Idea Transcript
Housing Needs Assessment Rental & For-Sale Housing Needs Assessment Rock Island, Illinois & Quad Cities
Prepared For
Ms. Susan Anderson Rock Island Housing Authority 227 21st Street Rock Island, Illinois 61201 Effective Date
April 30, 2013 (Revised: September 13, 2013) Job Reference Number
12-505 (Patrick Bowen)
155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: (614) 833-9300 Bowennational.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction II. Executive Summary III. Quad Cities & Rock Island Ward Area Overviews IV. Demographic Analysis V. Employment Analysis VI. Housing Supply Analysis VII. Other Housing Market Factors VIII. Housing Gap/Demand Analysis IX. Resident Housing Survey X. Stakeholder Interviews XI. Qualifications Addendum A – Stakeholder Interview Instrument Addendum B – Resident Housing Survey & Results Addendum C – Sources Addendum D – Glossary
I. INTRODUCTION A. PURPOSE The Rock Island Housing Authority retained Bowen National Research in December of 2012 for the purpose of conducting a Housing Needs Assessment of the City of Rock Island with a supplemental analysis of the Quad Cities area. With changing demographic and employment characteristics and trends expected over the years ahead, it is important for both public and private sectors to understand the current market conditions and projected changes that are expected to occur that will influence future housing needs. Toward that end, this report intends to:
Provide an overview of present-day Rock Island and the Quad Cities.
Present and evaluate past, current and projected detailed demographic characteristics of Rock Island and the Quad Cities.
Present and evaluate employment characteristics and trends of Rock Island and the Quad Cities.
Compile local stakeholder perceptions of housing market conditions and trends, opinions on future housing needs, and identify barriers to residential development in Rock Island.
Ascertain Rock Island residents’ opinions on current housing conditions, as well as their opinions on housing needs and preferences within Rock Island.
Determine current characteristics of all major housing components within Rock Island (for-sale/ownership and rental housing alternatives).
Calculate a housing gap by tenure and income segment within Rock Island.
Evaluate housing policies and other factors that affect housing market conditions and development.
By accomplishing the study’s objectives, area stakeholders, local public officials, area employers, and private housing developers can: (1) better understand Rock Island’s evolving housing market, (2) modify or expand Rock Island’s housing policies, and (3) enhance and/or expand Rock Island’s housing market to meet future housing needs.
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B. METHODOLOGIES The following methods were used by Bowen National Research to collect and analyze data for this study: Study Area Delineation The primary geographic scope of this study is the City of Rock Island, Illinois. Given the size and unique nature of certain parts of Rock Island, submarkets were established using Rock Island governmental Wards. Analysis of the Wards allows us to identify characteristics, trends and ultimately housing needs specific to a particular portion of Rock Island. Since Rock Island is part of the Quad Cities and is influenced by each of the Quad Cities to some degree, we have also presented an overview of data and corresponding analyses of each of the Quad Cities and the overall Quad Cities in aggregate. Demographic Information Demographic data for population, households, housing, crime, and employment was secured from ESRI, Incorporated, the 2000 and 2010 United States Census, Applied Geographic Solutions, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the American Community Survey. This data has been used in its primary form and by Bowen National Research for secondary calculations. All sources are referenced throughout the report and in Addendum C of this report. Employment Information Employment information was obtained and evaluated for various geographic areas that were part of this overall study. This information included data related to wages by occupation, employment by job sector, total employment, unemployment rates, identification of top employers, and identification of largescale job expansions or contractions. Most information was obtained through the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Bowen National Research also conducted numerous interviews with local stakeholders familiar with employment characteristics and trends of the Rock Island area. Housing Component Definitions This study is concerned with two major housing components: (1) forsale/ownership (both single-family and multifamily) and (2) rental (both multifamily apartments and smaller, non-conventional units). For-sale/ownership housing includes single-family homes and condominiums. Multifamily rentals include single-family homes and multifamily apartments (10+ units per building). Note that for the purposes of this analysis, senior-care facilities such as nursing homes and assisted living facilities were not evaluated.
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Housing Supply Documentation In the late Fall of 2012 and through early 2013, Bowen National Research conducted telephone, and in-person on-line research of the Rock Island and Quad Cities housing supply. Additionally, two market analysts from Bowen National Research traveled throughout Rock Island in early 2013 conducting research on the housing properties identified in this study, as well as obtaining other on-site information relative to this analysis. The following data was collected on each property: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
Property Information: Name, address, total units, and number of floors Owner/Developer and/or Property Manager: Name and telephone number Population Served (i.e. seniors vs. family, low-income vs. market-rate, etc) Available Amenities/Features: Both in-unit and within the overall project Years Built and Renovated (if applicable) Vacancy Rates Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type Square Feet and Number of Bathrooms by Bedroom Type Gross Rents or Price Points by Bedroom Type Property Type Quality Ratings * (see below) GPS Locations
* Quality ratings used in this study were established after a careful examination of the housing properties and their surrounding neighborhoods. Factors influencing the ratings include curb appeal, unit and property amenities, age, interior and exterior building conditions, parking arrangements, architectural design, landscaping and grounds, management presence, accessibility, visibility, signage, public infrastructure, condition of adjacent properties, neighborhood interviews, and area services. Information regarding for-sale single-family homes was collected by Bowen National Research in-office staff during the aforementioned research period. Home listings were gleaned from realtor.com and MLS listings.
