Idea Transcript
Market Outlook 31 กก 2555 2555
(30/7/55) SET SET50 SET100
1,193.32 ก +15.31 - &'( 824.48 - (+,-. (ก(/0 +12.12 - 3456!7 1,795.09 - 856!7 +25.30
18,820.2 +74.75 +5.44 +1,259.14 -1,339.33
PE (!)
15.39
PBV (!)
2.09
Dividend Yield (%)
3.57
• (+) "# $ %& DJIA -2.65 NASDAQ -12.25, S&P -0.67, FTSE +65.13 J 6 DAX +84.66 3 L&.(M43(N OL(ก 4P!QR ,6 ก. (43 L5(3(N& 43!R48 2 N(-RS OL-NL.N(43กก63P!7TMกQU. (4ก56,P FED 8N(- J 6 ก56,P ECB 8N(-R 2 &Q4. J3(N! GDP 4&!58X3& 2 U6.L3(N 4 0.4% กกNX3&ก YR4J&L4'Y4 !7TMกQU-R.L3(N456!7 J3 &PLS 3J/(Z(3(M &!5J 6Q3 -5( L 4 -R 6.5% J 6 5.96% 3 [L( . (4Uก-R (ก 4PL ECB U6-JS!,Q4Pก!/R -R 5\+.!7TMกQU8 OO /J63QL3 (1) ,N44S 56กก 2Q/55 J 6 (2) ก56,P!^LN(- '..[( N4. (Nymex) &4!L ก. -US$ 0.08 -R US$89.70/0! d6-R4[ (&4!L &.) -US$3.45 -R US$1,623.94/ounce 3NL.N(4กก3กก63P!7TMกQU!hNi- • (+) !hL!4Q 4PUก3456!7-L&PZQ +1,259 L&6&3(4J335j +62,317
)&$ )&$ : + 1,200 ? 3 L.P(RNO ก 348.[.(กX5-R ก56,P4!^L8- J 6/P4- N'Y4ก56,P4Z ก 4PO5 8N(-R 2 &.. NU6-3กก63P!7TMกQU8Li -R!5kJ4 &[.(ก63Pก!3QO34!7TMกQUO ก N'Y4Jก5\+..-8 PO5 .X YR43 L. (กi 85\UUP( (4 8,N44ก-N0 N'Y4L(,-!กh!,!L-Nก( OL!LN 8,N4- JNOL(,- (4Oก&5(YXL3 OL-JN3-R 1,200 J 6 1,208 UPL 3 [L( d6-R 5\UU(l856!7 -R343QL3 8N(- Z5. U64 lN6!7TMกQUX 56U[!L YR4S ก635\+..-8PO5 !QR&4S ก63 ก&4ก4X ..... 10 +0.1% 1.55% (!-ก(6L(& 4&PL 3.77% !R ก/.m54) J 6L(,-N!&-R4 (VIX) +1.33 -R 18.03 "#0 1 : TCAP 0 GRAND
% : #$ ) (30 ก 0($Fกก FLKED >=D0NLD(กIA!A($L Q= 31N55 FGLD(AB>=D0NFGก0 Q= 31 N 55 0%&>กAF0 FG0!'RG% 400,000 !"ก #$!%&'. >= 55 GL-L0E(LAB( (>$= 55 +107% yoy 'C 115,943 F('C$L B( 55,983 +137%yoy FG $กGG +85%yoy 0E(0%'C'G LกM 'CKก (1)F(IA!! L!(FL''R&BFD FG(2)&$%=ก!($ Eco-car FG $กGG (3) -Q& $Fก>(X ()*+ ก 0%ก>0AB0 6 AFก +6.4% ytd - AIRA TCAP G&ก0%N'5R 5 +11% 'C 5,556mn (EPS = 4.4) &'dK 1.2 =DKLF 4% &B0H TCAP 'C%D'dK&BLAB( 10'R L!(FL'R 2002-11 ( ,55 40 0 "P/E9X 5%6
!"ก #$ Car and Truck Sales 140,000
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12
((ก ก () (?@) AB'C>DE=DกEกD>(! D'Cก&!A0FGAH ABกIA!A>ก =J KED L0=IA!A>ก -=D MHM>(L( !( ก(>( 'ก K= 0&กกก=D>DE=(&! (L( A(D !( A(0 FG$A'Cก'Gก $EกLD( 0EM FGAB$AD>(>DE=(&! FG/A กก, ก( &Bก&B >D(& 0 N ก A=Dก(D MNก FG/A ก(ก(ABJ ก&Bก $O(=(0( 0N=ก'&BF'( P A>DE-LD(FD( (D ก0O!0ก(L& =(0A A0ABABJ FL(=
