HYBRID WARFARE IN UKRAINE LESSONS LEARNED [PDF]

HYBRID WARFARE IN UKRAINE. LESSONS LEARNED. Dr. Phillip A. Karber & Gen. (ret.) Vladimir Zamana. 12 April 2015 ...

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Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine Lessons Learned   Dr.  Phillip  A.  Karber  &  Gen.  (ret.)  Vladimir  Zamana   12  April  2015  

Nature  &  Content  of  New  Generation  of  War     9  Elements  of  Hybrid  Combat  

Col.  S.  Chikina  &  A.  Bodganov,  “The  Nature  and  Content  of  the  New  Genera=on  of  War,”  Voyenna  mysl’,  [Military  Thought  in  English   Transla=on],  No.4,  (Oct.  2013)  at  <  hOp://www.eastviewpress.com/Files/MT_FROM%20THE%20CURRENT%20ISSUE_No.4_2013.pdf   >.    

T-­‐90  Tank  Column  near  Luhansk  

Luhansk  

 Airport  Siege    (Sep  ’14)    photos  confirmed    Ba8le  of  Pocket  (Sep  ’14)    reports  -­‐  unconfirmed   Debal’tseve    Ba8le  of  Pocket  (Feb  ’15)    report  -­‐  unconfirmed   Donetsk    Airport  Siege  (jan  ‘15)    reports  confirmed      Airport  Siege  (Mar  ‘15)    reports  confirmed    Breakout  Ba8le  (Mar  ‘15)    reports  confirmed   Mariupol    Novoazvs’k  &  Sjedove                (Sep  ’14)    reports  confimed    Novoazvs’k  (Feb‘15)    report  unconfirmed    Novoazvs’k  (Mar  ‘15)    reports  confirmed   Ternove    Gunnery  Range  (Mar  ‘15)    report  unconfirmed    

T-­‐90  SighPngs  in  Ukraine  

September  ‘14   Jan/Feb  ‘15   March  ‘15   Unconfirmed   Confirmed  

“Russia  Targets  NATO  With  Military  Exercises”  

STRATFOR  MAP   March  2015  

Hybrid  Military  Options  produce  Diplomatic  Coercion     When  asked  recently  about  the  possibility   of   “SWIFT”   sancGons,   which   would   bar   Russia   from   the   internaGonal   payment   system,  Prime  Minister  Medvedev  warned   that   Moscow’s   response   would   be   “without  limits.”   DMITRY  MEDVEDEV   PRIME  MINISTER,  RUSSIAN  FEDERATION  

MIKHAIL  VANIN   RUSSIAN  AMBASSADOR  TO  DENMARK  

“I   don’t   think   the   Danes   fully   understand   the   consequences  of  what  will  happen  if  Denmark   joins  the  American-­‐led  missile  defence.    If  this   happens,   Danish   war   ships   will   become   targets   for   Russian   atomic   missiles.     …I   want   to   simply   remind   you   that   it   will   cost   you   both   money   and  security.”       Jyllands-­‐Posten,  March  2015  

Putin’s$$aim$to$“Protect”$Russians$could$Destabilize$EurAAsia$ for$Decades$$AA$if$he$is$not$stopped$in$Ukraine$…$Where?$

Which  Option  Makes  Europe  Safer?  

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