capita and unemployment are used as an input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts of enplanements.

43

0.35 points higher on an annual basis than in the baseline.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Annual Percent Change

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2015

2018

2021

2024 2027 Fiscal Year Pessimistic Baseline

2030

2033

2036

Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

U.S. Population 372

370 355

0.70

345

350 340 330

0.80

364

360

0.60 0.50

334 321

0.90

0.40

324

320

0.30

310

0.20

300

0.10

290

0.00 2015

2016

2020

All scenarios

2024 2028 Fiscal Year

2032

Annual Percent Change

Source: IHS Global Insight

44

2036

Anunal Percent Change

Population ( millions)

380

% of Population Unemployed

U.S. Unemployment Rate 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 2015

2018

2021

2024 2027 Fiscal Year Pessimistic Baseline

2030

2033

2036

Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Price per Barrel ($)

250 200 150 100 50 2015

2018

2021 Pessimistic

2024 2027 Fiscal Year Baseline

2030

2033

2036

Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

line. In the pessimistic case the opposite occurs with energy prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly compared to the baseline.

The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, energy prices, wages, and import prices grow more slowly than in the base-

45

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers 5.0

BLS Index Units*

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2015

2018

2021 Pessimistic

2024 2027 Fiscal Year Baseline

* BLS Units: 1982-84 = 1.00 Source: IHS Global Insight

46

2030 Optimistic

2033

2036

Alternative Forecasts Enplanements are 10.7 percent above the baseline, totaling 1.4 billion, 132 million than in the baseline.

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2016-2036 (with domestic and international passengers up 2.0 and 3.6 percent, respectively).

The pessimistic case is characterized by a period of weakened consumer confidence brought on by persistent unemployment, low consumer demand, and higher inflation. In this scenario enplanements grow an average of 1.7 percent per year (domestic up 1.4 percent and international up 3.6 percent). In the pessimistic case, system passengers in 2036 are 9.8 percent below the baseline case, totaling 1.1 billion, 121 million fewer than in the baseline.

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at a quicker pace, averaging 2.7 percent per year (up 2.6 percent domestically and 3.6 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment, lower inflation, and lower fuel prices which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the end of the forecast period in 2036, system passengers in the optimistic case

Annual Percent Change

System Enplanements 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 (0.5) 2015

2018

2021

2024 2027 Fiscal Year

Pessimistic

Baseline

47

2030

2033

Optimistic

2036

Revenue Passenger Miles mestic and international RPMs up 2.5 and 3.5 percent, respectively).

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent a year over the forecast horizon (2016-2036), with domestic RPMs increasing 2.0 percent annually and international RPMs growing 3.5 percent annually.

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a slower growing economy and higher energy prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.1 percent annually with domestic markets growing 1.4 percent a year while international traffic grows 3.5 percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing economy coupled with lower energy prices drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with growth averaging 2.8 percent per year (do-

System Revenue Passenger Miles Annual Percent Change

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2015

2018

2021

Pessimistic

2024 2027 Fiscal Year Baseline

2030

2033

2036

Optimistic

Available Seat Mile In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 2.9 percent annually system-wide (up 2.7 percent domestically and up 3.4 percent internationally). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline forecast to accommodate increased travel demand

In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 2.5 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 2.1 percent annually in domestic markets and 3.4 percent a year in international markets.

48

capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.2 percent annually (domestic growth of 1.5 percent annually and international up 3.4 percent annually).

brought about by a more favorable economic environment. In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel is lower than in the baseline, thus system

Annual Percent Change

System Available Seat Miles 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2015

2018

2021

2024 2027 Fiscal Year

Pessimistic

Baseline

2030

2033

2036

Optimistic

Load Factor System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three forecast scenarios. In the base case and in the optimistic scenario, system load factor rises from 84.2 percent in 2016 to 84.7 percent and 84.9 in 2036, respectively.

The international load factor forecast is slightly different in the three scenarios, reflecting in part the relative growth in demand and capacity in the three (Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisely meet demand (passengers).

In the base case, international load factor is relatively steady, going from 81.9 percent in 2016 to 81.7 percent in 2036, the same load factor in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

The domestic load factor increases over the forecast horizon from 85.1 percent to 86.5 percent in all scenarios.

49

Yield competition is also assumed in this scenario. In the domestic market, fares are driven lower than baseline levels due to increased levels of competition between low cost and legacy carriers. In the international market, increased competition from growing liberalization puts downward pressure on fares.

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.9 percent annually, going from 13.98 cents in 2016 to 21.17 cents in 2036. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 14.12 cents in 2016 to 22.06 cents in 2036, while international yield rises from 13.66 cents in 2016 to 19.50 cents in 2036.

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 2.5 percent annually, reaching 24.18 cents by 2036 (26.98 cents domestically and 19.52 cents internationally). This scenario reflects higher general inflation and higher energy prices than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital.

System yield rises more slowly in the optimistic case, up 1.8 percent annually to be 20.68 cents at the end of the forecast period. Domestic yield increases to 21.24 cents while international yield increases to 19.50 cents. The slower growth in yield in the high case is due to advancements in technology, gains in productivity, more favorable fuel prices, and lower inflation. Increased

50

51 Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Consumer Price Index All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0

Civilian Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: IHS Global Insight

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Scenario

Refiners Acquisition Cost Average - $ Per Barrel

Economic Assumptions Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita (2009 $)

Variable

5.5 5.5 5.5

2.4 2.4 2.4

57 57 57

34,674 34,674 34,674

2015E

Historical

5.2 4.9 4.9

2.4 2.4 2.4

35 43 47

35,169 35,433 35,356

2016

6.0 4.7 4.7

2.8 2.7 2.7

94 83 73

36,970 39,056 40,120

2021

5.7 4.8 4.5

3.3 3.1 3.1

147 129 118

39,771 41,912 44,200

2026

FORECAST

5.4 4.7 4.4

3.9 3.4 3.4

172 139 119

42,326 45,444 48,792

2031

5.5 4.8 4.4

4.7 3.9 3.8

206 152 124

45,011 49,429 53,751

2036

FISCAL YEARS 2015-2036

-4.6% -9.4% -10.4%

0.6% 0.9% 1.4%

-38.7% -23.9% -16.3%

1.4% 2.2% 2.0%

2015-16

3.0% -0.8% -0.7%

3.0% 2.5% 2.3%

22.1% 13.9% 8.9%

1.0% 2.0% 2.6%

2016-21

0.8% -0.3% -0.8%

3.2% 2.5% 2.5%

15.5% 11.6% 9.5%

1.2% 1.7% 2.3%

2016-26

0.3% -0.3% -0.8%

3.3% 2.5% 2.3%

11.3% 8.1% 6.3%

1.2% 1.7% 2.2%

2016-31

0.3% -0.2% -0.5%

3.4% 2.4% 2.3%

9.3% 6.5% 4.9%

1.2% 1.7% 2.1%

2016-36

PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE A-1

52

* Includes domestic and international activity.

Optimistic

Pessimistic Baseline

Nominal Passenger Yield

(cents)

13.98 14.14

14.36

13.71

8,972

8,943

8,874

7,282

7,282

7,282

819

819

819

921

921

921

1,094

1,094

1,094

2016

14.36

14.36

8,913

Optimistic

8,913 8,913

Pessimistic Baseline

Psgr Carrier Departures

(000s)

7,152

Optimistic

7,152 7,152

Pessimistic Baseline

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown

786

Optimistic

(MIL)

786

Baseline

786

Pessimistic

(MIL)

889

Optimistic

Enplanements

889

Baseline

889

Pessimistic

(BIL)

1,066

Optimistic

Revenue Passenger Miles

1,066

Pessimistic Baseline

1,066

2015E

Historical

Available Seat Miles

Scenario

(BIL)

Aviation Activity

System

Variable

15.86

16.05

16.41

10,029

9,683

9,024

8,340

8,065

7,578

951

916

854

1,090

1,058

1,002

1,289

1,252

1,186

2021

17.94

18.07

18.91

10,994

10,275

9,648

9,329

8,795

8,334

1,067

998

938

1,250

1,186

1,131

1,475

1,401

1,337

2026

FORECAST

19.20

19.53

21.36

12,062

11,047

10,182

10,570

9,787

9,135

1,213

1,111

1,026

1,444

1,348

1,269

1,702

1,591

1,499

2031

20.68

21.17

24.18

13,205

11,939

10,740

11,919

10,907

9,982

1,372

1,240

1,119

1,657

1,531

1,416

1,952

1,806

1,674

2036

FISCAL YEARS 2015-2036

-1.5%

-2.6%

-4.6%

0.7%

0.3%

-0.4%

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

4.2%

4.2%

4.2%

3.6%

3.6%

3.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2015-16

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

TABLE A-2

2.3%

2.8%

3.7%

2.3%

1.6%

0.3%

2.8%

2.1%

0.8%

3.0%

2.3%

0.8%

3.4%

2.8%

1.7%

3.3%

2.7%

1.6%

2016-21

2.4%

2.6%

3.3%

2.1%

1.4%

0.8%

2.5%

1.9%

1.4%

2.7%

2.0%

1.4%

3.1%

2.6%

2.1%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

2016-26

2.1%

2.3%

3.0%

2.0%

1.4%

0.9%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

2.7%

2.1%

1.5%

3.0%

2.6%

2.2%

3.0%

2.5%

2.1%

2016-31

PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

1.9%

2.1%

2.9%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.6%

2.6%

2.1%

1.6%

3.0%

2.6%

2.2%

2.9%

2.5%

2.1%

2016-36

53 14.44 14.44

Baseline Optimistic

14.44

Pessimistic

(cents)

8,273

Optimistic

Nominal Passenger Yield

8,273

Baseline

8,273

Pessimistic

(000s)

5,655

Optimistic

Psgr Carrier Departures

5,655

Baseline

5,655

Pessimistic

(MIL)

696

Optimistic

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown

696

Baseline

696

Pessimistic

629

Optimistic

(MIL)

629

629

Baseline

Enplanements

(BIL)

Pessimistic

744

Optimistic

Revenue Passenger Miles

744

Pessimistic Baseline

744

2015E

Historical

Available Seat Miles

Scenario

(BIL)

Aviation Activity

Domestic

Variable

14.34

14.12

13.73

8,319

8,289

8,221

5,774

5,774

5,774

726

726

726

654

654

654

769

769

769

2016

16.23

16.52

17.08

9,250

8,906

8,251

6,510

6,237

5,753

838

803

741

765

733

676

892

854

788

2021

18.59

18.83

20.16

10,079

9,365

8,742

7,160

6,629

6,171

931

863

803

862

798

743

1,001

927

863

2026

FORECAST

19.79

20.35

23.27

10,994

9,986

9,126

8,034

7,256

6,608

1,053

951

867

987

892

813

1,143

1,033

942

2031

9,512

8,983

7,978

7,059

1,183

1,052

931

1,125

999

885

1,301

1,156

1,023

2036

21.24

22.06

26.98

11,960

10,703

FISCAL YEARS 2015-2036

-0.7%

-2.3%

-5.0%

0.5%

0.2%

-0.6%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

4.2%

4.2%

4.2%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

2015-16

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

TABLE A-3

2.5%

3.2%

4.5%

2.1%

1.4%

0.1%

2.4%

1.6%

-0.1%

2.9%

2.0%

0.4%

3.2%

2.3%

0.7%

3.0%

2.1%

0.5%

2016-21

2.6%

2.9%

3.9%

1.9%

1.2%

0.6%

2.2%

1.4%

0.7%

2.5%

1.7%

1.0%

2.8%

2.0%

1.3%

2.7%

1.9%

1.2%

2016-26

2.2%

2.5%

3.6%

1.9%

1.2%

0.7%

2.2%

1.5%

0.9%

2.5%

1.8%

1.2%

2.8%

2.1%

1.5%

2.7%

2.0%

1.4%

2016-31

PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2.0%

2.3%

3.4%

1.8%

1.3%

0.7%

2.2%

1.6%

1.0%

2.5%

1.9%

1.3%

2.7%

2.1%

1.5%

2.7%

2.1%

1.4%

2016-36

54 14.16

Optimistic

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.

