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Idea Transcript


After Rio+20

Sustainable development: summary and priorities for decision makers Report for the Planetworkshops’ Global Conference 2012 October 2012

the

planetworkshops

Neuilly-sur-Seine, October, 1th 2012

This report was prepared under the direction of Bettina Laville, partner in charge of the Sustainable Development department at Landwell & Associés. It was written by Bettina Laville and Laure Allibert, consultant. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the people who provided us with their expert opinions for this report. We are also very grateful for the contribution made by Florent Dubois, Syrine El Abed, Hélène Louboutin, Gabriel Miche de Malleray, consultants within the PwC Sustainable Development department headed by Thierry Raes and Sylvain Lambert, partners at PwC, and Rémi de la Selle, lawyer at Landwell & Associés.

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planetworkshops

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After Rio+20

Sustainable development: summary and priorities for decision makers

T

he last 40 years have seen the international community rally to the cause of the planet’s environmental issues. Extreme weather phenomena as well as climatic and environmental degradation – once seen as controversial issues concerning the future – have become tangible realities. Scientists, who have long been preaching to deaf ears, have formed groups of influence and are now afforded as much attention as heads of state. However, the arduous schedule of international negotiations, the proliferation of emergencies, the pressure of economic change and the vast array of international agencies often prevent world leaders from identifying priorities that address issues essential for day-to-day survival. Moreover, it is difficult for leaders to isolate the key issues amid the proliferation of sustainability

publications and scientific reports. All of these points were covered at length in our first report in 2011. Following its success, this second summary document attempts to rank priorities for decision makers by leveraging the Planetworkshops network and the expertise of PwC and Landwell partners. It is the result of careful year-by-year analysis of progress in understanding threats to sustainability and is intended to serve as a guide to ensure the longterm continuity of policy-making. It adopts an integrated approach by cross-referencing: • an analysis of the state of play and the global geopolitical and economic trends favouring progress towards greater sustainability: growth, conflicts, revolutions;

• a global and thematic summary of the major international sustainable development conferences; and • interviews with decision makers. We highlight the key trends of a world in often abrupt transition and show that the sheer breadth of sustainability does not preclude prioritising essential actions. This report will be presented at the Planetworkshops Global Conference, an international think-tank dedicated to promoting sustainable development and the development of new social models. The 2012 edition will also highlight the fact that, at a time when globalisation has become a reality and when actors from civil society are gaining influence, adopting a co-construction approach is key in achieving effective and shared solutions.

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International conference schedule

2012 International Year

of Sustainable

Energy for All

12-17 March

19-26 June

8-19 October

Marseille (France) • 6th World Water Forum.

Romania • 11th Conference of the Parties to the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands.

Hyderabad (India) • 11th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity and 1st Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Nagoya Protocol on ABS.

14-25 May Bonn (Germany) • Meetings of subsidiary bodies to the Convention on Climate Change. 20-22 June Rio (Brazil) • United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD/Rio+20).

2013 International

Year of Water

Cooperation

1-5 October Hyderabad (India) • 6th Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Doha (Qatar) • 18th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

3-15 March

6-10 May

1 June

• 16th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES).

• 6th Conference of the Parties to the Stockholm Convention (Persistent Organic Pollutants).

• 6th Conference of the Parties to the Rotterdam Convention (PIC). October

May Istanbul • 11th United Nations Forum on Forests.

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26 November-7 December

• 11th Conference of the Parties to the Basel Convention (waste).

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Schedule of the Rio+20 Conference 1

December 2009

May 2010

2011

November 2011

• Adoption of a UN resolution for the organisation of the Rio 2012 Conference at the highest political level possible. The resolution sets out the objectives and themes of Rio+20 and establishes an ad hoc secretariat for the preparation of the Conference.

• 1st Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting for Rio 2012. The meeting was focused on the assessment of the effective implementation of the texts of previous summits on the environment and sustainable development. The two main themes of the UNCSD were reviewed, namely the green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication and the institutional framework for sustainable development.

• During the year, numerous preparatory meetings were held within the framework of the United Nations Regional Economic Commissions.

• Deadline for submission to the Conference Secretariat of contributions addressing the objectives and themes of the Conference, which will together form the document providing the basis for negotiations. A consultation process was also open to actors from civil society.

January 2012

May 2012

16-19 June 2012

• Publication of “zero draft”, the negotiation document containing the contributions of heads of states and representatives of the nine major groups.

• The co-Chairs draft a compromise text as a basis for negotiations.

• “Dialogue Days”, thematic debates devoted to civil society (citizens, NGOs, businesses, local authorities, academics, trade unions, etc.).

March 2012 • A new 206-page Draft is issued.

13-15 June 2012 • Final stages of negotiations between negotiators from the 193 countries.

March 2011 • Second PrepCom meeting for Rio 2012. The notion of a “blue economy” covering the oceans was added. The process for drafting the UNCSD final declaration was adopted.

December  2011 • Intersessional Meeting for Rio 2012.

20-22 June 2012 • Rio+20 Conference attended by heads of state.

1. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable. International Organisation of la Francophonie.



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Content 8

Introduction

Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people

12 page

02

14

20 years after Rio, finally facing up to the day of reckoning

14

The first global effort to co-construct

19

Time for the possible or resignation to the impossible?

20

1.2. Reforms debated at Rio+20: what form of governance for what economy? 22

01 Levers by which economic stakeholders can ensure human life while conserving resources

1.1. From Rio to Rio+20: from utopia to realism

32 page

Minimal institutional reforms

22

Make growth greener or transform the economy?

24

1.3. Prospects after Rio+20: a note of clarity

27

Urbanisation, industrialisation and potential crises

28

Threshold effects in altering the planet’s key regulatory functions

30

2.1. Resource degradation is worsening, and threatening to reach threshold effects 34 Water – a scarce resource under threat

34

Pressure is increasing on natural ecosystems

35

The urgent need to reconcile energy demand with control of global warming 38

2.2. Technical and economic levers for the sustainable management of natural resources

44

Water as a factor of production: a step towards sustainable use

44

Changing production patterns: towards circular and functional economies

47

Energy-efficient production

51

2.3. Opting for a green, liberal or inclusive economy

56

Economic instruments: the markets

56

Greening growth or invention of a green economy?

59

6 | Sustainable development: summary and priorities for decision makers 

| 2012

To make a success of Rio+30: Better coconstruction

64 page

03 Conclusion

04 Appendices

05

3.1. Technological solutions are essential but insufficient

66

3.2. Adaptation must dictate policy in all areas

68

Climate change and water, food and human security

69

The human factor: adapting businesses and companies

73

3.3. Co-constructing new patterns of production and consumption

76

Decoupling economic growth from the consumption of resources

76

Changing uses: from consumerism to sustainable consumption

78

3.4. Co-constructing governance when resources are scarce

80

The need to co-construct water governance

80

Biodiversity, desertification and oceans: a few minor governance issues are still pending

83

Climate and energy governance: a snail-pace policy of “small steps”

85

3.5. Co-construction for seven billion?

90

What is meant by co-construction?

90

Conditions and methods of co-construction

92

Key figures and long-term goals

99

94 page

98 page

Planetary boundaries at stake due to global growth

104

Table tracking the Millennium Development Goals in 2011

105

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Introduction

“It is becoming urgent to deal with important things, but it is becoming increasingly important to deal with urgent things.” Jean Paul Delevoye, Chairman of France’s Conseil Economique Social et Environnemental

The Rio+20 conference, which was held in Brazil from 20 to 22 June 2012, was intended to be an important step in assessing the progress of the sustainable development concept and related action. It also aimed to help carry out reforms in two main areas: green growth in a context of poverty eradication and the reform of global sustainable development governance. However, the results of this conference failed to live up to expectations or the programmes announced, in a context of economic and financial crises. These crises, particularly the debt crisis, limit the capacity of governments to act, are starting to destabilise emerging powers, which are still fragile, promote the natural tendency of political leaders to procrastinate, and seem to conceal the severity of the major environmental and social crises that will affect the planet and its inhabitants in the medium to long term. This fuels the illusion that the lifestyles of rich countries – those that are still rich – can be maintained or even extended to the whole world, and that it will be possible to “return to normal” once governments have found the means to overcome today’s economic crisis. This is not the right approach. We obviously do not advocate abandoning the pursuit of prosperity, but we do think it will be necessary to break with a growth model based on the irrational use of resources. Ecosystems wait for no man, and the major changes affecting them are about to reach thresholds and tipping points from which it will be difficult to retreat. Sustainable solutions can only be based on available and renewable resources that are used in an “effective and simple” fashion by reducing waste and ensuring a better distribution of wealth and the shared integration of technical progress. The

8 |  | 2012

foundations of the 1992 Rio Conference are more topical than ever: current and future resource management must be aimed at meeting the needs of current generations without compromising those of future generations or the fundamental balance of the biosphere. Until recently, development policies based on growth and the accumulation of wealth were the dogma of economists and the standard of progress among nations. The trend towards more uniform lifestyles as a result of globalisation and IT developments can give the illusion that Western lifestyles will become universal. However, it is now obvious that the application of this development model on a planetary scale would require three to six times more resources than are effectively available. Such approaches have reached their environmental, social, economic and financial limits. Population growth and shifts in centres of demographic gravity are unleashing new forces that are compounding geopolitical tensions and pressure on resources. The risk of social, environmental and economic crises also increases with urbanisation and industrialisation. But we must strike a balance between protecting our biosphere and the well-being of humanity, safeguarding global common goods and ensuring a decent life for a population that totals seven billion people today and could swell to nine or ten billion by 2050. The Rio summit confirmed the importance of development, nowadays a subject of great discussion, notably through the fourth principle of the Rio Declaration: “In order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation from

it.” The environment and development cannot be separated or ranked; they must be reconciled. The adequate protection of ecosystems and global public goods is directly correlated to the ability of people to enjoy acceptable living conditions and meet their basic needs. As shown in successive reports on the topic, to date, the consumption of resources and the resulting environmental degradation have precluded the achievement of balanced development and well-being of the world’s seven billion people. Over the past 25 years, the size of the global economy has quadrupled, and hundreds of millions of people have benefited, albeit unevenly, from this growth. By contrast, 60% of the major ecological goods and services on which livelihoods depend have deteriorated or been used without concern for sustainability. Ecosystem degradation directly affects the supply of food for humans and the means of existence for the poor. It also has a broader impact spanning all economic activities, impeding their growth. So it is surprising, 20 years after Rio 92 and 40 years after the Stockholm conference, to see some people continue to pit ecology and economy against each other, although fortunately this is on the wane. Adequate protection of the natural environment is essential for the survival of populations and economic sectors that depend on these resources and the numerous supply, regulation and cultural services they provide. The main threats to nature are therefore the depletion of non-renewable resources, the spoiling of renewable resources by pollution and the alteration of key regulatory functions of the natural system. The use of renewable resources requires the existence of natural regulatory mechanisms that allow their production. However, as shown by Christian de Perthuis and Pierre Antoine Jouvet, “the deterioration of such mechanisms may in fact result in the depletion or disappearance of goods previously considered to be

unlimited: water, air, the stability of the climate, biodiversity, etc.” “Within this perspective, the problem is not so much the lack of availability of a given resource, but the cumulative imbalance introduced into the vital regulatory capacities of natural capital. Restoring these capacities is the challenge for green growth in the coming decades.”

2

The degradation of these resources and balances is detrimental to human and economic development. In addition, as we shown in this report, environmental damage increases inequality by exerting a negative impact on already disadvantaged people. This chapter examines some of the most glaring examples. Water is essential to human development. Threats to this resource raise questions about our ability to secure food and water security for a population of nine billion people. The World Bank believes that lack of water will be one of the main factors limiting economic development in coming years. Agricultural, industrial and domestic use of water must be balanced and water governance must be co-constructed between users, leaders and businesses. Climate change is key in the preservation of global public goods. It creates new physical constraints, challenges the North-South balance and calls for the development of new modes of governance. Prospective growth in energy demand will not make it easy to implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The energy transition will need to be made without neglecting either of the two aspects of the fight against climate change: emission mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at individuals, businesses and governments. Human activities have already heavily impacted natural resources and biodiversity. Population growth, economic development and global markets are drivers of significant changes that collectively compound pressure on resources, increasing demand for food, energy and raw

2. Jouvet P. A. and de Perthuis C. La croissance verte : de l’intention à la mise en oeuvre. Les Cahiers de la Chaire Economie du Climat, no. 15, June 2012.



PwC / The Planetworkshops | 9

materials, and resulting in the depletion of certain resources and changes in the regulatory functions of ecosystems. These issues require government and economic stakeholders to promote the coconstruction of new patterns of consumption and production, and to improve global governance. Principle 8 of the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development states that it is necessary to reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. New sustainable models enabling consumption of resources to be dissociated from economic growth must be co-constructed and implemented by government, economic and civil society stakeholders. The interdependence of these factors also requires us to change our perception of prosperity by focusing on simple living.

that is not imposed, but rather co-constructed. This is the subject of this report. After evaluating the pledges made at Rio+20 in respect of the smooth running of sustainable development, we will analyse how change in the climate function, exacerbated by exponential growth in energy demand, could, through the ecosystem’s three main functions (water, biodiversity and natural resources), determine either the continuation of economic and human development or their stagnation. Based on key global data, we will seek to highlight the levers identified for achieving more sustainable management.

The adaptation of our societies to the fact that we have reached the limits of the planet will require the optimal use of natural resources. As illustrated by a note issued by the International Organisation of la Francophonie, sobriety “must be the central value of the 21st century, in moral, personal, cultural, technological, economic and financial terms. It will also require simple living and sharing in the use of these resources. It will require that each resource – energy, mineral or derived from biological activity – be used in an optimal fashion in the service of all.” 3 Scarcity could engender other values than those which dominated the 19th and 20th century, without abandoning the progress these centuries gave, albeit unevenly, to humanity. It may form the basis of a new economic order respecting natural ecosystems and the human equilibrium,

3.

10 |  | 2012

International Organisation of la Francophonie. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable, 2012.

We must take into account the scarcity of resources and form a radically different model of progress for humanity, to co-construct, despite antipathies between countries, a new international economic order guided by a concern for the preservation of common capital, the production of essential goods and the adaptation to the various changes that lie ahead.



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Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people

01 12 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

“Humans do not like to have limits set for them, for, like all living beings, they seek expansion, and in so doing exploit the resources offered by their environment, at the risk of exhausting them. In addition, human selfawareness has developed to the point where each of us sees our existence as something absolute.” 4 This quote, which we highlighted at the end of the 2011 report, is even more pertinent following the Rio 2012 Summit.

The human species, which has shaped the planet according to its desires, needs to moderate its longing for the absolute. After the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972, the Brundtland Report (1987) ushered in the concept of sustainable development by reasserting the need to protect the environment while ensuring development. In 1992, the Rio Conference gave rise to Agenda 21 and the adoption of three major conventions on biological diversity (CBD), climate change (UNFCCC) and the fight against desertification (UNCCD). This plan of action places man and not nature at the centre of sustainable development and affirms the rights of states to manage resources within their space. However, states must use their resources and manage their development while minimising their negative externalities and impacts beyond their area of jurisdiction. The Rio Summit confirmed the importance of development, notably

through the fourth principle of the Rio Declaration: “In order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation from it.” Failure to recognise this principle led to unwelcome surprises, particularly at the summit in Copenhagen.5 The Rio+20 Conference, which was held in Brazil from 20 to 22 June 2012, may not have been the catastrophe some people feared, but it failed to live up to expectations or the programmes announced. It was held against a backdrop of social and economic crises that severely restricted leaders’ room for manoeuvre to the very short term, while the environmental crisis continues to deepen. Whether the latter proves to be manageable or fatal in the long run remains to be seen. These crises have failed to serve to spur much needed reforms.

4. Flahault F. Le crépuscule de Prométhée, 2009, p. 13. 5. 1992 Rio Declaration.



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1.1. From Rio to Rio+20: from utopia to realism

1.1.1. 20 years after Rio, finally facing up to the day of reckoning The international context of “Rio 1992” was very different from that prevailing 20 years later. It was described as a “small window on the particularly eventful end of the 20th century, especially in Europe, with the fall of the Berlin Wall”. And it was noted that “the Central and Eastern European countries had to be given seats at the international negotiation table in their capacity as new states. But as the changes were still underway and the renascent countries lacked a real diplomatic voice, they did not have the capacity to exert any opposition within Europe”. 6 Moreover, while the IMF flagged a slowdown in global growth in its 1992 report, the rise of the emerging countries was seen as a global asset, a new channel for cooperation with the poorest nations, and not as yet a threat to the members of the G8. In short, the world has changed, and the high-level report commissioned by the UN Secretary-General from Presidents Halonen and Zuma for Rio+20 was clear on this point:

“Today our planet and our world are experiencing the best of times, and the worst of times. The world is experiencing unprecedented prosperity, while the planet is under unprecedented stress. Inequality between the world’s rich and poor is growing, and more than a billion people still live in poverty. In many countries, there are rising waves of protest reflecting universal aspirations for a more prosperous, just and sustainable world.” 7 Despite several reports, including the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) report and the High-Level Panel report quoted above, the Rio+20 Conference failed to provide a full assessment of 20 years of environmental governance and development. The final declaration devotes a single sentence to what we feel should have been covered by at least one of the Summit’s preparatory sessions: “We recognize that the twenty years since the Earth Summit in 1992 have seen uneven progress, including in sustainable development and poverty eradication. We emphasize the need to make progress in implementing previous commitments. We also recognize the need to accelerate progress in closing development gaps between developed and developing countries, and to

6. B. LAVILLE « Rio+20 : un retour sur l’histoire ». Les dossiers de l’environnement de l’INRA no 33, June 2012. 7. Finnish President Tarja Halonen and South African President Jacob Zuma. The Panel’s final report, Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A Future Worth Choosing, paragraph 1.

14 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

seize and create opportunities to achieve sustainable development through economic growth and diversification, social development and environment protection” (paragraph 19 of the final declaration). “We acknowledge that since 1992 there have been areas of insufficient progress and setbacks in the integration of the three dimensions of sustainable development, aggravated by multiple financial, economic, food and energy crises, which have threatened the ability of all countries, in particular developing countries, to achieve sustainable development. In this regard, it is critical that we do not backtrack from our commitment to the outcome of the Earth Summit.” Finally, the declaration of heads of state implicitly links the post-Rio difficulties to today’s crises: “We also recognise that one of the current major challenges for all countries, particularly for developing countries, is the impact from the multiple crises affecting the world today” (paragraph 20 of the final declaration). Paragraph 22 provides a fairly satisfactory assessment of progress in respect of sustainable development in various countries: “We recognize examples of progress in sustainable development at regional, national, sub-national and local levels. We note that efforts to achieve sustainable development have been reflected in regional, national and subnational policies and plans, and that governments have strengthened their commitment to sustainable development since the adoption of Agenda 21 through legislation and institutions, and the development and implementation of international, regional and sub-regional agreements and commitments.” Ecological upheaval However, the successive reports on the issue referred to above, consistently highlight the unprecedented environmental changes currently underway: the surface of the Earth is

warming, the melting of snow and ice is gathering pace and the mean sea level is rising. 8 Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, mostly due to changes in land use and growing demand for fossil fuels. The consequences of climate change are exacerbating existing environmental problems. As for biodiversity, 2010 was supposed to be the year in which its erosion was stopped, but that goal was not achieved. Increasing demand for resources has led to the depletion and degradation of the environment, while access to these resources is also becoming increasingly scarce. 9 In addition, the marine environment is increasingly deteriorated and water resources are declining, with one third of the world’s population expected to be impacted by water scarcity in 2025. Certain developing countries are strongly affected by desertification and the deterioration of soil quality. Exposure to dangerous substances (pesticides, toxic waste) continues in the developing countries and the emerging economies, despite progress in implementing international agreements. Social and biophysical systems can reach a tipping point beyond which changes are extremely serious, rapid and potentially irreversible. The Summary for Decision Makers of the 2007 report of the United Nations Environment Programme 10 concluded that “ these unprecedented changes are due to human activities in an increasingly globalised, industrialised and interconnected world, driven by expanding flows of goods, services, capital, people, technologies, information, ideas and labour, even affecting isolated populations”. This represents a threat to “human development”. Poor populations remain the most vulnerable.

8. UNEP. Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4), Environment for Development. Summary for Decision Makers, 2007.. 9. Press release from the European Commission, Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 2011.. 10. UNEP. Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4), Environment for Development. Summary for Decision Makers, 2007.



