Targets – S O L A R C Y C L E S [PDF]

S O L A R C Y C L E S With John Hampson

Targets My targets are derived from what occurred under similar circumstances in history. Therefore they are an average and actuals can stray some way from averages, so caution is warranted. Nonetheless, there are compelling reasons for why they may represent the best ‘guide’ going forward. The equities mania into 2014/5 rivals the biggest manias of all time in terms of valuation, leverage, allocations and sentiment. Not only that but those biggest manias of all time share a similar topping pattern that may be playing out again.

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/latest-stock-market-charts/12j3/)

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/latest-stock-market-charts/12j4/) Source: Financial-Spread-Betting

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/latest-stock-market-charts/12j5/)

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/latest-stock-market-charts/12j2/)

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/latest-stock-market-charts/12j1/) Think of similar waves of crowd psychology playing out each time. Post ‘second chance’, declines were swift and deep: Dow 1929: 3 weeks 44% declines Dow 1937: 8 weeks 38% declines Dow 1968: 8 weeks 18% declines Dow 1987: 2 weeks 34% declines Nikkei 1989: 6 weeks 27% declines Nasdaq 2000: 3 weeks 35% declines SP500 2011: 2 weeks 18% declines They average out at 30% declines over 4.5 weeks. Continuing with history as our guide, we ought then to expect a subsequent slower partial retrace of those falls lasting around 4 months. So hard falls averaging 30% over several weeks followed by a 50%+ retrace of those falls averaging several months, before we tip conclusively into a fully fledged bear market, like this:

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/targets/13j1/) There is a seasonality to stock market peaks and troughs in a year, due to the seasonality of geomagnetism.

(https://solarcycles.net/?attachment_id=9629) Based on this, we might look to around March/April 2016 as a bottom for the post second chance waterfall decline – if that is where we are in crowd psychology – followed by a slower retrace wave into mid-year. Remember, this is just a guide based on history and seasonality. Biotech has been the mania within the mania, or poster boy. History suggests the full mania should be retraced.

(https://solarcycles.net/screen-shot-2015-09-21-at-21-06-18-3/) Now the longer term. Cross referencing valuations with solar cycles and demographics we get this prediction:

(https://solarcycles.net/?attachment_id=9620) Underlying source: DShort Whilst gold should do this:

(https://solarcycles.net/?attachment_id=9578) Making the 2011-2015 gold bear a cyclical bear within a secular gold bull 2000-2025 (or thereabouts). The Dow-Gold ratio fits in like this:

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/targets/dow-gold-ratio-2/) And the Dow, something along these lines:

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/targets/dow2025/) The waves and price points should not be taken too literally. The key point is that by demographics the developed world is set to follow Japan’s 1990s/2000s model: a long drawn out secular bear market. By solar cycles we should see a speculative mania peak in gold at the next solar maximum (circa 2025) together with a major stocks bottom. However, this is all assuming the game remains ‘fair’ and central banks do not drastically distort market mechanisms, because it is a sure thing that they will respond with even more unorthodox and desperate tactics should an approximation of these forecasts play out. Prior to the next solar max comes the next solar minimum, which historically has been the scene of bottoms, panics or crises. So circa 2020 we get a major low in equities before the deeper one of around 2025. In short, these may represent the ebbing and flowing of cyclical bears and bulls within an overall long term secular bear.

(https://solarcycles.net/?attachment_id=9649) Underlying Source: Sergey Tarasov

(https://solarcycles.net/?attachment_id=9650) By demographics, the future looks like this:

(https://solarcycles.net/?attachment_id=9584)

(https://solarcycles.net/?attachment_id=9583) This suggests the global economy and stocks/housing markets will continue to struggle beyond 2025 and all the way out to mid-century. On such a long timescale, developments could feasibly make such predictions redundant. Hope for a more positive outcome could be seeded in (1) major paradigm shifts from technological evolution (2) a shift to pro-active immigration policies in the major nations to alter demographics or (3) countries with positive demographics such as India and Brazil become much more dominant in the global economy to offset the others. However, the kind of deflationary depression or long period of negligible growth predicted by demographics that may first come to pass historically gave rise to unrest and war. Additionally the world is forecast to be moving into another grand solar minimum, which also historically resulted in low/negative growth and war. Furthermore, the end game for debt is monetisation, which is where we now are. Recession, deflation and runaway debt is a poisonous mix.

(https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/targets/12j1-2/) Source: Michael Roscoe In short, something much more devasting may be seeded in these themes and a long period of difficulty for the world could indeed be unfolding. Photo source: National Geographic

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Report this ad Tagged 1929, 1987, Biotech, dax, Demographics, dow, gdp, Gold, nikkei, q ratio, Russell 2000, Solar Cycles, targets, valuations

2,331 thoughts on “Targets” 1. yogi5 says: January 14, 2016 at 12:40 pm Brilliant even-handed analysis as ever. Thanks John. If the game remains ‘fair’. Wonder what they’re going to be talking about in DAVOS next week. REPLY John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 4:36 pm Thanks Yogi REPLY 2. John Li says: January 14, 2016 at 2:14 pm JH, can you please clarify the post-second chance for Nasdaq 2000? “Nasdaq 2000: 3 weeks 35% declines” REPLY 1. John Li says: January 14, 2016 at 2:16 pm My bad, I see that you did post a graph. Why was 4/2000 second chance when it is off the peak? REPLY John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 4:37 pm Hi John. I did post a chart previously showing a similar progression on the Nasdaq, but it doesn’t fit as well with the rest so I left it off this post. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 14, 2016 at 5:46 pm The reason why I asked is because I suspect that China is now in the “long bear market” phase, given the drop of margin debt from 2.2T to 1.0T. That is not to say that the “long bear market” cannot be violent like in 2008, but the fuel will be corporate defaults rather than margin calls. The biggest of your flash crashes (1929, 1990, 2000) were all in-line with demographic peaks, and since it is China’s demographic peak this time around, I suspect that China will set the pace. 3. Valley says: January 14, 2016 at 4:18 pm Really insightful post, John. Thanks again. I agree with your logic, however given the rapid advance in tech of all kinds most of which have not yet been implemented (self driving this, ultra low energy that, etc) some of which involve novel materials that may replace current uses, could the next 10 years be less of a market down move and more of a sideways market in real terms all the while cost of energy and other input costs (labor, raw materials) staying tame? As far as AU being the lifeboat you may be right, however, tulips were a life boat once, as were goats in some places and times. One new development in mining technology (which is still very pick and shovel) could do to the AU price what modern ag has done to the cost of food. REPLY John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 4:38 pm Thanks Valley, and your ideas certainly possible. REPLY 1. John says: January 14, 2016 at 9:40 pm Hi Valley, What do you about the market tommorow and next week? I think we will go down one more time and the turn will be next week mo/tuesday after that we will see a good rally.. Good luck.. REPLY 1. John says: January 14, 2016 at 9:46 pm oeps think again… haha REPLY 2. Valley says: January 14, 2016 at 11:22 pm Very close to what I am thinking. Maybe bottom middle of next week. However, I will be considering staying long in case we retrace above 2000. So, PALS is negative Fri, Mon, Tues, Wed but price is way low. So for me it is a coin toss. Seasonally 10th, and 11th trading day of month is when 401K plans are buying mid month, so maybe sell off will be after Monday the 11th. REPLY 1. John says: January 15, 2016 at 9:11 am Thanks Valley, Mahendra is bullish after the 20th: We do strongly recommend taking aggressive positions during the last 63 hours of this cycle, or before the 20th of January, because on the 20th of January Mercury will rise in the east which is a positive astro move for the market. 2. Kent says: January 18, 2016 at 5:22 am Valley, check out the book, 4th Turning by Stauss and Howe. We are going to have a revolution over the next 10-15 years, hopefully peaceful. Even peaceful, it will be tough. REPLY 4. Jegersmart says: January 14, 2016 at 4:21 pm Just FYI, I am out of my SPX longs now – took the chance to close both in profit at 1910, so possibly not worth the risk at this point. We may go higher though, will have to wait and see….although I suspect we will go down take a look at 1850ish soon. imho J REPLY 1. purvez says: January 14, 2016 at 5:41 pm Jeger, please may I ask, why are you expecting the market to decline to 1850 after such a strong move upwards today? Thx in advance. REPLY 1. jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 5:42 am Hi P I should have defined “soon” I guess – I would expect within the next month:) J REPLY 5. purvez says: January 14, 2016 at 5:17 pm John H, wonderful wonderful analysis. This was the kind of thing I was hoping, nay EXPECTING, from your post. I need more time to go through it all but the different perspectives and their corresponding targets will help me to ‘follow’ the path of this bear. Bravo!! REPLY John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 5:45 pm Thanks Purvez REPLY 1. purvez says: January 14, 2016 at 6:30 pm BTW I don’t know if you did anything regarding the slow upload on the mobile platform, but I can confirm that things have improved significantly. I’ll keep monitoring for a while further and let you know if there is any residual problem. Thx for everything that you do for us. REPLY 1. geno0010 says: January 14, 2016 at 6:43 pm Purvez – On previous comments section I wrote to ya. There is always time to find opportunities to trade the market, but never enough opportunities to spend time with loved ones. You made the correct choice. I’m still long from Monday and have been adding. Will stay long for awhile yet. John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 6:44 pm I didn’t do anything I don’t think, but good to hear 2. purvez says: January 14, 2016 at 7:59 pm Geno thx for the thought. I’m glad to have had the opportunity to spend time with my mum. At 90 she’s prone to repeating and for muddling things up but even that is quite delightful. Hope I’m half as good as her IF I ever get near that age. Also very good to know your trade came off!! However with this schizophrenic market I would be inclined to grab my profits and run. GL with your trades. I’ve just wound up as I have 2 days left here before returning home and have a round of H’byes to do still. 6. Barry says: January 14, 2016 at 6:19 pm Sitting on hands, waiting to start layering on new short positions…. The day is off to a good start though… REPLY 7. alphahorn says: January 14, 2016 at 6:42 pm I like John’s analysis, but I believe this will prove to be the shake out phase when all is said and done. Perfect touch of the wave [4] triangle lower trend line, now the bounce for (D). REPLY John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 6:45 pm You’ve made a lot of good calls in the past, Alphahorn, so I shall keep it in mind. REPLY 1. alphahorn says: January 15, 2016 at 12:42 am It’s so very tempting to be short as hell right now, it’s taking all my willpower not to be long REPLY 1. alphahorn says: January 15, 2016 at 12:44 am oops that should have said, “it’s taking all my willpower, not to be short and to be long.” 8. geno0010 says: January 14, 2016 at 6:53 pm Here are the daily swing bottoming charts I posted yesterday REPLY John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 8:05 pm Thanks geno REPLY 9. GM says: January 14, 2016 at 7:05 pm John, we think along very similar lines, using history as our guide. A pleasure to read your thoughts, many thanks. For those fence-sitters (Alphahorn), this is a great read: http://trader-moe.com/no-sitting-on-the-fence-here-youre-either-bullish-or-bearish/ REPLY 1. geno0010 says: January 14, 2016 at 7:22 pm There’s no reason a person can’t sit on the fence and play the daily swings. In fact, it’s prudent to do so. Why put all your eggs in one basket when there’s no need to? REPLY 2. purvez says: January 14, 2016 at 8:03 pm Huh GM? I thought Alphahorn said he was bullish unless a particular level was taken out. Surely that’s just ‘good’ trading? REPLY 1. GM says: January 14, 2016 at 10:11 pm Fair point purvez, but it will be interesting to see who is right and who is wrong. Oddly, I still am on the fence myself re new all time highs for US markets, it’s a possibility after a decline due to capital flows. REPLY 1. Gary says: January 15, 2016 at 12:38 am GM, I assume you are short the market? Otherwise, why call AH out? Please, do tell… John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 8:05 pm Appreciated GM

REPLY 10. Phil White says: January 14, 2016 at 7:50 pm Welcome back John. This is all very swish the new look site ) REPLY John Hampson says: January 14, 2016 at 8:05 pm Thanks Phil!

REPLY 11. geno0010 says: January 14, 2016 at 8:43 pm I think we can get long Ferrari for 7-10% gain while risking only 3% with a 40.55 SL John – Do you want us to keep comments geared toward indices or are individual stock postings okay with you? REPLY John Hampson says: January 15, 2016 at 4:46 am Happy for the chat to be about whatever, within reason. REPLY 1. jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 5:46 am Gen How do you come to that “buy zone” and the SL? Looks to me like it fell out of that “triangle”, didn’t backtest then did a bit of a bearflag thing and is now in limbo? Or are you guesstimating the end of the bear flag formation (if that is what it was) by the length of the “pole”? Or something else??:D Thanks J REPLY 1. geno0010 says: January 18, 2016 at 5:39 pm Hey Jeger – sorry for the delay. The buz zone is calculated using Fib Support areas and time. I set the SL using the ATR.

REPLY 12. eclectic says: January 14, 2016 at 10:34 pm Richard, regards Delta, may I ask what solution you are working off of?

REPLY 13. Barry says: January 14, 2016 at 10:59 pm First layer of shorts re-loaded toward the end of the day here… Feel like I’ve f-up about all that I could have so far in 2016, and yet, it’s already been a really nice return so far this month… Just reducing some exposure here, as well as looking for higher prices to build a larger short position… Just working my strategery to make a few bucks…..

REPLY 14. jlisi6 says: January 14, 2016 at 11:44 pm Outstanding analysis, JH. I was one of those who thought (back in early October) that the Dow would break marginal new highs before turning down. You were right and I was wrong (although the SPX did get to within about 1% of the old high – an unusually steep retracement). You referenced a caveat that the game remain “fair” – no central bank intervention. I’ve suggested that the very reason for a bear market this time around would be a loss of faith in the Fed, as it has been the primary driver of the last four or five years. There is a psychic component to the coming events that needs to be appreciated. When there is extreme fear, traditional measures of technical analysis (momentum and sentiment) begin to fail – that is the only way a decline of the magnitude and speed predicted can happen. The markets may react violently in the short run to any Fed intervention, but in the end, I suspect the Fed will end up being the reason for the crash, not the deus ex machina savior. Any thoughts, JH? REPLY 1. Barry says: January 15, 2016 at 3:26 am Good comment… That’s a reason I’m already starting my scale-up selling… Ordinarily, I’d think I’m too early, starting at too low of a level… My indicators are telling me we’re going higher shorter-term, but the truth is I’m thinking it’s just “safer” to err to the side of being short this market, and using a great deal of caution in having faith in any buy signal… Just not convinced that signals will work out as they “should” in more normal times…. Another way of saying no cajones for this guy right here, I suppose…. hahaha REPLY John Hampson says: January 15, 2016 at 4:43 am Makes sense to me. The mantra for the mania has been central bank policy trumps all, when they are in fact fairly impotent. REPLY 1. GM says: January 15, 2016 at 5:26 pm ‘The mantra for the mania has been central bank policy trumps all, when they are in fact fairly impotent.’ Well put. They are in fact impotent. Investors should repeat that 10 times a minute until they grasp it. Even old Bluestar is writing about the Fed being ‘out of bullets’, when it always just a myth (he thinks they had talk powers and policy powers, both BS IMO). Just human herding instinct caused yet another bubble. REPLY

15. p says: January 15, 2016 at 4:28 am Not sure of time zone here (8:28 pm pst)

REPLY 16. pooz says: January 15, 2016 at 4:33 am Test 20:34 pst

REPLY 17. jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 5:47 am Just FYI that I went long SPX again, I already have short exposure elsewhere so if anything it is a kind of hedge, which may morph into something else…. J

REPLY 18. Peter_ says: January 15, 2016 at 6:30 am New blog top notch, tick tick… 15th Jan already, options expiring. Russell 2000 confirmed the bear 4 days ago and every day since. The chart fail patterns we have seen bring a need for new chapters in analysis. Is this very bad or less bad? Who knows? Its just bad, that’s all I can surmise so far. Unless the Fed has interfered with the mass of the Higgs boson of course.

REPLY 19. Peter_ says: January 15, 2016 at 7:30 am Now this makes very good straight forward sense to me… http://www.investing.com/analysis/equity-market-musings-380046 REPLY 1. Red Dog says: January 15, 2016 at 7:56 am One thing they are missing here comparing the 1940’s is we now we have massive debt loads in all sectors. That all needs to somehow wash out which could be nasty. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 15, 2016 at 4:36 pm With the erudite and highly informative observations made now and for several years by our host, along with the highly unusual chart fail patterns that have recently come to pass, it is surely not clever to expect good things to happen from here as things stand. The basic premise of the financial system has been first corrupted (ref Clinton) then used for the personal gain (for the few). Then the core was broken (ref Lehman). The repair efforts have created a false wealth effect (we are only now told this was intentionally so) but moreso has enabled even more personal gain (for the few) with a pious belief that it serves the greater good to do so. No attempt to return to the basic premise of the system (e.g. undo Clinton) has been made. Therein lies the folly of it all. Now it loses the confidence of the major participants, which has been eroded by time. But the unworthy few will most certainly retain their status at a constantly elevating level. (All they need to do is read this blog, go short big time and buy gold big time) Science fiction morphs into ugly facts in your face. So what you gonna do? Sit on the loo? This behaviour has been wrong from the outset. The bastardised system will not fix itself. REPLY 1. GM says: January 15, 2016 at 5:37 pm Whilst I agree with much of what Peter_ says above, in fact the problem is much bigger. This bubble has been expanded since the world went off ‘gold’ at Genoa in 1922 (enabling the Roaring 20s bubble). It has enabled the great socialist expansion/experiment for nearly 100 years. The masses love it, so much free stuff! But like JH, I have grave fears about what lies ahead as it bursts. So hard to see the developed world avoiding wars, civil unrest and revolutionary impulses. Hard to see that those impulses will be mis-directed by marxists-in-waiting toward the wealthy and the productive, rather than toward government itself, or the system. In summary, FUBAR sums it up succinctly, and gold alone won’t save you: it’s physical location and your own will be crucial. This period could easily last for 40-60 years, before sense is restored. I’m currently liking Iceland and Morocco for their values and culture.

20. jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 7:37 am Thanks Peter!

REPLY 21. Specie says: January 15, 2016 at 1:04 pm The last time the S&P 500 broke support like this was Thursday, September 6th of 2001. 911 happened the next Tuesday

REPLY 22. Jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 1:54 pm Did the S&P breakdown cause 9/11 or did someone know it was going to happen? What a coincidence, especially if you look at airline stocks around that time lol…. J REPLY 1. Specie says: January 15, 2016 at 2:28 pm “…did someone know it was going to happen?” you’re pretty funny J REPLY 1. Pulp says: January 15, 2016 at 5:10 pm Here is one argument that it was a myth: http://www.911myths.com/html/put_options.html

REPLY 23. Krish says: January 15, 2016 at 2:33 pm Small longs on dax and US indices. Fall is overdone but I’m quite sure the top is in. Expecting a rebound of 4-5% before the falls continue into mid year.

REPLY 24. Jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 2:35 pm I have no opinion either way, but it would be a helluva coincidence no?:) J

REPLY 25. John Li says: January 15, 2016 at 2:42 pm Looks like Nicolas will never return again. Not a short term call, but it seems ATH is out of the picture.

REPLY 26. Specie says: January 15, 2016 at 3:29 pm jegersmart’s guy looks a litte spastic barry’s guy looks mean krish’s looks kinda like a pirate john li’s looks uncertain my guy looks kinda smart with his monocle REPLY 1. Barry says: January 15, 2016 at 3:32 pm I ~am~ mean! LOL REPLY 2. purvez says: January 15, 2016 at 7:37 pm Aaah you all need to beware my ‘guy’. Looks downright angry and hungry. That’s me: a pussycat in a tigers uniform. These artificial intelligence avatars are too damn clever!!

REPLY 27. Barry says: January 15, 2016 at 3:31 pm I told the little dude, a couple of months ago, that he was about to go on another “vacation”… I’m sure he didn’t believe me… Oh well… Sad to say, I could have traded this better as well… Trying not to dwell on this, but if on Jan 1, I’d have closed my laptop, not looked at one single chart, and not made ~any~ changes to my portfolio, I’d be up over $100k from where I am today…. Just played golf every day and ignored this crap…. *big sigh* REPLY 1. John Li says: January 15, 2016 at 3:50 pm As much as the market is down and near support, the VIX is really not responding. We are half of where volatility was on 8/2015! This shows the downside potential medium term even if we get a bounce now. REPLY 2. Jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 4:05 pm Well, it could be worse – for a couple of months last year if I had left my computers off WITHOUT any open positions I would have been better off……c’est la vie…… J

REPLY 28. Barry says: January 15, 2016 at 4:35 pm Well, the stock market is collapsing, but fortunately for me, I’ve hedged it by buying gold stocks…. Oh wait…. REPLY 1. GM says: January 15, 2016 at 5:31 pm ‘Wait’ will work Barry, patience may be required. Obviously as a short-term hedge I commiserate, and gold miners historically tend to get shaken about at these times, before hitting clear waters and a strong tail wind. (Low oil priced a real boon for the sector). REPLY 1. Barry says: January 15, 2016 at 6:04 pm Hi GM; It was kindof a joke, but as we all know, jokes are only funny if there’s some truth to them…

REPLY 29. Specie says: January 15, 2016 at 5:05 pm from what i can tell the number of new lows are lagging the number from August that would signal a likely short term bottom if they don’t expand a lot by the close REPLY 1. Pulp says: January 15, 2016 at 5:19 pm The big question is how will it open on Monday morning? Will there be a rescue over the weekend? Would you leave short positions open? REPLY 1. Specie says: January 15, 2016 at 5:28 pm Hi Pulp, you actually get an extra day, monday is a holiday and the ptb are notorious for using long weekends to support the markets publicly and not so much

REPLY 30. Jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 5:45 pm I took 65% profits on short positions now as we approach the 1860 and 1820 support zones (on SPX), along with 50% of the rest of the puts. I have a scout long on Oil (CRU) after today’s crash – long Potash, Soybeans and Corn, Gold but slightly underwater after I took profit on the main tranches 2 days ago, and I have calls from 2020 to 2140 on SPX mostly Feb and a few March……at the moment these would seem more or less worthless….lol. I would look at some of the refiners though, they look pretty weak and breaking down and I would have shorted them today but wanting to stay out whilst the market works out where from here. Once Crude gets going, many refiners shares will probably feel it. I am more or less done so good weekend all! J

REPLY 31. Barry says: January 15, 2016 at 5:57 pm Yeah, I’m not worried…. I’m sure that 1998 analogy is gonna kick in anyyyyyyy moment now, and we’re gonna roar off to new highs….. Where are those guys anyway…. Regardless, would think we’ll see higher prices than where we are right now, at some point going forward, but jeez…. My TZA hedges were a lifesaver today, but I’m long crude, and at this rate, the gas stations will be ~paying us~ to fill our tanks by Spring….

REPLY 32. Pulp says: January 15, 2016 at 6:30 pm The Dax still hasnt’ hit the August low.

REPLY 33. jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 6:32 pm I added some scout positions on QQQ and GDX as well, now I really am done for the week. All the best to you. J

REPLY 34. Barry says: January 15, 2016 at 7:53 pm Covered about half my shorts, and am now back to net long… Emotions aside, looks like a rally “from here” looks easier than a continued move lower… To me, anyway… Clearly, not strong conviction here, but still, taking a stand.. [video src="https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CYx4TkeU0AAbeS1.mp4" /]

REPLY 35. jegersmart says: January 15, 2016 at 8:03 pm Chances of a bounce are elevated, thats not to say we wont go lower over the coming weeks. I am certainly not going short close to strong support….and haven’t as per earlier posts:) J

REPLY 36. GM says: January 15, 2016 at 8:37 pm John H, I was surprised that you expect stocks to bottom in 2025 which is likely to be a solar maximum, as I’d assumed stocks tended to rally into the maximums. Are you expecting the manic rally to be in gold for the 202-2025 period? My view: stocks hit a secular in 2020, but then gold and stocks rise together for many years, driven by the Western collapse (gold) and Eastern/Silk Belt advances. I also expect the EZ to scrape through, with most of its sovereign debt gone, via default, or settled post-GOMO using official gold reserves. Small governments should remain, and reasonably open markets (ordo-liberal approach). The risk everywhere is totalitarian outcomes and war/civil war. Thanks. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 15, 2016 at 9:29 pm I second this view, with the caveat that if Nikkei 1990/2000 is the analog, Shanghai might be hitting bottoms in 2025. Global stocks would surely have recovered from their lows by 2025. Hussman suggests 0% returns, which if true, can be made by -50% and then +100% over the next 10 years, which means we are off our lows even if we go nowhere. REPLY John Hampson says: January 16, 2016 at 5:39 am The q ratio chart in the post above shows there have been 3 solar maxima where stocks made bottoms and commodities/gold made a peak. Then by demographics I see us in a Japan style long secular bear, which fits with gold enjoying a long secular bull. Doesn’t mean we won’t get cyclical stocks bulls within that. So thats how I calculate it. REPLY 1. GM says: January 16, 2016 at 1:04 pm Thanks John. It’s surprising that we have 3 maximums where stocks crash, and 5 where stocks are high. But…16 and 17 could be compared to 23 and 24 in terms of the bubble bursting for stocks. So maybe 18 and 25 will be similar too? As a gold owner, I hope so! If it helps anyone, here’s a post I did with some charts on long-term gold miner cycles, and we appear to have a lengthy cycle up dead ahead: http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/martin-armstrongs-tense.html Also, fascinatingly, I found this chart last year, the writer has re-posted it only this week, and it seems to extrapolate the bottom in bond yields/shares (based on a cycle/mirror) to around-about….wait for it…2025. http://www.marketanthropology.com/2016/01/equity-market-musings.html It’s nice when a few different factors and views coincide, certainly gives one confidence one is on the right track. G.