14.16

Baseline

14.16

Pessimistic

(cents)

640

Optimistic

Nominal Passenger Yield

640

Baseline

640

Pessimistic

(000s)

1497

Optimistic

Psgr Carrier Departures

1497

Baseline

1497

Pessimistic

(MIL)

89

Optimistic

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown

89

Baseline

89

Pessimistic

(MIL)

260

Optimistic

Enplanements

260

Baseline

260

Pessimistic

Optimistic

(BIL)

323

Baseline

Revenue Passenger Miles

323

Pessimistic

323

2015E

Historical

(BIL)

Scenario

Available Seat Miles

Aviation Activity

International

Variable

13.66

13.66

13.66

654

654

654

1508

1508

1508

93

93

93

266

266

266

325

325

325

2016

15.01

15.01

15.01

779

777

772

1830

1829

1826

113

113

113

325

325

325

398

398

397

2021

16.50

16.50

16.51

915

910

906

2169

2166

2163

135

135

135

388

388

388

474

474

474

2026

FORECAST

17.94

17.95

17.95

1069

1062

1056

2536

2531

2527

160

160

160

456

456

456

558

558

558

2031

FISCAL YEARS 2015-2036

19.50

19.50

19.52

1245

1236

1228

2936

2929

2923

189

188

188

532

532

531

651

650

650

2036

-3.6%

-3.6%

-3.6%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

4.3%

4.3%

4.3%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

2015-16

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

3.6%

3.5%

3.4%

3.9%

3.9%

3.9%

4.0%

3.9%

3.9%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

2016-21

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

3.4%

3.4%

3.3%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

2016-26

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

3.3%

3.3%

3.2%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

2016-31

PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

TABLE A-4

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

3.3%

3.2%

3.2%

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

3.6%

3.6%

3.6%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

2016-36

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 6.9 percent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2005 through FY 2015 occurred in FY 2001 through FY 2014. 8

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on industry knowledge and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that each year’s forecast would contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable variance from actual results. The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for a primary forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2005-2015 forecast period. Although this period has experienced industry upheaval, the FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology. The table below contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the actual results for U.S. carriers’ system operations along with the projected values versus actual results for U.S. GDP. Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3

8

It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted year is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005.

55

U.S. AIR CARRIERS SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY FORECAST EVALUATION

Forecast Variable

U.S. Real GDP ASMs RPMs Passenger Enplanements Mainline Domestic Yield IFR Aircraft Handled*

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2005 - FY 2015) (Forecast Variance from Actual) Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 2.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 3.4% 2.2%

3.4% 3.8% 3.0% 2.7% 4.7% 5.5%

5.3% 6.9% 5.5% 5.4% 6.4% 8.4%

7.1% 10.4% 8.0% 7.8% 8.1% 11.5%

8.3% 15.8% 11.7% 11.6% 10.4% 15.9%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

ond, all the metrics examined show increasing variances as the forecast time horizon lengthens. Third, the variance in the IFR handled aircraft up to 3 years out is more than 1.5 percentage points larger than the ASM forecast variance. This suggests that within a 3 year forecast horizon carriers have been able to accommodate changes in capacity by means other than adjusting operations. Many carriers have been systematically reducing the number smaller regional jets in their fleets, replacing them with larger 70-90 seat aircraft. This has allowed carriers to increase capacity without increasing flights. However the forecast variance in these two metrics narrows as the time horizon increases suggesting that over the long run ASM growth is a good indicator of operations growth.

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to de-crease as the forecast year is closer to the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur. Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, the forecast variances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, are similar to the variances of the key traffic measures, Passenger Enplanements and RPMs. This suggests that a substantial amount of the forecast variance for the traffic variables may be attributed to the forecast error in the exogenous variables. Sec-

56

Appendix C: Forecast Tables

57

58 237.0

Consumer Price Index (1982-84 equals 100) Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Source: IHS Global Insight

73.78

34,440

235.2 -3.1%

48.01 -82.1%

34,533 1.1%

236.9 3.0%

57.43 104.8%

34,767 2.7%

237.9 1.6%

47.61 -52.8%

34,956 2.2%

237.7 -0.3%

38.11 -58.9%

35,145 2.2%

237.5 -0.3%

37.70 -4.2%

35,323 2.0%

238.8 2.3%

43.05 70.1%

35,520 2.2%

241.6 4.6%

53.75 143.0%

35,741 2.5%

243.4 3.1%

55.79 16.0%

35,954 2.4%

244.3 1.5%

53.36 -16.3%

36,182 2.6%

246.2 3.1%

57.32 33.2%

36,399 2.4%

248.2 3.3%

62.98 45.7%

36,589 2.1%

FISCAL YEAR 2015 FISCAL YEAR 2016 FISCAL YEAR 2017 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average (Dollars per barrel) Annual rate - not seasonally adjusted

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita (2009 $) Annual rate - not seasonally adjusted

ECONOMIC VARIABLE

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

TABLE 1

59

14,934 14,428 14,685 14,958 15,306 15,489 15,864 16,270

16,675 17,184 17,648 18,099 18,567 18,983 19,391 19,809 20,246 20,682 21,124 21,588 22,055 22,541 23,033 23,531 24,035 24,558 25,096 25,649 26,204

1.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36 Source: IHS Global Insight

29,227

12,676

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

1.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7%

45,444 46,228 47,036 47,830 48,627 49,429

41,912 42,520 43,226 43,963 44,692

39,056 39,636 40,172 40,723 41,306

35,433 36,282 37,068 37,825 38,464

33,049 32,098 32,186 32,787 33,033 33,269 33,837 34,674

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA (2009 $)

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Billions 2009 $)

2.1% 0.9% 2.4% 2.3%

3.44 3.51 3.60 3.68 3.77 3.85

3.07 3.14 3.21 3.28 3.36

2.70 2.78 2.85 2.93 3.00

2.39 2.46 2.52 2.58 2.64

2.14 2.14 2.17 2.23 2.29 2.32 2.36 2.37

1.76

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1982-84=1.00)

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

TABLE 2

5.8% -23.9% 8.2% 4.8%

138.78 139.94 142.37 145.35 148.97 152.26

128.98 132.31 134.91 136.39 137.57

82.62 92.31 105.16 116.80 124.41

43.15 57.36 62.45 69.03 75.69

101.52 54.68 74.61 96.00 102.81 100.78 97.79 56.71

25.80

REFINERS' ACQUISITION COST AVERAGE (Dollars per barrel)

60

1,605 1,561 1,614 1,662 1,694 1,728 1,770 1,789

1,820 1,861 1,904 1,949 1,993 2,037 2,080 2,123 2,166 2,210 2,254 2,298 2,343 2,388 2,436 2,483 2,532 2,582 2,633 2,685 2,739

2.0% 1.8%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16

2.0% 3.5%

38,439 39,251 40,076 40,912 41,757 42,615

34,503 35,267 36,043 36,829 37,630

30,746 31,487 32,235 32,993 33,751

27,296 27,923 28,606 29,288 30,010

25,004 24,140 24,863 25,501 25,703 25,944 26,371 26,777

20,279

3.3% -0.3%

9,065 9,345 9,633 9,929 10,233 10,546

7,787 8,027 8,275 8,531 8,793

6,673 6,881 7,099 7,323 7,554

5,846 5,956 6,106 6,284 6,477

5,011 4,950 5,247 5,488 5,644 5,801 5,865 5,839

3,835

2015-25 2.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2015-36 2.0% 2.3% 2.8% Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)

1,359

CANADA

CALENDAR YEAR Historical 2001

5.0% 4.2%

4.9% 8.6%

45,599 47,155 48,761 50,370 51,998 53,671

37,930 39,467 41,002 42,529 44,047

30,572 31,992 33,437 34,920 36,413

24,391 25,455 26,603 27,870 29,190

17,110 17,440 18,736 19,623 20,554 21,533 22,459 23,402

12,108

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (In Billions of 2010 U.S. Dollars) JAPAN / PACIFIC BASIN / CHINA / EUROPE / LATIN AMERICA / OTHER ASIA / AFRICA/ MIDDLE CARIBBEAN / AUSTRALIA / NEW EAST MEXICO ZEALAND

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

TABLE 3

3.4% 3.0%

2.8% 5.2%

119,560 122,775 126,074 129,416 132,810 136,273

103,973 107,033 110,127 113,240 116,370

89,333 92,163 95,055 98,006 100,970

76,373 78,697 81,189 83,821 86,561

63,741 62,686 65,424 67,477 69,137 70,778 72,620 74,355

50,418

WORLD

61

11,486

15,072 17,666 17,156 17,630 17,960 18,374 18,655 19,105 19,542

20,074 20,630 21,182 21,736 22,293 22,797 23,306 23,836 24,373 24,908 25,460 26,031 26,617 27,216 27,819 28,433 29,057 29,698 30,359 31,039 31,724

1.9% 2.7%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16

1.7% 2.4%

3,770 3,848 3,926 4,005 4,085 4,167

3,407 3,478 3,548 3,621 3,695

3,069 3,136 3,204 3,271 3,339

2,735 2,803 2,870 2,933 3,000

2,471 2,367 2,404 2,451 2,480 2,533 2,608 2,671

2,108

UNITED KINGDOM

2015-25 2.5% 1.6% 2.3% 2015-36 2.3% 1.5% 2.1% Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)

0.9% 1.7%

16,559 16,781 17,006 17,234 17,461 17,688

15,455 15,673 15,891 16,112 16,334

14,364 14,584 14,802 15,023 15,238

13,264 13,499 13,723 13,923 14,141

12,983 12,400 12,648 12,861 12,764 12,735 12,847 13,044

EUROZONE

NORTH AMERICA (NAFTA)

CALENDAR YEAR Historical 2001

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (In Billions of 2010 U.S. Dollars)

0.9% 0.8%

0.8% 1.0%

6,550 6,596 6,641 6,684 6,727 6,767

6,299 6,352 6,404 6,455 6,504

6,017 6,074 6,131 6,187 6,243

5,750 5,784 5,824 5,896 5,958

5,569 5,262 5,510 5,489 5,585 5,671 5,663 5,692

5,125

JAPAN

6.1% 5.1%

9.7% 6.3%

20,850 21,639 22,452 23,251 24,047 24,863

16,791 17,632 18,459 19,260 20,045

12,758 13,538 14,322 15,141 15,959

9,343 9,938 10,576 11,260 11,987

4,999 5,461 6,041 6,614 7,125 7,673 8,231 8,791

2,410

CHINA

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES

TABLE 4

62

57

625 681 631 635 650 654 654 669 696

726 742 760 776 790 803 814 824 835 848 863 878 895 914 932 951 971 991 1,011 1,031 1,052

0.8% 4.2% 2.0% 2.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation. 1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

3.3% 4.3% 3.9% 3.6%

160 165 171 176 182 188

135 140 145 150 155

113 117 122 126 131

93 97 101 105 109

78 74 77 81 83 85 88 89

INTERNATIONAL

DOMESTIC

1.0% 4.2% 2.2% 2.2%

1,111 1,136 1,162 1,188 1,213 1,240

998 1,018 1,040 1,063 1,087

916 931 945 961 979

819 839 860 881 899

759 704 712 731 737 739 757 786

682

TOTAL

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions)