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Sustainable human development “Sustainable human development is directly linked to the promotion of human dignity and respect for all human rights, economic, social, cultural, civil and political.” This extends Principle 1 of the Rio Declaration: “Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature.” The environment and development are inseparable; the adequate protection of ecosystems and global public goods is directly correlated to the ability of people to enjoy acceptable living conditions and meet their basic needs.

some countries due to HIV/AIDS. Deaths from malaria have fallen by 20% worldwide in ten years. Significant progress has been made in fighting infant mortality (reduced by more than a third), but sub-Saharan Africa accounts for an increasing proportion of such deaths. 12 Figure 1. Life expectancy by WHO region and income group Both sexes 2009

Minimum

36

47

Median

68

72

Maximum

79

83

African Region

51

54

Region of the Americas

71

76

South-East Asia Region

59

65

European Region

71

75

Eastern Mediterranean Region

61

66

Western Pacific Region

69

75

Low income

52

57

Lower middle income

63

68

Upper middle income

68

71

High income

76

80

Global

64

68

Ranges of country values

However, to date, the consumption of resources and environmental degradation have precluded the achievement of balanced development and well-being of the world’s seven billion people, as shown by the state of implementation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). In this, the 2000s, which saw the separation, within international institutions, of the treatment of poverty and the maintenance of the environmental balance, represented a step backward that has not been sufficiently emphasised. The eight MDGs were set out for the first time at the United Nations’ Millennium Summit in September 2000. They establish worldwide goals to reduce extreme poverty and hunger, improve health and education, empower women and ensure environmental sustainability by 2015. 11 Progress on the MDGs varies greatly from one region to another, with some lagging way behind and not a single MDG achieved in some of the weaker states.

1990

WHO region

Income group

WHO World Health Statistics 2012

Over the past 30 years, life expectancy has increased by 10% worldwide, from 62.5 years in 1980 to 68.9 years in 2008. However, there is still a great deal of inequality, particularly in Africa, where life expectancy has fallen in

11. See attached table tracking the MDGs in 2011. 12. G8 France 2011. New World, New Ideas, Deauville Accountability Report. G8 Commitments on Health and Food Security: State of Delivery and Results.

16 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

Statistics published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) clearly demonstrate that there are two times fewer wars today than 20 years ago (17 in 2009 compared with 35 in 1989). Intergovernmental conflicts and civil wars have declined since the 1970s, while internal conflicts and new forms of violence are on the rise. 13 Armed conflicts and violence uprooted more than four million people in 2011, inside or outside the borders of their country. Post-election violence in Côte d’Ivoire, the wretched situation in Somalia and the “Arab Spring” uprisings were all contributing factors. 14

emerging countries and the natural desire of these countries to reach Western living standards. 16 Figure 2. Rate of primary school enrolment Adjusted net enrolment rate in primary education,* 1999, 2004 and 2010 (Percentage) Sub-Saharan Africa 58 68 76 Western Asia 84 89 92 Southern Asia 77 89 93 Caucasus & Central Asia

Approximately 1.4 billion people still live in conditions of extreme poverty, but it is anticipated that the global poverty rate, which stood at 45% in 1990, will fall below 15% by 2015 (compared with a target of 23%). 15 This global trend chiefly reflects the rapid growth underway in East Asia. By contrast, sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind. The world has reached its target of halving the proportion of people without access to improved drinking water, but hunger and the persistence, if not increase, of inequalities remain a global challenge. Education is considered as one area in which the situation can be improved. Some of the poorest countries have experienced the greatest advances in the field of education, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (from 58% to 76% between 1999 and 2010). Gender equality has been achieved at school in two out of three countries. Wide gaps remain, however, in respect of women’s access to paid employment in at least half of the world’s regions.

94 94.5 93.9 Latin America & the Caribbean 94 95 95 South-Eastern Asia 92 94 95 Northern Africa 88 95 96 Eastern Asia 96 97.3 96.6 Developed regions 97 97 97 Developing regions 82 88 90 0

10

1999

20

30

40

2004

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010

* Defined as the number of pupils of the official school age for primary education enrolled either in primary or secondary school, expressed as a percentage of the total population in that age group. Note: Data for Oceania are not available.

However population growth and shifts in centres of demographic gravity are unleashing new forces. Geopolitical tensions and pressure on resources are compounded by the steady increase in the global population, rising living standards in

13. Iraq and Afghanistan do not fall within this category. 14. 2012 report on the MDGs. 15. 2012 report on the MDGs. 16. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre.



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The perspective of Yann Queinnec Unsurprisingly, human rights did not give rise to significant innovations at Rio+20. At best, they provided a backdrop to the draft resolution “The Future We Want”, present but somehow also absent from a long succession of calls to action by states and stakeholders. The chief value of the exercise was nevertheless to underscore, in the same way as the guiding principles on business and human rights adopted by the United Nations Human Rights Council (resolution 17/4 of 16 June 2011), a basic fact expressed in paragraph 43 of the resolution, which stresses that “broad public participation and access to information and judicial and administrative proceedings are essential to the promotion of sustainable development”, stating that “sustainable development requires the meaningful involvement and active participation of regional, national and sub-national legislatures and judiciaries (…)”. The subtext is the recognition that, in the present state of our knowledge and geopolitical relations, it is vain to hope to acquire global governance tools with the authority and means to address the issues. This new call on governments to take bold initiatives is less paradoxical than it seems. It encourages bottom-up regulation. This perspective is particularly telling in respect of the role potentially played by transnational corporations and the regulation of their activity. Good national law or jurisprudence could create valuable precedents, spreading to other legal systems, thereby helping to improve practices on a global scale. The judgement of the California Supreme Court in the case of Kasky v. Nike Inc., that of the Criminal Chamber of the French Supreme Court of 9 November 2010 in the so-called “ill-gotten gains” case and the Kiobal v. Royal Dutch Petroleum case, in which the U.S. Supreme Court is to rule on 1 October, are emblematic in this respect. Similarly, an obligation placed on the parent companies of large groups could constitute a powerful vector from the global to the local level. This ambition, based on a national initiative, would not be possible without the diverse contributions represented by international public standards including the ILO Tripartite Declaration, the guiding principles of the OECD, the UN Global Compact and guiding principles, ISO 26000 and the GRI, all of which in their own way seek to foster respect for human rights under globalisation. Thus, properly applied, the social and environmental reporting obligation recently reformed in France could become an effective tool in the prevention and reparation of human rights abuses committed by subsidiaries and partners along the entire value chain. The European Union has also just started down the same road. This blending of the global and local levels in national legislation is probably underestimated, and certainly underutilised by business stakeholders. Their constructive use will inform and sustain responsible and effective global governance.

Yann Queinnec, Associate Director of Orientation Durable

18 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

1.1.2. The first global effort to co-construct Government, corporate and public stakeholders As outlined in last year’s report, in 1992, NGOs acted as a spur for negotiations but not as stakeholders, which in many countries is the role they now occupy in the media and practically as an institution in their own right. Local authorities did not have a structured approach to sustainable development as they do today, under Agenda 21. They have also become full participants. There is even more truth to this in the wake of Rio+20, as the findings of the Conference assigned to each party their respective role. Paragraph 42 of the Summit’s final declaration reaffirms “the key role of all levels of government and legislative bodies in promoting sustainable development. We further acknowledge efforts and progress made at the local and sub-national levels, and recognize the important role that such authorities and communities can play in implementing sustainable development, including by engaging citizens and stakeholders and providing them with relevant information, as appropriate, on the three dimensions of sustainable development (...).” Paragraph 53 paints a more mitigated picture, as it acknowledges the current situation: “We note the valuable contributions that non-governmental organizations could and do make in promoting sustainable development through their wellestablished and diverse experience, expertise and capacity, especially in the area of analysis, sharing of information and knowledge, promotion of dialogue and support of implementation of sustainable development.” However, the recognition of NGOs will be more important in the UN institutions created as a result of Rio+20. The private sector is allocated a greater role via the green economy and technologies, and also as a fully-fledged partner, as described in paragraph 46: “We acknowledge that the implementation of sustainable development will depend on the active engagement of both the public and the private sectors. We recognize that the active participation of the



private sector can contribute to the achievement of sustainable development, including through the important tool of public-private partnerships. We support national regulatory and policy frameworks that enable business and industry to advance sustainable development initiatives, taking into account the importance of corporate social responsibility. We call on the private sector to engage in responsible business practices, such as those promoted by the United Nations Global Compact.” Beyond the drafting of the final declaration, the excitement generated by the 2012 Summit was a far cry from that of 1992, which, although it focused on a new issue (the Earth), was a classic UN conference. It was, however, dominated by the heads of state. By contrast, in 2012, the main leaders were absent and Brazil highjacked their debate on the final declaration. This time innovation, societal debates and decisive meetings were all orchestrated around peripheral events, organised, for example, by the local authorities, who held their own summit; companies, who attended the Corporate Sustainability Forum, initiated by the Global Compact, and the Business day on 19 June; lawyers who organised the World Congress on Justice, Governance and Law for Environmental Sustainability; and NGOs who organised the People’s Summit. The Peoples’ Summit Rio+20 also saw the rise of civil society, with four of the Summit’s eight days of proceedings devoted to it. But it was above all the Internet that really gave the conference a global impact at the grassroots level. This was the United Nations’ goal, as expressed by Rio+20 Secretary-General Sha Zukang in an exclusive interview with DESA News: “This will be an international conference like none other before. In addition, the Conference will be characterised by the size and the unprecedented and strong engagement of the Major Groups of society – the non-state actors whose role is fundamental in building the future we want. Furthermore, Rio+20 will differ from UNCED in 1992 in that Major Groups are now a part of the official proceedings, intervening and taking part in round tables alongside Member States and international organisations. At Rio 1992, Major Groups were largely confined to a global forum for civil society in Flamengo Park. The large gap between non-state actors and Member States has now been largely bridged.”

PwC / The Planetworkshops | 19

He added: “The Rio+20 Conference concerns every woman, man and child on this planet and also those yet to be born. This is your Conference, even if you are not physically present in Rio. Join the global conversation. Connect with the Conference through social media and our website. Make your opinions known to your official delegations and to your favourite Major Groups organisations. Launch initiatives of your own for sustainable development, no matter how big or small. Pitch in to build the sustainable future we all want.” A crisis-based summit Twenty years on, the cast of players, both at the level of states and major groups, has changed considerably. Despite awareness of the need to coconstruct change, the implementation of reforms required under the United Nations’ international agendas has been hampered by ecological, financial, economic, social and food crises. Since 2008, the successive monetary, economic and sovereign debt crises have locked political leaders into short-term management, sometimes even forcing them to decide policy on a day-by-day basis in response to market fluctuations. A Belgian collective, in the run-up to Rio+20, gave a fairly accurate description of the context in which it was held: “The beginning of the 21st century has been characterised by a succession of global crises. The biggest financial crisis since the Second World War triggered an economic, social and also moral crisis that is most rife in Europe. The generalisation of a model of unsustainable development for the planet and the overexploitation of natural resources have led to anthropogenic climate change on a scale never before seen in geological history. Widespread austerity policies introduced in Europe have caused social pain, and have thus far been economically inefficient. Similarly, European stimulus plans

put together in response to the 2008 financial crisis have generally sought to revive the economic system on the same ineffective bases as in the past. Numerous warning signals show that the current economic system is at death’s door. Our financial burden is equalled only by our ecological debts. Social inequalities are steadily increasing, while hundreds of millions of people remain stuck in poverty and extreme poverty, in both the North and the South. It is unrealistic to see the resolution of today’s systemic crisis in a deepening of the measures that caused it. Rather, the nature and extent of the crisis require a paradigm shift. Today’s prosperity has no meaning if it mortgages that of tomorrow, and if it is only a reality for a minority of the global population.” Yet the G20 Summit held in Mexico on 18-19 June, at the same time as Rio+20, acknowledged that “since we last met, the global recovery has continued to face a number of challenges. (…) The global economy remains vulnerable, with a negative impact on the everyday lives of people all over the world, affecting jobs, trade, development, and the environment.” But the Summit declaration added, setting out the two timeframes necessary for decision-making, namely that devoted to dealing with the crisis and that focused on a consideration of long-term issues, that “the longterm development and prosperity of current and future generations requires us to look beyond the immediate economic crisis. We acknowledge the importance of finding ways in which economic growth, environmental protection and social inclusion can complement and reinforce each other.” Lastly, at the international level, the concept of sustainable development can help maintain a long-term vision in a world where the crisis sets the emergency tempo.

1.1.3. Time for the possible or resignation to the impossible? But can we dissociate short-term action from long-term vision? While the preparation and implementation of sustainable solutions normally require consensus and careful reflection, emergencies and political imperatives do not afford the luxury of time. As stated in last year’s report, decision makers called on to respond to emergency situations, especially during environmental disasters or financial upheavals, prefer ever-quicker fixes for the short term. Paradoxically, this exposes them to the charge of neglecting future generations, and eschewing long-term measures compatible with the rhythms of nature. Christine Lagarde believes that “establishing global governance faces the challenge [of] the ‘desynchronisation of time’. Time is very short in politics, where the time horizon is based on the next elections. […] Conversely, institutional time is much longer, stretched out and diametrically opposed to market time, which is much shorter […]. Global governance must respond to two requirements. It must be representative and effective. It needs to be invented.” 17 The Davos 2009 report had previously explained that geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty of the financial markets could lead companies and governments to neglect certain less immediate risks such as climate change, even if “inaction regarding long-term risks could reduce global capacity to manage future challenges”. That said, the time horizon of any action is essential to its efficiency, as stated in the conclusion to last year’s report. Thus, we see the emergence of a decision-making horizon that may be seen as “the time frame of the possible”, a

17. Extracts from Vittori J-M. Pour une gouvernance mondiale. (Autrement, 2010). Le Monde économie, 30 June 2011.

20 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

concept that does not pass muster since it denotes a lack of fast-response capacity relative to the devastating speed of stock market instruments and extreme phenomena. Neither is it efficient enough, in view of scientific and economic projections, to ensure the well-being of future generations. 18 It is nevertheless vital that this “time frame of the possible”, with capacity for action constrained by crises, reconcile environment and development, the protection of global common goods and the well-being of a population that totals seven billion people today and could swell to nine or ten billion by 2050. As stated several months ago in an article in the Vraiment Durable journal, “the way in which we adapt to the various changes we are forced to make, both of an environmental nature and an economic and “geolocal” nature, must alter our perception of time, for we must act (...) quickly, although the speed is not the same. (…) The speed of our destruction is not comparable to the speed at which we protect ourselves and rebuild. The latter is a reasonable response to an urgent situation while the former is simply overwhelming.” 19 The Rio+20 Summit did not escape this contradiction, but nevertheless sought to set deadlines for aspects on which the United Nations has a measure of control, namely its own institutional calendar: specific deadlines for new institutions and the sustainable development goals. A little better than Copenhagen…

Sustainable development has undoubtedly “suffered from a failure of political will. It is difficult to argue against the principle of sustainable development, but there are few incentives to put it into practice when our policies, politics and institutions disproportionately reward the short term. In other words, the policy dividend is longterm, often intergenerational, but the political challenge is often immediate” (paragraph 10 of the “Resilient people, resilient planet” report). There is a second reason why sustainable development has not yet been put into practice, and it is one that arouses impassioned debate: “The concept of sustainable development has not yet been incorporated into the mainstream national and international economic policy debate. Most economic decision makers still regard sustainable development as extraneous to their core responsibilities for macroeconomic management and other branches of economic policy. (…) For too long, economists, social activists and environmental scientists have simply talked past each other. The time has come to unify the disciplines, to develop a common language for sustainable development that transcends the warring camps; in other words, to bring the sustainable development paradigm into mainstream economics. That way, politicians and policymakers will find it much harder to ignore” (paragraphs 11 and 12 of the “Resilient people, resilient planet” report). This masterful assessment should have been required reading for the heads of state at Rio+20...

Again, the true outcome of Rio+20 was best summarised in the report entitled “Resilient people, resilient planet” 20, which contrasted the successful spread of the concept of sustainable development with the lack of a sustained political will to impose its implementation: the Brundtland Report was right when it was issued and is still right today. The problem is that, 25 years down the road, sustainability is a widely accepted concept, but one that is not put into practice in everyday life. The authors of the report sought to identify the reasons for this and to identify measures that could be taken to remedy the situation, giving two explanations:

18. Extract from PwC report “Sustainable development: summary and priorities for decision makers”, 2011. 19. Extract from Urgence immobile. Laville B. Vraiment durable journal, no. 1, p. 74. 20. Finnish President Tarja Halonen and South African President Jacob Zuma. The Panel’s final report, Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A Future Worth Choosing, paragraph 1.



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Two main themes were identified when, with its resolution 64/236 of 24 December 2009, the General Assembly of the United Nations launched the preparatory process of the Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) in Rio de Janeiro in June 2012: the institutional framework for sustainable development and the green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication. Later, the president of the host country, Brazil, emphasised the primacy of the question of poverty.

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1.2. Reforms debated at Rio+20: what form of governance for what economy? 1.2.1. Minimal institutional reforms Global governance of global development is challenging because in order to ensure shared management of the world’s resources, regulatory mechanisms must be put in place by governments. Yet, each government is tempted to adopt a “free rider” approach or manage the other important crises on their agenda: economic or social crises that give the false impression that environmental issues do not require immediate solutions. The challenge of making concrete progress in the mechanisms for access to the sharing of the benefits of biodiversity and the distribution of efforts to fight global warming are compelling examples.21 The European Commission states that “compared to global economic structures, international environmental governance is weak. This is due to institutional fragmentation, a lack of accountability for implementing agreed policies, the lack of a strong and authoritative voice within

the global governance system, as well as a lack of human and financial resources. In addition, the new roles and responsibilities of emerging economies are not sufficiently defined.” 22 This observation on weaknesses in global sustainable development governance was widely accepted but opinions differed as to the reforms needed to remedy the situation. Some argued for a reinforcement of the existing UNEP, others for the creation of a WEO (World Environment Organisation) or UNEO (United Nations Environment Organisation). They included the EU, at the initiative of France, and roughly one hundred African countries that appeared to support this position. The emerging countries and the United States, however, took a dim view of the creation of what could have been the environmental counterpart of the WTO, ushering in binding regulations. The various forces clashed at Rio+20, and a reinforcement of the United Nations Environment Programme was ultimately adopted as the solution for the global

21. PwC « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 22. Press release from the European Commission. Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 201.

22 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

governance of the environment. The EU thereby obtained a reinforcement and enhancement of UNEP’s status, and recognition of its role as a global environmental authority. The number of participating countries will increase to 153, compared with 20 today.

replace the United Nations’ Commission on Sustainable Development (UNCSD). This will strengthen the advisory role and participation of representatives of civil society (accredited to the United Nations) at the international level, helping make better use of their expertise.

In respect of global sustainable development governance, it was decided to establish a highlevel intergovernmental political forum to

The other theme addressed at the conference was the green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication.

Mark Halle’s perspective “Rio +20, the summit in Copenhagen and the last World Trade Organisation meetings were all a failure. One of the reasons for this is that, at these kinds of summits, the rich OECD countries can no longer effectively impose their will on the developing countries, which have even more problems in holding to their common positions. The second reason is that, international negotiation is perceived, especially by the developing countries, as having been long on promise and short on delivery: basic inequity still exists in the international system. Impatience with the failure to address the equity agenda has been steadily growing and it has now reached the point where it is simply blocking all progress at the international level. If we are to move forward, we will have to begin, finally, to address the glaring gaps between rich and poor countries, and the rich and poor within countries. And since we do not seem ready to do that, we must put a stop to the massive waste of money represented by events like the Rio conference. If our governments are not prepared to move towards sustainability, it is better that our voting populations know this, rather than calling a failure a success. So the first conclusion we must reach is that we should call a moratorium on all global multilateral negotiations on the environment and begin to



address the thousands of unfulfilled promises and commitments we have made. To do so would be to build a momentum of success that would once again instil hope and belief among our populations. The second conclusion is that our intergovernmental structures are tired, lack vision and courage, and are increasingly left behind by the natural momentum of creativity and innovation in our societies. We should put our money and effort into organizations and processes that are not exclusively government-based. If national governments have found it difficult to progress, this is not true of sub-national jurisdictions, which are making commitments to the green economy and to climate change that are truly inspiring. The same is true of the private sector, where there is more advanced strategic thinking than is obvious in inter-governmental dialogue. And, as always, civil society in its diversity and flexibility represents an untapped force which, if harnessed, would wield incredible power.” Mark Hallé, Vice-President, International, International Institute for Sustainable Development Includes extracts from the article “Life After Rio: A commentary by Mark Halle, IISD”, June 2012.

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1.2.2. Make growth greener or transform the economy?

This inevitably fuelled suspicions in the southern countries, which are often sceptical of OECD reports.

Launched by the United Nations, the question of the green economy (combining development, the fight against poverty and respect for the environment) reflected the notion of a vital transition towards new patterns of production and consumption.

The question of the green economy thus created a dividing line between the North and the South. Europe notably saw it as a possible response to the economic crisis, while the developing countries feared that it would lead to the adoption of environmental standards that could block their access to markets in the North. It is true that the developed countries have embraced the concept. They include France, which entitled its most recent sustainable development strategy “Towards a green, sustainable and equitable economy”, Canada, and, most recently, Japan, whose Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, has declared that “green innovation will be a major pillar in the revitalisation of Japan. I would like to see a drastic policy package compiled as a green growth strategy by this summer.”