37. Peter_ says: January 15, 2016 at 8:50 pm The bounce from any support is quite normal. But normal is not often seen nowadays – correction – make that for some decades already. Now I am not sure that anything has ever been normal. But nonetheless things are appearing to be even less normal nowadays. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 16, 2016 at 9:48 am A few factors are slightly unfavorable toward any significant bounce here, viz: volumes still increasing, momentums still slowing, TRINs peaked a week ago, last new moon inversion, upcoming full moon bearish, DOW closed below 16000, plus failed ending diagonals not yet at their “normal” baselines for “normal” (i.e. not failing to give new high) behaviour. But maybe a dismount into a hand stand will win a gold medal. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 16, 2016 at 11:41 am And now Caldaro comes to the party with target of 1100 for SPX “in a year or so”. Thats like getting the reels mixed up in the cinema and giving the kids a horror instead of a cartoon. From crazy bull to crazy bear – poof!

REPLY 1. pimaCanyon says: January 19, 2016 at 3:40 pm yes, Caldaro’s approach sometimes misses the major turns. That’s because he goes with the most probable count based on his studies of using objective criteria to determine wave structure. I haven’t taken his course, but my guess is that he uses things like RSI, MACD, Stochs, etc. to objectify waves (based on statistical analysis of how waves have behaved in the past) and then creates the count from there. The problem is the outliers, the exceptions. His charts usually just has one count, sometimes recent price movement is market tentative. This works for smaller degree counting, but for large degree he posts the most probable count. There’s always the chance that one of the lesser probabilities will rear its ugly head, and the problem there is that it may take a while to confirm that lesser probability which is what happened in this case. Therein lies the problem with OEW.

38. scott says: January 15, 2016 at 11:29 pm posted this left translated cycle blog from 2011 about 2 weeks ago with SPX around 2060. today 1/15/2016 marks 22 weeks from the 8/24/2015 low. we now have a lower low. Spiral calling for an esf move to 2012-2040 in the next 2-4 weeks. SPIRAL has NAILED many of the short terms cycles of late. http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/06/left-translated-cycles-are-bad-news.html

REPLY 39. Allan says: January 16, 2016 at 1:18 am Long WE, all global indices approaching crucial support that needs to hold or all hell could break loose.. What are the chances that the bean counters launch a covert operation on Monday headed by the number one “baked bean” himself Mario Draghi, that sees follow through to the US Tuesday? REPLY 1. Allan says: January 16, 2016 at 1:22 am Why does my avatar looked befuddled???………….lol kinda fits that post. REPLY 2. GM says: January 16, 2016 at 2:15 pm I was hoping you’d leave Mr Draghi alone Allan!! Here’s a view (to which I subscribe) about why the Euro-concept will destroy socialism and big banks too: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/26/robert-mundell-evil-genius-euro When the time comes, you will be pleasantly surprised at the actions of the SRB and the ECB. Meanwhile, leave Mario alone! http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-draghi-idUSKBN0O809P20150523

REPLY 40. Valley says: January 16, 2016 at 1:19 am PALS SPX next week: Tides: Low on Monday, rising Tuesday to Friday Moon phase: Full Moon on 24th, Saturday; bullish Wednesday to Friday Declination: Equator crossing 15th to North, bullish Tuesday to Friday Distance: Perigee 15th, bearish all week as lunar distance is now increasing Seasonals: Bearish all week post opex January Planets: post Mercury conjunction 14th, was sell off due to this? Quickly rebounding is typical after deep sell off on or within days of this conjunction. Summary: Was long and wrong last week. What will next week bring? Don’t know but hope (not a strategy) that SPX sell off will retrace back to the 50 day MA before falling further. REPLY 1. 17.6 years stock market cycle says: January 18, 2016 at 12:20 pm Hi Valley, I was long and wrong also last week, not surprising as we use similar inputs. I was expecting a turn around 11th Jan. No real damage as FTSE was only 100 points below the low of 11th but it was a hairy ride. I am looking for a bounce this week. One question:- I take increasing lunar distance to be positive and decreasing as negative. Less lunar effect at apogee, more at perigee. I was wondering why you have it the other way around. Thanks, Kerry REPLY 1. Valley says: January 18, 2016 at 8:30 pm Hi Kerry, my research shows that if you buy 4 calendar days after apogee, and sell at the open of perigee or trading day before if on weekend, you gather much of the gains over the last 18 years. Greater lunar distance is cause of low energy, low tides. Closer lunar distance, higher energy, high tides. This energetic effect seems to have effect on equity market in US. REPLY 1. 17.6 years stock market cycle says: January 20, 2016 at 12:01 pm Thanks Valley, understood 2. ricksbiz says: January 21, 2016 at 10:54 am Hi Kerry your cycle matches with danielcode second deviation (your 2.2 and 4.4) the bottom of 09 bottom of 2011 bottom now it took 3 attempts and it broke threw S&P 500 please watch 2016 the first 5 days http://www.thedanielcode.com/display.php?nav=news You can start at the 16 minute mark. Cheers REPLY 1. 17.6 years stock market cycle says: January 21, 2016 at 1:28 pm Thanks Ricksbiz

41. Allan says: January 16, 2016 at 1:29 am The Hang Seng looks positively SCARY!… It’s pretty much sliced through ALL remaining significant support and let’s not forget where the 87 crash began. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 16, 2016 at 2:28 am Are you saying the 87 crash started from Hang Seng? REPLY 1. Allan says: January 16, 2016 at 6:28 am John, it obviously wasn’t the cause but it is where the big downward momentum began so it set the tone heading into European trading and then the US. REPLY 1. GM says: January 17, 2016 at 7:18 pm Hey Allan, Martin Armstrong has an offer for you in a recent post: ‘I can read a book on how to do brain surgery. Would you like to be my first patient?’ Lol, poor guy, must be under some serious stress.

42. Peter_ says: January 16, 2016 at 7:19 am Bankster injustice strikes again – http://tinyurl.com/j3m2zqr No mention of the perps or their personal gains from illegal behaviour, instead the taxpayer is the perp yet again. Drug lords and terrorists got nothing on this hellhole of a oligarchic system.

REPLY 43. Mat says: January 16, 2016 at 9:48 am John, Just like to say that I love your new website, it looks clean, clear and concise. Great work Mat REPLY John Hampson says: January 16, 2016 at 10:18 am Thanks Mat!

REPLY 44. GM says: January 16, 2016 at 1:19 pm One for purvez, John and anyone interested in a wide view, a site I discovered last year, but lost touch with, worthy of a regular read IMO: http://www.marketanthropology.com/ PS My avatar is pretty much spot on for me and my mood, although my head is not triangular.

REPLY 45. Peter_ says: January 17, 2016 at 4:27 pm And its OK to be crooked, to dupe people & make money from it big time – its the American way, and you can now be brazen about it. Who of any importance actually cares anyway……….. http://tinyurl.com/z6c6l8e REPLY 1. GM says: January 17, 2016 at 7:14 pm The ongoing death of civilisation, evident in many Western countries.

REPLY 46. Peter_ says: January 18, 2016 at 5:58 am Japan joins the bear brigade… http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/ REPLY 1. GM says: January 18, 2016 at 11:15 am You’ve been a busy boy! REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 18, 2016 at 2:10 pm Its been a terribly lonely journey so far, but there are signs of overwhelming company with scant space.

REPLY 47. siggy says: January 18, 2016 at 11:50 am GM – A few quotes from a very old book. Morocco or Iceland may not be far enough away. “Also, there will be signs in the sun and moon and stars, and on the earth anguish of nations not knowing the way out because of the roaring of the sea and its agitation. People will become faint out of fear and expectation of the things coming upon the inhabited earth, for the powers of the heavens will be shaken.” “They will throw their silver into the streets, and their gold will become abhorrent to them. Neither their gold or their silver will be able to save them…..” REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 18, 2016 at 2:24 pm Teach a man to fish and he will take all your rods and then all your silver and then all your gold so that you may eat well. Then he will take your house and charge fish for rent and hire out to you your own rods. And the circle of life will continue. REPLY 2. GM says: January 18, 2016 at 7:33 pm siggy, I’m thinking some farmland might be useful. Time to focus on getting the most out of every day, as ‘normal times’ are soon to be consigned to history for a very long while I fear.

REPLY 48. siggy says: January 18, 2016 at 2:36 pm Some times Cycles make really really deep troughs….It’s hard to predict the end of the world isn’t it….because it only happens once.

REPLY 49. Allan says: January 18, 2016 at 4:46 pm GM, I’m looking forward to how Martin A is going to talk his way out of his 23k DOW or higher calls?………….AND not to mention his calls for gold to crash under $1k, just like he told everyone to avoid buying Au back in 1999 until it had ceashed under $200………DOH! He’s sucked in soooooo many over the years. I too was one many years ago but eventually I saw through it REPLY 1. GM says: January 18, 2016 at 7:31 pm He’s quite clever (sneaky) as he always hedges his bets, and then veers off onto the time aspect rather than price. I’m guessing you won’t volunteer for his brain surgery training programme? REPLY 1. Allan says: January 18, 2016 at 8:45 pm Lol, I don’t think so. As for sneaky, that’s one word. Cunning is another. He’s made a career out of it, not to mention millions of followers JH is all over him as far cutting edge market analysis goes. MA just has one very very BIG trumpet thatt he likes to blow incessantly……..ABOUT FRICKEN EVERYTHING!

REPLY 50. geno0010 says: January 18, 2016 at 5:41 pm Valley – I got long last Monday too, and added on Wednesday and Friday. Positions aren’t too far underwater, but definitely didn’t time it very well. Should’ve stuck to my prediction of a bottom coming January 19-22 The arrows on the chart are my buys/sells since November 2015 REPLY 1. geno0010 says: January 18, 2016 at 5:46 pm My account is about 15% long right now. I like to keep my trades at 7-10%, so I’m a little overweight by getting in too early. REPLY 2. jaze says: January 18, 2016 at 8:23 pm Question: Based on what technique have you forecast a turn by Jan 19-22 ? Thanks for an explanation. Best, Jaze REPLY 3. Valley says: January 18, 2016 at 8:35 pm Thanks, Geno. There may be a big sell off Tuesday morning, or Wednesday morning according to my calculations. I am staying in until Friday for sure. REPLY 1. John says: January 19, 2016 at 9:05 am Hi Valley, Did you short last week wednesday and do you stay short till friday before full moon? I sold my AEX calls today .. Good luck. REPLY 1. Valley says: January 19, 2016 at 5:19 pm No, I was long last week and plan to remain long into this Friday. 2. John says: January 20, 2016 at 5:19 pm Very nice calculation Valley I bought calls today on the AEX I hope I m not an early bird in this drop? What do tou think of next week a rebound? Until now the market repeats itsellf likeJan 2008 so if this is a guide this year will be a big rollercoaster. REPLY 1. Valley says: January 20, 2016 at 10:53 pm PALS is bullish until Friday’s open, somewhat bullish until Friday’s close, and mixed next week. I don’t know if some news will happen this weekend that causes a big rally. Seems like early February may be the low of this sell off.

51. scott says: January 19, 2016 at 1:51 am time 2 bounce. bulls at lowest level in years. left hand 22 week trough to trough 8/24 – 1/15 achieved lower lows. looking for 2040 spx before bradley turn date 2/5/16. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-18/bulls-decade-low-oversold-bounce-imminent-jpm-repeats-sell-any-rips REPLY 1. TechNoir says: January 19, 2016 at 4:12 am Not trying to say you’re wrong, in fact you could very well be right and a good bounce could be coming right up. But taking a look at that link you posted previously regarding cycles it seems the 22 weeks from trough-to-trough is just the median estimate. Quoting directly from http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.ca/2011/06/left-translated-cycles-are-bad-news.html?m=1 “Now in order to understand how a cycle is translated you first have to determine the average duration of the cycle. In our case we are going to focus on the intermediate degree cycle in the stock market. That cycle averages 20 to 25 weeks trough to trough. The median being 22 weeks.” So this means the trough could potentially still be coming up anywhere in the next few weeks, according to Savage. REPLY 1. pimaCanyon says: January 19, 2016 at 3:20 pm It all depends on where you decide the last daily cycle low (DCL) was. Most believe it was at the mid-November low, in which case we’re right in the timing band for a DCL to have hit on Friday. Savage believes it was the mid-December low which, if he’s correct, would have stocks headed lower for another 2 weeks, maybe longer. There are valid arguments for which date you choose to mark as the last DCL, so… flip a coin? REPLY 1. GM says: January 19, 2016 at 5:40 pm Savage had to delete his old blog, so wide of the mark so often. He’s the antidote to CB printing.

52. Jegersmart says: January 19, 2016 at 8:56 am Rather than trying to predict the future, these guys and certainly anyone trading should look at the risk-reward ratio and go with the flow. If you have a fairly deep correction with oversold levels and positive divergences which stops near long term support – the chances are quite good that there is some sort of bounce. How high the bounce no one knows, but there are targets to shoot for where price has found support, resistance and so on above. These guys who try to predict the future through blogs and I assume through subscription services in some cases(?) are really just preying on people’s hopes – that someone will be found that can “see the future”. This will be a fruitless search as has been shown time and time again. Basically, everyone and every system is wrong quite often. To expect anything else is imbecilic imho. And just to be clear, I am not referring to anyone in particular here – I am talking in a general sense. J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 19, 2016 at 2:44 pm My problem is coding truisms like this. If it is indeed true, a computer would be able to handle this “going with the flow”. And yet for every example I see where stocks bounce at any oversold indicator, there is a counter example such as 1987 or 1929. The distribution might not be a coinflip — one can be right 4 times but be very wrong on the 5th time. Every trade is a prediction of the future. When I see quotes that say not to predict, but to react, they usually really mean to follow some sort of a trend. REPLY John Hampson says: January 19, 2016 at 4:42 pm ‘Every trade is a prediction of the future’ – I agree REPLY 1. purvez says: January 19, 2016 at 5:20 pm John Li, whilst you may be right 4 times and VERY wrong the 5th time, provided you have ‘executed’ your trades with due diligence i.e. sensible stops to get out at and targets to take money off the table then surely your win ratio to lose ratio must improve. No? In fact anyone who trades successfully MUST do that.

REPLY 53. Peter_ says: January 19, 2016 at 4:06 pm Charting is such sweet sorrow, but now it departs so that it may return maybe tomorrow.

REPLY 54. Jegersmart says: January 19, 2016 at 4:10 pm Well, this is why I never speak with “certainty”. All I said was that that under the conditions specified above the “chances” of a bounce are elevated in my experience. I am wrong (at least in terms of getting stopped out) about 62.x% of the time over the last 12 months, but I never get it “very” wrong because I use stops – which I would recommend every trader does. If you look at historical charts back to 1929 or even 87 when I was a young teenager, I cananot say whether the patterns and/or behaviour was the same as they are since I have been trading (later 90’s). For example, I went long QQQ at 100.22 with a stop of 97.9. This is not because I am bullish, it is just that when price halts with oversold and divergent conditions my experience tells me it is not a time to go short unless support breaks on volume, this does not mean that a bounce is certain or of significant size, but because support was not violated there are market participants that are more likely to be buyers at a time like this. Even if for a short time…..Another time I could decide not to take the trade at all….. Why would you want to try to make a computer do this? You have something better to do??:) J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 19, 2016 at 8:07 pm Not preaching any style, but computerized trading is what I do full time.

REPLY 55. Allan says: January 19, 2016 at 5:23 pm I mentioned the other day how this rebound(if you can call it that), looked totally differently on the intraday charts compared to previous rebounds of the last 7 years. It keeps resonating within me something that John said over 12 months ago and that is that once the second chamce had come snd gone and the waterfall declines had begun, bounces would be short and shallow and fail to find any traction. And that is exacly how this appears to me at present, like I said particularly in the intraday charts. The BTFD appears to be well and truly dead and those playing the rebound trade could be in for much more than they bargained at some point. REPLY John Hampson says: January 19, 2016 at 5:33 pm It does indeed have that character at the moment Allan. Just one thing: in 2008’s waterfall declines there was a neg feedback loop with economic and corporate domino developments. Might need something similar here to seal the waterfall deal (problems coming to light). REPLY 1. Allan says: January 19, 2016 at 5:45 pm Thanks John. Indeed something to seal the deal could come anytime. That aside. This looks very very tempting. How cheap can this get?? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24PALL&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42300613594

REPLY 56. Jegersmart says: January 19, 2016 at 5:32 pm Indeed, this is a distinct possibility so please ensure that you are using stops at all times in any case. J

REPLY 57. Jegersmart says: January 19, 2016 at 5:49 pm Of course, the market is not going to make it easy in terms of stopping at support and bouncing so that everyone who wants to can get in and ride the wave – so again in this scenario there are only really 3 options available to us: 1. Go long 2. Go short 3. Stay out In my experience, “waterfall declines” occur when there is catastrophic stress in the market, and/or fear due to that or other serious developments. It doesn’t happen out of thin air where everyone just decides one day to sell. So, from my point of view and experience, price action will dictate and either hold or break through support. If the 1850 and 1820 breaks on good volume I will be stopped out before that and I will normally wait to see whether the break is a fake – and then go from there. As a trader, I am not going to sit around and wait for 4-10 years hoping for waterfall declines to make some money:) – I try to make money whichever way the market seems to be going on a “swing basis”. That is to say I rarely have positions that are open for less than a few days, and quite often for weeks or months. There are reasons why markets never go in a straight line, whether you decide to try to profit from this or not is up to the individual…. imho J REPLY John Hampson says: January 19, 2016 at 5:59 pm A wise approach

REPLY 58. GM says: January 19, 2016 at 7:26 pm I was out most of the day, but what a weak bounce, and the subsequent falls must be of concern to bulls. I think we’re at that point now where everyone will sell due to a variety of fears. Down to 1700 ES within days maybe? My query to the board today please: Any E-wavers (Peter_) like to show a chart of HUI long-term for me/us please? It’s broken a long-term support level today, even as gold holds up. I am sniffing capitulation again, possibly as the broad markets decline imminently. Time to deploy capital…..? How many capitulation can there be in a bear market? Also, Allan, I have read and seen that at the gold bottom back in 99-2000, it was miners that lead gold upward. With miners falling, do you reckon they will drag gold back down, or is it a false break-down maybe? I feel the next month or two will see the bottom in both gold and its miners anyway, just pondering the moves that may lie ahead. One certainly needs patience in these gold miners, and in gold. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 20, 2016 at 5:49 am Gold miner index got bad apples dragging and distorting… http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/ REPLY 2. Peter_ says: January 20, 2016 at 6:34 am These are the better performing gold miners, with Harmony way out in front and wildly volatile. 1 Harmony 2 Sibanye 3 Goldfields 4 Anglogold 5 Agnico

REPLY 3. Allan says: January 20, 2016 at 10:35 am GM as I have mentioned before my best leading indicator for gold, better even than the XAU or HUI is the ASX gold sector which is currentlly in a massive basing pattern with many individual miners already having broken upward months ago. If it had only been a few miners that had moved I wouldn’t be so convinced that this was a base pattern and not a continuation pattern, however there are many many miners that have moved significantly off their lows and are in the beginning of bull moves. The problem with the ASX gold ndx is that it is heavily weighted with a few majors that are currently holding it down as they have not quite shifted up gear yet, but it will break out of its base pattern.very soon once these begin to move as well. REPLY 1. GM says: January 20, 2016 at 11:31 am Thanks Peter_ and Allan. I will take my junior miner positions soon….I am expecting gold & its miners to have their final lows within 2 months, as equities have a final (weak) rally. I could be wrong and miss the bottom. We will see.

REPLY 59. purvez says: January 19, 2016 at 9:03 pm Mad as this sounds, we are heading towards 15,500ish on the DJIA before this thing reverses. However when it does reverse it will retrace a HUGE amount and MAY even challenge new ATH. I’m back in Blightey but too tired to post a chart. Hope to do that sometime in the next day or so. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 20, 2016 at 11:01 am The chart requires 15370 or less to confirm the bear. SPX has now signed up to join with Europe on this project. We look for Nasdaq and Dow as essential partners to ensure success, but how can they refuse such an invitation? Once everyone has joined up there will be a preparation phase and possibly a delay waiting for promises, but the interest will increase and then we will be on our journey into the bowels of the dragon that must be slayed. REPLY 1. purvez says: January 20, 2016 at 3:01 pm Peter_ according to the IG charting service the intraday low on the 24th August’15 was 15253. However since the drop to ‘whatever’ on 24th August was a 3 waver then all I am expecting is a Flat or Expanded Flat before it reverses. As it currently stands both the rise to the early Nov high and the drop from there are also 3 wavers. So at least on the DJIA the triangle interpretation that Alphahorn was talking about is still alive. However I believe the current down wave is ‘b’ of ‘B’ with another UP (‘c’ of ‘B’) to come AND THEN…. a final 5 waves down ‘C’ which will convince everybody that the Bear has arrived. I know this is hard to follow without a picture so I’m hoping to have one soon. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 20, 2016 at 3:45 pm CFD chart I presume. EW best applied to underlying, being the basis. Futures can also generate different highs and lows that can give conflicting counts at critical junctures. Best EW results (and all indicators) arise with instruments that are always enjoying high numbers of competing traders. So far the failed ending diagonals (many indexes, many of which are quite imperfect) have played out. But with dramatic failures of these patterns where they constitute the entire 5th primary we are in uncharted territory where small chance exists that nothing will surprise. However I will eat your hat if we see any new ATH in at least the next 3 years. 2. purvez says: January 20, 2016 at 7:56 pm Sorry but I’m holding on to my HAT for dear life. It’s gone miserably cold in Blightey and I am NOT giving up my hat to ANYONE FOR ANY REASON. However I would not at this point rule out an ATH during this year. If it doesn’t happen by then then I suspect you’ll be spared from attempting to eat my hat.

60. Red Dog says: January 19, 2016 at 11:17 pm Good read http://www.evergreengavekal.com/for-what-its-worth-3/

REPLY 61. Voltaire says: January 20, 2016 at 2:42 am This comments section is hard to find with the new design. REPLY 1. GM says: January 20, 2016 at 11:32 am It’s the same as before isn’t it? I think it’s called ‘nested threads’? What do you think is different out of interest? REPLY 1. Voltaire says: January 23, 2016 at 3:16 am The whole site has been redesigned for starters. There seems no link to this comments section that is obvious. I only found it as John put a link in a comment somewhere.

REPLY 62. Allan says: January 20, 2016 at 10:39 am And so the Fed selloff continues with no sign of reversal……..they gambled and lost! REPLY 1. GM says: January 20, 2016 at 11:27 am Always and ever impotent: Gary Morgan @MonetaryP

Izzy/Larry haven't looked at the US yield curve for a while. Markets set rates, not the Fed. And they're going down. twitter.com/izakaminska/st… 6:06 AM - Jan 20, 2016

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REPLY 63. Allan says: January 20, 2016 at 11:08 am The gold and silver markets are the only markets I can think of where demand rises and prices get hammered. Not just plateau or slump….but get HAMMERED!….but that’s all just normal market behaviour right?………. http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/gold-import-bill-up-12-reaches-35-bn-in-2015-116011600181_1.html

REPLY 64. GM says: January 20, 2016 at 12:32 pm Strange lights in the sky! Sell, panic! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/12107960/Five-planets-to-align-in-spectacular-celestial-show.html Some time in 2005 it last happened, wonder what the date was, and whether markets did anything unusual then? Crash today maybe?

REPLY 65. Pulp says: January 20, 2016 at 1:28 pm The Dax tested the August low this morning.

REPLY 66. Peter_ says: January 20, 2016 at 2:46 pm Watching the $USindex for imminent drop to kick start $gold http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/ REPLY 1. Allan says: January 20, 2016 at 5:06 pm Peter………..lol

REPLY 1. Allan says: January 20, 2016 at 5:14 pm Britain has produced the greatest number of comedy duos and comedians in history IMO REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 21, 2016 at 9:22 am It appears that psychoanalgesia is best performed using the hypnoreflexogenous protocol. I think I should try that approach. John Hampson says: January 20, 2016 at 3:24 pm Finally all happening. Only thing missing: golds acceleration – coming next. REPLY 1. Allan says: January 20, 2016 at 4:44 pm Yes John absolutely. As in 2001 it took a little while for gold to warm but once it did….well the rest is history! I can’t help but think that if this gets bad, really bad, that US rates go negative. If that be the case then what will those “gold haters” say that over the years have rubbished gold for not paying a “dividend”? Let’s see how they feel about gold when having to pay the banks to park their $$$$$$$!!!!!! This is gonna be fun REPLY 2. ricksbiz says: January 21, 2016 at 10:18 am Hi John great site With gold it seems to be following the property cycle (Philip J Anderson) Gold reached a high at the bottom of the property cycle which was 4 years after stock market crash. 2011. If this is so then around 2018 give or take a year gold should rally as the property cycle takes a breather. Then it could go back down and as the second part of the property cycle will peak at 2025. 2025 gold will go up again. Just a guess. REPLY 1. ricksbiz says: January 21, 2016 at 10:38 am Here’s some stuff http://www.phillipjanderson.com/videos/

REPLY 67. eclectic says: January 20, 2016 at 3:35 pm Everyone seems to think the miners lead the metals; and I can’t argue with that assertion based on history. FWIW, I wanted to report my observation that on August 26/31 in 1976 when gold bottomed at circa $101, the miners bottomed at the same time. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don’t see that the miners led the metal when a new bull phase began.

