Population Trends 134 - Office for National Statistics [PDF]

Population Trends Contents Regulars In brief

3

Population Trends: Readers’ views invited; Population and migration statistics released in November 2008; ESRC Centre for Population Change; English Life Tables released; New Wave of the Millennium Cohort Study; Divorce Report 2007, correction Demographic indicators

5

Features Ageing and Mortality in the UK – National Statistician’s Annual Article on the Population

6

Karen Dunnell, National Statistician Provides an overview of how the size and structure of the UK population is changing over time, the latest trends in mortality, and the progress of population ageing in the next 25 years Population ‘turnover’ and ‘churn’ – enhancing understanding of internal migration in Britain through measures of stability Adam Dennett and John Stillwelll

24

Gives an insight into the population dynamics within and between local areas in Britain The National Population Projections Expert Advisory Group: results from a questionnaire about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration Chris Shaw

42

Reviews the use of a survey among experts on population projections to assist in projecting the UK’s population in the future

No 134 Winter 2008 Office for National Statistics

Tables List of tables Tables 1.1-9.3 Notes to tables

55 56 84

Annual update Births in England and Wales, 2007

85

Other population and health articles, publications and data

90

ISBN 978-0-230-21758-4 ISSN 0307–4463

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About us The Office for National Statistics The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the executive office of the UK Statistics Authority, a non-ministerial department which reports directly to Parliament. ONS is the UK government’s single largest statistical producer. It compiles information about the UK’s society and economy which provides evidence for policy and decision-making and in the allocation of resources. The Director of ONS is also the National Statistician. Palgrave Macmillan This publication first published 2008 by Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA Companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

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Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 134

Wi n t e r 2008

in brief Tell us what you think At ONS we continually drive to maintain the quality of Population Trends as an important demographic journal. The views of our readers are important to us and we would welcome any comments and suggestions you have about the future scope and direction of the journal to ensure it remains fresh and pertinent while maintaining the high standards expected by our readership. Please email your comments and suggestions to: [email protected]. Readers are also reminded that we always welcome submission of papers from external colleagues that are appropriate to the scope of the journal.

New Population and Migration Statistics A number of statistics were published on 19 November 2008, including: O

O

O

O

International Migation, First Release, calendar year 2007, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ Product.asp?vlnk=15053 Mid-2007 population estimates for Lower level and Middle level Super Output Areas, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/ StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14357 Mid-2007 population estimates by Marital Status and revised mid 2002 – mid 2006 estimates, available at: www.statistics.gov. uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15107 Population estimates by nationality and country of birth, April 2007 – March 2008,

available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ Product.asp?vlnk=15147 O

O

Inter-regional migration movements within the UK. Year to March 2008, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product. asp?vlnk=10191 Quarterly population estimates for English regions (GORs) and Wales, Q3 2008, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ Product.asp?vlnk=13523

Three ONS reports were released on the same date: 1.

A feasibility report on local area short-term immigration estimates, available at: www. statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/ VSHFL¿FSRSXODWLRQIXWXUHLPSVXSGDWHV downloads/STM_Local_Estimation.pdf

2.

Report on subnational population projections consultation on projection variants, available at: www.statistics.gov. uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=997

3.

The November 2008 update of the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme was recently published here: www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/ PHWKRGRORJ\VSHFL¿FSRSXODWLRQIXWXUH imps/updates/downloads/msiwpnov.pdf

Demographic statistics for different government departments are presented in a coordinated manner on a limited number of dates throughout the year (as reported earlier in Population Trends 132 in brief) as part of the ‘coherent reporting’ programme.

ESRC Centre for Population Change The Economic and Social Research Council will be funding a Centre for Population Change,

based jointly at the University of Southampton DQGDWWKH*HQHUDO5HJLVWHU2I¿FHIRU6FRWODQG *526 LQ(GLQEXUJK)XQGLQJLVIRUD¿YH year period up to 2013. The Centre will bring together experts from across the social science disciplines to carry out research that will lead to a better understanding of the key drivers of population change and the implications for economic welfare and social support at the national, local, household and individual level. Academic expertise at Southampton will be complemented by a consortium of Scottish academics (coordinated by St Andrews University). The Centre will be collaborating with ONS, GROS and the Scottish Government, building on long-established links between ONS and the University of Southampton and on existing partnerships between Scottish universities, GROS and the Scottish Government. The Centre’s programme of research will be organised around four substantive themes: O