But the concept was not clearly defined and was the subject of conflicting interpretations. For some, including most of the developed countries, the transition to the green economy meant modifying the prevailing economic system to make it less destructive. Others, including a number of NGOs and experts, saw it as embodying a profound transformation. In fact, it was the OECD that seized on the question of green growth as a source of salvation for its members in the context of the crisis, clearly stating that: “The crisis convinced many countries that a different kind of economic growth is needed. In response, many governments are putting in place measures aimed at a green recovery. Together with innovation, going green can be a long-term driver for economic growth, through, for example, investing in renewable energy and improved efficiency in the use of energy and materials,” adding, with little reference to the achievements of 20 years of sustainable development, that “by analysing economic and environmental policies together, by looking at ways to spur eco-innovation and by addressing other key issues related to a transition to a greener economy such as jobs and skills, investment, taxation, trade and development, the OECD can show the way to make a cleaner low-carbon economy compatible with growth. ” 23

Yet many developing countries have also set out their own national green growth strategies. They include Vietnam. Inspired by the example of South Korea, Vietnam’s incumbent political leaders are relying on the green economy, which is clearly seen as a development model with the potential to correct the excesses of the prevailing production system. The country recently adopted a Green Economy Strategy for the years to 2050, with three objectives: to reduce CO2 emissions and develop a low-carbon economy, to promote clean technologies and to encourage people’s efforts to adopt more sustainable consumption patterns. Morocco also has a green growth plan, and is in the process of making it the guiding principle of its sustainable development strategy, following the lead of South Africa, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Gabon and Kenya.

23. Presentation of reports devoted to green growth on the OECD website.

24 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

On the heels of very lively discussions, the Rio+20 Declaration states that the achievement of green growth should be aimed at contributing to poverty eradication and promoting sustainable economic growth, improving social integration and the well-being of humanity, and at creating opportunities for employment and decent work for all, while maintaining the proper functioning of global ecosystems. The implementation of policies aimed at promoting green growth is up to each country, allowing it to ensure that it adopts the approach best suited to its sustainable development plans, strategies and priorities. Describing it as “massive exercise in brainwashing”, some South American leaders are clearly opposed to what they see as an “imperial offensive against the sovereignty of peoples and scientific progress.” Thus, on the Summit’s opening day, Argentine Under-Secretary of Environment and Sustainable Development, Silvia Revora, stated that the green carbon tax policies promoted by some countries, mostly in Europe, violate the sovereignty of developing countries and hamper their development. “We say ‘no’ to the imposition of a green economy and ‘yes’ to sovereign development, in which we control our resources on the basis of our reality.” On the closing day of the Summit, in a speech to the 50,000 delegates, Bolivian President Evo Morales denounced the green economy as a colonialist and oligarchic concept: “The green economy is a new form of colonialism aimed at overpowering anti-capitalist governments and nations. It was designed to colonise and privatise biodiversity in order to put it at the service of a few.

(...) Environmentalism is an imperial strategy that quantifies every river, every lake and every natural resource in order to convert them into money. (...) By measuring the utility of nature in money, it colonises nature. The environmentalism of capitalism is predatory colonialism. (...) The green economy transforms the natural resources of many into private goods in the service of a few.”

The green economy has accordingly become an ideological issue within the United Nations and radical NGOs, but has emerged as a means of transforming the existing economy, which carries the germs of pollution and crises, into a fairer one, on the condition that it is more virtuous.

Assessment of the Rio+20 Conference 24 Sucess

Failures

Sustainable Development

Institutional reform

Recognition of the interaction between the different pillars of sustainable development, mirrored to an unprecedented extent in the text.

No agreement was reached on the creation of a WEO (World Environment Organisation) or UNEO (United Nations Environment Organisation).

Recognition of the green and fair economy as the work programme of the international community. Recognition of the role of civil society “Dialogue days”, involving thematic debates devoted to civil society, were organised from 16 to 19 June, but were unfortunately poorly managed by Brazil. This resulted in three recommendations per theme (ten) being selected and passed on to heads of state. Civil society is to abandon its observer status in favour of a more active role. Creation of a high-level forum giving civil society an institutional role and allowing access to information. Sustainable development objectives to replace the MDGs as of 2015, with a deadline, a process and a method.

Innovative financing The proposal to establish innovative financing – such as the tax on financial transactions proposed by France – did not have a “tangible outcome”. Water and sanitation The final text calls for universal access, but no date is given.

Corporate commitments 200 corporate commitments were validated in various fields ranging from carbon neutrality to frameworks governing action on water, biodiversity and the social enterprise. UN Environment Programme Approval of the reinforcement and enhancement of its status and recognition of its role as a global environmental authority. Social Recognition of social factors, including social protection floors, the importance of decent work and the priority given to youth employment. Oceans The high seas, located outside exclusive economic zones, are not governed by the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The conference gave a mandate to complete the work within two years with the requirement to reach a decision.

24.Dourlens S. La version finale de la déclaration de Rio+20 fait l’objet d’un accord. AEDD, 19 June 2012. .



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Reactions from decision makers and stakeholders “The text presented this morning to the heads of state and government is not ideal. It does not include everything we wanted, but it was drafted in a very ambitious context, and also in a delicate balance of power and under difficult circumstances. It reflects our innovative ideas and our misgivings. It represents a spur and a new beginning. ” Jean Pierre Thébault, French ambassador for the environment, head of the French delegation to Rio

“The result once again leaves an after taste of missed opportunity – an agreement that does not put the planet on the path of sustainable development. The urgency to act has not changed, however.” “The good news is that sustainable development is a plant that has taken root and will grow despite weak political leadership. We saw leaders move forward in Rio, but not during the negotiations. Ultimately, we must act everywhere, among citizens, in villages, cities, countries, large and small businesses, as well as through civil society and NGOs.” Jim Leape, Director General of WWF International

The challenge is to define new rules for “sharing” the sustainable, responsible use of global public goods. The word “sharing” is key: we are breaking away from the principle of ownership. It is a different political approach that is needed, from the bottom up. And this doesn’t only mean changing our focus from global to local. Gilles Berhault, President of the Comité 21 and Club France Rio+20

The text “ignores the real challenges of globalisation, the depletion of natural resources, and the evolution of the global economy (...). The language remains incantatory when it does not represent a setback compared with the existing texts.” French RIO+20 collective

“We are not totally satisfied with the text. It is not consistent with what we felt was necessary to eradicate poverty and move towards an economic transition. But we avoided allowing Rio+20 to turn itself into Rio-20.” “I understand the frustration of civil society, but we made progress nevertheless. It is not a matter of a mountain becoming a molehill.” Pascal Canfin, French Minister for Development

The final document is “a very good document, a vision on which we can build our dreams.” “The speeches are over, now the work begins.” “The path is long and arduous, the clock is ticking, and the future is in our hands.” Ban Ki-Moon, SecretaryGeneral of the UN.

26 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

“The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, also known as Rio+20, ended on an ambivalent note with regard to policy. However it did allow civil society to assert its determining role in changes to global governance on the subject of the environment. At the heart of this, companies took part in debates, providing a reminder of the place they hold in working towards a greener economy.” Suez Environnement

“No one can win a battle alone against the world. Either we win together or we lose together.” “This is not an opposition between the North and the South, it is a global cause, a vital issue for the entire world.” “To overcome the crisis, we need to give greater priority to the environment and development. We will fight against the crisis with all regulatory means.” “Sustainable development is not a constraint. It is a lever. It is not a tool to protect the most favoured against others, but a tool for promoting a conception of humanity. That is why I see development, the environment and the fight against poverty as key priorities for my term of office.” François Hollande, President of the French Republic

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1.3. Prospects after Rio+20: a note of clarity The “Resilient people, resilient planet” report affirmed that “we must grasp the dimensions of the challenge. We must recognise that the drivers of that challenge include unsustainable lifestyles, production and consumption patterns and the impact of population growth. As the global population grows from seven billion to almost nine billion by 2040, and the number of middle-class consumers increases by three billion over the next 20 years, the demand for resources will rise exponentially. By 2030, the world will need at least 50% more food, 45% more energy and 30% more water — all at a time when environmental boundaries are throwing up new limits to supply. This is true not least for climate change, which affects all aspects of human and planetary health.”



It added that “the current global development model is unsustainable. We can no longer assume that our collective actions will not trigger tipping points as environmental thresholds are breached, risking irreversible damage to both ecosystems and human communities.” But it presented sustainable development as needing a profound renewal before it can become an operational concept capable of meeting the challenge of the survival of an inhabitable planet: “At the same time, such thresholds should not be used to impose arbitrary growth ceilings on developing countries seeking to lift their people out of poverty. Indeed, if we fail to resolve the sustainable development dilemma, we run the risk of condemning up to 3 billion members of our human family to a life of endemic poverty. Neither of these outcomes is acceptable, and we must find a new way forward.”

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Population growth will reinforce the difficulty in balancing environmental protection and human development. The UN also warns that even a slight slackening off in the decrease in fertility rates would have drastic repercussions. For example, were the fertility rate to remain one half-point above the average expected rate in the run-up to 2050, the world population would shoot past the 9 billion mark to 10.5 billion. However, the fertility rate of the least developed countries remains at an average of 4.29. A dozen countries, particularly in Africa, have yet to begin the

demographic transition process. 25 One out of seven people on Earth is African, and this proportion is expected to increase to one in four by 2050. The risk of social, environmental and economic crises will increase with urbanisation, as well as threshold effects being reached in the degradation of the Earth’s key regulatory functions.

1.3.1. Urbanisation, industrialisation and potential crises Urban population exceeded rural population for the first time in 2007. Over three billion people now live in cities or urban areas. The 100 largest cities in the world account for 60% of global GDP. 26 Approximately half the global population lives in urban areas, and this proportion is expected to reach 60% by 2030. These urban metropolises exacerbate social inequality. Over one billion people currently live in slums and this figure is set to reach 1.5 billion in ten years. Figure 3. Urban population by main geographic area 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

Source : United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020 2025

Asia

Latin America, Caribbean

Africa

Europe

2030

2035

2040 2045 2050

Northern America Oceania

25. ALLIX G. « Le Risque de surpopulation mondiale reste réel ». Le Monde, 15 February 2011. 26. Comité 21 Prospective Committee. Temps de crise financière, économique, écologique et sociale : enjeux, contradictions, opportunités, 2011.

28 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

Figure 4. Urban agglomerations with more than 10 million inhabitants in 1975 and in 2005, and projections for 2015 (population in millions)

1975 Tokyo

2005 26,6 Tokyo

2015 (projection) 35,2 Tokyo

35,5

New York 15,9 Mexico

19,4 Bombay

21,9

Mexico

18,7 Mexico City

21,6

São Paulo

18,3 São Paulo

20,5

Bombay

18,2 New York

19,9

New Delhi

15,0 New Delhi

18,6

Shanghai

14,5 Shanghai

17,2

Calcutta

14,3 Calcutta

17,0

Jakarta

13,2 Dhaka

16,8

Buenos Aires

12,6 Jakarta

16,8

Dhaka

12,4 Lagos

16,1

Los Angeles

12,3 Karachi

15,2

Karachi

11,7 Buenos Aires

13,4

10,7 New York

Rio de Janeiro 11,5 Cairo

13,1

Osaka-Kobe

11,3 Los Angeles

13,1

Cairo

11,1 Manila

12,9

Lagos

10,9 Beijing

12,8

Beijing

10,8 Rio de Janeiro 12,8

Manil

10,7 Osaka-Kobe

11,3

Moscow

10,7 Istanbul

11,2

Moscow

11,0

Guangzhou

10,4

(J. Véron, Population & Societies, no. 435, INED, June 2007)

Source: United Nations [5]

For François Grünewald, growing urbanisation throughout the world intensifies the risk of crises in two specific situations. The first is in “megacities located in high-risk areas of tectonic movement, such as certain cities in Japan, Central America, the West Coast of the United States, areas with seismic activity around the Mediterranean and the Arakan Basin in Southeast Asia.”

The second high-risk situation is to be found in overpopulated outlying urban areas, “slums on the slopes of Tegucigalpa and in Haiti, makeshift housing in flood zones in South Asia and in Nairobi. These urban concentrations with no public services or basic town planning, where people live off informal and often illegal economic activities, generally offer cheap labour, present public health risks (cholera) and are social time bombs.” 27 These factors of vulnerability are exacerbated by climate change. Some of the world’s biggest cities are located along the coast, making them more vulnerable to rising sea levels, storms, etc. Growing industrialisation also aggravates the risk of crises. For example, in his hot spot theory, François Grünewald identifies an “Aral Sea” or “Chernobyl-type technological” syndrome caused by human intervention: actions that are either “inappropriate” (irrigation systems that deplete a water resource) or cause technological disasters that can sterilise or make entire territories inaccessible. These phenomena cause dramatic shortterm damage to societies (from an economic, ecological and medical perspective) and can give rise to explosive political and social results over time. 28 Pollution also creates major health risks, particularly during the major industrial disasters of recent years, such as Chernobyl, Bhopal, Amoco Cadiz, Erika, AZF, Minamata, BP (Deepwater

Horizon) and Ajka (toxic mud reaching the Danube). The nuclear accident in Fukushima is also an illustration of this syndrome. This dramatic event showed that it is still possible to manage a dramatic human and environmental emergency in a rich country, even in the context of a global financial crisis, but it also damaged Japan’s reputation as a result of the government’s failures and cover-ups in managing the situation. Today, we are faced with other serious damage to our environment, perhaps less spectacular, but with equally dramatic effects. It would be unfortunate, in respect of efficiency and for financial reasons, to wait for these issues to turn into real crises before dealing with them. In other words, those who claim that disaster management is not the issue of the century have been proven wrong on several occasions – even in just the first ten years of this century. The precautionary approach set out in the Rio Declaration, and upheld by the courts on several occasions, is more valid now than ever before.

27. GRUNEWALD F. « Hot Spot ! Comment mieux réfléchir aux risques à venir ». Diplomatie. December 2007/January 2008. 28. GRUNEWALD F. « Hot Spot ! Comment mieux réfléchir aux risques à venir ». Diplomatie. December 2007/January 2008.



PwC / The Planetworkshops | 29

1.3.2. Threshold effects in altering the planet’s key regulatory functions This need to “treat emergencies urgently” is even truer in view of the fact that “the currently observed changes to the Earth System are unprecedented in human history. Efforts to slow the rate or extent of change (...) have not succeeded in reversing adverse environmental changes. (...) As human pressures on the Earth System accelerate, several critical global, regional and local thresholds are close or have been exceeded”. 29 However, as shown by Christian de Perthuis 30, the impact of current global growth on natural capital could cause the depletion of nonrenewable resources, the spoiling of renewable resources by pollution and the alteration of the key regulatory functions of the natural system. Exploiting resources beyond a certain threshold alters the ability of the biosphere to provide this function: “We have gone from the vision of a physical limit resulting from the destruction of a stock of non-renewable resources, to the alteration of one of the natural system’s major regulatory capacities.” The Stockholm Resilience Centre has identified nine natural boundaries of the natural system that prevailing growth patterns are liable to encounter. They were defined in relation to risk of irreversibility induced by the growth of human activities in the main control functions of natural capital (see Appendix, Planetary boundaries at stake due to global growth). Putting aside the depletion of finite resources, the use of renewable resources requires the existence of natural regulatory mechanisms that allow their production. However, “the deterioration of such mechanisms may in fact result in the depletion or disappearance of goods previously considered to be unlimited: water, air, the stability of the climate, biodiversity, etc.” “Within this perspective, the problem is not so much the lack of availability of a given resource, but the cumulative imbalance introduced into the vital regulatory capacities of natural capital. Restoring these capacities is the challenge for green growth in the coming decades.” 31

One possibility that has emerged is the financial valuation of natural capital and ecosystem services. If the Rio+20 summit was disappointing, we should remember that the same debates caused a stir in 1992 concerning what was hoped to have been recognized as common proprieties being controlled by national sovereignties. An historical perspective is necessary to judge the summit. The Environment was not absent at this Rio+20 summit, it was the idea of Nature that was fading away. There was certainly continuity with Rio 92 which wanted to place “humanity at the heart of sustainable development”, but a complete break with the Stockholm Earth Submit in 1972 took place. This Summit recognized that putting a price on nature is not the only way to protect it whereas the spirit of the Stockholm summit was to say that Nature has no price and must be protected in reason of this “un-inestimable character”. The concept “from local to global” is reversed. Cities want to take over the States. It is the same for companies that were much more present at the summit, not for green washing but to seek both greater stability in standards and a new international economic model. Of course, Brazil wanted to show that an emerging country know how to run a summit, contrary to northern countries in Copenhagen in 2009. On the same time, the USA wanted as in Rio 92, that the negotiations did not go too far… We experienced a paradox: the preparation of the summit started with the wish to let major groups speak, representing civil society in majority. The summit ended with the complete “seizure” of head of states influence by Brazil that “award” the summit without all delegations having read the final declaration. Head of states’ presence was not even useful to move forward to the stocking points or to give more capacity to the text. This change out toward a weak state governance is rather symbolic as well as the emerging countries demonstration of force. Whereas in 1992, States were at the core of the summit, today they were just present and what they said fall on empty ears. We may wonder if it was wise to call a summit of such importance without a legal text to approve

29. UNEP. Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5), Environment for Development. Summary for Decision Makers, 2012. 30. Jouvet P. A. and de Perthuis C. La croissance verte : de l’intention à la mise en oeuvre. Les Cahiers de la Chaire Economie du Climat, no. 15, June 2012. 31. Jouvet P. A. and de Perthuis C. La croissance verte : de l’intention à la mise en oeuvre. Les Cahiers de la Chaire Economie du Climat, no. 15, June 2012.

30 | Sustainable development and green growth for seven billion people | 2012

and financial commitment to be made. Rio+20 is a summit without legal or financial engagements. We could just wait for such an unavoidable flood of words even if the worst was avoided. We think that the report “Resilient people, resilient planet” would have been a must better basic text for Rio+20 and we will refer to it a lot for the effective future of measures that validate the final declaration.

Dennis Meadows’ perspective

“We are currently entering a period of arrested growth. There are signs of this everywhere. Climate change, the dislocation of the eurozone, the shortage of petrol and food problems are all symptoms of a system coming to a halt. It is crucial to understand that these are not problems, but symptoms. If you have cancer, you may have a headache or fever, but you do not think that by taking aspirin to get rid of your fever will make the cancer disappear. People are treating these issues as if they were problems that we only need to resolve to make things right. But in reality, if you solve the problem in one place, the pressure will move elsewhere. Change will not come from technology, but rather through social and cultural change. We do not solve most of our problems. We have not solved the problem of war, nor have we solved the problem of demography. But the problem will resolve itself because you cannot have infinite physical growth on a finite planet. Crises and disasters are nature’s way of stopping growth. We could have stopped it earlier, but we did not do so; now it is up to nature to do it.” Dennis Meadows, Physician, author of the Meadows Report in 1972, honorary member of the Club of Rome. Interview carried out by Terraeco, 29 May 2012.



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Levers by which economic stakeholders can ensure human life while conserving resources

02 32 | Levers by which economic stakeholders can ensure human life while conserving resources | 2012

Economic stakeholders are becoming increasingly aware of the considerable risks posed to humanity and the planet by the degradation and exploitation of resources, which are critical in allowing the planet’s population of 7 billion to continue or start progressing, in the absence of a new, more rational and more equitable economic model. Forty years ago, principles 3 and 5 of the Stockholm Declaration had already flagged this problem, warning that: “The capacity of the earth to produce vital renewable resources must be maintained and, wherever practicable, restored or improved (...). The non-renewable resources of the earth must be employed in such a way as to guard against the danger of their future exhaustion and to ensure that benefits from such employment are shared by all mankind.” Principle 2 of the Rio Declaration was less clear on this issue, national claims on resources having been the subject of lively confrontations, and no longer refers to “resources of the earth”, i.e., common goods shared by humanity as a whole: “States have, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, the sovereign right to exploit their own resources pursuant to their own environmental and developmental policies, and the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction.” The right to exploit resources clearly takes precedence over the duty to preserve the environment.

Rio 2012 summarises this in its fourth principle, recognising the need to promote “integrated and sustainable management of natural resources and ecosystems that supports inter alia economic, social and human development while facilitating ecosystem conservation, regeneration and restoration and resilience in the face of new and emerging challenges.” But sovereignty over resources, i.e., the right to exploit them without effective international control, is reaffirmed in the section on the green economy: “We affirm that green economy policies in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication should: (…) (b) respect each country’s national sovereignty over its natural resources taking into account its national circumstances, objectives, responsibilities, priorities and policy space with regard to the three dimensions of sustainable development.” Here too, one can only regret that the strong injunctions contained in the report “Resilient People, Resilient Planet” were not reiterated, given the compelling picture they painted of the urgency of finding new ways to produce and consume the planet’s resources: “Governments and international organisations should work to create a new green revolution (...) for the twenty-first century that aims to at least double productivity while drastically reducing resource use and avoiding further loss of biodiversity, topsoil loss and water depletion and contamination, including through the scaling-up of

investment in agricultural research and development, to ensure that cutting-edge research is rapidly moved from laboratory to field. (...) Governments should work towards agreement on global principles for sustainable and responsible land and water investment deals, including ongoing efforts to promote responsible agricultural investment (RAI), with particular emphasis on protecting the rights and livelihoods of poor people who depend on these basic resources, while ensuring environmental sustainability.” 32 The dual challenge of addressing the needs of an increasingly large global population that is rightly demanding a more equitable distribution of wealth and ensuring the survival of our ecosystems, which also provide a substantial proportion of humanity’s livelihoods, could have been treated with greater clarity at Rio. This is why we have chosen to cite a few examples, mirroring Jeremy Rifkin in his book “The Third Industrial Revolution”, which situates the end of the second industrial revolution based on oil and fossil fuels, at a time when the exploitation of new extractive industries is no longer sufficient to satisfy the needs of nearly 9 billion human beings. “We’ve had five waves of biological extinction on this little planet in four hundred fifty million years of life. Every time we had a wipe out it took ten million years to recover the biodiversity we lost.”

