Indonesia Company Guide
Panin Bank Version 6
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
| Bloomberg: PNBN IJ | Reuters: PNBN.JK
DBS Group Research . Equity
31 Oct 2016
BUY
Undervalued proposition
Last Traded Price ( 28 Oct 2016): Rp805 (JCI : 5,410.30) Price Target 12-mth: Rp1,100 (37% upside) (Prev Rp1,000) Potential Catalyst: Potential M&A target Where we differ: More conservative earnings forecast Analyst Sue Lin LIM +65 8332 6843
[email protected] Benedictus Agung SWANDONO +6221 3003 4935
[email protected]
What’s New
Strong 9M16 earnings due to higher NIM and lower than expected provisions NPL ratio inched down more on write offs Stock is undervalued; valuation is undemanding at 0.6x PBV 17F Maintain BUY; TP raised to Rp1,100 as we roll forward valuation base to 2017
Price Relative
Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (Rpbn) Pre-prov. Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) EPS (Rp) EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) Diluted EPS (Rp) PE Pre Ex. (X) Net DPS (Rp) Div Yield (%) ROAE Pre Ex. (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) BV Per Share (Rp) P/Book Value (x)
2015A 3,788 1,407 1,407 (40.3) 58.4 58.4 (40) 58.4 13.8 0.0 0.0 5.7 5.7 0.9 1,178 0.7
Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (Rp): Other Broker Recs:
2016F 4,088 2,061 2,061 46.5 85.6 85.6 46 85.6 9.4 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 1.2 1,259 0.6
2017F 4,583 2,510 2,510 21.8 104 104 22 104 7.7 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 1.3 1,363 0.6
2018F 5,143 2,931 2,931 16.7 122 122 17 122 6.6 0.0 0.0 8.5 8.5 1.4 1,485 0.5
0 84.9 B: 3
0 98.6 S: 0
0 117 H: 0
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
ASIAN INSIGHTS ed: JS / sa: MA, PY
Maintain BUY; attractive valuation. Panin Bank (PNBN) is currently trading at an undemanding 0.6x FY17BV, lower than average than its historical PBV of 1x. Fundamentals remain solid to deliver above average earnings growth this year, in our view. NPL ratio showed some uptick this year but should be maintained at below 3%. PNBN has gained a reputation for its cautiousness and prudent credit policies, which helped it to navigate across the credit cycle. Such practices are still followed today. Strong 3Q16 result; modest loan growth but higher NIM. 9M16 net profit of Rp1.7tr (+49%y-o-y) represented 83% of both our and consensus full year net profit estimates. Loans grew modestly at 5% y-o-y but top line was mainly driven by net interest margin (NIM) expansion due to lower cost of funds. Strong non-interest income was contributed by treasury income. Operating costs were in check. Provisions in 9M16 grew 77% yo-y but came in below our expectation. Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio declined to 2.6% from 2.8% in 2Q16 but mainly helped by write-offs in 3Q16. M&A still on the cards. Talk on the street is that ANZ will sell out of PNBN. We understand that the glitch remains with the board representation which needs to be sorted out. The 39% stake owned by ANZ, if sold, could trigger a tender offer, but whether that materialises will depend on Panin Financial, i.e. the ultimate family owner. In the longer run, we would not discount the possibility of the family eventually selling out. Valuation: Maintain BUY; TP raised to Rp1,100 as we shift valuation base to 2017. We maintain a BUY rating on PNBN with a target price of Rp1,100 based on Gordon Growth Model (11% ROE, 6% growth rate, and 12.8% cost of equity) that implies 0.7x FY17F BV. Key Risks to Our View: M&A carries timing and tender offer risks. PNBN’s share price remains vulnerable to M&A rumours. Recall that BTPN’s share price jumped c.20% within a month after announcing the M&A with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) but retreated in the subsequent month as there was no tender offer made to minorities. PNBN could be caught in a similar situation if there is no tender offer made. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) Major Shareholders (%) Panin Financial Tbk (%) ANZ Banking Group LTD (%) Free Float (%) 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) ICB Industry : Financials / Banks
24,088 19,391 / 1,484 46.0 38.8 15.2 0.42
VICKERS SECURITIES
Company Guide Panin Bank
WHAT’S NEW Solid 3Q16 performance 3Q16 earnings in line. PNBN’s 9M16 net profit of Rp1.7tr (+49%y-o-y) represented 83% of both our and consensus full year net profit estimates. The strong performance was helped by solid 3Q16 earnings of Rp611bn (+16% q-o-q; +280% y-oy). Higher NIM from lower funding cost. NIM in 9M16 to 4.8% (vs 4.2% in 9M15), mainly due to lower cost of funds after the multiple cuts in the reference rate since the beginning of this year. Meanwhile, non-interest income grew 35% y-o-y, thanks to gains from the sale of marketable securities. This could have been triggered by the recent rally in the bond market and PNBN’s exposure to T Bills and Securities, which comprise 15% of it earning assets. These positives, however, were offset by higher provisions in 9M16 (+77% y-o-y). Operating expenses were flat y-o-y with cost to income ratio lower at 48% from 58% in 9M15. Loans grew 5% y-o-y driven by construction loans. Loans grew modestly by 5% y-o-y, driven by loans in real estate and financial intermediaries which comprised 13% and 10% of the loan portfolio respectively. NPL improved to 2.6% in 3Q16. NPL in inched down to 2.6% from 2.8% in 2Q16 mainly due to write offs during 3Q16. This also brings coverage ratio lower to 97.3% from 104% previously. Maintained solid liquidity and capital position. CASA was flattish at 1% while time deposits grew by 5% y-o-y, bringing the CASA ratio higher at 39% (vs 38% in 2Q16). LDR was slightly lower at 98% (vs 100% in 2Q16) due to less aggressive loans disbursements. PNBN’s capital position continues to be strong with CAR at 21%.