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Surveys/Interviews To gain local perspective and insight into the housing needs of Rock Island, the following two surveys were conducted for this study:
Resident Survey: Between January and March of 2013, Bowen National Research staff conducted a resident survey of Rock Island residents. A total of 308 Rock Island residents agreed to complete an 18-question survey that elicited biographical information, current housing arrangements, and opinions on current housing challenges/issues and future housing needs. This survey was conducted both in-person and by telephone. Every attempt was made to obtain a survey sample that was representative of various geographic and socio-economic characteristics of Rock Island residents. The aggregate results were presented and evaluated in Section IX. The actual questions asked of Rock Island residents are provided in Addendum B of this report.
Stakeholder Interviews: In January and February of 2013, Bowen National Research staff conducted a 22-question survey/interview of area stakeholders. These stakeholders including individuals from a variety of trades including public officials, private residential developers, neighborhood and civic association leaders, education providers, non-profit representatives, public relations spokespersons, and other community leaders. Questions were structured to elicit opinions on a variety of matters including current housing conditions, housing challenges for area residents, barriers to housing development, future housing needs and recommendations to improve housing in Rock Island. These interviews afforded participants an opportunity to voice their opinions and provide anecdotal insights about the study’s subject matter. Overall, more than 20 individual surveys were completed and evaluated. Please note that individual names and organizations have not been disclosed in order to protect the confidentiality of participants and encourage their candor. The aggregate results from these surveys are presented and evaluated in this report in Section X, while the actual stakeholder survey questions are included in Addendum A.
Housing Demand Based on the demographic data for both 2012 and 2017, and taking into consideration the housing data from our field survey of area housing alternatives, we are able to project the potential number of new units the Rock Island market can support.
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Rental Housing – We included renter household growth, the number of units required for a balanced market, and the need for replacement housing as the demand components for new rental housing units. As part of this analysis, we accounted for vacancies reported among all rental alternatives. We concluded by providing the number of units that the market can support by three different income segments (less than 40% of AMHI, 40% to 60% of AMHI, and above 60% of AMHI).
For-Sale Housing – We considered potential demand from new owneroccupied household growth and need for replacement housing in our estimates for new for-sale housing. We deducted the estimated number of available for-sale housing to yield a net support base of potential for-sale housing. Demand estimates were provided for three income stratifications (less than $30,000, $30,000 to $60,000, and $60,000 and higher).
C. REPORT LIMITATIONS The intent of this report is to collect and analyze significant levels of housing data for the City of Rock Island, Illinois. Bowen National Research relied on a variety of data sources to generate this report (see Addendum C). These data sources are not always verifiable; however, Bowen National Research makes a concerted effort to assure accuracy. While this is not always possible, we believe that our efforts provide an acceptable standard margin of error. Bowen National Research is not responsible for errors or omissions in the data provided by other sources. We have no present or prospective interest in any of the properties included in this report, and we have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved. Our compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analyses, opinions, or use of this study. Any reproduction or duplication of this study without the expressed approval of the Rock Island Housing Authority, the City of Rock Island or Bowen National Research is strictly prohibited.
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II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this study is to evaluate various quantitative data and qualitative information as they relate to housing and to provide an overall housing needs assessment for the city of Rock Island, Illinois. Because the City of Rock Island is interdependent with the overall Quad Cities region, we have provided an analysis of Rock Island individually along with the Quad Cities overall. However, since the focus of this report is on Rock Island, we provide detailed analysis of the city and of the individual submarkets (political Wards) of Rock Island. The work elements incorporated into this comprehensive report include an overview of the history and general characteristics of Rock Island and the Quad Cities, analysis of more than 100 demographic metrics, evaluation of nearly 100 economic metrics, approximately two dozen community stakeholder interviews, over 300 individual resident surveys, a rental housing survey of more than 120 multifamily apartments with over 11,000 total units, historical for-sale housing data on more than 9,500 units and more than 800 currently available units, a rental and for-sale housing gap analysis for various income segments within Rock Island, and an overview of other housing factors (i.e. location of community services, crime statistics, housing programs and policies, mobility patterns, housing development costs, etc.) that influence the housing market. We conclude our report by providing recommendations. Since the focus of this analysis involves the housing needs of Rock Island, we not only provided aggregate data and analysis on the overall city of Rock Island, but we also provided detailed data and analysis on a city Ward level for such things as demographics and crime statistics. The Wards are politically-designated Wards and total seven overall. It is important to note that due to the large geographic size and unique socioeconomic differences between the northern and southern portion of Ward 2, we have divided this Ward into two individual wards with the northern portion designated at Ward 2A and the southern portion designated at Ward 2B. An enlarged map of the adjacent map is included on page III-17 of this report.
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Demographic Characteristics and Trends The Rock Island population declined by 722, or 1.8%, between 2000 and 2010, and by an additional 401 (1.0%) between 2010 and 2012. Of the other Quad Cities, only Moline experienced a decline, losing 376 (0.9%) of its population between 2000 and 2010. Other than Rock Island, only East Moline experienced a population decline between 2010 and 2012. The Iowa communities of Davenport and Bettendorf experienced positive growth since 2000. While most of the Quad Cities are projected to grow over the next five to fifteen years, Rock Island is projected to lose nearly 100 people a year. Compared with the other Quad Cities, Rock Island had the largest share (34.4%, tied with Davenport) of young persons (under the age of 25). Rock Island has the second largest share (8.3%) of seniors age 75 and older. Possibly more important, Rock Island has the lowest shares of persons between the ages of 35 and 44 (10.7%) and among persons between the ages of 45 and 54 (13.1%). Notably, Rock Island has the second lowest share of persons between the ages of 25 and 34. By 2017, Rock Island is projected to experience a decline in the share of people under the age of 55, while the share of older people (age 55+) is projected to increase from 28.9% to 31.0%.
2012 Population By Age 35.0% 30.0%
Share
25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%