YEAR Historical 2001

FISCAL

1.5% 4.1% 2.2% 2.2%

892 913 934 956 977 999

798 814 833 852 872

733 745 756 768 783

654 670 688 704 719

595 549 555 572 578 584 600 629

508

DOMESTIC

2.5% 2.2% 3.7% 3.5%

456 471 485 500 516 532

388 401 414 428 442

325 337 350 362 375

266 277 289 301 313

234 221 231 242 244 250 257 260

183

INTERNATIONAL

1.8% 3.6% 2.7% 2.6%

1,348 1,384 1,420 1,456 1,493 1,531

1,186 1,215 1,247 1,280 1,314

1,058 1,083 1,106 1,131 1,158

921 947 977 1,006 1,033

828 770 786 815 822 834 857 889

691

TOTAL

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TABLE 5

63

508

731 750 682 679 693 694 700 711 744

769 785 805 823 839 854 868 880 893 909 927 945 966 988 1,010 1,033 1,057 1,082 1,106 1,131 1,156

0.1% 3.4% 2.0% 2.1%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

86.3 86.4 86.4 86.4 86.4 86.5

86.1 86.2 86.2 86.3 86.3

85.8 85.9 86.0 86.0 86.1

85.1 85.3 85.5 85.6 85.7

79.3 80.4 81.7 82.5 83.2 83.4 84.4 84.5

69.4

% LOAD FACTOR

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation. 1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

1.5% 4.1% 2.2% 2.2%

892 913 934 956 977 999

798 814 833 852 872

733 745 756 768 783

654 670 688 704 719

595 549 555 572 578 584 600 629

DOMESTIC RPMs (BIL)

ASMs (BIL)

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

1.9% 0.8% 3.6% 3.4%

558 576 594 612 631 650

474 490 507 524 541

398 412 428 443 458

325 339 353 368 383

293 283 281 300 300 303 315 323

247

ASMs (BIL)

2.5% 2.2% 3.7% 3.5%

456 471 485 500 516 532

388 401 414 428 442

325 337 350 362 375

266 277 289 301 313

234 221 231 242 244 250 257 260

183

81.8 81.7 81.7 81.7 81.7 81.7

81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8

81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8

81.9 81.9 81.9 81.8 81.8

79.9 78.1 82.1 80.7 81.4 82.6 81.4 80.7

74.3

INTERNATIONAL RPMs % LOAD (BIL) FACTOR

0.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

1,591 1,633 1,676 1,719 1,762 1,806

1,401 1,435 1,473 1,512 1,551

1,252 1,280 1,307 1,336 1,368

1,094 1,124 1,158 1,191 1,222

1,042 966 961 994 995 1,003 1,026 1,066

978

ASMs (BIL)

1.8% 3.6% 2.7% 2.6%

1,348 1,384 1,420 1,456 1,493 1,531

1,186 1,215 1,247 1,280 1,314

1,058 1,083 1,106 1,131 1,158

921 947 977 1,006 1,033

828 770 786 815 822 834 857 889

691

SYSTEM RPMs (BIL)

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TABLE 6

84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7

84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7

84.5 84.6 84.6 84.6 84.6

84.2 84.3 84.4 84.4 84.5

79.5 79.7 81.8 82.0 82.6 83.2 83.5 83.4

70.6

% LOAD FACTOR

64

39 37 40 42 44 46 49 51

54 56 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 86 89 93 96 100 104 108 112 116 120

26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

1.3% 2.1% 3.1% 2.8%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

1

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation. Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

5.8% 5.9% 4.5% 4.2%

23

20

ATLANTIC (Mil)

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.6%

21 22 22 23 23 24

19 19 20 20 21

16 17 17 18 18

14 15 15 15 16

13 12 13 14 14 14 14 14

11

3.5% 4.3% 3.9% 3.6%

160 165 171 176 182 188

135 140 145 150 155

113 117 121 126 130

93 97 101 105 109

78 74 77 81 83 85 88 89

55

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS LATIN TOTAL AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL (Mil) (Mil) (Mil)

1.5% 0.9% 3.4% 3.1%

176 181 186 191 196 201

154 158 162 167 172

132 136 141 145 149

108 113 118 123 127

113 109 109 112 108 107 108 107

86

ATLANTIC (Bil)

5.9% 3.5% 4.7% 4.4%

169 176 183 190 197 205

137 143 149 156 162

109 114 120 125 131

86 89 94 99 104

61 58 63 67 70 75 80 83

37

1.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8%

111 114 117 120 123 126

97 100 103 106 108

84 87 89 92 95

73 75 77 80 82

60 55 59 64 66 69 69 71

59

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC (Bil) (Bil)

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TABLE 7

2.6% 2.2% 3.7% 3.5%

456 471 485 500 516 531

388 401 414 428 442

325 337 350 362 375

266 277 289 301 313

234 221 231 242 244 250 257 260

183

TOTAL INTERNATIONAL (Bil)

65

57 55 56 58 61 63 66 69

72 75 78 81 85 88 91 95 98 102 105 109 113 117 121 125 129 134 138 143 148

2.7% 3.5% 3.9% 3.7%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

4.6% 4.7% 3.8% 4.0%

137 142 148 155 161 168

111 116 121 126 131

90 94 98 102 106

77 78 80 83 87

50 48 53 57 61 65 69 73

39

3.0% 2.8% 4.3% 3.8%

66 68 70 72 74 77

55 58 60 62 64

45 47 49 51 53

36 38 40 41 43

26 24 27 28 31 32 34 35

23

2.9% 1.6% 3.5% 3.5%

50 51 53 55 57 59

42 43 45 46 48

35 37 38 39 41

29 30 32 33 34

22 20 22 23 25 26 28 29

19

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions) U.S./CANADA LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TRANSBORDER

3.4% 3.5% 3.9% 3.8%

377 391 405 420 436 452

314 326 338 351 364

259 269 280 291 302

214 221 230 239 249

154 148 157 166 177 186 197 206

129

TOTAL

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada.

47

ATLANTIC

CALENDAR YEAR Historical 2001

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TABLE 8

66

121 122 122 123 123 125 127 132

133 134 135 136 136 137 138 138 139 139 140 140 141 141 142 142 143 143 144 144 145

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

220 221 221 221 222 222

219 219 220 220 220

217 218 218 218 219

216 216 217 217 217

219 219 216 217 214 214 215 216

227

163 163 164 164 165 166

159 160 161 161 162

155 156 157 158 159

150 151 152 153 154

138 140 140 141 141 143 146 149

143

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation. 1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

128

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)

938 940 943 945 948 950

925 928 930 933 935

913 915 918 920 923

902 903 905 908 910

874 870 875 880 884 894 897 903

812

2,853 2,850 2,844 2,838 2,831 2,825

2,870 2,867 2,864 2,860 2,857

2,876 2,878 2,879 2,876 2,873

2,856 2,868 2,872 2,874 2,874

2,985 3,008 2,988 2,993 2,951 2,942 2,917 2,912

3,234

1,213 1,218 1,222 1,226 1,231 1,235

1,189 1,194 1,199 1,204 1,209

1,155 1,162 1,170 1,177 1,183

1,124 1,130 1,135 1,142 1,148

1,091 1,093 1,104 1,114 1,116 1,130 1,132 1,131

1,013

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

TABLE 9

67

522 477 473 488 495 498 515 543

572 584 598 611 623 633 642 649 658 668 680 692 706 720 735 750 765 781 797 813 829

0.0% 5.2% 2.1% 2.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

3.5% 4.4% 3.9% 3.6%

157 162 168 173 179 185

132 137 142 147 152

111 115 119 123 128

91 94 98 102 107

75 71 75 79 80 82 85 87

54

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

545

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

0.4% 5.1% 2.4% 2.3%

907 928 949 970 992 1,014

812 829 848 867 887

743 756 768 781 796

663 679 697 714 729

596 548 548 567 575 580 600 631

598

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

1.0% 4.6% 2.2% 2.2%

791 809 828 847 866 885

708 722 738 756 773

651 661 671 682 694

581 595 611 626 639

521 478 480 497 503 511 527 556

483

2.5% 2.3% 3.7% 3.5%

454 468 483 498 514 529

386 399 412 426 440

324 336 348 361 373

265 276 288 299 312

232 220 230 241 243 248 255 259

182

1.5% 3.8% 2.7% 2.7%

1,245 1,277 1,311 1,345 1,379 1,414

1,094 1,121 1,151 1,182 1,213

974 997 1,019 1,042 1,067

846 871 898 925 950

753 698 710 738 746 759 782 815

666

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions) DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

TABLE 10

68

483

690 650 588 581 594 599 607 620 653

678 692 709 725 739 752 764 774 786 800 815 831 849 869 888 908 929 950 972 993 1,015

-0.4% 3.8% 2.0% 2.1%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

87.1 87.1 87.1 87.2 87.2 87.2

86.9 86.9 86.9 87.0 87.0

86.5 86.6 86.7 86.7 86.8

85.8 85.9 86.1 86.3 86.4

80.2 81.4 82.7 83.6 84.1 84.2 85.0 85.1

70.0

% LOAD FACTOR

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1.0% 4.6% 2.2% 2.2%

791 809 828 847 866 885

708 722 738 756 773

651 661 671 682 694

581 595 611 626 639

521 478 480 497 503 511 527 556

DOMESTIC RPMs (BIL)

ASMs (BIL)

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

1.9% 0.8% 3.6% 3.4%

555 573 591 609 628 647

472 488 504 521 538

395 410 425 440 456

323 337 351 366 381

290 281 279 299 298 301 313 321

245

ASMs (BIL)

2.5% 2.3% 3.7% 3.5%

454 468 483 498 514 529

386 399 412 426 440

324 336 348 361 373

265 276 288 299 312

232 220 230 241 243 248 255 259

182

0.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1%

81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8

81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8

81.9 81.9 81.9 81.8 81.8

81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9

80.0 78.2 82.2 80.8 81.5 82.6 81.4 80.8

74.4

INTERNATIONAL RPMs % LOAD (BIL) FACTOR

0.3% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6%

1,463 1,502 1,541 1,581 1,621 1,662

1,287 1,319 1,353 1,390 1,426

1,147 1,174 1,199 1,226 1,256

1,001 1,029 1,060 1,091 1,120

940 869 860 893 896 907 933 974

935

ASMs (BIL)

1.5% 3.8% 2.7% 2.7%

1,245 1,277 1,311 1,345 1,379 1,414

1,094 1,121 1,151 1,182 1,213

974 997 1,019 1,042 1,067

846 871 898 925 950

753 698 710 738 746 759 782 815

666

SYSTEM RPMs (BIL)

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

TABLE 11

85.1 85.1 85.1 85.1 85.1 85.1

85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.1

84.9 84.9 85.0 85.0 85.0

84.5 84.6 84.7 84.8 84.9

80.1 80.3 82.5 82.6 83.2 83.7 83.8 83.7

71.2

% LOAD FACTOR

69

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

5.9% 6.2% 4.6% 4.3%

97 101 105 109 113 117

80 83 86 90 93

64 67 70 73 76

52 54 56 59 62

36 34 37 40 41 43 46 49

22

1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.6%

21 22 22 23 23 24

19 19 20 20 21

16 17 17 18 18

14 15 15 15 16

13 12 13 14 14 14 14 14

11

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL) LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1.3% 2.1% 3.1% 2.8%

26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

20

ATLANTIC

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

3.5% 4.4% 3.9% 3.6%

157 162 168 173 179 185

132 137 142 147 152

111 115 119 123 128

91 94 98 102 107

75 71 75 79 80 82 85 87

54

TOTAL

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

TABLE 12

70

141 138 131 138 132 128 132 133

131 138 144 150 155 160 166 171 176 182 187 192 198 203 209 214 220 226 232 238 244

