Ocean Energy in Indonesia [PDF]

Ocean Energy in Indonesia Prof. Mukhtasor, Ph.D. Member of National Energy Council of Indonesia, Chaiman of the Indonesian Ocean Energy Association, Professor in the Department of Ocean Engineering ITS Presented at OCEAN ENERGY WORKSHOP , ASELI, BPPT, JICA, OEAJ and Supported by ESDM and NEDO Jakarta, 22 Nopember 2012

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Con tents 1. Introduction

2. Ocean Energy Policies 3. Development Status 4. Strategic Notes

5. Closure 2

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Introduction (1) Welcome to the nation of waters!... • Indonesia is a country of “thousands of Islands”

Indonesia is also called as “Nusantara”. “Nusa” means “islands”, “antara” means “in between”  the nation of waters 3

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Islands = 17,480 Ocean = 5.8 million km2 Ocean EEZ = 2.7 million km2 Costline = 95,180 km Population (2010) = 236 million 8

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Introduction (2) • Ocean energy is renewable,

it is a new for Indonesia, and also for the world. • National Energy Council is advocating the development of ocean energy in Indonesia through the National Energy Policy  Two reasons on demand and potentials (markets and resources) 9

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NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL • LEADERSHIP a. Chair b. Vice Chair c. Daily Chair •

: the President of the Republic of Indonesia : the Vice President of the Republic of Indonesia : the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

MEMBERS GOVERNMENT

1.

Ministry of Finance;

STAKEHOLDERS 1. Mr. Agusman Effendi (Consument);

2. Ministry of Development Planning (BAPPENAS);

2. Dr. Tumiran (University);

3. Ministry of Transportation;

4. Mr. Eddie WidionoS, M.Sc. (Industry);

4. Ministry of Industry;

5. Dr. Herman Darnel Ibrahim, M.Sc. (Industry)

5. Ministry of Agriculture;

6. Prof. Widjajono Partowidagdo, Ph.D. (Technology);

6. Menistry of Research and Technology; 7. Ministry of Environment.

3. Prof. Rinaldy Dalimi, Ph.D. (University);

7. Prof. Mukhtasor, Ph.D. (Environment); 8. Prof. Dr. Herman Agustiawan (Consument). 10

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Population

2020

2025

2010

2015

238,4

250,4

261,0

270,1

65,7

68,5

70,1

70,9

0-14 years olds

64,1

63,6

62,1

60,2

Working

160,2

170,8

180,3

187,2

65+

14,1

16,0

18,5

22,7

Population Women (productive)

Source: Adapted from UN World Population Projection, 2002 Revision Sonny Harry B. Harmadi, Jakarta, 24 February 2010 11

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Projected Economics and Population Growth 9.0

Growth (%)

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0

4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

GDP TINGGI GDP RENDAH PENDUDUK

2010 5.8 5.8 0.8

2015 8.0 7.0 0.8

2020 8.0 7.0 1.1

2025 8.0 7.0 1.0

2030 7.5 6.5 0.8

2035 7.0 6.5 0.6

2040 7.0 6.0 0.4

2045 6.5 6.0 0.3

2050 6.0 5.5 0.2

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ASUMSI SKENARIO KEBUTUHAN ENERGI URAIAN

SATUAN

TAHUN 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

POPULASI Jumlah Penduduk Pertumbuhan Penduduk Rata-rata

Juta

238

251

262

271

280

299

307

%

1.5

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.3

*

359

527

774

1123

2229

4165

**

1446

2017

2827

3948

7452 13568

6.11

8.00

8.00

8.00

7.50

7.00

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI GDP (Berdasarkan Harga Konstan Tahun 2000)

Milliar USD

GDP per Kapita (Berdasarkan Harga Konstan Tahun 2000)

USD/kapita

Pertumbuhan GDP Rata-rata Harga Berlaku

%

*) 703 Miliar USD **) 2954 USD/kapita

253 1061

6.00

DATA BPS

• Populasi (data demografi UI) • Ekonomi (masukan dari Bappenas) • Data BPS : GDP tahun 2010 (berdasarkan harga konstan tahun 2000) sebesar 253 Miliar USD dan GDP berdasarkan harga berlaku sebesar 703 Miliar USD , (nilai tukar rata-rata pada tahun 2010: 1$ = Rp. 9.136,-) 13