Dynamics of fertility and family formation

O

Household dynamics and living arrangements across the life course

O

The demographic and socio-economic implications of national and trans-national migration

O

Modelling population growth and enhancing the evidence base for policy

7KHVHWKHPHVUHÀHFWWKHFULWLFDOUROHLQUHFHQW population change played by low fertility, changing living arrangements, increasing migration and population ageing. The VFLHQWL¿FUHVHDUFKDJHQGDKDVEHHQGHYHORSHG in consultation with ONS and GROS, to ensure that the work undertaken is relevant to government at all levels. The Centre is also committed to enhancing the capacity of the social science community to meet the research challenges presented by population change. 3

O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l St a t i sti c s

Po pu la t io n Tr e n ds 1 3 4

Win t e r 2 0 0 8

Jane Falkingham (University of Southampton) is director of the ESRC Centre, with co-directors Paul Boyle (St Andrews University), Maria Evandrou and Sue Heath (University of Southampton).

¿JXUHV\HDUVIRUPDOHVDQG\HDUV for females. Glasgow City also had the lowest life expectancies at age 65: a further 13.8 years for men and 17.4 years for women. The FRUUHVSRQGLQJ¿JXUHVIRU.HQVLQJWRQDQG Chelsea – again the highest – were 22.7 years for men and 25.2 years for women.

National Interim Life Tables and Local Life Expectancy Data, 2005–07 Summary of children in the Millennium Cohort at age 5

Full data are available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product. asp?vlnk=14459 for the interim life tables, and www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product. asp?vlnk=8841 for the local area data.

2Q2FWREHUWKH2I¿FHIRU1DWLRQDO Statistics published period life expectancy data for 2005–07. This included the National Interim Life Tables and life expectancies data for local authorities in the UK. The new life tables show that period life expectancy at birth in the UK – the average number of years a newborn child could expect to live if mortality remained at 2005–07 levels – reached a record high of 77.2 years for males; 81.5 years for females. This was a rise of 6.4 years for males and 4.7 years for females over the 25 years since 1980–82.

Within the UK, England has the highest life expectancies at birth (77.5 years for males, 81.7 years for females) and Scotland the lowest (74.8 years for males, 79.7 years for females). Period life expectancy at age 65 in the UK – the average additional number of years people reaching age 65 could expect to live if mortality remained at 2005–07 levels – was 17.2 years for males and 19.9 years for females. Again England had the highest values (17.3 years for males; 20.0 years for females), and Scotland the lowest (16.0 years for males; 18.7 years for females). Within England the highest levels of life expectancy at both birth and age 65 were found in the South East, the South West and the East of England. Figures were lowest for the North West and North East. The local authority with the lowest life expectancy at birth was Glasgow City, at 70.8 years for males and 77.1 years for females, while Kensington and Chelsea had the highest

The Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) interviewed over 15,000 children at age 5 across the UK. Data include responses from both parents, direct assessments of the cohort child’s cognitive development and physical growth as well as evidence from teachers. At age 5 over three quarters of MCS children were living with both of their natural parents, the majority of whom were married. A minority RI¿YH\HDUROGVZHUHOLYLQJZLWKHLWKHUDORQH mother (17 per cent) or a natural mother and a step-father (4 per cent). The most common family change for this cohort between sweeps 1 and 3 was the arrival of a younger sibling, which happened in four families out ten. This period saw the MCS children begin school. Around 5 per cent of MCS children attend private school, although this varies by area with around 16 per cent of MCS children in inner London attending private schools. Among the parents choosing to send their children to state primary schools, most said they succeeded LQVHFXULQJWKHLU¿UVWFKRLFHVFKRRODQGZHUH happy with the school. Children’s academic achievement at age 5 was measured by the teacher in the Foundation 6WDJH3UR¿OH)63 LQ(QJODQGRUWKHSRVWDO Teacher Survey (in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (produced by the Centre for Longitudinal Studies to replicate the information

