Idea Transcript
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
1
Contents Macroeconomic Developments …………………………………………..3 Inflation Economic Growth Current Account Fiscal Sector
Banking System Developments …………………………………………19 Financing Arrangement with the EU, IMF and other IFIs ….……......30
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
2
Macroeconomic Developments
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
3
Inflation followed an uneven downward path, its volatility being largely brought about by the non-core components … 10
contribution to annual inflation rate; percentage points
8
6
4
2
0 adjusted CORE2
volatile prices
administered prices
tobacco and alcohol
Apr.13
Jan.13
Oct.12
Jul.12
Apr.12
Jan.12
Oct.11
Jul.11
Apr.11
Jan.11
Oct.10
Jul.10
Apr.10
Jan.10
Oct.09
Jul.09
Apr.09
Jan.09
Oct.08
Jul.08
Apr.08
Jan.08
Oct.07
Jul.07
Apr.07
Jan.07
-2
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
4
…and is seen reentering the NBR target band in the latter half of 2013 10
annual percentage change
9 8
annual percentage change
Flat multi-annual inflation target (Dec./Dec.): 2.5% starting 2013
uncertainty interval
9
4-quarter inflation rate (eop)
8
variation band*
7
10
7
annual inflation target
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
I 2012
II
III
IV
I 2013
II
III
IV
I 2014
II
III
IV
I 2015
*) ±1 percentage point around the central target Note: According to the May 2013 Inflation Report. The uncertainty interval was calculated based on the forecast errors of the annual CPI inflation rate in the NBR projections during 2005-2012. The forecast errors are positively correlated to the time horizon to which they refer. Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania projections and calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
5
Determinants of annual adjusted CORE2 inflation projection Contributions to annual adjusted CORE2 inflation (pp)
Inflation expectations* are seen abating over the projection interval, under the impact of an adequate monetary policy stance and of the anticipated absence of adverse supply-side shocks
8 VAT import prices output gap
6
inflation expectations annual adjusted CORE2 inflation rate (%)
Inflationary pressures from import prices are considered low, due to a favourable shock on the leu effective exchange rate in early 2013 and moderate effects from external price increases
4
2
0
The negative output gap continues to have a disinflationary impact throughout the forecast interval
-2 2011 Q1
*) backward- and forward-looking
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
Note: The annual adjusted CORE2 inflation is calculated as a quarterly average, in line with its econometrically-modelled determinants. Source: NBR calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
6
Economic growth resumed in 2011 and is seen accelerating in 2013 … annual percentage change 10 8 6
GDP
GDP excl. agr.
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Q1
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
7
… largely as a result of strengthening industrial activity, … annual percentage change, gross data
10.3 9.3 8.2
7.5 5.5 2.7
2.4
-3.1 -5.5 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Jan.-Apr.
Apr.13/Apr.12: 18.9%; Apr.13/Mar.13: 4.0% Source: National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
8
… especially in the export-oriented sectors… 25
%, yoy
20
2012 Jan.-Apr. 2013
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 rubber and plastic materials
electrical equipment
Automotive industry
motor vehicles
textiles
wearing apparel
footwear
Light industry
wood
furniture
Wood and wood manufacturing
Source: National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
9
… on account of rapidly increasing external demand from both EU and non-EU markets (particularly for the automotive sector) 160
%, 2008=100 higher demand for electrical equipment
140
higher demand for motor vehicles
120
100
80 exports to non-EU markets exports to EU markets 60 2009
2010
2011
2012
Jan.-Apr. 2013
Source: Eurostat, National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
10
The recent spur in economic growth is therefore entirely attributable to net exports, … percentage points
percent
25
10
20
8
15
6
10
4
5
2
0
0
-5
-2
-10
-4
-15
-6
-20
-8 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Q1
actual final consumption of households
actual final consumption of general government
gross fixed capital formation
net exports
change in inventories
real GDP (rhs)
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
11