32. Finnish President Tarja Halonen and South African President Jacob Zuma. The Panel’s final report. Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A Future Worth Choosing, paragraph 1..



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The dual challenge of meeting the needs of a growing world population, which calls for a more equitable distribution of wealth, and ensuring the survival of our ecosystems must be met without further degrading our water resources, which have become scarce and threatened, and without increasing pressures on biodiversity. This must be achieved in parallel with the vital reconciliation between energy demand and the fight against global warming.

||

2.1. Resource degradation is worsening, and threatening to reach threshold effects

2.1.1. Water – a scarce resource under threat Water, which is synonymous with life for both humans and the flora and fauna that inhabit our planet, cannot be seen solely as an economic commodity. It is as much a social and environmental commodity, subject to physical pressure, but also to issues concerning the economy as well as water, food and planetary security, which fuel battles for water.

Status of water resources The current status of water resources and their accessibility is a major source of concern and forecasts are even more worrying. Access to fresh water is becoming one of the most serious natural resource problems facing humanity. Only 2.75% of the water on Earth is fresh water and only 1% of that is accessible. Today, 85% of the world’s population is concentrated in the most arid half of the planet and 31 countries – mainly in Africa and the Middle East – are facing either water stress or water scarcity. Water withdrawals have tripled worldwide over the last 50 years; aquifers, watersheds and wetlands are increasingly coming under threat, and are often poorly monitored and managed. The pace of the decline in global groundwater stocks more than doubled between 1960 and 2000. 33 In addition, areas with significant water deficits are those where resources and reserves are overexploited. 34

33. UNEP. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication – A Synthesis for Policy Makers, 2011. 34. UNDP. Human Development Report, 2006.

34 | Levers by which economic stakeholders can ensure human life while conserving resources | 2012

Figure 5. Availability of water resources on Earth 35

Freshwater 2.75%

Other* 0.2% Surface water 0.3%

Streams and rivers 1.3%

Underground water 24.5%

Saltwater 97.25%

Total water

Lakes 98.7% Ice and glaciers 74.9%

Freshwater

Surface water

* Other: Water present in the atmosphere and biosphere, and as moisture within the soil.

There is significant disparity between rich and developing countries in terms of per capita daily water consumption which represents 350 litres in the United States, 200 litres in Europe and 10-20 litres in Africa.36 The scientific consensus is that climate change will exacerbate water-related challenges in years to come. These changes are already disrupting rainfall patterns by feeding ever more powerful storms. This leads to droughts of increasing gravity and frequency, especially in Africa. Total water consumption is expected to increase by approximately 40% by 2020, resulting in mounting pressure on aquatic ecosystems. A total of 3 billion people could face water stress by 2025. A number of different factors, both quantitative and qualitative, affect water resources Developing countries have seen rapid population growth and urbanisation. Going forward, the expansion of piped water services and increased household water use will accelerate demand for adequate sanitation. 37

Demand for fresh water has increased not just on account of population growth but also in response to industrial development, intensification of irrigated agriculture, massive urbanisation and higher living standards. The level of water wastage is also extremely high. Worldwide, only 55% of water withdrawals are actually used. The remaining 45% is either wasted through drainage, leakage and evaporation, or returned to the natural environment. In addition to these quantitative factors, water resources are affected by qualitative factors. For example, one example is the fact that fresh water supplies for human use are declining due to increasing levels of pollution in fresh water sources. In certain countries, various types of waste such as untreated or partially treated wastewater and toxic industrial waste are discharged directly into lakes and rivers. More than 80% of wastewater in developing countries currently flows into the natural environment with no treatment, polluting rivers, lakes and coastal areas. In addition, eutrophication of inland and coastal waters occasionally kills fish on a massive scale, thereby threatening human health and livelihoods.38 These qualitative and quantitative factors affect the availability and quality of water resources and shape the economic activities dependent on these resources.

2.1.2. Pressure is increasing on natural ecosystems Human activities have already heavily impacted natural resources and biodiversity. Population and economic growth will inevitably increase the existing pressure on land and marine ecosystems, both by changing the planet’s essential regulatory functions and by decreasing biodiversity.

35. PwC, « L’eau : enjeux, dynamiques, solutions ». March 2012. 36. French water partnership press package. Water, an ongoing challenge for the 21st century! The stances adopted by the French water stakeholders at the 5th World Water Forum in Istanbul from 16-22 March 2009. 37. IEG World Bank. An evaluation of World Bank Support, 1997-2007, Water and Development. 38. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre.



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Ecosystems disrupted by human activities Christian de Perthuis believes that “the deterioration of such natural regulation services may in fact result in the depletion or disappearance of goods previously considered to be unlimited: water, air, the stability of the climate, biodiversity, etc.” “Within this perspective, the problem is not so much the lack of availability of a given resource, but the cumulative imbalance introduced into the vital regulatory capacities of natural capital”. 39 As we noted in the introduction, the system’s regulatory functions have indeed been highly disturbed: the surface of the Earth is warming, the sea level is rising and CO2 emissions continue to increase. Water resources are increasingly depleted and polluted. Drought and soil aridity Areas affected by drought and soil aridity doubled between 1970 and 2000. They are home to a third of the world’s population and cover 40% of land. In addition, decisions on land use fail to take into account the biophysical limits of productivity, which have been further reduced by climate change. 40 Land degradation is a global issue, not confined to arid and semi-arid areas, and as such calls for a global solution. It is also vital that agricultural, climate, water and other policies 41 take into account the fact that 11% of the natural areas still existing in 2000 will have disappeared by 2050, and that nearly 40% of land will be used for intensive agriculture. Deforestation Forests, which are a source of livelihood for millions of people, especially in tropical regions, perform numerous functions that are essential for the terrestrial ecosystem, such as protecting soil, water and biodiversity, and regenerating oxygen. Although the decline in the area of temperate forest was reversed between 1990 and 2005, deforestation in the tropics continued at an average annual rate of 130,000 square kilometres during the same period. Africa accounts for half

of global deforestation, while South-East Asia has lost half of its forests in the space of 20 years. 42 There are many causes of deforestation, including the expansion of cultivated areas, slash-and-burn agriculture, lumbering, urban sprawl and firewood collection. The impact of the destruction of forests will not only be catastrophic for their inhabitants and for biodiversity, it will also lead to the gradual disappearance of moisture flows, breathing spaces and the related “carbon sink” effects, which will have a broader impact on the movement of water in the atmosphere and on global warming. 43 Emissions from tropical deforestation and the degradation of forests and peatlands are estimated to account for 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 28% of CO2 emissions. 44 The issue of forest conservation is also closely linked to development issues. As highlighted by a report of the International Organisation of la Francophonie, the vital belt formed by the Amazon, the Congo Basin and the SouthWest Asian rainforest, which covers 15% of the planet’s surface and contains 35% of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere, is also home to 90% of biodiversity and feeds 90% of the 1.2 billion people living in extreme poverty. 45 Deforestation also has social impacts: its advance increases the burden on women and children when collecting firewood. Lack of fuel also has effects on health (the quantity and quality of available food decreases), and can cause migration flows to urban areas. The text of the final declaration of Rio emphasises the social, economic and environmental benefits of forests for people and in the achievement and management of sustainable development. Governments pledged support for existing frameworks as a “non-legally binding instrument on all types of forests” promoting sustainable forest management, reforestation, afforestation, and all efforts to slow down, reverse and reduce deforestation and forest degradation.

39. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 40. UNEP. Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4): Environment for Development. Summary for Decision Makers, 2012. 41. Press release from the European Commission. Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 2011. 42. Grüneweld F. Hot Spot ! Comment mieux réfléchir aux risques à venir. Diplomatie, December 2007/January 2008. 43. Grüneweld F. Hot Spot ! Comment mieux réfléchir aux risques à venir. Diplomatie, December 2007/January 2008. 44. Press release from the European Commission. Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 2011. 45. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable. International Organisation of la Francophonie.

36 | Levers by which economic stakeholders can ensure human life while conserving resources | 2012

Oceans and marine ecosystems Just as land resources are under significant pressure, the world’s oceans are also under threat. Oceans are the primary regulator of the global climate and an important sink for CO2 emissions. According to a June 2011 report published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), the extent of the anthropogenic impact on the oceans is unprecedented in the last 55 million years. The three main factors responsible are anoxia (oxygen depletion), warming and acidification. These factors are the same as those experienced in previous major biological crises, but their effects are now gathering pace.

In addition, more than 60% of coral reefs could disappear by 2030 due to coral bleaching. Coral reefs and mangroves protect coastal areas against flooding and reduce the risk of natural disasters; their destruction exposes such areas to the consequences of erosion and tsunamis. The authors of the report predict that marine ecosystems will suffer a largescale collapse by 2020 or 2050 if current trends persist.46

scenarios containing significant baseline variations. There is still a lot to be learnt about land and marine biodiversity. While 1.75 million species have been described, estimates of the total number of living species range from 3.6 million to more than 100 million. The potential of the sea is still largely unknown, as only 274,000 marine species have been identified out of the estimated 10 million to 100 million in existence.

Changes in these ecosystems are also contributing to biodiversity loss.

The main threats to biodiversity 47 are population growth, which increases the need for land and food; the expansion of road, rail and electricity networks, which breaks up natural habitats and scares away some species; and the overexploitation of natural resources, pollution, ecological disasters and climate change.

Biodiversity loss: several models, but only one conclusion Biodiversity loss is a phenomenon in which the same alarming conclusion is reached using

Figure 6. Mean species abundance: cause of losses in the years to 2030 48

Loss to agriculture

Loss to climate

Loss to nitrogen

Remaining diversity

Loss to forestry

Loss to fragmentation

Loss to infrastructure

% 100

90

80

70

60

0-50

2000

2030 O ECD

2000

2030 BRI C

2000

2030 ROW

2000

2030 WO R L D

46. IEG World Bank. An evaluation of World Bank Support, 1997-2007, Water and Development. 47. Coquart J. Biodiversité : les racines du mal. Le Journal du CNRS. 48. OECD. Environmental Outlook to 2030.



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Current biodiversity loss models contain considerable uncertainties (between 10 and 100 times the natural extinction rate), but they unanimously predict a faster rate of extinction (estimated at between 100 and 1,000 times higher in 2050). 49 Each year, between 17,000 and 100,000 species become extinct, and one-fifth of all living species could vanish by 2030. The IUCN based its 2011 “Red List” of endangered species (801 extinct, 3,879 critically endangered, 5,689 endangered and 10,002 vulnerable) on the state of conservation of the 61,914 species for which it had descriptions. The only two wellmonitored groups are birds and mammals. 50 The FAO estimates that 28% of the world’s fish stocks are overexploited or depleted, and that a further 52% are at or close to their maximum sustainable limits. Only 20% of stocks are moderately exploited or underexploited. Annual catches of freshwater and marine fish have sharply declined, mainly due to persistent overfishing. Freshwater fish are also affected by the degradation of habitats and thermal regimes, stemming from climate change and dams. 51 Adequate protection of the natural environment against overexploitation and pollution is essential for the survival of populations and economic sectors that depend on these resources and the numerous supply, regulation and cultural services they provide for their livelihood or development. New models of consumption and production must be co-constructed and implemented by government, economic and civil society stakeholders. These models should also make it possible to reconcile energy demand with control of global warming.

2.1.3. The urgent need to reconcile energy demand with control of global warming With the demographic and economic power of emerging countries, globalisation and declining oil and gas reserves, prospective growth in energy demand will not make it easy to implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The energy transition will need to be made without neglecting either of the two aspects of the fight against climate change: emission mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at individuals, businesses and governments. The climate and economic trends described above call into question the possibility of reconciling the fight against global warming with the need to ensure energy supplies, despite the crisis, and highlight the urgent need to do so. Meeting this challenge is essential for both sustainable development and poverty eradication. Will we be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate change? The Earth is getting warmer… Global climate data are derived from studies carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 52 In its fourth report, the IPCC expresses a high degree of confidence in two areas: that the planet will warm by between 1.8°C and 4°C by the end of the century, and that the origins of global warming are anthropogenic. 53 Global warming is measured by: • increases in average temperatures. Temperatures have risen throughout the world, although the most significant increases have been felt in the highest latitudes of the Northern hemisphere; and • the concentration of the hottest temperatures in the most recent years: 2000-2010 was the warmest decade ever recorded on the surface of the Earth, at the ocean surface and across all continents. 54

49. Biodiversity in the 21st century. Interview with Thierry Oderboff. Sciences du Sud no. 57, December 2010. 50. Brachet. Biodiversité : l’UICN actualise sa liste rouge mondiale des espèces menacées pour 2011. 51. Summary for Policymakers. A report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 52. Set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and UNEP, the IPCC’s assessments of the causes and consequences of climate change and potential action plans constitute a benchmark for both public and private players. 53. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 54. Since the year in which temperatures at the Earth’s surface were first recorded.

38 | Levers by which economic stakeholders can ensure human life while conserving resources | 2012

Figure 7. Trends in temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, 1850-2010

0 = 1961–1990 global mean, °C 0.6

CO2 part per million

0.4

380

400

360

0.2 0.0

JMA

HADGL NOAA

340

NASA

320

-0.2

300

-0.4

280

-0.6 1850

260 1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

Sources: Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (HADGL), NOAA NCDC, NASA GISS, Japan Meteorological Agency

…leading to ecosystem disruption Global warming also disrupts ecosystems. The IPCC estimates that “at continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation and heat waves.” 55 Christian de Perthuis sees the climate, among the essential regulatory functions of ecosystems, as “the system whose degradation is liable to have the greatest impact on other natural regulatory systems, namely biodiversity, the water cycle, and land use.” 56 The entire balance of this regulatory function is threatened by human activities, and the ensuing disturbances are about to reach a threshold effect beyond which mitigation will take much longer and be much more expensive, if not impossible, to achieve. Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase… In its 2007 report, the IPCC showed that limiting the increase in mean temperatures to 2°C would require cutting emissions of greenhouse gases by between “50% and 85% by 2050 compared with 2000” at the global level, with a “peak before 2020 and substantial decline thereafter”. The report

2010

1850

1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

2010

Sources: Scripps Institute of Oceanography, NOAA

consequently recommended that industrialised countries reduce their emissions by between 25% and 40% by 2020 compared with 1990 and that developing and emerging countries achieve a “substantial deviation in the trend”. Responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions is split between the industrialised, emerging and developing countries. In 2004, the countries listed in Annex 1 of the UNFCCC 57– which represented 20% of the world’s population – produced 57% of gross world product based on purchasing power parity but accounted for 46% of greenhouse gas emissions.58 However, it is in the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) that CO2 emissions are rising most rapidly and emissions per capita are the highest. China is now the leading CO2 emitter, ahead of the United States. 59 Between 1990 and 2005, emissions fell by 1% in industrialised countries, but grew by more than 60% in developing countries. This trend is expected to increase over the years. As shown in Figure 8, while China is now the biggest CO2 emitter in relation to its GDP, followed by the United States, America remains by far the biggest emitter in respect of per capita emissions (Figure 9), followed by the 27 EU member states.

55. Summary for Policymakers. A report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fourth Assessment Report, 2007. 56. Jouvet P. A. and de Perthuis C. La croissance verte : de l’intention à la mise en oeuvre. Les Cahiers de la Chaire Economie du Climat, 15 June 2012. 57. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 58. Summary for Decision Makers of the Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4): Environment for Development, UNEP, 2007. 59. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre.



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t CO2 / million $ 2000 ppp1

Figure 8. Trends in temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, 1850-2010 2 200 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 1970

Chine États-Unis Monde Afrique UE à 27

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2008

France

Source : Agence internationale de l’énergie, octobre 2010.

t CO2 / habitant

Figure 9. Per-capita CO2 emissions by area 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970

États-Unis UE à 27 France Chine Monde 1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2008

Autre

Source : Agence internationale de l’énergie, octobre 2010.

More drastic projections from the IPCC Despite these warnings and numerous international conferences, the IEA 60 estimates that “the world has continued to move – and even at an accelerated pace – in the wrong direction. From 2000 to 2007, the annual growth rate of emissions jumped to 3%.” 61 For the first time, a member of the German government clearly acknowledged, on 16 July 2012 at a preparatory conference for the Doha summit, that it will not be possible to limit global warming to 2°C.62 So any progress made since Copenhagen has been in acknowledging our powerlessness. This realisation must now give way to active realism. The fifth report of the IPCC is set to be published between September 2013 and 2014, when a summary of its work will be available. The French climate community has completed

past and future climate projections on a global scale. By 2100, in the worst-case scenario, temperatures could rise by 3.5°C and 5°C. The most optimistic scenario predicts an increase of 2°C. It is important to recognise that, as already stressed in the 2007 report, the scenario used for the first decades of the 21st century has little bearing on global warming, which is relatively uniform except in the Arctic regions (melting sea ice). However, in the long term, i.e., by 2100, continental warming will be more intense than ocean warming and will therefore have a greater impact in the Northern hemisphere. A courageous climate policy? The 2014 report should highlight and confirm the rise in sea levels, according to the different scenarios. It will also adopt a new approach by differentiating between short-term projections, which can be used in policy-makers’ strategies,

60. Presentation of the document. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050, 8 July 2010. 61. Brachet A. Energie : le monde continue de se diriger dans la mauvaise direction à un rythme accéléré. AEDD, 8 July 2011. 62. Scheven F. and Kreutzmann S. Merkel Calls for New Kyoto Agreement. The Wall Street Journal, 16 July 2012.

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and long-term forecasts. The difficulty for political leaders is obvious: they must make decisions quickly because they will have a major impact on the end of the century. However, they will not see any tangible results during their tenure or even that of their immediate successors. Meanwhile, energy shortages and energy supply disruptions cause immediate political imbalance. As Cynthia Fleury says, sustainable development is therefore one of the new areas where political courage needs to be exercised. The fight against climate change will need to be conducted in conjunction with an increase in energy supply and an improvement in energy efficiency, which are essential to economic growth and improving access to energy for the poorest populations.

The three largest final energy-consuming sectors are industry (31%), residential and commercial construction 66 (31%) and transport (27%). This energy consumption structure represents an average taken over clearly contrasting situations, even in industrialised countries. For example, in the United States, industry accounts for only 21% of final energy consumption, compared with 33% in Japan, 55% in China and 34% in Russia. Figure 10. Energy consumption by sector

Industry

31

Residential and tertiary

31

Transport

27

Agriculture

11

How can we meet the demand for energy? With the increasing clout of emerging countries, globalisation and declining oil and gas reserves, prospective growth in energy demand will not make it easy to implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And we will need to combine the energy transition with an improvement in access to energy, which is key to sustainable human development. Review of energy production and needs Access to energy is fundamental for economic development, and is a major challenge for our societies today. Governments have to define their energy policy taking into account their energy reserves and their objectives (security of energy supply, pricing, environmental protection) as well as the importance of fighting global warming. The world’s energy resources are not evenly distributed across the planet. As regards fossil fuels, 62% of oil reserves are located in the Middle East. Coal – which generates more greenhouse gas emissions than any other energy resource – is present on all continents. Most gas reserves are located in Russia and the Middle East, a great number of countries also have uranium reserves. Fossil fuel production is also very concentrated. The top five oil countries producers 63 account for 43% of global output. This figure is 63% for the top five gas producers.64 65

In terms of primary energy sources (figure 19), oil is still the single largest fuel (32%), followed by coal (28%) and natural gas (21%). Fossil fuels therefore dominate this category, accounting for 80% of primary energy sources. In constant dollars, the price of oil has risen constantly over the last decade, but still remains lower than after the oil shocks. The proportion of biomass, which is still mainly used through traditional methods, is slightly higher than primary sources of electricity (hydropower and nuclear power). However, for 66 countries in the world, hydraulic energy is used to produce more than 50% of their electrical power, and in 24 countries it accounts for at least 90%. 67 The contribution made by primary sources of heat (geothermal and thermal solar energy) is very low. 68

63. Listed in order: Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia, Iran and Mexico. 64. Russia, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands. 65. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 66. Energy consumption in buildings, e.g., heating, air conditioning, electrical appliances, etc. 67. Press release from the European Commission. Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 2011. 68. IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 – Year 2004.



