Ontario Population Projections Update [PDF]

Ontario Population Projections Update, 2016–2041 Spring 2017, Based on the 2011 Census 2016 – 2041 Ontario and Its 49 Census Divisions General inquiries regarding the Ontario Population Projections Update, 2016–2041 should be directed to: Ministry of Finance Information Centre Toll-free English and French inquires: 1-800-337-7222 Teletypewriter (TTY): 1-800-263-7776 Ce rapport est disponible en français sous le titre Mise à jour des projections démographiques pour l’Ontario, 2016–2041 © Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2017 ISBN 978–1–4868–0212–8 (Print) ISBN 978–1–4868–0214–2 (PDF) ISBN 978–1–4868–0213–5 (HTML)

Table of Contents Map of Ontario Census Divisions I. Introduction II. Highlights III. Projections Results Reference, low and high-growth scenarios The components of Ontario population change Age structure Regional components of population change Regional population growth Regional age structure IV. Methodology and Assumptions Projections methodology Base population Fertility Mortality Immigration Emigration Non-permanent residents Interprovincial migration Intraprovincial migration Glossary Statistical Tables

Map of Ontario Census Divisions

I. Introduction This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and gender, from the base year of 2016 to 2041. These projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance and are an update to the projections released in June 2016. The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to provide a demographic outlook reflecting the most up-to-date trends and historical data. This update uses as a base the new 2016 population estimates from Statistics Canada (based on the 2011 Census) and includes minor changes to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The new projections include three scenarios for Ontario. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only. The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of longterm fertility and mortality patterns in each census division. Census division projections are summed to obtain the Ontario total. The report includes a set of detailed statistical tables on the new projections. Key demographic terms are defined in a glossary.

II. Highlights Highlights of the new 2016–2041 projections are for the reference scenario: Ontario’s population is projected to grow by 30.3 per cent, or more than 4.2 million, over the next 25 years, from an estimated 14.0 million on July 1, 2016 to more than 18.2 million by July 1, 2041. The annual rate of growth of Ontario’s population is projected to ease gradually from 1.8 per cent to 0.8 per cent over the projection period. Net migration is projected to account for 73 per cent of all population growth in the province over the 2016–2041 period, with natural increase accounting for the remaining 27 per cent. In the second half of the projections, the contribution of natural increase moderates as baby boomers increasingly reach senior years and the number of deaths increases more rapidly. The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to almost double from 2.3 million, or 16.4 per cent of population, in 2016 to 4.6 million, or 25.0 per cent, by 2041. The growth in the share and number of seniors accelerates over the 2016–2031 period as baby boomers turn age 65. After 2031, the growth in the number of seniors slows significantly. The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.2 million in 2016 to almost 2.7 million by 2041. The children’s share of population is projected to decrease gradually from 15.9 per cent in 2016 to 14.9 per cent by 2041. The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to increase from 9.5 million in 2016 to 10.9 million by 2041. This age group is projected to decline as a share of total population, declining from 67.8 per cent in 2016 to 60.1 per cent by 2041. As baby boomers continue to turn age 65, the growth in population aged 15–64 slows until 2027–28 and then accelerates over the remainder of the projection. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, with its population increasing by almost 2.9 million, or 42.3 per cent, to reach 9.6 million by 2041. The GTA’s share of provincial population is projected to rise from 48.3 per cent in 2016 to 52.7 per cent in 2041. All regions see a shift to an older age structure. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure as a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase.

III. Projection Results Reference, low and high-growth scenarios The Ministry of Finance projections provide three reasonable growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2041. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. Charts and tables in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwise stated. Under all three scenarios, Ontario’s population is projected to experience growth over the 2016–2041 period. In the reference scenario, population is projected to grow 30.3 per cent, or more than 4.2 million, over the next 25 years, from an estimated 14.0 million on July 1, 2016 to more than 18.2 million on July 1, 2041. In the low-growth scenario, population increases 16.2 per cent, or 2.3 million, to reach 16.3 million people by 2041. In the high-growth scenario, population grows 45.6 per cent, or 6.4 million, to 20.4 million people by the end of the projection period.

Accessible description of Chart 1 The annual rate of growth of Ontario’s population in the reference scenario is projected to ease gradually from 1.8 per cent to 0.8 per cent over the projection period. In the low-growth scenario, the annual rate of population growth is projected to decline from 1.3 per cent to 0.2 per cent over the projection period. In the high-growth scenario, the annual population growth rate is projected to decrease gradually from 2.2 per cent to 1.4 per cent between 2016 and 2041.

Accessible description of Chart 2

The components of Ontario population change In any given year, the contributions of natural increase and net migration to population growth vary. While natural increase trends evolve slowly, net migration can be more volatile, mostly due to swings in interprovincial migration and variations in international immigration. For example, over the past 10 years, the share of population growth coming from net migration has been as high as 76 per cent in 2015–16 and as low as 51 per cent in 2006–07. Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged about 82,000 per year in the past decade, with a low of 52,000 in 2006–07 and a high of 141,000 in 2015–16. The number of births and deaths has been rising slowly and at a similar pace. As a result, natural increase has been fairly stable at about 50,000 annually over the last decade. Net migration is projected to be relatively high at the beginning of the projections as net losses of population through interprovincial migration have now turned to gains and the number of non-permanent residents is currently increasing at a rapid pace. Ontario’s annual net migration gain is projected to decrease initially from 194,000 in 2016–17 to 107,000 in 2020–21 as it returns to more normal values, and to subsequently increase over the rest of the projection period to reach 130,000 by 2040–41. The share of population growth accounted for by net migration is projected to decline from 79 per cent in 2016–17, to 65 per cent in 2020–21, and then to gradually rise to reach almost 87 per cent by 2041 as a result of lower natural increase.

