How to Play The Almighty Breakout with uncanny accuracy accuracy SPAIN presentation (English version)
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Oliver Velez Titles 5 Int’l BestBest-Selling Books written by Oliver Velez, including Tools and Tactics of the Master Day Trader, Trader, one of the best selling trading books of allall-time.
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Let’s Look at one tactic that helps my traders generate wealth like this. We call it:
The Almighty Breakout Copyright © 2010
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Page 7
Two Main Breakout Facts
Fact 1:
Breakouts are amongst some of the most powerful, profitable plays in existence
Fact 2:
72% of all Breakouts Fail
Page 8
Breakout Question 1
Question 1:
So how can breakouts be so powerful and profitable if most don’t work?
Answer:
The 28% that do work do so in a major way. Big Profits!
Page 9
Breakout Question 2 Question 2:
So how can one distinguish between those breakouts that are likely to fail, versus those which will likely soar?
Answer:
By the end of this educational session, you’ll know which breakouts to buy and which to bypass.
Page 10
The Traditional Breakout Traders are waiting to Buy Here
iFund Traders Tip: You need a minimum of three relatively equal highs and lows to have a true consolidating base.
Page 11
The Traditional Breakout Our Traders Buy Here
Stop Here
Page 12
The Traditional Breakout Our Traders Buy Here
Stopped Out Here
What’s the culprit? What went wrong?
Page 13
The iFund Traders Breakout
Our Traders Buy Here
Our Traders Place a Stop Here
Page 14
The iFund Traders Breakout
Page 15
iFund Traders Breakout Play (BOP) PATTERN SETUP 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
The sideways base can occur in an established uptrend or after a downtrend The base should be narrow and thin, not wide and whippy The bars in the base should be small and narrow, no wide range The volume during the base should be light, not heavy The 8ma and/or the 20ma should ideally be rising during the base’s formation
BUY ACTION 1. 2. 3.
Buy the bar that breaks above the last 2/3s of the base Place a stop .01 below the breakout bar (the entry bar’s low). Project the length of the base upward for target, if there is no prior reference point.
IMPORTANT POINTS 1. 2. 3. 4.
The best breakouts occur at or near the point of contact with the rising 20ma/8ma A iFund Traders buy Set-up at the bottom of a base can be an early buy opportunity for the watchful trader, if the VBS is occurring at or the rising moving average. We play BOPs more on 2- and 5-minute charts when scalping A Pause (Base) VS a Top – When a Base Is a Top and not a Pause: a. Pauses (bases) are narrow; Tops are wide and whippy b. Pauses (bases) have small bars; Tops have big wide range bars c. Pauses (bases) have light volume; Tops have big volume d. Pauses “usually” don’t cross the 20ma by much; Tops cross below it.
Page 16
iFund Traders Breakout Play (BOP) iFund Traders Breakout Play – This buy tactic will be the iFund Traders second most frequently traded event. On many days, it will be the only pattern traded, as stocks tend to spend the majority of their intra-day time drifting sideways in bases. Therefore, this is a tactic that must be mastered.. b Tip Top a Buy Alert Buy Higher lows
iFund Traders Tip The second move, after a normal dip, will often be the biggest one.
Volume Decline
Pattern Set-up
Buy Action Trading Note: Bases that are tight and narrow with declining volume, rising lows and a rising 8ma and/or 20ma produce the highest odds of exploding to the upside, once they clear the over head resistance. Keep in mind that these “pauses” are not negative, despite the apparent loss of momentum. They simply serve as pit stops on the way to higher ground. In essence, they give the stock the ability to rest and rejuvenate before another big advance begins. The iFund Traders Breakout Play is a staple amongst our traders.
Page 17
Breakout Play (BOP) Don’t’ buy above this high
Buy Here
Last 2/3s
iFund Traders Main Breakout Rule “Buy the bar the clears the last 2/3s of the base.” Buying the break to a new high is often too late.