… the favourable dynamics of which contributed to a significant improvement in the current account balance EUR million
percent of GDP
2,000
1.2
1,000
0 -3.3
-3.7
-4.2 -5.5
-3.9
-1,000
-4.4 -4.5
-5.8
-2,000 -8.4
-8.6
-3,000
current transfers income -10.4
services -11.6
-4,000
trade balance current account balance
2013 Q1
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2013 Q1
2012
2011
2010
2009
-5,000 2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-13.4
Source: National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
12
Public debt remains well below the Maastricht criterion and is seen stabilising under 39% of GDP, … 45
percent of GDP
40
37.8
held by residents
35
34.7
held by non-residents
30.5
30
18.60
15
15.61
18.7 5.28
15.8 4.74
10 5
17.62
23.6
25 20
38.6
13.46
12.17
12.4
12.8
13.4
2.56
4.05
5.72 14.85
11.05
17.07
19.20
11.46
9.80
8.75
7.69
2006
2007
2008
0 2004
2005
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013f* f) forecast
Note: Government securities in MFIs portfolio as a share of GDP in Dec.07=1.4%, Dec.08=2.1%, Dec.09=7.1%, Dec.10=9.6%, Dec.11=10.8%, Dec.12=11.7% and Apr.13=10.8%
*) 2013-2016 Convergence Programme
Source: Ministry of Public Finance, National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
13
… but has been the sole contributor to the MLT external debt growth Total External Debt EUR billion
EUR billion
ST debt (majority private debt)
100 90
20.6 22.8 20.3
MLT debt
19.5
80
80
13.5
19.9
24.6 28.6
Apr. 2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
40 30 20
7.2 12.4 17.0 7.9 3.2 5.5 5.7 0.4 0.9 1.0
2007
2006
2005
35.5 25.3
10.0
0 2004
10.7
60
8.2
8.5
7.8
9.1 10.2 8.7
7.0 7.8
10 0
Apr. 2013
11.3
2009
18.3
38.7
2007
3.2
2012
51.8
2011
65.6
6.3
37.7 36.1 37.1 36.7 39.2
10.2
2006
30
78.7 80.3 72.9 75.9
2010
12.6
2005
40
70
50
10.7
2008
50
10
90
17.9 21.1 25.1 28.8
20.6
60
110 100
15.6
70
20
public and publicly guaranteed debt* private debt deposits of non-residents IMF loans (without MPF)**
2004
110
MLT External Debt
*) external loans taken directly/guaranteed by the MPF and local general government in compliance with the legislation on public debt, including Government Emergency Ordinance No. 99/2009 ratifying the Stand-By Arrangement between Romania and the IMF **) IMF borrowings under the Stand-By Arrangement concluded with the IMF, excluding the amount received by the MPF from the IMF according to Government Emergency Ordinance No. 99/2009
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
14
After peaking at 9% of GDP in 2009, the public deficit was successfully brought down to below 3% in 2012 … 0
percent of GDP
percent
-1
-4
-1.4 -2.4
-1.7 -2.6
-2.7
-5.6 -6.8
-7
-2
-7.9
-8
-1
-6.2
-5.7
-6
general government balance (ESA95) structural balance*
-10 2005
2006
2007
2008
-3 -4
fiscal impulse** (rhs)
-9.5
-9.0
-9
2004
2
0
-4.9
-5
3
1
-4.0
-3.5
-2.9
-2.9
-2.2
-2.3
-1.2 -2.5
-3
4 -1.2
-2
5
2009
-5 2010
2011
* defined as cyclically-adjusted balance net of one-off and temporary measures ** defined as the change in the structural primary budget balance (+ is fiscal consolidation)
2012
2013p
2014p
p) projection
Source: AMECO, Ministry of Public Finance
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
15
…as a result of the second largest fiscal consolidation effort in the EU … Cumulative change in the structural primary budget balance, 2009-2012 pp of GDP AT FR ES SK DE PT PL MT IE IT SI CZ LT HU EE LV RO GR
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.0 4.6 6.0 6.2 8.6
Source: AMECO, NBR calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
16
… which reflects the size of the fiscal gap at the crisis’ onset 10 8 RO
LV
6 EE LT HU IE
MT
4
CZ
SI
IT
2
PL PT ES
AT
SK
DE
FR
0
BG SE
UK
DK LU
BE NL
-2
FI
-4 -6
y = -0.7999x - 1.4474 R² = 0.6467
CY
-8 -10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Cummulative consolidation effort 2009-2012 (pp of GDP)*
GR
3
Structural balance at the onset of the crisis, 2008 (% of GDP) * def ined as the change in the primary structural budget balance in 2012 against 2008
Source: AMECO, NBR calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
17
A comparatively small fiscal consolidation effort is left in order to reach the medium-term structural fiscal balance objective pp of GDP LU CZ AT FI IT RO GR NL SI PL FR SK LT PT BE MT ES CY IE
0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.1 5.5 6.7 7.9
Source: AMECO, NBR calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
18
Banking System Developments
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
19
Deleveraging brought financial intermediation to its 2008 level … 50
percent of GDP loans to non-financial corporations a.o.