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Figure 11. Breakdown of primary energy sources

Other (geothermal, solar, wind power, etc.) 1% Oil

32%

Coal

28%

Natural gas

21%

Nuclear energy Biofuels and waste Hydroelectricity

6% 10% 2%

Moreover, the geographic breakdown of primary energy demand is changing. Today Asia-Pacific accounts for more than 30% of global energy consumption, compared with less than 20% in the early 1970s. Correspondingly, the relative weight of the developed regions has decreased (from 28% to 20% in the US and 19% to 15% in the EU). The energy transition While global energy consumption has doubled over the last 30 years, economic growth, particularly in emerging countries, and increasing transport needs will lead to an increase in energy demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global energy demand will increase at an annual rate of 1.5% until 2030. By then, it will have doubled compared with 2008. But the increase in energy demand will be uneven across the world’s regions. While consumption is set to double in America, it will be weak in Europe and Japan. By contrast, energy demand is set to be high in developing countries, which are set to account for more than 90% of additional demand, even though their overall consumption will remain below that of the OECD countries. The various existing energy sources are broadly expected to satisfy the projected growth of around 50% in global demand in the years to 2030. Fossil sources are expected to cover roughly 80% of needs by 2040, oil 30%, coal 29% and gas 22%. Oil is set to remain the primary energy source, with two-thirds of the projected increase

in demand coming from transport. While forecasts for peak oil vary, most studies place it between 2020 and 2040. Known reserves of unconventional oil (e.g., oil shale and oil sands), of which only one-fifth is recoverable, are on a par with those of conventional oil. Despite the very heavy environmental impact of the extraction of unconventional oil, the majors are investing heavily in exploration and production (+16% in 2011, double the rate of the previous five years). 69 Natural gas, proven reserves of which should be sufficient to ensure supply for an estimated 70 years, is also poised to see a significant increase in production and use (global demand is projected to increase by 90% in the years to 2030). 70 As easily accessible oil and gas struggle to meet global demand, the share of coal in the final energy mix is likely to increase, especially with growth in electricity demand (coal covers 40% of global power generation). North America, India and China have large reserves of coal. Coal could emerge as an alternative to gas and nuclear power as long as large-scale technological developments (clean coal, carbon capture and storage of CO2, synthetic fuels, etc.) make it possible to limit its environmental impact. 71 Nuclear energy, which emits only a small amount of C02 and for which fuel reserves are guaranteed for 60 years, could see relatively sizeable growth. But it may not become a substitute source of energy because of the risks it entails (accidents at Fukushima, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl), its cost (investment in plants and waste treatment) and its unsuitability as a source of energy for transport, which is projected to account for two thirds of the global increase in the coming 20 years. Achieving an energy transition that covers the increase in energy demand while at the same time contributing to the fight against climate change is a major challenge. It will involve the development of renewable energy, as we shall see in the next section, but will also need to factor in the goal of improving access to energy.

69. Bezat J.M. En 2011, l’investissement est au plus haut dans l’exploration production de pétrole. Le Monde, 17 June 2011. 70. French Ministry of Defence. Horizons stratégiques 2012. 71. French Ministry of Defence. Horizons stratégiques 2012.

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Expanding access to energy and improving air quality Access to energy services is a prerequisite for economic and social development and poverty eradication, especially in terms of the satisfaction of basic needs (cooking, lighting, hot water, heating). Yet over 1.4 billion people in developing countries do not have access to electricity, and 2.7 billion depend on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. 72

Ban Ki-moon, UN-Energy has been set up within the framework of the “Sustainable Energy for All” programme, with three main goals: universal access to modern energy services, a 40% reduction in global energy intensity, and a 30% increase in the use of renewable energies across the world. In the final declaration of Rio+20, governments reaffirmed the role of energy in development and as a means of ensuring sustainable development and poverty eradication.

The “energy poor” suffer the health consequences of the inefficient combustion of solid fuels in poorly ventilated buildings, as well as the economic consequences of insufficient productivity. It is estimated that more than 2 million people worldwide die prematurely every year from indoor and outdoor air pollution. Severe indoor air pollution occurs in many poor communities when biomass and coal are used for cooking and heating in enclosed spaces without adequate ventilation. Outdoor air pollution arises from many sources, including industrial processes, motor vehicles, energy generation, and wildfires.

There are three ways in which the three-pronged climate and energy challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2050, while at the same time ensuring increased production and improved access to energy, can be met: by stopping deforestation, promoting simple living and efficiency, and rolling out lowcarbon energy sources. 73 These initiatives are the solution to better resource management.

The UN General Assembly has declared 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for All”. Under the impetus of UN Secretary General

72. Press release from the European Commission. Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 2011.. 73. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre.



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The Earth provides us with unique ecosystems that we take for granted and which form the basis of human existence and life on our planet. Yet damage to our environment is accelerating and threatening to reach threshold effects, as we have just noted. Our economy encourages people to consume more than the planet can bear. All resources are threatened, some more than others, but they all comprise a supply chain. There is huge scope for recycling, reusing products and reconfiguring supply chains. Technical and economic levers for the sustainable management of natural resources should notably allow for the sustainable use of water, resources and energy as factors of production.

||

2.2. Technical and economic levers for the sustainable management of natural resources 2.2.1. Water as a factor of production: a step towards sustainable use

Figure 12. Freshwater use

11%

Domestic

19% 70%

Industry and energy production Agriculture

Water is paradoxically an abundant and renewable resource, but is not equally available and accessible. The World Bank believes that lack of water will be one of the main factors limiting economic development in coming years. 74 The different uses of water must be reconciled and levers for achieving sustainable water resource management developed across all economic sectors.

74. Comité 21 Prospective Committee. Temps de crise financière, économique, écologique et sociale : enjeux, contradictions, opportunités, 2011.

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One of the major challenges facing the agricultural sector will therefore be to feed the 9 billion people expected to inhabit the planet by 2050 without further degrading or polluting land and water resources. 75 According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), population growth will require agricultural production to increase by 50% by 2030 and 70% by 2050.

Water use: areas of action? Agricultural, industrial and domestic use of water must be reconciled at a global level without further polluting or degrading water resources. Agriculture currently accounts for 70% of the world’s freshwater use and 13% of greenhouse gas emissions. In agriculture, the widespread use of pesticides, herbicides and fertilizers loaded with nitrates also has a significant impact on groundwater. This is slow pollution liable to have a permanent impact on water resources.

In 2000, industry and energy together accounted for 19% of water withdrawals. Such withdrawals are projected to increase by nearly 30% by 2025. In this sector, nuclear and hydraulic energy account for 57% of withdrawals, industrial processes 40% and thermal energy 3%. Industry also releases more than 100,000 chemical components into water. Eutrophication, the result of high nutrient concentrations, significantly reduces the beneficial uses of water. 76

Intensive agricultural models may also disrupt beyond certain thresholds natural regulatory systems, such as the freshwater cycle, biodiversity (with ensuing consequences on agriculture) and the climate (deforestation in order to expand cultivated areas, greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural practices, etc.). These regulatory systems are also disrupted by the dominant genetic- or chemicalbased intensive agricultural models.

Household uses account for an average of 11% of water withdrawals worldwide and are projected to increase by 33% by 2025. Such withdrawals cover urban and rural communities. They include drinking water (1.5% of the uses of tap water), as well as water for sanitation and various domestic uses. 77

In the future, population growth, the adoption of Western lifestyles and the consumption of animal and vegetable proteins may have massive consequences on water availability. In 2010, the United Nations estimated that water withdrawal and consumption will need to increase by 13% to supply an additional 764 million people by 2025.

6,000

12

5,000

10

4,000

8

3,000

6

2,000

4

1,000

2

-

Billions of inhabitants

Water withdrawal, km3/year

Figure 13. Change in water withdrawals and the global population, 1950-2025 78

1950

Agriculture use

1970 Industrial use

1990 Municipal/Domestic use

2000 Reservoirs

2025 Populations (billions)

The increasing scarcity of water resources should prompt measures to optimise use and allow different uses to exist side by side.

75. Press release from the European Commission. Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 2011. 76. PwC, « L’eau : enjeux, dynamiques, solutions ». March 2012. 77. PwC, « L’eau : enjeux, dynamiques, solutions ». March 2012. 78. FAO 2010, UN Water 2009, World Bank 2008.



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Levers for achieving sustainable water use The adoption of sustainable water use should span all agricultural, industrial and domestic uses.

Figure 14. Trends in global population and meat, fish and seafood supplies from 1992-2005 Change, % Fish and seafood

UNEP defines green agriculture in particular as the adoption by industrial and subsistence farming of ecological practices such as the rational use of water, the widespread use of organic and natural fertilisers, optimal tillage and integrated pest management. The establishment of green agriculture also requires physical goods, financial investment, research and capacity building.79

Meat

Global Population

But specialists nevertheless see most leverage in this area coming from the transformation of eating habits. According to a report 80 published by an international research team, priority should be given to direct human consumption, since the crops used to feed cattle or produce agrofuels mean less food for human consumption. Sour

Waste reduction is also essential. According to the FAO, between 30% and 62% of the food produced through agriculture is thrown away, is left to decompose or is eaten by parasites, if it is not lost during storage or transport. This leaves only 2,000 kcal for consumption per person per day compared to total production of 4,600 kcal produced per person per day.

79. 80. 81. 82.

In countries affected by water deficits, one possible area of improvement is to increase water yields 81 (on average these are six times lower than in developed countries). Water use (agricultural, industrial, domestic, etc.) and type (fresh, recycled, rain, etc.) also need to be better matched with available water resources. Virtual water trade applies this principle. The idea is that when food products, such as cereals and animal protein, are imported to waterscarce regions, the quantity of water required to produce those products is also imported, on a virtual basis. 82 In reality, countries suffering from water deficits are often, paradoxically, exporters of products that consume a lot of water.

UNEP. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication – A Synthesis for Policy Makers, 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478, 20 October 2011. Also known as water use efficiency (WUE). Taithe A. Eau, agriculture, énergie: une imbrication croissante. Memorandum 11/09 issued by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).

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Drinking water can also be sourced from the sea using desalination technologies. Although less than 1% of the drinking water consumed worldwide is currently produced using desalination processes, the prospects offered by this technology are increasing. Today there are over 17,000 desalination facilities in operation worldwide, producing 51 million cubic metres of water per day, and it is estimated that this figure will rise to 109 million cubic metres by 2016.83 However, the cost is prohibitive for developing countries. Such solutions are also highly energy intensive (despite advances made in recent years), and have a significant impact on marine life. Reuse of wastewater is also advocated. It involves collecting and treating wastewater for new uses: replenishing groundwater, rivers and oceans, industrial uses, irrigation, heating/cooling, and even drinking water. It is now a technologically effective solution used in the United States, Australia, Asia, the Persian Gulf and around the Mediterranean rim (agricultural reuse of municipal wastewater). It is also widespread in Israel (where 70% of wastewater is recycled). 84 The volume of recycled water is projected almost to double over the coming five years. The main obstacles to its widespread adoption for drinking water lie in the difficulty of persuading the public to accept the use of water obtained from effluent and the high cost of these solutions. In response to pollution and the scarcity of fresh water resources, one of the main priorities is therefore to reduce waste and increase recycling. This also applies to the consumption of natural resources so that used resources can be reinjected into productive systems by steering production and consumption patterns towards circular and functional economies.

2.2.2. Changing production patterns: towards circular and functional economies Industry, which currently employs 23% of labour worldwide, is a key stage in the cycle of raw material use, which begins with resource extraction and ends with product disposal. It is responsible for approximately 35% of global electricity consumption, more than 20% of CO2 emissions and more than a quarter of primary resource extraction. For UNEP, the greening of the manufacturing sector implies “extending the useful life of manufactured goods by means of greater emphasis on redesign, re-manufacturing and recycling”, which constitute the core of closed-loop manufacturing. Redesign and eco-design products Redesigning production systems would involve the redesigning of products to extend their useful life by making them easy to repair, recondition, remanufacture and recycle, thereby providing the basis for closed cycle manufacturing. 85 Product eco-design can be implemented by the manufacturer for the product itself or its packaging. Selecting products on the basis of environmentallyfriendly criteria calls for a global approach taking into account the product’s lifecycle: extraction of raw materials, production, energy consumption and pollution generated during the product’s transport, use and elimination. A product’s environmental footprint will therefore be smaller if it is manufactured using renewable or recycled materials and local products that do not require transport. But a comprehensive analysis of a product’s lifecycle can lead to unexpected findings: the results will differ depending on usage (frequency, maintenance, etc.) and the specific context (energy source, etc.) of the good or equipment analysed.

83. Galland F. Géopolitique du dessalement. Memorandum issued by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), 29 September 2008. . 84. PwC, « L’eau : enjeux, dynamiques, solutions ». March 2012. 85. UNEP. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication – A Synthesis for Policy Makers, 2012.



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As demand increases and resources become scarcer, waste management raises important issues in respect of how to process waste and promote recycling. Developing recycling and resource conversion of resources It would be hard to carry out an evaluation of global waste production. It is easier to use information on waste collection, for which there is more data. The amount of waste collected worldwide is estimated at more than 2.7 billion tonnes. 86 Packaging accounts for 50% of the volume and 30% of the weight of household waste. In the future, population increases, the spread of urbanisation and economic growth in emerging countries will trigger an explosion in the volume of waste, particularly electronic and hazardous waste. It is estimated that a total of 13.1 billion tonnes of waste will be produced globally by 2050, an increase of approximately 20% compared with 2009. 87

Currently, only 25% of the total volume of waste is recovered or recycled, while the total volume of waste collected for recycling is estimated at USD 410 billion per annum. 88 The economic potential represented by waste management and recycling is increasing in some areas of the world, offering employment and business opportunities.

Figure 15. Estimated world waste production and collection for 2006

Estimated world waste production and collection for 2006 Tonnes

Quantities produced (tonnes)

Quantities collected (tonnes)

World total municipal waste

1.7 to 1.9 billion

1.23 billion

Manufacturing industry non-hazardous waste

1.2 to 1.67 billion

1.2 billion

490 million

300 million

3.4 to 4 billion

2.74 billion

Manufacturing industry hazardous waste for a selection of countries Total Source: CyclOpe.

Note: The quantities of non-hazardous and hazardous construction and demolition waste produced in a selection of countries amount to 1 billion tonnes. The quantities of waste produced by the mining, electricity and water industry (non-hazardous) in a selection of countries amount to 6.4 billion tonnes

86. Veolia Propreté and CyclOpe. Du rare à l’infini : panorama mondial des déchets 2006. Economica, 2006. 87. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 88. UNEP. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication – A Synthesis for Policy Makers, 2012.

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This observation is particularly true for certain metals that will not be widely available in two or three decades. “The increase in metal recycling rates, for example for iron, steel, aluminium, lead and copper, which currently vary between 25% and 75%, could at the same time make it possible to save millions of tonnes of CO2, since the production and extraction of base metals from mines require a great deal of water and energy,” says UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner. 89 Waste conversion involves reuse, recycling or any other initiative designed to obtain reusable materials or energy from waste. The sector is dominated by two types of conversion: “material conversion” (landfills, etc.) and “energy conversion” (compost, biogas, etc.), where the market is projected to total USD 20 billion by 2050, with scope for growth of 30% as of 2014. Waste can represent a rare resource, but poor management can also generate health or environmental risks. It is therefore important first to monitor working conditions in this business sector, and second to ensure that the strong growth of the emerging countries is accompanied by better waste management.90 The large-scale integration of recycling into business models has fostered the development of circular and functional economies. Developing circular and functional economies The Lisbon process 91 provides the following definition of the circular economy: “the exchange of materials where one facility’s waste, including energy, water, materials – as well as information – is another facility’s input. […] The «Recycling-based Society» means a society where the consumption of

natural resources will be restrained or limited and the environmental load reduced to the maximum extent. […] To achieve the establishment of the recycling-based system is a long-range target of the environmental policy. [...] Consequently, it is necessary to integrate the Circular Economy closed loop into the socio-economic system.” The functional economy takes this notion further, in the aim of optimising the use or function of goods and services. It involves, for instance, replacing the purchase of a good (TV, car, etc.) by the use of a service (hiring a TV or a car) so as to optimise the use of the good in question and to limit the impact of production in terms of sustainable development. As such, the functional economy is focused on the management of existing wealth, in the form of products, knowledge or natural capital. The economic objective is to create a use value that remains as high as possible for as long as possible, while consuming the least possible energy and material resources. The aim is thereby to achieve greater competitiveness and to boost corporate earnings. The functional economy goes beyond the circular economy: it favours use as opposed to ownership, and as such calls for a change in both consumption patterns and production methods. The decoupling of resource consumption from production will therefore involve first of all the adoption of sustainable consumption patterns, by changing attitudes and habits, and second the implementation of sustainable production methods, the “greening” of which will be facilitated by the development of eco-design and the circular and functional economies.

89. PV Cycle European Photovoltaic Panel Programme, implemented by manufacturers in the sector. 90. Press release from the European Commission. Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 2011. 91. Shared Prosperity and Global Well-being in a Circular Economy.



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Rhodia and Rhodia Energy Services: An example of the complementary fit of the various sectors of the green economy Rhodia is one of the top three global players in speciality chemicals. It derives 30% of its sales (4,031 million euros in 2009) from the RhodiaWay sustainable development approach. Rhodia has also developed the resale of carbon credits, and it relies on plants in sourcing its biotechnology needs. Rhodia’s strategic choices in respect of the green economy are original and highlight the complementary fit of the various sectors of the green economy. In addition to its commitment to a policy geared towards limiting as far as possible the risks to people and the environment and encouraging the search for sustainable and efficient products through various green chemistry channels (use of wood or oilseeds in the composition of biosolvents, surfactants and high-performance plastics for the automotive industry and cigarette filters), Rhodia moved to promote entrepreneurial initiatives outside the chemicals industry in the strict sense by creating Rhodia Energy Services in late 1999 and by positioning itself in electricity storage (provision of ionic solutions for batteries). Rhodia Energy aims to promote energy efficiency, reduce energy costs and foster an energy policy that allows the development of new methods of production using renewable resources. Several green products have emerged, including the Michelin-Rhodia green tyre. Targeting the truck market, the Michelin-Rhodia partnership has resulted in the replacement of carbon black by silica in tyre manufacturing. This innovation has reduced rolling resistance by 25%, helping cut trucks’ fuel consumption – and as such their CO2 emissions – by 5% to 7%. Since the technology was introduced in 1990, 30 billion litres of fuel have been saved and 65 million tonnes of CO2 emissions avoided. Rhodia is a division of the Solvay group. Source: Extract of the report “L’industrie française face à l’économie verte : l’exemple de sept filières”, by Crifo P., Flam M. and Glachant M. Report for Cercle de l’Industrie, June 2011

Chemicals and waste Chemical substances were a key topic of discussion at the Rio Summit in 1992. Targets have been set for the implementation of evaluation and management mechanisms in this area. The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants was adopted in 2001. UNEP set up an Intergovernmental Forum on Chemical Safety (1994), an inter-agency coordination mechanism. It has also adopted a mechanism for the management of conventions bearing on chemicals and hazardous materials.

These agreements should nevertheless cover a larger number of chemicals of global importance. Many developing countries are also exposed to temporary regulatory gaps in the event of mismatches between production and use of chemicals. 92 In the final declaration of Rio+20, the various governments confirm their goal of achieving good management of chemicals and hazardous waste throughout their lifecycles by 2020 in order to minimise their adverse effects on human health and the environment, and to meet new and emerging challenges.

92. UNEP. Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5): Environment for Development. Summary for Decision Makers, 2012.

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Significant constraints are weighing on energy demand, such as the depletion of fossil fuels, global warming, considerable demand in emerging countries and calls for energy equality. These constraints require a proactive energy policy drawing on a variety of sectors as well as resolute industrial and scientific choices for individuals and governments in preparing for the future and adapting to the different energy challenges. 93 Efforts should be focused on areas in which CO2 emissions are high: deforestation, energy, transport and construction. Increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy “All forms of technology and energy are required” to halve global CO2 emissions, according to Nobui Tanaka, Executive Director of the IEA. To achieve this, the two priorities are “often inexpensive” improvements in terms of energy efficiency and the “decarbonisation of the electricity sector” by developing renewable energy sources and nuclear power, and equipping power plants with carboncapture and carbon-storage technologies. 94 Improving energy efficiency “Energy efficiency” is the ratio of the useful energy produced by a system and the total energy consumed to operate it. Energy savings and improving energy efficiency can be achieved by changing behaviour and/or improving technologies and materials. The first goal requires awareness of the issues among the population and a new attitude to lifestyles and customs. The second goal of improved technology and materials can be achieved primarily in the fields of construction and industry.

Figure 16. Trends in global greenhouse gas emissions by sector between 1990 and 2004 14 12 10

GtGtCO 2eq. CO 2-éq.

2.2.3. Energy-efficient production

8

6 4 2 0

1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 Energy Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture LULUCF Waste (25,9 %) (13,1 %) (7,9 %) (19,4 %) (13,5 %) (17,4 %) (2,8 %)

Fluorinated gases

N 2O

CH4

CO2

The percentage indicated for each sector corresponds to its share of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2004. Source: IPCC, Working Group I Report, 2007.

Means of improving energy efficiency span both “passive” solutions, i.e., reducing the energy consumption of equipment and materials by achieving better intrinsic performances, and other more “active” solutions designed to optimise flows and resources. Passive solutions involves architecture (exposure, additional insulation, sealing, ventilation), heating systems and electrical equipment. Active solutions aim to use “just enough” energy through the active management of equipment by smart electrical systems. A study by the World Energy Council 95 highlights the fact that energy intensity (energy used per unit of GDP) fell by an average of 1.6% per annum between 1990 and 2006. Nearly two-thirds of countries have improved their energy intensity: 40% by more than 1% per annum (70 countries) and a quarter by more than 2% per annum (40 countries).