1.2% -1.8% 3.1% 2.9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

1.5% 0.9% 3.4% 3.1%

176 181 186 191 196 201

154 158 162 167 172

132 136 141 145 149

108 113 118 123 127

113 109 109 112 108 107 108 107

86

82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2

82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2

82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2

82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2 82.2

80.0 78.9 82.9 80.7 81.5 83.3 81.7 80.0

76.4

ATLANTIC RPMs % LOAD (BIL) FACTOR

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

113

ASMs (BIL)

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

4.7% 3.4% 4.8% 4.4%

207 216 225 233 243 252

168 175 183 191 199

133 140 147 154 161

104 109 114 121 127

74 73 78 82 84 90 97 101

53

ASMs (BIL)

5.8% 3.6% 4.8% 4.5%

167 173 180 188 195 203

135 141 147 154 160

107 112 118 124 129

84 88 92 97 102

59 56 62 66 68 73 78 81

37

80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4

80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4

80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4

80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4

79.3 76.8 79.2 79.9 80.9 81.1 80.6 80.3

69.2

LATIN AMERICA RPMs % LOAD (BIL) FACTOR

0.6% 1.8% 2.8% 2.7%

133 137 140 144 147 151

117 120 123 127 130

101 104 107 110 114

88 90 93 95 98

75 70 70 78 81 83 84 86

79

ASMs (BIL)

1.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8%

111 114 117 120 123 126

97 100 103 106 108

84 87 89 92 95

73 75 77 80 82

60 55 59 64 66 69 69 71

59

PACIFIC RPMs (BIL)

83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3

83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3

83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3

83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3

80.6 78.3 84.1 81.8 82.0 83.1 82.0 82.5

75.2

% LOAD FACTOR

1.9% 0.8% 3.6% 3.4%

555 573 591 609 628 647

472 488 504 521 538

395 410 425 440 456

323 337 351 366 381

290 281 279 299 298 301 313 321

245

ASMs (BIL)

2.5% 2.3% 3.7% 3.5%

454 468 483 498 514 529

386 399 412 426 440

324 336 348 361 373

265 276 288 299 312

232 220 230 241 243 248 255 259

182

81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8

81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8

81.9 81.9 81.9 81.8 81.8

81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9

80.0 78.2 82.2 80.8 81.5 82.6 81.4 80.8

74.4

INTERNATIONAL RPMs % LOAD (BIL) FACTOR

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

TABLE 13

71

233

146 150 151 152 152 153 154 155 158

158 159 160 160 161 161 162 162 163 164 164 164 165 165 166 166 167 167 168 168 168

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

245 246 246 247 247 248

243 243 244 244 245

240 241 241 242 242

238 238 239 239 240

229 230 232 231 230 233 236 237

ATLANTIC (Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC (Seats/Mile)

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

182 182 183 183 184 184

179 180 180 181 181

177 177 178 178 179

174 175 175 176 176

177 176 172 173 172 172 173 174

175

LATIN AMERICA (Seats/Mile)

284 285 286 286 287 288

280 281 282 283 283

277 277 278 279 280

273 274 274 275 276

292 291 287 283 278 276 276 272

304

INTERNATIONAL PACIFIC (Seats/Mile)

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

223 224 224 224 225 225

222 222 223 223 223

221 221 221 222 222

220 220 220 220 221

225 224 221 221 219 219 220 220

234

TOTAL (Seats/Mile)

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE 14

184 185 185 186 186 187

181 182 183 183 184

178 179 179 180 181

174 175 176 176 177

167 169 169 170 170 171 172 174

162

SYSTEM (Seats/Mile)

72

4,212

887 999 1,003 1,015 1,017 1,017 1,026 1,024 1,023

1,017 1,018 1,021 1,023 1,026 1,028 1,031 1,034 1,036 1,039 1,041 1,044 1,047 1,049 1,052 1,054 1,057 1,060 1,062 1,065 1,068

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

4,534 4,543 4,552 4,557 4,561 4,566

4,475 4,489 4,502 4,516 4,525

4,391 4,409 4,427 4,444 4,462

4,287 4,309 4,330 4,352 4,374

4,333 4,402 4,433 4,415 4,356 4,313 4,321 4,336

ATLANTIC (Miles)

DOMESTIC (Miles)

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

1,719 1,724 1,725 1,727 1,729 1,731

1,698 1,702 1,707 1,711 1,715

1,669 1,677 1,685 1,690 1,694

1,628 1,636 1,644 1,652 1,660

1,652 1,646 1,660 1,655 1,668 1,693 1,696 1,669

1,688

5,260 5,266 5,270 5,275 5,278 5,282

5,226 5,234 5,242 5,248 5,255

5,180 5,190 5,200 5,209 5,218

5,120 5,133 5,146 5,157 5,169

4,583 4,550 4,587 4,707 4,725 4,774 4,910 5,080

5,229

INTERNATIONAL LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC (Miles) (Miles)

2,893 2,889 2,883 2,876 2,869 2,862

2,914 2,910 2,906 2,902 2,897

2,925 2,925 2,925 2,921 2,918

2,909 2,921 2,925 2,925 2,924

3,100 3,098 3,077 3,068 3,040 3,023 2,993 2,969

3,405

TOTAL (Miles)

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE 15

1,213 1,218 1,222 1,226 1,231 1,235

1,189 1,194 1,199 1,204 1,209

1,155 1,162 1,170 1,177 1,183

1,124 1,130 1,135 1,142 1,148

1,091 1,093 1,104 1,114 1,116 1,130 1,132 1,131

1,013

SYSTEM (Miles)

73

13.11 11.95 12.62 13.62 14.08 14.42 15.11 14.73

14.39 15.19 15.58 15.99 16.40 16.83 17.35 17.92 18.43 18.85 19.19 19.52 19.84 20.14 20.43 20.74 21.05 21.39 21.74 22.12 22.49

0.6% -2.3% 2.5% 2.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

-1.5% -3.2% 0.1% -0.3%

14.29 14.18 14.08 13.99 13.90 13.81

14.82 14.73 14.63 14.52 14.40

14.73 14.78 14.87 14.91 14.89

14.26 14.65 14.66 14.70 14.72

14.48 13.24 13.74 14.45 14.59 14.70 15.16 14.73

18.19

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

13.54

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

DOMESTIC CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

2.3% -3.6% 1.4% 1.5%

17.99 18.28 18.59 18.90 19.22 19.55

16.54 16.82 17.10 17.39 17.68

15.04 15.36 15.67 15.98 16.27

13.69 13.99 14.26 14.50 14.76

13.37 11.68 12.84 14.09 14.74 14.80 14.94 14.20

10.34

0.2% -4.5% -1.0% -0.8%

12.40 12.32 12.24 12.16 12.08 12.01

12.77 12.69 12.61 12.54 12.47

13.17 13.09 13.01 12.93 12.85

13.57 13.49 13.41 13.33 13.25

14.77 12.94 13.98 14.95 15.27 15.09 14.98 14.20

13.89

INTERNATIONAL CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE

PASSENGER YIELDS

0.5% -2.6% 2.1% 1.9%

19.53 19.83 20.15 20.48 20.82 21.17

18.07 18.37 18.66 18.95 19.23

16.05 16.49 16.96 17.40 17.76

13.98 14.63 14.97 15.32 15.68

13.90 12.35 12.98 13.90 14.19 14.28 14.74 14.36

13.36

-1.6% -3.5% -0.2% -0.5%

13.46 13.36 13.27 13.18 13.09 13.01

13.95 13.86 13.76 13.66 13.56

14.05 14.05 14.08 14.07 14.03

13.86 14.10 14.09 14.09 14.07

15.35 13.68 14.14 14.75 14.70 14.56 14.78 14.36

17.95

SYSTEM CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE 16

74

13.29 11.25 12.73 13.48 13.95 14.45 14.84 14.64

14.55 14.88 15.17 15.45 15.74 16.06 16.41 16.77 17.12 17.45 17.76 18.08 18.41 18.74 19.06 19.40 19.75 20.10 20.47 20.85 21.23

3.0% -0.6% 1.8% 1.8%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

0.8% -1.5% -0.6% -0.5%

13.37 13.30 13.24 13.17 13.11 13.04

13.71 13.64 13.57 13.51 13.44

14.06 13.99 13.92 13.85 13.78

14.42 14.34 14.27 14.20 14.13

14.67 12.46 13.87 14.31 14.45 14.73 14.88 14.64

13.05

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

9.71

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

ATLANTIC CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

0.6% -6.2% 0.9% 1.2%

17.37 17.62 17.87 18.14 18.41 18.68

16.09 16.33 16.59 16.84 17.09

14.78 15.06 15.34 15.61 15.85

13.61 13.86 14.10 14.30 14.54

14.19 12.99 13.33 15.13 15.79 15.80 15.76 14.50

13.38

-1.5% -7.0% -1.5% -1.1%

11.97 11.87 11.77 11.67 11.57 11.47

12.42 12.32 12.23 12.14 12.05

12.94 12.84 12.73 12.63 12.52

13.48 13.36 13.26 13.15 13.05

15.67 14.39 14.52 16.06 16.35 16.10 15.81 14.50

17.97

LATIN AMERICA CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

2.5% -5.2% 1.3% 1.8%

16.66 16.96 17.27 17.60 17.93 19.26

15.23 15.51 15.78 16.07 16.36

13.79 14.09 14.39 14.68 14.96

12.53 12.80 13.05 13.28 13.53

12.73 11.20 12.50 14.07 14.95 14.30 14.15 13.21

9.38

0.3% -6.0% -1.1% -0.8%

11.48 11.43 11.37 11.32 11.27 11.22

11.76 11.70 11.64 11.59 11.53

12.07 12.01 11.94 11.88 11.82

12.42 12.34 12.28 12.21 12.14

14.06 12.40 13.61 14.93 15.49 14.57 14.19 13.21

12.60

PACIFIC CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

2.3% -3.6% 1.4% 1.5%

17.99 18.28 18.59 18.90 19.22 19.55

16.54 16.82 17.10 17.39 17.68

15.04 15.36 15.67 15.98 16.27

13.69 13.99 14.26 14.50 14.76

13.37 11.68 12.84 14.09 14.74 14.80 14.94 14.20

10.34

0.2% -4.5% -1.0% -0.8%

12.40 12.32 12.24 12.16 12.08 12.01

12.77 12.69 12.61 12.54 12.47

13.17 13.09 13.01 12.93 12.85

13.57 13.49 13.41 13.33 13.25

14.77 12.94 13.98 14.95 15.27 15.09 14.98 14.20

13.89

TOTAL INTERNATIONAL CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE 17

75

292.53 202.07 219.16 289.32 314.56 308.91 300.70 207.33

153.94 178.60 196.50 216.74 237.67 259.41 288.28 326.54 363.73 390.54 407.57 419.47 428.48 434.06 438.18 442.07 445.78 452.66 461.58 472.52 483.07

6.8% -25.8% 6.5% 4.1%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

4.6% -26.4% 4.1% 1.7%

304.66 300.30 298.10 296.99 297.07 296.76

314.60 316.49 315.99 312.91 308.94

227.08 245.71 270.98 294.19 308.43

152.56 172.19 184.88 199.27 213.31

323.01 223.80 238.67 307.04 325.90 314.91 301.66 207.33

110.64

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

82.66

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

DOMESTIC CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

6.6% -25.8% 6.5% 4.1%

451.52 455.31 462.33 471.44 482.62 493.39

416.28 428.44 437.64 443.34 447.55

264.96 294.45 333.52 371.50 398.89

157.23 182.42 200.70 221.38 242.75

314.57 208.27 220.12 288.10 309.52 299.39 292.56 211.76

86.37

4.4% -26.4% 4.1% 1.7%

311.17 306.72 304.47 303.33 303.42 303.11

321.32 323.25 322.74 319.60 315.55

231.93 250.96 276.77 300.48 315.02

155.82 175.87 188.84 203.53 217.87

347.35 230.66 239.71 305.75 320.68 305.20 293.49 211.76

115.68

INTERNATIONAL CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

JET FUEL PRICES

6.8% -25.8% 6.5% 4.1%

445.59 449.33 456.26 465.25 476.28 486.91

410.81 422.81 431.89 437.51 441.67

261.48 290.58 329.14 366.62 393.65

155.17 180.02 198.06 218.47 239.56

299.65 204.14 219.49 288.87 312.64 305.24 297.61 208.98

83.68

4.5% -26.4% 4.1% 1.7%

307.08 302.69 300.47 299.35 299.44 299.12

317.10 319.01 318.50 315.40 311.40

228.89 247.66 273.14 296.53 310.88

153.78 173.56 186.36 200.86 215.01

330.88 226.09 239.02 306.56 323.92 311.17 298.55 208.98

112.42

SYSTEM CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE 18

76

12,261 10,275 11,243 10,601 10,886 10,996 11,226 11,672

11,908 12,172 12,296 12,451 12,653 12,789 12,840 12,881 12,897 12,917 12,944 12,962 12,988 13,003 13,021 13,026 13,032 13,048 13,062 13,072 13,081

1.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

5.9% 6.4% 5.7% 5.2%

37,974 39,670 41,445 43,292 45,206 47,170

30,107 31,597 33,139 34,717 36,319

23,410 24,633 25,956 27,331 28,684

17,454 18,651 19,807 20,994 22,234

17,516 13,834 16,733 18,980 18,310 16,741 16,356 16,403

7,380

INT'L.