45
loans to households
38.5
foreign currency-denominated loans
40
40.0
39.9
40.1
38.4
35.6
lei-denominated loans
35 30
26.8 18.4 19.3
25 20
19.9 22.2
20.5 24.0
21.3 25.2
25.4
20.7 24.0
20.7 15.4
16.6
15 10
19.2
13.3
12.7
11.3 20.0
11.810.3
5 4.8 6.3
17.2 7.4
9.4
11.4
14.1
16.3
19.3
19.5 16.3
15.9
18.7 14.8
14.7
17.8 14.4
0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
*) loans to the private sector/GDP Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
20
… with the stock of loans to both households and companies posting negative real annual growth rates real annual percentage change*
real annual percentage change* 100
100
80
lei-denominated loans
households
total
total
80
foreign currency-denominated loans
non-financial corporations & financial corporations other than MFIs
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Jan.13
Jul.12
Jan.12
Jul.11
Jan.11
Jul.10
Jan.10
Jul.09
Jan.09
Jul.08
Jan.08
Jan.13
Jul.12
Jan.12
Jul.11
Jan.11
Jul.10
Jan.10
Jul.09
Jan.09
Jul.08
Jan.08
-20
*) based on CPI
21
The main focus of deleveraging seems to have been FX lending, which has been the driver of the decline observed in the LTD ratio, … Loan-to-Deposit Ratio* 250
percent
200
150
100
50 total
lei
foreign currency
Dec.05 Mar.06 Jun.06 Sep.06 Dec.06 Mar.07 Jun.07 Sep.07 Dec.07 Mar.08 Jun.08 Sep.08 Dec.08 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sep.09 Dec.09 Mar.10 Jun.10 Sep.10 Dec.10 Mar.11 Jun.11 Sep.11 Dec.11 Mar.12 Jun.12 Sep.12 Dec.12 Mar.13
0
* based on monetary survey data Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
22
… a welcome development given that Romania has the highest share of FX lending among CEECs with a floating exchange-rate regime percent
The share of the foreign currency component in loans to the private sector – April 2013 –
100 90 80 70 60 50 86.0
40
73.1
30
57.5
61.9
62.9
Hungary
Romania
Bulgaria
20 29.7 10 0
8.6 Czech Republic
Poland
foreign currency
Lithuania
Latvia
domestic currency
Source: central bank websites
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
23
Significant drop in FX consumer lending 100% 90%
the share of housing loans in total new loans in EUR
80% 70% 60%
59.0 the share of other loans in total new loans in EUR
50% 40% 30% 20%
8.4
10%
the share of consumer loans in total new loans in EUR
Jan.07 Mar.07 May.07 Jul.07 Sep.07 Nov.07 Jan.08 Mar.08 May.08 Jul.08 Sep.08 Nov.08 Jan.09 Mar.09 May.09 Jul.09 Sep.09 Nov.09 Jan.10 Mar.10 May.10 Jul.10 Sep.10 Nov.10 Jan.11 Mar.11 May.11 Jul.11 Sep.11 Nov.11 Jan.12 Mar.12 May.12 Jul.12 Sep.12 Nov.12 Jan.13 Mar.13
0%
Source: financial institutions' reports
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
24
Interbank money-market interest rates declined significantly, … 10 9
percent per annum monetary policy rate
1M ROBOR
3M ROBOR
effective interbank rate*
8 7 6 5 4 3
Jan.10 Feb.10 Mar.10 Apr.10 May.10 Jun.10 Jul.10 Aug.10 Sep.10 Oct.10 Nov.10 Dec.10 Jan.11 Feb.11 Mar.11 Apr.11 May.11 Jun.11 Jul.11 Aug.11 Sep.11 Oct.11 Nov.11 Dec.11 Jan.12 Feb.12 Mar.12 Apr.12 May.12 Jun.12 Jul.12 Aug.12 Sep.12 Oct.12 Nov.12 Dec.12 Jan.13 Feb.13 Mar.13 Apr.13 May.13
