Modernity, Cultural Reasoning, and the - WordPress.com

Loading...
Society for Comparative Studies in Society and History

0RGHUQLW\&XOWXUDO5HDVRQLQJDQGWKH,QVWLWXWLRQDOL]DWLRQRI6RFLDO,QHTXDOLW\5DFLDOL]LQJ 'HDWKLQD9HQH]XHODQ&KROHUD(SLGHPLF $XWKRU V &KDUOHV/%ULJJV 5HYLHZHGZRUN V  6RXUFH&RPSDUDWLYH6WXGLHVLQ6RFLHW\DQG+LVWRU\9RO1R 2FW SS 3XEOLVKHGE\Cambridge University Press 6WDEOH85/http://www.jstor.org/stable/2696666 . $FFHVVHG Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]

Cambridge University Press and Society for Comparative Studies in Society and History are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Comparative Studies in Society and History.

http://www.jstor.org

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





&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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

5($621,1*

$1' 7+( ,167,787,21$/,=$7,21

2) 5$&,$/ ,1(48$/,7<

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



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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

,1 '(/7$

$0$&852

9(1(=8(/$

FRDVWOLQH ZLWK DQHVWXDULDO IOXYLDO UHJLRQ 7KH2ULQRFR 'HOWDLVDVTNP DUHOLPLWHG RIDERXW DQGDSRSXODWLRQ  2&(, 0HGLFDOVHUYLFHV PRUWDO PDOQXWULWLRQ DQGLQIDQW LVGLIILFXOW DQGWKH UHJLRQ V DQGWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ WKH LQWKHFRXQWU\ $VWXG\ FRQGXFWHG GXULQJ WKHKLJKHVW UDWHV DUHDPRQJ LW\ FROOHDJXHV SODFHG DQGWKHLU :LOEHUW -RKDQQHV /D\ULVVH E\0LJXHO VV LQWKH QRUWK  DQGUHVHDUFK DWSHUFHQW :LOEHUW PRUWDOLW\ SUHSXEHVFHQW RIFKLOGUHQ GLHLQWKHLU WKDW LQWKH SHUFHQW GHOWD ODWHVVXJJHVWV ZHVWHUQ LQVRPHDUHDV WKDW LVVRFRPPRQ ILUVW \HDU 62&6$/>@ 7XEHUFXORVLV GLHIURP WKH GLVHDVH RIDGXOWV DUHV\PSWRPDWLF PDQ\ WKH PDMRULW\ RQOLYLQJ FRQGL WRH[HUW GHWULPHQWDO HIIHFWV FRQWLQXHG 7KHFKROHUD HSLGHPLF VXU WRDWULFNOH ,QVHFXULWLHV QHZFDVHVKDGVORZHG E\PLG WLRQV HYHQ DIWHU LQWR WHUURU ZHUHWUDQVIRUPHG E\WKHRXW KHDOWK FRQGLWLRQV HYHU\GD\ URXQGLQJ ZKHUH IOHG WRWKH PDLQODQG RIGHOWD UHVLGHQWV EHJDQ JURXSV DQGWKRXVDQGV EUHDN RQWKHVWUHHWV RIWKHFDSLWDO PDMRU &DUDFDVDQGRWKHU DVPHQGLFDQWV OLYLQJ QDWLRQDO RIWKH WKH WKHDWWHQWLRQV JRYHUQ H[RGXV GUHZ SUHVV FLWLHV WKLV :KHQ DQGVHQG LQRWKHUV UHDFWHG VWDWHV UHIXJHHV XSWKH PHQW DQGRIILFLDOV E\URXQGLQJ IUH WKLV WRWKHGHOWD UHSHDWHG F\FOHLVVWLOO EDFNLQPLOLWDU\ WUDQVSRUW LQJWKHP ZHUH ZKRORRNHGLQGLJHQRXV RISHUVRQV 7KHFRQVWLWXWLRQDO ULJKWV TXHQWO\



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



81,&()  WR1HZ
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



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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

*/2%$/

&$3,7$/

$1' *(12&,'(

2) 5(6,67$1&(

IRU WKHFKROHUD WKDW WRDFFRXQW RIQDUUDWLYHV HSLGHPLF VRXJKW 7KHFLUFXODWLRQ RUHYHQWRSHUVRQV FRQILQHG WRWKHUDQNV RILQVWLWXWLRQDO RIILFLDOV ZDVKDUGO\ QDUUDWLYHV PDGHWKHLU WKHPVHOYHV FULROORVWKHRIILFLDO ZD\LQWR ZKRFRQVLGHU WKHHSLGHPLF DVZHOO5HSRUWV LQWHUYLHZV SDQHO GHOWDFRPPXQLWLHV UHJDUGLQJ



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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email protected] %ULJJV RYHU WKHUH >SRLQWV FDPH WRDWWDFN >7KH [email protected] 2ULQRFR WKDW V FDPH WRDWWDFN WKURXJK WKH KHUH WKH\ DFDWDVWURSKH  7KH 2ULQRFR 5LYHU WUHH JDYH IUXLW RYHU WKHUH  7KLV YHU\ %ULJJV :D\ VDLG IURP ZD\ RYHU WKHUH ZKDW WKH\ LQWR WKH ZDWHUV RIWKH WKLV IUXLW IHOO NLQG RIIUXLW IUXLW %ULJJV IUXLW  IUXLW WKLV YHU\ LQP\ ,Q\RXU LW GUHDP $DDK FDPH RYHU %ULJJV [email protected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email protected]OHDGHUV