3.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.7%

51,000 52,702 54,493 56,354 58,279 60,251

43,050 44,559 46,127 47,721 49,340

36,198 37,474 38,837 40,228 41,600

29,362 30,822 32,103 33,445 34,888

29,777 24,110 27,976 29,581 29,196 27,737 27,581 28,075

17,372

TOTAL

-7.1% 1.2% 0.2% -0.3%

1,387 1,376 1,366 1,355 1,344 1,333

1,438 1,428 1,419 1,409 1,399

1,480 1,474 1,467 1,457 1,447

1,434 1,455 1,458 1,465 1,477

2,147 1,623 1,580 1,446 1,360 1,354 1,451 1,417

3,946

DOMESTIC

-0.7% 4.8% 4.1% 3.5%

11,628 11,945 12,270 12,599 12,931 13,259

10,005 10,332 10,662 10,989 11,308

8,415 8,719 9,045 9,376 9,685

6,768 7,125 7,454 7,781 8,116

6,905 5,266 6,332 6,250 5,952 5,700 6,148 6,456

7,167

INT'L.

-2.4% 4.2% 3.5% 3.0%

13,015 13,321 13,635 13,954 14,275 14,593

11,443 11,760 12,081 12,397 12,706

9,896 10,193 10,512 10,832 11,132

8,202 8,579 8,912 9,246 9,593

9,052 6,889 7,912 7,696 7,313 7,053 7,598 7,873

11,112

TOTAL

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS (Millions)

-0.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.5%

14,413 14,408 14,413 14,417 14,417 14,415

14,382 14,390 14,407 14,412 14,420

14,269 14,315 14,348 14,354 14,364

13,343 13,626 13,754 13,916 14,130

14,408 11,899 12,823 12,047 12,246 12,350 12,676 13,089

13,938

DOMESTIC

3.3% 6.0% 5.3% 4.7%

49,601 51,615 53,715 55,891 58,137 60,429

40,111 41,929 43,801 45,706 47,627

31,825 33,352 35,000 36,706 38,369

24,222 25,775 27,261 28,775 30,351

24,421 19,100 23,065 25,230 24,262 22,441 22,503 22,858

14,547

INT'L.

TOTAL RTMS (Millions)

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation 1 Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters. 2 Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3 Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.

9,992

DOMESTIC

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS (Millions)

Historical 2001

YEAR

FISCAL

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

TABLE 19

1.7% 4.5% 3.9% 3.6%

64,014 66,022 68,129 70,308 72,554 74,844

54,493 56,319 58,208 60,118 62,046

46,094 47,667 49,349 51,060 52,732

37,565 39,402 41,015 42,691 44,481

38,829 30,999 35,888 37,277 36,509 34,790 35,180 35,947

28,485

TOTAL

77

5,282 6,415 5,740 6,865 7,236 7,026 6,662 6,887 6,746

7,012 7,320 7,637 7,953 8,292 8,627 8,974 9,337 9,711 10,089 10,477 10,881 11,299 11,730 12,173 12,629 13,098 13,583 14,087 14,609 15,146

1.8% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9%

Historical 2001 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Forecast 2016E 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

-1.0% -3.1% 0.9% 1.1%

1,924 1,946 1,969 1,993 2,019 2,043

1,804 1,827 1,851 1,877 1,901

1,687 1,707 1,732 1,760 1,782

1,572 1,577 1,598 1,629 1,663

2,336 1,793 1,991 1,832 1,870 1,789 1,740 1,623

1,867

LATIN AMERICA (MILLIONS)

2.0% 9.7% 7.1% 6.0%

24,745 25,919 27,152 28,435 29,762 31,113

19,211 20,272 21,367 22,480 23,595

14,461 15,320 16,271 17,258 18,202

10,027 10,989 11,856 12,736 13,643

9,050 6,855 8,348 9,105 8,569 8,184 8,429 9,138

6,949

PACIFIC (MILLIONS)

10.5% 4.9% 4.5% 4.0%

10,303 10,652 11,011 11,376 11,747 12,127

8,619 8,949 9,283 9,619 9,958

7,049 7,350 7,660 7,977 8,295

5,611 5,889 6,170 6,457 6,753

6,620 4,711 5,860 7,057 6,797 5,806 5,447 5,351

1,320

OTHER INTERNATIONAL (MILLIONS)

Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.

2

Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.

1

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

ATLANTIC (MILLIONS)

FISCAL YEAR

2.9% 6.0% 5.3% 4.7%

49,601 51,615 53,715 55,891 58,137 60,429

40,111 41,929 43,801 45,706 47,627

31,825 33,352 35,000 36,706 38,369

24,222 25,775 27,261 28,775 30,351

24,421 19,100 23,065 25,230 24,262 22,441 22,503 22,858

15,418

TOTAL (MILLIONS)

INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

TABLE 20

78

3,412 3,170 3,108 3,120 3,127 3,123 3,159 3,224 3,322

3,431 3,473 3,502 3,538 3,568 3,603 3,634 3,675 3,707 3,809 3,828 3,851 3,898 3,949 4,020 4,076 4,122 4,162 4,211 4,261 4,314

-0.2% 3.3% 1.4% 1.3%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

2 ENGINE

CALENDAR YEAR Historical 2001

-27.7% 0.0% -100.0% -99.9%

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

2 1 0 0 0

2 2 2 2 2

10 9 8 7 7 5 2 2

187

N/A N/A N/A N/A

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

0

LARGE NARROWBODY 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE

-0.6% 3.3% 1.4% 1.2%

4,076 4,122 4,162 4,211 4,261 4,314

3,828 3,851 3,898 3,949 4,020

3,605 3,635 3,675 3,707 3,809

3,433 3,475 3,504 3,540 3,570

3,181 3,118 3,129 3,135 3,130 3,164 3,226 3,324

3,599

TOTAL

0.6% 3.5% 2.4% 2.6%

715 740 768 793 815 840

636 651 663 674 693

586 605 615 627 625

509 539 560 569 572

471 447 470 471 480 482 473 492

451

2 ENGINE

N/A N/A N/A N/A

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 7 3 0 0 0

89

-7.0% -29.0% N/A N/A

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

22 9 0 0 0

44 42 43 41 40 40 37 31

85

LARGE WIDEBODY 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

TABLE 21

-1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.3%

715 740 768 793 815 840

636 651 663 674 693

586 605 615 627 625

531 548 560 569 572

524 498 522 519 523 522 510 523

625

TOTAL

-0.7% 3.0% 1.4% 1.4%

4,791 4,862 4,930 5,004 5,076 5,154

4,464 4,502 4,561 4,623 4,713

4,191 4,240 4,290 4,334 4,434

3,964 4,023 4,064 4,109 4,142

3,705 3,616 3,651 3,654 3,653 3,686 3,736 3,847

4,224

LARGE JETS

10.0% 2.0% 6.0% 3.0%

185 185 185 185 185 185

181 183 185 187 187

169 171 173 175 178

101 129 139 149 161

79 78 71 76 82 93 98 99

26

REGIONAL JETS

-0.5% 3.0% 1.6% 1.5%

4,976 5,047 5,115 5,189 5,261 5,339

4,645 4,685 4,746 4,810 4,900

4,360 4,411 4,463 4,509 4,612

4,065 4,152 4,203 4,258 4,303

3,784 3,694 3,722 3,730 3,735 3,779 3,834 3,946

4,250

TOTAL JETS

79

180 163 154 153 176 187 192 216 225

227 232 237 241 247 250 255 244 256 258 262 271 273 275 277 279 280 283 284 286 287

1.6% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

2 ENGINE

CALENDAR YEAR Historical 2001

-18.7% 0.0% N/A N/A

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

16 11 10 9 0

19 19 19 19 17

116 107 104 89 67 15 14 19

343

N/A N/A N/A N/A

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

29 30 31 26 12 2 0 0

143

LARGE NARROWBODY 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE

-6.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8%

279 280 283 284 286 287

262 271 273 275 277

266 266 254 265 258

246 251 256 260 264

308 291 288 291 266 209 230 244

666

TOTAL

3.5% 1.0% 4.3% 3.7%

569 589 609 629 649 668

485 500 517 532 549

411 427 441 455 469

312 328 349 372 395

274 253 265 281 292 296 294 309

190

2 ENGINE

CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

-1.5% -4.5% -5.5% -5.3%

71 66 62 58 54 50

87 85 82 80 75

98 95 93 91 89

149 139 126 113 100

207 196 200 203 188 175 170 156

192

-1.2% 0.0% 1.4% 2.0%

97 99 102 104 107 109

84 87 89 92 94

77 78 80 81 83

72 73 73 74 75

82 82 97 96 93 64 69 72

85

LARGE WIDEBODY 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

TABLE 22

1.0% -0.7% 1.8% 2.1%

737 754 773 791 810 827

656 672 688 704 718

586 600 614 627 641

533 540 548 559 570

563 531 562 580 573 535 533 537

467

TOTAL

-2.6% -0.3% 1.4% 1.7%

1,016 1,034 1,056 1,075 1,096 1,114

918 943 961 979 995

852 866 868 892 899

779 791 804 819 834

871 822 850 871 839 744 763 781

1,133

TOTAL

80

13,397 11,896 11,973 12,092 12,124 12,044 12,167 12,542

12,834 12,973 13,136 13,273 13,393 13,489 13,555 13,602 13,672 13,770 13,881 13,995 14,136 14,282 14,422 14,563 14,708 14,852 14,989 15,125 15,260