2
* Weighted average for all transactions, irrespective of maturity, with overnight transactions holding the largest share. Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
25
… this decline being passed through slowly into lending rates and more visibly into deposit rates % p.a.; monthly average
% p.a.; monthly average 18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4 NBR policy rate
2
new lei-denominated loans new lei-denominated time deposits
NBR policy rate new lei-denominated loans to households new lei-denominated loans to companies new lei-denominated time deposits to households new lei-denominated time deposits to companies
4 2 0
Jan.10 Mar.10 May.10 Jul.10 Sep.10 Nov.10 Jan.11 Mar.11 May.11 Jul.11 Sep.11 Nov.11 Jan.12 Mar.12 May.12 Jul.12 Sep.12 Nov.12 Jan.13 Mar.13 May.13
Jan.10 Mar.10 May.10 Jul.10 Sep.10 Nov.10 Jan.11 Mar.11 May.11 Jul.11 Sep.11 Nov.11 Jan.12 Mar.12 May.12 Jul.12 Sep.12 Nov.12 Jan.13 Mar.13 May.13
0
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
26
The peak in the NPL* ratio is yet to be reached percent in total loan portfolio
20 18.2
18 15.9
11.7
Dec.10
12
Sep.10
12.7 11.9
14.3
Dec.11
14
14.2
Sep.11
16
16.8
19.1
19.5
17.3
13.3
10.2
10
9.1 7.9
8 6 4
2.8
2 Apr.13
Mar.13
Dec.12
Sep.12
Jun.12
Mar.12
Jun.11
Mar.11
Jun.10
Mar.10
Dec.09
Dec.08
0
*) The NPLs represent gross exposure of loans and related interest overdue for more than 90 days and/or for which legal proceedings were initiated. The definition is in line with the IMF's recommendations and allows international comparisons.
Note: Starting January 1, 2012, Romanian credit institutions apply the IFRS for accounting purposes. Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
27
The banking system remains liquid and well-capitalised … 35
percent
3.5
30
solvency ratio
3.0
leverage ratio (tier 1 capital/total assets)
2.5
2.59
25
2.47
2.28
2.31 2.13
21.07
liquidity ratio (rhs)
20
2.0 20.64 14.67 15.02 14.88 14.19
18.12
15
13.78 13.76 1.38
1.35
1.37 1.37
13.43 1.34
14.87 14.63 14.66 14.67 14.94 15.03 1.36
1.44
1.39
1.41
1.42
1.5
1.46 1.47
10
1.0 8.93
9.18
8.63
5
7.32
8.13
7.55
8.11
7.96
7.79
7.50
8.07
8.60
8.42
8.30 8.02
8.20
8.25
0.5
Apr.13
Mar.13
Dec.12
Sep.12
Jun.12
Mar.12
Dec.11
Sep.11
Jun.11
Mar.11
Dec.10
Dec.09
Dec.08
Dec.07
Dec.06
Dec.05
0.0 Dec.04
0
Note: Starting January 1, 2012, Romanian credit institutions apply the IFRS for accounting purposes. Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
28
… and its profitability improved significantly during the last months lei million
4,401
percent 25
5,000 net profit (rhs)
4,000
ROE
2,533
15
2,206
20
3,000
ROA
1,000 0
-100
-192
-777
-766
-516
-5
-474
-235
0
713
489
131
95
382
5
440
2,000 816
10
-1,000 -2,000
Apr.13
-3,000
Mar.13
Sep.12
Jun.12
Mar.12
Dec.11
Sep.11
Jun.11
Mar.11
Dec.10
Sep.10
Jun.10
Mar.10
Dec.09
Dec.08
Dec.07
Dec.06
-15
Dec.12
-2,342
-10