Accessible description of Chart 3 Future levels of natural increase will be affected by two main factors over the projection period. First is the passage of the baby boom echo generation (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, which results in an increase in the number of births through the late 2010s and early 2020s. Births are projected to increase from 149,000 in 2016–17 to over 169,000 by the mid-2020s and remain above that level until the end of the projection period. The second major factor influencing the future path of natural increase in Ontario is the continuing transition of large cohorts of baby boomers into the senior age group. By 2031, all baby boomers will be 65 or older and the number of deaths starts to increase more rapidly. Over the first decade of the projections, the pace of increase in the annual number of deaths in Ontario is projected to slow as the small cohorts born during the 1930s reach their life expectancy. From 2016 to 2025, the annual number of deaths is projected to rise from 96,000 to 110,000. Over the remaining years to 2041, the annual number of deaths increases faster, to reach 152,000. Initially driven by birth rising faster than deaths, natural increase is projected to rise from 53,000 in 2016–17 to peak at 59,000 in 2022–23, followed by a steady decline to 20,000 by 2040–41. The share of population growth accounted for by natural increase is projected to decline from 35 per cent in 2022–23 to 13 per cent by 2040–41.

Age structure By 2041, there will be more people in every age group in Ontario compared to 2016, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. Baby boomers will have swelled the ranks of seniors; children of the baby boom echo generation will be of school-age; and the baby boom echo cohorts, along with a new generation of immigrants, will have bolstered the population aged 15–64.

Accessible description of Chart 4 The median age of Ontario’s population is projected to rise from 41 years in 2016 to 44 years in 2041. The median age for women climbs from 42 to 46 years over the projection period while for men it is projected to increase from 40 to 43 years. The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to almost double from about 2.3 million, or 16.4 per cent of population in 2016, to over 4.6 million, or 25.0 per cent, by 2041. In 2015, for the first time, seniors accounted for a larger share of population than children aged 0–14. By the early 2030s, once all baby boomers have reached age 65, the pace of increase in the number and share of seniors is projected to slow significantly. The annual growth rate of the senior age group is projected to slow from an average of 3.6 per cent over 2016–31 to 1.2 per cent by the end of the projection period. However, this age group will still be growing much faster than the 0–14 and 15–64 age groups. The older age groups will experience the fastest growth among seniors. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to rise from 1.0 million in 2016 to 2.7 million by 2041. The 90+ group will almost quadruple in size, from 115,000 to 400,000. The proportion of women among the oldest seniors is projected to remain higher than that of men but declines slightly as male life expectancy is projected to increase relatively faster. In 2016, there were 40 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group. By 2041, it is projected that there will be 18 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group.

Accessible description of Chart 5 The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.2 million in 2016 to almost 2.7 million by 2041. The share of children in the population is projected to decrease from 15.9 per cent in 2016 to 14.9 per cent by 2041. By the late 2030s, the number of children is projected to grow at a much slower pace than other age groups, reflecting the smaller number of women in their 20s and 30s. The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to grow from 9.5 million in 2016 to 10.9 million by 2041, a slower pace of increase than the 0–14 and 65+ age groups. As a result, the 15–64 age group is projected to account for a decreasing share of total population, declining from 67.8 per cent in 2016 to 60.1 per cent by 2041. The growth rate of the population aged 15–64 is projected to continue to trend lower until the mid-2020s. From an annual rate of growth of 1.4 per cent at the beginning of the projection, this age group is projected to grow by less than 0.2 per cent by the mid 2020s. By the late 2020s, as the children of the baby boom echo begin to reach age 15, the pace of annual growth of the 15–64 age group is projected to improve to 0.9 per cent by 2040–41.

Accessible description of Chart 6 Within the 15–64 age group, the number of youth (those aged 15–24) is initially projected to decline slightly, from a high of 1,827,000 in 2016 to a low of 1,789,000 by 2022. The youth population is then projected to resume growing, reaching over 2.1 million by 2041. The youth share of total population is projected to decline from 13.1 per cent in 2016 to 11.3 per cent by 2033, followed by a small rise to 11.7 per cent by 2041. The number of people aged 25–44 is projected to increase during the projection period, from 3.7 million in 2016 to 4.4 million by 2041, while their share of population is projected to decline from 26.7 to 24.1 per cent. The number of people aged 45–64 is projected to continue to increase at the beginning of the projection period, from 3.9 million in 2016 to almost 4 million by 2021 before declining slightly during the 2020s. This age group resumes growth during the 2030s to reach almost 4.4 million by 2041. Its share of population is projected to decline gradually from 28.0 per cent in 2016 to 24.2 per cent by 2041.

Regional components of population change The main demographic determinants of regional population growth are the current age structure of the population, the pace of natural increase, and the migratory movements in and out of each of Ontario’s regions. Demographic trends vary significantly among the 49 census divisions that comprise the six geographical regions of Ontario. The current age structure of each region has a direct impact on projected regional births and deaths. A region with a higher share of its current population in older age groups will likely experience more deaths in the future than a region of comparable size with a younger population. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births than a region of comparable size with an older age structure. Also, since migration rates vary by age, the age structure of a region or census division will have an impact on the migration of its population. The general aging of the population will result in a rising number of census divisions where deaths will exceed births (negative natural increase) over the projection period. Deaths exceeded births in 21 of Ontario’s 49 census divisions over the past five years. This number is projected to rise gradually so that 37 census divisions are projected to experience negative natural increase by 2040–41. These 37 census divisions will represent 26 per cent of Ontario’s population in 2041. This declining trend in natural increase means that many census divisions in Ontario where natural increase previously was the main or even sole contributor to population growth have already started to see their population growth slow. This trend is projected to continue as the population ages further.

Accessible description of Chart 7 Migration is the most important factor contributing to population growth for Ontario as a whole and for most regions. Net migration gains, whether from international sources, other parts of Canada or other regions of Ontario, are projected to continue to be the major source of population growth for almost all census divisions. Large urban areas, especially the GTA, which receive most of the international migration to Ontario, are projected to grow strongly. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of growth. Some census divisions of Northern Ontario receive only a small share of international migration and have been experiencing net out-migration, mostly among young adults, which reduces both current and future population growth.