ASIAN INSIGHTS Page 2
Outlook. Modest loan growth outlook. Loan growth is conservatively guided at 5%, lower than the industry which is expected to grow 7-9% in 2016. Management still believes that underlying loan demand has not picked up yet. PNBN does not intend to jump on the infra loans bandwagon and prefers to wait for the trickle-down effect that will channel through their SME clients. Stable NIM around the historical 4%-5%. Further reference rate cuts may lower PNBN’s cost of funds but we believe NIM will be maintained at around the current 4%-5% range. We understand that PNBN is not directly affected by the regulatory pressure of the single digit lending rate initiative. This is different from the big SOE banks which have started to price down loans as a form of acquiescence of the regulator’s demand. However, PNBN is still a price taker in the market, and the lower lending rate may eventually be a drag for them. NPL may not have peaked yet. Despite its conservative stance, PNBN is also plagued with asset quality issues like most of the banks in the industry. Without the write-off in 3Q16, NPL ratio would have shot up to above 3% level. Asset quality deterioration may not be over but management guided that NPL should be maintained above the 3% level. Valuation and recommendation Maintain BUY; TP raised to Rp1,100 as we shift valuation base to 2017. We maintain a BUY rating on PNBN with a target price of Rp1,100 based on Gordon Growth Model (11% ROE, 6% growth rate, and 12.8% cost of equity) that implies 0.7x FY17F BV.
VICKERS SECURITIES
Company Guide Panin Bank
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rpbn) FY Dec 3Q2015 Net Interest Income Non-Interest Income
1,851
2Q2016
3Q2016
% chg yoy
% chg qoq
2,103
2,126
14.9
1.1 (27.1)
225
443
323
43.4
2,076
2,546
2,449
18.0
(3.8)
(1,313)
(1,274)
(1,054)
(19.8)
(17.3)
763
1,272
1,395
83.0
9.7
Provisions
(540)
(572)
(572)
6.0
0.0
Associates
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
Exceptionals
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
Pretax Profit
260
709
831
219.6
17.2
Taxation
(63.8)
(161)
(191)
199.6
19.1
Minority Interests
(35.4)
(23.9)
(28.9)
18.3
20.9
161
524
611
279.8
16.5
Operating Income Operating Expenses Pre-Provision Profit
Net Profit Growth (%) Net Interest Income Gth
6.6
5.3
1.1
(59.8)
(8.7)
16.5
NIM
4.2
4.8
4.8
NPL ratio
2.3
2.8
2.6
Loan-to deposit
94.9
97.2
95.7
Cost-to-income
63.3
50.0
43.0
Total CAR
19.6
20.0
20.8
Net Profit Gth Key ratio (%)
Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS
VICKERS SECURITIES Page 3
Company Guide Panin Bank Margin Trends
CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Earnings Drivers: Sticking to its niche in SME. PNBN has always focused on the SME and commercial segments, particularly traders. Management expects to maintain 45% of its portfolio on SME loans and 15% on corporate loans. Management admitted they have no exposure on infrastructure projects and only expect a trickle-down effect. As such, we believe loan growth should be a modest 7% this year. NIM to stay stable. PNBN should enjoy lower time deposit rates from lower BI rate and deposit rate cap of BI rate +100bps. Time deposit rate has also gained importance for PNBN due to the lower CASA ratio. However, management sees tougher competition this year, limiting NIM upside. Average loan yield last year of 11.5% was the highest in five years and is not sustainable, in our view. Lending rates should also be adjusted with lower cost of funds since PNBN uses a cost-plus formula to price its loans. We expect NIM to stay flat at c.4% in FY16. Maintain liquidity, CASA ratio lower than historical levels. PNBN will keep its loan-to-deposit around the 90% level for 2016. Of its earning assets, 22% was allocated to the short-term money market (2-3 weeks) and marketable bonds to preserve liquidity. PNBN believes that it will be challenging for CASA ratio to revert to the 60% level and it will remain at the mid-40% level due to tighter competition in gathering CASA deposits. No significant increase in operating expenses. PNBN has been conservative in expanding the number of branches this year due to the slow economic environment. Opex should grow at similar rates in the past while cost-to-income should remain stable in the mid 50% level.