collected by the FSP). Results showed variation in achievement across child and family characteristics – on average older children, girls and children with more highly educated parents achieved higher scores, as did children living in households with higher family incomes. These characteristics were similarly related to the cognitive tests administered as part of the MCS survey – which tested three sub-scales of the British Ability Scales – naming vocabulary, picture similarities and pattern construction. At age 5 the majority of MCS children were in good health, but there were differences across socio-economic groups. Poor children fared substantially worse than others in terms of both their reported level of general health and VSHFL¿FFRQGLWLRQV In general boys fared worse than girls in terms of many health outcomes, and the gap was widest on variables such as speech problems DQGEHGZHWWLQJZKLFKUHÀHFWIDLOXUHWRDFKLHYH developmental milestones. Girls were more likely to be overweight or obese than boys at age 5, as they had also been at age 3. Measurements of Body Mass Index puts overweight and obesity at 22 per cent overall at age 5 but suggests they are more weakly associated with economic inequality than many other health outcomes. For further details please see: Hansen and Joshi ‘Initial Findings of the Third Sweep of the Millennium Cohort Study’, October 2008.

Divorce 2007 Report There was a production error in Table 3 of the report entitled Divorces in England and Wales during 2007, published in Population Trends 133 on 25 September 2008. Numbers of divorces shown by age group within the report are correct. However, divorce rates by age group for 1997 to 2004 were produced using incorrect estimates of the marital status of the population. A corrected version of the table is available on the ONS website (www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_ population/PT133_part2.pdf). ONS apologises for any inconvenience caused.

Recent Publications Annual Abstract of Statistics 2008 edition (Palgrave Macmillan, £49.50, July, ISBN 978-0-230-54560-1, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/ statbase/product.asp?vlnk=94) Construction Statistics Annual 2008 edition (Palgrave Macmillan, £50, August, ISBN 978-0-230-57461-8, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/ statbase/product.asp?vlnk=284) Health Statistics Quarterly 40 (Palgrave Macmillan, £32.50, November, ISBN 978-0-230-21763-8, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ product.asp?vlnk=6725) Offic e fo r Nat ion al S t at ist ic s

4

Mid-year population estimates for 2007 (August, available at: www. statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/popest0808.pdf) Mortality statistics: childhood, infant and perinatal 2006 (DH3 no. 39) (July, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product. asp?vlnk=6303) Print copies of the Palgrave Macmillan-published titles can be ordered on 01256 302611 or online at www.palgrave.com/ons.

Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 134

Wi n t e r 2008

Demographic indicators Figure A

England and Wales

Population change (mid-year to mid-year)

Thousands 400 Natural change

Total change

300 200 100 0 –100

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1–7 72–7 73–7 74–7 75–7 76–7 77–7 78–7 79–8 80–8 81–8 82–8 83–8 84–8 85–8 86–8 87–8 88–8 89–9 90–9 91–9 92–9 93–9 94–9 95–9 96–9 97–9 98–99–200000–0001–0002–0003–0004–0005–0 9 2 2 2 2 2 2 Mid-year

197

Figure B

Total fertility rate

TFR (average number of children per woman) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1971

1973

Figure C

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989 Year

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

1983

1985

1987

1989 Year

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

1985

1987

1989 Year

Live births outside marriage

Percentage of all live births 50 40 30 20 10 0 1971

1973

Figure D

1975

1977

1979

1981

Infant mortality (under 1 year)

Rate per thousand live births 20 15 10 5 0 1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

5

2001

2003

2005

O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l St a t i sti c s

Po pu lat ion Tr e n ds 1 3 4

Win te r 2 0 0 8

Ageing and Mortality in the UK National Statistician’s Annual Article on the Population Karen Dunnell National Statistician

The population of the UK is growing at the fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing on average by 0.5 per cent each year. The fastest growing age group is those aged 85 years and older, who now represent just over 2 per cent of the population, compared to just over 1 per cent in 1982. In 2007, continued increase in the population over state pension age meant for the first time this sub-group of the population exceeded the number aged under 16. Further improvements in survival mean both the continued growth of the older population and the likely continued ageing of the population as a whole.

