Asia Pacific Countries’ Security Outlook and Its Implications for the Defense Sector
The National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan
NIDS JOINT RESEARCH SERIES No. 5
Published by: The National Institute for Defense Studies 2-2-1 Nakameguro, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8648, Japan Phone: +81-3-5721-7005 (ext. 6588) Fax: +81-3-3713-6149 E-mail:
[email protected] Website: http://www.nids.go.jp ISBN : 978-4-939034-73-2 The views expressed in this publication are solely of the authors, and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions or governments of the authors. Copyright © 2010 The National Institute for Defense Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system or be transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the written permission from the publisher. Printed by Urban Connections
Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................1 Eiichi Katahara CHAPTER 1 ..............................................................................................................3 Indonesia’s Security Outlook, Defence Policy and Regional Cooperation Rizal SUKMA Introduction.................................................................................................................. 3 Indonesia’s Security Challenges: Internal Security, NTS and External Threats........ 4 Implications for Defence: Policy, Force Structure and Procurements........................ 9 Regional Cooperation: Diplomacy as the First Line of Defence.............................. 21 Conclusion................................................................................................................. 23
CHAPTER 2..............................................................................................................25 Malaysia’s Security Outlook and Challenges Tang Siew Mun Introduction................................................................................................................ 25 Overview of Malaysia’s Strategic Outlook............................................................... 26 Security Challenges: Upholding Sovereignty to Human Security............................. 28 Funding Security in Times of Economic Downturn................................................. 34 Conclusion................................................................................................................. 35
CHAPTER 3..............................................................................................................37 The Philippines’ Security Outlook in 2010 NOEL M. MORADA Introduction..........................................................................................................37 Security Challenges............................................................................................37 Natural Disasters: Lessons from Worst Flooding in 2009..................................45 Human Security Challenges: Poverty Alleviation and Impact of Global Economic Crisis...........................47 Implications for the Defense Sector...................................................................51 Conclusion...........................................................................................................53
CHAPTER 4..............................................................................................................55 Singapore’s Security Outlook: The Immutability of History, Geography and Demography? LAM Peng Er Introduction.........................................................................................................55 Singapore’s Strategic Culture.............................................................................58 History.................................................................................................................58 Demography and Geography..............................................................................60 Recent trends: R&D, Defense Procurement and Training Abroad...................61 Conclusion...........................................................................................................64 CHAPTER 5..............................................................................................................67 Fiji Islands’ Security Challenges and Defense Policy Issues Sandra Tarte Introduction.........................................................................................................67 Current Security Challenges...............................................................................68 Relationship Between Security Challenges and Defense Posture......................77 Future Prospects and Regional Dimensions.......................................................82 CHAPTER 6..............................................................................................................85 Thailand’s Security Outlook: External Trends and Internal Crises Thitinan Pongsudhirak Introduction.........................................................................................................85 Security Concerns on Burma/Myanmar............................................................86 Thai–Cambodian Relations and Border Tensions.............................................88 Terrorism and the Southern Malay-Muslim Insurgency.....................................90 Other Threat Perceptions....................................................................................92 Implications for Thailand’s Defence Sector.......................................................92 CHAPTER 7..............................................................................................................95 Cambodia’s Security Challenges and Implications for Defence Policy Chap Sotharith Introduction.........................................................................................................95 Historical Background on Cambodian Armed Forces......................................96 Main Security Challenges...................................................................................98 Implications for Defence Policy........................................................................103 Future Directions..............................................................................................105
CHAPTER 8............................................................................................................107 Vietnam’s Security Challenges: Hanoi’s New Approach to National Security and Implications to Defense and Foreign Policies Tung Nguyen Vu Introduction.......................................................................................................107 Identifying Security Challenges and Policy Implications................................108 New Threat to National Security.......................................................................113 Diplomacy Is the First Line of Defense: The Continued Strategy...................117 By Way of Conclusion: Defense Policy in a Wider Context............................120 CHAPTER 9............................................................................................................123 Tatmadaw and Myanmar’s Security Challenges Tin Maung Maung Than Introduction.......................................................................................................123 Military’s National Security Perspective and Threat Perceptions...................124 MAF: Modern and Strong................................................................................128 Institutionalizing Tatmadaw’s Leading Role in Myanmar...............................136 Conclusion: Blind Spots?..................................................................................138 CHAPTER 10..........................................................................................................141 China’s Security Challenges: Priorities and Policy Implications Jian Yang Introduction.......................................................................................................141 Internal Security Challenges.............................................................................142 External Security Challenges............................................................................144 The Taiwan Issue...............................................................................................147 Prioritising China’s Security Challenges..........................................................148 Implications for China’s Military Modernisation.............................................151 Regional Implications.......................................................................................154 Conclusion.........................................................................................................157
CHAPTER 11..........................................................................................................161 Japan’s Security Outlook: Its Implications for the Defense Policy CHIJIWA Yasuaki Introduction.......................................................................................................161 Security Challenges Facing Japan....................................................................162 Japan’s Defense Policy, Force Structure and Defense Procurement..............164 Prospects for Japan’s Defense Policy and Regional Cooperation in Asia-Pacific.................................................................................................168 Conclusion.........................................................................................................174 CONTRIBUTORS.................................................................................................175
Preface This report is the proceedings of the inaugural “Workshop on Asia-Pacific Security” hosted by the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS). The workshop was held on January 21–22, 2009, with distinguished experts invited from the Asia-Pacific region. The workshop builds on the previously held annual “Exchange Program for Defense Studies with Southeast Asian Countries” which continued until 2008. This work is published as part of “International Collaboration Series” in which NIDS has been engaged. The theme of the workshop is “Security Outlook of the Asia Pacific Countries and Its Implications for the Defense Sector.” Each author presents his or her perspective on the assigned country’s security outlook, including important security challenges and their implications for the country’s defense policy, force structure and defense procurement, and the future prospects for regional security cooperation. In the Asia-Pacific region, there has been progress in building regional frameworks such as Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and East Asian Summit (EAS), yet unlike Europe, the region lacks an overarching security architecture. The traditional security issues remain in the region, but the so-called non-traditional security issues such as terrorism, natural disasters, and pandemic are also looming large on the region’s security policy agenda. We hope that the report will enhance our knowledge about the major security issues facing the Asia-Pacific region, and contribute greatly to the deepening of mutual understanding and cooperation between Japan and the Asia-Pacific countries. The authors are Dr. Rizal Sukma, Dr. Tang Siew Mun, Dr. Noel M. Morada, Dr. Lam Peng Er, Dr. Sandra Tarte, Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Dr. Chap Sotharith, Dr. Tung Nguyen Vu, Dr. Tin Maung Maung Than, Dr. Jian Yang and Dr. Yasuaki Chijiwa, The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessary reflect the views of NIDS or any institutions with which they are affiliated.
We would like to thank the authors for their valuable contributions and to those who participated in the planning and organizing the workshop.
October 2010 Eiichi Katahara Deputy Director, Research Department