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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

$7 7+( 1$7,21$/

/(9(/

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



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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email protected] ZKLFK IHHOV WKH DVLQ9HQH]XHOD DVLQJOH VDPHLQ&RORPELD DQGFXOWXUDOO\ HQWLW\ ZDV DQGKDVQRFRQFHSW RISK\VLFDO ERUGHU =DPEUDQR  7KLVVWDWHPHQW DQHSRFKLQZKLFK QDWLRQ RIILFLDO PDGHE\DFDELQHWOHYHO GXULQJ LQGLJHQDV DQGKXPDQ IRUUHFRJQLWLRQ RIWKHLU ZLGHZHUHSUHVVLQJ SROLWLFDO WHUULWRULDO LQ=XOLDDQGWKH 7KHORJLFWKDW UDFLDOL]HV DIIHFWHG ULJKWV SRSXODWLRQV E\FKROHUD

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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

$1' 62&,$/

,1(48$/,7<

,1 ,17(51$7,21$/

(3,'(0,2/2*<

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

R

&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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email protected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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&

L

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

&+$26

$1' ,167,787,21$/

&5,6(6

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



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



PRVW SDWLHQWV ZHUH WUHDWHG %DVHGRQV\VWHPDWLF LQWKH LQWHUYLHZLQJ FRQGXFWHG GHOWD LQDQG 'U0DQWLQL%ULJJV LQIDFW DQG,HVWLPDWH WKDW VRPHILYH KXQGUHG SHRSOHGLHGLQWKH IOXYLDO DUHDLQ UHVHDUFKHUV :KLOH FXOWLYDWHG RQWKH DKLVWRULFDO SHUVSHFWLYHV HSLGHPLF PDQ\ RIWKHQDUUDWLYHV WKDWFLUFXODWHG LQGHOWDFRPPXQLWLHV DQGDPRQJDFWLYLVWV SODFHGWKHHSLGHPLF SUHFLVHO\ ZLWKLQ LWVKLVWRULFDO FRQWH[W *OREDOFRPPHUFH WKHHIIHFWV RIWKHHFRQRPLF FULVLV DQGFKDQJHV LQJRYHUQPHQW SROLFLHVLQ LQKHDOWK FOXGLQJ FXWEDFNV VHUYLFHVZHUHGLUHFWO\ FRQQHFWHG WRWKHDGYHQW RI WKHRXWEUHDN DQGWRLWVYLUXOHQFH LQWKHUHJLRQ LQPDQ\ ,QSRSXODU GLVFRXUVHV UHJLRQV RI9HQH]XHOD WDONLQJ DERXWWKHHSLGHPLF EHFDPHDVLWHLQZKLFK WKH RIQHROLEHUDO DGRSWLRQ SROLFLHV E\WKHJRYHUQPHQW RI3UHVLGHQW &DUORV $QGUHV 3HUH]DQGLVVXHVRIFRUUXSWLRQ DQGEXUHDXFUDWLF LQHIILFLHQF\ ZHUH PDSSHG DQG 6RPHDFFRXQWV WROGRQWKHVWUHHWV RI7XFXSLWD DVZHOODVRQWKRVH LQWHUSUHWHG RI&DUDFDVDQGRWKHU PDMRU FLWLHV VXJJHVWHG WKDW RIILFLDO SURFODPDWLRQV RID WRDVPRNHVFUHHQ FKROHUD HSLGHPLF DPRXQWHG LQYHQWHG WRWDNH SHRSOH VPLQGV RII WKH SROLWLFDO DQGHFRQRPLF WKHP WRKDOW WKHLU FULVLV DQGSURPSW SURWHVWV 7+( (/86,9(