REPLY 68. alphahorn says: January 20, 2016 at 3:38 pm Speaking of targets, I set a target for this correction back on June 7th, see: See my post from June 7th here: https://alphahorn.wordpress.com/2015/06/07/weekend-update-139/ we are approaching my 1820 target now. Whether or not that level holds is the key to the next 18 months of trading, in my opinion. https://alphahorn.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/spxdaily10.png?w=640

REPLY 69. purvez says: January 20, 2016 at 4:07 pm I hate to be a party pooper here but the action since early Nov does NOT feel ‘waterfallish’. The 24th August action would be a much better fit. All I am suggesting is that everyone keep open the possibility that we are near a ‘bottom’ with quite a BIG surge upwards. At least on the DJIA it just looks like either a ‘Flat’ completing OR part of a Flat. The thing with ‘Flats’ is that they retrace ALL the way back to their origins. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 20, 2016 at 8:16 pm Here(DJIA) and elsewhere I see a falling double zigzag after the diagonal so far, with this the last leg of it. Expecting baseline zone bounce, with most of those indices that show diagonals being beyond that point already. But not holding breath due to the abnormal (never been seen before) nature of the fail pattern across so many examples. My gut goes for 50% of the waterfall move from 1st Jan is now in. REPLY 1. purvez says: January 20, 2016 at 9:24 pm Peter_ do you have a target for this bounce? Since I’m calling for a ‘Flat’ I can only say that it will come close to the recent highs although that is just ONE of the possible outcomes. It could of course carry on much further…..hence my call for a possible challenge to the ATH. The ONLY thing that worries me about this decline….is that it’s not over. My trend line from the 13 Jan intraday low to the 15th Jan intraday low has not been violated and since this is an Ending Diagonal I’m expecting it to go beyond the trend line (a throw over). REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 21, 2016 at 6:28 am FWIW: SPX 1900 then ranging to 1860 for some degree of indicator resets with upcoming full moon having a say for commence of next downleg. The delayed action of commercial selling will meet with the bounce expectations from the specs. The ATH I look for is with the volume for the upturn bringing the reconnect of mega bankster leverage for a few months to levitate all the dead cats in prep for the global funeral march into 2017. But no expectations of any sustainability above SPX 1900. 2. purvez says: January 21, 2016 at 1:14 pm Thx Peter_ I could live with the first half of that scenario. I’m not much of a ‘long term’ guy. I tend to ‘look after the pennies’ and have found that the ‘pounds generally follow’.

70. Allan says: January 20, 2016 at 4:51 pm As bearish as I am on the bigger picture I feel a bounce coming….a BIG bounce. The Davos World Econoimic Forum has a surprise or two up its sleeve I suspect. REPLY 1. scott says: January 21, 2016 at 2:28 am Tom demark was on at noon today w/ Dow down 550 points and stated he thought we were at an interim low with a 5-8% reflex rally imminent then lower lows. we rallied 400 dow points after he was on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQE23n_hEm4

REPLY 71. Richard Isaacson says: January 21, 2016 at 2:41 pm An “Intermediate” rally in Energies and Stocks is underway. If it last for longer than five trading days then it might have legs and be a Medium or Long Term rally. REPLY 1. GM says: January 21, 2016 at 4:39 pm Nic’s back, hello Nic! Seems only a week or two ago you were predicting the same stuff, but from $35 oil? Guess that weird system you advised JH to read about is to blame eh? I think you’ve suffered (yet another) big credibility gap down. REPLY 2. Valley says: January 22, 2016 at 4:32 pm Good call! REPLY 1. GM says: January 22, 2016 at 6:27 pm It wasn’t really a call was it, more of an observation of what was already happening, followed by an ‘if this, then that’. He’s not as confident as he was a few weeks back, for obvious reasons.

REPLY 72. Jegersmart says: January 21, 2016 at 5:25 pm I would be very careful with the energy sector at this point, a lot of stresses building up there. If they start rallying without crude flying 4% in one day then the case would obviously be stronger, but I am staying away from that sector for now. I think we will see 20usd crude before the summer……either way, I have been trading CRU both ways a bit recently and although profit has been made I am not sure it has been worth the risk…..:) I am keeping an eye on 5 refiners though, that could be an interesting short when the time comes….. Good luck though as alays. J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 21, 2016 at 5:46 pm What about stocks? Which of the three options?

REPLY 73. jegersmart says: January 21, 2016 at 7:03 pm I think lower prices ahead but we go up and sideways for a week or two……I am looking for something around 2000 on SPX potentially……. Just my 2 cent guess….. J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 21, 2016 at 7:47 pm I am looking for a meltdown today and maybe early tomorrow to mark tradable lows. REPLY 1. Valley says: January 21, 2016 at 7:54 pm Have a hunch we rally into next Wednesday’s fed announcement, and then sell off. Low maybe first few days of February. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 21, 2016 at 8:02 pm All certainly possible. Pre-FOMC rallies are common. However, I like to see more capitulation, rather than the weak activity yesterday. 2. John says: January 21, 2016 at 9:00 pm If that is true the next Mercury will be a low again Mecury max elong west 6/2 ? 3. Valley says: January 21, 2016 at 10:33 pm “theplanetstoday”.com has interactive planet positions. You can see Merc. position at any time in future. 2. jegersmart says: January 22, 2016 at 9:10 am I think we had some tradable lows just recently….

REPLY 74. Peter_ says: January 21, 2016 at 8:58 pm False break for $USindex it seems. Chart now untidy. Sleepwalkers sometimes bump into things.

REPLY 75. GM says: January 22, 2016 at 12:59 pm Just gone short FTSE100 via 3x ETF, 40% position. Probably just a day trade. I see descending trendlines and lateral resistance on FTSE at this level, and also on ES. Moe thinks a triangle before lower:

REPLY 76. Jegersmart says: January 22, 2016 at 2:52 pm Hey GM, did you take some @%@%&*% profits at all or what? You could have retired a couple of days ago????:) J REPLY 1. GM says: January 22, 2016 at 5:13 pm I got out of my shorts on 7th January jeger, I did report it here, I was still on holiday, think it was a 21% gain, having missed previous gains I felt happy closing the positions (a tad too early with hindsight). The new position is now trapped, as it can only be traded during UK market hours. A sell-off before Monday’s open would be welcome. I will retire when gold is subject to ECB GOMO in a few years! REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: January 22, 2016 at 9:52 pm Good to hear Gm. Good weekend to all. J

REPLY 77. purvez says: January 22, 2016 at 5:03 pm Ok here are some ‘pictures’ to go along with the narrative I’ve been spouting. Bare with me on this one (…or not) because it does get convoluted. The first one below shows the action since the August down wave. On that chart, I believe, that the late August low was wave A. The subsequent up to early Nov high is wave a of B. The next wave down from there is wave b of B. I’ve tried to break down this one further into it’s constituent parts. http://postimg.org/image/fp2rj3ond/ The little blue square at the bottom right of the above chart I have then enlarged into the next one. That shows an Ending Diagonal with it’s trend line. However as you’ll notice the last down wave didn’t get near to the trend line which is RARE (and therefore makes it marginally ‘suspect’) http://postimg.org/image/kgrcrr6wt/ The action since then and into this morning is clearly a ‘Leading Diagonal’ as shown by the red count. The MAIN thing I’m trying to explain here is that wave B is itself made up of 3 huge waves. My REASON for saying that is that both wave a of B and b of B are in 3 waves. So….what does that mean in terms of what may come next? I believe that we have a wave c of B to come which will reach the early Nov highs at least. Thereafter we’ll have the ‘waterfall’ wave which will be wave C down. Depending on whether wave c of B just reaches the Nov high OR it goes much higher we will then know whether wave C will just reach the August lows or go much lower. i.e. just a Flat or an Expanded Flat. In the VERY NEAR TERM… since the red count is a Leading Diagonal then I’m expecting a drop to near the start of that wave i.e. towards the recent lows BUT NOT going past them. If nothing else this exercise has highlighted to me the need for a better charting service!! If anyone’s got any questions then please do ask. REPLY 1. purvez says: January 22, 2016 at 5:33 pm Hehehe!! Please DON’T BARE with me. However, if you want, do BEAR with me. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 23, 2016 at 6:47 am Whilst methods of counting may differ, the compass needle indicates we are on the same planet.

REPLY 78. purvez says: January 22, 2016 at 5:07 pm Ugh!! The rules on this new site seem to be that if you post more than 1 chart then it goes into ‘awaiting moderation’. The previous one allowed 2. So I’m going to split my post up. John H, please may I request that once the 2 posts are shown that you delete the composite post. Thanks and apologies for the extra work. REPLY 1. purvez says: January 22, 2016 at 5:08 pm Ha!! it seems to have gone through.

REPLY 79. scott says: January 22, 2016 at 9:01 pm as anticipated. we have hit 5% retracement from the 1.20.16 bottom. what a counter trend move in oil. managed to back money on $nflx put spreads today despite all the green buying some NRG for my 12 month holdings. otherwise in cash going into huge earnings next week for amzn fb baba biib aapl

REPLY 80. scott says: January 22, 2016 at 9:03 pm if we follow the 2008 road map (see northman trader) we may have a signficant retracement up to 2/5/16 bradley turn date and hit the 61.8% breakdown point of around 2000 on spx. http://northmantrader.com/technical-charts/

REPLY 81. Valley says: January 22, 2016 at 9:50 pm PALS next week: Mixed, no clear direction. Guess we rise into Wednesday Fed Meeting and sell off after. REPLY 1. John says: January 23, 2016 at 10:58 am Or will we keep rising till Feb 7? Look at bradley and alphee http://www.alphee.com/exe/srv_stock_dyn.exe?T4_NATAL_DATA_SEARCH_TOWN=&D3_NATAL_DATA_TOWNS=SPY++SPDR+Trust+Series+1%2C&B1=Calculate+Dynamic REPLY 1. Valley says: January 23, 2016 at 10:47 pm Could be, thanks!

REPLY 82. scott says: January 22, 2016 at 9:58 pm i think we rise until next bradley turn date of 2/5. w/ fang releasing, hopey changy in the market, counter trend 15% bounce in oil. and spiral targets 1995 on the futures contract in early feb. chinese new year 2/6/2016. year of the monkey

REPLY 83. GM says: January 22, 2016 at 10:34 pm http://screencast.com/t/u7VIhpqw Wedge to break Monday? Trend-line intact. But potential IHS bottom at 1860 (per Moe).

REPLY 84. GM says: January 22, 2016 at 11:02 pm Good explanation here of why the dollar is likely to be squeezed higher (Eurodollars): http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2016/01/21/tsunamis-runs-and-rubles/ It’ll collapse eventually, but first the big squeeze. REPLY 1. jegersmart says: January 23, 2016 at 11:56 am Hey GM Most wioll be watching this, I know I am:) I have a half weight long from earlier at 1905 and a new one undeclared from 1858 (just fyi). I do believe we need to take a look at 2000odd over the next week or so, but will set stops well in profit just in case. Good luck all! J REPLY 1. Allan says: January 23, 2016 at 3:13 pm The USD is in a mega bear market since topping in 1985. For the last three decades it has been making lower highs and lower lows. We have just made another lower hgh and double-top. Get ready for a collapse in the USD. The US is the most indebted nation in history and has massive unfunded liabilities. REPLY 1. GM says: January 23, 2016 at 5:00 pm Yes, agree re the mega-bear Allan, but let’s see what comes next, a higher high looks more likely for a year maybe. What did you think of Snyder’s thoughts?

85. John Li says: January 23, 2016 at 12:58 am I see Delta points turning with the full moon and inversions bring a down market to new all time lows with the snow. REPLY 1. jegersmart says: January 23, 2016 at 11:50 am “I see Delta points turning with the full moon and inversions bring a down market to new all time lows with the snow.” – John Li So lower than 666 on SPX? What time frame? REPLY 1. John Li says: January 23, 2016 at 5:26 pm Obviously not Dow Jones Lows since inception. I am looking at 5 years as “all-time”, which would be true for stocks like FB that IPOed in 2012.

REPLY 86. Voltaire says: January 23, 2016 at 3:20 am It seems https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/targets/ is now the best entry to this site ?? REPLY John Hampson says: January 23, 2016 at 5:16 am Remove Targets from that link and you have the new home page. The first picture on that home page is the latest post where the discussion will be held. REPLY 1. Voltaire says: January 24, 2016 at 3:22 am No that doesn’t work. It has to be as I said.

REPLY 87. GM says: January 23, 2016 at 5:02 pm My short has a tight-ish stop, which I may loosen a little depending on Sunday night futures action. It now seems to me that literally everyone has called the bottom, and that we’re going to bounce up to various levels. Hmm, I’m not so sure. Yet to see any panic, bulls still complacent. REPLY 1. jegersmart says: January 24, 2016 at 10:15 am Well, clearly it was some sort of bottom which is why shorts cover and go long. A tradeable bounce of 5-10% is very important to making money when trading:D How high we bounce is ofc anyone’s guess. J

REPLY 88. GM says: January 24, 2016 at 12:00 am Just watched Star Wars online….zzzzzz, so dull. A blast from the past…. https://solarcycles.net/2012/05/22/cycle-inversion/ Comment from Kent is interesting within that thread. Night all. REPLY 1. GM says: January 24, 2016 at 12:17 am Full moon: December 25th, market started crashing within 2 trading days. New moon: January 10th, brief mall rally. Full moon: tonight, rally on Friday, will it continue on Monday, or will inversion take it down, as per Kent’s comment in the link? REPLY 2. Peter_ says: January 24, 2016 at 7:05 am Hot for download – Making a Murderer – now threatening to murder Netflix shorts. Snow melting, rain due before Fed. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 24, 2016 at 6:05 pm SPX 1922.4 – mmmm REPLY 1. GM says: January 25, 2016 at 11:51 am Viable, do you think? 2. GM says: January 25, 2016 at 11:55 am https://pugsma.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/pug-sp-500-monthly-eod-1-15-161.jpg?w=1024&h=615 Assuming this happens, what would come after the C3 top in 2028 Peter_? Thanks. 3. Peter_ says: January 25, 2016 at 2:47 pm Both counts disregard the probability of the recent failed primary 5th via full ending diagonal. Since that fail mode was echoed loudly across many major bourses I have adopted its message to be heralding systemic seismology with waterfall to A at pugsma C2 moving C2 towards the 9th planet.

89. Valley says: January 24, 2016 at 6:40 pm 2050 in next two weeks. Any thoughts?

REPLY 90. jegersmart says: January 24, 2016 at 7:59 pm I am looking for 2000-2040 and if seen I will probably start to layer out my calls and longs. We have some work to do to get there though!:) J

REPLY 91. Valley says: January 25, 2016 at 1:31 am Asia opened up, Fed moved rate announcement to Friday. Blizzard in NYC and Washington is over. Maybe ES will dig its way out of the 1900 level back to 2030 by Friday. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 25, 2016 at 4:35 am Valley is this your astrological opinion or personal opinion? Just above you were saying new lows by the first week of Feb? REPLY 2. John Li says: January 25, 2016 at 4:38 am Bloomberg still shows FOMC announcement on Wednesday REPLY 1. Valley says: January 25, 2016 at 9:24 pm I guess that Friday announcement was incorrect. PALS is on the negative side this week. However, if the Fed meeting was changed, and my anticipation is market would sell off after the Fed meeting, I thought that this week might offer a good long opportunity. So I loaded up long at 1885 on the spx. I will stay in this position into Friday anyways as last few days of January into February first is usually bullish seasonally. Also, there are several high probability up moves in mid February, March, and into April 15. So if I get some up side, will switch back to PALS, yet if market stays below 1900 will stay fully invested on seasonals alone. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 26, 2016 at 1:21 am I did read some local Fed talk postponed — was it Atlanta? Regardless, that might have been what you saw. 2. Valley says: January 26, 2016 at 5:23 am My trading pal insists the Fed meeting announcement won’t be until Friday. Can’t find that online though. 3. John says: January 25, 2016 at 11:37 am well, looking at 2008 we are still in correlation if so we could go up till friday Jan 29 /feb 1 and after that sell off in 3 days to a higher low.. let’s see what will happen.

REPLY 92. Voltaire says: January 25, 2016 at 4:18 am Now the pictures have labels when you scan them. Before, they didn’t. Now I can make sense of it. Surely it would be better to have the labels showing all the time whether scanned or not ! REPLY John Hampson says: January 25, 2016 at 5:03 am Got you. I preferred the ‘hidden’ text as the site is now so simple. But anyone else got feedback? REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: January 25, 2016 at 7:24 am John I had the same problem without the text shown for about 30 seconds after you launched the new layout. However, if you are looking to attract new users it may be beneficial to put a bit more info on the home page….. Imho J REPLY John Hampson says: January 25, 2016 at 8:06 am Thanks Jeger 2. Barry says: January 25, 2016 at 4:09 pm It’s reasonably intuitive on my laptop, but it looks different – and not intuitive – using my tablet… My introduction to your new format was via my tablet, and I never figured it out… I eventually just gave up, honestly… After trying it again from my laptop, it took a minute, but was much easier to understand and navigate… Thanks, Barry REPLY John Hampson says: January 25, 2016 at 5:58 pm Ok thanks Barry

93. Peter_ says: January 25, 2016 at 3:42 pm GM says: January 22, 2016 at 10:34 pm http://screencast.com/t/u7VIhpqw Wedge to break Monday? Trend-line intact. But potential IHS bottom at 1860 (per Moe). ————————————Shake that Booty

REPLY 94. Richard Isaacson says: January 25, 2016 at 5:20 pm I think that one of the best markets to “buy the dips”, for the next two years, will be American Natural Gas as it channel trades higher for 2016 and 2017. Latter this year I will be looking to begin “buying the dips” in Crude and Silver. (Yes, that is correct, Allan, I did say Silver). REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: January 25, 2016 at 5:47 pm I suspect that not only are there long term fundamental changes in the –American– NG market but, also, there are fundamental near term changes too. I suspect that Americans are becoming “shut in-s” for many different reasons and that they are keeping their homes warmer than usual with some of the savings from low Gasoline prices which helps to explain the record NG “burn” rates in 2016 so far: http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/?src=email REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: January 26, 2016 at 10:10 am US exports of NG to Mexico increasing radically. In 2017 USA expected to be a net exporter of NG for the first time since 1955: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9132mx2m.htm

REPLY 95. GM says: January 25, 2016 at 7:23 pm Everyone expecting the bounce to continue: therefore it fails. No more buyers, sellers now in control again, expecting bottom to be re-tested shortly. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 26, 2016 at 1:19 am Beta Gamma Delta Inversion with the snow and full moon to new lows the next new moon. REPLY 1. Valley says: January 26, 2016 at 5:25 am Lol, nice parody, =) REPLY 1. John says: January 26, 2016 at 9:00 am Well here is a big optimist I stick to his opinion new highs in April LOL.. If the energy sector rebounds we will see a major reversal.. http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/latest-news.php?id=1031 2. Valley says: January 26, 2016 at 10:01 pm Mahendra Sharma, love him on Kitco.com videos, =)

96. Jegersmart says: January 26, 2016 at 9:30 am FWIW – I added some long exposure to SPX at 1862, with a stop somewhat below the LOD – tighter than I usually like but lets see….. J

REPLY 97. Richard Isaacson says: January 26, 2016 at 11:12 am I have covered all my stock shorts and I am looking to go long. Delta’s S+P 500 eighteen point Long Term points have been unusually accurate over the past year and its L-7 as a low is now due. It is possible that its six point Long Term rotation L-3 is also a low instead of a high and could be coming in with L-7. At this time I think that long “American” Natural Gas is the best trade. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 26, 2016 at 2:54 pm Same here. I am covering my shorts right now. Even though SPY is up, IBB is down quite a bit. My model doesn’t like FOMC meetings.

REPLY 98. Jegersmart says: January 26, 2016 at 12:48 pm Thanks John for the link to this Mahendra fellow. I would just remember that no one can predict the future, no one. Whether what he is selling is useful or not, I don’t know – possibly, but I don’t think I am going to find out for the reason I stated….:) If he wasn’t so sure, and did use words like “should or could happen” I would actually be more inclined to take a look….. Isaacson, just taking a look at the price action for NG – I don’t see a compelling reason to go long or short at this point. Reading your posts above I am not quite clear why going long is a good idea? Keeping homes warm….meh……but increasing exports to Mexico could be interesting to monitor, allowing for flat price change and of course also demand and what the supply/demand picture is in Mexico. I don’t normally trade too much NG, so if you have any further data that can be shared I would take a look. J REPLY 1. GM says: January 26, 2016 at 3:40 pm In addition, one would need to consider the USD before taking a position in a commodity such as NG. My view on the USD is well known, up up and away for a year or so I reckon. Down with commodities therefore.

REPLY 99. GM says: January 26, 2016 at 3:16 pm I closed my shorts this morning, my lie-in cost me dear, but still a handy 2% profit banked, so can’t grumble. Currently unsure what will happen next, but nice to see gold doing OK. Suspect a rise to FOMC, and a good shorting opportunity at that point. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: January 26, 2016 at 5:33 pm well played, there is no such thing as a bad profitable trade in my book! J REPLY 1. GM says: January 26, 2016 at 10:22 pm Absolutely.

REPLY 00. Krish says: January 26, 2016 at 3:41 pm Big swing from negative to positive today. Could be the start of a more sustained rise. Shorts all closed for me although I missed the majority of the drop.

REPLY 01. Peter_ says: January 26, 2016 at 3:51 pm You should be able to feel the effect of that consumer confidence tablet surging through your algorithm, unless it is another fake from the far east side.

REPLY 02. Richard Isaacson says: January 26, 2016 at 5:04 pm The rally in the Canadian Dollar could be a signal from Mr. Market that the lows in the Energies is in. A rally in the Energies would increase the odds of a broad market rally in stocks. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: January 26, 2016 at 5:14 pm The Industrial Metals, Copper and Silver, have broken out to the upside today. This is more evidence that the Bear Market in Commodities is over. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: January 26, 2016 at 5:40 pm As of today I am going to consider that the Bear Market in Commodities is over and, therefor, to start “buying the dips” in Commodities. This is also causing me to consider changing my opinion of Delta’s stocks six point L-3 as a low instead of a high. Both L-7 and L-3 are due in January and if they are both coming in together as lows then it increases the odds that Super Long Term point 7 is coming in early and stocks are on their way to new ATHs and beyond. This is a major change of opinion about the markets for me. REPLY 1. GM says: January 26, 2016 at 6:54 pm More correctly Richard, you made the exact same declaration a few weeks ago. Back then oil was at c. $34, and subsequently plunged to $27/8. So, let’s see if you have more luck this time? I suspect you’ll be proven totally wrong once again, as I think industrial commodities have much lower to go. Good luck. 2. Richard Isaacson says: January 27, 2016 at 10:50 am NG could rally: http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Natural-gas-headed-up-6783289.php?t=55e8c33ce3 3. Richard Isaacson says: January 27, 2016 at 11:10 am The USA is no where near self sufficiency in Energy: http://peakoil.com/consumption/the-myth-of-us-self-sufficiency-in-crude-oil

03. GM says: January 26, 2016 at 5:28 pm This ‘bottom’ in ES looks very different to the previous two plunges, both of which had very swift recoveries, with plenty of ‘uumph’ behind them. This time, no uumph, chopping around, unable to gain much headway to the upside. A sign that the bulls are exhausted, and there are now more bears at these levels? Hard to see ES 2000 being reached, maybe 1950 though.

REPLY 04. Jegersmart says: January 26, 2016 at 5:36 pm I would say possibly no more bears right now, bulls still scared so indecision prevails:D J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 26, 2016 at 9:31 pm I am still a bear. I jest but still believe new swing lows. Got out of IBB at the 10am lows this AM, and will short in the next day or two again. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 26, 2016 at 9:33 pm Oh I realize it could be confusing because I said “Same here” above. I read “I have covered all my stock shorts…” and I tuned out the rest of the message when I said “Same here”.

REPLY 05. Valley says: January 26, 2016 at 10:08 pm This week PALS is mostly negative, and this continues into next week. Fed meeting acts as price magnet most times, which is why I went long Monday at lows. After Fed announcement, I will be lightening up my spy long position. Shorting so far below the 50 day moving average rarely pays off especially from late January until April 15.

REPLY 06. Valley says: January 26, 2016 at 10:11 pm April 15, tax day, in US acts as one of the most stable price magnets there is for the spy, regardless of selling in January or February, market tends to retrace into that day. That is another reason I want to buy dips, cause if market continues lower, I hope to be able to exit higher by that day. REPLY 1. GM says: January 27, 2016 at 1:18 pm Was surprised to read this valley. I thought you were day trading? Surely you would sell the rips on down days (like in 2008 and 2000), and only start to buy the dips nearer April 15th? Hard to trade Feb and March based on something weeks and weeks away. Good luck. REPLY 1. Valley says: January 27, 2016 at 7:31 pm I focus on day trading the e mini. Yet in another account I swing trade the spy. Helps to have both short term and medium term perspective. If short term bet goes awry, exit. If medium term swing trade goes awry, remain in if seasonals are compelling in direction of trade.

REPLY 07. Jegersmart says: January 27, 2016 at 3:00 pm From my perspective we have recently carved out some sort of bottom, obviously it is not clear whether it is a pause in the selling or an intermediate or long-term bottom, but personally my view is that one either trades these set ups on the long side or one stays out – going short near a support level is not good trade in my eyes. I dont know if the PALS system takes into account recent price action is the reason for mentioning this, if the system says “buy” then thats what you do? I thought this system was a short-term swing system – positions over a matter of a few to several days – not day trading? In any case, all the very best of luck to all. FWIW, I am considering closing part of my SPX longs over the next hour or 3 if we cannot regain at least 1900 in that sort of timeframe – but it is going to be difficult to trade this week well I suspect…. J REPLY 1. GM says: January 27, 2016 at 6:02 pm I agree jeger, but if the game has changed (to bear) the risk/reward of shorting here with a tigh-ish stop could be attractive. Hence I think one needs to either have a view on that, or sit it out. If I could trade US times (as opposed to only UK times) I would be shorting now. But maybe tomorrow will allow an entry. Likewise, gold has the potential to pop up to $1200, if it can creep over $1120ish. Much to be decided today/tomorrow.

REPLY 08. Jegersmart says: January 27, 2016 at 4:12 pm I just closed my gold longs, think a pullback likely – can always reenter later. J

REPLY 09. John Li says: January 27, 2016 at 4:41 pm Taking some profits on my IBB shorts from the open. Can always reenter later.

REPLY 10. Peter_ says: January 27, 2016 at 4:46 pm The geriatric force shall awaken to tea and waffle, meanwhile the rest of planet x will partake of a free vote where the early pollster results suggest a broken trampoline is imminent.

REPLY 11. Jegersmart says: January 27, 2016 at 4:54 pm well the QQQ is not participating in this bounce today…..

