I-C TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN CLIMATE CHANGE MODELLING: A POLICY MAKING ASSESSMENT
Marie-Christine Tremblay Climate Change Economics Branch, ENVIRONMENT CANADA 10 Wellington Street, 25th floor, Gatineau, Québec K1A 0H3 (819) 934-2359, (819) 997-0709
[email protected] March 2004
Abstract This paper’s objective is to assess the contributions of modelling to technology-relevant climate change policy development. To address this, we distinguish between two modelling frameworks that are used to address energy policy issues and the economics of climate change: (1) the large scale economy/energy/environmental modelling to account for global and long-term phenomena and (2) the small scale modelling to account for individual country characteristics under a shorter and medium-term perspective. We review the way technological change has been represented in both of these modelling frameworks and examine their respective policy implications. This examination allows us to elucidate the differences in the policy insights generated by the two approaches. In recognising the complexities of incorporating the more advanced technology depictions in the smaller scale modelling, we propose some analytical options to enhance the latter’s capacity to evaluate technology-relevant climate change policies. These options concern most notably the choice of analytical structure (i.e., integrated vs. non-integrated) and policy instruments (environmental vs. non-environmental) adopted.