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Projected Energy Demand 2010-2050 (Estimated with help of MARKAL) PROYEKSI

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1. KONSUMSI ENERGI FINAL

MTOE

97,05 137,35 190,76 260,49 343,90 438,79 555,97 662,42 757,17

2. KONSUMSI ENERGI PRIMER

MTOE

154,90 209,05 292,06 398,12 551,37 721,28 932,21 1137,76 1335,34

3. KONSUMSI LISTRIK

MTOE

13,67

21,04

32,16

GW

36,51

59,35

82,53 114,81 172,75 250,13 349,98 469,26 603,10

4. KAPASITAS PEMBANGKIT

47,45

67,36

93,80 128,49 173,35 222,86

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Proyeksi Kebutuhan Listrik TAHUN PROYEKSI URAIAN

SATUAN 2010

2015

2020

2025 2030 2040

2050

KONSUMSI LISTRIK Skenario Tinggi [BAU]

TWh

148

245

397

628

933

1680

2710

Skenario Rendah [Efisien]

TWh

148

208

341

511

733

1330

2100

Per Kapita Skenario Tinggi [BAU]

kWh

620

980

1521

2316

3332

5619

8827

Per Kapita Skenario Rendah [Efisien]

kWh

620

832

1308

1886

2618

4448

6840

%

7

7.1

10.4

8.4

7.5

6.1

4.7

1.06

0.89

1.30

1.05

1.00

0.9

0.7

Pertumbuhan Rata-rata [Efisien] ELASTISITAS KAPASITAS PEMBANGKIT Skenario Tinggi [BAU]

GW

35

58

92

145

203

340

550

Skenario Rendah [Efisien]

GW

35

49

79

115

159

270

430

Skenario Tinggi [BAU]

Hours

4722

4731

4791

4805

5065

5435

5420

Skenario Rendah [Efisien]

Hours

4722

4754

4834

4977

5157

5468

5470

UTILISASI RATA-RATA TAHUNAN

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Implementasi Pengembangan Energi Terbarukan NO

ENERGI TERBARUKAN

SUMBER DAYA (SD)

KAPASITAS TERPASANG (KT)

RASIO KT/SD (%)

1

2

3

4

5 = 4/3

1

Tenaga Air

75.670 MW

5.711 MW

7,54

2

Panas Bumi

29.038 MW

1.189 MW

4,00

3

Mini/Mikro Hydro

769,69 MW

228,75 MW

28,31

4

Biomass

49.810 MW

1.618,40 MW

3,25

5

Tenaga Surya

4,8 kWh/m2/day

13,5 MW

-

6

Tenaga Angin

3 – 6 m/s

1,87 MW

-

Sedang dibangun: 175 KW (Ristek)

-

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Energi Laut

Potensi Teoritis = 749.000 MW Potensi Teknis = 49.000 MW Potensi Praktis = 43.000 MW

Perkiraan, didasarkan dari Ditjen Energi Baru Terbarukan dan Konservasi Energi (2011). Potensi energi laut dari hasil ratifikasi Asosiasi Energi Laut Indonesia (2011)

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ENERGY POLICIES (1) • Law No. 30/2007 on Energy • Law No. 17/2007 on Long Term Development Planning • National Energy Policy (President Decree No. 5/2006) and Its Blueprint National Energy Management

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National Energy Policy (President Decree No. 05/2006): Energy Elastisity ( 50) 39

Proposed Implementation targets The act no 17/2007 on the long-term national development plan (RPJPN, appendix, chapter IV, section IV.1.6, number 2) mandates the development of ocean energy within the mid-term plan (2009-2014)

INOCEAN proposed to established pilot project of ocean energy power plant, connected to the grid, starting in 2014, at minimum of: – 1 MW tidal current energy – 1 MW wave energy

The medium and long term run would be OTEC pilot plant.

The most viable potential of 6000 MW ocean energy power plant is proposed to be realized in 2030.

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CLOSURE • The resources are great, their development need a greater efforts and supports, nationally and internationally. • As nation of waters, Indonesia is the best location as a window of technological implementation on ocean energy.

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THANK YOU TERIMA KASIH Email: [email protected]

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