Introduction The population of the UK is growing in size and becoming increasingly ROGHU7KHJURZWKLQWKHROGHUSRSXODWLRQODUJHO\UHÀHFWVWKHDJHLQJ of those people resident in the UK and this trend is likely to continue into the future. In 2007 there were about 9.8 million people aged 65 or over in the UK, but by 2032 this number is projected to be as high as 16.1 million. There were 1.3 million people in the UK in 2007 aged over 85, which is projected to increase to 3.1 million by 2032. Population DJHLQJZLOOEULQJEHQH¿WVEXWDOVRDQHZVHWRIFKDOOHQJHVWRVRFLHW\± for example, ensuring access to services, housing, welfare, pensions and EHQH¿WVDQGLQRWKHUDUHDV Awareness of population ageing issues is not new, and the demographic ageing seen in the UK is shared with other developed countries. Appropriate statistical and research intelligence will be needed to inform SROLF\PDNHUVDQGFODULI\UHTXLUHPHQWVIRUVHUYLFHGHOLYHU\7KH2I¿FH for National Statistics (ONS), in conjunction with the Welsh Assembly *RYHUQPHQW:$* WKH*HQHUDO5HJLVWHU2I¿FHIRU6FRWODQG*526  and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), are committed to improving the evidence base for this ageing society. Research plays a central role in providing information for policy makers in explaining the process and consequences of ageing.

This is the second in a series of annual reports on the population of the UK, providing an overview of the latest statistics on the population, and focussing on a specific theme. This year’s theme is the ageing population, with different topics to be covered in future years. The report highlights the work being taken forward as part of the National Statistics Centre for Demography (NSCD) work programme to understand the social and demographic impacts of an ageing society. Officeefofor rNat Natioion t atist isticics s Offic nalalSSt at

This report provides a brief overview of the current population of the UK. It then focuses in detail on demographic and other characteristics of the older population. Since the growth in the older population has mainly been driven by improvements in mortality at older ages over the second half of the 20th century, trends in mortality are presented. Finally, the report describes the impact of an ageing population on changes in health expectancy and employment and incomes of older people. 6

Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 134

Table 1

Wi n t e r 2008

Population estimates, mid-1982 to mid-2007 – UK and constituent countries

Percentage increase

millions mid-1982

mid-1987

mid-1992

mid-1997

mid-2002

mid-2007

1982–2007

2002–2007

UK

56.3

56.8

57.6

58.3

59.3

61.0

8.3

2.8

England

46.8

47.3

48.0

48.7

49.7

51.1

9.2

2.9

Wales

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

6.3

2.1

Scotland

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

–0.4

1.8

Northern Ireland

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

13.9

3.7

Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1982 to 2007, ONS, GROS, NISRA

Overview of the UK population In 2007 the population of the UK was almost 61 million1. This was an 8 per cent increase from just over 56 million in 1982, and a 3 per cent LQFUHDVHIURPMXVWRYHUPLOOLRQLQWKH¿YH\HDUVVLQFHTable 1). Between 1982 and 2007, the populations of England, Wales and Northern Ireland increased by 9 per cent, 6 per cent and 14 per cent respectively, while the population of Scotland showed a slight decline. Over the past ¿YH\HDUVKRZHYHUDOOIRXUFRXQWULHVKDYHH[SHULHQFHGSRSXODWLRQ growth.

Components of total population change Population change is driven partly by the balance between the number of births and the number of deaths (natural increase), and partly by the volume of international migration into and out of the UK.

The UK population grew by almost 1.7 million between mid-2002 and mid-2007: this is the fastest rate of increase since the 1960s The population pyramid in Figure 1 shows that in 2007 there were fewer \RXQJSHRSOHDJHG± WKDQLQDQGPDQ\PRUHDJHGEHWZHHQ 35 and 60. In 1982 there were many young people who had been born in the post-war and 1960s baby booms. By 2007 these baby boom cohorts were middle aged, and there have been comparatively low fertility rates during decades since the late 1960s. As these larger cohorts age, they are replaced by comparatively smaller generations.