Chart Courtesy of iFund Traders Pro™
Page 18
5-min Breakout Play (BOP) What should you be getting ready to do right now?
20ma
200ma
A tight sideways pause (time consolidation) into a rising 20ma will tend to blast off right at or near the point of the contact with the r20ma. If the price were to go beyond the 20ma, and the 20ma were to go flat, the odds increase that the base is a stage 3, not a pause. Chart Courtesy of Realtick®
A Testimonial
Page 20
Breakout Play (BOP) Buy
Stop
Page 21
Daily Breakout Play
Buy Here
Chart Courtesy of Realtick®
Page 22
Breakout Play (BOP) Tip: The best breakouts (BOPs) occur at or near the point of contact with the rising 20ma. See circle
Buy
Stop
Chart Courtesy of iFund Traders Pro™
Page 23
Breakout Play (BOP) iFund Traders BOP Criteria
Page 24
Breakout @ 8ma
Buy Break Here
Charts Courtesy of iFund Traders Pro®
Page 25
Breakout Play (BOP)
Buy BOP Here
Buy BOP Here Buy BOP Here
Stop Here
Charts Courtesy of iFund Traders Pro®
A Testimonial
Page 27
Breakout Play (BOP)
Sell at the start of the next bar
Buy Here
Page 28
Breakout Play (BOP)
Buy Here
Buy Here
Stop Here
Charts Courtesy of iFund Traders Pro®
Page 29
Breakout Play (BOP) True Breakouts usually offer the iFund Trader two buy opportunities: 1- The Initial Break away move 2 – The first pullback (VBS)
Charts Courtesy of iFund Traders Pro®
Page 30
5-min Breakout Play (BOP)
200ma
Target Area
Buy Here Buy here
20ma
S
Tight sideways patterns above the 20ma during midday doldrums often lead to breakouts that run to overhead resistance points, such as the 200ma. Chart Courtesy of Realtick®
Page 31
Breakout Play (BOP) iFund Traders Tip:
Buy Breakout
Buy VBS
Charts Courtesy of iFund Traders Pro®
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Here Is A Simple Question
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A Simple Question If I gave you:
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start);
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start); 2) A list of only 100 key stocks to focus on;
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start); 2) A list of only 100 key stocks to focus on; 3) A commission rate of 6 cents per 100 shares;
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start); 2) A list of only 100 key stocks to focus on; 3) A commission rate of 6 cents per 100 shares; And told you to:
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start); 2) A list of only 100 key stocks to focus on; 3) A commission rate of 6 cents per 100 shares; And told you to: 1) Buy every BEAKOUT that occurs;
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start); 2) A list of only 100 key stocks to focus on; 3) A commission rate of 6 cents per 100 shares; And told you to: 1) Buy every Bull Elephant Bar that occurs; 2) Place a stop under the breakout bar’s low;
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start); 2) A list of only 100 key stocks to focus on; 3) A commission rate of 6 cents per 100 shares; And told you to: 1) Buy every Bull Elephant Bar that occurs; 2) Place a stop under the breakout bar’s low; 3) Keep 80% of the gains on all winning plays;
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start); 2) A list of only 100 key stocks to focus on; 3) A commission rate of 6 cents per 100 shares; And told you to: 1) 2) 3) 4)
Buy every BREAKOUT that occurs; Place a stop under the breakout bar’s low; Keep 80% of the gains; I will eat the losses (until you’re profitable);
A Simple Question If I gave you: 1) $75,000 to trade (to start); 2) A list of only 100 key stocks to focus on; 3) A commission rate of 6 cents per 100 shares; And told you to: 1) 2) 3) 4)
Buy every Bull Elephant Bar that occurs; Place a stop under the breakout bar’s low; Keep 80% of the gains; I will eat the losses (until you’re profitable)
Do you think you could do it?
Another Question
Then Why Don’t You?
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