Gross Loan& Growth
Customer Deposit & Growth
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio Trend
Limited regulatory risk. PNBN has historically maintained its NIM level at the low 4% level while loan yield hovers between 10% and 11%. We believe the government's intention to either trim down lending rate to single digit or cap NIM at 4% should have minimal impact to PNBN. Normalising credit costs. PNBN has historically booked lower provisions due to its good asset quality management. Provision charge-off rate averaged 0.9% in the last five years. However, pre-implementation of PSAK 50/55, PNBN was conservative with provisions and booked high provision charge-off rates at the 1% level. Post-PSAK 50/55 (from 2011), provision chargeoff rates dropped to the 0.4-0.5% level. The slow economic environment in 2015 induced the bank to undertake aggressive provisioning with provision charge-off rates jumping to 1.3%, sending coverage ratio to a historical high of 118%. We expect the ratio to normalise at 0.8% with coverage ratio maintained above the 100% level.
Cost & Income Structure
Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS Page 4
VICKERS SECURITIES
Company Guide Panin Bank Asset Quality
Balance Sheet: Asset quality to stabilise by end of 2016. A prudent growth strategy has always been PNBN’s priority and the majority of its SME and commercial loans are fully collateralised. As a result, PNBN has always maintained an NPL ratio of below 2% and provision expenses have been low, except for FY15. FY16F remains a challenging year with NPL ratios rising in 1H16, but we expect asset quality to stabilise towards the end of 2016. Strong capitalisation. Capitalisation has been strong due to its conservative growth and high-quality loan book, as well as strong capital boost from retained earnings due to its zerodividend payout policy. Share Price Drivers: Quality earnings; potential M&A target. PNBN has always focused on a conservative but high quality growth strategy with all loans fully collateralised. Asset quality has always been at manageable levels. PNBN is also a potential M&A target because of its attractive valuation. The potential divestment of ANZ's 39% stake in PNBN may be a share price catalyst. The 39% stake owned by ANZ, if sold, could trigger a tender offer, but whether this will materialise will depend on Panin Financial, i.e. the ultimate family owner. In the longer run, we would not discount the possibility of the family eventually selling out.
Capitalisation (%)
ROE (%)
Key Risks: Further asset quality deterioration. PNBN saw its NPL ratio creeping up to 2.6% in 3Q16 while management guided it will not exceed 3%. Weaker than expected asset quality condition should be a negative catalyst. Company Background Panin Bank (PNBN) is one of the largest privately owned local banks in Indonesia, behind BBCA and Permata. PNBN focuses on disbursing loans to SMEs in the growing trade industry.
Forward PE Band (x)
PB Band (x)
Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS
VICKERS SECURITIES Page 5
Company Guide Panin Bank
Key Assumptions FY Dec
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
2018F
Gross Loans Growth Customer Deposits Growth Yld. On Earnings Assets Avg Cost Of Funds
8.7 4.9 9.6 6.5
5.7 1.8 10.0 6.6
10.0 10.0 9.2 5.9
12.0 10.0 9.0 5.7
12.0 10.0 8.9 5.6
Income Statement (Rpbn) FY Dec
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
2018F
5,846 2,240 8,085 (4,289) 3,796 (439) 0.0 0.0 3,477 (894) (227) 0.0 2,356 2,356
6,729 1,491 8,219 (4,431) 3,788 (1,363) 0.0 0.0 2,458 (890) (161) 0.0 1,407 1,407
7,077 1,892 8,969 (4,882) 4,088 (1,060) 0.0 0.0 3,062 (766) (236) 0.0 2,061 2,061
7,808 2,149 9,957 (5,374) 4,583 (890) 0.0 0.0 3,730 (933) (287) 0.0 2,510 2,510
8,719 2,362 11,081 (5,937) 5,143 (831) 0.0 0.0 4,354 (1,089) (335) 0.0 2,931 2,931
(0.5) 4.2
15.1 (40.3)
5.2 46.5
10.3 21.8
11.7 16.7
3.1 3.7 53.0
3.4 4.1 53.9
3.4 4.0 54.4
3.3 4.0 54.0
3.3 4.0 53.6
72.3 27.7 5.4 22.3