$1' '$1*(5286

3/$&( 2) &+2/(5$

,1 02'(51,7<

ZULWHV H[WHUQDO PDUNV 6WLJPD *RIIPDQ LQYROYHV (UYLQJ  FHQWUDOO\ GHIHFWLYH RUEHKDYLRUDO SK\VLFDO OLQJXLVWLF IHDWXUHV UHJDUGHG DVYLVXDOVLJQV RIDSHUYDVLYH LQWHUQDO IDLOLQJ 6LQFHWKH QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ WKH KRUULEOH V\PS WRPV KDYHPDUNHG RIFKROHUD ERGLHVLQGHOLEO\ DVEHDUHUV RIDOOWKDW LVDQWLWKHW LFDOWRWKH PRGHUQ ZRUOGGLUW LJQRUDQFH SRYHUW\ EDFNZDUGQHVV DQGWKH SDVW LVWKH &KROHUD GLVHDVH,Q'HOWD$PDFXUR TXLQWHVVHQWLDO SUHPRGHUQ LQGLJHQDV ZHUH EUDQGHG DVWKUHDWV WRVRFLDODQGVDQLWDU\ RUGHU DVWLJPD WKDW DQWLELRWLFV RUHYHQIOLJKW WRWKH TXDUDQWLQH PDLQODQG FRXOGQRW HUDVH LVHYHQKDUGHU %XWFKROHUD WRFRQWDLQ WKDQ 7KHVDPH VWLJPD 9LEULR FKROHUDH ZKRODEHOHG RUWKH WKHLU LQGLYLGXDOV SHRSOH QHLJKERUV LQVWL VXSHUYLVHG E\WKHLU DVFKROHULF WXWLRQV WRFDWFK WKH LQ&DUD WHQG WKHPVHOYHV :KLOH RIILFLDOV VWLJPD FDVFRXOG SODFHFKROHUD RQWKH EDFNVRULQWKH FRXQWULHV JXWVRIQHLJKERULQJ RUWKRVH RISRRU DQGLQGLJHQD DVDZKROH LWVVWDWH FLWL]HQV 9HQH]XHOD LQFOXGLQJ ZDVWKUXVW LQWR WKHFKURQRWRSLF LQVWLWXWLRQV VSDFHRIFKROHUD E\LQWHUQDWLRQDO 1RRQHVHHPV WREHLPPXQH LQ,QGLD )URP FRORQLDO PHGLFLQH HSLGHPLRORJLVWV VHH$UQROG  DQG$IULFD VHH9DXJKDQ  WR$,'6LQWKHVLQ+DLWL DQGWKH 8QLWHG RILQIHFWLRXV 6WDWHV VHH)DUPHU (SVWHLQ  HSLGHPLFV IXHO QDUUDWLYHV WKDW LP GLVHDVHV DQGLQVWLWXWLRQDO FLUFXODWH SUDFWLFHV GHQLJUDWLQJ RIVRFLDOLQHTXDOLW\ DOODORQJWKHZD\:KLOHWKLV DJHV UH FUHDWLQJ V\VWHPV LQVWLWXWLRQV RII UH SURFHVV WRIHQG DWWDFNV PD\KHOSWKUHDWHQHG E\GLVSODFLQJ LWXOWLPDWHO\ QR IRU WKDW EHQHILWV VSRQVLELOLW\ HSLGHPLFV P\DQDO\VLV VXJJHVWV WRGLVPDQWOLQJ ZHZLOOKDYHWRGHYHORS RQH,IZHDUHWRFRQWULEXWH LW VWUDWHJLHV LVLQYHVWHG LQPRGHUQLW\ IRU ZLWK KRZOHJLWLPDF\ DQG JUDSSOLQJ LQVWLWXWLRQV FXOWXUDO UHDVRQLQJ 7KHDFFRXQWV FKROHUDLQ/DWLQ$PHULFD DQG'HOWD UHJDUGLQJ 9HQH]XHOD