Note: Starting January 1, 2012, Romanian credit institutions apply the IFRS for accounting purposes. Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
29
Financing Arrangement with the EU, IMF and other IFIs
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
30
Multilateral financing arrangement with the EU, IMF and other IFIs A) Public debt Drawn amount NBR
Approved amount IMF - SDR billions - EUR billions*
11.4 12.9
10.5 11.9
8.6 9.8
MPF 1.9 2.1
Undrawn tranche 0.9 1.0
* at the exchange rate on the arrangement approval date by the IMF Board (SDR 1 = EUR 1.1283)
EU (EUR billions) World Bank (IBRD) EUR billions
Approved amount 5.0
Drawn amount 5.0
Approved amount
Drawn amount
1.0
1.0
B) Private debt
EBRD, EIB, IFC (EUR billions)
Approved amount
Investment made**
1.0
1.3
** Source: EBRD – Annual Report 2012
On this particular segment of the arrangement, financing was provided directly to private companies. The authorities have not been involved and do not conduct any type of monitoring (contractual conditions, repayment schedule, etc.).
C) Total amounts approved/drawn under the arrangement (EUR bn.) Approved amount
Drawn amount
NBR MPF Public sector – total
10.5 8.4 18.9
9.5 8.4 17.9
Private sector
1.0
1.3
19.9
19.2
TOTAL
Source: National Bank of Romania, Ministry of Public Finance
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
31
Repayments under the financing arrangement with the EU, IMF and other IFIs A) REPAYMENTS MADE* (2009 - June 2013) I. PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS EUR billions IMF EU WB (IBRD) TOTAL
II. INTEREST AND COMMISSION PAYMENTS
PUBLIC SECTOR TOTAL
TOTAL TOTAL NBR MPF
3.63
3.10
0.53
3.63
3.10
0.53
PUBLIC SECTOR
EUR billions
TOTAL
IMF EU WB (IBRD) TOTAL
1.14 0.44 0.04 1.62
TOTAL NBR
TOTAL MPF
0.92
III. TOTAL EUR billions
0.22 0.44 0.04 0.70
IMF EU WB (IBRD) TOTAL
II. INTEREST AND COMMISSION PAYMENTS
III. TOTAL
0.92
PUBLIC SECTOR TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL NBR MPF 4.77 0.44 0.04 5.25
4.02
4.02
0.75 0.44 0.04 1.23
* repayments to the IMF have been converted into EUR at the exchange rate on the repayment date
B) FUTURE REPAYMENTS** I. PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS
EUR billions
PUBLIC SECTOR TOTAL
TOTAL TOTAL NBR
IMF EU WB (IBRD) TOTAL
8.62 5.00 1.00 14.62
1
6.90
6.90
2
EUR billions
PUBLIC SECTOR TOTAL
MPF
1.72 5.00 1.00 7.72
TOTAL NBR
IMF EU WB (IBRD) TOTAL
0.27 0.65 0.20 1.12
1
0.23
0.23
TOTAL 2
EUR billions
MPF
0.04 0.65 0.20 0.89
IMF EU WB (IBRD) TOTAL
PUBLIC SECTOR TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL 1 2 NBR MPF 8.90 5.65 1.20 15.75
7.14
7.14
1.76 5.65 1.20 8.61
** the amounts due to the IMF were converted into EUR at the exchange rate on 31 May 2013 (SDR 1 = EUR 1.1542) 1) NBR: Jul. 2013 - Dec. 2016; 2) MPF: Jul. 2013 - Dec. 2023 Notes: final repayment to the IMF - February 2016 final repayment to the EC - April 2019 final repayment to the WB - December 2023
Source: National Bank of Romania, Ministry of Public Finance
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
32