MIT ICAT
Overview of Recent Trends in the Airline Industry
Prof. R. John Hansman With the help of the Faculty and Students of the MIT Global Industry Study Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz
[email protected]
MIT ICAT
World Population Distribution & 2002 Air Transportation Activity
North America 37% Pax 26% Cargo
Europe 27% Pax 28% Cargo
~160 Airlines ~4100 Airports
~200 Airlines ~2400 Airports
Latin America/ Caribbean 5% Pax 3% Cargo ~50 Airlines ~580 Airports
Asia/ Pacific 26% Pax 36% Cargo
Africa 2% Pax 2% Cargo
Middle East 4% Pax 5% Cargo
~20 Airlines ~300 Airports
~20 Airlines ~230 Airports
Population Source:http://www.ciesin.org/datasets/gpw/globldem.doc.html Air Transport Source: ICAO, R. Schild/Airbus Passenger and freight traffic represent RPK and FTK share in 2002
~80 Airlines ~1800 Airports
MIT ICAT
RPK by Region
Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilomters by Region 1400 1200 North America
RPK (billion)
1000
Europe
800
Asia and Pacific Latin America & Caribbean
600
Middle East
400
Africa
200 0 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers
2000
2005
MIT ICAT
Freight Trends by Region Freight Tonne-Kilomters by Region
45 40 35 North America
FTK (billion)
30
Europe
25
Asia and Pacific
20
Latin America & Caribbean
15
Middle East Africa
10 5 0 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers
2000
2005
MIT ICAT
Rapid Cargo Growth since Mid 90s US Scheduled Pax Traffic vs. Cargo Traffic
500 Normalized Traffic Index (1978=100)
Pax (RPM) Freight (FTM)
400
300
200
100
0 1975
1980
Source: Form41 data, all US carriers
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
MIT ICAT
Impact of September 11 US Domestic RPMs Domestic Traffic -- RPMs (Billions)
50 45 40 35 30 25 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
20 Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun
Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report
Jul
Source: ATA, US member airlines, scheduled mainline service
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
MIT ICAT
Cargo Traffic Is Immunized (US Monthly Scheduled FTMs) Scheduled Cargo Traffic -- FTMs (Billions)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report
Source: Form41, all US carriers, scheduled cargo traffic
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
MIT ICAT
US Airline Load Factors 2000-2003 Monthly Load Factor -- System (Percent)
85 80 75 70 65 60 55 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
50 Jan Feb
Mar Apr May Jun
Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report
Jul
Source: ATA, US member airlines, scheduled mainline service
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Annual Change in Average Domestic Fare (2000-2004)
MIT ICAT
Average Domestic Air Fare (Percent Change from Previous Year) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report; eight US major airlines excluding Southwest (WN)
MIT ICAT
Airline Profitability Impact of Sept 11 Quick Recovery
$/ASM
Slow Recovery
Insolvency
Security costs
CASM
RASM
9/11-9/13
Time
MIT ICAT
All Major Carriers On “Slow Recovery” Trajectory Except Southwest
$800
9/11 Attacks Net Income (Loss) in millions
$400
$0 2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
$(400)
$(800)
$(1,200)
AA
UA
DL
NW
CO
WN
$(1,600)
Source: Airline reports
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
MIT ICAT
Operating Performance of Major Pax and Cargo Carriers
$1,600
West Coast Dock Strike
Net Income (Loss) in millions
$1,200
9/11 Attacks
$800
SARS Iraq War
$400 $0 2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
$(400) $(800) $(1,200)
AA
UA
DL
NW
CO
WN
UPS
FedEx
$(1,600)
Source: companies’ annual reports
2001Q3
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
MIT ICAT America West 1.7%
Market Cap: US Majors, 6/10/04 With Jet Blue
ATA 0.3%
US Airways Alaska 0.7% 2.9%
United 0.6%
Continental 3.4%
Northwest 4.3% Delta 3.6%
Jet Blue 13.8%
American 9.4% Southwest 59.3%
Total Market Cap: $20.9 billion Source: Yahoo! Finance. Includes ATA
MIT Current Market Cap vs. RPM Share US Majors and ATA ICAT
Monthly RPM Share 05/04
25%
20%
American
United Delta 15% Northwest 10% Continental
Southwest
US Airways 5%
American West Alaska
JetBlue
ATA 0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Relative Market Cap 06/04
Network vs. Cost Efficiency Questions Source: Yahoo! Finance and airline traffic reports
60%
MIT ICAT
Weak Carriers Vulnerable to LCC Attack Southwest PHL Entry Service since May 9: Chicago (Midway) Las Vegas Orlando Providence
US Airways match many of Southwest's fares with its own new, less restricted "GoFares.“ Both airlines offer the lowest available fares on many competing routes.