93. Papon P. Vers une nouvelle donne énergétique. Le Monde, 17 June 2011. 94. Brachet A. Energie : le monde continue de se diriger dans la mauvaise direction à un rythme accéléré. AEDD, 8 July 2011. 95. World Energy Council. Energy Efficiency Policies around the World, 2007.



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Factors in reducing energy intensity differ from one country to another. In industrialised countries, energy intensity gains come from industries whereas in emerging countries, the residential sector is the leading source of reduction. In China and the CIS, industry, equipment transformations and households have contributed equally to energy productivity gains. The final declaration of the Rio Conference stressed the importance of energy efficiency in the fight against climate change, particularly in key sectors such as construction, transport, production and the design of goods and services. It also encourages the development of incentives for investment in research, the diversification of the energy mix and energy efficiency in developing countries. Developing renewable energy Renewable energy, although it still accounts for less than 13% of primary energy worldwide, would, if developed on a grand scale, effectively contribute to the fight against global warming. The IPCC’s May 2011 report outlines a scenario in which renewables could represent up to 80% of global energy demand by 2050. Achieving this goal would help cap the increase in mean temperatures at 2°C, in line with the Cancun Agreements. While still far short of these levels of development, renewables are already expanding at a rapid pace. According to a UNEP report, nearly 48 billion euros were invested in renewable energy in 2010, a 32% increase compared with 2009. Wind power topped spending, with 66 billion euros. China invested USD 55 billion in the sector in 2010 (the world’s leading exporter of solar panels), followed by Germany, with USD 42 billion, and the United States with USD 35 billion. 96 Some sources 97 that are not yet used extensively may end up growing faster than others. They include second-generation biofuels, in which research is aimed at using entire plants and at using plants other than those currently used (algae, microorganisms, etc.), as well as other forms of renewable marine energy (offshore wind, ocean thermal, marine current, tidal and wave power).

However, these resources are not unlimited, and intensive use may have irreversible effects. Hydropower causes problems relating to the filling of dams, water flow and alluvial deposits. Hydroelectric dams may also lead to conflict if they are placed on large rivers that pass through several countries (e.g., Syria and Iraq opposed the Turkish project to build 22 dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers). Tidal power can face difficulties relating to water levels at the river mouth, silting, etc. The main challenge facing solar thermal energy and solar electricity is intermittent sunlight. Wind power is also hindered by intermittent wind, storms, corrosion and the amount of surface area occupied. Lastly, geothermal power must take into account corrosion and substantial maintenance obligations. Renewable energies need to be developed in parallel with the adoption of new patterns of production and sustainable consumption, which consume less energy, particularly in the areas of transport and construction. Promote sustainable modes of transport Global oil consumption for transport accounts for 27% of CO2 emissions from energy worldwide. The proportion was 23% in 1990 and is rising steadily.98 According to the International Energy Agency, emissions from the transport sector could reach 18 billion tonnes in 2050, with strong growth in developing countries and, in particular, emerging countries. Increasing transport and energy needs Economic development gives rise to increased mobility for people and goods. Strong growth within the BRICs has led to a sharp increase in demand for transport. Needs in respect of mobility also change under the combined impact of several factors: first, changing patterns of consumption, production and distribution; and, second, change in lifestyles in favour of city dwelling, causing urban sprawl. These increases in transport have an impact on energy consumption. In 35 years, final energy consumption for worldwide transport has doubled.

96. Papon P. Vers une nouvelle donne énergétique. Le Monde, 17 June 2011. 97. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 98. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre.

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Road transport (people and goods), which uses oil for 95% of its energy needs, is the biggest source of energy consumption (81%), followed by air transport (13%). Rail transport (2%) is the only means of transport for which final energy consumption is decreasing. Lastly, international shipping is growing steadily (2%). It accounted for 80% of global goods transport before the crisis. 99 Greenhouse gas emissions related to transport For shipping, “CO2 emissions from ships nearly tripled and SO2 emissions more than tripled between 1925 and 2002.” “Projections up to the year 2020 indicate growth in maritime fuel consumption and emissions in the range of 30%.” “Expected technological innovations are unlikely to prevent an increase in CO2 emissions from aviation either, in light of the expected increase in demand.” Lastly, “international road and rail freight transport account for a minor share of global transport emissions of local air pollutants and noise.” The IEA has developed several scenarios for trends in greenhouse gas emissions associated with transport. 100 The reference scenario assumes that the policies chosen by the various countries remain unchanged compared with those of 2006. The second, “alternative policy”, scenario assumes a switch to proactive policies aimed at reducing energy consumption and emissions in the context of an oil price of USD 50 per barrel.

to respond simultaneously to the issues of economic development and environmental protection, without one impeding the other, is a major challenge reflected in the concept of sustainable mobility. Sustainable mobility is defined as “a transport policy which seeks to reconcile accessibility, economic progress and the environmental impact of the transport selected.” For individuals, it must adapt to each need for mobility, in particular through a multimodal offering. As regards goods, the key issue is to optimise existing networks and improve exchange platforms in a way that is truly efficient in order to ensure efficient transfers between the different modes of transport. 101 The final declaration of Rio+20 highlights the pivotal role of transport and mobility in sustainable development as a means of generating economic growth and improved access to remote areas, thereby promoting the integration of populations. However, transport must respect the environment by aiming to reduce emissions and air pollution. The proposed solutions include better energy efficiency, multi-modal transport, clean vehicles and fuels, public transport and improving mass transit systems in rural areas. 102

The first scenario shows a 60% increase in final energy for the transport sector worldwide and a 55% increase in the use of petrol, which remains very dominant in 2030 (93%, compared with 95% in 2004). In the alternative policy scenario, efforts are focused chiefly on energy efficiency and alternative fuels. This scenario makes it possible to limit the oil production needed for transport to 63 million barrels per day, compared with 70 million barrels per day in the first scenario. These scenarios are also used by companies to develop their transport strategies. Transport strategies and sustainable mobility Given the impact of transport on greenhouse gas emissions, the definition of transport development strategies that make it possible

99. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 100. Global Chance. Des prévisions qui conduisent à une double impasse. Vers la sortie de la route ? Les transports face aux défis de l’énergie et du climat. No. 26, January 2009. 101. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 102. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable. International Organisation of la Francophonie.



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European TK’Blue Agency, the first European extra-financial rating agency focused on the environmental footprint of the logistics chain. For Pierre Ducret, the issue of sustainable development and the transition to a low-carbon green economy in the field of transport must be based on the concept of responsibility. “The question is: Who is responsible for the nature, quality and performance of transport used? Shippers need to be included in the answer.” Pierre Ducret, Chairman of CDC Climat

The “TK’Blue” rating is a “demand incentive” addressed at “shippers and carriers” who undertake to achieve a reasonable proportion of their transport (e.g., a certain percentage of tonnes per kilometre, or “TK”) via an optimodal transport solution (efficient in technical, economic, social and environmental terms). It is implemented by an extra-financial rating agency, European TK’Blue Agency, which approves “optimodal” transport offers and allows the shippers that use the services of certified operators to benefit from these TK’Blues in proportion to the environmental quality of the transport they choose. In calculating their rating, the agency also looks at their competitive positioning and their own progress in the use of eco-friendly modes of transport. Its creation was supported by the French Ministry of Transport and European institutions, including the Marco Polo Agency.

Philippe Mangeard, says that “the TK’Blue mark is a new unit of value that will give value to TKs transported in an economically and socially responsible manner. Using cleaner modes of transport translates into a good TK’Blue rating, thereby encouraging companies to ask their logistics providers to use optimodal solutions as often as possible. This creates a virtuous circle linking the shipper’s commitment to request “low-carbon” transport to the carrier’s commitment to provide it under the best possible economic and quality conditions.” “This is the commitment we ask of shippers: with European TK’Blue Agency, you can be committed, watchful and responsible, thereby making the transport chain more ecofriendly and much cheaper… even for you!” Philippe Mangeard, the Agency’s founding chairman

To assess the behaviour rated, TK’Blue Agency takes into account criteria validated at the European level through a scoring algorithm developed by a Scientific Council comprising scientists and acknowledged leaders in the world of transport, based on: • The choice of mode of transport: road, river, sea, rail, short-sea, over-sea and air. The intra-modal index reflects the entire marginal cost from one mode to another, factoring in all negative externalities, such as air pollution, noise, congestion, accidents, soil and water pollution, both upstream and downstream. • The choice of carrier in the mode in question: The carrier’s intra-modal index is based on the energy efficiency of the materials chosen and the management of the human resources under its responsibility.

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Opting for ecological construction practices With 8.6 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, the construction sector is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases worldwide, a third of the final use of the world’s energy taking place in buildings. It is also responsible for over a third of global consumption of material resources, including 12% of freshwater use, and accounts for 40% of the creation of solid waste. Various studies indicate that annual global investments of between USD 300 billion and 1 trillion (depending on the assumptions) until 2050 could allow the construction sector to reduce its energy consumption by about a third worldwide compared with projections based on a continuation of the current situation (i.e., without investments to achieve energy savings). 103 The implementation of green construction practices can take place at two different stages: when a new building (low energy house, positive energy home) is erected or when existing buildings are renovated or rehabilitated. 104 Sustainable construction is a way of building by creating, restoring or rehabilitating a habitat that makes it possible to spare non-renewable resources, generate the least pollution and waste possible, and plan future use of the building that consumes the smallest amount of resources (energy, effective water and waste processes, etc.).

In order to deal with the spoiling of resources, which is getting worse and threatens to lead to threshold effects, economic players have several levers at their disposal to ensure human life while saving natural resources. Technical levers in particular must be used to reduce waste, develop recycling and enhance efficiency in the use of resources. Research must also carried be out on green, liberal and inclusive economic models.

Projects must also adapt to their environment and make the best use of it. “Construction should take into account the climate-related parameters of the site (sunlight, protection from prevailing winds, appropriate plant species, etc.), topography and geography, and the preservation of landscapes.” 105

103. UNEP. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication – A Synthesis for Policy Makers, 2012. 104. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 105. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre.



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The debate between growth and simple living was launched with the 1972 release of “The Limits to Growth”, a report commissioned by the Club of Rome. The purpose of the book was to warn leaders about finite resource supplies. The Stockholm Declaration in 1972, the Rio Declaration in 1992 and the Johannesburg Declaration in 2002 subsequently reaffirmed the importance of building a more efficient economic model for the use of non-renewable resources. Discussions on green, liberal and inclusive economic models are driven in particular by debate on economic instruments and the social and environmental aspects of green business.

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2.3. Opting for a green, liberal or inclusive economy

2.3.1. Economic instruments: the markets The markets and economic instruments created to organise cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and to protect biodiversity, make it possible to estimate the economic impact of the degradation of natural resources and have already given an indication of the efficiency of the instruments in place. The fight against global warming: a costly policy or the promise of an investment-led recovery? The IPCC’s reports clearly show that capping the increase in mean temperatures at 2°C would require cutting emissions of greenhouse gases by between “50% and 85% by 2050 compared with 2000” at the global level, with a “peak before 2020 and substantial decline thereafter”. Despite the adoption of the principle of common but differentiated

responsibility, governments are struggling to make commitments commensurate with the urgency. While a proactive environmental policy at international level may not bring greenhouse gas emissions under control, it would at least cap them. The IPCC says that such a policy would cost the equivalent of 3% of global GDP in 2030. Many reports show that measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions will become more restrictive and expensive as time progresses, if action is not taken immediately. Economist Nicolas Stern estimates the cost at 5,500 billion euros if no action is taken in the coming 10 years. An increase of more than 2°C in mean temperatures by 2050 could lead to the loss of between 5% and 20% of global GDP, compared with 1% to 2% if mitigation and adaptation measures are adopted. 106 Regional carbon markets are a means of putting economic foundations under mitigation efforts, and have been developed and opened

106. French Ministry of Defence. Horizons stratégiques 2012.

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in several parts of the world. In Europe, the European Trading System (ETS) operates on the basis of European allowances, and only concerns industrial facilities with a capacity of 20 MW (11,000 European companies responsible for 50% of the EU’s CO2 emissions). Some countries that have not made commitments and/or are not parties to the Kyoto Protocol have also established carbon markets. In the United States, initiatives have been undertaken by local authorities and some states. They include Illinois, with the Chicago Climate Exchange 107 . China, the world’s largest emitter of CO2, is also preparing the establishment of a national platform for the exchange of emission credits.

He says that we should see the fight against global warming as a growth driver, represented by the creation of a value – a price for carbon – in the economy. “If we efficiently redistribute the value of carbon, set either by a tax or the trading of allowances, it creates a new financial aggregate that can be partially allocated to new growth (...). Taking the environment into account will not be a cost to the economy if we are able to factor the value of the environment into the economic system. But, if we fail to do so, green growth will remain a hollow concept.” 110 The same paradigm can be adopted in relation to protecting biodiversity. One of the courses of action taken in this respect is its monetisation.

Quota markets lead to the efficient allocation of global constraints on emissions between emitters. In a correctly operating market, the price of carbon offsets the emissions reduction costs of the market’s players. This allows emissionsreduction targets to be met at a lower cost. 108 This equilibrium is not currently respected in the European system. The price of a metric ton of CO2 has been stuck at between 6 and 8 euros over the last six months – much too low to encourage investment. The collapse was sparked by the overabundance of outstanding quotas and the low level of CO2 emissions needing to be offset. The European Commission has proposed that member states set aside quotas (400 million, 900 million or 1.4 billion) and reintroduce them in 2016. European consensus is still a long way off on this issue. 109 These negotiations are another example of the tendency of governments, compounded by the financial crisis, to push back deadlines. Christian de Perthuis contends that the crisis has changed the perception of the climate emergency for a growing number of political and economic decision makers. And he sees the argument according to which a choice must be made between addressing the financial crisis and combating global warming as specious: it analyses the efforts required as a cost, whereas they should be seen as an investment in a vital transition.

Biodiversity and human development: between protection and monetisation Land and marine biodiversity and the services they provide, which are essential to almost all human activities, are highly threatened. One of the ways proposed to improve their protection is the monetisation of nature. Biodiversity: essential to virtually all human activities Biodiversity loss is not solely an environmental or ethical issue. Biodiversity is the basis for the livelihoods of many groups of people and provides many services in respect of supply, regulation and culture. For example, it is estimated that 80% of people in developing countries

107. The world’s first carbon market, launched in 2003. 108. Delbosc A. and de Perthuis C. Carbon markets: the simple facts. UN Global Compact Office. 109. Allix G. Le marché carbone sous pression. Le Monde, 24 August 2012. 110. Héraud B. Et si le changement climatique nous aidait à sortir de la crise. Novethic, 17 April 2012.



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rely on traditional medicines and half of the most frequently prescribed drugs in developed countries derive from natural sources. Some 1.3 billion people depend on fishing, forests and agriculture for employment. 111 Biodiversity makes virtually all human activities possible. Numerous economic sectors also depend on the sea and water. The sea is first and foremost important as a source of food. Each year, the oceans supply 85 million tonnes of protein used as food for both humans and animals. Aquafarming is an indispensable complement to fishing. In 2006, its output (52 million tonnes) provided half of the annual world catch for the first time. 112 In addition to the food they provide, marine biological resources offer an important development potential for farming, cosmetics, the environmental industry and energy (agro-fuel). Biodiversity also provides mankind with ecosystem services. The notion of ecosystem services – which was popularised by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment issued in 2005 – is used to demonstrate the major economic value of the services provided by the world’s ecosystems as well as the interest in preserving these services because the cost of their preservation for companies is much cheaper than investing in the artificial creation of similar services. 113 Experts estimate the value of the goods and services provided by ecosystems at some 26,000 billion euros per annum, nearly twice the value of what humans produce each year. Towards an economic valuation of biodiversity Ecosystems are already the object of commercial transactions. The price of land is nevertheless much lower than it would be if it took into account the ecosystem services present on the allotment. Concerning plants and animals, payment is already required to hunt and/ or harvest certain species. Access to and the valuation of interspecific diversity 114 requires that the interests of indigenous communities – the traditional users of these resources – be reconciled with those of the firms from the developed world that wish to exploit them.

The use of biodiversity is therefore already traded, but its use is likely to become more expensive in the future, due to several factors: economic factors, with the increasing scarcity of supply coupled with rising demand tending to push up prices; environmental factors, with the proper management of this renewable resource requiring prohibitive prices for extractions exceeding its renewal capacity; and legal factors, with the trend towards a more precise definition of rights to biodiversity also liable to exert upward pressure on prices. A possible way forward for the economic valuation of biodiversity appears to be emerging with the creation of biodiversity banking and offset schemes such as those that already exist in the United States, Australia and Germany. The landowner pays funds into a bank specialised in the management of ecosystems, which then uses these funds to carry out offset projects for ecosystem restoration or recreation. In return, the bank grants the landowner “credits” that represent the recreated biodiversity.115 To put an economic value on nature and biodiversity, it is also necessary to define specific indicators. On this issue, Romain Pirard 116 has stated that “Apart from the fact that they all seek to put a price on nature, market-based instruments are extremely heterogeneous. It is therefore impossible to gauge their pertinence (...) across the board.” 117 The challenges involved in managing natural resources have been discussed during debates on the green economy at international summits focused on these issues.

111. UNEP. Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4): Environment for Development. Summary for Decision Makers, 2007. 112. Comité 21 Prospective Committee. Temps de crise financière, économique, écologique et sociale : enjeux, contradictions, opportunités.. 113. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 114. Within the same species. 115. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 116. Doctor in environmental economics, economist with Iddri (Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales). 117. Auzanneau F. Biodiversité : Les instruments de marché sont très hétérogènes. (Pirard R., IDD). AEDD, 8 June 2011.

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2.3.2. Greening growth or invention of a green economy? Launched by the United Nations, the idea of the green economy (which combines development, the fight against poverty and respect for the environment) conveys the need for a transition to new patterns of production and consumption. Green growth, the new market economy? Green growth is a moveable feast which has been strongly criticised, with some people insisting on the need to highlight the social aspects of green business. These discussions have also driven debate on new prosperity models. A moveable feast The concepts of “sensible growth” and “smart growth” were thus created to reflect an economic development model that is not based on exploiting resources equivalent to those of two or three planets. Some experts even believe that to avoid an imposed decline in growth, it is necessary to implement “voluntary negative growth” in order to keep consumption in line with current global demographics. 118 The concept of green growth is a rallying point, but it is also criticised. For UNEP, the green economy is one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one that is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive. Reports have proliferated on the subject (UNEP, OECD, World Bank, etc.). The concept is viewed with suspicion by developing countries 119, which assert that it does not sufficiently take into account the social aspect, and see it as a roundabout way of establishing new trade barriers against them. For anti-globalisation

advocates, the green economy is a Trojan horse hiding further commodification of nature. 120 For Christian de Perthuis and Pierre-André Jouvet 121 the representation of green growth as a form of growth which allows us to overcome the planet’s physical limits (availability of natural resources or the ability of the planet to absorb our pollution) has two main defects: first, it is difficult, as has been shown throughout economic history, to gauge the planet’s physical limits, disruptive technology being hard to anticipate; second, the “definition describes the outcome without providing any indication of the conditions required to attain it (...). The word ‘green’ becomes a moveable feast, which anyone can attend, but which lacks aggregates giving a synthetic view of it.” While the notion of green growth may be unclear and subject to criticism, it is still possible to see it in the light of the development of green technologies and green business. Social and environmental aspects of “Green Business” The economic and financial crisis has fostered dialogue on the means of achieving green growth that is more energy efficient, uses green technology and is more respectful of the social issues related to sustainable development.122 More stringent environmental regulations (in Western countries) and public procurement (especially in China) have spurred the development of green technology. This technology can be used for remedial purposes in low-growth mature sectors (treatment of waste water, other waste, etc.) or for preventive purposes in highgrowth sectors (renewable energy, energy storage, low emission vehicles, eco-design). 123 However, while this kind of change is positive in that it shows that the economic world has finally grasped the devastating effects of carbonintensive growth and the need to change the structure for investments, it can also, when it does not go hand in hand with genuine

118. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 119. See page 24. 120. Héraud B. Ce qui se joue à Rio. Novethic, 11 June 2012. 121.Jouvet P. A. and de Perthuis C. La croissance verte : de l’intention à la mise en oeuvre. Les Cahiers de la Chaire Economie du Climat, 15 June 2012. 122. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 123. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre.