81.9 18.1 6.8 11.3
78.9 21.1 5.5 15.6
78.4 21.6 5.5 16.1
78.7 21.3 5.4 15.9
11.9 11.9 1.5 1.5
5.7 5.7 0.9 0.9
7.0 7.0 1.2 1.2
8.0 8.0 1.3 1.3
8.5 8.5 1.4 1.4
Net Interest Income Non-Interest Income Operating Income Operating Expenses Pre-provision Profit Provisions Associates Exceptionals Pre-tax Profit Taxation Minority Interests Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit bef Except Growth (%) Net Interest Income Gth Net Profit Gth Margins, Costs & Efficiency (%) Spread Net Interest Margin Cost-to-Income Ratio Business Mix (%) Net Int. Inc / Opg Inc. Non-Int. Inc / Opg inc. Fee Inc / Opg Income Oth Non-Int Inc/Opg Inc Profitability (%) ROAE Pre Ex. ROAE ROA Pre Ex. ROA
Stable NIM; though competition should limit NIM expansion
Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS Page 6
VICKERS SECURITIES
Company Guide Panin Bank
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rpbn) FY Dec 3Q2015 4Q2015 Net Interest Income Non-Interest Income Operating Income Operating Expenses Pre-Provision Profit Provisions Associates Exceptionals Pretax Profit Taxation Minority Interests Net Profit Growth (%) Net Interest Income Gth Net Profit Gth Balance Sheet (Rpbn) FY Dec
1Q2016
2Q2016
3Q2016
1,851 225 2,076 (1,313) 763 (540) 0.0 0.0 260 (63.8) (35.4) 161
1,967 338 2,305 (1,181) 1,124 (371) 0.0 0.0 720 (441) (20.6) 259
1,998 304 2,302 (1,164) 1,138 (355) 0.0 0.0 790 (191) (24.9) 574
2,103 443 2,546 (1,274) 1,272 (572) 0.0 0.0 709 (161) (23.9) 524
2,126 323 2,449 (1,054)
6.6 (59.8)
6.3 60.9
1.6 122.1
5.3 (8.7)
1.1 16.5
1,395 (572) 0.0 0.0 831 (191) (28.9) 611
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
2018F
Cash/Bank Balance Government Securities Inter Bank Assets Total Net Loans & Advs. Investment Associates Fixed Assets Goodwill Other Assets Total Assets
13,910 14,157 3,354 111,944 13,772 0.0 2,502 0.0 12,944 172,582
14,026 9,154 7,745 117,744 12,751 0.0 9,134 0.0 12,568 183,121
15,389 9,727 9,293 129,161 13,203 0.0 8,888 0.0 13,875 199,537
14,125 10,341 11,152 144,587 13,678 0.0 8,621 0.0 15,618 218,122
12,258 10,998 13,382 161,964 14,177 0.0 8,334 0.0 17,693 238,806
Customer Deposits Inter Bank Deposits Debts/Borrowings Others Minorities Shareholders' Funds Total Liab& S/H’s Funds
126,105 4,753 11,081 7,414 2,253 20,976 172,582
128,316 5,495 9,752 8,752 2,455 28,351 183,121
141,148 5,769 10,383 9,239 2,691 30,307 199,537
155,263 6,058 11,274 9,732 2,978 32,817 218,122
170,789 6,361 12,299 10,296 3,313 35,748 238,806
Lower operating expenses helps bottom line
Majority of loans are to SMEs in trade industry
Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS
VICKERS SECURITIES Page 7
Company Guide Panin Bank
Financial Stability Measures (%) FY Dec Balance Sheet Structure Loan-to-Deposit Ratio Net Loans / Total Assets Investment / Total Assets Cust . Dep./Int. Bear. Liab. Interbank Dep / Int. Bear. Asset Quality NPL / Total Gross Loans NPL / Total Assets Loan Loss Reserve Coverage Provision Charge-Off Rate Capital Strength Total CAR Tier-1 CAR
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
2018F
88.8 64.9 8.0 86.9 3.3
91.8 64.3 7.0 86.6 3.7
91.5 64.7 6.6 86.6 3.5
93.1 66.3 6.3 86.4 3.4
94.8 67.8 5.9 86.3
2.0 1.3 88.9 0.4
2.2 1.4 102.6 1.1
2.8 1.9 88.5 0.8
2.4 1.6 105.3 0.6
2.1 1.5 119.6 0.5
21.6 17.3
20.2 17.6
23.5 17.6
22.2 16.9
21.3 16.5
3.2
NPL should be maintained at below 3%
Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers Target Price & Ratings History
Source: DBS Bank, DBS Vickers Analyst: Sue Lin LIM Benedictus Agung SWANDONO
ASIAN INSIGHTS Page 8
VICKERS SECURITIES
Company Guide Panin Bank
DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
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ASIAN INSIGHTS
VICKERS SECURITIES Page 9
Company Guide Panin Bank
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VICKERS SECURITIES
Company Guide Panin Bank
only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report. Thailand
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