US Airways Network Sources:http://www.southwest.com/cities/philadelphia.html, ETMS Data Analysis
$ 79 $ 99 $ 79 $ 29
one-way one-way one-way one-way
MIT ICAT
Emergence of Low-Cost Carriers Europe (60, 3 in 2004)
Canada (7, 1 in 2004) CanJet HMY Airways JetsGo Airlines Tango Airlines
Westjet Zip Canada West
USA (19, 4 in 2003/2004) AirTran Allegiant Air American West ATA Frontier Airlines Interstate Jet JetBlue Airways Midwest Express Pan American Southeast Airlines Southwest Airlines
Spirit Airlines Song Air Sun Country USA 3000 Airlines Vacation Express Ted Independence Virgin USA
Aer Arann Air 2000 Air Baltic Air Berlin Air Finland Air Luxor Lite Air Polonia Air Scotland Air Southwest Air Wales Alpi Eagles Azzurra Air
Baboo Basiq Air Bexx Air BMI Baby British European BudgetAir Corendon Deutsche BA EasyJet Evolavia Excel Airways Fairline Austria
Bra Gol U Air
Sun Express Swedline ThomsonFly V Bird Virgin Express VLM Airlines VolareWeb Windjet Vola Smart Wings Wizz Air Hop
Asia/Pacific (20, 8 in 2004) Africa (2)
South America (3)
Fare4U German Wings Germania Express Globespan Hapag Lloyd Express Hellas Jet Helvetic Airways Iceland Express Ryanair Snalskjutsen SnowFlake Airlines Sterling
1Time Kulula
Source: http://www.etn.nl/lcostair.htm, airline news
Air Arabia Air Asia Air Deccan Athena Air Services Citilink Freedom Air Lion Airways One-Two-Go Skymark Airlines Skynet Asia Airways
ValuAir Virgin Blue Air Blue Air One BackpackersXpress Jetstar Nok Air Pacific Blue SkyAsia Tiger Airways
Total 111 LCCs, 16 started/to start in 2003/2004
MIT ICAT
Macro Scale Drivers US Airline Net Profit
Cyclic Industry with Exponential Growth In Volatility Since Deregulation 6 4
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
2 0 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
-2 -4 -6
Deregulation
-8 -10 -12
Source: ATA, Form41, US Airlines all services
NB: 2001 data includes Air Trans Stabilization Act receipts
US Airlines Net Profit Model - 2002
MIT ICAT
Best Fit of Undamped Oscillation Cycle Period = 11.3 yr
eFolding Time = 7.9 yr
40
Predictions 2003 ($14.3B) 2004 ($13.2B) 2005 ($ 7.0B)
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
30
20
10
0 78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-10
-20 US
US Fit
-30 NB: Predictions are in constant 2000 dollars.
MIT ICAT
Net Profit and Aircraft Deliveries Hypothesize that instability driven by capacity response phase lag
World Airlines Net Profits vs. Aircraft Deliveries 15
1200
5
1000
Net Profits 800
0 600 -5
Deliveries 400
-10
-15 1970 Source: ICAO data
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
200 2005
Aircraft Deliveries (unit)
Net Profit (Current US$ Bn)
10
MIT ICAT
Simple Conceptual Model for Capacity Effects
Economy (GDP)
Latent Latent Demand Price Demand Demand Model Elasticity Social Factors
Revenue
Traffic (RPM)
+-
Target LF Load Factor
Demand
Revenue Management
Yield
Variable Cost
Capacity (ASM)
++ Operating Expense
VarCost/ASM
Capacity
Utilization Rate (%)
Potential Lift (PASM)
Delay (months)
Tactical Scheduling
Fixed Cost
Delay (yrs)
Net Orders
Net Profit
Fleet Planning Retirement
MIT ICAT
Growth Limits Constraints vs Damping
40
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
30
20
Upside: Capacity, Market
10
0 78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
-10
Downside: Financial -20
-30
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
MIT US Airline Performance Cycling Up ICAT Faster Than Predicted 40
Prediction 2003 ($15.3B) Actual 2003 ($3.6B)
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
30
20
10
0 78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-10
-20 US
US Fit
-30 NB: predictions are in current dollars.