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

$PDFXUR SURGXFHG E\MRXUQDOLVWV SXEOLFKHDOWK RIILFLDOV SK\VLFLDQV SROLWL FLDQV DQGRWKHUV ODUJHO\ FRQVWUXFWHG WKHHSLGHPLF DVDSUREOHP WKDW FRXOGEH FRQWDLQHG ZLWKLQ VLPSOH PRGHUQLVW QDUUDWLYHV +HUHWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ RIFKROHUD GHILQHV DGLFKRWRP\ EHWZHHQ PRGHUQLW\ DQGLWVRSSRVLWH ZKHWKHU WKHODWWHU LVODEHOHG SUHPRGHUQ WUDGLWLRQDO LQGLJHQD XQFLYLOL]HG 7KLUG :RUOG RUZKDW KDYH\RX&KROHUD LVFRQVWUXFWHG DVDGLVHDVHWKDW FOLQJV WRDQGNLOOVWKHSUH PRGHUQ RXWWKH VHHNLQJ SHRSOHZKRDUHPRVW LQWKHFRJQLWLYH ODFNLQJ VRFLDO DQGPDWHULDO EHQHILWV RIPRGHUQLW\ WKH IRONV ZKRSXUSRUWHGO\ ODFNWKH NQRZO HGJH ZLOO RUUHVRXUFHV WRKHOS WKHPVHOYHV 3HRSOHZKROLYHRQWKH PRGHUQ VLGH RIWKH GLYLGH FRQVLGHU WKHPVHOYHV WRSRVVHVVWKH HSLVWHPRORJLHV WHFKQRORJLHV DQGGHWHUPLQDWLRQ UHVRXUFHV WRKHOSFKROHUD QHHGHG YLFWLPVDWWKH VDPHWLPH WKDW WKH\ FULWLFL]H ULYDO PHPEHUV RIWKH PRGHUQ FDPSIRU ODFNLQJ DWOHDVW RQHRI WKHVH HOHPHQWV 3UHPRGHUQ VXEMHFWV DUHGHHPHG RIWDNLQJ LQFDSDEOH DGYDQWDJH RIPRGHUQ LQLWLDWLYHV RUHYHQDFWLYHO\ UHVLVWLQJ WKHP WRHPEUDFH E\IDLOLQJ PRGHUQLW\ ZKHQ WKHVWDNHV DUHVRKLJK WKH\ SXUSRUWHGO\ SURYH WKDW ZLOO WKH\ QHYHU EHFRPH SDUW RIWKH PRGHUQ DWOHDVWQRWDQ\WLPH ZRUOG VRRQ %XWWKHUHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ DQGFKROHUD WXUQV RXWWREHLQYHQW PRGHUQLW\ HGIUDJLOH DQGGDQJHURXV 'HOWD$PDFXUR RIILFLDOV VDZWKHPVHOYHV DVUHSUH WKHIRUFHV RIPRGHUQLW\ VHQWLQJ KHURLF ZDJLQJ VWUXJJOHV DJDLQVW SROLWLFLDQV PHUFKDQWV LQGLJHQDV DQGRWKHU FKDUDFWHUV ZKR WRYDU\LQJ GHJUHHV UHSUHVHQW HGDWUDGLWLRQDO EDFNZDUG ZRUOG %XWWKH PDLQ WRROVLQWKHLU VWUDWHJLHVTXDU DQWLQHV FRUGRQV DQGFKHPRSURSK\OD[LV VDQLWDLUHV HQWLUH WUHDWLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV ZLWK DQWLELRWLFV DUH GHSLFWHG E\RIILFLDOV DW3$+2DQG:+2DVWKH TXLQWHV VHQFHRISUHPRGHUQ LUUDWLRQDO UHVSRQVHV WRFKROHUD HSLGHPLFV 2UWDNH WKHH[ RIWKHIRUHPRVW DPSOH SXEOLF KHDOWK LQ'HOWD$PDFXUR RIILFLDO WKH GXULQJ HSL GHPLF $WWKHVDPHWLPH WKDW VKHEODPHG WKHHSLGHPLRORJ\ RIFKROHUD LQWKH GHOWDRQLQGLJHQDV  LQVSLULWV EHOLHIV DQGFRQVXOWDWLRQ ZLWK VKDPDQV VKHLV ZLGHO\ EHOLHYHG WREHDSUDFWLWLRQHU LQWKH VSLULW SRVVHVVLRQ FRXUW RI0DULD/L RQ]D:LOOWKH UHDOPRGHP VXEMHFW SOHDVHVWDQG D0LQXWHV XS")LQDOO\ UHSRUW DLUHGLQHFKRHG86$UP\ LQFKDUDFWHUL]LQJ SK\VLFLDQV :+2DVEHLQJ VWXFN LQVRPHVRUW RIWLPH IRU WRXVHFKROHUD LQ3HUX ZDUS UHIXVLQJ YDFFLQH QRLQGLYLGXDO &%61HZV  WKDW DQGQRLQVWLWXWLRQ LVLPPXQH VXJJHVWLQJ IURP EHLQJ FDVWRXWVLGH WKH RIWKH PDQWOH PRGHUQ RIFKROHUD RIWHQ (SLGHPLRORJLVWV DVVHUW WKDW WKHFKROHUD RIWKH HSLGHPLFV QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ JDYHULVHWRDVDQLWDU\ LQ(XURSH UHYROXWLRQ DQGWKH 8QLWHG WKDW 6WDWHV /DWLQ DQGSDUWV &ODLPLQJ RI$VLDIDLOHG WRMRLQWKLV $PHULFD $IULFD UHYROXWLRQ DEDVLVIRU SURYLGHV ERWK LQWKRVH H[SODLQLQJ ZK\ FKROHUD UH SHUVLVWV JLRQV DQGIRU RQJRYHUQPHQWV FDOOLQJ WRPDNH VDQLWDU\ UHIRUPV 2IILFLDOV LQ7X DQG%DUUDQFDV FXSLWD RIWHQ WKH EHQHILFLDO DSSODXGHG HIIHFWV RIWKH LQ HSLGHPLF ZLWK WKHP QHZYLVLELOLW\ DQGFORXW SURYLGLQJ LQWKHLU WREULQJ HIIRUWV PRGHUQ VDQLWDWLRQ DQGK\JLHQH WRWKHUHJLRQ DQGLQGLVFUHGLWLQJ LQGLJHQD ZLWFKHV WKH WRWKH 1HYHUWKHOHVV UHVSRQVHV RIWKH HSLGHPLF UHJDUGOHVV UHVRXUFHV DQGHQ WRWKH HUJ\ ZHUH WKH\ EURXJKW QHYHU WREHPRUH GHOWD LQWHQGHG WKDQ VKRUWWHUP QRVHULRXV HIIRUWV ZHUH XQGHUWDNHQ WRFKDQJH KHDOWK DQGVDQLWDU\ LQIUDVWUXFWXUHV