REPLY 12. Richard Isaacson says: January 27, 2016 at 5:08 pm The time has come to “buy the dips” in: 1st: American Natural Gas 2nd: American Heating Oil 3rd: West Texas Intermediate Crude. And maybe, just maybe, the American S+P 500/DOW stock indexes. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: January 27, 2016 at 5:16 pm Over the past several days, intra-day, has Copper been leading WTI Crude and, thus, the S+P 500/DOW stock indexes higher? Could it be that WTI Crude is not leading American stocks higher but that Dr. Copper is? REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: January 27, 2016 at 5:26 pm Who is the Leader of the Pack: Copper, Crude, or the Canadian Dollar? REPLY 1. Peter_ says: January 27, 2016 at 5:50 pm I know, I know – its Dr Who 2. GM says: January 27, 2016 at 5:55 pm ES was at 1899 close on 22nd Jan, it’s 3 points higher now. Go bulls. REPLY 1. John Li says: January 27, 2016 at 6:24 pm IBB is where the action is…it is down every day since Jan 22nd. 2. John Li says: January 27, 2016 at 7:18 pm I agree that 1950 is possible — I think FOMC is quite dovish. More sunspots recently too.

13. Valley says: January 27, 2016 at 7:32 pm Exited longs before Fed announcement on “strength”. Will reload tomorrow morning if mid 1800s is reached. REPLY 1. John says: January 27, 2016 at 8:17 pm Right agian Valley do you think we have one more wave up above 1900 before turning down again? REPLY 1. Valley says: January 27, 2016 at 9:29 pm Target 1930 next few days. Facebook had good earnings. McDonalds has all day breakfast. REPLY 1. John says: January 27, 2016 at 10:02 pm Thanks that is what I need I kept my AEX calls the Oil rally caught me by surprise.. The bradley,spiral and Alphee are still up into next week (middle or end) 2. Valley says: January 27, 2016 at 10:48 pm PALS suffers from far south lunar declination, and post perigee next week, seasonals are ok, and new moon lead up week is good usually. I am fairly certain we rally into Friday. I am doubtful about next week. 3. John says: January 28, 2016 at 6:26 pm What a rollercoaster.. the Dax went from plus half a procent into minus 2,7pr.. This is the latest from Mahendra maybe it will be a positive guide.. http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/userfiles/files/28_january_2016_trend_for_metals,_energy,_grains,_nifty,_stocks_&_rupee.pdf 4. John says: January 29, 2016 at 2:25 pm Hi Valley sold my longs this morning I hope you will see your SP 1930. I think B.O.J saved the day. What are you plans for next week we have Sean spiral date Feb 5 Bradley Feb 3-5 and Mercury Feb 6 5. Valley says: January 29, 2016 at 4:16 pm Good job, John. I also sold my long position mid morning today, and rolled to smaller position that expires next Friday.

14. John Li says: January 27, 2016 at 7:49 pm Latest NYSE margin is out http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8

REPLY 15. John Li says: January 27, 2016 at 8:26 pm What an annoying day. I am suffering from not waiting to lose money.

REPLY 16. jegersmart says: January 27, 2016 at 10:36 pm Hi John I know what you mean – a tricky week. Stay safe and see what tomorrow brings. J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 27, 2016 at 11:42 pm Thanks! I was up a ton, wanted to let it ride, lost a ton, didn’t want to be down on the day, and then up four tons *if* I had not gotten out. REPLY 1. Pulp says: January 28, 2016 at 7:22 am One of these days I will profit from a FOMC day whilst there is blood flowing through my veins.

REPLY 17. John Li says: January 27, 2016 at 11:41 pm John/Scott/et al , I follow Bradley quite a bit, and it did well in getting the Nikkei bottom in 1992 for example. But why all the excitement for the 2/5/16 date? There are many Bradley dates, but that one is only significant for the middle terms. http://bradleysiderograph.com/2016-turn-dates-sp500/

REPLY 18. John says: January 28, 2016 at 9:48 am John Li I look for the bradley dates on Time Price the Helio and Geo version The last Helio version was Jan 19 .. bottom …well the 20th was a big bottom next top Feb 3 or 5 Or a bottom don’t now?

REPLY 19. Allan says: January 28, 2016 at 3:00 pm Has the look of a intermediate bottom http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p25218494857

REPLY 20. Jegersmart says: January 28, 2016 at 3:47 pm Can anyone spell “v-o-l-a-t-i-l-i-t-y”? I added a bit more SPX long exposure at 1877, again with stops fairly tight. I got stopped out of my QQQ long last night for a 0.2% profit……and closed my gold longs yesterday as shared here. Still long soy, corn, gdx and POT. and short UPS which looks like it will be stopped out at break even very soon…:) J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 28, 2016 at 3:55 pm VIX still pretty low, can go higher

REPLY 21. Jegersmart says: January 28, 2016 at 4:35 pm i just closed my GDX longs, the price has been capped by a descending trrendline for some time and as there may be a reaction I will take the profit now. If it breaks out I will re-enter. J

REPLY 22. Jegersmart says: January 28, 2016 at 4:38 pm One tranche long QQQ @ 100.87 – close to support……(?) J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 29, 2016 at 3:51 am Did you get filled? If so congrats. Futures are up due to Japan QE

REPLY 23. Barry says: January 28, 2016 at 5:19 pm Market thoughts: My Trading System went to a “Buy” last night, and while I have not enough cajones to actually go long, I have reduced shorts to a very modest 30% net short… That feels like almost no position at all, but that’s what leverage teaches you… hahaha It looks like there is enough to get a pretty good bounce here (charts / oscillators / sentiment), but I simply don’t trust this market one bit…. Been a good month, so going “small-ball”,and I’m looking to add to shorts as we get higher, but in no hurry as long as things look bullish… Call me “Baby Nicolas”….

REPLY 24. Jegersmart says: January 28, 2016 at 5:37 pm Thanks Baby;)

REPLY 25. Peter_ says: January 28, 2016 at 6:32 pm So the global bear has been verified, so what. Go long until March, April or May. Say what? So the 7 year bull cycle is ended with never been seen before chart patterns everywhere. So what? The sentiment is still bull crazy for absolutely no fundamental reason, so what? Prices are so way over extended (accepted as the cause of the freak failure patterns), so what? Go bull crazy or you miss the obvious. And the obvious is – CB omnipotency. Believe in the mystic power, and know that the moon is really made of cheese.

REPLY 26. jegersmart says: January 28, 2016 at 6:49 pm I agree the bull is broken – probably. If you only trade one direction, just wait for the right time….? J

REPLY 27. Red Dog says: January 28, 2016 at 9:51 pm Al – you will love this

REPLY 28. Red Dog says: January 29, 2016 at 1:42 am this backs the above story up http://plata.com.mx/Mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=281

REPLY 29. Richard Isaacson says: January 29, 2016 at 2:15 am Near record temps this weekend could set the Energies back to new lows (led by NG and HO). This would also pressure stocks to set back too. (By my calculations HO’s Delta I-3 is due today and is clearly a high so that its I-4 will be a low and possible a new low.) REPLY 1. GM says: January 29, 2016 at 11:35 am Clearly schizophrenic. Or just having a laugh at those who take him seriously? Just 2 days ago……. ‘The time has come to “buy the dips” in: 1st: American Natural Gas’ Mad as a hatter. purvez, where are you, hope you’re well? REPLY 2. John Li says: January 29, 2016 at 1:17 pm I-3 is today. When is I-4?

REPLY 30. Bruno Padoan says: January 29, 2016 at 3:43 pm Bruno says: I’m a longtime follower of Yr.blog, John Hampson, and I appreciate Yr.work alot. This time, in addition, there’s ths marvelous picture to open “targets”. You know, the mountains? They are the Langjoch and Plattjoch (italian: Sassolungo e Sassopiatto) viewed from the Seiseralm (italian: Alpe di Siusi) in the Dolomites, South Tyrol. Behind them lies the fabulous Gadetal (Val Gardena) one of the most beautiful valleys of the Alps. Gratulatins and many thanks REPLY John Hampson says: January 29, 2016 at 3:53 pm Thanks!

REPLY 31. Jegersmart says: January 29, 2016 at 3:52 pm I am taking 25% of long positions off the table now in terms of SPX and QQQ. J

REPLY 32. Jegersmart says: January 29, 2016 at 5:33 pm and another 25% now, the rest can ride next week with stops set. Have a great weekend all. J REPLY 1. GM says: January 30, 2016 at 11:44 am Well done on those longs.

REPLY 33. Barry says: January 29, 2016 at 5:34 pm Good job, Jegers…. I just added a layer of shorts at my 1920 SPX level… Looks like we’re pretty much on the same page here, but your way actually MAKES money…. LOL REPLY 1. John Li says: January 29, 2016 at 5:50 pm Are you 50% into your shorts? Do you think SPX 2000 is possible? REPLY 1. Barry says: January 29, 2016 at 7:03 pm I’m actually at 87% net short right now…. I was up over 400% net short over a month ago, so clearly much more to go…. 2000 possible? Of course… I think that’s a stretch though, and my scales will be done before then…. I would expect we’ll top out somewhere between here and 1980, but as mentioned earlier, I don’t trust this market one bit, and it could literally do anything… I know that’s not really a helpful statement for positioning oneself, but that’s why I’m not too levered up at this moment…. Just a LOT of cross-currents going on, and rumors/news/CB actions aren’t helping….

REPLY 34. jegersmart says: January 29, 2016 at 7:45 pm I had a target of around 1930-35 so have changed my mind and offloaded now. Let’s see what next week brings. All the best J REPLY 1. Valley says: January 29, 2016 at 8:09 pm Good trade, JS! REPLY 2. John Li says: January 29, 2016 at 8:41 pm Well done!

REPLY 35. Krish says: January 29, 2016 at 7:48 pm Bearish momentum has been stopped so time to let the Bulls do their thing before going short again. Expecting 3-4% further upside at the most.

REPLY 36. Barry says: January 29, 2016 at 8:53 pm Well done INDEED, Jegers! And here I was doubting we’d even GET to 1920 today…. hahahaha REPLY 1. John Li says: January 29, 2016 at 9:33 pm Today was unexpected, and yet it feels familiar. I recall that we were shorting/scaling in 10/2014, and then at the end of 10/2014, Japan announced pension fund stock buying. The market rallied the entire 11/2014. Now, they announce negative rates. Is this the first shot, or the last shot? REPLY 2. jegersmart says: January 30, 2016 at 11:19 am It was an initial target only, I still think its possible that we head up towards the top of the large triangle (2040ish) over the coming weeks but there are other factors that I think may come into play – and I have a bunch of SPX calls both Feb and March in any case so wanted to book profit bearing in mind recent volatility. Next week if we see a retrace down to 1890-1900 again I may get back in on the long side especially if crude doesn’t slip back too much – I will need to take a look at the charts on Sunday night in more detail. I think it quite likely that we will see around 1550-1600 on the SPX this year, so in the larger view this is something that I will bear in mind – but nothing goes in a straight line so if can bag a decent percentage of the (possibly) 1000 points on the SPX on the way there I would be more than happy. Just going back to the crude scenario, I wish I had gone short a few refiners already when I brought this up a couple of weeks ago but I am not sure we have found the longer term bottom in crude – although we certainly seem to have found a bottom of some sort. You will remember that I was long CRU from 3006, it spiked to 3084 where I moved my stops to break even, and then over the next several sessions it sliced through down to 27xx so the stops kicked in but CRU is trading at 3422 now….but at least I was safe…:)

It is easy to get carried away, I note that my performance since September 1st last year stands at just over 167% net gain, with around a quarter of that in the last 6 weeks. I can fairly frequently go through periods of 20% draw down, especially during periods of whipsaw action which makes it difficult to swing trade – and bear in mind that if all my Feb and March calls expire at zero (they were OTM when I purchased) that will be a 11% loss on my pot. But, the 2030 and 2040 calls are very much in profit, my 2120 and 2180’s not so much…..:) I have allowed for a 6% overall loss on those. Apart from the SPX calls, I am long Soybeans and Corn and POT – but am 89% in cash now as I was quite heavy long SPX /QQQ and so on until last night. Time to really consider how to re-apply the released funds. p.s. and just fyi, when I quote gains it is always against my nominal trading pot only. That is to say, I have a pot which for example sake is “100”, whenever I go above 130/140 I will withdraw funds and use them elsewhere. Each year (normally) I set the size of the pot according to my overall financial situation, and the easy thing is that since 1 Jan 2015 it has not changed size if you see what I mean? Just to put things in perspective….. Good luck to all. J REPLY 1. John Li says: January 30, 2016 at 1:06 pm Thanks for the comments. Wow you are certainly doing well. REPLY 1. jegersmart says: January 30, 2016 at 6:01 pm Well, if you pick a period to suit – it can look better or worse of course. In August last year I was down 22% in that month alone – but that can and does happen. The longer term average (for which I have current records – so about 6.5 years) is around 53% per annum – before tax. In the last 19 years, of which I have been trading around 14 of those (sometimes hobby, often fulltime) I suspect it would be nearer 40% than 50%. I didn’t keep such good records in early days, plus I lost a load of records at some time around 2007. In 2008 for example I was down 22% for the year. The pot allocation also varies quite a lot. If my pot size is currently “100” – then it has also been 25 at times and in a few years about 2000. I only allocate what I could afford to lose completely without duress, and of course that varies from period to period. The point was really to put things in perspective and to clarify what I quoted – sometimes 53% can be enough to buy a car, other times when the pot is bigger it can be enough to buy a house. And in the years when I am negative, the losses can be quite small or enough to have purchased an apartment if I hadn’t lost it…..my best ever year was 246% gain, and my worst was around 65% loss – but thats pretty extreme – after all I cannot be 246% down, these are all relative to the *initial* pot…… The main thing is, we all learn over time. Thanks to many here and others I know in the game or elsewhere the trend of profitability is up constantly from when I started. At some point it will be all I do (again), however as trading can be quite boring most of the time I suspect that I will need to allocate a large pot once again and make maybe 30-50 trades a year only on a long-term swing basis so I can get back out on some expeditions around the world and develop the physical oil broking business that I started a couple of years ago. It is very small at the moment with only a couple of smaller term deals, but there are big fish to fry now into China so perhaps it will be possible to get close a couple of big deals that I am working currently (I give it 10% chance of success) – which would open up more possibilities in time. Luckily I am employed now to do pretty much what we do here within oil, with an office set up at home so have flexibility to explore a variety of options. In truth, at the age of 44 it is a bit strange to be back working for someone else but in these circumstances it doesn’t *feel* like I do….which is what I get allergic to most of the time over the past 2 decades,,,,,but, I have done my share of commuting in London….and I don’t miss it one bit….. All the best J 2. John Li says: February 1, 2016 at 4:43 am With returns like 53% per annum consistently, you are beating Warren Buffet and should really consider starting your own fund!

37. Valley says: January 30, 2016 at 12:57 am PALS Next Week SPY: Phase: positive all week (unless new moon inverts again) Distance: weak Mon Tues post apogee, positive Wed to Fri Declination: weak all week, far South Seasonals: no clear advantage, unusual volatility Planets: bullish no bearish factors, several bullish Summary: Exited long position at close Friday. Looking for shorting opportunities at noon on Monday until next Friday. REPLY 1. John says: January 30, 2016 at 11:23 am Thanks Valley very good call Sp500 at 1940, Maybe next monday still up that will be the start of a more volatile week ahead For the Mahendra lovers this is an interesting link from his newsletter Jan 25-29 and the days ahead… He is not bullish on oil longterm I remember his newsletter may 2014 he called the last top that was spot on. Also the analogie 2008 and 2015 (Jan and Feb) is still inline if it will stay on track after Monday we will dive agian not to new lows but close.. http://nl.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/userfiles/files/25-29_january_2016_weekly_financial_letter.pdf To all Have a nice weekend.

REPLY 38. pulp says: January 30, 2016 at 10:05 am Dax: It’s quite possible that the top yellow line will be hit again: http://www.screencast.com/users/prince3000/folders/Default/media/aac43fe4-d7ac-48ef-b51b-6eda95c834f4

REPLY 39. Phil White says: January 30, 2016 at 10:37 am Hi folks, hope everyone is keeping well. I have a quick question which I am hoping John H or one of you other guys may be able to answerHas there ever been an example of both the DJT and RUT trading in to a bear market (on the 20% from high definition) without the SPX and DJI then following?. Much appreciated if someone can answer.

REPLY 40. Allan says: January 30, 2016 at 1:37 pm Martin Armstrong at it yet again……… “The REAL BULL MARKET will see the metals rise with equities” This statement contadicts history TOTALLY! It is now obvious that MA has allowed his disdain toward the gold community to cloud his perception of fact. REPLY 1. jegersmart says: January 30, 2016 at 6:30 pm I guess we should start with being open to anything being a possibility whilst leaving emotions at the door? I don’t and have never read his stuff, in my experience most of these people are at least as wrong as I am on a continual basis….. J REPLY 1. Allan says: January 31, 2016 at 7:31 am J, always open to any possibility however when somebody pounds table and says ignore history, listen to me, then I am very wary of what they have to offer. I will always lean on the side of history first. REPLY 1. GM says: January 31, 2016 at 9:03 pm I read Armstrong every day, often for amusement more than anything else. Some excellent typos guaranteed. I am intrigued to see whether he could be right about equities and gold rising together as the sovereign bond bubble bursts after c.33 years (arguably after c. 94 years). In the 70s that didn’t happen, money fled sovereign debt, rates therefore rose, gold had a 22x increase, whilst the broad markets were sideways for c.17-18 years. However, I am also mindful of cycles, and the current secular bear is due to finish within a year or so, then could be off to the races again. So, I’m open-minded, undecided, watchful.

41. Peter_ says: January 30, 2016 at 4:58 pm SPX still far from -20% on my spyphone, is it new normal corrupted? No wonder so much bear bluff bull stuff. Meanwhile the fail pattern may as well be a leading diagonal (except its wave 2 went awol). Should we suppose anything can happen, the more berserk the more the new normal? Why not? Been happening for years already. Another month ending dressage, bombs away.

REPLY 42. Phil White says: January 30, 2016 at 6:23 pm I am aware the SPX is nowhere near -20% and that was the basis of the question – has there been any example of both the DJT and RUT trading in a technical bear market (-20%) where the SPX and DJI have not followed. The DJT in particular was a lead indicator for US markets in 2015. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: February 2, 2016 at 6:09 pm For some there is only after the fact, incredible doubt in the face of incredible reason. Why bring it here, this site is virtually closed due to the demands and encampment from day-trading (and other) schizophrenics, doubting Thom’s and Tell Me More types who have no apparent interest in the postings of the erstwhile host.

REPLY 43. Valley says: January 30, 2016 at 7:39 pm Am tracking a 10 month cycle. According to this cycle next two months are down, possibly a lot. Worst two months of the 10 month cycle. Typically spx rises into April 15, tax day. However, based upon 10 months cycle, interest rates nut that must be cracked, commodity sell off, etc., I am looking for a deep sell off in the next two months to about 1695 on spx..

REPLY 44. John says: January 31, 2016 at 3:29 pm Hi Valley, SPX 1700 is mentioned by Stan Harley in his latest update around May 10.. Goodluck… REPLY 1. Valley says: January 31, 2016 at 8:15 pm Thanks, John. February 10 is next Fed speech. One scenario is market falls into meeting, a lot, giving them excuse to announce no rate hike. REPLY 1. John says: January 31, 2016 at 10:54 pm My Pleasure … That was on my mind too, the fed needs an excuse to make up for there bad call in December… We will see if the rally has more legs tommorow I think the next bradley dates 3 or 5 Feb will be very important this week they have to be tops and bottom in early March REPLY 2. John says: February 2, 2016 at 4:41 pm Looks like next Mercury will be a low if we don’t go up today? REPLY 3. John says: February 3, 2016 at 9:50 am Hi Valley Are you going for the fed Scenario? Look at Chris Carolan’s Tidal graph.. Goodluck. REPLY 1. Valley says: February 4, 2016 at 3:09 am Tides obviously are useful. I use them also. I don’t see any real strength until after Fed meeting. I bought low yesterday and sold half today near close. Will sell other half if we reach 1950. 4. John says: February 4, 2016 at 9:43 am Thanks Valley I should have sold my puts yesterday and buy them back today but I hope we will see new lows before the fed meeting. Darkpools also bought the lows yesterday but sold the highs at te end of the day.. REPLY 1. Bill says: February 4, 2016 at 4:01 pm Valley,John Do you plan to go short before ADP today. or wait for it. How is the PALS next week. 2. Valley says: February 4, 2016 at 5:29 pm PALS next week on spy: Phase: positive (unless bear market inversion) Distance: positive Declination: negative until next Friday Seasonals: positive Planets: neutral Summary: assuming we are in mini bear market. expecting new moon to invert causing weakness next week. will try to make money by day trading.

45. alphahorn says: February 1, 2016 at 12:03 am Here’s my SPX daily Renko chart. It has been great and calling tops and bottoms. It just marked a significant bottom, see ADX indicator level. It provides a pretty nice wave count as well. Like I’ve been saying, and of course I could easily be proven wrong, but I believe we just finished the shake out phase the John notes, and now we are embarking on the final push up before we roll over. We’ll see if the SPX clears 1956, then 1965 then 2000.https://alphahorn.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/renko7.png?w=960 REPLY John Hampson says: February 1, 2016 at 8:03 am Ladies & Gents, I’m off on hols for 2 weeks. I’ll update the charts when I’m back. Good luck to all. REPLY 1. Valley says: February 2, 2016 at 1:08 am Have fun, John! Thanks. REPLY 2. Peter_ says: February 2, 2016 at 6:24 pm Your recent depart brought forth the budding of the fruit of your work for our benefit. Accordingly I have become bolder by this second impulsive – increasing my exposure to the short side of CB props and the long side of gold (the trinity). You have heralded the great waterfall. All non-believers should now kindly take their snake oils elsewhere, or be consumed.

REPLY 46. Jegersmart says: February 1, 2016 at 9:53 am Have a great time John! REPLY John Hampson says: February 1, 2016 at 3:33 pm Thanks Jegersmart

REPLY 47. Jegersmart says: February 1, 2016 at 4:09 pm Actually any unheard of or unusual destination recommendations for travel are always welcome. If its any good let meknow??:D J

REPLY 48. Pulp says: February 1, 2016 at 8:17 pm Jegersmart: what about Volcano following for a holiday: http://metro.co.uk/2016/01/31/photo-series-captures-erupting-volcano-in-all-its-fiery-glory-5654500/

REPLY 49. Jegersmart says: February 2, 2016 at 10:14 am Haha – I had enough of volcanoes actually – I was in Iceland hiking when that one went off. Amazing sight but felt somewhat vulnerable until I got back into civilisation….:) J

REPLY 50. Barry says: February 2, 2016 at 3:03 pm FWIW, as of this morning, I have decided to cover all shorts, and have actually gone long.. I am at a 23% net long position ATM, with no real desire to add to it at this point, but we’ll just see where we go… That is a reversal to my earlier strategy, but it comes down to one specific thing: Either you follow your system, or you don’t.. One is the right thing to do, and the other is not… My trading system says be 50% long, the charts generally look bullish, HY is starting to go back up again, so as much as this pains me, I am now long… Process matters….not the result… *gotta keep reminding myself of that* REPLY 1. John Li says: February 2, 2016 at 3:57 pm Just curious Barry, what signals in the trading system changed so suddenly? Is it the VIX under 20, or an oversold condition? REPLY 1. Barry says: February 2, 2016 at 6:12 pm My system flipped to a buy several days ago… It didn’t change, ~I~ did…. I just asked myself, if I didn’t have any positions on right now, based upon everything in front of you, do charts and indicators say higher or lower? And my system being long was part of those indicators, but lots of charts said “higher” to me as well.. Again, are you a trader that follows his systems or not.. Today, I answered that “yes”… REPLY 2. Barry says: February 2, 2016 at 6:16 pm And of course, this is the same chart-reading skill on my part that says T-bonds should be going lower…. So there’s that…. :-O REPLY 2. Peter_ says: February 2, 2016 at 6:01 pm Bulls needed for body parts, apply elsewhere – anywhere

REPLY 51. jegersmart says: February 2, 2016 at 6:28 pm I have taken long positions in SPX and XBI – the latter seems to be in a falling wedge which I like to trade. GLA J REPLY 1. Peter_ says: February 2, 2016 at 7:01 pm au revoir monsieur Klingon

REPLY 52. Barry says: February 2, 2016 at 7:14 pm Now up to 32% net long… Step TWO to a life of poverty, no doubt… :-O REPLY 1. Peter_ says: February 2, 2016 at 7:41 pm No poker here, but you can stare at this… http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/

REPLY 53. Specie says: February 2, 2016 at 8:49 pm Biowreck index is now down over 37% from nicholas’ top recommendaton price. i was pretty sure he should have given out some stop ideas with such touts REPLY 1. Barry says: February 2, 2016 at 9:39 pm Central Banker’s are N’s stops… He’s “convinced” of it… hahaha He must be on such a great vacation he’s completely forgotten to come back… On the other hand, his money looks ~much~ better in my account than it did in his, and I’ve been taking good care of it for him…. hahaha Jeger’s been doing a great job of taking care of some of his money too, I’d imagine…

REPLY 54. jegersmart says: February 2, 2016 at 11:38 pm Well if I have it will be my turn for someone else to “take care” of mine another time…:)

The point I made about Nicolas many times was not that it was a problem he was bullish, but more that he was a troll – i.e. no plan, no clue and on top of all that smug as f**k. It’s just not a safe attitude to have. imho J

REPLY 55. Red Dog says: February 2, 2016 at 11:54 pm https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaOoNvBWQAALE0V.png:large

REPLY 56. Barry says: February 3, 2016 at 3:33 am John Li asked me earlier today about my current trade re-orientation, and I thought the following might add some perspective to my earlier answer. It’s something I’ve started reading (re-reading?) every couple of days, and I think it’s one of the things that helps me be better about keeping an open mind…. ———————————————————————————————— From Richard Wyckoff and worth a read each morning prior to taking a trade “The information you can derive from the tape and from your charts is far more valuable than any that you can get from any other source. There is an old saying: The tape never lies. Your judgment should be based on sound premises. You have all the facts before you; assemble these and make your diagnosis. Decide what the situation calls for; then use courage in acting upon your decision. Be courageous, and somewhat bold, but with a certain measure of prudence – alertness and watchfulness combined with caution. Allow for the unforeseen and the incalculable. Learn to think and act promptly. Your decision becomes a command to trade. Having placed your order, never fear to revise your opinion. You must have flexibility; the mere holding of a certain position is no REASON for your holding it; never be bullish or bearish just because you are in a trade. The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the market itself – from the tape. Your judgment will become poorer from the very time when you decide that you know more about the market than the market is telling you. From that moment your results will be unsatisfactory, for in this trading business the tape is the boss. You must learn to obey its orders, doing exactly what it tells you. When you can accomplish this, you are on the high road to success in your stock trading.” REPLY 1. Peter_ says: February 3, 2016 at 6:17 am Hypnosis also under consideration by CB’s – e.g. you must do as the market tells you and we are the market so go long no matter what. Best cure is a bucket of cold water. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: February 3, 2016 at 9:57 am Haha Peter, to me it seems that they already using it and its working well….^^ J REPLY 2. Jegersmart says: February 3, 2016 at 5:51 pm Its a good thing to remember – however in my experience occasionally the market does something that I can only identify as “lying” – i.e. it shouts “go left” and for a short while it does and then makes a u-turn and lights the afterburners, leaving you bruised and in a foetal position with your clothes/bodyhair still smouldering from the heat….. imho J

REPLY 57. Allan says: February 3, 2016 at 3:06 pm Let the smack down begin in the most contrived market in history in 5..4..3..2..1…… http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p35551000307 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p56051997881

REPLY 58. Barry says: February 3, 2016 at 8:56 pm Good trading the past several days, Jegers… Very well done…

REPLY 59. Jegersmart says: February 4, 2016 at 8:58 am You win some, you lose some……but thanks. J

REPLY 60. Krish says: February 4, 2016 at 3:35 pm This waterfall decline really struggling to gain traction… REPLY 1. GM says: February 4, 2016 at 5:05 pm HUI doing a nice reverse waterfall though.