In 2007 there were 772,000 live births in the UK, an increase of over 15 per cent from 669,000 in 20022. The total fertility rate (TFR) in the UK has risen consistently from a record low of 1.63 children per woman in 2001 to 1.90 children per woman in 2007. This is the highest TFR since 1980, but is still below replacement level and much lower than the rates seen during the 1960s baby boom (Figure 2). The recent rise in the TFR has occurred in all four countries of the UK. The total fertility rate in the UK has risen consistently from a record low of 1.63 children per woman in 2001 to 1.90 children per woman in 2007

The number of people aged 85 or over rose from 0.6 million in 1982 to 1.3 million in 2007 Overall between 1982 and 2007 the proportion of people in the UK who were children (aged under 16) fell from 22 per cent to 19 per cent of the total population. The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 increased from

Figure 1

63 to 65 per cent, and the share aged 65 or over also increased slightly. Most striking, however, was the growth in the number of very old people: in 1982 there were 0.6 million people aged 85 or over (1.1 per cent of WKHWRWDO EXWE\WKLV¿JXUHKDGPRUHWKDQGRXEOHGWRPLOOLRQ (2.1 per cent). In 2007, the number of people of state pensionable age H[FHHGHGWKHQXPEHUXQGHUWKHDJHRIIRUWKH¿UVWWLPHDQGWKLVLV projected to continue.

In 2007 there were 575,000 deaths registered in the UK3, 275,000 for males and 300,000 for females. Period life expectancy at birth in the UK has risen steadily over the past 25 years (Figure 3). Latest estimates4

Age structure of the UK population: mid-1982 and mid-2007 (thousands) 105 2007

1982

2007

1982

90 Males

Females 75 60 45 30 15 0

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1982 and 2007, ONS, GROS, NISRA

7

O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l St a t i s ti c s

Po pu lat ion Tr e n ds 1 3 4

Figure 2

Win te r 2 0 0 8

Box one

Total fertility rate, UK and constituent countries, 1967 to 2007

3.5

Period and cohort life expectancy

3.0

Period life expectancy at a given age for an area is the average number of years a person would live, if he or she experienced the particular area’s mortality rates for that time period throughout his or her life.  It makes no allowance for any later actual or projected changes in mortality.

2.5

TFR

2.0

Cohort life expectancies are calculated using mortality rates which allow for known or projected changes in mortality in later years and are thus regarded as a more appropriate measure of how long a person of a given age would be expected to live, on average, than period life expectancy.

1.5 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK

1.0 0.5 0.0 1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

Source: Birth registration data and mid-year population estimates, 1967 to 2007: ONS, NISRA, GROS

based on mortality rates for 2005–07, and compared to mortality rates for 1980–82, indicate that life expectancy for newborn boys has risen more than six years to 77.2 years, while that for newborn girls has risen by over four years to 81.5 years. These estimates of life expectancy do not take into account projected improvements in mortality during the lifetime of children born in 2005–07. Allowing for the projected mortality improvements assumed in the 2006-based population projections, cohort life expectancy (see Box one) at birth in 2006 was 88.1 years for boys and 91.5 years for girls. Life expectancy in the UK has risen steadily to 77.2 years for men and 81.5 years for women in 2005–07, and is expected to continue to rise

International migration In 2006, 191,000 more people came to live in the UK for a year or more than left to live overseas5 (Figure 4). An estimated 591,000 long-term

Figure 3

100

international migrants arrived to live in the UK, of whom 86 per cent were non-British citizens. The estimated number of people emigrating from the UK reached a record high of 400,000 in 2006, of whom just over half were British citizens. In 2006, 191,000 more people came to live in the UK for a year or more than left to live overseas Mid-year population estimates only take into account international migration that is ‘long-term’, namely the migration of people who are coming to or leaving the UK for one year or more. Experimental estimates of short-term migration6 (based on the UN definition of visits lasting between 3 and 12 months for work or study only) indicate that an additional 81,000 people were, on average, temporarily resident in England and Wales, at any given time during the year to mid-2006.