-1.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

0.7% -0.2% 2.6% 2.4%

9,545 9,749 9,956 10,165 10,375 10,586

8,525 8,728 8,933 9,137 9,340

7,511 7,714 7,919 8,124 8,325

6,459 6,664 6,877 7,092 7,308

6,499 6,033 6,290 6,547 6,595 6,418 6,348 6,471

5,893

-0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

24,108 24,457 24,808 25,154 25,500 25,845

22,407 22,723 23,068 23,419 23,762

21,000 21,269 21,521 21,796 22,095

19,293 19,637 20,014 20,365 20,701

19,896 17,929 18,263 18,639 18,720 18,461 18,514 19,013

21,243

3.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.1%

2,056 2,096 2,137 2,177 2,224 2,267

1,871 1,903 1,939 1,978 2,017

1,702 1,734 1,766 1,800 1,836

1,497 1,536 1,576 1,617 1,660

1,706 1,447 1,435 1,456 1,435 1,260 1,466 1,471

918

GENERAL AVIATION

-0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5%

26,164 26,553 26,945 27,331 27,724 28,112

24,278 24,626 25,007 25,397 25,779

22,702 23,003 23,287 23,597 23,931

20,789 21,173 21,590 21,982 22,361

21,602 19,376 19,698 20,095 20,155 19,721 19,981 20,485

22,162

TOTAL

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2

-2.1% -0.7% -0.1% 0.0%

207 208 208 208 209 209

207 206 207 207 207

206 206 206 206 207

207 206 206 206 206

248 227 221 216 206 197 210 208

279

-3.3% -0.7% -0.1% 0.0%

209 210 210 210 211 211

209 208 209 209 209

208 208 208 208 209

209 208 208 208 208

250 229 223 218 208 199 212 210

335

AVIATION GASOLINE AIR GENERAL CARRIER AVIATION TOTAL

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates. 1 Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers. 2 Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier

15,350

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

JET FUEL U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2 DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

(Millions of Gallons)

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

-0.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5%

26,373 26,762 27,155 27,542 27,935 28,323

24,486 24,834 25,216 25,606 25,988

22,911 23,211 23,495 23,805 24,139

20,998 21,381 21,798 22,190 22,569

21,852 19,606 19,921 20,313 20,363 19,920 20,192 20,695

21,350

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

TABLE 23

81

61 62 63 64 64 65 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 70 70 71 71 72 72

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

62 62 63 63 63 64

61 61 61 61 62

59 59 60 60 60

58 58 58 58 59

53 53 53 53 55 55 57 57

43

2.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9%

70 70 71 71 72 72

67 68 68 69 69

65 65 66 66 67

61 62 63 63 64

53 55 56 56 56 56 57 60

41

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation. ** Reporting carriers.

2.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9%

53 55 56 56 56 56 57 60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

40

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)

3.3% -0.4% 0.3% 0.4%

503 505 507 509 511 513

493 495 497 499 501

484 486 488 490 491

474 476 478 480 482

461 457 464 467 467 469 473 475

302

6.1% -0.4% 0.3% 0.4%

732 735 738 740 743 746

717 720 723 726 729

703 706 709 711 714

688 691 694 697 700

533 512 503 531 606 641 669 691

303

3.3% -0.4% 0.3% 0.4%

507 509 511 513 515 517

497 499 501 503 505

487 489 491 493 495

477 479 481 483 485

462 458 465 468 470 472 477 479

302

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

-6.6% -2.3% 2.5% 2.0%

17.11 17.36 17.64 17.93 18.24 18.54

15.83 16.10 16.36 16.61 16.85

13.90 14.32 14.79 15.21 15.55

11.89 12.55 12.87 13.20 13.54

21.04 17.04 15.74 15.10 13.16 11.66 11.39 12.17

31.65

-8.5% -3.2% 0.1% -0.3%

11.79 11.69 11.62 11.54 11.47 11.39

12.22 12.15 12.07 11.98 11.88

12.16 12.20 12.27 12.30 12.28

11.78 12.10 12.11 12.14 12.15

23.23 18.88 17.14 16.03 13.64 11.88 11.42 12.17

42.52

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE** CURRENT $ 2015 $ (Cents) (Cents)

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE 24

82

3

80 159 154 162 162 159 155 154 153

154 158 161 165 168 170 173 175 177 180 183 186 190 193 197 201 206 210 214 218 223

4.7% 0.7% 1.6% 1.8%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

-2.4% 0.7% 1.6% 1.8%

3 3 3 3 3 3

3 3 3 3 3

2 3 3 3 3

2 2 2 2 2

4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2

REVENUE PASSENGERS INTERNATIONAL

DOMESTIC

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

4.5% 0.7% 1.6% 1.8%

204 209 213 217 221 226

185 189 192 196 200

173 175 177 180 182

156 160 164 167 170

163 157 164 164 162 158 157 155

84

TOTAL

(In Millions)

8.1% 0.3% 2.0% 2.2%

101,365 103,888 106,478 109,046 111,641 114,288

90,208 92,118 94,313 96,630 98,942

82,363 83,835 85,154 86,635 88,349

72,999 74,910 77,018 78,974 80,734

73,305 70,374 75,030 75,513 74,330 72,956 72,953 72,753

24,299

3.6% 0.3% 2.0% 2.2%

2,156 2,210 2,265 2,320 2,375 2,431

1,919 1,960 2,006 2,056 2,105

1,752 1,783 1,812 1,843 1,879

1,553 1,594 1,638 1,680 1,717

1,867 1,304 1,347 1,270 1,856 1,851 1,926 1,548

947

8.0% 0.3% 2.0% 2.2%

103,521 106,098 108,743 111,365 114,016 116,719

92,127 94,078 96,320 98,686 101,047

84,115 85,619 86,965 88,478 90,228

74,552 76,503 78,656 80,654 82,452

75,172 71,678 76,377 76,783 76,187 74,807 74,878 74,301

25,246

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

TABLE 25

83

90,661 92,988 95,560 97,945 100,086 102,065 103,851 105,448 107,247 109,334 111,601 113,932 116,616 119,450 122,277 125,242 128,331 131,502 134,646 137,824 141,064

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

8.1% 0.3% 2.0% 2.2%

101,365 103,888 106,478 109,046 111,641 114,288

90,208 92,118 94,313 96,630 98,942

82,363 83,835 85,154 86,635 88,349

72,999 74,910 77,018 78,974 80,734

80.9 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0

80.8 80.9 80.9 80.9 80.9

80.7 80.7 80.8 80.8 80.8

80.5 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.7

73.7 74.3 76.2 76.2 77.6 78.4 80.0 80.2

58.7

% LOAD FACTOR

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

5.8% 0.0% 1.9% 2.1%

99,469 94,664 98,461 99,075 95,748 93,084 91,169 90,679

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

24,299

41,418 73,305 70,374 75,030 75,513 74,330 72,956 72,953 72,753

DOMESTIC RPMs (MIL)

ASMs (MIL)

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

1.8% 0.0% 1.9% 2.1%

2,905 2,977 3,050 3,123 3,197 3,272

2,589 2,643 2,705 2,771 2,836

2,367 2,409 2,446 2,488 2,536

2,103 2,157 2,217 2,272 2,321

2,632 1,859 1,857 1,818 2,595 2,448 2,560 2,103

1,633

ASMs (MIL)

3.6% 0.3% 2.0% 2.2%

2,156 2,210 2,265 2,320 2,375 2,431

1,919 1,960 2,006 2,056 2,105

1,752 1,783 1,812 1,843 1,879

1,553 1,594 1,638 1,680 1,717

1,867 1,304 1,347 1,270 1,856 1,851 1,926 1,548

947

1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

74.2 74.2 74.3 74.3 74.3 74.3

74.1 74.2 74.2 74.2 74.2

74.0 74.0 74.1 74.1 74.1

73.8 73.9 73.9 74.0 74.0

70.9 70.2 72.5 69.9 71.5 75.6 75.2 73.6

58.0

INTERNATIONAL RPMs % LOAD (MIL) FACTOR

5.6% 0.0% 1.9% 2.1%

128,147 131,308 134,552 137,769 141,020 144,336

114,189 116,575 119,321 122,221 125,114

104,432 106,260 107,894 109,735 111,870

92,764 95,145 97,777 100,216 102,407

102,101 96,523 100,318 100,893 98,343 95,532 93,729 92,782

43,051

ASMs (MIL)

8.0% 0.3% 2.0% 2.2%

103,521 106,098 108,743 111,365 114,016 116,719

92,127 94,078 96,320 98,686 101,047

84,115 85,619 86,965 88,478 90,228

74,552 76,503 78,656 80,654 82,452

75,172 71,678 76,377 76,783 76,187 74,807 74,878 74,301

25,246

TOTAL RPMs (MIL)

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

TABLE 26

80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.9 80.9

80.7 80.7 80.7 80.7 80.8

80.5 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.7

80.4 80.4 80.4 80.5 80.5

73.6 74.3 76.1 76.1 77.5 78.3 79.9 80.1

58.6

% LOAD FACTOR

84

337 322 198 187 181 171 165 157 150 142 132 124 117 111 103 95 87 78 70 62 54

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

-8.9% -2.9% -4.3% -6.4%

29 27 24 22 19 17

41 39 36 34 32

53 51 49 46 44

66 63 61 58 56

-19.0% 0.0% -4.7% -6.7%

6 5 5 4 4 3

8 7 7 7 6

10 10 9 9 8

13 12 12 11 11

68 65 82 67 55 52 56 13

248

20 TO 30 SEATS

-17.1% -3.1% -4.1% -6.4%

14 13 11 10 9 8

19 18 17 16 15

25 24 23 22 21

31 30 29 27 26

180 153 144 113 115 37 32 32

445

PROP

N/A N/A N/A N/A

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

25 29 28 27 23 0 0 0

110

-18.4% -3.1% -4.1% -6.4%

14 13 11 10 9 8

19 18 17 16 15

25 24 23 22 21

31 30 29 27 26

205 182 172 140 138 37 32 32

555

-6.6% 3.5% 2.9% 2.4%

86 88 89 91 92 93

78 80 81 83 85

69 71 72 74 76

59 61 63 65 67

121 115 99 135 104 51 56 57

148

PROP

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT 31 TO 40 SEATS JET TOTAL

Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association through 2004. *Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.