MIT ICAT
Profitability Improvement Factors
•
Cargo Airlines Profitable
•
Yields Turned the Corner
•
Wage Concessions
•
Distribution Costs
•
Debt Restructuring & Chapter 11
•
Pensions
•
Security Costs and Insurance?
•
Operating Efficiencies
•
Fuel
US: $1 billion UA: $2.56 billion AA: $2 billion $1 billion
(Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC))
$4 billion
MIT ICAT
Trends in Fuel Price
Historical: Average Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Prices 130
45 System (L)
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
0
Jan-01
40
Jan-00
5 Jan-99
50 Jan-98
10
Jan-97
60
Jan-96
15
Jan-95
70
Jan-94
20
Jan-93
80
Jan-92
25
Jan-91
90
Jan-90
30
Jan-89
100
Jan-88
35
Jan-87
110
Jan-86
Jet Fuel: Cents per Gallon
40
Crude Oil (R)
Source: ATA data; U.S. major, national, large regional passenger and cargo airlines; all services
Crude Oil: Dollars per Barrel
120
MIT ICAT • •
2004 Fuel Hedge Levels
Reduce the risk of high fuel prices by hedging future fuel contracts Many U.S. major carriers lack credit lines or cash to buy hedges
100%
90% 80%
80%
72% 57%
60%
41% 40%
34% 22%
20% 15%
20%
9% 0%
0%
0%
0% AirTran
American Continental JetBlue Northwest EasyJet Qantas Alaska American Delta Southwest Air France Lufthansa West
Source: Lehman Brothers, MSNBC news, Goldman Sachs, airline news
MIT ICAT
Growth Limits Constraints vs Damping
40
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
30
20
Upside: Capacity, Market
10
0 78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
-10
Downside: Financial -20
-30
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
MIT ICAT
Flight Delays Reemerging OPSNET National Delays
60000
Total Delays
50000 2004
40000
2003 30000
2002 2001
20000
2000 10000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Source: FAA OPSNET data
MIT ICAT
Total Delays at Chicago O’Hare Intl ORD: Total Delays
14000
Total Delays
12000 10000
2004
8000
2003
6000
2002 2001
4000 2000 2000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Source: FAA OPSNET data
MIT ICAT •
Runways
•
Weather
Airport System Capacity Limit Factors
Capacity Variability Convective Weather
•
Landside Limits Gates Terminals & Security Road Access
•
Downstream Constraints
•
Controller Workload
•
Environmental Community Noise Emissions
•
Safety
MIT ICAT
Emergence of Secondary Airports
MSP MHT DTW
ORD
ORH
BOS PVD
MDW
OAK/ SJC
STL
SFO
PHL
BLV CVG
BUR
ISP LGA / JFK / EWR
BWI DCA
ONT SNA
LAX
PHX LGB
ATL DFW
Congested major airport
IAH
Secondary airport FLL MIA
(Traffic above 5% MAS M.S.)
Secondary airport (Traffic below 5% MAS M.S.)
Constrained secondary airport Failed secondary airport
MIT ICAT
Additional Capacity at Region Level
18
Number of usable runways (at any time and longer than 5000 ft)
16 14 12 Runways at surrounding airports (50miles)
10 8
Core airports runways
6 4 2 0 Boston region
Chicago region
New York region
Washington Miami region Los Angeles region region
San Fransisco region
MIT ICAT
Identification of Secondary Airports Case study of the Boston Metropolitan Area
PSM MHT ASH LWM BVY BED BOS Logan International Airport
50 m iles
ORH
SFZ PVD EWB
Core airport Secondary airport Surrounding airports (with runways length greater than 5000 ft)
MIT ICAT
Density of Population
Population density
MHT
BOS Logan International Airport
50 m iles
PVD
Population:
Core airport Boston Logan (BOS)
Distribution of Population around Core and Secondary Airports Thousands
MIT ICAT
Factors Influencing the Emergence of Sec. Airports
Distribution of population
300
Primary Basin
250
of Population
200 150 100
Population within 20 miles:
50
44
48
44
48
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
0
4
0
2.6 millions
Secondary airports
Thousands
Distance (in miles) from BOS airport Dis tribution of population
300 250 200 150
Secondary Basin
100
of Population
50
Manchester (MHT)
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
250 200 150 100
Secondary Basin
50
Dis tanc e (in miles ) f rom PV D airport
1.2 million
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
of Population 8
0
0
Population within 20 miles:
8
Dis tr ib ution of popu lation
300
4
Providence (PVD)
Distance (in miles) f rom M HT airport
Thousands
0.6 million
0
Population within 20 miles:
4
0
MIT ICAT
Factors Influencing the Emergence of Sec. Airports Population:
Evolution in the Secondary Airport Location Relative to Primary Basin of Population
Distance (miles) from the primary basin of population to the secondary airport
50
PVD
ISP
40 MHT 30
?