REPLY 61. Jegersmart says: February 4, 2016 at 5:04 pm I took a few pct profit on XBI and flat on SPX, the rallies are quite heavily sold into so I want to be more neutral right now. J REPLY 1. Barry says: February 4, 2016 at 7:06 pm I just came here to relay my thoughts here, and I see you’ve pretty much beat me to it… I’m long, and holding at about 38% net long, but the market does indeed look heavy here, and it wouldn’t take much for both my system to reverse back to short, nor for me to get rid of these longs and get short again… Regardless, still holding long, but very unimpressed today….

REPLY 62. Peter_ says: February 4, 2016 at 6:56 pm US$ finally finally breaks from extended e wave, kickstarts $gold break out. Good as gold for preserving the buying power of rapidly shrinking dollar value. http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/ China not open all next week – but its in the bounce or continue zone – needs watching for a trigger effect. The bull cycle fail mode portends significantly more drama than all this fiddle faddling, but focus appears to be in the currency markets for now. REPLY 1. Valley says: February 5, 2016 at 1:10 am Thanks, Peter! Good summary and info about China being closed next week.

REPLY 63. Valley says: February 5, 2016 at 1:08 am My guess is that tomorrow (Friday) will open up slightly, and then sell off significantly; further selling into next Thursday. Won’t short at these levels, but will buy with leverage if we reach 1700 to 1750 on spx. Election years usually chop into summer and finish very strong. So 1700 excellent entry for a long term buy and hold. 2004 is nice analog, with chop into summer, and rally into December. REPLY 1. John Li says: February 5, 2016 at 3:50 am I agree, but why not short to 1750? REPLY 2. Barry says: February 5, 2016 at 6:08 am Well,I’m going to disagree with Valley… Obviously, the market can do ANYTHING short-term, but after looking through charts tonight – like every night – they’re telling me “higher” right now… I don’t have a time, nor a price expectation in mind, but just holding long and believe that’s the side to be on, right now… As well, and to John Li’s point, you must not believe too strongly in your own forecast, because to me, if I was sure the SPX was going to 1700, you can bet I’d be shorting the piss out of it… And the problem is, it just seems like ~everybody~ wants to be short right now… And my charts just aren’t telling me that… REPLY 1. Barry says: February 5, 2016 at 6:12 am And looks like I got a new avatar… I like it!! Critical eye, and all… Or am I just the one-eyed man, who just see’s half of what every one else see’s? Uh-ohhhh… REPLY 2. Krish says: February 5, 2016 at 9:17 am My charts also suggest a move higher short term but the market can change direction very quickly so I’m being a little cautious just relying fully on charts. REPLY 3. John Li says: February 5, 2016 at 9:22 pm Barry, re:”And the problem is, it just seems like ~everybody~ wants to be short right now… ” Where did you get that sense? I think everybody is afraid to short right now. REPLY 3. John says: February 5, 2016 at 10:33 am Hi Valley if that is the scenario then we will see a bumpy ride ahead. The currency markets USD-Yen and USD-EURO do not look very promising The bradley siderograph can also fit in this scenario interesting also the big run up after the summer. Bumpy chart 2004… REPLY 1. Valley says: February 6, 2016 at 1:28 am Nice chart. 2004 was also Year of Monkey, which every 12 years. 1992, 1980, 1968. If you look at each of these years they were not bullish. Monkey is smartest animal, and if market takes on that trait, could be difficult to trade effectively this year. Lot’s of snap back rallies that are fake outs, and deep sell offs that test the bulls. REPLY 1. John says: February 6, 2016 at 3:12 pm Thanks, I lived with a Monkey for a a long time not my favourite animal but they are smart and calculated when you think you have figured them out the season is already changing.. The Monkey business song LOL…

So if mister market is like that sell high buy low haha.. Mahendra is getting a little bit nervous but is still bullish his advice is to buy this monday again. http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/userfiles/files/5_february_2016_daily_flashnews_with_day_trading_range_&_strategy.pdf Good weekend to all..

64. Jegersmart says: February 5, 2016 at 11:55 am Just look at all those lovely points to bag……but that’s the tricky part haha. J

REPLY 65. Allan says: February 5, 2016 at 1:49 pm USD chart looks really ominous. Been saying it for nearly 18 months. Aussie gold stocks began outperforming in November 2014 signalling that gold and silver were pretty muchin a bottoming/ basing pattern. Since then many ASX listed junior/mid tier gold stocks have been 5-10 baggers or more in a few cases. The USD dollar was and still is the most crowded and lopsided trade I can ever remember and it is going DOWN with a HUGE thud http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p57902728959 REPLY 1. GM says: February 5, 2016 at 9:04 pm Hello Allan. So you think the Yen, Euro and Sterling etc are all better bets than the USD? Curious why? REPLY 1. Allan says: February 6, 2016 at 10:09 am US is the most indebted nation on the planet. They are going to struggle just to meet their social security bill not to mention their massive military budget. Certainly the Yen,Euro and Pound have tneir own issues but the USD is sittimg on a perch that is incrementally far higher. US share markets have attracted masiveinflows of foreign capital in recent years similar to the period following the Asian currency crisis and the lead up to the dot com bubble. Just as the bursting of that bubble saw massive outflows of capital from the US post dot com era, that overwhelmed any US Bond buying and led to a USD collapse and gold surge, so to are about to see a similar scenario unfold. This time around however, it will be far more pronounced as USD speculator positions are at extremes and whilst most are anticipating a post GFC dollar surge, this time is NOT to be compared. REPLY 1. Allan says: February 6, 2016 at 10:16 am GM I will just add to the above by saying why are people expecting the USD to make substantially higher highs anyway? A look at the very long term chart of the dollar shows it to be in a MAJOR bear market that began in 1985 after topping at just over 164. It seems totally bizarre to me that anyone would expect higher highs in what is clearly a long term chart that is making lower lows. Couple this with my points above and the dollar is set to shock and awe! 2. GM says: February 6, 2016 at 3:03 pm We agree on the long-term dollar demise Allan, but I think for a couple of years it will surprise you to the upside, due to eurodollar tightness (after a little fakeout plunge shortly maybe), and being perceived as the strongest horse in the glue factory. The US has a load of debt, but others will reach a crunch before the US, in my opinion.

66. Peter_ says: February 5, 2016 at 8:33 pm Support for SPX now on the historical side. Green news feeds the arm (ageddon) of the bear. When the Fed is seen to be on the very right side with caution the self-feeding complex unwind gets very big momentum. But then some think I’m just over-bearing.

REPLY 67. John Li says: February 5, 2016 at 11:12 pm So Bradley has come and gone. Is it a top or bottom? Sunspots have come back too. Interesting. I am bearish through next week, but I have little positions overnight.

REPLY 68. GM says: February 5, 2016 at 11:40 pm I sold some actual physical gold today, the funds will be redeployed into gold miners following subscription to Brent Cook’s service, hopefully after a gold price decline to marginal new lows. REPLY 1. Valley says: February 6, 2016 at 4:52 am Bob Hoye is buying gold miners on dips, and believes the real price of gold will rise and gold miners from here will have advantage vs. all other asset classes. REPLY 1. GM says: February 6, 2016 at 3:06 pm Yes, in the 30s miners did 10x, in the 70s it was 22x, from these levels over 10-15 years, 30-40x is likely. I’m speculating at the junior explorer end of the spectrum, as reward potential is huge, assuming gold turns up shortly and oil stays down.

REPLY 69. Valley says: February 6, 2016 at 1:32 am Monday may be up day, will peal off my long calls on strength and re buy on weakness. I believe next week will finish way up, with bottom on Thursday. So buying short term calls lotto tickets on Thursday may be a good recipe. REPLY 1. John Li says: February 6, 2016 at 1:49 am Good call on Friday/today. Are you still calling for selling till Thursday? But now, Thursday and Friday are up big, so that despite the selloff, we end up way up. Pre-holiday rallies are frequent, but that is one wild swing from possibly 1700-1750 as per your earlier post. REPLY 1. Valley says: February 6, 2016 at 2:55 am Thanks, John. Sell offs are elevator, rallies are stairs. While PALS is mostly positive next week, I am guessing Fed speech Wednesday will be for more rate hikes, and market will bottom Thursday at 1750.

REPLY 70. Pulp says: February 6, 2016 at 8:11 pm We like a good bit of solar impact on the stock market or astrology..https://twitter.com/platypusfoot has suggested 20-22 Feb as being a “hit heavily”

REPLY 71. Barry says: February 7, 2016 at 4:24 pm To Reply to John Li: I replied yesterday, but for some reason it never posted.. ???? (maybe the two links included screwed it up?) Anyway, I stand by what I said earlier, that the strong majority of the many charts I go through every night have three similar things going on… 1 – Price declining – It’s driving more people to pessimism on the market going forward… There are a number of sentiment gauges that are low.. Not really something that’s definitive, but certainly one piece of the puzzle for me.. Also, I use pretty much the same template to look at all my charts, so I can see trends developing as a whole, to get a general “feel” for the market… And on this template there are two indicators… 2 – Money-Flow: Pretty much to a chart, MF has been trending higher for a couple of weeks now… As prices have been fluctuating and moving lower, MF is going up, in some cases strongly… 3 – SA-RSI: I also follow a self-adjusting RSI indicator… The parameters adjust based upon volatility. Again, almost to a chart, the indicator is on the bottom of the range (another way of quantifying and confirming for me the pessimism in the market) And when you put those all together, and you’re seeing the same thing over and over, it just confirms to me that being long is the way to be right now… Certainly, that didn’t work Friday, but again, looking at the charts, MF was STILL going up, even Friday… So that’s the way I’m playing it… I am up to 45% net long going into Monday… The market changes all the time, so that may (will?) change a week or a month from now, but I’ve learned (still learning?) to trade what I ~do~ see, not what I ~want~ to see…. Hope that helps clarify my position… REPLY 1. John Li says: February 8, 2016 at 5:21 am Thanks I get it now. I don’t mean any disrespect BTW. There is enough pain in P&L to worry about. Your sentiment measures #2 and #3 are based on technical price/volume. My statement was just based on the investors I track, and they have been waiting for S&P to hit 2000 (even though now less sure than before). Indeed, I can see myself agreeing with them too — if 8/2007 looks like 8/2015, and 1/2008 looks like 1/2016, we WOULD hit 2000 on S&P by 5/2016. I have no positions in US stocks overnight. I am short China.

REPLY 72. jegersmart says: February 7, 2016 at 11:08 pm I had to leave early on Friday so put in a limit long SPX at 1865 which did not hit. Depending on how it looks over night I may cancel that order and see if we can reclaim 1900 odd before making a further move on SPX. I am considering a longer term short on Nasdaq 100 though, I think that has the biggest downside potential. Let’s see what tomorrow brings…. good luck all. J

REPLY 73. GM says: February 8, 2016 at 12:12 am Watch those fibos. I was 3 days early in October.

REPLY 74. Valley says: February 8, 2016 at 5:24 am SPX futures are up Sunday night after Super Bowl. Given PALS being positive on all four aspects from Mon to Wed, and Fed speech on Wed; I am going to keep a small long position into Fed speech, in case we get a 3% rally into Wed. REPLY 1. 17.6 years stock market cycle says: February 8, 2016 at 11:41 am Hi Valley, I have been keeping a record of my lunar short term cycle which uses elements of PALS (distance, dec, phase) and it is working nicely over the period (at the moment) although it doesn’t nail tops/bottoms. Today is the start of a roughly 2 week bullish period to 19th Feb, although I have 11th as a possible low this week. I am long from 5730. Dates and past performance since Sept 2015 to 22 Jan are here, it has trounced the FTSE and Dow http://www.17yearstockmarketcycle.com/ Dow: +2216 points during bullish periods vs actual +779 FTSE: +1085 points during bullish periods vs actual +6 Regards, Kerry

REPLY 1. Valley says: February 8, 2016 at 8:38 pm Declination seems like the most useful of the three. I track it closely and while it doesn’t work every month, and bear markets are tricky, over time it allows a real advantage. Distance is good also, with apogees tending to be weak month after month. Phase seems to invert during bear markets. Such as todays new moon selling off so much. Glad you are statistically measuring the results, very useful. REPLY 2. John says: February 8, 2016 at 1:33 pm Hi Valley, So what now? At opening Europe, SP fut sold off sharply do you still think we will recover from here into the Fed? Thursday is also a Mercury day could be the low anyway I sold my shorts.. Dark pools covered there shorts last friday. Good luck.. REPLY 1. John Li says: February 8, 2016 at 2:13 pm Happy Chinese New Year indeed. (We follow the moon…) REPLY 1. Valley says: February 8, 2016 at 8:33 pm I am expecting a rally sometime between now and next Friday back above 1900, so am fully long until we reach that price. If this goes deep sell off mode, will add to long position in SPY on the way down, hoping for seasonal rallies into April. 2. John says: February 9, 2016 at 4:02 pm Mahe.. expects this cycle to be volatile with bounces up and down til begin March after that it’s up..He was spot on calling a shortterm bottom Januari 20.. So I think top about SPX 1950 bottom arround the levels or somewhat lower Monkey Business…

REPLY 75. GM says: February 8, 2016 at 11:51 am I think gold has topped short-term, so just opened a small short position via a 3x ETF, will add in days ahead. Trade only, I’m still a long-term bull.

REPLY 76. eclectic says: February 8, 2016 at 12:11 pm GM are you eventually looking for new lows for gold? ( not sure on this one yet. http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/c7SJn

REPLY 52. stormchaser80 says: February 29, 2016 at 12:47 am Important Sunday update! https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com

REPLY 53. Krish says: February 29, 2016 at 4:06 pm Pump pump pump. Bulls take the lead today. Even a massively oversupplied crude oil market is rallying. Storm chaser post agrees with my thinking. I’ll start layering in shorts this week as we continue to rise.

REPLY 54. Barry says: February 29, 2016 at 4:13 pm Mark? A few months ago you seemed to think very strongly that the market being above 2065 was very important. Obviously, we haven’t been anywhere near that number for over 2 months now, and in fact over 10% lower from that number at times… Could you please follow-up and explain how that number doesn’t matter any longer, or ?? I’m sure it would be a service to the board… Thanks!

REPLY 55. Barry says: February 29, 2016 at 6:40 pm Just a brief update (and not sure if any care, and CLEARLY it annoys a few others), but after selling short a bit more, I’m up to 49% net short… Looking for around 1970-ish for the next layer of shorts… Losing money today, but the large majority of that loss is actually a short on gold stocks, via “DUST”… After looking at charts over the weekend, I still believe that’s the correct side to be on regarding gold stocks, and DUST is a bit of a hedge on the physicals and gold stocks I own, but clearly a “small win, larger loss” on my gold position today, GL REPLY 1. John Li says: February 29, 2016 at 7:57 pm Thanks Barry. I do care. GL. REPLY 2. Valley says: February 29, 2016 at 11:45 pm Thanks, Barry. Your trades are of interest.

REPLY 56. Krish says: March 1, 2016 at 8:45 am Wow what a rally this morning. Seems people woke up this morning and thought “Lets forget the last last two months and carry on with the bull market”. Gone with small shorts on dax and ftse and hope to build if the market starts dropping.

REPLY 57. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 1:54 pm

REPLY 58. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 1:55 pm

REPLY 59. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 1:55 pm

REPLY 60. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 1:56 pm

REPLY 61. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 1:57 pm

REPLY 62. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 1:57 pm

REPLY 63. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 1:58 pm

REPLY 64. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 1:58 pm

REPLY 65. Chien-Jen says: March 1, 2016 at 2:06 pm

REPLY 66. purvez says: March 1, 2016 at 4:36 pm On the DJIA, Friday’s ramp, yesterday’s drop and today’s ramp look very much like a nicely formed EW ‘flat’ wave. On the 5 minute chart I’m just waiting for a down wave and then I’ll take a short there with a stop just above that 5 minute wave. Oops got to go…looks like it’s happening now. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 1, 2016 at 5:56 pm Well that turned out to be ‘all of nothing’. I’m still expecting it to break down provided it stays below 16840. We’ll just have to wait and waste some time….and some money too.

REPLY 67. Jegersmart says: March 1, 2016 at 4:55 pm Well, still long positions in QQQ, short GLD, GDX, long a handful of US equities and some March calls SPX are just coming into the money. I stated I had an ideal target of around 107 on Q’s, may start to shave some off as there is 5% or so profit on all of those (or say 18% profit on pot). It would obviously be ideal if GLD/GDX retraced hard whilst the rest kept on climbing – but suspect I won’t get that lucky. J

REPLY 68. Barry says: March 1, 2016 at 5:07 pm 1968 here on SPX… Starting the next layer of shorts…. #howtoloseevenmoremoneyquickly

REPLY 69. Barry says: March 1, 2016 at 5:09 pm And fortunately, after complaining about the lack of posts, it’s good to see Mark really step it up and add useful posts to the blog…. Oh wait…..

REPLY 70. Jegersmart says: March 1, 2016 at 5:21 pm Oh, the disservice…….

REPLY 71. Pulp says: March 1, 2016 at 5:31 pm Dax 1 day – 5 EMA & 43 SMA cross over just about to cross back up http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/3WWJn

REPLY 72. Valley says: March 1, 2016 at 5:41 pm My bullish “thesis” was confirmed this week into “Super Tuesday” sold long position at mid afternoon high on Tuesday. Now am changing to a bearish “thesis” but want to wait until price reaches 2000 on spx or higher before implementing it. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 1, 2016 at 6:01 pm Congrats Valley, your calls came very good today. I’m also waiting to short as per my ramblings elsewhere. I feel we are pretty near a 50-100 point drop on the DJIA at a minimum although I’d hope for better. REPLY 1. Valley says: March 1, 2016 at 8:20 pm Thanks, Purvez. Will watch how your short set up plays out.

REPLY 73. Barry says: March 1, 2016 at 6:37 pm Alrighty, the ~1970~ level shorts have been acquired, and holding open losses…. I was starting to wonder if we’d ever see this level again on this trade cycle, so happy we finally got up here… REALLY wanted those positions, and it’s been killing me to watch it keep banging back and forth between 1960 and 1930 these past few days… Regardless, good job, Jegers and Valley, for holding onto my money today… I’m gettin’ it back, you know….

REPLY 74. jegersmart says: March 1, 2016 at 7:36 pm Have taken about 70% of the QQQ longs off the table and the stops are in on the rest. Not much else has changed, added a scout short position on a couple of airlines. J

REPLY 75. purvez says: March 1, 2016 at 7:59 pm A 300+ points rally on the DJIA on a day without any major news says this ‘bull’ ain’t rolling over to play dead….yet. Although the divergences on the RSI etc are now stretched to breaking point so I guess we get an overnight correction of ‘some sort’. Well done to all those who called the ‘bullish’ tone here. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: March 1, 2016 at 9:03 pm Markets do react to news but through the process of buying / selling…..today and the last few days there has been buying – there is no need for news to trigger this imho. We recently landed at or slightly overshot support and as there was no follow through buying resulted. Let’s see what happens for the rest of the week….. J

REPLY 76. GM says: March 1, 2016 at 9:45 pm Big picture ES, it’s not really broken yet, the bull lives on. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SIWGGpvO/ REPLY 1. GM says: March 1, 2016 at 9:56 pm Close up… https://www.tradingview.com/x/BOCPlate/ We may not quite tag 2000 before heading down to the fib/trend-line at 1789. Eventually I think we’ll get back up to c.2100. REPLY 2. Krish says: March 2, 2016 at 8:52 am im not convinced the bull is intact but I agree that if we keep retracing 95% of all steep falls we can’t have a proper bear market. More of a very slow decline that will take years to play out.

REPLY 77. Jegersmart says: March 2, 2016 at 9:17 am Sold my last QQQ positions just now at 106, just fyi. Shorted some Glencore just now, looks like some divergences and apex of rising wedge could indicate a retrace. First target around 120p. GLA J

REPLY 78. purvez says: March 2, 2016 at 4:28 pm One of the sites that GM introduced to us was the following: http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilontheory/post/2016/02/19/the-silver-age-of-the-central-banker I would urge people here to check out the article above as well as the one following it. If at all, you are a film buff, then it’s a double whammy….but I’ll let you find out that ‘bit’ yourself.

REPLY 79. purvez says: March 2, 2016 at 7:39 pm When I zigged IT zagged. When I zagged IT zigged!! IT being the DJIA today. I’m down 7 points and very tired BUT I HATE being down. Equally in these situations my ego just gets a bigger bruising if I try and fight any more. So I bid you all (and the DJIA) G’Evening and retire to contemplate on my navel in my dark corner. As Jeger said, we’ll see what the rest of the week brings

REPLY 80. purvez says: March 2, 2016 at 8:39 pm This is what I’m seeing on the DJIA at the moment: http://postimg.org/image/fw6ibdn0d/ So I’m expecting another ramp higher towards 17200 before it starts to crumble. G’luck to All. REPLY 1. GM says: March 2, 2016 at 10:39 pm Raise you a wedge (mine’s bigger): https://www.tradingview.com/x/WM4x19wf/ REPLY 1. GM says: March 2, 2016 at 10:41 pm I like the symmetry with last year, and timing of the top would coincide with valley’s end of March thoughts. Watch out bears, squeeeeeze ahead. REPLY 2. purvez says: March 3, 2016 at 7:41 am Hehe GM, you boasting? If what you are suggesting comes to pass then we could be in a LARGE choppy range for most of 2016. In fact the recent 2016 lows would then make the correction from last May a huge 3 waver ‘A’ and then your up wave would be a ‘B’ and we would then need, at a minimum, a ‘C’……although it could extend into a triangle and need a ‘D’ & ‘E’ as well. I’d be drooling at that prospect!! I might even become a ‘swing trader’ during that period.

REPLY 81. Valley says: March 2, 2016 at 10:43 pm PALS next four days: Phase: + Distance: + Declination: tomorrow far south -, then + Seasonals: + + Planets: – – 10 mo cycle: – Fed Effect: ramp up, so it can ramp down into opex week’s fed meeting Summary: March seasonals are unusually good especially when price is below Dec 31 closing price. Was expecting sell off today which didn’t show. Planets not good. So, keeping a tiny long position in SPY calls for probable continuation rally into next Tuesday price 2020. Thanks to Purvez for his transparency in sharing his experience today. Barry for taking the other side of Jegers trade. And to Jegers for being correct again. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 3, 2016 at 7:55 am Thanks Valley for acknowledging my little moan. It’s good to be part of a caring community I’m just reviewing yesterday’s action and it reminds me of a ‘petulant child’ that is hell bent on breaking all the rules (EW ones in this case). No wonder I was frazzled last night. Haha. REPLY 2. carpediem01site says: March 3, 2016 at 9:15 am Hi Valley, I think the uptrend is exhausted for now and we will decline a bit into the March 10 timeframe after that it’s up again direction March 23. REPLY 1. Valley says: March 3, 2016 at 11:33 pm Thanks, Carpe. I have opposite view, up until March 9 and then down into 23rd, yet, nice to have your opposing perspective. REPLY 1. Gary says: March 4, 2016 at 12:50 pm Valley, does your system work with bonds/interest rates? 2. carpediem01site says: March 4, 2016 at 3:49 pm Thank you Valley I agree it can flip coins so still waiting in moderation what march 9 will be ? 3. Valley says: March 4, 2016 at 9:30 pm Not tested bonds or interest rates. Doubt correlation as good as with equities.

82. Jegersmart says: March 3, 2016 at 8:22 am It should be noted that I am currently wrong on GLD/GDX and Glencore:) Just for balance…. J REPLY 1. GM says: March 3, 2016 at 12:24 pm Jeger, it’s curious how gold and GDX is holding up into the rally in equities isn’t it? Something has to give soon I think, either equities take a swoon, or gold does.

REPLY 83. purvez says: March 3, 2016 at 2:03 pm Today’s pre-market action has me a bit worried. Following from the wedge formation that I showed yesterday evening I was expecting the pre-market action today to start ramping higher. Since it hasn’t it may be that we are lining up for a ‘fail’ of the last wave up. If the DJIA drops much below 16800 (it’s at 16880ish as I write) then that would make me believe that the last wave failed.