Regional population growth The GTA is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, accounting for over 67 per cent of Ontario’s net population growth to 2041. The GTA’s population is projected to increase from 6.7 million in 2016 to 9.6 million in 2041. The region’s share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 48.3 per cent in 2016 to 52.7 per cent in 2041, passing the 50 per cent mark in 2025.

Accessible description of Chart 8 Within the GTA, Toronto’s population is projected to rise from 2.88 million in 2016 to 3.89 million in 2041, an increase of 35.1 per cent, slightly faster than the provincial growth rate. Growth in the other census divisions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) is projected to be significantly faster than the Ontario average, with the addition of over 1.8 million people to the suburban GTA. Peel is projected to see its population increase by 698,000 over 2016–41, a 47.4 per cent rise. Halton is projected to be the fastest-growing census division in Ontario over the projection period, with growth of 57.7 per cent to 2041.

Accessible description of Chart 9 The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow by 764,000 or 25.5 per cent, from 2.99 million in 2016 to 3.76 million in 2041. The region’s share of provincial population is projected to decline slightly from 21.4 to 20.6 per cent. Two census divisions located north of the GTA are projected to continue to experience population growth above the provincial average: Simcoe at 36.8 per cent and Dufferin at 38.0 per cent. The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow 23.2 per cent over the projection period, from 1.82 million to 2.24 million. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest (35.7 per cent) from 973,000 in 2016 to 1.32 million in 2041. Most other Eastern Ontario census divisions are also projected to grow, but below the provincial average, with Frontenac and Prescott & Russell growing by 20.5 and 15.9 per cent respectively. The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.62 million in 2016 to 1.84 million in 2041, an increase of 13.2 per cent. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario vary, with Middlesex and Oxford growing fastest (26.1 and 14.8 per cent respectively). The populations of Lambton, Huron and Chatham-Kent are projected to continue declining slightly over the 2016–2041 period. The population of Northern Ontario is projected to be relatively stable over the projection horizon, with a slight decrease of 2.0 per cent, from 797,000 in 2016 to 782,000 by 2041. Within the North, the Northeast is projected to see a population decline of 19,000 or 3.3 per cent, from 559,000 to 540,000. The Northwest is projected to experience slight population growth of almost 3,000 people, or 1.1 per cent, from 239,000 to 241,000. In the past, Northern Ontario’s positive natural increase offset part of the losses it experienced through net migration. However, natural increase in the North as a whole is now negative. Table A Population Shares of Ontario Regions, 1991 to 2041 Share of Ontario

1991

2001

2011

2021

2031

2041

GTA

42.0

44.5

47.2

49.3

51.1

52.7

Central

22.2

22.1

21.6

21.2

20.9

20.6

East

13.9

13.5

13.2

12.9

12.6

12.3

Southwest

13.7

13.0

12.0

11.2

10.6

10.1

Northeast

5.8

4.8

4.3

3.7

3.3

3.0

Northwest

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.3

Population (%)

Sources: Statistics Canada, 1991–2011, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Regional age structure All regions are projected to see a continuing shift to an older age structure. The largest shifts in age structure are projected to take place in census divisions, many in northern and rural areas, where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure, a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase. The Northeast is projected to remain the region with the oldest age structure. In 2016, the share of seniors aged 65 and over in regional population ranged from a low of 14.4 per cent in the GTA to a high of 20.4 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it ranged from 12.6 per cent in Peel to 31.9 per cent in Haliburton. By 2041, the share of seniors in regions is projected to range from 22.2 per cent in the GTA to 31.3 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it is projected to range from 21.2 per cent in Kenora to 44.8 per cent in Haliburton.

Accessible description of Chart 10 Even as the share of seniors in census divisions located in and around the suburban GTA is projected to remain lower than the provincial average, the increase in the number of seniors in this area will be the most significant. The number of seniors is projected grow by about 145 per cent in the suburban GTA. Conversely, the number of seniors grows most slowly (less than 40 per cent) in Algoma, Sudbury and Timiskaming.

Accessible description of Chart 11 The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to decline in the North, but to increase in the rest of Ontario over the projection period. However, by 2041 the share of children in every region is projected to be slightly lower than it is today. In 2016, the highest share of children among regions was in the Northwest at 17.0 per cent; the Northeast had the lowest share at 14.6 per cent. By 2041, the Northeast is projected to remain the region with the lowest share of children at 13.4 per cent while the highest share is projected to be found in the Northwest at 15.6 per cent. The suburban GTA census divisions, along with Dufferin and Ottawa, are projected to record the highest growth in the number of children aged 0–14 over the 2016–2041 period, with Halton seeing the most growth at 46 per cent. Conversely, the majority of rural and northern census divisions are projected to have significantly fewer children by 2041, with the largest declines in the North. However, most census divisions are projected to see only a slight decrease in the share of children in their population. In 2016, the highest share of children was found in Kenora at 22.3 per cent and the lowest share in Haliburton at 9.7 per cent. By 2041, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share of children at 20.1 per cent while Haliburton is projected to continue to have the lowest at 9.1 per cent.

Accessible description of Chart 12 The share of population aged 15–64, which ranged from 65.0 per cent in the Northeast to 69.4 per cent in the GTA in 2016, is projected to decline over the 2016–2041 period in every region. The share of this age group is projected to range from 62.4 per cent of population in the GTA to 55.4 per cent in the Northeast by 2041. While the share of population aged 15–64 is projected to fall in every census division of the province, the number of people in this age group is projected to increase in 14 of the 49 census divisions, mainly in the GTA, Central Ontario and urban areas of the East and the Southwest. The highest share of people aged 15–64 in 2016 was in Toronto (70.6 per cent) while the lowest was in Haliburton (58.4 per cent). By 2041, the highest shares are projected to be found in GTA census divisions and in Hamilton, Waterloo and Ottawa, with Toronto the highest (64.9 per cent). Prince Edward, Haliburton, Northumberland, Kawartha Lakes and Parry Sound are projected have shares of people aged 15–64 below 50 per cent by the end of the projection period.