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transformation, illustrate an excess of faith in simple technical adjustments to put things right. Environmental technology adjusted using a traditional Promethean ideal does not in principle ensure that our mode of development will be transformed. It also contains its own traps. 124 The three main dangers are the rebound effect (efficiency gains enabled by technological advances encourage increased consumption), the green bubble (the perverse effects of public support) and the transfer of environmental pressure, adverse effects of substituting one resource for another in a productive process, resulting in an increase in the direct environmental impacts associated with the lifecycle of the product in question, or indirect impacts in the form of the loss of a source of subsistence for populations dependent thereon). Green business is a global market already worth more than 1,000 billion euros – the equivalent of the aeronautics or pharmaceutical industry – that is growing at a rate of 6% per year and offers major prospects for development, especially in the fight against global warming.125 A UNEP 126 study shows that investing 2% of global GDP in ten key sectors would make it possible to move towards a green economy. This investment, which is estimated to be “approximately an average of USD 1,300 billion per year”, would enable the world economy to “achieve a growth rate that is almost equal to, if not higher than, the predictions of the current economic models”. 127 The green economy is also likely to benefit the social pillar of sustainable development, since, according to the new report “Working towards sustainable development: Opportunities for decent work and social inclusion in a green economy”, published by UNEP, the ILO and the OIE, “the transformation to a greener economy could generate 15 to 60 million additional jobs globally over the next two decades and lift tens of millions of workers out of poverty”. Eight key sectors are expected to play a pivotal role and be particularly affected, namely agriculture, forestry, fishing, energy, resource-intensive manufacturing, recycling, building and transport.128

However, the final declaration of Rio also recognises the close connection and the interaction between eradicating poverty, full employment, decent work for all and social integration. The states also underline the risks related to the employment of young people and the need for all workers to have access to education, knowledge, healthcare, workers’ fundamental rights and social welfare. Discussions on the green economy have been accompanied by reflections on new models of prosperity. Prosperity: a new economic concept? Until very recently, development policies with a focus on growth and the development of natural resources were considered the only possible response. However, it is now obvious that such approaches have reached their limits in all respects, not least of all environmentally, socially, economically and financially. There is also the realisation that the application of a single development model on a planetary scale would require three to six times more resources than are effectively available. What should be measured? The economic power of states can be gauged by their capacity to produce, consume and conquer new markets. Consequently, the economic dimension takes precedence over the other social and environmental issues. The questioning of GDP as an indicator guiding economic strategy has resonated among international organisations for 20 years. Recently, the Stiglitz Commission, the OECD and the European Union issued proposals for new indicators. 129 Researchers from the University of Rotterdam have also established a happiness ranking based on 953 indicators. In 2007, British psychologist Adrian White from the University of Leicester drew up a world map of happiness based on five criteria: health, wealth, education, national identity and natural beauty. 130

124. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 125. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 126. UNEP. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication, 21 February 2011. 127. Dourlens S. Économie ‘verte’: le PNUE préconise d’investir 2% du PIB mondial dans dix secteurs clés. AEDD, 21 February 2011. 128. Green Jobs Initiative (UNEP, ILO and IOE partnership). Working towards sustainable development: Opportunities for decent work and social inclusion in a green economy, 31 May 2012. 129. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable. International Organisation of la Francophonie. 130. Aizicovici F. Depuis vingt ans, les initiatives se sont multipliées. Le Monde Économie, 28 January 2008.

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However, none of these prospective studies has had much effect. They cannot seem to move beyond the world of academia and international organisations, and do not translate into political action. Yet, if these indices were used by economic actors in major international conferences, comparisons between countries would change radically and a type of global ethic would be established. However, no change in the “wealth” indicator will be pertinent without profound socioeconomic change, and the adoption of a new scale of values used to measure and compare the performance of governments, companies and possibly even individuals. Indeed, we must go further, and change our vision of “prosperity”. Tim Jackson, for instance, has proposed a “new concept of prosperity”, which he defines as a state in which we thrive when “things [are] going well for us, in accordance with our hopes and expectations”. In our societies, Jackson believes, the idea of prosperity refers to an imaginary abundance and ever increasing consumption, but that the finite nature of natural resources is now forcing us to review this notion. He suggests adopting the concept of “prosperity without growth”, based on the limitation of material needs, since “in a world of limits, certain kinds of freedoms are either impossible or immoral. The freedom to endlessly accumulate material goods is one of them.” So we must accept this limitation on our freedom to exploit nature, especially given the importance of this protection for the survival of certain populations. The definition of sustainable development goals (SDGs) at Rio+20 may be a first step in this direction, since these objectives blend social and environmental statistics that concern all countries. Destined to become “a central part of (...) the global development framework” according to UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon and to replace the Millennium Development Goals these SDGs will be defined by 2015.

Jackson advocates choosing the capabilities that people require to flourish as the new basis for measuring prosperity: to be well nourished, accommodated, heated, educated, etc. “But this vision needs to be interpreted carefully: not as a set of disembodied freedoms, but as a range of ‘bounded capabilities’ to live well – within certain clearly defined limits,” such as the global population and the finite nature of ecological resources. 131 New prosperity, new sustainability? This is actually a single, simple question: how can we ensure the future survival of humanity under acceptable economic and social conditions? The current feeling is that action is required on all fronts. We need to attenuate the impact of our past development models and make adjustments in line with our new objectives. We also need to build a future, but have no blueprint to follow, since scientific forecasts of global warming, for example, and assumptions regarding behaviour patterns for a worldwide population of seven billion to ten billion are vague. Over the past 25 years, the size of the global economy has quadrupled, and hundreds of millions of people have benefited, albeit unevenly, from this growth. By contrast, 60% of the major ecological goods and services on which livelihoods depend have deteriorated or been used without concern for sustainability. Resource depletion affects all the economic sectors that form the basis of the supply of food for humans and are a crucial means of existence for the poor. 132

131. Tim Jackson. Prosperity without Growth? The Transition to a Sustainable Economy. Sustainable Development Commission, 2010. 132. UNEP. Towards a green economy: pathways to sustainable development and poverty reduction, 2011.



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However, as Antoine Pierre Jouvet and Christian de Perthuis point out, nature renders production services (production of water, energy, food, pharmaceutical, genetic and ornamental resources), regulatory services (air quality, erosion, water purification, climate regulation, damping effects of climatic hazards), primary services (soil formation, photosynthesis, water cycle, nutrient cycles) and cultural services (creativity, recreation, education, etc.) 133 upon which human activities and well-being depend. However, these global public goods, which are the basis of various services and a source of subsistence, have deteriorated considerably. The degradation of these resources and balances impacts and restricts the development of the related human and economic activity.

A report analysing the challenges of the Conference also noted that the adaptation of our societies to the fact that we have reached the limits of the planet will require in particular the optimal use of natural resources. “This must be the central value of the 21st century, in moral, personal, cultural, technological, economic and financial terms. It will also require simple living and sharing in the use of these resources. It will require that each resource – energy, mineral or derived from biological activity – be used in an optimal fashion in the service of all.” 135 This optimisation must be achieved through co-construction.

“Sustainability is not exclusively or even primarily an environmental issue. It is fundamentally about how we choose to live our lives, with an awareness that everything we do has consequences for the 7 billion of us here today, as well as for the billions more who will follow, for centuries to come,” says UNDP Administrator Helen Clark in the foreword of the UNDP report, “Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All”. The report also shows how environmental damage increases inequality by exerting a negative impact on already disadvantaged people and how inequalities in human development amplify environmental damage. 134 The interdependence of these factors requires us to rethink the way in which we consume and produce and to change our perception of prosperity. The issue of population is the first variable to consider in development equations. As we noted above, other limitations to consider are the depletion of non-renewable resources, the degradation of renewable resources by pollution and the alteration of the natural system’s key regulatory functions.

133. Jouvet P. A. and de Perthuis C. La croissance verte : de l’intention à la mise en oeuvre. Les Cahiers de la Chaire Economie du Climat, 15 June 2012. 134. Héraud B. Le PNUD appelle à une économie verte et équitable. Novethic, 7 November 2011. 135. International Organisation of la Francophonie. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable, 2012.

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As we are faced with the increasing scarcity of resources and deterioration in the essential regulatory functions of the biosphere, the economic and technical drivers identified in the previous section of this report can help us to manage these resources more sustainably. However, the technological responses currently at our disposal are inadequate and adaptation must now dictate policy in all areas. The focus should therefore be on co-construction in the economic, social and environmental fields. The co-construction of democracy is defined by each person’s right to contribute to the making of decisions that determine his or her existence and to get involved locally and internationally. The contributions of individuals, businesses and governments are therefore essential in coconstructing new modes of consumption and production and rethinking global governance.



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3.1. Technological solutions are essential but insufficient

In the wake of the Grenelle Environment Round Table in France, green technologies were seen as drivers of a new, more responsible kind of growth, particularly welcome at a time when growth was collapsing with the onset of the financial crisis in 2008. A policy brief published by the Centre d’Analyse Stratégique (a research-based advisory institution in France) stated: “The idea of green growth suggests the emergence of new needs and the realisation of specific new investments that will help to bring forth new markets”. Another policy brief by the same institution 136 looked at ways in which “greentechs” could drive French competitiveness. A report on strategic industries for the green economy published by the Commissariat Général au Développement Durable (French Commission on Sustainable Development) will be used as a basis for a French sustainable development policy. And in 2010, the Commission du Grand Emprunt (the National Loan Scheme Commission) recommended investing €2 billion in the bioeconomy (bio- and nano- technologies), €3.5 billion in the renewable energy sector, and €4.5 billion in the “La Ville de Demain” urban project (for energy efficiency, for example). Another €3 billion was earmarked for research into clean transport.

“Green growth” was the second solution put forward by the Commission. A favourite subject for market ecologists, green growth combines carbon finance and green technologies with a deregulated, highly competitive energy market. The European Commission predicts that the market for green goods and services will expand threefold between now and 2030, and that this will boost competition in Europe. Since 2008, investment funds have shown a particular interest in “cleantechs”, i.e., solar energy, bio-fuel and recycling businesses such as Naskeo, a company producing methane (a renewable energy source) reactors; Sky Water, a rainwater recovery specialist; and NovaWatt, which produces and buys electricity to sell it on when prices are at their highest during peak hours. However, the keen interest in these industries is set to diminish with further research into competitiveness: China has overtaken Europe in solar panels, for example, and cost-intensive green high-tech industries are hard to maintain during a crisis. And we should listen to Jacques

136. Competitive technologies at the service of sustainable development. Centre d’Analyse Stratégique. Policy Brief no. 276, August 2012.

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Ellul, whose work examined man’s fascination with modern technology and who claimed that “for sociological and economic reasons, the green economy means more than just technology”. This was echoed in the aforementioned policy brief published by the Centre d’Analyse Stratégique, which states that “these innovative technologies cannot be developed without popular consent. Technological progress arouses suspicion among the population. As well as growing concern over health, environment and social risks, new technologies are coming under increasing criticism for their lack of transparency and the undemocratic nature of their decision-making processes. This should encourage us to rethink current public and private decisionmaking practices. Innovation is vital from all angles, particularly in driving economic growth. But for innovation to succeed, the accompanying social and environmental issues need to be addressed as early as possible through public debate.” From an economic standpoint, the “rebound effects” are potentially significant, as economist Cedric Gossart clearly explains 137,“In this challenging dawn of the 21st century, industrial businesses and policy-makers see technology as a miraculous catalyst able to launch a new growth cycle, create jobs, absorb deficits and restore natural ecosystems. Regardless of the strategies deployed to decouple improvements in quality of life from the use of ‘natural services’ (energy, raw materials, waste disposal, etc.), new technologies have an instrumental role to play. Information technology in particular would appear to offer a vital means of ‘meeting the climate challenge’ by reducing energy consumption”. However, according to Gossart, there are three types of rebound effect. The first “direct” effect is the most obvious: when you reduce the energy consumed by a service, you also reduce the cost of that

service. The resulting cost savings enable more use to be made of the service. For example, between 1986 and 2003 in France, despite energy-saving policies, the average temperature of French homes increased from 19°C to 21°C. According to the US Energy Agency’s 2010 annual report, energy consumption and CO2 emissions per dollar of gross domestic product have fallen by more than 80% since 1980. However, this did not prevent the country’s total energy consumption and CO2 emissions from increasing, respectively by 25% and 165% over the same period, wiping out the benefits of a public awareness campaign on energy efficiency. The same effect was observed in the United Kingdom and estimated at 30% following the energy policies pursued between 2000 and 2010. The second type of rebound effect is an indirect effect that conversely, occurs after a drop in price, when consumers are happy with their level of use of the service. However, the money saved will be spent on something else, which itself leads to an increase in the flow of materials within society. This behaviour is described by Cédric Gossart as: “Spending less to have more: [...] The indirect rebound effect allows the money saved on heating to be used to consume more brown goods (music systems, TV, etc.)”. Mass use of electronic equipment leads to a third type of rebound effect, since the pervasive use of any innovative technology has structural consequences. So information technologies may, as a result of their potential for innovation, accelerate the obsolescence of goods and services: “the life cycle of these products is getting shorter, increasing the demand for raw materials to manufacture them”. We believe that co-construction can give our essential need for green technologies a more human dimension and can bring more meaning to our risk-infused societies.

137. Cédric Gossart, Lecturer at Télécom Ecole de Management (Evry), speaking to Le Monde Diplomatique in July 2010.



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3.2. Adaptation must dictate policy in all areas “Science doesn’t offer certainties; it offers possibilities. But science does say that there is no longer any doubt about climate change: the planet is getting warmer on account of human activity and emissions of fossil fuels into the atmosphere. Extreme weather conditions: cold, heat, drought and winds will increase, and all these elements will have diverse impacts on our activities. We must respond to this in multiple ways, and rethink infrastructure and the energy we use to cool down our homes and cars. Nature will have to adapt as much as humans. Flora and fauna will have to move to survive. And food will have to be produced in different places and in different ways. We are beginning to see the first signs that there is no time to lose. We have five, perhaps ten years, to take the decisions that will reverse this process. The next fifty years will bring considerable change. The question is whether we want to be active participants or merely passive spectators. We will need brilliant minds ready to innovate and able to think over the long-term but act in the short term. And we will need people who are prepared to take a clear stance on issues. Every organisation must prepare for this new environment, and every

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business must understand the risks and rewards associated with sustainable development.” This declaration by Will Day, an advisor to the British government and to PwC UK on sustainable development, reflects the creative thinking and political courage that is needed to adapt to these changing conditions. However, the Rio+20 Conference failed to give due importance to this critical future need. Paragraph 104 of the Rio+20 Final Declaration could have used the word “adaptation”. And yet it seems to believe in a linear – albeit uneven – path towards sustainable development, that does not stop to consider how humanity will adapt to its new living conditions: “We recognize that in order to achieve the objective of the Conference, namely to secure renewed political commitment for sustainable development, as well as to address the themes of a green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication and the institutional framework for sustainable development, we commit to address remaining gaps in the implementation of the outcomes of the major summits on sustainable development, to address new and emerging challenges and to seize new opportunities through

the actions enumerated below in this framework for action supported as appropriate through provision of means of implementation. We recognize that goals, targets and indicators, including where appropriate gender-sensitive indicators, are valuable in measuring and accelerating progress.” As elsewhere, this is a far cry from the lucid observations of the UN report entitled “Resilient People, Resilient Planet”, which recommends “building resilience through sound safety nets, disaster risk reduction and adaptation planning” as well as: 25. “Governments and international organisations should accelerate efforts to produce regional exposure and vulnerability assessments and appropriate precautionary strategies to prevent adverse impacts on social and natural systems that are fully focused on people’s needs, with priority accorded to the special needs of Africa, small island developing States, least developed countries and landlocked developing countries.

Climate change will have consequences in several areas: • environmental: deforestation, desertification, soil salinisation, rising sea levels, imbalance in the polar regions; • economic: reduced arable and living space, impact on the availability of energy, mineral, food and water resources; • health-related: natural disasters, extension and spread of zones affected by certain diseases; and • geopolitical: heightened tensions in already sensitive areas, increased risk of international conflicts, displacement and massive flows of climate refugees, excessive militarisation of certain strategic areas (straits, the Arctic). 138 Climate change poses a particular problem for water security. Threats to this resource and population growth raise questions about our ability to secure food and water for a population of 9 billion people, and increase the need to create a new water governance system together. Water security

26. Governments and international organizations should increase the resources allocated to adaptation and disaster risk reduction and integrate resilience planning into their development budgets and strategies.”

3.2.1. Climate change and water, food and human security We know that the impacts of the current changes will be more significant than in previous periods of warming due to higher population levels and increased urbanisation.

Given that water resources are already very limited in terms of availability and quality, the prospect of the world’s population reaching 9 billion by 2050 creates further uncertainty as to whether and how sustainable water use and water and food security can be reconciled. Water security is achieved when “every person has access to enough safe, affordable water to lead a clean, healthy and productive life,” 139 while ensuring that the natural environment is protected and enhanced.

138. French Ministry of Defence. Horizons stratégiques 2012. 139. Definition given by the Global Water Partnership in 2000 and by the UNDP.



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The 2012 MDG report states that 89% of the world’s population had access to improved drinking water sources in 2010, up 76% from 1990. Between 1990 and 2008, East Asia and North Africa saw particularly marked improvements in this area. This means that the MDG of halving the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water was reached five years ahead of the target of 2015. If the current trend continues, 92% of the world population will be covered by 2015. 140 Figure 17. Population (in millions) with or without access to a source of improved drinking water, 1990-2010 141

4 000

Urbain

Rural

130 653

3 000

other water-borne diseases, and killing 8 million people each year (ten times more than wars).

1 139

109 2 000 3 343

2 747 1 000

2 142

1 896

0 1990

2010

Sources améliorées

1990

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Sources non améliorées

These global averages nevertheless mask significant disparities between regions and countries, not to mention within countries. More than 40% of people without access to safe drinking water live in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, the overall figure of 900 million people who do not yet have access to drinking water is disputed insofar as it only takes into account people with access to treated water. In reality, 1.9 billion people have access to unsafe water (contaminated by chemical, physical or biological agents), while 1.6 billion people have access to questionable water. 142 Unsafe drinking water is the leading cause of mortality worldwide, causing diarrhoea, cholera, typhoid, malaria, dengue fever and

In 2025, 35% of the global population (representing more than 2.8 billion people in 48 countries) will be affected by water stress or water scarcity. 143 According to a UNDP report, 90% of the population in the Middle East and North Africa could be living in water-scarce countries by this time. 144 Some scenarios indicate that 5.1 billion people could be living under such conditions in 2050. 145 And the target of halving the proportion of people without access to sanitation is far from being achieved. Some 2.5 billion people have no access to sanitation (toilets and wastewater treatment). SubSaharan Africa and South Asia still have the lowest use of improved treatment plants. Eighty-five per cent of wastewater generated by human activities is therefore evacuated into the natural environment. Water security has improved, then, but there is still much progress to be made particularly in terms of the quality of the resource available to the poorest populations. Population growth and industrialisation will add to the difficulty in balancing economic water use and water and food security.

140. Millennium Development Goals Report 2012. 141. Millennium Development Goals Report 2012. 142. PwC. Water: Challenges, drivers and solutions. March 2012. 143. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 144. Comité 21 Prospective Committee. Temps de crise financière, économique, écologique et sociale : enjeux, contradictions, opportunités 145. UNEP. Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4): Environment for Development. Summary for Decision Makers, 2007.

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The green revolution of the 1960s significantly reduced malnutrition by stepping up genetic selection, the use of chemical inputs and increased irrigation in food-production systems.

scale in the 1980s at the IMF’s behest, even in countries that could not meet their food needs. Agriculture stopped being a sector in which governments and the private sector invested. At the same time, third-party countries started buying arable land to produce export crops. 149

According to the 2011 Millennium Development Goals Report, one sixth of the global population suffers from malnutrition. Globally, the proportion of people suffering from hunger has decreased, narrowing from 20% to 16% between 1990 and 2008 (985 million people). However, in absolute terms, an increase of 10% has been recorded since 1990-1992. 146 The poorest children have made the least progress. In 2009, nearly one quarter of children in the developing world were underweight, particularly in South Asia, due to a shortage of proper food and insufficient sanitation.

Cross-border investments in land are becoming widespread in response to the need of each country to guarantee its food security, the perception of land as a safe haven and the development of bioenergy crops. New investors, such as the Gulf States, China, India, North Korea and North African countries such as Libya and Egypt, have also emerged. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 15-20 million hectares of land have been rented or bought or were the subject of negotiations between 2006 and 2009.

Responses to the challenge of food insecurity and poverty eradication are intrinsically linked. Agriculture – virtually the only source of wealth in rural parts of developing countries – does not protect people from extreme poverty. Some 75% of the 985 million people who live on less than one dollar a day live in rural areas, and small landowners and farm workers represent two thirds of the billion people who suffer from malnutrition. 147

While these investments could compensate years of under-investment in the agricultural sector, they are also a source of instability (expropriation of farmland, relocation of farmers, etc.). Projects are underway to implement international regulations on international investments in land. These include the optional Principles for Responsible Agricultural Investment prepared by the World Bank in 2010 in collaboration with the FAO, and Voluntary Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure of Land, Fisheries and Forests endorsed by the Committee on World Food Security.

Food security

For many populations living in the South, food security is a daunting problem. Under Western influence, imports (rice and wheat) of US and European surplus production have become an important food source. They have undercut prices and discouraged local production by creating food dependency.148 Between 2006 and 2008, the rise in prices of agricultural products, partly driven by greater demand for animal protein and secondary demand for bioenergy, deprived populations in the poorest social groups of food and led to famine in the Sahel.

Alexandre Taithe 150 further notes that water policy is inseparable from energy and food issues. Acting on one of the three resources will inevitably affect the other two, thereby complicating reform of the uses of the resource in question. 151

This paradoxical situation is linked to an investment problem. Farm product export incentives started to be developed on a massive

146. G8 France 2011. New World, New Ideas, Deauville Accountability Report. G8 Commitments on Health and Food Security: State of Delivery and Results. 147. UNDP, Human Development Report 2006. 148. Grüneweld, F. Hot Spot ! Comment mieux réfléchir aux risques à venir. Diplomatie, December 2007/January 2008. 149. Husson Traore, A.C. Pour lutter contre la famine, investir dans l’agriculture. Novethic, 27 July 2011. 150. Researcher with the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS). 151. Press release from the European Commission. Rio+20: Towards a Global Green Economy and Better Governance, 20 June 2011.