REPLY 84. Barry says: March 3, 2016 at 3:23 pm Other than the Gold short Jegers got me into – hahahaha – JK, things are “on schedule” for me… I’m prepared for a bit higher prices, but certainly this week has been painful… But wanted to mention something in the area of HY… Part of my trading system use HY prices for an indicator… Obviously, they’ve been on a tear higher lately… That said, sometimes the ROC gets ~too~ high, and that usually happens several times a year… Obviously, overbought, in this case, it flashed a warning signal to me two nights ago, and and even stronger (at a level that rarely happens) warning signal last night… That last signal – the second stronger signal – was at a level that is usually a turning point in the stock market… Doesn’t ~have~ to be, but…. FWIW…

REPLY 85. scott says: March 3, 2016 at 4:07 pm doesn’t a puetz crash window open in the next 10 days? solar eclipse 3.8.16 lunar eclipse 3.23.16 REPLY 1. scott says: March 3, 2016 at 4:08 pm could be a signifcant top tuesday into a nice low in the next 3 weeks. solar top / lunar bottom REPLY 2. pimaCanyon says: March 3, 2016 at 6:37 pm looks like it: window opens around first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. window is 6 days before to 3 days after the full moon

REPLY 86. Jegersmart says: March 3, 2016 at 4:53 pm Ha ha Barry – I keep reminding everyone that I am as wrong as anyone else:) Feeling squeezed today, half my Glencore longs got stopped for 3% loss, still holding the rest and ofc GLD/GDX have a firm grasp of my sack. Not painful, but firm enough to just be slightly uncomfortable:) I have some US equity longs that are nicely in profit, a couple of short airline stocks mildy under water but am net short now – even if not the indices yet. Just shorted USO at 9.26 with 9.45 stop – looking for about 8.5 area on that one. More inventory builds, especially Gulf Coast – EIA should confirm next week. Tight stop though so a low risk (and therefore low probability of success?:)) trade. Sitting tight mainly for now. J REPLY 1. Barry says: March 3, 2016 at 5:58 pm Hi Jegers; Yes, I too think oil has about run it’s course for this rally, so shorted oil stocks (via ERY) earlier this week.. I was looking for the 34-35 (oil) area as a top, but we’re still here, so “no bueno” here (yet) for me either… Lot of red on my run sheet today….and this week….

REPLY 87. John Li says: March 3, 2016 at 4:59 pm JH, I hope you are feeling better…

REPLY 88. John Li says: March 3, 2016 at 5:00 pm I have completely given up on shorting. This means a major peak in 1 month…I know, not much help. Tick tock. I will be fashionably late, Barry. REPLY 1. Barry says: March 3, 2016 at 5:42 pm John, I’m hoping it means a major peak ~today~…. Obviously no offense meant, but I’m sure you can appreciate my thought… Markets ~have~ to squeeze shorts (to liquidate) before they can go down (and vice-versa).. Otherwise, the ~wrong~ people have the correct positions… :-O And professional traders don’t like that… At. All… The only question is when is it “enough”, before the turn can be made… I think we’re close, and maybe it’s here, but this slow, little sideways movement trading the past few hours tells me it’s ~not~ right here… *big sigh* REPLY 1. John Li says: March 3, 2016 at 8:11 pm No offense. I completely think that a peak today is possible — it is within my one month window. I am just on the beach right now, so why ruin it…

REPLY 89. GM says: March 3, 2016 at 5:26 pm Gold 60 minute, could be a cup and handle pattern, which would target 1320 ish. http://screencast.com/t/nRlHo7h3 I am tempted to short FTSE a little tomorrow, but there’s a fib just below, I suspect it’s just going to test it, then resume upward, so I’ll probably sit it out, wimpishly.

REPLY 90. Jegersmart says: March 3, 2016 at 5:39 pm wimpishly is quite often “wisely” J

REPLY 91. purvez says: March 3, 2016 at 7:29 pm Here’s a picture from yesterday’s pre-market high on the DJIA till today. Yesterday I was complaining about the ‘back and forth’ action. Well the ‘fog’ is clearing now. I think it is one of my favourite waves to ‘hate’….a triangle. So I think as long as (b) doesn’t get violated to the ‘top side’ then we’ll have an (e) down before the final ‘thrust’ up towards 169200. http://postimg.org/image/6nj680pg3/ REPLY 1. GM says: March 3, 2016 at 7:37 pm Mother of all short squeezes there Purvez, up to Dow 169,200. Dollar collapse so soon eh? REPLY 1. purvez says: March 4, 2016 at 8:38 am Hehe GM, I hadn’t noticed the extra zero last night. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 4, 2016 at 8:39 am Ha! I’m all over the place here. The real number should be 17,200. Apologies. 2. purvez says: March 3, 2016 at 8:09 pm Aaaaah Weeeeeelll!! Ce la vie. No ‘triangle’ this time round either….but I still believe that the next wave will be down….soon. It’s just running a bit late… like the railways. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 3, 2016 at 8:24 pm Just to be clear here. Since it’s no longer a triangle I’m no longer expecting another wave higher. The next wave (provided it doesn’t go above the start of (a) will be a third wave down. …..BUT recently ALL my prognoses have been plain WRONG!! (read that last word in TRUMP sized ‘UGE caps please). REPLY 1. Krish says: March 3, 2016 at 8:44 pm As a bear I have thrown on the towel. There you go purvez….my words should mark a market top

92. jegersmart says: March 3, 2016 at 10:38 pm Well, the Q’s didn’t participate in that at all……..hmmmmm:) J REPLY 1. John Li says: March 4, 2016 at 12:33 am There is always tomorrow.

REPLY 93. Pulp says: March 4, 2016 at 7:40 am My colleague bought gold with his pension money 12 months ago, then last week before Christmas through in the towel…and sold and bought some stocks. I did say to him, perhaps you should keep that gold for a little longer…. REPLY 1. GM says: March 4, 2016 at 12:19 pm That is such a sad story Pulp. On both sides he will curse his timing. If he wants to get in touch with me, I’ll turn him back to the good side.

REPLY 94. Peter_ says: March 4, 2016 at 8:51 am So $USindex finale done? I think so. And the B wave in the bear done? for SMI it sure looks like it. Start the parade down Main Street straight after tea time. http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/ REPLY 1. GM says: March 4, 2016 at 12:39 pm Peter_, I draw my fibs from the highs last summer, means a bit more rallying ahead on the indices. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: March 4, 2016 at 6:31 pm Faux pas come and go – its all a game of guesswork in the finalysis (patent pending) But if SMI 8046.5 is broken, then I will give the bull a little grazing to fatten up a bit before letting the hungry bear return. Otherwise this is the bear in that chair in your lounge – just there. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 4, 2016 at 9:09 pm Thanks for the end of the week chuckle Peter_.

95. Pulp says: March 4, 2016 at 10:46 am Dax has a three day narrowing wedge: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/u7jJn. More likely to break upwards(?)

REPLY 96. Jegersmart says: March 4, 2016 at 11:03 am Looks more like a triangle to me, certainly not a wedge quitelike the one I like to trade:) I just went short IWM with a fairly tight stop. J

REPLY 97. pulp says: March 4, 2016 at 11:08 am Jegersmart, yep-corrected..triangle

REPLY 98. GM says: March 4, 2016 at 12:25 pm Gold just rejected by a BIG OLD fib level. http://screencast.com/t/Qa75dxot I’m too scared to short it though! (But will short Ftse at 6260 next week for the ride down to 5,200). REPLY 1. Krish says: March 4, 2016 at 4:36 pm which will be followed by a rally back to 6000 as per the usual BTFD trend. REPLY 2. Krish says: March 4, 2016 at 4:38 pm Also looks like oil has confirmed a bottom. Wont rule out a dip to $30 again but those predictions of oil in the teens are history. REPLY 1. GM says: March 4, 2016 at 6:11 pm Like your confidence Krish, but I suspect lower lows to come for oil in the next year or two, as the mighty (euro)dollar is squeezed ever higher versus the other currencies. Deflation in full force, until the golden emergency button is pressed by Mr Draghi in due course.

REPLY 99. GM says: March 4, 2016 at 4:17 pm Question for the EWavers please. From the 11th February low, how many waves back up so far for the FTSE100? I reckon this is only the 3rd, and therefore a brief dip for 4th, and a final high for the 5th. But EW not my forte. Nor trading, but I am starting to lick my lips if FTSE futures reach 6260. Thanks, have a good weekend everyone. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 4, 2016 at 6:05 pm GM, the move up is a corrective move and hence it will be in 3 parts or multiples thereof. Currently it looks like an ‘a’ upt 18th Feb, an expanded flat ‘b’ down to 24th Feb and a ‘c’ in progress which in itself should be in 5 waves. Wave (i) ended on 26th Feb with (ii) ending on 1st Mar. The action since then is debatable. One option is that (iii) & (iv) both occurred on 2nd Mar and we are now working on the (v) up. However I personally don’t subscribe to that view as the look of (iii) is suspect and it is smaller than (i), which would then require (v) to be smaller still. I think wave (iii) is going to extend and therefore the 2nd Mar top is just a subwave [i] of (iii). Anyway we should get to 6260 on this basis and I would be inclined to assess at that time whether all waves (i)-(v) have completed or not. Hope this helps. REPLY 1. GM says: March 4, 2016 at 6:08 pm That is very helpful p, many thanks.

REPLY 00. jegersmart says: March 4, 2016 at 5:40 pm I don’t know, but good weekend – let’s see what next week brings – this week has not been great, first time in a while so should be welcomed….or so I tell myself lol. J REPLY 1. purvez says: March 4, 2016 at 7:44 pm Yes this week has been trying…at least 3 out of the 5 days. Now this is something that I never expected to say but the intrusion by the ‘non-farm payroll’ data steadied the markets. Since the pre-market high the waves have been text book. I had to keep pinching myself. Now I’m blue in a very ‘delicate spot’. ;-p Still It was worth it REPLY 1. purvez says: March 4, 2016 at 7:49 pm I really should ‘EDIT’ what I write before hitting the ‘Post’ button. THAT sounds extremely rude. All I was referring to was my under chin….still OUCH! REPLY 1. GM says: March 4, 2016 at 8:13 pm LOL, please don’t edit purvez, I’d miss the giggles. Get some creme on that ‘spot’ now.

01. Pulp says: March 4, 2016 at 8:41 pm Not quite finished yet:Dow http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/48jJn REPLY 1. purvez says: March 4, 2016 at 9:05 pm Yes Pulp, 17200 still beckons although this evenings reversal from around 17060 has a 5 waver to the down side on the 5 minute chart so I’m still expecting something lower than 16945ish at a minimum, before it starts up. It may happen in overnight trade on Sunday. However the 5 waver may be signalling something a bit more ‘elongated’ than just a move below 16945. In the words of the (in)famous Jeger, let’s see what next week brings.

REPLY 02. Valley says: March 4, 2016 at 9:48 pm PALS suggests SPX: Monday: end day at 2000 to 2020 Tuesday: end day at 2000 to 2040 Wednesday: beginning of day at 2050, end of day at 2050 Thursday: end day at 2020 Friday: end day at 2010

Summary: maintained full position Friday at close with price of 2000. Will sell full position on Wednesday or when 2050 is achieved. Will short half position at 2050 or Wednesdays close and keep into next weekend. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 7, 2016 at 9:44 am Valley, thanks again for your posts. Targets are even more welcome although I’m intrigued as to how you arrive at those from the PALS system. Is this something that you are willing to share, please? Thanks REPLY 1. Valley says: March 7, 2016 at 10:35 pm Your are welcome, Purvez. I use PALS and then based upon its swing trade and daily component project what a likely beginning or ending price might be. REPLY 2. carpediem01site says: March 10, 2016 at 8:33 am Hey Valley did you sell your longs yesterday at close?

REPLY 03. scott says: March 4, 2016 at 9:54 pm hope John is still reviewing his blog from time to time….maybe i have had my bear goggles on too long, but this sure feels and looks like Jan 6 2009. another 2nd chance for the masses to liquidate. what globally is there to be bullish on? global debt? NIRP ? nat gas at 16 year lows and oil at 36 still crushes oil and gas and other nations. when markets/economies have been week, the puetz window can open up even wider than normal. the move to the 61.8 retracement and touch off the 200 ma seemed mechanical. is there a rug pull in the works? a chain reaction bankruptcy? north korea, something to trigger a black swan waterfall? now i sound desperate! REPLY 1. Valley says: March 4, 2016 at 10:04 pm Scott, I have no idea as PALS is a short term buying and selling system. However, if I were to guess, I would guess that we have a sustained commodity rally and tame equity upward move into the November elections. REPLY 2. Pulp says: March 5, 2016 at 10:40 am I’m conscious of the Peggy mid 1800s Mid March target, but it does seem like a sharp decline from where we are at the moment.

REPLY 04. jegersmart says: March 5, 2016 at 2:46 pm We are in a downtrend, would not be surprised to see mid 1800’s and more over the comign weeks and months. imho J

REPLY 05. stormchaser80 says: March 5, 2016 at 3:40 pm My detailed updated thoughts are here: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/ REPLY 1. Peter_ says: March 5, 2016 at 7:49 pm Layme man, no slay me, no play me doo Fah. Just a layman having a lay spasm. Doo Dah. Doos – whatever etc as detailed

REPLY 06. Pulp says: March 5, 2016 at 7:55 pm I pass this info on: http://uk.businessinsider.com/john-burbank-utimco-comments-2016-3?r=US&IR=T

REPLY 07. GM says: March 6, 2016 at 12:53 pm http://trader-moe.com/nymo-and-the-spx-on-january-6-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-35669 Interesting comment re NYAD line, something to keep an eye on next week.

REPLY 08. Krish says: March 7, 2016 at 8:18 am Long FTSE at 6205. Targeting 6400 this month. May coincide with new ATH’s in US indices. REPLY 1. GM says: March 7, 2016 at 1:37 pm Despite the short-term dip from your buy point, I reckon we’ll see ES up to 2040 sometime this week (FTSE 6,300 maybe), or maybe a spike into FOMC next week. I have a feeling that a quick nasty short squeeze at the wedge apex is *planned*, but the plunge to follow that spike would be sharp and deep. If we get the spike, I’ll go 300% short, if not, maybe only 299% short. Good luck everyone.

REPLY 09. purvez says: March 7, 2016 at 2:21 pm Here’s an ultra-short term wave count that I’m currently following on the DJIA. The (a) on the chart is the low from the spike high after the non-farm payroll report on Friday. http://postimg.org/image/xg5e43975/ If you ‘understand’ the chart then you will know that I’m once again looking for that ‘Elusive triangle’. So once (d) is over we should get an (e) down towards 16960ish before we get the major crank UPwards. Of course the ‘breakdown’ point is (c). Fair warning regulars here know my track record with the ‘Elusive triangle’.

REPLY 10. purvez says: March 7, 2016 at 2:48 pm For ‘Scarlet Pimpernel’ aficionados it should read : We seek it here, we seek it there, Those Frenchies seek him everywhere. Is he in heaven? – Is he in hell? That damned, elusive Triangle? With all APOLOGIES to Frenchies…whoever they may be. REPLY 1. GM says: March 7, 2016 at 3:07 pm LOL, very funny. You should take a trip to Bermuda, perfect for you! REPLY 1. purvez says: March 7, 2016 at 3:50 pm Thanks GM, there are very many nicer places in the Caribbean with much lower prices and also MUCH MUCH more fun to be had. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 7, 2016 at 4:30 pm OOOps sorry GM. I JUST ‘now’ got the Bermuda joke. (Blame my 2 brain cells). Yes VERY FUNNY INDEED. Thanks very much for the ‘guffaw’…belated though it was.

11. John Li says: March 7, 2016 at 4:38 pm All I can say about this market is WOW WOW WOW.

REPLY 12. purvez says: March 7, 2016 at 5:53 pm People I hope (although I didn’t mention it) that everyone realised that violation of (d) was also a ‘breadown(up?)’ point. I’ll be more careful to TRY and note ALL breakdown points in the future.

REPLY 13. Specie says: March 7, 2016 at 8:04 pm i haven’t visited in a while – kinda waiting for a new post from john helluva bear market rally very suprised at all the bulls here thought most would be looking for short entry opportunities like me oh well the gold advance has been fun in the last gold bull run from 2001 i had 17 gold stocks taken over the next gold bull run has begun and i already have number 1 take over

REPLY 14. purvez says: March 8, 2016 at 1:59 pm The overnight reversal in the DJIA has a clear 5 waves down on the 5 minute chart. The pre-market counter trend rally is nearing it’s end at 17020ish. May stretch to 17060 but then we’re going to have another down wave which should take us a LOT lower than the 16920 support shelf. For GM….that sadly also means that we are not going to see the 6260 that you were hoping for. As a consolation prize you could go short from current levels of 6165ish with an initial target of 5900 and a stop above 6200. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 8, 2016 at 3:13 pm Of course all the stuff that I was referring to for GM was for the FTSE. I really MUST EDIT!!

REPLY 15. Jegersmart says: March 8, 2016 at 6:33 pm I am on vacation this week just relaxing whilst the other half of my glencore short runs 35% offside haha. I added qqq short positions just now. Gla J

REPLY 16. Mark says: March 8, 2016 at 8:35 pm Barry – you asked me a couple of questions about the 2065 level for SP500, and also how much I’m trading with/profitability etc. 1 – I first explained 2065 being a natural high for SP500 back in late 2011, when it was still under 1365. I said then, and several times since, that there was an 80% chance of SP500 going into a bubble after breaking through 2065. More lately, I’ve said that that probability had increased to 90%, and that still remains my view. You didn’t ask for any explanation of what I was saying back then because you have been shorting repeatedly while SP500 rose from 1365 to 2065 and above, and because you couldn’t conceive that it could go that high (in the same way that you now can’t conceive that it could keep going, with interruptions, until around 2027). Yet you’re showing a very strong interest in 2065 now. 2 – I’ll post a link to my UK ISA in the hope that it will answer your questions about what I’m doing with my own money, and erase any doubts about whether I’m actually trading and investing at all. If you’re keen to check profitability, you can add up all the possible annual subscriptions I could have put into an ISA since they were introduced in 1999 and subtract that from £19,636,306.45. https://www.dropbox.com/s/aeour69jcrwoqis/ISA%2008%20March%202016.bmp?dl=0 REPLY 1. Valley says: March 8, 2016 at 11:49 pm Mark, this could be based upon the 29.5 year cycle: 1929 peak, 1958 peak, 1987 peak. Tho’ there are many more places (emerging markets) for capital to create a bubble than in previous times. So, maybe 1/3 Intl. Including US, 1/3 Emerging, 1/3 Commodities? REPLY 2. John Li says: March 9, 2016 at 5:22 am Impressive. REPLY 3. Barry says: March 9, 2016 at 3:58 pm Mark, you “wing it” when you write things quite a bit, don’t cha’?? My (almost) 89 yo mother does that too, but she’s veering towards Alzheimer’s, so ~she~ has an excuse… Takes one sentence that’s true, and makes a whole paragraph out of it, that has no resemblance to reality….. And quite frankly, if there was an “Ignore” feature on this site, I’d have used it at this point… But alas… Anyway, to tackle your points, first of off, I did ~not~ ask you how much you’re trading with, nor profitability… You made that up… I won’t look at the link you sent, because A) it’s none of my business how much you trade with, B) for all anyone knows you have several accounts, with opposite positions, and show the one you want at the appropriate time, and C) I. Don’t. Care. What I asked for, and would have been more helpful, is a simple: “I’m 80% net long across my accounts (for example), and another 20% long gold”. Or whatever, you’re doing…. And ~I~ don’t show “great interest” in 2065 now… I mentioned it because my question was to ~you~, and it seems very important to ~you~… And I asked if it was still important, now that we’ve been underneath that level for months now… Clearly, we’re NOT going into a “bubble” unless we get back above that, right?? But as of now, we’re ~not~… THAT was the basis of my question… Secondly, I wasn’t HERE back in 2011, and had never even heard of you.. So obviously I “missed out on” your original posting, and contrary to your statement above, I have been trading long AND short for about as long as I can remember… You have ~no idea~ what I was doing in 2011, because again, I wasn’t posting here until the last couple of years (I believe – if anyone wants to find my first post, that would quantify it for everyone) I have been predominantly trading from the short side since I’ve been here however, because I believe that will be the more profitable side going forward, until it’s not, but I have no problem going long when circumstances dictate… Right now, big picture, just not seeing it though… In looking back, it’s clear that ONLY trading from the long side would have been a better choice these last several years, but to claim I’ve only been shorting since 1365 is simply uninformed (the kindest word I could think of).. Third, I can conceive of the market doing just about anything…. With a very “fluid” currency situation – worldwide – I have no doubt the stock market could be worth YUUUGE amounts…. Unfortunately, it might also take YUUUGE amounts to buy a loaf of bread at the same time as well… I’m sure that given enough time, we’ll ALL be billionaires, and stocks will soar…. Just not so sure that makes us all wealthy… *please see Zimbabwe* Anyway, the main point I got out of your note(s) was that, a) 2065 was hit, therefore we’re going into a bubble for the next 10 years; b) you have been, and still are, holding 100% long in anticipation of that, and c) that little squiggle from 2100+ to 1800-ish is insignificant to your outlook, and not even worthy of acknowledgement…. Is all or any of that correct??

REPLY 17. purvez says: March 9, 2016 at 4:21 pm Barry, please may I request, that having said your piece (very eloquently) you let any further comment from Mark pass you by. I, for one, would not want (like) a long drawn out wrangle. There are far ‘better’ sites than this one for ‘discussions’ like that….Dan Eric’s springs to mind but I’ve recently been on a couple of others as well. So for the sake of domestic harmony at this site and world peace, please may I request your indulgence. Many many thanks. REPLY 1. Barry says: March 9, 2016 at 4:55 pm Hi Purvez; Fair point, and I’ll try… It’s the wildly inaccurate statements about me that kindof got me going this morning… Probably should avoid coffee too, whenever I read Marks’ posts… :-O But appreciate your note here, and you’re right… Kindest regards, Barry REPLY 1. pimaCanyon says: March 9, 2016 at 11:00 pm heh… I have the same problem with coffee. I don’t do it regularly and I’ve found that drinking coffee and perusing forums like this one don’t mix well for me. Best thing I can do after drinking coffee to to go on a long bicycle ride (2 or 3 hours) or an all day hike. I actually the like the physical boost it gives me when I’m planning something with extended physical activity. I say this with all sincerity, but I’m also finding it funny that you mentioned the coffee thing. Good trading to you!

REPLY 2. John Li says: March 9, 2016 at 5:27 pm I second that. I have learned a lot from Mark. For example, keeping with the site name “solarcycles.net”, he pointed out the the weak solar cycle 7 points to a 2/2016 market peak. This adds value as few of us look at data from 1830. Although my positions tend to mirror Barry’s, I would hate to lose other points of view in this forum, especially one with a different (much longer backwards and forward) timeframe.

REPLY 18. Barry says: March 9, 2016 at 6:07 pm I’m trying to keep my trap shut, because I just took my STFU pill, but….. I clearly missed where he said: “he pointed out the the weak solar cycle 7 points to a 2/2016 market peak.” Because his other statement sounds like the opposite…. ???? REPLY 1. John Li says: March 9, 2016 at 6:28 pm A year or two ago, he posted this: SC1 Late 16/Early 17 SC16 Sep-15 SC12 Jul-17 SC13 Nov-17 SC7 Feb-16 SC10 Jun-17 AVG Dec-16 which I thought was a good roadmap for those who believe that a weak solar cycle had a different dynamics that the recent solar cycles that was the more mainstream view. Clearly, shorting 10/2014 was a wrong move for the bears. I will leave it to Mark to clarify why he no longer believes December 2016 will be a peak, but to be fair, I don’t think he ever did say that it would be. Rather, he was providing the turndate data, and I interpreted it differently from him. REPLY 1. John Li says: March 9, 2016 at 6:29 pm “AVG Dec-16” — that line was mine, and not Mark. Please disregard that. REPLY 2. Barry says: March 9, 2016 at 6:52 pm John Li, thank you for the clarification, but this post alone helps me understand why I don’t believe anyone can use solar cycles to “accurately” predict markets, and it’s a fools errand to try… I allow that many people are smarter than myself, and maybe some can make heads or tails of that, but if I’m reading this correctly, you can pretty much read whatever you want to read into it… Not that there aren’t many OTHER forms of analysis that do the same thing, but this is just a perfect example of solar cycles…. “I interpreted it differently from him” tells me all I need to know… Sorry, but that’s how I see it… GL, man… REPLY 1. John Li says: March 9, 2016 at 7:12 pm Very frustrating for sure. I thought the solar maximum was in 2012 inline with 100% of the global warming scientists who can never be wrong. Four years later is a very long wait for this crash… 2. John Li says: March 9, 2016 at 7:20 pm “I interpreted it differently from him” — 1) JH’s view is that we have two stock crashes and then one commodity crash. Eg. 1980 Gold crash, 1990 Nikkei Crash, 2000 Dot Com crash. https://solarcycles.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/trading-the-sun.pdf Therefore, re. 2014, JH’s view from 2012 was this crash is in commodities — and we did see it in Gold and Oil. The question then is why JH thinks stocks will also crash this time around, unlike 1980. In this sense, Mark’s view might be close to JH’s original thesis in 2012, but I can’t say if Mark’s conclusion is based on this 1-2 pattern. 2) JH added demographics and valuation to explain why stocks will also crash in 2014, which is the date on the PDF. I am inclined to agree with him here.

19. purvez says: March 9, 2016 at 6:53 pm Thanks Barry for your forebearance. Also thanks to John Li for pointing out what Mark has and more importantly CAN contribute to this site in the future. Even his previous post that started with the ‘disservice’ comment had a quite a few good points that were very relevant to what John H is trying to promote on this site.

Mark we very much welcome your contribution. You have NOTHING to prove to any of us but your contribution can and DOES enrich our knowledge and I would like to thank you for that. ‘People’ I try and contribute with my 2 brain cells but it’s the more ‘informed and educated’ comments from everyone else here that makes this site unique. THANKS A MILLION for that.