BWI
20 OAK 10
EWR
FLL
MDW IAD
0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Ye ar of Em e rge nce
MIT ICAT
Factors Influencing the Emergence of Sec. Airports Low Cost Carriers: correlated
Secondary Airport Emergence is with Low Cost Carrier entry.
Case : Boston Region
Millions
Enplanements at airports within 50 miles of BOS 16 14 BOS
Enplanements
12 10 8
Southwest entry 6 4
Southwest entry
PVD
2 MHT 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 ASH MHT
BED ORH
Data source: Historical data from FAA Terminal Area Forecasts
BOS PSM
BVY PVD
EWB SFZ
LWM
MIT ICAT •
FAA Air Traffic Responses
Air Traffic Organization Stood Up Russ Chew COO Performance Based Organization In Transition
•
Schedule Reductions at ORD “Voluntary” reduction* United and American to reduce flights by 5 percent between March and October 2004 United cancelled 50 daily flights, American cancelled 27 Collaborative Decision Making Pilot Case
•
“Express Lanes” from Congested Core Systems Delay “peripheral” airports
Source: Subcommittee on Aviation; Hearing on Avoiding Summer Delays And A Review Of The FAA’s Air Traffic Organization; May 13, 2004; http://www.house.gov/transportation/aviation/05-13-04/05-13-04memo.html
New York Center Airspace
MIT ICAT
With Primary EWR Departure Fixes/Jet-routes
MSP, SEA PDX, SLC SFO
YMQ BVT J95
ELM, MKE ORD
ZBW ZNY
J3 6
GAYEL ZOB ZNY
PIT, CLE IND, MCI DEN, PHX LAS, LAX HNL
J6 0
J64
J8 0
ZNY ZDC
8 J4
LGA JKF
WHITE
J20
5
9
J6
J7
IAD, BNA DFW, SAN MEX
COATE TEB ELIOT PARKE LANNA BIGGY EWR
GREKI MERIT
BOS Europe
RIC, ORF, CHS, MCO, PBI, MIA ATL, MSY, IAH BWI, DCA, GSO, CLT, TPA Central and South America Based on Lincoln Laboratory ITWS Map
220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80
Trends in Aircraft Size Domestic
International
Total
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
Average seats per departure
MIT ICAT
Data source: Form 41 Traffic data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics (includes Regional Jets and Turboprops)
MIT ICAT
World Jet Fleet Summary (as of May 14, 2003) Total 17,995 Jet Aircraft
2500 Boeing
Airbus
BAe
Embraer
Bombardier
Dornier
Fokker
2558
Other
1918
2000
1500 1222 1129
1108 1019
966
1000
863
856
764
716 528
491
429
500
228
182
489 390 264
198
186
258
208
104 103
71
94 2
161 191
100 64
81 43
11
0
Source: Airclaims, published by ATW, July 2003
Other
Fokker 70
328JET
BAe 146
Avro RJ-85/100
Avro RJ-70
ERJ-145
ERJ-140
ERJ-135
CRJ900
CRJ700
CRJ200
A340
A330
A310
A300
A321
A320
A319
MD-11
DC-10
777
747
767
757
737NG
717
MD-90
MD-80
DC-9
DC-8
737 (CFMI)
737 (JT8D)
727
707
0
Others include L-1011, Fokker 100, Russia/Ukraine a/c
MIT ICAT
U.S. Regional Jet Growth
1400 1200 1000
CRJ900 CRJ700 CRJ200 CRJ100 EMB135 EMB145 BAE145
800 600 400 200
Source: FAA registration data from 1995 until the present
2003Q4
2003Q2
2002Q4
2002Q2
2001Q4
2001Q2
2000Q4
2000Q2
1999Q4
1999Q2
1998Q4
1998Q2
1997Q4
1997Q2
1996Q4
1996Q1
1995Q3
1995Q1
0
MIT ICAT
Most Common Regional Jets
ERJ 145 (50 seats)
CRJ 200 (50 seats)
About 400 aircraft in national fleet About 2000 daily flights in January 2003 About 400 aircraft in national fleet About 1500 daily flights in January 2003
‘98 ‘99 ‘00 Ap r Ju l O ct Ja n Ap r Ja n
Ja n Ap r Ju l O ct Ja n Ap r Ju l O ct Ja n Ap r Ju l O ct Ja n
MIT ICAT
Regional Jet Density Growth
‘01 ‘02 ‘03
MIT ICAT
Significant Regional Jet Growth at Hub Airports