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In the future, disputes over water use may intensify as a result of: • competition between food security and energy security, leading to an increase in biofuel production; • conflicts between food security and the fight against global warming, given that livestock farming is an activity that emits high levels of greenhouse gases; • getting governments to commit to cooperative strategies, when agricultural policies are founded on food self-sufficiency and the portion of public aid for agricultural development has fallen from 19% in 1980 to 5% in 2012; and • the volatility of agricultural prices, which is set to continue. The current model of global agricultural production therefore appears ill suited to meet the needs of a global population estimated at 9 billion in 2050. Although there is a consensus on this conclusion, the means of rising to the challenge are the subject of fierce debate. To deal with the dramatic situation of people vulnerable to soaring food prices in 2007/2008, the G8 and its partners committed more than USD 20 billion over three years. 152 The November 2011 G20 summit in France endorsed the recommendations of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) to improve the regulation and supervision of commodity derivatives markets. Limits can accordingly be placed on positions to prevent market abuse. The final declaration of Rio+20 reasserts the right of every individual to healthy food in sufficient quantity, as a corollary of their right not to go hungry. It also recognises that food security is a challenge and a global issue, and reaffirms the community’s commitment to address it, on behalf of present and future generations. 153

Human security The need to guarantee human security was first recognised in 1994 by the UNDP. The UN is aware that millions of men, women and children continue to live in a state of extreme vulnerability, under threat from civil war, organised crime, chronic poverty, environmental degradation, deadly infectious diseases and natural disasters. Whereas in the past security was equated with territorial security, the UN has broken new ground in placing individuals themselves rather than their membership of a given state at the heart of the concept of security. This notion was subsequently enshrined in the UN’s 2005 World Summit, which recognised “the right of people to live in freedom and dignity, free from poverty and despair. We recognise that all individuals, in particular vulnerable people, are entitled to freedom from fear and freedom from want, with an equal opportunity to enjoy all their rights and fully develop their human potential.” The notion of human security is increasingly reflected in the agendas of intergovernmental organisations such as the African Union, the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the League of Arab States (LAS) and the Organisation of American States (OAS). In May 2008 the UN’s General Assembly held an informal thematic debate on human security and in March 2010 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued his report on human security. A formal debate on human security was subsequently held at the UN’s General Assembly on 20 and 21 May 2010 and in July 2010, the General Assembly adopted by consensus its resolution on human security entitled “Follow-up to paragraph 143 on human security of the 2005 World Summit Outcome (RES 64/291).” As claimed by Michel Marcus 154, sustainable development will not work without human security: “Like all social, economic and industrial policies, security must be recast in the light of sustainable development, a concept that results

152. G8 France 2011. New World, New Ideas. Deauville Accountability Report. G8 Commitments on Health and Food Security: State of Delivery and Results. 153. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable. International Organisation of la Francophonie. 154. Michel Marcus. La Sécurité en amont du Développement Durable, in Encyclopédie du Développement Durable, 4D.

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from the pessimistic observations made about the medium- and long-term future of our planet and the governance of our societies. The realisation that measures with immediate positive effects may have wholly negative effects in the long term is new in the political decision-making process. Our current response to violence and crime has not yet factored it in. So imprisonment, for example, satisfies a short-term need but generates many social risks in the long term. It is high time that security became part of our long-term thinking: we should review our solutions in the light of our failures and obstacles and our collective and institutional obsession with insecurity. Security should take account of sustainable development. Reform of the institutional landscape and other new measures must guide us towards a stable future.” This concept has been taken up by businesses, and in 2011 the Paris-based Institut RSE 155 for corporate social responsibility (CSR) reporting launched an appeal for CSR to become a key aspect of public market regulation: “CSR must be given the status of a public policy so that governments encourage businesses to commit to sustainable growth models.”

3.2.2. The human factor: adapting businesses and companies There has often been a focus on mitigation policies to the detriment of the other possible response to climate change – adaptation. This must be implemented by individuals, companies, businesses and States. Adaptation: risks and opportunities for businesses Global warming will affect business activities and functions across the board. Not all businesses will be faced with the same risks and opportunities. Economic activities face differing levels of risk depending on their sector and their location: the sectors with the highest degree of exposure include insurance (particularly reinsurance), tourism, agriculture, forestry, public works, sea transport and healthcare. In terms of location, economic activities situated in coastal areas or flood zones, low-lying areas, mountainous regions or on permafrost are particularly exposed. Climate change also involves indirect risks such as geopolitical tension arising from issues such as climate refugees and access to fresh water. 156

155. Joëlle Brohier Meuter (Anakout CSR Consultancy, Singpore) and Patrick d’Humières (Institut RSE Management, Paris). L’état des politiques publiques de RSE dans le monde : panorama et tendances de l’incitation publique à la RSE. 156. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable. International Organisation of la Francophonie.



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Climate change can also be seen as a source of opportunity by generating geographic upheavals (in agriculture, tourism and economic development) or creating new needs in economic sectors (water and soft drinks, air conditioning and fans, renewable energy and energy efficiency). 157 A UNEP report 158 says that climate change offers competitive advantages to businesses worldwide: for 86% of companies, responding to climate change risks or investing in adaptation solutions poses a business opportunity. Adaptation measures taken at the level of states, local authorities or businesses would reduce the cost of climate change by taking climate risk into account in new infrastructure and investments, and by gradually adapting existing infrastructure to climate change. 159 For their company, the fight against global warming is also a veritable driver for job creation. A report published by Deutsche Bank entitled “Investing in Climate Change 2009 – Necessity and Opportunity in Turbulent Times” shows that in 2007, more than USD 148 billion was invested in green technologies, an increase of more than 60% compared with 2006. Adaptation to climate change also entails critical challenges for people and climate refugees.

Adaptation of populations and climate refugees Global warming gives rise to other problems that are not priorities on the agenda for international negotiations, such as climate refugees. In 1995, an estimated 25 million people worldwide were displaced due to natural disasters, famines and lack of natural resources 160 mainly from the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, Sudan, Kenya and Somalia. There are also many “environmental refugees” in China and India, largely due to development projects such as the Three Gorges Dam. 161 By 2050, it is estimated that 162 million people will be affected by rising sea levels and 50 million by drought and other climatic changes. 162 The IPCC estimates that in 2080, 3.2 billion people, or a third of the global population, will face water shortages, 600 million will not have enough food and 7 million will be experiencing coastal flooding.163 These upheavals raise many questions, not only about the status of climate refugees and the protection that international law should afford them, but also the status of states endangered by rising waters (continuity of existence, fishing rights, etc.).

157. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable. International Organisation of la Francophonie. 158. Adapting for a green economy: companies, communities and climate change, published by the UN Global Compact, the UNEP, Oxfam and the World Institute on 20 June 2011. 159. PwC. « Développement durable, aspects stratégiques et opérationnels ». Editions Francis Lefebvre. 160. Myers N. and Kent J. (1995). Op. cit. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. World Disasters Report 2001. UNHCR, 2002. 161. The Three Gorges Dam is one of China’s largest infrastructure projects. Crossing the Yangtze river at Sandouping in Hubei province, it is the world’s largest hydroelectric power station in terms of installed capacity. During the dam’s construction process 1.2 million people were displaced and 15 towns and 219 villages were submerged. 162. Myers N. Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B 357, 2002, p. 609-613. 163. IPCC (2007). Op. cit.

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More broadly, “climate change is a threat to peace and security”, as the UN Security Council noted at a meeting on 20 July 2011. The Security Council discussed the relationship between energy, climate and security for the first time in April 2007. But in the absence of consensus, it merely expressed its fears that “the possible adverse effects of climate change could, in the long run, aggravate certain existing threats to international peace and security”. However, Russia and the developing countries do not acknowledge that climate change is a security matter deserving the attention of the Security Council. 164 The International Organisation of la Francophonie says that “the adaptation and reinforcement of the resilience of populations – both proactive and reactive – require improved organisation, technology transfer and urban planning decisions in order to limit negative impact. Support for resilience is essential for the eradication of poverty and its financing is a priority for existing and future generations ” 165 These issues must be addressed at international conferences.

164. Brachet A. Conséquences du changement climatique : le conseil de sécurité de l’Onu divisé sur son rôle et son implication. AEDD news release, 22 July 2011. 165. Note analysing the challenges of the Rio+20 Conference. Mettre au monde une économie verte équitable et une gouvernance démocratique de la planète dans un cadre de développement durable. International Organisation of la Francophonie..



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Principle 8 of the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development states that it is necessary to reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. Twenty years later, this chapter of Agenda 21 is one of the areas of sustainable development in which the least progress has been made.

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3.3. Co-constructing new patterns of production and consumption The final declaration of Rio+20 highlights the profound disparities in levels and patterns of consumption between individuals and countries. It reaffirms the need for us all to promote sustainable consumption and production (SCP), calling for strong initiatives by developed countries. This objective will require the decoupling of resource consumption and production.

3.3.1. Decoupling economic growth from the consumption of resources The trend towards more uniform lifestyles as a result of globalisation, IT developments and reduced travel time can “give the illusion that Western lifestyles will become universal”. However, this prospect is impossible given that resources are limited. Indeed, according to UNEP’s 2007 report, “humanity’s footprint 166 is 21.9 hectares per person, while the Earth’s biological capacity is, on average, only 15.7 hectares per person.”

166. The ecological footprint is the measure of human demand for the “ecological services” provided by nature. More specifically, it measures land that is biologically productive and the sea area needed to produce the resources that an individual, a population or an activity consumes and to absorb the waste generated, given current techniques and management of resources. This surface is expressed in global hectares (gha), or in hectares whose biocapacity is equal to the average biocapacity.

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SOURCES: UNEP, WWF, INED, NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER, NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY

Figure 18. Global ecological footprint: number of planet Earths needed 167

Developed land Fishing areas Forests Pastureland Cultivated land Carbon footprint

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2030

This shortage is reflected in rising commodity prices and increased extraction costs. Good quality, inexpensive fields and deposits of some essential resources such as oil, copper and gold are already starting to run out; as a result, the amount of fuel and fresh water needed to extract these resources is increasing. Considerable mineral resources can also be obtained from the sea, such as ores, oil (an estimated 100 billion barrels) and gas, especially in the Arctic Ocean. These resources, whose exploitation can now be envisaged thanks to technological progress, are highly prized and could lead to international tension and damage to the environment. 168 In many areas of the world, geostrategic and sociopolitical clashes are linked to the presence of mineral resources of considerable economic value. These precious resources represent development opportunities for countries, and as such are often the root of significant economic and geopolitical pressure.169

These pressures highlight the need to step up the integration of sustainable development within the extractive industries. Extracting resources has both positive and negative impacts locally and nationally, which raises the issue of the (un)fair distribution of costs and benefits. Due to the rapid globalisation of these industries and the increase in investments in developing countries, conflicts are proliferating between local populations and companies involved in extracting resources. 170 For rare earths, production of 100,000 tonnes per year “is barely keeping up with demand, which is thought to exceed production by 40,000 tonnes per year, posing a price and scarcity problem,” says François Heisbourg, Special Advisor to the French think-tank Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique. These metals are vital for the production of hybrid and electric cars, offshore wind farms and compact fluorescent bulbs, but also for traditional applications. 171 China has a virtual monopoly on the production of these 17 metals, 172 and accounts for 90% to 97% of global production. Their extraction is also highly toxic and polluting owing to certain radioactive compounds and carcinogens, such as thorium and uranium. In view of the pending depletion of resources, UNEP has warned that if nothing is done to “decouple” the rate of economic growth from the rate of natural resource consumption, the volume of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass consumed annually by humanity could reach an estimated 140 billion tonnes (three times current levels) by 2050. In developed countries, consumption of these four key resources averages 16 tonnes per person (and can even exceed 40 tonnes). By way of comparison, in India people consume an average of four tonnes per capita per annum.173 174

167. G. Van Kote. « L’économie verte déraille à Rio ». Le Monde 19 June 2012. 168. Comité 21 Prospective Committee. Temps de crise financière, économique, écologique et sociale : enjeux, contradictions, opportunités. 169. Grüneweld F. Hot Spot ! Comment mieux réfléchir aux risques à venir. Diplomatie, December 2007/January 2008. 170. LCM Trebilla. Report on the social actions of a large mining group. March 2008. 171. Goeken V.R. Terres rares : la production peine à suivre la demande. AEDD, 11 March 2011. 172. Scandium, yttrium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium. 173. Global resource consumption per capita and per annum was between 8 and 10 tonnes in 2000, roughly double that of 1900. In industrialised countries (which account for one fifth of the world population), the average rate for the same year was nearly twice the global average and four to five times higher than in the poorest developing countries. 174. Humanity can and must do more with less. United Nations Environment Programme website, 12 May 2011.



PwC / The Planetworkshops | 77

Figure 19. Ecological creditors and debtors

Figure 6.59 Ecological creditors and debtors

Ecodebt Footprint more than 50% larger than biocapacity Footprint 0–50% larger than biocapacity Ecocredit Biocapacity 0–50% larger than footprint Biocapacity more than 50% larger than footprint

Insufficient data Source : WWF 2006a

For UNEP’s International Resource Panel, “improving the rate of resource productivity (‘doing more with less’) faster than the economic growth rate is the notion behind ‘decoupling’ (...). That goal, however, demands an urgent rethink of the links between resource use and economic prosperity, buttressed by a massive investment in technological, financial and social innovation, to at least freeze per capita consumption in wealthy countries and help developing nations follow a more sustainable path.” 175

Indice : 1980=100

Figure 20. Relative global decoupling trends ( 2.75

2.9

3.44

Guinotte and Fabry (2008)

Ozone depletion

Stratospheric O3 concentration, Dobson Units (1DU = 10µm ozone)

> 276

283

290

Chipperfield et al. (2006)

Local and/or global level Atmospheric aerosol loading

Overall particulate concentration in the atmosphere, on a regional basis

-

-

-

-

Biogeochemical cycle (phosphorus and nitrogen)

Quantity of P flowing into the oceans, Mt P/yr

< 11

10.3

1

Mackenzie et al. (2002)

Amount of N2 removed from the atmosphere, Mt N2/yr

< 35

121

0

Galloway et al. (2003, 2008)

Global human consumption of water, (Km3/yr)

< 4,000

2,600

415

Gleick (2003) ; Shiklomanov and Rodda (2003)

Percentage of global land cover converted to cropland, % (Mha)

< 15

11.68

5

Klein Goldewijk (2001); FAO (2008); Ramankutty et al. (2008)

Extinction rate in number of species per million per year, E/MSY

< 10

> 100

1

Pimm et al. (2006); Mace et al. (2005)

-

-

-

-

-

Global freshwater use Land system change

Biodiversity loss

Chemical pollution Not yet quantified

Source: Röckstrom (2009a)

5. J  ouvet P. A. and de Perthuis C. La croissance verte : de l’intention à la mise en œuvre. Les Cahiers de la Chaire Economie du Climat, 15 June 2012.

104 | Appendices | 2012

Table tracking the Millennium Development Goals in 2011 6 Africa Goals and Targets

Northern

Asia

Sub-Saharan

Eastern

South-Eastern

Southern

Western

Oceania

Latin America & Caribbean

Caucasus & Central Asia

GOAL 1 | Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Reduce extreme poverty by half Productive and decent employment Reduce hunger by half

low poverty

very high poverty

high poverty

high poverty

very high poverty

low poverty



moderate poverty

high poverty

very large deficit in decent work

very large deficit in decent work

moderate deficit in decent work

very large deficit in decent work

very large deficit in decent work

very large deficit in decent work

very large deficit in decent work

moderate deficit in decent work

large deficit in decent work

low hunger

very high hunger

moderate hunger

moderate hunger

high hunger

moderate hunger



moderate hunger

moderate hunger

high enrolment

high enrolment

high enrolment

moderate enrolment



high enrolment

high enrolment

GOAL 2 | Achieve universal primary education Universal primary schooling

high enrolment

moderate enrolment

GOAL 3 | Promote gender equality and empower women Equal girls’ enrolment in primary school Women’s share of paid employment Women’s equal representation in national parliaments

close to parity

close to parity

parity

parity

parity

close to parity

away from parity

parity

parity

low share

medium share

high share

medium share

low share

low share

medium share

high share

high share

low representation

moderate representation

moderate representation

low representation

low representation

very low representation

very low representation

moderate representation

low representation

high mortality

low mortality

low mortality

moderate mortality

low mortality

moderate mortality

low mortality

low mortality

GOAL 4 | Reduce child mortality Reduce mortality of underfive-year-olds by two thirds

low mortality

GOAL 5 | Improve maternal health Reduce maternal mortality by three quarters *

low mortality

very high mortality

low mortality

moderate mortality

high mortality

low mortality

high mortality

low mortality

low mortality

Access to reproductive health

moderate access

low access

high access

moderate access

moderate access

moderate access

low access

high access

moderate access

GOAL 6 | Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS

low incidence

high incidence

low incidence

low incidence

low incidence

low incidence

intermediate incidence

low incidence

low incidence

Halt and reverse spread of tuberculosis

low mortality

high mortality

moderate mortality

high mortality

moderate mortality

low mortality

moderate mortality

low mortality

moderate mortality

GOAL 7 | Ensure environmental sustainability low forest cover

medium forest cover

medium forest cover

high forest cover

medium forest cover

low forest cover

high forest cover

high forest cover

low forest cover

Halve proportion of population without improved drinking water

high coverage

low coverage

moderate coverage

moderate coverage

moderate coverage

high coverage

low coverage

high coverage

moderate coverage

Halve proportion of population without sanitation

moderate coverage

very low coverage

low coverage

low coverage

very low coverage

moderate coverage

low coverage

moderate coverage

high coverage

moderate proportion of slum-dwellers

very high proportion of slum-dwellers

moderate proportion of slum-dwellers

high proportion of slum-dwellers

high proportion of slum-dwellers

moderate proportion of slum-dwellers

moderate proportion of slum-dwellers

moderate proportion of slum-dwellers



moderate usage

low usage

high usage

low usage

high usage

high usage

Reverse loss of forests

Improve the lives of slum-dwellers

GOAL 8 | Develop a global partnership for development Internet users

high usage

low usage

high usage

The progress chart operates on two levels. The words in each box indicate the present degree of compliance with the target. The colours show progress towards the target according to the legend below: Target already met or expected to be met by 2015.

No progress or deterioration.

Progress insufficient to reach the target if prevailing trends persist.

Missing or insufficient data.

* Red colour refers to insufficient progress (i.e. MMR has declined less than 2 per cent annually). For the regional groupings and country data, see mdgs.un.org. Country experiences in each region may differ significantly from the regional average. Due to new data and revised methodologies, this Progress Chart is not comparable with previous versions. Sources: United Nations, based on data and estimates provided by: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; Inter-Parliamentary Union; International Labour Organization; International Telecommunication Union; UNAIDS; UNESCO; UN-Habitat; UNICEF; UN Population Division; World Bank; World Health Organization—based on statistics available as of June 2011. Compiled by Statistics Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.

6. Source: MDG website: http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/



PwC / The Planetworkshops | 105

||

Glossary BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India and China

Conservation of Nature

CBD: Convention on Biological Diversity

MDG: Millennium Development Goals

CDM: Clean Development Mechanism

NGO: Non-governmental organisation

ETS: European Trading System

OECD: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

FAO: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization GDP: Gross domestic product IEA: International Energy Agency ILO: International Labour Organisation IMF: International Monetary Fund IOSCO: International Organization of Securities Commissions IPCC: International Panel on Climate Change IUCN: International Union for

106 | Appendices | 2012

UN: United Nations UNCSD: United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development UNDP: United Nations Development Programme UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WHO: World Health Organization

||

Figures

Figure 1. Life expectancy by WHO region and income group

16

Figure 2. Rate of primary school enrolment

17

Figure 3. Urban population by main geographic area

28

Figure 4. Urban agglomerations with more than 10 million inhabitants in 1975 and in 2005, and projections for 2015 29 Figure 5. Availability of water resources on Earth

35

Figure 6. Mean species abundance: cause of losses in the years to 2030 37 Figure 7. Trends in temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, 1850-2010 39 Figure 8. Trends in temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, 1850-2010

40

Figure 9. Per-capita CO2 emissions by area

40

Figure 10. Energy consumption by sector

41

Figure 11. Breakdown of primary energy sources

42

Figure 12. Freshwater use

44

Figure 13. Change in water withdrawals and the global population, 1950-2025 45 Figure 14. Trends in global population and meat, fish and seafood supplies from 1992-2005

46

Figure 15. Estimated world waste production and collection for 2006

48

Figure 16. Trends in global greenhouse gas emissions by sector between 1990 and 2004 51 Figure 17. Population with or without access to a source of improved drinking water, 1990-2010

70

Figure 18. Global ecological footprint: number of planet Earths needed 77



Figure 19. Ecological creditors and debtors

78

Figure 20. Relative global decoupling trends (

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