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

DSHULRG $VLDDQGWKH0LGGOH(DVW7KLVZDVRIFRXUVH (XURSH $PHULFDV UHVKDSHG WKHOLYHVRISHRSOHVRQDOORIWKHVHFRQWLQHQWV PRGHUQLW\ LQZKLFK DQG RQWKH SHULSKHU\ DQGSODQWDWLRQV UHVRXUFH H[WUDFWLRQ FRORQLDOLVP WKURXJK LQWKH RIZRUNHUV H[SORLWDWLRQ HFRQRPLF DQGWKH LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ XUEDQL]DWLRQ RI RIWKHH[SDQVLRQ IHDWXUH $FHQWUDO  WHUPV FRUH WRXVH:DOOHUVWHLQ V ZDVWKH FHQWXU\ WKH QLQHWHHQWK GXULQJ PRGHUQLW\ VRFLDO DQGSROLWLFDO HFRQRPLF ,QVKRUW D DQGWUDYHO RIPRUH RIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ H[WHQVLYH V\VWHPV HPHUJHQFH FKDUDF WKH EDVLVIRU OLWHUDWXUH FRXOGDOVRIRUP RIWKH KLVWRULFDO UHDGLQJ FULWLFDO DVSURG RIWKH ZRUOG EXW SUHPRGHUQ QRW DVIHDWXUHV FKROHUD SDQGHPLFV WHUL]LQJ HSL FKROHUD VDQLWDWLRQ SURPRWHG PRGHUQ 0RUHRYHU XFWVRIPRGHUQLW\ LWVHOI WKHVLWHV IHFHV IURP IRU H[WUDFWLQJ RIV\VWHPV GHYHORSPHQW GHPLFV WKURXJK WKH ZDVWHV WUDQVSRUWLQJ WKHP ZHUH SURGXFLQJ SRSXODWLRQV LQZKLFK JURZLQJ XUEDQ WKDW WKH  DUJXHV LQULYHUV DQGRFHDQV5RFNHIHOOHU DQGGHSRVLWLQJ WKHP WRWKH FDQEHWUDFHG FHQWXU\ LQWKH QLQHWHHQWK SDQGHPLFV RIFKROHUD HPHUJHQFH FRQQHFW VXEVHTXHQWO\ ZHUH FHVVSRROV WRLOHWV RYHUIORZLQJ RIIOXVK LQVWDOODWLRQ ,WZRXOG WKHUH WRZDWHUZD\V RIFLW\ DQGHYHQWXDOO\ VWUHHWV HGWRWKH RSHQ VHZHUV FKROHUD RQZKLFK UHYHUVH WKH IXQGDPHQWDO SUHPLVH IRUH EHWHPSWLQJ WRVLPSO\ %XW DQGVDQLWDWLRQ E\PRGHUQLW\ WKDW FKROHUD LVFDXVHG VWRULHV UHVW E\GHFODULQJ WKH PRGHUQ WRUHSRVLWLRQ IUXLWOHVVO\ SUREDEO\ VXFK DPRYH ZRXOG RQO\ DWWHPSW RILQHTXDOLW\ WRVXVWDLQ PRGHUQ FRQVWUXFWLRQV DQGWKXV GLFKRWRP\ SUHPRGHUQ DQGLQFOXVLYH WR WREHHJDOLWDULDQ 7KHVDQLWDU\ UHYROXWLRQ QDUUDWLYH SUHWHQGV LQZKLFK GLVHDVHV ZRUOG WKDW DOOSHRSOHFDQEHFRPH RIDPRGHUQ SDUW VXJJHVW 7KHHUDGLFDWLRQ RIVPDOOSR[ RIFRXUVH ZLOOEHSDUW RIWKH SDVW VXFK DVFKROHUD DVDGLVFRXUVH UDWKHU IXQFWLRQV %XWVDQLWDWLRQ PRGHO IRU VXFKQDUUDWLYHV LVWKH WKH SROLWLFDO VFLHQWLILF PRUDO DQGKLHUDUFKLFDOL]DWLRQ RIDVVHUWLQJ RIH[FOXVLRQ DQGFRQWLQHQWV QDWLRQV FRPPXQLWLHV RIWKH LQGLYLGXDOV DQGVRFLDOVXSHULRULW\ WRFKROHUD DQG WRHUDGLFDWH WKHFRQGLWLRQV KRVSLWDEOH ZKRKDYHWKHUHVRXUFHV RIPRG DQGVRIRUWK +HUH WDON PDODULD RWKHU GLDUUKHDO WXEHUFXORVLV GLVHDVHV IRU RIPRGHUQLW\ DQGK\JLHQH DV\QHFGRFKH GLVFRXUVHV HUQ VDQLWDWLRQ SURYLGHV EHWZHHQ K\ WKDW WKH RSSRVLWLRQ LQJHQHUDO DQG:KLWH  DUJXH 6WDOO\EUDVV L Q LQ W KH Q LQH UROH PRGHUQ VXEMHFWV D QG I LOWK DFUXFLDO GHILQLQJ SOD\HG JLHQH WKXV WRD DQGVDQLWDWLRQ OHQGWKHPVHOYHV RIFKROHUD WHHQWK FHQWXU\ 4XHVWLRQV $V RI H [FOXVLRQ ZH DURXQG DVUHYROYLQJ SUDFWLFHV YLHZRIPRGHUQLW\ SHUYDVLYH DQG RIFKROHUD GLVFRXUVHV VDQLWDWLRQ K\JLHQH HQWHU WKHWZHQW\ILUVW FHQWXU\ RIPRGHUQLW\ DVZHOODV WKHHJDOLWDULDQ SURPLVH KHOSWRVXVWDLQ SXEOLFKHDOWK EHFRPHLQFUHDVLQJO\ HYHQDVPDQ\ VNHSWL RIH[FOXVLRQ SRSXODWLRQV SUDFWLFHV RIGHYHORSPHQW DQGPRGHUQLW\ VHH)HUJXVRQ PRGHUQL]DWLRQ FDORIQDUUDWLYHV   &8/785$/

5($621,1*

$1' 7+5($7(1('