IV. Methodology and Assumptions Projections methodology The methodology used in Ministry of Finance long-term population projections is the cohort-component method, essentially a demographic accounting system. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2016) distributed by age and sex. A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births. Then, projections of deaths and the five migration components (immigration, net emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration) are also generated and added to the population cohorts to obtain the population of the subsequent year, by age and sex. This methodology is followed for each of the 49 census divisions. The Ontario-level population is obtained by summing the projected census division populations. It should be noted that the population projections are demographic, founded on assumptions about births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Assumptions are based on the analysis of the long-term and the most recent trends of these components, as well as expectations of future direction. For Ontario, the degree of uncertainty inherent in projections is represented by the range between the low- and high-growth scenarios, with the reference scenario representing the most likely outcome.

Base population This report includes demographic projections released by the Ministry of Finance that use population estimates based on the 2011 Census adjusted for net undercoverage. Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canada’s preliminary July 1, 2016 postcensal population estimates as a base. As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths and several of the migration streams.

Fertility The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. The projection model relies on four parameters1 to generate the annual number of births. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate (TFR), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at maternity, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. All parameters used are calibrated to generate age-specific fertility rates that closely follow recent trends. Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. A general and common trend is that a growing proportion of women are postponing births to their 30s and early 40s. The decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Over the past 20 years, teenage girls and women in their early 20s have experienced the sharpest declines in fertility rates. Women in their late 20s had rapidly declining fertility rates over the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a period of slower decline up to 2008. Fertility rates of women in their 30s and older, which were rising moderately over the 1990s and more rapidly over most of the 2000s, have shown a slower pace of increase in the most recent years. These are the same cohorts of women who postponed births during their 20s and are now having children in their 30s and early 40s. Following about half a century of almost continuous decline, the total fertility rate in Ontario reached a low in 2002, at 1.48 children per woman. From the 2002 low, annual TFR values increased gradually, rising to 1.60 in 2008. Most recently, TFR has declined, reaching 1.55 in 2011 (latest available). This is less than half of the total fertility rate recorded during the 1960 peak of the Baby Boom when Ontario’s total fertility rate reached 3.8 children per woman with a record 159,000 births registered that year. By 1972, fertility fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Fertility rates are unlikely to return to the highs observed in the 1950s and early 1960s. Rather, it is believed that relatively small fluctuations around values below the replacement level are more likely. In the reference scenario, the TFR is assumed to increase slightly from 1.55 to 1.60 children per woman by 2030 as younger women’s fertility rates stabilize while those of older women continue to gradually increase. In the low-growth scenario, fertility is assumed to decline gradually until the TFR reaches 1.30 children per woman at the end of the projection period. In the high-growth scenario, the TFR increases gradually to 1.90 children per woman by the end of the period. 1Based on the Pearsonian approach. See Glossary.

Fertility assumptions at the census division level The most recent data at the census division level (2011) shows that TFRs range from a high of 2.34 in Manitoulin to a low of 1.39 in Toronto. Trends in the evolution of the TFR in each census division over the past fifteen years show no convergence of TFRs by census division. For this reason, the projected parameters for fertility at the census division level are modelled to maintain the regional differences. The census division-to-province ratio for mean age at fertility in the most recent period is assumed to remain constant. The variance and skewness of fertility distributions at the census division level evolve over the projection period following the same absolute changes of these parameters at the Ontario level.

Accessible description of Chart 13

Mortality The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts in corresponding ages. Assumptions of future age-specific death rates are derived2 from trends observed over the 1971–2011 period related to the pace of improvement in overall life expectancy and the age patterns in mortality. The province of Ontario has one of the highest levels of life expectancy in Canada and among the countries of the developed world. The current (2011) life expectancy at birth is 84.0 years for Ontario females and 79.8 years for Ontario males. Since 1994, average gains in life expectancy have been in the order of 0.18 years per annum for females and 0.26 years per annum for males. Up to the mid-1990s, annual gains in life expectancy were getting somewhat smaller and it was expected that future improvements would continue at this slowing pace. However, over the past decade, annual gains in life expectancy have picked up and are rising in a more linear trajectory. Future gains in life expectancy concentrated at older ages and are smaller for infants. In the reference scenario, life expectancy in Ontario is projected to continue increasing linearly over the first decade of the projection, followed by a gradual slowing in the rate of increase. By 2041, life expectancy is projected to reach 86.6 years for males and 88.7 years for females. This means total life expectancy gains of 6.8 years for males and 4.7 years for females between 2011 and 2041. For low-and high-growth scenarios, assumptions of life expectancy at birth at the end of the projection period are first developed. For intervening years, life expectancy is assumed to increase linearly. The derived set of assumptions for the three scenarios for Ontario all reflect a continuation of the gains recorded in the average duration of life. In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases at a slower pace, to 85.0 and 87.4 years for males and females respectively. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 88.0 and 89.8 years for males and females respectively. 2 Following the Lee-Carter model. See Glossary.