REPLY 20. Barry says: March 9, 2016 at 7:23 pm Now, onto the actual markets… As many of you know, I am a big proponent of watching the HY market to help guide me in the general US stock market…. Obviously, we’ve been on a tear higher since the Feb 11th low there, but I am starting to see cracks here… Call it “loading the gun”, and the actual turn will “pull the trigger…. As well there was this comment late last week: “Barry says: March 3, 2016 at 3:23 pm Part of my trading system use HY prices for an indicator… Obviously, they’ve been on a tear higher lately… That said, sometimes the ROC gets ~too~ high, and that usually happens several times a year… Obviously, overbought, in this case, it flashed a warning signal to me two nights ago, and and even stronger (at a level that rarely happens) warning signal last night… That last signal – the second stronger signal – was at a level that is usually a turning point in the stock market… Doesn’t ~have~ to be, but….” Well, we’re ~still~ ~there~ on those readings…. Which tells me a turn down is going to trigger at any time… And if it does, it’s gonna be a good one…. I just saved a few charts that look like they are starting the “turn”, so if this works, here’s three charts to follow… REPLY 1. John Li says: March 9, 2016 at 9:07 pm HY is one canary in the coal mine. I think volumes are another. Low volumes mean a boring market, which is “never a short”. REPLY 1. John Li says: March 9, 2016 at 9:09 pm Specifically, SPY volume was only 80mn shares today — and I am looking for days for >160mn shares to return. I am sure that will make me fashionably late to the party, but at least I cling on to my +0.80% MTD gains for now. REPLY 2. pimaCanyon says: March 9, 2016 at 11:05 pm There’s the old saying “never short a dull market”. Hubert Senters claims he’s looked at past data and low volume generally means that whatever trend is in place will continue. So if you’re in an uptrend on low volume, it’s likely that that uptrend will continue.

REPLY 21. Barry says: March 9, 2016 at 7:24 pm http://postimg.org/image/cuc51tznt/

REPLY 22. Barry says: March 9, 2016 at 7:25 pm http://postimg.org/image/os80j0yrv/

REPLY 23. Barry says: March 9, 2016 at 7:26 pm http://postimg.org/image/4cvrscx1x/

REPLY 24. purvez says: March 9, 2016 at 7:47 pm Barry, many thanks for those charts. I’ll look at them tomorrow morning. Right now the ‘wine’ is taking over! LOL.

REPLY 25. Bill says: March 10, 2016 at 2:55 am Valley, Did you go short or are you waiting for a POP. REPLY 1. Valley says: March 10, 2016 at 5:20 pm PALS is mixed, day trading options, small size, reluctant to short below 2000.

REPLY 26. Jegersmart says: March 10, 2016 at 6:44 am It’s almost always amusing to see those times when someone posts a link to personal financial information in a bid to prove something. Having said that, the only thing I will add to this particular discussion is that it seems to me that apart from the sh1t slinging surely this is a classic example of different participants having different time scales and goals? A buy and hold investor will never have much in common with traders? I just think that we should be able to co-exist without the “disservice” comments and other time-wasting rubbish? If there really are posts that are offensive to you, just don’t read them? Good luck all. J REPLY 1. Gary says: March 10, 2016 at 1:49 pm If there is a way to segregate ST trading comments from longer-term swing trades, I’m all for it.

REPLY 27. Specie says: March 10, 2016 at 12:54 pm Solar related Puetz crash window. Solar Eclipse 3/8 Lunar Eclipse 3/23 Crash window 6 days prior to til 3 days after a lunar eclipse that happens within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse. Crash window is thus 3/17-3/25. i am positioned accordingly. How about you? REPLY 1. pimaCanyon says: March 10, 2016 at 2:18 pm Remember that crash windows are common, they happen once or twice a year, whereas crashes are very rare, happening what, once every few years? The point is that most crash windows go by without the market undergoing a crash. Good luck. REPLY 2. John Li says: March 10, 2016 at 8:30 pm What is a crash window? Is it the start of a crash move? i.e. we can go down say a mild -3%, and then -10% in 4/2016. Or does it go down -10% between 3/17 to 3/25. The answer gives different meaning to “positioned accordingly” REPLY 1. Specie says: March 11, 2016 at 2:19 pm hi john i’m 60% junior miners 40% leveraged short index etfs at least through 3/25

REPLY 28. Krish says: March 10, 2016 at 2:37 pm I wonder if that was the peak and now stocks will head down fast and hard into end of March. I’m short DAX with a small stake.

REPLY 29. purvez says: March 10, 2016 at 3:07 pm Here’s that wedge on the DJIA that I had shown earlier. It now has 5 separate touch points on the upper line and 3 on the lower, so they are very valid trend lines. I’m hoping today’s pop will take it marginally above the top line coz that would be an amazing shorting opportunity. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 10, 2016 at 3:10 pm Oops it wasn’t there…it’s here: http://postimg.org/image/kuan5ibep/ Sorry, Working from someone else’s computer. I accidentally spilled some drink all over mine and now it’s refusing to wake up,. Must be a ‘diva laptop’!!

REPLY 30. purvez says: March 10, 2016 at 3:44 pm The DJIA just broke below the lower line of the wedge…..and it’s having difficulty even coming from underneath to ‘kiss it goodbye’. It LOOKS like we’ve got our top but it certainly doesn’t FEEL like it. My money is on this being a fake out move, At least until we drop another 50 points on the DJIA.

REPLY 31. eclectic says: March 10, 2016 at 3:45 pm Gold About To Soar? This is a rather contrarian prediction but I think gold is now going to soar, leaving the doubters behind in the dust. I base this on a technical pattern knows as the “3-point convergence”. As a retired trader, I know how dangerous it is to predict instead of react. Just saying. 1240 must hold as that is the break point at today’s low. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: March 10, 2016 at 9:09 pm The ending diagonal of $gold has been complemented by an ending diagonal for $USindex. The bear market for equities was proclaimed by ending diagonals. Its is all playing out just as JH as shown with overwhelming reasoning. Any dip in $gold can only be transitory now.

REPLY 32. Pulp says: March 10, 2016 at 5:19 pm Dax – seems to have “fast tracked” up and then “fast tracked” down, and is just below that important support line from 20th August. http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/jN8Jn

REPLY 33. GM says: March 10, 2016 at 10:50 pm Been at a sporting event (spectating at the All England badminton) but placed 2/3 position short ftse via 3x etf at Ecb bounce earlier today. Will add final 3rd on bounce tomorrow or early next week, plan to hold until 5300ish on ftse. 1800 test on ES lies ahead in my opinion. Gold top in the next 2 weeks, c. 1339. Then everything changes for a while. Bulls take a while to die, but selling the rips should drive equities lower over time. Good luck all. REPLY 1. GM says: March 11, 2016 at 1:58 pm My healthy profit at yesterday’s ftse close mostly evaporated overnight, so took the profit this morning. Will layer on shorts today or into Fomc next week. One last short squeeze possible, to ES 2030?

REPLY 34. Chien-Jen says: March 11, 2016 at 2:50 am

REPLY 35. Chien-Jen says: March 11, 2016 at 2:51 am REPLY 1. Gary says: March 12, 2016 at 12:20 pm Chien-Jen, if I’m reading the OAS signal correctly (bottom pink line), it seems there’s been very little upside movement even though the stock market has made a rather strong reversal. Is that your interpretation as well? REPLY 1. Chien-Jen says: March 13, 2016 at 5:00 am

REPLY 36. Pulp says: March 11, 2016 at 10:23 am Is it just me or is trading difficult? REPLY 1. purvez says: March 11, 2016 at 12:31 pm Its VERY DIFFICULT…..BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE is my experience. How long have you been trying to trade Pulp? REPLY 1. Pulp says: March 11, 2016 at 1:04 pm Ive been a traded shares for 20 years and moved into forex trading over the last 3 years . I was quite shook up by the drop in the bank share value in 2008 which has made me look at other investment methods. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 11, 2016 at 1:46 pm Sounds like you are more a medium term investor rather than a trader. Trading usually has a maximum horizon of 3 months to be ‘in’ a trade. Hugely different mind sets as well as techniques / knowledge required imo. Despite being from an accounting background I only got into the Stock Market about 10 years ago….just around 2007 Lol. My ‘baptism’ was more like napalm than ‘just a fire’. Lost a ton and have taken a looooong time to get it all back and a bit more. Now I take it one day at a time.

37. Barry says: March 11, 2016 at 3:27 pm ~Finally~ hit 2010, so layered into my next sell point this AM, and at this point am ready for a decline to start… Obviously, the market cares not one whit what I want, but just saying I’m plenty short at this point, and ready for a “Risk Off” moment in stocks, oil, and gold… John H., is there any way an “Ignore” button could be integrated here? I hate to keep annoying the people that I seem to annoy, so they could have an easy way to just ignore me… I mean, easier for them than just ignoring me… Thanks!

REPLY 38. Peter_ says: March 11, 2016 at 3:42 pm $US weakening cannot be prevented by the organising of forced selling of gold. Its just another waste of prospects for yet another future generation. The only solution remaining to parabolic debt and its foreverlasting effects is nuclear war. Just press the button – all problems will be promptly & permanently fixed. Not funny now so you just got to laugh whilst you build a shelter fwiw. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 11, 2016 at 4:36 pm Peter_ you are early with your End of Week ‘chuckle’…..but it’s still good. Thx.

REPLY 39. purvez says: March 11, 2016 at 3:53 pm Yesterday’s fake down, break down was quite convincing. I’m sure it managed to ‘stop’ both bulls and bears out. Today’s pop higher should reverse back towards 17000 on the DJIA before we get a final pop higher. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: March 11, 2016 at 7:13 pm The weasels are now a protected species. I am glad you did not mention them alongside any final pop. Meanwhile we have bankrupt traders multiplying and dropping from their afflictions like rabid vermin. So I suppose a pop up can happen for a moment or two during the wake for them as a sort of goodbye sideshow. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 11, 2016 at 7:46 pm Peter_ I LURVE the ‘imagery’.



Thx

REPLY 2. purvez says: March 11, 2016 at 7:53 pm I just read up on weasel protection status in the UK…..and they are NOT protected. Apparently they are ONE of the MOST resilient rodents around. Colonies do die out in ‘bad years’ but they are soon taken over by healthy ones. Sounds a bit like Banksters. LOL. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: March 11, 2016 at 9:21 pm Its one small step for a bankster, but its a giant leap for a weasel.

40. John Li says: March 11, 2016 at 7:47 pm We need Nicolas to come back from vacation…pleeaase? REPLY 1. purvez says: March 11, 2016 at 7:55 pm Huh!!??? You want higher highs, John Li? Or is he your ‘contrarian’ indicator? REPLY 1. John Li says: March 11, 2016 at 8:41 pm He is my indicator…but I agree with your view. Historically peaks come late in March or early April.

REPLY 41. eclectic says: March 11, 2016 at 9:49 pm Egg on my face. Well, I guess that’s why I don’t trade any more. And good riddance to that past life! I’m sure a ton of shorts were added today. Unbelievable: to me at least.

REPLY 42. Valley says: March 11, 2016 at 10:21 pm PALS next week SPX: Phase: – all week Distance: neutral Declination: + all week Seasonals: + + all week Planet angles: – 10 Mo cycle: – Summary: Mixed week PALS, price is at 200 d ma so not oversold or overbought technically. Will day trade this week with small size.

REPLY 43. stormchaser80 says: March 12, 2016 at 2:57 am Big changes coming, see how we did this week! https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/ REPLY 1. Valley says: March 12, 2016 at 3:26 am Hi Storm, enjoy reading your site, good call on Thursday’s post for rally Friday. You were correct about size of rally. REPLY 1. stormchaser80 says: March 14, 2016 at 1:57 am Thanks Valley!

REPLY 44. Jegersmart says: March 12, 2016 at 6:08 am I added to QQQ short positions and opened initial IWM shorts. Good luck next week. J

REPLY 45. carpediem01site says: March 12, 2016 at 10:54 am This market still looks very resistant I think it still has more legs up till March 23. The bradley made a turn on March 10 and the next is March 25.. we will see what is in the cards.. REPLY 1. Valley says: March 12, 2016 at 8:38 pm Agree, Carpe. March 23 may be short term high. Target of 2100 by March 23, if target is reached will move to cash. REPLY 1. carpediem01site says: March 13, 2016 at 3:56 pm Maybe not seen this link but I think it is interesting: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/tom-mcclellan/oscillator-bullish-signal#.VuSSYQgeBT0.twitter

REPLY 46. Chien-Jen says: March 13, 2016 at 6:05 am

REPLY 47. Chien-Jen says: March 13, 2016 at 6:15 am REPLY 1. Gary says: March 15, 2016 at 1:23 am Chien-Jen, Can’t get too bearish until unemployment claims move higher…

REPLY 48. eclectic says: March 13, 2016 at 8:55 pm EW Question: Can a three wave correction end in a triangle, as the third wave? I’m asking about the gold correction in the Nov-Dec time period, 2015. Some analysts have labeled it as such showing the current upmove began on Dec 30th. I can’t recall ever reading about this in the older, traditional literature, so maybe it’s a neowave concept? Valid or not? Thank you. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 14, 2016 at 10:08 am eclectic, as far as my knowledge goes, nothing can ‘end’ in a triangle. It is the penultimate wave in both impulse and corrective waves. i.e. occurs in position 4 or B.

REPLY 49. stormchaser80 says: March 14, 2016 at 1:57 am updated post https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/

REPLY 50. GM says: March 14, 2016 at 1:34 pm I see Peggy has moved the goalposts again on Twitter. Was calling for mid 1800s (ES) at the start of March, now calling for mid 1900s imminently. However, to be fair, the prediction that the real downside won’t start until early April chimes with valley’s seasonal expectations, which are proving to be prescient, good job valley. I’m sat on my hands til tomorrow, may short any FOMC spike, and looking at the Nov/Dec 2015 patterns repeating which could see a few weeks of chop/volatility starting now.

REPLY 51. scott says: March 14, 2016 at 2:17 pm March 23, Lunar eclipse would be 7 weeks since low of feb 11. 7 months since flash crash low of 8/24 and just over 7 years since 3/9/2009 low. having fun w/ 7s with the ides of march aligning with the puetz crash window.

REPLY 52. Krish says: March 14, 2016 at 3:19 pm Another fabulous day for the bulls. I am now short all indices. This is a make or break situation for the bears in the short term.

REPLY 53. eclectic says: March 14, 2016 at 4:14 pm Tks purvez. I thought the same.

REPLY 54. Jegersmart says: March 14, 2016 at 4:22 pm Seems to me that the only ones buying equities are the buyback merchants….let’s see how long they can keep this up….:) J

REPLY 55. GM says: March 14, 2016 at 4:37 pm Moe reckons a big triangle forming, could take a few months to resolve. http://trader-moe.com/big-right-shoulder-triangle-likely-forming-on-es-daily/ Dip to 1930s, back up to 2040-50s, down to 1800, that’s a plan for next few weeks. ES. Good to see gold dipping in the short-term.

REPLY 56. Jegersmart says: March 14, 2016 at 6:04 pm GM: “Good to see gold dipping in the short-term.” This.

J REPLY 1. GM says: March 14, 2016 at 6:53 pm Quite some squeeze these past few weeks jeger, but it had to end at some point. Do you have any downside targets in the short/medium term? Anyone else have a short-term/medium-term view on gold they might like to share? Some see one final washout low, I’m not so sure, but I do see sub $1100 at some point again. For anyone interested, I’m about to sell my home, and move into a rental home for a good few years, maybe permanently for the years I remain in the UK. The sale proceeds will be invested carefully and moved swiftly overseas into a Swiss vault. No prizes for guessing the asset into which funds will be flowing…. The old times are ending, the time to make final preparations is running short, and being nimble in the years ahead is key. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 14, 2016 at 8:04 pm GM: “Anyone else have a short-term/medium-term view on gold they might like to share?” I’m no gold follower but from an EW perspective this bounce has run it’s course. However it is just wave ‘(A)’ within an (A)(B)(C) correction. It ‘may’ go a tad higher (mid 1300s) but then a reversal towards your sub 1100 before heading up higher. Those are decent ‘moves’ to trade though. REPLY 2. Pulp says: March 15, 2016 at 7:22 am My wife would probably send me to the mental institution (no office to those inside) if I suggested selling the house and converting it into gold. @GM do you do persuasive block bookings.

REPLY 57. jegersmart says: March 14, 2016 at 7:38 pm Hey GM on GLD around 114, on GDX around 17.25-17.5 or so – all v imho ofc:) I sold my last property around 9 years ago, haven’t decided where I will go next! J

REPLY 58. purvez says: March 14, 2016 at 8:28 pm House vs Home: We are now in our 3rd property. Each property gave us approximately a 300% profit. We started with a house worth just under 30K. (Hope your multiplication abilities have survived your school education). I’m trying to get my better half to understand that the incredible ‘run’ we’ve had cannot continue. Unfortunately the 3rd one is the one she turned from a ‘house’ into a ‘home’. Now I can’t get her to think of it as a ‘house’ any more. Aaah well it’s a good thing that we’ll have paid it off in a few months. Also, it’s a good thing, I’m getting quite fond of the view over the landscaped garden that she’s created. For most in the UK, with property, our wealth is tied up in our property. I can see my net worth deteriorating by about two thirds in the next few years but I’m hoping the re-bound will be substantial. Although there is the possibility that ‘other’ assets may take over where property used to be. Me, with my ‘hard hat on’ I’d sell and stay where I am but rent the place. That way I get my ‘view’ AND let someone else take the ‘equity risk’. Anyone here got any ‘advice’ on how to handle ‘better halves’ in this situation please? REPLY 1. GM says: March 14, 2016 at 9:18 pm I don’t think you’ll see anything like 2/3 off property prices purvez, even in London. Maybe a 30% dip, but then prices will creep back up, as a (poor) inflation hedge. Tricky with regard to your better half, but stick it all in gold, wait a few years, then you can have 2 houses, one in London, one in the sun, and a decent stash still in the vault. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 14, 2016 at 9:41 pm OK GM, you’ve got the ‘job’ of convincing her. Your fee…20% of whatever it is that I ‘save’ if you can get her to sell!!

I do however think you are wrong on the property prices dip. The 2007-2009 dip showed how quickly things can turn ugly. I know they didn’t ‘stay ugly’ for long but they did get ugly!! REPLY 1. purvez says: March 14, 2016 at 9:45 pm I know a bloke who bought 2 properties in Central London…just off Marylebone Road. They were comprised of 4 flats each. He paid £8K for each property. Each of those is worth upwards of £2M now…..and yet at the time he said no one wanted to touch those. Now THAT is investing when ‘blood is running in the streets’ or whatever that bloke said.

59. Jegersmart says: March 15, 2016 at 3:51 pm Pretty good if he bought them in 2003, not so good if he bought them in 1734! haha J REPLY 1. purvez says: March 15, 2016 at 9:20 pm J, he bought them in early 2008. We used to laugh about him selling when they got to £100K but to his credit he didn’t waver. I’ve lost touch with him now but I’m fairly certain he has got ‘rid’ of them by now….at least I hope he has. Sometimes ‘your BEST trade’ you want to hang on to.

REPLY 60. scott says: March 15, 2016 at 5:29 pm since the site has lost quite a bit substance recently, thought i would add northman trader’s update from monday in case there is anyone who hasn’t seen it. http://northmantrader.com/2016/03/12/nifty-fifty/

REPLY 61. eclectic says: March 16, 2016 at 12:02 pm Someone asked about an EW gold count. I don’t agree with the author’s long term count; but I think his intermediate view is valid. http://imageshack.com/i/pmhrCuNwj REPLY 1. GM says: March 16, 2016 at 12:39 pm Thanks eclectic. So, where do you think that ‘5’ gets down to in late 2016, and what comes after that please? Separately, was it you that mentioned 17 miners being taken over in the last bull? Any chance you’d fancy sharing some names in your current portfolio please? I can share one or two names I have been watching too…..Claude, and Richmont mines. Re houses for gold, it’s a tough call for most, who view their homes as somewhere they live, rather than an investment. If that’s the case, fine I suppose. Most have no idea that a repeat of the 70s lies ahead (on steroids), and how their lives will never be the same again. Staying in the UK is likely to be a terrible option, but likewise Japan, and eventually America…..totalitarianism and war are headed our way, plus a permanent bursting of the bubble and resultant depression in large parts of the world. We’re FUBAR. http://chinamatters.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/a-revolution-in-strategy-us-shifts-to.html

REPLY 62. Pulp says: March 16, 2016 at 1:07 pm Dax – Increased probability of hitting 9800 or 9600 based on the pitchforks: hihttp://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/cWqJn REPLY 1. Pulp says: March 16, 2016 at 2:01 pm Alternatively : Jerry’s Dragon setup?? http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/NzqJn REPLY 2. Pulp says: March 16, 2016 at 2:19 pm Or is this a Jerry’s Dragon set-up? http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/NzqJn REPLY 3. Pulp says: March 17, 2016 at 9:44 am Update on the DAX pitchfork: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/CNsJn

REPLY 63. Jegersmart says: March 16, 2016 at 1:13 pm Thanks all. GM, the article you reference does echo my own thoughts but also reminds me of the countless times over the past half a dozen or more decades where “justification”, imagined or otherwise has paved the way for criminal activity by governments. On a similar but tangential note, my thinking for the last 20 years or so has been that the world’s population consists of approximately 90% retards. Sounds arrogant right? I don’t mean it like that, I don’t think I am better than anyone which leads me to my next point – and I think I should have changed the word “retard” to “zombie” – I was young when I started this…:) When I watch the current presidential debates and electoral process in the US for example (it is on most channels often) – my attention is not drawn to the politicians, but rather the crowd. I believe we are all equals until proven otherwise, and I find myself not at all understanding ANY of the people at these rallies/debates. The politician in question says something meaningless, and these people scream, applaud, get on their feet – but the most scary thing is the look in their eyes. They look at the human up on the podium making some noise with their mouth and are enthralled, and are certainly NOT thinking……which is what reminds me of zombies. People are sleepwalking their way into continuation of the current systems, wars, and lies. And they pray before them as if to a deity – when in reality the dumpy lady, the follicly bird-nested “tycoon” are just human beings, with more shortcomings than most. Politicians have proved time and time and time again that they do not possess the know-how to solve problems. All they do is overspend, pander to their supporters and the majority loves it. Then they protest against austerity. Maybe “zombie” is not the right word after all……but I am sure in excess of 90% of people I have come across are one of these…… For what its worth, I think you are doing the right thing GM. The 90% are on auto-pilot to grow up not thinking, reproduce, slave away to pay off debts before they die. They do not question, they just accept. They accept that it is right for us to kill ISIS but it is not right for them to kill non-ISIS people. They accept that they have to buy a home for 5 times their gross annual earnings that they spend 25 years paying off, they accept that one can only have £1M in a pension, they accept bank bailouts, bank bail-ins, privatisation of industries that affect them negatively but benefit only corporations and their share holders, they accept the horrendous waste of resources used in wars, conflicts, weapons of mass destruction, ships that can destroy the world from their home harbour, they accept the corrupted democratic process which has been failing the taxpayer for decades, they go to election debates and go postal with rapture when a politician tells another lie. To quote Clive Owen in one of the Bourne trilogy films, and in reference to our current institutions/system: “Do you get the headaches? Look at what they make you give…..” J REPLY 1. purvez says: March 16, 2016 at 4:00 pm J. What caused this soap box oratory? Delightful as it was. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: March 16, 2016 at 4:27 pm Not sure P, I hope it didn’t offend up to 10% of the people here J REPLY 1. GM says: March 16, 2016 at 7:32 pm Jeger, you’ve summarised the perpetual issue humanity must deal with. We are not all equal, and those with certain *prowess* will rise to power and milk everyone else, in some guise or other, until it all collapses, and the cycle repeats over and over and over. I feel blessed to have realised the game at hand, and able to prepare as best I can for the latest troubled cycle, which promises to be a humdinger, marxism enjoys spilling blood and creating havoc whilst destroying society. Where to hide? That article re China rules out most of the East of the world, maybe South America somewhere? Not really ideal.

64. Krish says: March 16, 2016 at 2:18 pm Oil flying again. Got greedy and waited for a bigger drop. Brent should now rise towards $44 adding more tailwind for stocks.

REPLY 65. Jegersmart says: March 16, 2016 at 4:33 pm Must be someone needing to offload some more of those 170k contracts of USO they picked up last week or week before. I must stress that really, I am not at all bullish on oil. Remember that even if production instantly fell to 1 million bpd consumption bias today, it would take 9 months just to burn off most of the stocks we already have that we can see….I would be very careful with longs for the time being…… imho J p.s. I am neither long or short oil / spreads/ options in any fashion currently.

REPLY 66. eclectic says: March 16, 2016 at 4:50 pm Good eye GM. FWIW, I NEVER believed there were 5 waves down from August 2011. If you look at daily chars from that time period (LMBA prices and fixes) the initial move down was comprised of only 3 waves: not 5 as this author suggests. Author suggests 1190 for completion of wave b, then possibly 1350 for completion of wave c. It is from there that we part company. I view the entire move down from August, 2011 – December 2015 as a series of three (3) waves. Check out Daneric for that count, although he too is labeling the 2011-2015 as a five. Probably academic or maybe not. I certainly don’t know. REPLY 1. GM says: March 16, 2016 at 7:26 pm LOL, actually I confess to not having that good an eye as regards the gold chart, as EW counts confuse me greatly anyway. I was just curious as to your view of where that ‘5’ reaches, and what comes next? Thanks.

REPLY 67. eclectic says: March 16, 2016 at 4:58 pm Can’t post Daneric’s Mar 9 update.

REPLY 68. eclectic says: March 16, 2016 at 5:09 pm http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/next-mining-crash-76612?ccode=03152016MAM3465MAM&em=rcsilverngold@gmail.com&sc=&ec=

REPLY 69. Krish says: March 16, 2016 at 6:32 pm another success story for the FED. Stocks go up!!

REPLY 70. GM says: March 16, 2016 at 7:37 pm I shorted the FTSE again at around 3.15pm, futures were around 6100 at the time. A 1/4 position, and this time I will hold on, and add more tomorrow, as I am now positioning for the end of the bear market rally. Ftse looks lacklustre, and will be dragged down by oil’s drop back to new lows IMO. I’m hoping for higher prices, by a smidge, in the next 2 days to get the rest of my positions loaded.