*/2%$/,=$7,21

,167,787,216

WKH YLU KHDOWK RIILFLDOV DFWLYLWLHV RISXEOLF SURPRWHG ,QVWUHVVLQJ KRZWKH GDLO\ WKH GLV VDPHWLPH WKDW WRFRQWURO RIFKROHUD QDUUDWLYHV DWWKH VRXJKW XOHQFH WKH\

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&

,

-(%8 '$0$1$ &2/(5$ 02+$,$ '2.2,&2'( ,6,.2 $+(5$-$

 $FKROHUDSUHYHQWLRQ 9HQH]XHODQ 1DWLRQDO *XDUG FRXUWHV\ E\WKH SDPSKOHW SURGXFHG *XDUGLD 1DFLRQDO 

),*85(

RIWKH DQGWKH FRQILGHQW PLOLWDU\ SK\VLFLDQ ILJXUH ZHOOJURRPHG EHVSHFWDFOHG QRUHVHPEODQFH WRDQ\ ZKREHDUV RIWKH LQGLJHQD LPDJH SURWRW\SLFDO UDFLDOL]HG WZRILJXUHV IURP DUHIDU SDUDO RIWKHGHOWD ,KDYHHYHU %XWWKH PHW  UHVLGHQWV WRQHHGQRVRFLDORUHQ QRZKHUH VHHPV WRDSSHDU IURP SK\VLFLDQ OHO:KLOH WKH ZLWK WKH WRORFDWHKLPDQGWRLPEXH KLVZRUGV DXWKRULW\ YLURQPHQWDO FRQWH[W :KLOHWKHSK\VLFLDQ GRPLQDWHV WKH LVIUDPHG ODQGVFDSH E\DUXUDO LQGLJHQD EDFNZLWKLQ WKH IUDPH IUDPH WKH LQWKH WKH LQGLJHQD VWDQGV H\H DQGORRNV YLHZHU WKH QDP PRVW VSHDNV DQGORRNVDWWKH SK\VLFLDQ 3HUKDSV JURXQG VLJQLILFDQWO\ WKH PDQLV DQGVWRPDFK SDLQ WKDW YRPLWLQJ LQJWKH GLVHDVHDQGWKHV\PSWRPV FODLPV LVUHQGHUHG $V,VXJJHVWHG DERYH WKH PXWH LQGLJHQD ZKLOH H[SHULHQFLQJ RISUDFWLFHV IRU DWWKHFHQWHU FUHDWLQJ WRWKHPDQWOH RIWKHPRGHUQ KDYHVWRRG :KHQUDFLDO VRFLDOLQHTXDOLW\ VLQFHWKHVHYHQWHHQWK DQGOHJLWLPDWLQJ FHQWXU\ RIH[FOXVLRQLQ DVFXOWXUDO FRQVWUXFWLRQV GLIIHUHQFH SUDFWLFHV PDVTXHUDGH UH DVOLEHUDO IRUPVFDQEHSUHVHQWHG VWUXFWXUDO YLROHQFHRIPDQ\ FOXGLQJ RIH[FOXGHG IURP WKHFXOWXUH SRSXOD WRSUREOHPV WKDW VSULQJ GLUHFWO\ VSRQVHV WLRQV D LQLQVWLWXWLRQV FDQKHOSXVDGGUHVV WKHUROHRIFXOWXUDO UHDVRQLQJ 7UDFLQJ RI RQ WKH H IIHFWV RI FUXFLDO S RRU S RSXODWLRQV J OREDOL]DWLRQ UHJDUGLQJ TXHVWLRQ LVSURGXFLQJ QHZPRGHVRI WKDW FRORU JOREDOL]DWLRQ  DUJXHV $SSDGXUDL FHQ WKDW GHWHUULWRULDOL]DWLRQ DQGGHQDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ GLVUXSW VXJJHVWLQJ LQFOXVLRQ



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

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

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+ ,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