Accessible description of Chart 14 Under the assumptions on mortality for each of the three scenarios, male life expectancy is expected to progress at a faster pace than female life expectancy. This is consistent with recent trends where males have recorded larger gains than females. Thus, the overall gap between males and females has gradually decreased, and is projected to continue to do so. Table B Life Expectancy in Ontario, 1981 to 2041

1981

1991

2001

2011

2021

2031

2041

Male - At birth

72.5

75.0

77.4

79.8

82.4

84.6

86.6

Male - At age 65

14.5

15.8

17.2

18.9

20.8

22.4

23.9

Female - At birth

79.3

80.8

82.1

84.0

85.8

87.3

88.7

Female - At age 65

19.0

19.7

20.4

21.9

23.2

24.4

25.5

Sources: Statistics Canada, 1981–2001, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Mortality assumptions at the census division level At the census division level, the mortality assumptions were developed using a ratio methodology. The Ontario-level mortality structure was applied to each census division’s age structure over the most recent six years of comparable data and the expected number of deaths was computed. This was then compared to the actual annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual-to-expected number of deaths. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial age-specific death rates to create death rates for each census division. These were then applied to the corresponding census division population to derive the number of deaths for each census division. An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time. For this reason, the recent three-year average ratio for each census division was held constant over the projection period.

Components of net migration The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration.

Immigration Immigration levels in Canada are determined by federal government policy. The federal Minister of Citizenship and Immigration sets the national target and target-range for the level of immigration to be achieved over the following year. For the calendar year 2017, the target is set at 300,000, with a target-range of 280,000 to 320,000 immigrants. This is similar to the 2016 target, but a significant increase from 2015, when the range was 260,000 to 285,000. Over the past 20 years, the target range has been increased gradually by successive federal governments. These increases to the immigration target helped maintain a relatively stable immigration rate to Canada of about 0.75 per cent of population each year. Since 2007, federal immigration policy has changed, with a goal of spreading immigrants more evenly across the country primarily through the expansion of the provincial nominee program. As a result, Ontario’s share of total Canadian immigration has fallen from 48.5 per cent in 2006–07 to an average of 37.5 over the last three years (2013–16). In the reference scenario, the assumed long-term immigration rate is set at 0.8 per cent for the entire projection period.

Accessible description of Chart 15 The number of immigrants increases over time as population grows. In the reference scenario, the annual immigration level is projected to increase from 112,000 in 2016–17 to 145,000 by 2040–41, in tandem with overall population growth. The long-term immigration rate is set at 0.6 per cent in the low-growth scenario, resulting in relatively stable immigration levels, hovering around the 100,000 mark. In the high-growth scenario, the long-term rate of immigration is set at 1.0 per cent, resulting in immigration levels rising strongly, from 126,000 in 2016–17 to 201,000 by 2040–41.

Immigration assumptions at the census division level Projected immigration shares for each census division are based on the trends observed in the distribution of immigrants by census division over the recent past. These shares evolve throughout the projection period following established trends. The average age-sex distribution pattern for immigrants observed over the past five years is assumed to remain constant over the entire projection period. Over 85 per cent of immigrants coming to Ontario in 2015-16 were aged 0–44.

Accessible description of Chart 16

Emigration Total emigration is defined as the gross flow of international emigration, minus returning emigrants, plus the net variation in the number of Ontarians temporarily abroad. The level of total emigration from Ontario averaged 17,900 over the past three years. The number of emigrants is difficult to estimate with a high degree of accuracy because of incomplete information. Statistics Canada publishes annual estimates of these flows based on a variety of sources, such as administrative data files and immigration statistics published by agencies of foreign countries. In the reference scenario, the average emigration rates by age and sex for each census division observed over the past five years are used to model the projected number of people emigrating annually from each census division. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions. For Ontario as a whole, this results in the number of emigrants increasing gradually over the projection period to reach 21,700 by 2040–41. In the low-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are increased by 30 per cent, making them 130 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in emigration levels reaching 25,200 by 2040–41. In the high-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are reduced by 30 per cent, making them equivalent to 70 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in the number of emigrants reaching 16,700 by 2040–41.

Accessible description of Chart 17

Emigration assumptions at the census division level The projected number of people, by age and gender, emigrating from each census division for each year of the projections is modelled using the average emigration rates by age and gender for each census division observed over the past five years.

Non-permanent residents Statistics Canada estimates that there were about 345,000 non-permanent residents (NPRs) living in Ontario in 2016 (e.g., foreign students, temporary workers, refugee claimants). In 2015–16, the number of NPRs rose by 34,000 in Ontario, the largest increase in 27 years. These foreign residents are included in the base population as they are counted in the Census. The year-to-year change in their total number must be accounted for as a component of population growth. Determining assumptions for this component is complicated by the significant annual fluctuations and the transient nature of this group. Over the past 30 years, Ontario has gained on average 8,400 non-permanent residents annually. The reference scenario reflects long-terms trends in the annual change in the number of NPRs by setting the long-term yearly gain to 7,500. In the low- and high-growth scenarios, the long-term annual change in the stock of NPRs is set at 2,500 and 12,500 respectively. The long-term assumptions for each scenario are reached after a transition period of five years, moderating from the relatively high net gains observed recently. The assumed increase in the number of non-permanent resident in 2016–17 is set at 75,000 in the reference scenario, 56,250 in the low-growth scenario, and 93,750 in the high-growth scenario.

Accessible description of Chart 18

Non-permanent resident assumptions at the census division level Projected shares of non-permanent residents for each census division are based on the share held by each census division in 2016. The age-sex distribution of non-permanent residents is based on the average of the last five years. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period.

Interprovincial migration Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from some other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. This pattern is usually closely tied to economic cycles. Over the past 30 years, net interprovincial migration has not contributed to Ontario’s population growth, with net losses averaging about 1,100 people per year. Between 2003 and 2015, net interprovincial migration to Ontario was negative, largely due to net outflows to Alberta. However, the most recent data shows a reversal of the out-migration trends to Western Canada to Ontario’s advantage. In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration for Ontario reflects recent trends in the short term. It is set at 25,000 for 2016–17, 18,800 for 2017–18, and gradually returning to long-term historical values by 2020–21 with a net of zero and then remaining at that level for the rest of the projection period.