ก ก () 2/4 ! 2,8 $ % % & '% ก%( ) 10330 - 0-2684-8888 -0 0-2650-5477 www.aira.co.th
Market Outlook 31 กก 2555 2555
GRAND ก;ก< = ก 5%6ก">ก ?@ 2H/55
Q2 "&DE6 GRAND G&กED D= Q2/55 0E(กAB&กL0&FB D AB(ก &กE-D (ก=A(! 4 -(ก THE WESTIN Sukhumvit, SHERATON HUA HIN RESORT, FG HUA HIN BLUE LA GOON F?ก @(G (1) GRAND D'rL -(ก=K$ "0 L55 -&E4,500 D 'd% ( 100%FD (2) EG (กIA! กก-(F 2F( IO(B 'C-(FAB (= A(( &(=FG( GQEกPL (('GMF(G 1,500mn ? > (; M> ) 1 ?ก @2H/55 Turnaround + ) 0 (@,56 K'GกกstuL ='R 56 ก (1)กIA! -(F= E'GM 3,000mn (2) E-D (ก-(FFG-&& 0%>% I 13 FG I 27 &0B H GRAND GD(>%0G0 1,000mn D='R 2556 Q( 'G0 0P=ก'-(0D(&! FG '&BKED FGกB N%ก ($0%>% 13 FG 27 &ก(! ( ,55 %6!) 1.5 0 "P/B1.5X
Q2/55 "&DE6 Q3/55 E6
2 Q 12 e 3 Q 12 e 4 Q 12 e
1 Q 12
4 Q 11
3 Q 11
2 Q 11
1 Q 11
4 Q 10
3 Q 10
1 Q 10
฿1,400 ฿1,200 ฿1,000 ฿800 ฿600 ฿400 ฿200 ฿0 -฿200 -฿400
2 Q 10
GRAND Net Income
Turnaround @, 2556
((ก ก () (?@) AB'C>DE=DกEกD>(! D'Cก&!A0FGAH ABกIA!A>ก =J KED L0=IA!A>ก -=D MHM>(L( !( ก(>( 'ก K= 0&กกก=D>DE=(&! (L( A(D !( A(0 FG$A'Cก'Gก $EกLD( 0EM FGAB$AD>(>DE=(&! FG/A กก, ก( &Bก&B >D(& 0 N ก A=Dก(D MNก FG/A ก(ก(ABJ ก&Bก $O(=(0( 0N=ก'&BF'( P A>DE-LD(FD( (D ก0O!0ก(L& =(0A A0ABABJ FL(=
ก ก () 2/4 ! 2,8 $ % % & '% ก%( ) 10330 - 0-2684-8888 -0 0-2650-5477 www.aira.co.th
Market Outlook 31 กก 2555 2555
"#EF PTTGC ก $+Q3 %) H Iก-% J$ PTTGC ก(3-X3& 3/55 &N X-LP&3rก[( Nก[(-&!5L!-!L4 /5(& 3N(3'PLQ5pO3!-Uก กrZ,3Q!QR 1 &..- OกoJ6!กh4ก[X L.PL-Lก ((4 Q2/55 (4ก[X Consensus (www.settrade.com) : !5x.!y -R 68.83 CPALL ก1$LM Q3 % #$ %DE=DกEกD>(! D'Cก&!A0FGAH ABกIA!A>ก =J KED L0=IA!A>ก -=D MHM>(L( !( ก(>( 'ก K= 0&กกก=D>DE=(&! (L( A(D !( A(0 FG$A'Cก'Gก $EกLD( 0EM FGAB$AD>(>DE=(&! FG/A กก, ก( &Bก&B >D(& 0 N ก A=Dก(D MNก FG/A ก(ก(ABJ ก&Bก $O(=(0( 0N=ก'&BF'( P A>DE-LD(FD( (D ก0O!0ก(L& =(0A A0ABABJ FL(=
ก ก () 2/4 ! 2,8 $ % % & '% ก%( ) 10330 - 0-2684-8888 -0 0-2650-5477 www.aira.co.th
Market Outlook 31 กก 2555 2555
((ก ก () (?@) AB'C>DE=DกEกD>(! D'Cก&!A0FGAH ABกIA!A>ก =J KED L0=IA!A>ก -=D MHM>(L( !( ก(>( 'ก K= 0&กกก=D>DE=(&! (L( A(D !( A(0 FG$A'Cก'Gก $EกLD( 0EM FGAB$AD>(>DE=(&! FG/A กก, ก( &Bก&B >D(& 0 N ก A=Dก(D MNก FG/A ก(ก(ABJ ก&Bก $O(=(0( 0N=ก'&BF'( P A>DE-LD(FD( (D ก0O!0ก(L& =(0A A0ABABJ FL(=
ก ก () 2/4 ! 2,8 $ % % & '% ก%( ) 10330 - 0-2684-8888 -0 0-2650-5477 www.aira.co.th