WKLV UHFLSURFDO WKDW %DXPDQ DQG,KDYHDUJXHG  5LFKDUG GHJUDGDWLRQ DQGVRFLDOLQ PRGHUQLW\ UROHLQVKDSLQJ KDVSOD\HGDIXQGDPHQWDO SURFHVV LQSUHVV  FHQWXU\ WKHVHYHQWHHQWK VLQFH HTXDOLW\ WKHVH WKDW VXJJHVWV HSLGHPLF RIUHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RIWKHFKROHUD 0\DQDO\VLV RISHRSOHZKR RIWKHLPDJLQDWLRQV DUHLQDQ\FDVHDILJPHQW ORFDOZRUOGV %DXPDQ FODLPWREHJOREDO:KDW/HVOLH6NODLU >@ =\JPXQW GR RIJOREDOL]DWLRQ VWXGHQWV RWKHU  DQGPDQ\ 5REHUWVRQ  5RODQG DQGJOREDOL]DWLRQ ERWK ORFDOL]DWLRQ LVWKDW VXIILFLHQWO\ QRWVHHPWRDSSUHFLDWH DVVRFLDOSURFHVV LOOXVLRQV SRZHUIXO DUHDVPXFK IRUFHV FRQVWUXHG DVRSSRVLQJ E\UHSUH LQWKH LVVKDSHG GHOWD RIFKROHUD SDWLHQWV DVWKHORFDOZRUOG HV-XVW DQG QDUUDWLYHV E\%3WKH DQGWKHRLOZHOOVRSHUDWHG :DU RIWKH *XOI VHQWDWLRQV DQGSROLW ORFDOLQVWLWXWLRQDO E\WKH RI:+2RIILFLDOV DUHFRQVWUDLQHG SUDFWLFHV DQG RIORFDOFXOWXUDO JOREDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ 0RUHRYHU LQKDELW WKH\ LFDOZRUOGV RI LQWKHLU GLVFXVVLRQV SUHVHQW ZKDW HSLGHPLRORJLVWV LVSUHFLVHO\ VRFLDOZRUOGV DQGSR RQVRFLDOO\ SRVLWLRQHG GUDZLQJ LQIHFWLRXV GLVHDVHV FKROHUD DQGRWKHU LQWKLV SURMHFW HQJDJH $QGMRXUQDOLVWV RILQHTXDOLW\ LPDJHV LQWHUHVWHG OLWLFDOO\ RI5XWK WKH WLPH KDYHDUJXHG IURP DQWKURSRORJLVWV :KLOH WKHP DORQJVLGH ULJKW RQ RIORFDOZRUOGV FDQSODFHVFLHQWLILF GHVFULSWLRQV %HQHGLFW WKH\  WKDW DJUHDW GHDORIVXFFHVV PHW ZLWK KDYHQRW DQWKURSRORJLVWV VWDJHV JOREDOSXEOLF RUWKH ORFDO7KHVR FXOWXUH HLWKHU WRUHSUHVHQW ULJKWV IRU LQUHFHQW FRPSHWLWLRQV RUVRSKLVWL DXWKRULWDWLYH PRUH OLHLQSURGXFLQJ GRHVQRW OXWLRQ ,ZRXOGDUJXH EHFDXVH RUPRGHV RIFXOWXUDO DQDO\VLV RIFXOWXUH RUVFLHQWLILF GHILQLWLRQV FDWHG LQVWLWXWLRQDO SRZHUIXO DVPRUH WREHDSSURSULDWHG IRUPXODWLRQV DUHOLNHO\ WKHVH RIVRFLDOLQHTXDOLW\ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV QHHGVWREHGRQHLVWRFKDOOHQJH DV,VHHLWFDQDQGFOHDUO\ 2QHWKLQJ WKDW DQGVRFLDO GHPRJUDSK\ LQHSLGHPLRORJ\ RIVRFLDOLPDJHV WKHREMHFWLILFDWLRQ OLQNHG RIVRFLDOLQHTXDOLW\ RQNHHSLQJ LPDJHV :HPXVW LQVLVW LQJHQHUDO VFLHQFH LQZKLFK DUHSURGXFHG WKH\ DQGKLVWRULFDO FLUFXPVWDQFHV WRWKH VRFLDO SROLWLFDO DQGQRW WKDW ZLWK EHLQJ UHSUHVHQWHG DVFRQWLJXRXV WRNHHSWKH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ DV0LFKDHO 7DXVVLJ   WKH DQG GLVWDQW IURP UHSUHVHQWHG DERYH VXVSHQGHG WKRVH PDVWHU RSSRVLWLRQV WRH[SRVHDQGFKDOOHQJH FRQWLQXH SXWVLW:HPXVW JOREDODQGORFDODQGVFLHQFHDQGVXSHU DQGLWVRSSRVLWHV VXFKDVPRGHUQLW\ UDWLRQDO WRPRGHUQLW\ FODLPV DUHXVHGLQODXQFKLQJ DVWKH\ VWLWLRQ SDUWLFXODUO\ FLUFX DQGSRZHUZKLOHDWWKHVDPHWLPH DXWKRULW\ DQGWKXV XQLYHUVDOLW\ LW\ DQGORFDOLW\ LUUDWLRQDOLW\ EODPHDQGLPDJHVRISUHPRGHUQLW\ ODWLQJ VWLJPD RIWKH WKH ,QVXSSRUWLQJ SRRU FLUFXLWV VWUXJJOH DQGSROLWLFDO LQVWLWXWLRQDO WKURXJK DQGHFRQRPLF ZHOOEHLQJ HGXFDWLRQ WRVHFXUH DFFHVVWRKHDOWK OHJDOSURWHFWLRQ LQWR YLROHQFH EXWWRQKROH VWUXFWXUDO WKDW LQVWLWXWLRQDO UHVSRQVHV ZHFDQFKDOOHQJH RUGHPRJUDSKLF VXVWDLQLQJ WKHUHE\ VORWV QDUURZ ELRPHGLFDO OHJDOHFRQRPLF WKDW VRFLDOMXVWLFHFDQEH RIDOOWKH QRWLRQ ILFWLRQ WKHPRVWGHDGO\ SHUKDSV DUHGLVWULE ZHDOWK DQGKXPDQ WKH GLJQLW\ ZLWKRXW ZD\WKDW DFKLHYHG XSURRWLQJ DQGQDWLRQ VH[XDOLW\ RIUDFH LQDFFRUGDQFH ZLWK KLHUDUFKLHV FODVVJHQGHU XWHG LVWKLV 1RZKHUH LURQ\WKHXQGHPR  ZULWHV 'LSHVK&KDNUDEDUW\