-2.5% -2.6% -8.5% -8.5%

451 466 440 447 394 337 321 346

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

250

490 107 103 92 94 90 94 90 68

10 TO 19 SEATS

LESS THAN 9 SEATS

AS OF JANUARY 1 Historical 2001

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

TABLE 27

6.5% -6.2% -1.3% 0.4%

1,612 1,650 1,686 1,718 1,751 1,786

1,460 1,488 1,524 1,550 1,580

1,384 1,375 1,399 1,414 1,430

1,527 1,522 1,474 1,453 1,420

1,730 1,722 1,728 1,683 1,559 1,642 1,602 1,628

672

5.3% -5.9% -1.1% 0.5%

1,698 1,738 1,775 1,809 1,843 1,879

1,538 1,568 1,605 1,633 1,665

1,453 1,446 1,471 1,488 1,506

1,586 1,583 1,537 1,518 1,487

1,851 1,837 1,827 1,818 1,663 1,693 1,658 1,685

820

OVER 40 SEATS JET* TOTAL

-7.7% -1.9% -5.6% -5.0%

230 220 207 197 186 175

278 268 258 251 241

328 321 310 301 291

506 488 363 348 341

927 902 857 857 758 571 555 516

1,581

NON JET

5.4% -6.2% -1.3% 0.4%

1,612 1,650 1,686 1,718 1,751 1,786

1,460 1,488 1,524 1,550 1,580

1,384 1,375 1,399 1,414 1,430

1,527 1,522 1,474 1,453 1,420

1,755 1,751 1,756 1,710 1,582 1,642 1,602 1,628

782

-0.7% -5.2% -2.2% -0.4%

1,842 1,870 1,893 1,915 1,937 1,961

1,738 1,756 1,782 1,801 1,821

1,712 1,696 1,709 1,715 1,721

2,033 2,010 1,837 1,801 1,761

2,682 2,653 2,613 2,567 2,340 2,213 2,157 2,144

2,363

TOTAL FLEET JET TOTAL

85

18,192

SINGLE ENGINE

145,034

145,497 140,649 139,519 136,895 128,847 124,398 126,036 125,050

124,055 123,140 122,245 121,365 120,485

119,585 118,690 117,785 116,875 115,960

115,045 114,130 113,225 112,345 111,495

110,685 109,905 109,155 108,445 107,780 107,160

AS OF DEC. 31 Historical* 2001

2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

122,780 121,920 121,085 120,295 119,545 118,855

127,525 126,550 125,565 124,605 123,670

132,345 131,405 130,440 129,470 128,505

137,080 136,095 135,150 134,220 133,295

163,012 157,123 155,419 152,597 143,160 137,655 139,182 138,135

163,226

TOTAL

10,990 11,295 11,610 11,935 12,280 12,635

9,775 9,985 10,205 10,440 10,705

9,215 9,270 9,350 9,465 9,600

9,420 9,310 9,235 9,195 9,190

8,907 9,055 9,369 9,523 10,304 9,619 9,777 9,570

6,596

TURBO PROP

FIXED WING

18,015 18,520 19,045 19,600 20,175 20,770

15,735 16,150 16,580 17,040 17,520

13,975 14,285 14,610 14,965 15,340

12,635 12,870 13,125 13,395 13,680

11,042 11,268 11,484 11,650 11,793 11,637 12,362 12,475

7,787

TURBINE TURBO JET

29,005 29,815 30,655 31,535 32,455 33,405

25,510 26,135 26,785 27,480 28,225

23,190 23,555 23,960 24,430 24,940

22,055 22,180 22,360 22,590 22,870

19,949 20,323 20,853 21,173 22,097 21,256 22,139 22,045

14,383

TOTAL

4,570 4,655 4,740 4,825 4,915 5,005

4,170 4,250 4,330 4,410 4,490

3,770 3,850 3,930 4,010 4,090

3,340 3,435 3,525 3,610 3,690

3,498 3,499 3,588 3,411 3,292 3,137 3,154 3,245

2,292

10,160 10,365 10,580 10,795 11,020 11,250

9,185 9,380 9,575 9,770 9,960

8,215 8,410 8,605 8,795 8,990

7,200 7,410 7,615 7,820 8,020

6,378 6,485 6,514 6,671 6,763 6,628 6,812 6,995

4,491

14,730 15,020 15,320 15,620 15,935 16,255

13,355 13,630 13,905 14,180 14,450

11,985 12,260 12,535 12,805 13,080

10,540 10,845 11,140 11,430 11,710

9,876 9,984 10,102 10,082 10,055 9,765 9,966 10,240

6,783

ROTORCRAFT PISTON TURBINE TOTAL

30,155 30,455 30,755 31,090 31,365 31,640

28,735 29,010 29,340 29,525 29,850

27,690 27,925 28,060 28,310 28,500

26,590 26,850 27,055 27,270 27,485

23,364 24,419 24,784 24,275 26,715 24,918 26,191 26,435

20,421

5,275 5,445 5,610 5,775 5,940 6,100

4,410 4,585 4,760 4,935 5,110

3,490 3,675 3,860 4,040 4,230

2,590 2,770 2,945 3,130 3,310

6,811 6,547 6,528 6,645 2,001 2,056 2,231 2,410

N/A

-2.6% -1.0% -0.3% -0.2%

4,465 4,465 4,460 4,445 4,445 4,440

4,495 4,485 4,480 4,465 4,470

4,525 4,520 4,510 4,500 4,490

4,570 4,560 4,550 4,545 4,525

5,652 5,480 5,684 5,681 5,006 4,277 4,699 4,615

6,633

EXPERISPORT MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 -1.1% -2.3% -1.2% 2.7% 3.4% 3.1% 2.5% 3.2% 3.0% 1.9% N/A 2015-16 -0.8% -0.5% -0.8% -1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 0.6% 7.5% 2015-25 -0.8% -0.4% -0.7% 0.0% 2.1% 1.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 0.8% 5.8% 2015-36 -0.7% -0.5% -0.7% 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 0.9% 4.5% * Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. **Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.

12,095 12,015 11,930 11,850 11,765 11,695

12,480 12,420 12,340 12,260 12,175

12,760 12,715 12,655 12,595 12,545

13,025 12,955 12,905 12,855 12,810

17,515 16,474 15,900 15,702 14,313 13,257 13,146 13,085

PISTON MULTIENGINE

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

TABLE 28

-0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2%

206,410 207,120 207,885 208,760 209,685 210,695

204,030 204,395 204,835 205,190 205,775

203,225 203,340 203,365 203,555 203,745

203,425 203,300 203,200 203,185 203,195

228,664 223,876 223,370 220,453 209,034 199,927 204,408 203,880

211,446

TOTAL GENERAL AVIATION FLEET

-1.1% -0.7% -0.6% -0.6%

127,350 126,575 125,825 125,120 124,460 123,860

131,695 130,800 129,895 129,015 128,160

136,115 135,255 134,370 133,480 132,595

140,420 139,530 138,675 137,830 136,985

166,510 160,622 159,007 156,008 146,452 140,792 142,336 141,380

165,518

TOTAL PISTONS

3.1% 0.7% 1.6% 2.1%

39,165 40,180 41,235 42,330 43,475 44,655

34,695 35,515 36,360 37,250 38,185

31,405 31,965 32,565 33,225 33,930

29,255 29,590 29,975 30,410 30,890

26,327 26,808 27,367 27,844 28,860 27,884 28,951 29,040

18,874

TOTAL TURBINES

86

2,644

SINGLE ENGINE

16,549

12,746 11,730 12,161 11,844 11,442 10,706 10,395 10,312

10,225 10,151 10,084 10,023 9,946

9,879 9,800 9,724 9,650 9,596

9,536 9,483 9,424 9,368 9,321

9,285 9,240 9,197 9,158 9,146 9,119

CALENDAR YEAR Historical* 2001

2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

10,780 10,738 10,697 10,660 10,649 10,623

11,025 10,974 10,916 10,863 10,817

11,377 11,295 11,217 11,141 11,086

11,767 11,681 11,603 11,532 11,451

15,074 13,634 13,979 13,626 13,207 12,352 11,967 11,867

19,193

TOTAL

3,113 3,198 3,288 3,379 3,478 3,575

2,764 2,824 2,885 2,954 3,032

2,589 2,611 2,639 2,671 2,710

2,564 2,556 2,554 2,561 2,570

2,457 2,215 2,325 2,463 2,733 2,587 2,613 2,582

1,773

6,425 6,610 6,800 6,994 7,216 7,422

5,548 5,707 5,877 6,056 6,236

4,771 4,921 5,068 5,227 5,389

4,016 4,164 4,315 4,464 4,619

3,600 3,161 3,375 3,407 3,418 3,488 3,881 3,913

2,654

9,538 9,808 10,087 10,373 10,694 10,997

8,311 8,531 8,762 9,010 9,268

7,361 7,531 7,707 7,899 8,099

6,580 6,720 6,869 7,025 7,189

6,057 5,376 5,700 5,870 6,151 6,076 6,494 6,495

4,427

TURBINE TURBO TURBO PROP JET TOTAL

FIXED WING

1,044 1,064 1,085 1,105 1,127 1,149

940 962 984 1,004 1,024

824 849 873 896 918

739 737 756 774 799

751 755 794 757 731 636 818 748

474

3,861 3,941 4,024 4,107 4,193 4,281

3,475 3,553 3,630 3,707 3,783

3,061 3,150 3,239 3,317 3,396

2,585 2,680 2,775 2,871 2,967

2,470 2,248 2,611 2,654 2,723 2,312 2,424 2,493

1,478

4,905 5,005 5,109 5,212 5,321 5,430

4,415 4,515 4,614 4,712 4,807

3,885 3,999 4,112 4,213 4,313

3,323 3,417 3,531 3,645 3,766

3,222 3,003 3,405 3,411 3,454 2,949 3,242 3,240

1,952

ROTORCRAFT PISTON TURBINE TOTAL

1,722 1,753 1,784 1,818 1,849 1,876

1,564 1,598 1,632 1,659 1,691

1,418 1,448 1,473 1,505 1,533

1,283 1,311 1,337 1,364 1,391

1,155 1,286 1,226 1,203 1,243 1,191 1,244 1,260

1,157

426 442 457 473 489 505

347 363 379 394 410

268 284 299 315 331

194 208 223 238 253

293 286 311 278 169 173 165 180

N/A

-4.4% -1.0% -0.2% -0.1%

151 151 151 150 150 150

151 151 151 151 151

152 151 151 151 151

152 152 152 152 152

209 178 181 181 180 135 158 154

287

EXPERISPORT MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 -3.3% -3.7% -3.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.8% 3.7% 0.6% N/A 2015-16 -0.8% -0.9% -0.8% -0.7% 2.6% 1.3% -1.2% 3.7% 2.6% 1.8% 8.0% 2015-25 -0.7% -0.4% -0.7% 0.5% 3.3% 2.2% 2.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.0% 6.3% 2015-36 -0.6% -0.2% -0.5% 1.6% 3.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 5.0% * Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. **Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.

1,496 1,498 1,500 1,502 1,503 1,505

1,489 1,491 1,492 1,494 1,496

1,497 1,495 1,492 1,490 1,489

1,541 1,530 1,519 1,510 1,505

2,328 1,903 1,818 1,782 1,766 1,646 1,573 1,555

PISTON MULTIENGINE

(In Thousands)