Accessible description of Chart 19 In the low-growth scenario, net interprovincial migration for Ontario is set at 12,500 for 2016–17, 9,400 for 2017–18, and gradually falling to a net outflow of 5,000 from 2020–21 onwards. In the high-growth scenario, a net annual inflow of 37,500 people is assumed for 2016–17, 28,200 for 2017–18, followed by a gradual decrease to a net inflow of 5,000 annually starting in 2020–21. The annual in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 62,500, 65,000 and 67,500 respectively. The corresponding annual out-flows are 67,500, 65,000 and 62,500.

Interprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level Each census division’s share of Ontario inflow and outflow of interprovincial migrants over the last five years is applied to projected flows for the province and held constant throughout the projection period.

Intraprovincial migration At the census division level, intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population from one census division to another within the province, is a significant component of population growth. This component affects population growth only at the census division level. The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 430,000 range over the past 20 years. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants increases gradually from 378,000 in 2016–17 to 424,000 in 2040–41. This increase over time reflects population growth and age structure changes at the census division level. In fact, even as the number of intraprovincial migrants is projected to increase, the resulting rate of intraprovincial migration in Ontario declines slightly over the projection period, from 2.7 per cent in 2016–17 to 2.3 per cent by 2040–41.

Intraprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level The projected number of people, by age, leaving each census division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modelled using the origindestination migration rates by age for each census division over the past five years. Because migration rates by age group are different for each census division and because different age groups have different origin-destination behaviours, the methodology provides a powerful tool to project movers based on observed age and origin-destination migration patterns. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions. The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends.

Glossary Baby boom generation People born during the period following World War II, 1946 to 1965, marked by a significant increase in fertility rates and in the number of births. Baby boom echo generation People born during the period 1972 to 1992. Children of baby boomers. Cohort Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given period, which can be a year. For example, the birth cohort of 1966 consists of the number of persons who were born in 1966. GTA The Greater Toronto Area, comprised of the census divisions of Toronto, Durham, Halton, Peel and York. International migration Movement of population between Ontario and a foreign country. International migration includes immigrants, emigrants and non-permanent residents. Net international migration is the difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving the province from foreign countries. Interprovincial migration Movement of population between Ontario and the rest of Canada. Net interprovincial migration is the difference between the number of people entering Ontario from the rest of Canada and the number of people leaving Ontario for elsewhere in Canada. Intraprovincial migration Movement of population between the 49 census divisions within Ontario. Net intraprovincial migration for a given census division is the difference between the number of people moving from the rest of Ontario to this census division and the number of people leaving for elsewhere in the province. Lee-Carter method A method of mortality projection proposed by Lee and Carter used to generate annual age-sex specific mortality rates. See Lee, Ronald D., and Carter, Lawrence, 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87, no 419(September):659-71. Life expectancy A statistical measure derived from the average number of years of life remaining for a person at a specific age if that person would experience during his/her life the age-specific mortality rates observed in a given year. Median age The median age is the age at which exactly one half of the population is older and the other half is younger. This measure is often used to compare age structures between jurisdictions. Natural increase The number of births minus the number of deaths. Net migration Difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving a given area. This includes all the migration components included in net international migration, net interprovincial migration and net intraprovincial migration (for sub-provincial jurisdictions). Non-permanent residents Foreign citizens living in Ontario (e.g., foreign students, temporary workers or refugee claimants). Pearsonian curve Parametric model used to distribute estimated fertility rates by age of mothers. The Pearsonian curve has four parameters. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate, reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at fertility, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. Population aging In demographic terms, population aging refers to an increasing share of seniors (ages 65+) in the population. Population estimates Measures historical resident population using data from the most recent Census, in addition to administrative data on the components of demographic change (births, deaths and net migration) since the Census. Total fertility rate The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. Indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they had fertility rates identical to those of the year considered.

Statistical Tables Table 1 Historical and projected population for Ontario under three scenarios, 2006–2041 Table 2 Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2006–2041 (reference, low and high scenarios) Table 3 Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 (reference, low and high scenarios) Table 4 Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario Table 5 Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years — reference scenario Table 6 Ontario population by age, 2016–2041 — reference scenario Table 7 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario Table 8 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — low scenario Table 9 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — high scenario Table 10 Greater Toronto Area and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario Table 11 Central Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario Table 12 Eastern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario Table 13 Southwestern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario Table 14 Northeastern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario Table 15 Northwestern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario

Chart Descriptions for Ontario Population Projections Update, Spring 2017 Chart 1 This line chart shows the estimated total population of Ontario from 1971 to 2016, and the projection to 2041 for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, Ontario’s population increased from 7.8 million in 1971 to 14.0 million in 2016. Over the projections period 2016-2041, the three scenarios gradually diverge. In the reference scenario, total population reaches 18.2 million in 2041. Ontario’s population reaches 20.4 million in the high scenario and 16.3 million in the low scenario at the end of the projection period. Return to Chart 1

Chart 2 This chart shows historical annual growth rates of Ontario’s population as bars from 1971 to 2016, and projected growth rates as lines for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, annual growth rates start at 1.4% in 1971-72, and then decline to reach 0.8% in 1980-81. This is followed by higher growth rates culminating at 2.7% in 198889, with a lower peak of 1.8% in 2000-01, and trending lower to reach 0.8% in 2014-15. The projected annual growth rate of Ontario’s population in the reference scenario is 1.8% at the beginning of the projection period, trending down to reach 0.8% in 2040-41. In the high scenario, annual population growth goes from 2.2% to 1.4% over the projection period. In the low scenario, population growth goes from 1.3% in 2016-17 to 0.2% in 2040-41. Return to Chart 2

Chart 3 This area chart shows the annual contribution of natural increase and net migration to Ontario’s population growth from 1971 to 2041. Over the historical period, natural increase was more stable than net migration, starting at about 69,000 in 1971-72, with an intermediate high-point of 79,000 in 1990-91, and a declining trend to 45,000 by 2015-16. Over the projection period, natural increase is projected to rise gradually to reach 59,000 in 2022-23, followed by a steady decline to 20,000 by 2040-41. Net Migration was more volatile over the historical period, starting at about 45,000 in 1971-72, with a low point of 10,000 in 1978-79, peaks of 194,000 in 1988-89, 167,000 in 2000-01, and 141,000 in 2015-16. Annual net migration is projected to decrease initially from 194,000 in 2016-17 to 107,000 in 2020-21, followed by a gradual increase to 130,000 by 2040-41. Return to Chart 3