Latest population projections The population of the UK is expected to continue to grow7 and reach 65 million by 2017 (an increase of 7 per cent compared with the mid-2007 estimate), 71 million by 2032 and 79 million by 2057. In addition the UK constituent countries and English regions are all projected to experience population growth. As Table 2 indicates, between 2007 and 2031 the

Period and cohort life expectancy at birth: change over time Period life expectancy at birth, UK 1980–82 2005–07 2031

Cohort life expectancy at birth, UK 1981 2006 2031

80

Years

60

40

20

0 Males

Females

Source: Interim Life Tables and National Population Projections, ONS

Offic e fo r Nat ion al S t at ist ic s

8

Males

Females

Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 134

Figure 4

Wi n t e r 2008

Total international long-term migration to and from the UK, 1991 to 2006

600 500 400 Thousands

Immigration

Emigration

300 200 Net flow = Inflow – Outflow 100 0 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

–100

Source: Total International Migration estimates, ONS

Table 2

Population estimates, mid-2007, and mid-2006 based population projections 2012 to 2031 – UK and constituent countries

Percentage increase

millions mid-2007

mid-2012

mid-2017

mid-2022

mid-2027

mid-2031

2007–2012

2007–2031

United Kiingdom

61.0

63.2

65.4

67.6

69.6

71.1

3.7

16.6

England

18.3

51.1

53.1

55.1

57.2

59.0

60.4

4.0

North East

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.8

1.5

8.0

North West

6.9

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.7

2.7

12.1

Yorkshire and The Humber

5.2

5.4

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

4.8

22.0

East Midlands

4.4

4.6

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.4

24.8

West Midlands

5.4

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.0

6.1

2.9

13.6

East

5.7

5.9

6.2

6.5

6.8

7.0

5.1

23.6

London

7.6

7.9

8.2

8.4

8.7

8.9

4.3

17.2

South East

8.3

8.6

8.9

9.3

9.6

9.8

3.7

18.1

South West

5.2

5.4

5.7

5.9

6.2

6.4

4.6

23.1

Wales

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

2.4

10.6

Scotland

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

1.5

4.5

Northern Ireland

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

3.7

13.6

Note: the projections in this table are at five year intervals. However, the last interval (2027 to 2031) is only four years as 2031 is the latest year for which annual regional level data are available. Source: ONS, GROS, NISRA

population of England is projected to increase by 18 per cent, with the highest growth in the East Midlands (25 per cent) and the slowest in the North East (8 per cent). Subnational population projections assume that current trends in fertility, mortality and migration will continue. Over the same period the population of Wales is projected to increase by 11 per cent, and that of Northern Ireland by 14 per cent. Scotland, however, is projected to experience a more limited population growth of 4 per cent. It is projected that the population of the UK will increase by over 10 million (17 per cent) by 2032

Focus on ageing and the older population

Population ageing is a result of the demographic transition that has been occurring in most western societies since the late 18th century. These changes are unprecedented in demographic history8. Over the past 150 years, there have been falls in both the birth and death rates. These have resulted in changes in the size of the cohorts that are becoming older and changes in the chances of survival into later life. Decreases in mortality during the 20th century, combined with declines in fertility rates, have resulted in the increasingly aged populations of today. 7KHPRVWFRPPRQO\XVHGGH¿QLWLRQRIROGDJHWKURXJKRXWWKHWK century and today is the age at which a person becomes entitled to UHFHLYHVWDWHSHQVLRQEHQH¿WV8QWLOUHFHQWO\WKLVWHQGHGWREHRULQ most European countries9. The increase in life expectancy over the last century means that reaching the age of 85 years or over is no longer rare.

What do we mean by old age and population ageing?

Age and gender structure of the older population

The term ‘ageing’ covers both the ageing of the population and the increasing number of people reaching old age. The ageing of the population refers to the increase in the average age of that population.

Over the last 25 years the number of people aged 65 and over in the UK has increased by 16 per cent, from 8.5 million to 9.8 million. The number of children aged under 16 has declined by nearly 800,000 over the same 9

O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l St a t i s ti c s

Po pu lat ion Tr e n ds 1 3 4

Figure 5

Win te r 2 0 0 8

100

Population share, percentage

In addition, the older population itself is ageing. The fastest increases in population numbers were seen for the population aged 85 and over (sometimes described as the ‘oldest old’). Since 1982, the numbers of ‘oldest old’ have risen by nearly 680,000, to reach 1.3 million in 2007. The ‘oldest old’ population represented 1.1 per cent of the total population in 1982 and, after more than doubling in number by 2007, currently represents 2.1 per cent of the total population.

Population age structure, 1982–2032, UK

85 and over 65–84 16–64