5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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

LQ(LJKWHHQWK +HDOWK DQG3XEOLF $XVWLQ 6X]DQQH 'LVHDVH3RSXODWLRQ $OFKRQ 'LVHDVHLQ&RORQLDO 6SDQ ,Q6HFUHW RI*RG2OG:RUOG -XGJPHQWV &HQWXU\ 4XLWR RI 8QLYHUVLW\ /RYHOOHGV1RUPDQ 1REOH'DYLG&RRNDQG:*HRUJH LVK$PHULFD 2NODKRPD  3UHVV LQWKH 1LQHWLHV &'&%ULHIV  -RKQ &KROHUD $QGHUVRQ 'LPHQVLRQV RI*OREDOL]DWLRQ DW/DUJH&XOWXUDO $UMXQ0RGHUQLW\ $SSDGXUDL RI0LQQHVRWD 8QLYHUVLW\ 0LQQHDSROLV



&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

'LVHDVHLQ DQG(SLGHPLF WKH%RG\6WDWH0HGLFLQH 'DYLG&RORQL]LQJ $UQROG RI&DOLIRUQLD 8QLYHUVLW\ ,QGLD%HUNHOH\ 1LQHWHHQWK&HQWXU\ +XPDQL 1HZ@7KH3UREOHP RI7H[DV 8QLYHUVLW\ HGV$XVWLQ DQG0LFKDHO+ROTXLVW (PHUVRQ &DU\O /DWH(VVD\V  3UHVV &ODVV$PELJXRXV ",Q5DFH1DWLRQ D 1HR5DFLVP  ,V7KHUH (WLHQQH %DOLEDU  9HUVR HGV/RQGRQ :DOOHUVWHLQ DQG,PPDQXHO %DOLEDU (WLHQQH ,GHQWLWLHV -RKQ LQ4XHVWLRQ ,Q7KH ,GHQWLW\ 1RWHV  DQG ,GHQWLW\ :RUNLQJ &XOWXUH 5RXWOHGJH HG1HZ
5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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


&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

%DVLF%RRNV 1HZ@:H+DYH1HYHU /DWRXU 3UHVV 8QLYHUVLW\ 0DVV+DUYDUG EULGJH WRD6FLHQFHRI &ODXGH7KH5DZDQGWKH&RRNHG,QWURGXFWLRQ /YL6WUDXVV DQG5RZ +DUSHU 1HZ
5$&,$/,=,1*

'($7+

,1 $ 9(1(=8(/$1

&+2/(5$

(3,'(0,&



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


&+$5/(6

/ %5,**6

$ ,,, 'HF *$255HVROXWLRQ RQ*HQRFLGH &RQYHQWLRQ 1DWLRQV 8QLWHG ,,*HQHYD $UWLFOH 6WDQIRUG ,OOQHVV 3RZHU ,OOV&RORQLDO DQG$IULFDQ WKHLU 0HJDQ&XULQJ 9DXJKDQ 3UHVV 8QLYHUVLW\ 6WDQIRUG &DOLI 0HWHM /DGLVODY RI /DQJXDJH 0DU[LVP DQGWKH 3KLORVRSK\ 91>@ 9RORVLQRY 3UHVV 6HPLQDU 1HZ
V6H[XDO([SHULHQFH 3OHQXP HG1HZ
Loading...

Modernity, Cultural Reasoning, and the - WordPress.com

Society for Comparative Studies in Society and History 0RGHUQLW\&XOWXUDO5HDVRQLQJDQGWKH,QVWLWXWLRQDOL]DWLRQRI6RFLDO,QHTXDOLW\5DFLDOL]LQJ ...

10MB Sizes 0 Downloads 0 Views

Recommend Documents

Globalization, Cultural Reasoning, and the - CiteSeerX
reimagining and extending racial boundaries; in doing so, they attempted to transform a moral and political crisis into

between tradition and modernity of the cultural landscape research
A. Hettner (1927) also gave the first scientific definition of cultural landscape, .... started the inclination of geogr

Modernity and the Holocaust
the Holocaust for sociology as the theory of civilization, of modernity, of modern civilization. One way is to present t

Mountains, Mountaineering and Modernity: A Cultural History of
of Versailles did not permit Germany to have a standing army, the Alpenverein stepped into the gap and assumed the ....

architectural interpretations of modernity and cultural identity - METU
architectural spheres, conditioned by the dominant state ideology of modernization and nationalism. On this basis, what

Modernity
Communist Manifesto. Certainly manifestos existed prior to 1848, and Puchner discusses those of the English Revolution a

MODERNITY
tury rise of postmodernism has prompted many human geographers to provide more cri— ... space: subversive tendencies f

Modernity and Self-Identity
1991 Anthony Giddens. Originating publisher: Polity Press, Cambridge, in association with Blackwell Publishers, Oxford.

Abstract Reasoning Logical Reasoning Inductive Reasoning mp3
Download free mp3 music and songs, Play online. ... Abstract Reasoning Logical Reasoning Inductive Reasoning.mp3. CEB Ta

The Evolution of Rationality and Modernity Crisis
This study aims at providing a new explanation of modernity crisis partly caused by technology from the perspective of t