100%
80%
60%
Non-Hub, Non-Hub Hub, Non-Hub Hub, Hub
40%
20%
0% 1998
•
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
About 90% of regional jet flights depart from or arrive at a hub airport
MIT ICAT
Form 41 Averages by Aircraft Type
Average Trip Length
Pilot Cost/Block Hour
Total Aircraft Operating Cost/ASM
Total Aircraft Operating Cost/Trip
B737
663
430
0.05
4505
B757
1236
547
0.05
10326
A320
1094
411
0.04
6836
A319
931
460
0.05
5359
CRJ200
459
287
0.13
2838
CRJ700
542
215
0.06
2214
EMB135
351
181
0.10
1341
EMB145
354
169
0.09
1572
EMB140
386
187
0.08
1412
Aircraft Type
MIT ICAT
Total Operating Cost per ASM when Pilot Cost/Block Hour is Normalized to $450
0.12 0.1
Base Line
0.08 0.06 0.04
Pilot Cost/Block Hour = 450
0.02 0
B7 37 B7 57 A3 20 A3 CR 19 J2 CR 00 J EM 7 00 B1 EM 3 5 B1 EM 4 5 B1 40
Cost/ASM
($)
0.16 0.14
MIT ICAT
Total Operating Cost per Trip when Pilot Cost/Block Hour is Normalized to $450
($)
12000
Base Line
8000 6000
Pilot Cost/Block Hour = 450
4000 2000 EMB140
EMB145
EMB135
CRJ700
CRJ200
A319
A320
B757
0 B737
Cost/Trip
10000
MIT ICAT
RJ-NB Boundary Blurred
Regional Jets
2400
New Aircraft
2200
B735/6
Range (nm)
ERJ170
Narrow-body B737
ERJ190
2000
MD-90
1800
CRJ700
CRJ900 A319
CRJ200 1600
ERJ145
A318
1400
B717
1200
MD-80
DC-9
1000 20
40
60
80
100
120
A/C Seats Source: based on manufactures’ a/c specifications. Full pax range of standard version
140
160
MIT ICAT •
March Deliveries Lot Alitalia US Airways
•
Orders US Airways 85
EMB 170
MIT ICAT •
First Flight 3/12/04
•
Orders Jet Blue 100 Air Canada 45
EMB 190
MIT ICAT
A-380 •
A380 Baseline Shrink Stretch ER Variants
•
555 passengers (3 class)
•
14,800km/8,000nm range
•
Payload: 330,000lbs over 10,400km/5,600nm
•
Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines or GP7200 engines
•http://www.airbus.com/
MIT ICAT
Boeing 7E7
•200 pax, 7800 nm range •50 firm orders by All Nippon Airways (ANA) •http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/k62790.html
MIT ICAT
Small Turbofan Passenger Aircraft
Eclipse Jet
Cessna Mustang
2100 orders
330+ orders
Adam 700 75 orders
HondaJet
MIT ICAT
Security?
MIT ICAT
Passenger Delays Variable Airport as an Adaptive System
Add’l Pax Screen
Gate Boarding
Security Check
Passengers
Check-In Ckd Bag Screen
Bags/Cargo Ground Transport
Gates
Bag Claim Security Point
Airside
Drop-off Parking
Landside
Pick-up Parking
MIT ICAT
Declining Airport Screener Workforce Workforce of Federal Screeners
60000 56,000
55,600
55000 50000
48,300 45,300
43,800
Jan-04
May-04
45000
Congressional Cap
40000 35000 30000 Dec-02
• •
May-03
Sep-03
Deployed at 451 commercial airports Allocation revised to cover busier airports this summer
Source: Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure – Aviation, Hearing on Aviation Security: Progress And Problems In Passenger And Baggage Screening, Feb 12 2004; http://www.house.gov/transportation/aviation/02-12-04/02-12-04memo.html TSA press releases; Washingtonpost (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34892-2004May17.html)
MIT ICAT •
Immigration
US-VISIT System Photo, Fingerprinting, Biometrics Countries in the Visa Waiver Program: Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brunei, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom
•
Parity Programs Brazil, China
MIT ICAT
Source: Boeing Statistical Abstract
Safety Trend