Chart 4 This population pyramid shows the number of people of each age in Ontario in 2016 and 2041 separately for males and females. In 2016, the pyramid starts at the bottom with about 70,000 each for males and females aged zero, and gradually widens to close to 100,000 people in their early 20s. This is followed by a slight narrowing of the pyramid to about 90,000 each for males and females at ages around 40, and a peak above 100,000 at early 50s ages. The pyramid subsequently narrows to only a few thousand people at ages 95+. The 2041 line starts at around 85,000 each for both males and females at age zero with a fairly gradual increase to a peak of about 120,000 close to age 50, followed by a late peak of about 100,000 close to age 80. Return to Chart 4

Chart 5 This chart has three lines showing the evolution of the share of Ontario’s population in age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ over the 1971-2041 period. The highest proportion is aged 15-64 and is fairly stable over the historical period between 60% and 70%, with a declining trend starting around 2010. Over the projection period, the share of people aged 15-64 is projected to fall from 67.8% to 60.1%. The share of population aged 0-14 is seen falling gradually from 28.4% in 1971 to 15.9% in 2016, with a further decline to 14.9% by 2041. The share of seniors increases slowly from 8.3% in 1971 to 16.4% in 2016, and more rapidly over the projection period to reach 25.0% in 2041. The share of seniors surpassed that of children in 2015. Return to Chart 5

Chart 6 This line chart shows the pace of annual growth of population age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Ontario from 1971 to 2041. The 65+ age group grows faster than the other two groups for most of the historical and all of the projection period, with a peak of 4.6% in 2011-12 and a low close to 1.2% at the end of the projection period. The annual pace of growth of the 1564 age group is seen trending gradually lower from 2.4% in 1971-72 to 0.2% by the mid-2020s, and then rising to 0.9% at the end of the projection period. The annual growth rate of the 0-14 age group is the most volatile, recoding declines from 1971 to 1982 with a trough of -2.3% in 1978-79, and then again from 2004 to 2013. The children group is projected to grow at about 1.1% annually until the mid-2020s, with gradually slower growth reaching 0.2% by 2041. Return to Chart 6

Chart 7 This map shows the evolution of natural increase by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2015-41. The census divisions are split in four categories. Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be negative in both 2016-17 and 2040-41 include: Algoma, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Manitoulin, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Grey, Niagara, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Northumberland, Hastings, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry, Lambton and Chatham-Kent. Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive in 2016-17, but negative by 2030-31 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Greater Sudbury, Huron, Bruce, Renfrew, Prescott & Russell. Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive in 2016-17, but negative by 2040-41 include: Essex, Elgin, Oxford, Brant, Simcoe, Perth, Haldimand-Norfolk, Frontenac. Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive throughout 2016-2041 include: Kenora, Middlesex, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Dufferin, Halton, Peel, York, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa. Return to Chart 7

Chart 8 This chart shows a map of Ontario’s 6 regions with bars showing their total populations in 2016 and 2041. For 2016, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as: Northwest 0.2, Northeast 0.6, Southwest 1.6, Central 3.0, GTA 6.6, East 1.8. For 2041, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as: Northwest 0.2, Northeast 0.5, Southwest 1.8, Central 3.7, GTA 9.5, East 2.2. Return to Chart 8

Chart 9 This map shows the population growth or decline by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2016-41. The census divisions are split in four categories. Census divisions where population is projected to decline include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Algoma, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Manitoulin, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron. Census divisions where population is projection to grow between zero and 15% include: Kenora, Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Essex, Elgin, Bruce, Oxford, Perth, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Peterborough, Hastings, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Renfrew, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry. Census divisions where population is projected to increase between 15% and 35% include: Middlesex, Brant, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Niagara, Kawartha Lakes, Muskoka, Haliburton, Northumberland, Frontenac, Prescott & Russell. Census divisions where population is projected to increase by over 35% include: Dufferin, Simcoe, Halton, Peel, York, Durham, Toronto, Ottawa. Return to Chart 9

Chart 10 This map shows the projected share of seniors in the population of Ontario census divisions in 2041. The census divisions are split in four categories. Census divisions with less than 25% seniors in 2041 include: Kenora, Middlesex, Waterloo, Hamilton, Halton, Peel, York, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa. Census divisions with between 25% and 30% seniors in 2041 include: Cochrane, Greater Sudbury, Essex, Elgin, Oxford, Brant, Perth, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Frontenac. Census divisions with between 30% and 35% seniors in 2041 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Algoma, Timiskaming, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron, Bruce, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Peterborough, Hastings, Lennox & Addington, Renfrew, Prescott & Russell, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry. Census divisions with over 35% seniors in 2041 include: Manitoulin, Sudbury, Parry Sound, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Prince Edward, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville. Return to Chart 10

Chart 11 This map shows the growth in number of seniors in the population of Ontario census divisions between 2016 and 2041. The census divisions are split in four categories. Census divisions with less than 60% projected growth in number of seniors over 2016-2041 include: Rainy River, Cochrane, Timiskaming, Algoma, Manitoulin, Sudbury, Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron, Bruce, Prince Edward, Renfrew. Census divisions with between 60% and 75% projected growth in number of seniors over 2016-2041 include: Kenora, Thunder Bay, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Peterborough, Hastings, Haliburton, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry. Census divisions with between 75% and 100% projected growth in number of seniors over 2016-2041 include: Essex, Middlesex, Elgin, Oxford, Perth, Brant, Niagara, Hamilton, Toronto, Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Lanark. Census divisions with over 100% projected growth in number of seniors over 2016-2041 include: Waterloo, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Halton, Peel, York, Durham, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell. Return to Chart 11