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

TABLE 29

-1.1% 0.4% 1.0% 1.2%

27,521 27,896 28,285 28,687 29,152 29,582

25,813 26,133 26,454 26,788 27,143

24,461 24,708 24,960 25,223 25,513

23,300 23,490 23,714 23,956 24,201

26,009 23,763 24,802 24,570 24,404 22,876 23,271 23,196

27,016

TOTAL GENERAL AVIATION HOURS

-3.1% -0.9% -0.5% -0.3%

11,824 11,802 11,781 11,766 11,776 11,772

11,965 11,937 11,900 11,867 11,841

12,201 12,144 12,090 12,036 12,003

12,505 12,417 12,359 12,307 12,250

15,825 14,389 14,773 14,383 13,938 12,989 12,786 12,615

19,667

TOTAL PISTONS

3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6%

13,399 13,749 14,112 14,480 14,887 15,278

11,786 12,084 12,392 12,717 13,050

10,422 10,681 10,946 11,216 11,494

9,165 9,401 9,644 9,896 10,155

8,527 7,624 8,311 8,524 8,874 8,388 8,918 8,988

5,905

TOTAL TURBINES

87 -3.6% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3%

180 180 180 180 180 180

180 180 180 180 180

185 185 185 185 185

190 190 190 190 190

N/A 7.6% 5.9% 4.8%

12,450 12,900 13,300 13,700 14,150 14,600

10,200 10,650 11,100 11,550 12,000

8,000 8,400 8,850 9,300 9,750

5,900 6,350 6,850 7,200 7,600

2,623 3,248 3,682 4,066 4,493 4,824 5,157 5,482

N/A

SPORT PILOT

-2.5% -0.2% -0.9% -0.6%

152,500 152,150 151,600 151,150 150,600 150,200

155,100 154,350 153,750 153,300 152,850

163,600 161,650 159,300 157,350 156,000

170,450 168,250 165,950 164,050 164,350

222,596 211,619 202,020 194,441 188,001 180,214 174,883 170,718

243,823

-1.2% -2.4% -1.1% -0.6%

89,300 89,200 89,150 89,100 89,000 88,950

90,050 89,850 89,700 89,550 89,400

92,200 91,550 91,050 90,650 90,350

98,700 96,750 95,200 94,000 93,000

124,746 125,738 123,705 120,865 116,400 108,206 104,322 101,164

120,502

0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%

163,800 164,800 165,700 166,600 167,600 168,600

159,300 160,000 160,900 161,800 162,800

156,600 156,900 157,300 157,800 158,600

155,000 155,400 155,400 155,700 156,200

146,838 144,600 142,198 142,511 145,590 149,824 152,933 154,730

144,702

AIRLINE PRIVATE COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT

5.1% 0.1% 1.7% 2.2%

21,555 22,105 22,665 23,235 23,820 24,420

18,935 19,440 19,960 20,485 21,015

16,685 17,080 17,510 17,965 18,440

15,575 15,645 15,800 16,035 16,330

14,647 15,298 15,377 15,220 15,126 15,114 15,511 15,566

7,727

ROTORCRAFT ONLY

6.1% -1.0% -0.3% -0.2%

18,835 18,860 18,875 18,830 18,835 18,825

18,860 18,795 18,810 18,790 18,835

19,025 18,965 19,010 18,980 18,915

19,270 19,240 19,190 19,095 19,075

21,055 21,268 21,275 21,141 20,802 20,381 19,927 19,460

8,473

GLIDER ONLY

-0.4% -0.2% -0.2% 0.1%

588,970 590,845 592,470 594,045 595,735 597,575

581,125 582,165 583,700 585,305 587,080

582,895 581,730 580,605 579,980 580,390

588,985 586,475 583,780 581,970 582,895

613,746 594,285 627,588 617,128 610,576 599,086 593,499 590,039

619,963

TOTAL PILOTS

-0.6% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1%

425,170 426,045 426,770 427,445 428,135 428,975

421,825 422,165 422,800 423,505 424,280

426,295 424,830 423,305 422,180 421,790

433,985 431,075 428,380 426,270 426,695

466,908 449,685 485,390 474,617 464,986 449,262 440,566 435,309

475,261

TOTAL LESS AT PILOTS

* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics. 1 Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total. 2 In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 to 60 months. This resulted in the increase in active student pilots to 119,119 from 72,280 at the end of 2009. Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.

1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3%

130,350 130,650 131,000 131,250 131,550 131,800

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

128,500 128,900 129,300 129,650 130,000

123,900 124,650 125,200 125,700 126,150

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

80,989 72,280 119,119 2 118,657 119,946 120,285 120,546 122,729

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

126,600 127,000 127,400 127,750 128,150

94,420

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

316

STUDENTS

252 234 212 227 218 238 220 190

RECREATIONAL

AS OF DEC. 31 Historical* 2001

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE

TABLE 30

-0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

307,700 308,500 309,150 309,850 310,550 311,300

304,550 305,000 305,650 306,300 307,000

304,300 304,150 303,950 303,900 304,100

304,400 303,900 303,450 303,250 303,950

325,247 323,495 318,001 314,122 311,952 307,120 306,066 304,329

315,276

INSTRUMENT RATED PILOTS1

88

143 132 133 130 126 117 120 119

118 117 116 115 114 113 113 111 111 110 109 108 107 106 106 105 104 103 103 102 101

2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

45 45 45 45 45 45

45 45 45 45 45

46 46 45 45 45

47 47 46 46 46

69 57 54 53 54 54 48 48

76

219 225 230 235 241 247

199 201 205 210 214

190 191 192 193 196

192 191 190 189 190

230 209 187 195 209 189 199 196

149

1,643 1,674 1,705 1,736 1,773 1,805

1,492 1,520 1,549 1,580 1,611

1,350 1,378 1,405 1,435 1,464

1,165 1,202 1,239 1,275 1,313

1,313 1,105 1,123 1,125 1,077 945 1,135 1,140

727

14 14 14 15 15 15

13 13 13 13 14

11 11 12 12 12

10 10 10 10 11

11 11 11 10 10 9 11 10

7

194 198 202 206 210 215

180 182 185 188 192

162 165 169 172 175

140 143 148 152 157

162 134 125 136 149 126 132 135

43

ROTORCRAFT PISTON TURBINE

41 42 43 43 44 45

38 38 39 40 40

35 35 36 37 37

31 31 32 33 34

23 26 22 21 16 16 29 31

15

EXPERIMENTAL**/ OTHER

2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2

1 1 1 2 2

1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

N/A

SPORT**

207 208 208 208 209 209

207 206 207 207 207

206 206 206 206 207

207 206 206 206 206

248 227 221 216 206 197 210 208

279

3.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.1%

2,056 2,096 2,137 2,177 2,224 2,267

1,871 1,903 1,939 1,978 2,017

1,702 1,734 1,766 1,800 1,836

1,497 1,536 1,576 1,617 1,660

1,706 1,447 1,435 1,456 1,435 1,260 1,466 1,471

918

2.4% 1.4% 2.0% 1.9%

2,264 2,304 2,344 2,385 2,433 2,476

2,077 2,109 2,146 2,184 2,224

1,908 1,940 1,972 2,006 2,042

1,704 1,742 1,782 1,823 1,866

1,954 1,674 1,656 1,672 1,641 1,457 1,676 1,680

1,198

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED JET AVGAS FUEL TOTAL

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 -2.9% -3.3% 2.0% 3.3% 2.5% 8.6% 5.1% N/A -2.1% 2015-16 -1.0% -0.9% -1.7% 2.1% -1.4% 3.2% 1.1% 8.0% -0.7% 2015-25 -0.8% -0.5% 0.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 6.1% -0.1% 2015-36 -0.8% -0.2% 1.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 1.8% 4.9% 0.0% *Source: FAA APO Estimates. **Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.

180

CALENDAR YEAR Historical* 2001

FIXED WING PISTON TURBINE SINGLE MULTITURBOTURBOENGINE ENGINE PROP JET

(In Millions of Gallons)

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

TABLE 31

89

13,780 12,836 12,658 12,866 12,873 12,776 13,015 13,755

14,498 15,000 15,562 16,168 16,834 17,561 18,350 18,980 19,373 19,706 20,053 20,403 20,751 21,096 21,440 21,786 22,147 22,518 22,906 23,299 23,695

-0.5% 5.4% 3.7% 2.6%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

10,882

14,763

-2.3% -5.0% -3.4% -1.1%

5,902 5,958 6,016 6,075 6,137 6,199

5,631 5,685 5,738 5,792 5,847

6,294 5,837 5,544 5,528 5,579

7,499 7,390 7,177 6,916 6,641

11,032 9,521 9,410 9,279 8,994 8,803 8,440 7,895

AIR TAXI/ COMMUTER

AIR CARRIER

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

-3.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%

14,522 14,566 14,609 14,653 14,698 14,742

14,309 14,351 14,393 14,436 14,479

14,103 14,144 14,184 14,226 14,267

13,903 13,942 13,982 14,022 14,062

17,493 15,571 14,864 14,528 14,522 14,117 13,979 13,887

21,433

-2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%

12,509 12,561 12,613 12,666 12,719 12,772

12,255 12,305 12,355 12,406 12,457

12,011 12,059 12,108 12,156 12,206

11,776 11,822 11,869 11,916 11,963

14,081 12,448 11,716 11,437 11,608 11,688 11,675 11,691

16,194

-2.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

27,031 27,126 27,222 27,319 27,416 27,514

26,564 26,656 26,749 26,842 26,936

26,114 26,203 26,292 26,382 26,473

25,679 25,765 25,851 25,938 26,026

31,574 28,019 26,580 25,965 26,130 25,806 25,654 25,578

37,626

GENERAL AVIATION ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL

-1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292

1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292

1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292

1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292

1,285 1,305 1,309 1,319 1,309 1,275 1,270 1,292

1,479

ITINERANT

(In Thousands)

-1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203

1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203

1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203

1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203 1,203

1,246 1,280 1,298 1,311 1,270 1,276 1,245 1,203

1,438

MILITARY LOCAL

-1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495

2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495

2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495

2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495

2,531 2,586 2,607 2,630 2,579 2,552 2,515 2,495

2,917

TOTAL

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

TABLE 32

-2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

57,214 57,726 58,251 58,795 59,348 59,904

54,743 55,239 55,733 56,225 56,719

52,464 52,885 53,311 53,778 54,253

50,172 50,651 51,086 51,517 51,996

58,917 52,962 51,255 51,123 50,755 50,057 49,624 49,723

66,188

TOTAL

264 264 264 264 264 264

264 264 264 264 264

264 264 264 264 264

264 264 264 264 264

264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264

266

252 252 252 252 252 252

252 252 252 252 252

252 252 252 252 252

252 252 252 252 252

239 244 244 248 250 252 252 252

206

NUMBER OF TOWERS FAA CONTRACT

90

14,443 13,302 13,174 13,068 13,045 12,914 13,186 13,964

14,702 15,203 15,761 16,362 17,024 17,745 18,525 19,150 19,544 19,879 20,228 20,580 20,930 21,277 21,624 21,973 22,335 22,709 23,099 23,495 23,894

-0.9% 5.3% 3.6% 2.6%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

11,308

15,879

-2.6% -5.6% -3.9% -1.4%

5,593 5,648 5,707 5,767 5,830 5,894

5,323 5,377 5,431 5,484 5,539

6,080 5,572 5,244 5,221 5,272

7,426 7,303 7,064 6,771 6,465

11,048 9,623 9,511 9,349 8,977 8,797 8,390 7,864

AIR TAXI/ COMMUTER

AIR CARRIER

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

-2.7% -0.3% 0.4% 0.4%

13,944 14,010 14,078 14,147 14,217 14,288

13,622 13,686 13,750 13,814 13,879

13,328 13,380 13,434 13,495 13,558

13,040 13,101 13,156 13,211 13,270

15,763 14,151 13,864 13,503 13,424 13,048 13,018 13,079

19,270

GENERAL AVIATION

(In Thousands)

-2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286

2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286

2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286

2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286

2,400 2,399 2,438 2,375 2,332 2,225 2,229 2,286

3,465

MILITARY

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

TABLE 33

-2.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1%

43,795 44,279 44,780 45,300 45,829 46,361

41,459 41,929 42,397 42,862 43,327

39,439 39,763 40,115 40,547 40,995

37,455 37,893 38,267 38,631 39,045

43,654 39,475 38,987 38,295 37,778 36,984 36,823 37,193

49,921

TOTAL

91

23,895 22,407 22,342 23,432 23,651 23,205 24,267 25,270

25,975 26,692 27,371 28,049 28,771 29,456 30,097 30,767 31,511 32,237 32,885 33,548 34,219 34,895 35,570 36,207 36,861 37,534 38,229 38,929 39,631

0.1% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Avg Annual Growth 2001-15 2015-16 2015-25 2015-36

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity

8,303

24,866

-0.4% -1.7% -2.1% -1.0%

6,241 6,263 6,286 6,310 6,345 6,388

6,320 6,299 6,274 6,244 6,220

6,944 6,780 6,614 6,456 6,339

7,711 7,579 7,424 7,257 7,089

10,179 8,562 8,624 9,010 8,932 8,673 8,507 7,847

AIR TAXI/ COMMUTER

AIR CARRIER

FISCAL YEAR Historical 2001

-1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7%

7,746 7,803 7,863 7,927 7,994 8,063

7,475 7,528 7,582 7,635 7,690

7,281 7,307 7,338 7,380 7,425

7,061 7,119 7,161 7,198 7,242

7,671 6,332 6,550 6,557 6,472 6,440 6,741 7,007

8,025

-5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795

1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795

1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795

1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795

3,649 2,993 2,982 2,228 1,860 1,676 1,830 1,795

4,039

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY

(In Thousands)

TOTAL

-0.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4%

51,988 52,722 53,477 54,261 55,064 55,876

48,476 49,170 49,869 50,570 51,276

45,475 45,978 46,513 47,142 47,796

42,541 43,185 43,751 44,299 44,897

45,394 40,293 40,498 41,227 40,915 39,994 41,346 41,918

45,232

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

TABLE 34