Chart 12 This map shows the growth or decline in number of children aged 0-14 in the population of Ontario census divisions between 2016 and 2041. The census divisions are split in four categories. Census divisions with a projected decline in number of children aged 0-14 over 2016-2041 include: Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Timiskaming, Algoma, Sudbury, Manitoulin, Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron, Perth, Elgin, Haldimand-Norfolk, Hastings, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Renfrew, Leeds & Grenville, Lanark, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry. Census divisions with between 0% and 10% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2016-2041 include: Essex, Bruce, Grey, Oxford, Niagara, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Northumberland, Prescott & Russell. Census divisions with between 10% and 25% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2016-2041 include: Middlesex, Brant, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Muskoka, Haliburton, Frontenac. Census divisions with over 25% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2016-2041 include: Halton, Peel, Dufferin, York, Simcoe, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa. Return to Chart 12

Chart 13 This line chart shows the historical total fertility rate of Ontario women from 1979 to 2011, and projections under the three scenarios for 2017-2041. Over the historical period, the total fertility rate in Ontario was relatively stable, going from 1.61 in 1979 to 1.55 in 2011. Under the reference scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to be relatively stable, starting at 1.55 in 2017 and falling to 1.60 in 2041. Under the high scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to increase from 1.60 in 2017 to 1.9 in 2041. Under the low scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to decline from 1.50 in 2017 to 1.3 in 2041. Return to Chart 13

Chart 14 This line chart shows the historical life expectancy at birth by gender in Ontario from 1979 to 2011, and projections under three scenarios for 2017-2041. For females, life expectancy at birth rose from 78.9 years in 1979 to 84.0 years in 2011. Over the projection period to 2041, life expectancy of females is projected to increase gradually to reach 88.7 years under the reference scenario, 89.8 years under the high scenario, and 87.4 years under the low scenario. For males, life expectancy at birth rose from 71.8 years in 1979 to 79.8 years in 2011. Over the projection period to 2041, life expectancy of males is projected to increase gradually to reach 86.6 years under the reference scenario, 88.0 years under the high scenario, and 85.0 years under the low scenario. Return to Chart 14

Chart 15 This line chart shows the historical immigration rate to Ontario from 1971 to 2016 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, the immigration rate was very volatile, starting at 0.79% in 1971-72, rising to 1.49% by 1975-76, declining to a low of 0.44% by the mid-1980, rising again to 1.38% by 1992-93, then falling gradually to reach 0.66% in 2014-15, and rebounding 0.87% to in 2015-16. Over the projections period 2016-2041, the immigration rate to Ontario is projected to be 0.8% in the reference scenario, to increase gradually to 1.0% in the high scenario, and to decline over time to reach 0.6% in the low scenario. Return to Chart 15

Chart 16 This chart shows historical annual immigration levels to Ontario from 1971 to 2016 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, immigration was very volatile, stating at about 62,000 in 1971-72, rising to 120,000 by 1973-74, falling to 40,000 in the mid-1980s, rising to peak at 153,000 in 2001-02, gradually declining thereafter to reach 90,000 in 2014-15, and rebounding to 20,000 in 2015-16. Immigration to Ontario is projected to increase from 112,000 in 2016-17 to 145,000 in 2040-41 in the reference scenario, from 126,000 to 201,000 in the high scenario, and to decline slightly from 98,000 to 97,000 in the low scenario. Return to Chart 16

Chart 17 This chart shows historical annual emigration levels from Ontario from 1971 to 2016 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, emigration was very volatile, stating at about 13,000 in 1971-72, rising to 22,000 by 1973-74, falling to 8,000 in 1980-81, rising to peak at 27,000 in 1993-94 and declining thereafter to reach an average of about 18,000 from 2013 to 2016. Emigration from Ontario is projected to increase from 18,000 in 2016-17 to 22,000 in 2040-41 in the reference scenario, from 12,000 to 17,000 in the high scenario, and from 24,000 to 25,000 in the low scenario. Return to Chart 17

Chart 18 This chart shows historical annual net gains in non-permanent residents in Ontario from 1971 to 2016 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, the net gain was very volatile, starting with values close to zero in the early 1970s, with a peak of 95,000 in 1988-89, a deep through of -54,000 in 1992-93, and another high level in 2015-16 at 34,000. The projected annual net gain of non-permanent residents in Ontario in the reference scenario is projected to fall in the short term, from 75,000 in 2016-17 to 7,500 by 2020-21, and remain stable thereafter. In the high scenario, the net gain initially declines from 93,500 to 12,500 before stabilizing. In the low scenario, the net gain goes from 56,250 to 2,500 by 202021 and remains at that level for the rest of the projection period. Return to Chart 18

Chart 19 This chart shows the historical net interprovincial migration gain in Ontario from 1971 to 2016 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, net interprovincial migration followed cycles of net gains followed by net losses. Net interprovincial migration was generally negative during the 1970s, the late 1980s and early 1990s, and has been negative since 2003. Positive cycles occurred during the early 1980s and the late 1990s. In 2015-16, net interprovincial migration to Ontario was 6,000. In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration is set at 25,000 for 2016-17, 19,000 for 2017-18, and gradually goes to zero by 2020-21. In the high scenario, a net annual inflow of 38,000 is assumed for 2016-17, 28,000 for 2017-18, followed by a gradual decrease to a net of 5,000 starting in 2020-21. In the low scenario, net interprovincial migration is set at 13,000 for 2016-17, 9,000 for 2017-18, and gradually falls to a net outflow of 5,000 starting in 2020-21. Return to Chart 19

To obtain the most current version of this document, visit ontario.ca/finance and enter 282 in the find page field at the bottom of the webpage or contact the ministry at 1 866 668-8297 (1 800 263-7776 for teletypewriter).