REPLY 71. GM says: March 16, 2016 at 7:59 pm Allan and I have had a few (amicable) disagreements about the USD, I think up, Allan thinks down (over the medium term). Longer term we agree it’s doomed. But an interesting view that I read at the weekend could see both Alland and I proven wrong over the next year: http://rambus1.com/2016/03/09/wednesday-report-112/ Certainly possible. REPLY 1. Valley says: March 17, 2016 at 1:07 am Hi GM, I think dollar will decline over next four years, commodities will rise, along with equities lead by commodity producing nations. If I had capital I would invest in these areas buy and hold. Don’t so will focus on PALS system and the SPX as I enjoy it. REPLY 1. GM says: March 17, 2016 at 1:22 pm Valley, why do you think the dollar will decline (I assume you mean against other currencies)? Equities could rise in the next 4 years, but not after a significant bear market first, at least 40% down from the peak IMO. (I changed my mind, and took small profits on my Ftse shorts, the fib at just under 6,080 is providing support at the moment, so perhaps now a bounce back to high 6100s… please). REPLY 1. Valley says: March 17, 2016 at 6:53 pm Thanks for that GM. Appreciate your opinion.

72. Chien-Jen says: March 17, 2016 at 1:02 pm

REPLY 73. Chien-Jen says: March 17, 2016 at 1:03 pm

REPLY 74. Chien-Jen says: March 17, 2016 at 1:03 pm

REPLY 75. Chien-Jen says: March 17, 2016 at 1:48 pm

REPLY 76. Krish says: March 17, 2016 at 4:08 pm US markets recovered all losses this year. Excellent work by Janet Yellen and Co. Poor work by me expecting January to be the market top for the year!! REPLY 1. John Li says: March 17, 2016 at 4:52 pm Are you continuing to short as we “cannot possibly” make new ATH?

REPLY 77. Peter_ says: March 17, 2016 at 4:19 pm SPX now in the new year gap and closing by 2044, beyond which we transit from neverland to neverneverland where nothing is real and I am the Walrus.

REPLY 78. pimaCanyon says: March 17, 2016 at 4:53 pm Maybe climate change is preventing the markets from ever going down again… https://weather.com/news/climate/news/record-warmest-february-global-2016 REPLY 1. purvez says: March 17, 2016 at 6:23 pm Aaah yes, hot air always rises until it meets cold air. Me thinks the ‘meeting’ is close to hand. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 17, 2016 at 6:41 pm Also my ‘personal canary in the coal mine’ (aka the FTSE) is saying that it doesn’t want to participate in this mad cap rally. Despite the DJIA’s enormous 900 point surge the FTSE has essentially traded sideways since early March. More importantly it seems to have participated in the dips but not the ‘up side’. ….just saying.

REPLY 79. Jegersmart says: March 17, 2016 at 5:18 pm Pima That makes most sense out of anything I have seen over the past few days lol. Feeling squeezed here…….:D J REPLY 1. John Li says: March 17, 2016 at 6:34 pm Congrats on your long call to 200SMA on SPX and to 2000-2050. I didn’t think it was possible, but now that we are here, I am looking even further up my screen.

REPLY 80. Peter_ says: March 17, 2016 at 7:01 pm The largest market on the planet is the illegal drugs market. And today I saw the effects of it. Or was it all a dream? REPLY 1. purvez says: March 17, 2016 at 8:27 pm Peter_ you get better and better!! We are near the ‘end’ rather than the ‘beginning’. So have heart. Just don’t go anywhere near the illegal stuff. You’ll be ‘just fine’.

REPLY 81. Red Dog says: March 17, 2016 at 10:35 pm Alphahorn seems to have called this market right. Well done. Where to from here. REPLY 1. Gary says: March 17, 2016 at 11:32 pm Exactly what I was thinking, Red Dog… REPLY 2. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 9:03 am Without wishing to usurp Alphahorn, ‘where to from here’ is either a triangle with D completing about now which means an E lower before we go higher by several thousand DJIA points to complete the 5th wave. Alternately the Feb low was the end of an ABC flat correction and we’ve already started the 5th wave higher. My personal preference is for a triangle but the triangle count doesn’t fit too well with the S&P as C (Feb’16 low) was lower than A (Aug’15 low) which is not a valid count. In any case some sort of minor correction which stays above the Feb low before we blast higher. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 9:10 am I should have ‘qualified’ my earlier reply by saying that : ‘If Alphahorn’s call is correct that we are in a 4th wave then….’. The alternative school of thought is that we completed a ‘C’ wave of a huge Expanded Flat back in May and we are in nested 1,2s downwards. In that scenario we’ll soon get a 3rd of a 3rd Down which will prove quite devastating. I personally am in the Alphahorn camp simply because all of the waves since last May’s high are 3 wavers and for this to be going down the ‘down’ ones needed to be 5 wavers. Hope that bit of EW babble helps.

REPLY 82. Valley says: March 18, 2016 at 12:40 am Plan on buying with size Friday SPY mid day at lows (if they appear), and selling on Monday at close. After Monday next week, will be cautiously bearish. REPLY 1. carpediem01site says: March 18, 2016 at 7:54 am I agree Valley I think the period March 22 till 31the market is ripe for a correction. REPLY 2. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 2:17 pm Nice call for today Valley. REPLY 3. carpediem01site says: March 18, 2016 at 4:15 pm What is your view Valley for next week you write cautiously bearish? Thanks REPLY 1. Valley says: March 18, 2016 at 6:56 pm Two reliable negatives are 10 month cycle which bottoms on 4/7, and post Jupiter opposition which should suppress price until about the same time. Full moon is Tuesday and I believe it is an eclipse Full moon. Next week is apogee as well. After full moon and during apogee price tends to fall. Seasonals are often down entire week post opex (next week) in March, although March into early April is bullish overall. On the positive side: Monday is Jupiter moon conjunction which is very bullish but fades day after. Next week is declination North to Equator which sometimes has gaps mostly to the upside. Price is extended, but it would be surprising if it just kept on to 2150 quickly which would annoy shorts or cash holders. So, cautiously bearish after Monday, just can’t be fully bearish given seasonals. REPLY 1. carpediem01site says: March 19, 2016 at 10:20 am Thanks Valley for sharing your thoughts again. If we turn down it should be between March 22 and March 31 that is what I think right now.. I f we turn monday an Tuesday with a sharp drop then we will go up March 23/24 till end off the month. Have a nice weekend

83. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 12:24 pm Afternoon all. Unlike Valley, I have sold with size this morning. All of my ISA (c. £345m ; ) is now in a 3x short Ftse etf. I now have a non-ISA trading vehicle, and will short a US index later today, same leverage. A short sharp decline ahead, but no crash yet, I think 2100 ES lies ahead first int early April. REPLY 1. Krish says: March 18, 2016 at 1:08 pm how do you have £345m in an ISA? REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 2:14 pm I have this cool program, allows me to show any ISA balance I choose on my screen. It’s not real however. In my head it is. LOL, I would never reveal my finances online, only someone with serious psychological issues would do that IMO. REPLY 1. barrybrewer says: March 18, 2016 at 3:24 pm hahahahaha… I can’t stop chuckling… 2. John Li says: March 18, 2016 at 3:39 pm Donald Trump? 2. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 2:19 pm GM, you and Valley are not that far apart. I suspect you’ll have a ‘smallish’ draw down on your ISA. (send me the ‘spare change’ please prices.

) and then you both are looking for lower

REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 2:38 pm http://screencast.com/t/DVcfxAQxM 5 waves up, and the last fib? I shall short the Nasdaq later. REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 3:31 pm Nasdaq spiked to just above Fib level I was watching, so bought QID, ultra-short QQQ, whatever that means? Good luck me.

84. Jegersmart says: March 18, 2016 at 1:22 pm Hey GM That would be enough to move the price significantly GM – good luck!! haha J

REPLY 85. Krish says: March 18, 2016 at 1:56 pm I think we may head straight to 2100 before a drop with the current strength in US markets. I’m looking for the S&P to finish the year near 2100 after a 15-20% dip later this year. Central banks still have huge levels of market control and it will take a while for this to diminish. Northman Trader’s nice topping arc is starting to break with this recent rally.

REPLY 86. Barry says: March 18, 2016 at 3:28 pm Interesting chart, BTW… Just something to be aware of, and easy to change the parameters if you’d like… http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12356165706

REPLY 87. alphahorn says: March 18, 2016 at 3:29 pm Nothing has changed since my last post several weeks ago. I continue to favor slight new all time highs. As I’ve noted previously, I viewed the fall to 1810 SPX as John’s “shakeout” phase and judging by the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment on the Internet, it surely did its part. The bear’s last stand lies ahead at the trend line off lower highs. We’ve seen a 242 point bounce off 1810 leaving it just 81 points shy of new highs; we’ve been long the entire way, as well as long precious metals and miners.https://alphahorn.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/spxdaily5.png?w=1280 My System is still solidly long for now. Here’s the bearish count: https://alphahorn.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/spx-daily-count15.png?w=1280 REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 3:47 pm You were calling for a big old triangle AH? I still reckon that’s a good bet, up and down for many months. Plus, it would keep purvez happy! REPLY 1. Alphahorn says: March 18, 2016 at 4:52 pm I dropped that at 1810 when it violated the rules for the SPX REPLY 2. alphahorn says: March 18, 2016 at 4:58 pm See above my Feb 16th post, 2 charts bullish and bearish counts, no triangle. REPLY 1. Gary says: March 18, 2016 at 10:25 pm Thanks, AH. You’ve been right as rain on this move up, despite all the static you got on this board when markets were in the low 1800s. They know who they are, lol.

88. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 3:38 pm Somewhere earlier in response to Red Dog I had suggested a wave count. Here it is in glorious technicolour!! http://postimg.org/image/5fosjf7ml/ Note that W,X,Y are just ‘larger’ versions of a,b,c. Also note the wedge forming with it’s obligatory ‘throw over’. You may need to expand the pic to see all the ‘gory (ious) detail though. The implications is that we get a ‘FAST’ retracement to the base of the wedge i.e. X. REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 4:01 pm I see a broken wedge on the Ftse today. I also see that not all currencies and central banks are the same: https://www.marketnews.com/content/ecb-coene-question-if-2-inflation-goal-still-realistic-press Must have been reading JH’s thoughts on demographics? One day the ECB will change to 0% inflation target (they already have IMO, just don’t have a need to announce it yet and upset apple carts). Good to see some honesty in Europe, as opposed to Yellen’s endless drivel. Poor woman. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 4:41 pm GM, I really wish I understood your stance regarding the ECB. You keep attributing a set of ‘powers’ to them that I fail to see….and yet I know that you’ve done your homework on this and I just need to get my head around it. I’m fairly certain that if you are correct it will have serious repercussions on my wealth. Perhaps one day the ‘penny’ will drop. (Note: I am handicapped by the number of brain cells and hence will need some more time) REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 5:28 pm You’d never hear a central banker in the UK, US, or Japan utter those words (re growth/population/inflation) because those central bankers are poodles of the government they serve (and their voters & other cronies). The ECB is its own master, with one mandate, given to it voluntarily by all countries that join: price stability. Nothing else matters, because (I believe) the ECB knows that monetarism is a big fat myth, and all that money can do is remain stable, or collapse in a heap, it can’t produce growth or employment (but it can destroy those when debased). That is all we need our money to do, remain stable over time. Barring revolutions, watch the ECB allow markets to bring socialism to its knees, back to affordable levels. Was that the top just now? Hope so.

89. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 4:19 pm Yesterday I mentioned that the FTSE was not joining in the ‘party’ with the DJIA and S&P. However it was still heading, albeit very slowly in the same direction. Today since about 11am BST the DJIA has gained about 70 points…..and the FTSE has LOST about 60!! Does the one index know something that the other one doesn’t? …….Just asking. REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 4:53 pm Wish I’d put my 2nd trade on the FTSE rather then QID, having just discovered that my broker (Hargreaves) adds 1.5% spread to the exchange rate to cover ‘extra costs of dealing in the US’. Rip off Britain, roll on. Bastards. REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 4:56 pm Their guy on the phone said ‘oh sir, but we did the deal at the interbank exchange rate for you, not the retail rate’. So, I agreed, and asked for the 1.5% back please. He was somewhat perplexed. Complaint lodged, for the hell of it. Grrr. REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 4:59 pm 1.5% of £4,564, 566, 655.45 adds up to a lot of money you know. Do the maths. On topic, oil has reversed hard today, has it peaked (for now)? $42 (Brent) was the bottom during the August slide, so potential for resistance here. 2. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 5:06 pm Now a days a magnifying glass is not enough to read the small print. You need a microscope or perhaps even an ‘electron microscope’ and even then some of it is ‘open to interpretation’!! You just have to look at petrol prices to know how much of a RIP OFF it really is. I remember the first time petrol went over a £ a litre was when oil was over $100 per barrel. Today none of them want to drop below a £/litre in case everyone gets ‘used to the idea’….despite oil being sub $50 for a looooong time. It comes from the populace being lulled into a ‘nanny state’ like most of the rest of the world. 2. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 5:25 pm Aaah so that trade wasn’t through your ISA then….that’s where you went wrong. With the ISA they have to stick with pre-agreed prices/costs. Still at that level I would have thought you would have got a ‘better deal’ indeed. LOL. REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 5:42 pm Apparently once your balance reaches £1,388, 663, 876, 344, 398.12 in the ISA, rules prevent you from going higher, hence I’m in a non-ISA as well. Crap eh. 2. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 5:52 pm Actually I was thinking the opposite. Your trade size was not big enough to allow Hargreaves to give you a decent discount. LOL. I do however agree with your sentiment on the ‘limitation’ rule for ISAs.

90. Jegersmart says: March 18, 2016 at 5:27 pm Well have a great weekend all, a very quiet week here – let’s see what next week brings….:D J

REPLY 91. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 5:49 pm On the DJIA, since the 17600 touch I can see a 5 waver down on the 5 minute chart. I intend to take a ‘swing’ type trade once it get’s back up towards 17585 with a stop over today’s high around 17605. My down side target is the X wave (around 16200) in the ‘picture’ I posted earlier. Although I’ll continue to do my ‘day trades’ I believe that this one could very well be a genuine ‘swing’ trade, worthy of the name. I’ll keep you posted on progress. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 6:33 pm Ok, I’m in the ‘swing’ trade at 17585. Stop at 17610…a bit further than I really feel I ought to but just allowing some wiggle room. By the way my ‘stop’ values are only ‘hit’ once a 5 minute bar has completed. i.e. if intra-5 mins it hits then I dont’ count that. However I also have an overriding rule that during the intra-5 mins if it goes over by more than 15 points then I’m out. Sounds confusing? Then you should see what my 2 poor brain cells are doing to try and keep up. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 18, 2016 at 7:14 pm Ahh well that was the ‘shortest swing trade’ in history? REPLY 1. GM says: March 18, 2016 at 8:34 pm Tough luck, I tend to allow 1-2% for my short swings. I’m no expert trader mind. Armstrong has next week as a panic week for the Dow. I see lots of views aligning that a correction is at hand.

92. stormchaser80 says: March 18, 2016 at 11:46 pm After the stomach flu, we are back upright! https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/

REPLY 93. John Li says: March 19, 2016 at 2:18 pm JH, hope you are feeling better. Not trying to rip on you, but as we approach April, do you have an updated view? I think the solar maximum in 1920 looks interesting — and it is also a 2nd term US presidential year, with a swing high in April.

REPLY 94. Morrie Nelson says: March 19, 2016 at 3:32 pm Glad you are doing better Stormchaser; thanks for the report update. Dollar bounced off of support yesterday and should continue higher next week which will bring the commodities back down and with it the market.

REPLY 95. GM says: March 20, 2016 at 12:57 pm Much to ponder in this post. Whilst one can’t argue with the data he presents, everything (bar sentiment) points toward complacency having returned among those doing the buying. http://fat-pitch.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/weekly-market-summary_19.html

REPLY 96. Pulp says: March 20, 2016 at 4:01 pm Here is another article: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article54421.html and this one is for Purvez to while away the time whilst trading: http://chatwithtraders.com/podcast/ REPLY 1. GM says: March 20, 2016 at 8:00 pm Buyback blackout seems a plausible reason for short-term weakness. From that article: ‘If so, then VIX is taking the lead in announcing the turn in the market. Confirmation may appear as the VIX rises above 1893.00 again.’ Imagine Vix at 1893. Time to buy.

REPLY 97. jegersmart says: March 20, 2016 at 6:21 pm Thanks for that GM and Pulp – I am going to assume we are in a downtrend until we are not if you see what I mean. Having said, that I do not have a lot of short exposure either – just sitting on some losses on GLD and GDX shorts and some of the Glencore still. I am most probably going to watch and wait – as the R/R is not on the long side right now imho. Good luck all ofc. J

REPLY 98. GM says: March 20, 2016 at 9:55 pm Solar activity looks to be on the slide: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

REPLY 99. stormchaser80 says: March 21, 2016 at 2:29 am Futures update is out! https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/

REPLY 00. purvez says: March 21, 2016 at 10:47 am GM, Pulp, many thanks for those excellent links. Best to remain nimble here. REPLY 1. GM says: March 21, 2016 at 12:42 pm Watching Ftse futures on Investing.com. It might be a bad data feed, but the index is jumping up and down by 10 points on a tick. Weird, and causes me to suspect a whiff of panic in the air. I am biased (short) of course!

REPLY 01. Krish says: March 21, 2016 at 3:38 pm Until the S&P gets below 1975 I feel its a buy the dip market and its working well so far. Every dip gets bought back heavily. Ultimately I am looking for the February lows to be broken in the next month or so to confirm the bear market. Any subsequent recovery above S&P 2000 for me would suggest we are in a flat market rather than a bear. REPLY 1. John Li says: March 21, 2016 at 3:55 pm Hussman says 1975 as well — what so special about that number?

REPLY 02. Krish says: March 21, 2016 at 4:19 pm Its just a number i’ve had in mind over the last few months. Can remember where it came from but i have been neutral/bullish when above it and bearish when below it. I’m looking for oil to drop to $30 again too in the next few months. I hope all the shale oil producers have hedged production for another year on this recent rally and are ready to start pumping the crap out of their already drilled wells. REPLY 1. John Li says: March 21, 2016 at 6:42 pm In case you are interested, this is his link http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160321.htm REPLY 1. Krish says: March 22, 2016 at 8:33 am Cheers John! I think we will break below 1975 but i reckon a drop to 2000 followed by a bounce to 2030 or so and then a break below 1975 is the likely scenario. I’ll be going with a small long around 2000.

REPLY 03. GM says: March 21, 2016 at 7:30 pm https://www.tradingview.com/x/7PZuzalq/ Two fibs just above for Ftse, one from May 15 top, the other from 2009-15. Close to the top.

REPLY 04. purvez says: March 22, 2016 at 9:28 am Here is an updated magnified view of the wedge: http://postimg.org/image/6tp8xpjf1/ that I had shown in this chart: http://postimg.org/image/5fosjf7ml/ At around 8:30am BST today the DJIA futures touched the top of the wedge and bounced off, as you would expect the first time around. We now have to wait for them to fall back a second time and hopefully break through. Once the top of the wedge is broken I suspect we’ll end up pretty swiftly towards the start of the wedge at around 16450. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 22, 2016 at 11:51 am Here’s another interesting bit about what the DJIA is doing. If you draw a line connecting the May high to the Nov high and extend it you’ll find that the DJIA (including after hours) touched that one too before reversing. Increasingly Alpha Horn’s triangle call is looking more relevant to me. To find out where ‘E’ of the triangle may end, connect a line from the August lows to the Feb lows and extend. Of course that is just TOOO PERFECT for a triangle….particularly one that I’m endorsing, so we’ll also have to keep a look out for the ‘wrinkle’.

REPLY 05. purvez says: March 22, 2016 at 3:23 pm Well looks like attempt 2 at around 13:50 BST today also failed to penetrate the top wedge line. The more attempts the better because that sort of ‘guarantees’ that it will break at some point. So be nimble at the trend line and you’ll do ok.

REPLY 06. Krish says: March 22, 2016 at 4:53 pm hope no-one got caught by the bear trap this morning. We have seen time and time again markets sell off in the aftermath of a terrorist attack and then be rebought when investors realise the profits of volkswagen and bmw or any other company will not be affected by the attacks. Bulls still in strong control but I feel the market is losing momentum and a drop could be around the corner. I have a small speculative short but keeping stops close as the odds are against me on this trade.

REPLY 07. Peter_ says: March 22, 2016 at 6:34 pm The recorded preservation of this entire generation of supposedly free interaction with forever free access by future humankind is both threatened and yet but a faint hope with scant possibility. This is just something we accept and yet silently deny. Lemmings do the same (we are told). Maybe before we start we should stop any (futile and unjustifiable) protest. We know that we are owned. Meaning that we are not free. It is evident that most of us like it like that. God knows that the devil moves in mysterious ways (even when it is obvious to us mere mortals).. And we know that this world is increasingly unhealthy for our children and more-so for our grandchildren and if there should be any great grand children etc. I am sure others have posted similar or elsewhere. Omens are rare. This is an Omen.

REPLY 08. Peter_ says: March 22, 2016 at 7:33 pm Berkshire Hathaway is one of the richest companies in the world, enjoying billions of dollars of cash on hand. Despite its longstanding success, however, the company has an unwritten yet steadfast policy against paying dividends to its shareholders. During the tenure of its current CEO, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway has only paid a dividend one time. That was in 1967, and to this day Buffett questions the decision, joking that he must have been in the bathroom when it was made. Instead of paying dividends, Berkshire Hathaway invests excess cash back into the company for research and development, expanding operations and making acquisitions. The company also engages in a generous stock buyback plan. In a Berkshire Hathaway buyback, shareholders often receive as much as 120% of market value for shares they wish to sell back to the company. This practice was originally referred to as a Ponzi scheme, being highly respectable in its day. Despite this present era of copious information being freely available (via internet) the general mass of the majority public remains seriously uninformed and otherwise stupid in the face of their own demise. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 22, 2016 at 8:03 pm Peter_ why are you ‘flying straight’ tonight? I’m only referring to the Berkshire post. The former is in your very inscrutably erudite prose. I do however like the: ‘God knows that the devil moves in mysterious ways (even when it is obvious to us mere mortals)’ Very nice indeed.

REPLY 09. purvez says: March 22, 2016 at 8:11 pm People, I have to apologise about my earlier posts this morning regarding the DJIA hitting the top trend line of the wedge and bouncing off etc. Until Krish mentioned ‘terrorist attack’ I had no clue of what had happened in Brussels. (I try and stay away from news as it makes my trading biased). However my sincere commiserations to the families of those affected and I did not mean to suggest that the drop this morning was caused by ‘market movements’ when it clearly wasn’t.

REPLY 10. GM says: March 22, 2016 at 10:14 pm https://www.tradingview.com/x/8lrppcCq/ Will this be the 7th straight green week for the Nas100? Could be. Longer-term, it’s headed to 2750.

REPLY 11. Krish says: March 23, 2016 at 9:11 am Any reason for the explosive move higher in the DAX today or just general market exuberance? We are in the drop window now and markets still pushing higher…Time to abandon the shorts and wait for a better signal for me. REPLY 1. GM says: March 23, 2016 at 11:45 am I suspect the market makers want every last short stop taken out before the plug is pulled. Ftse still going sideways, and sterling sliding versus dollar is helping my QID short. Overall on both positions I’m at breakeven still.

REPLY 12. purvez says: March 23, 2016 at 9:43 am This from J Snider of AlHambra is a must read for anyone interested in understanding what ‘money’ is today and how it started. Very informative, even though a tad ‘dry’ to read: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2016/03/22/in-some-ways-it-has-always-been-forward/

REPLY 13. GM says: March 23, 2016 at 12:32 pm Off-topic really, but lefties and statists galore in the comments section of this FT statist article. I rant a bit in the comments and try to put some lefties right. Waste of time, as Armstrong says, we’re going over the socialist cliff at full speed: https://t.co/7RfNlsIhnh

REPLY 14. purvez says: March 23, 2016 at 1:25 pm The top line of the wedge on the DJIA that I had shown earlier, has been broken to the downside at around 17583. As I write it is at 17550ish. Ideally it should come back to ‘kiss’ the upper line from the underside before peeling away. That would provide an ‘IDEAL’ swing short set up with a large down side target and a ‘tiny’ stop point. REPLY 1. GM says: March 23, 2016 at 4:42 pm I closed my shorts earlier this afternoon, around 3pm. I’m waiting for a H&S pattern to complete (on the shorter-term charts, 30 mins) as per Trader Moe’s guidelines. It could be close at hand, or not.

REPLY 15. carpediem01site says: March 23, 2016 at 6:31 pm My prediction : This is the top of the recovery wave we will decline into the end of March retrace and after April 18 it is all over and the panic or capitulation fase will kick in till second week of May. surprises will be on the downside.. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 23, 2016 at 9:01 pm carpediem, thanks very much for the prediction. It would help if you explained how you came to those conclusions please.

REPLY 16. carpediem01site says: March 23, 2016 at 10:11 pm There are a lot of indicators pointing to this time frame an important indicator is a crash cycle that was active in August 2015 and Jan 2016 and will return in the end of April into May,

REPLY 17. Peter_ says: March 24, 2016 at 5:18 am Submit your entry for event #3.. http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/

REPLY 18. Jegersmart says: March 24, 2016 at 4:38 pm Hi GM I do take a look at Moe’s once in a while but didn’t see anything that was worthwhile in short term trading *apart* from some of the levels he talks about. Should have stayed in matey, you were right:) J REPLY 1. GM says: March 24, 2016 at 6:41 pm Yes indeed, and I need to decide whether I’m swing trading or day trading I suppose. Not mutually exclusive though. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 24, 2016 at 7:18 pm GM, in my opinion, swing vs day trading are different in the time scales used. I trade off 5 min charts even though I constantly refer to hourly ones as well for the ‘bigger’ picture. With swing you have to have a much broader time scale and view of the market vs day trading and therefore associated stops and limits as well as position size. So although the basic idea of putting a trade on at a ‘support’/’resistance’ point still remains the 2 types of trades in all other ‘parameters’ are very different. Most people appear to have far more success with swing than day trading. Largely because you have to condition yourself to take many more tiny losses than big wins which psychologically is very hard to do. Particularly when you can have a string of 3-4 consecutive losses in a matter of hours. From the little you’ve mentioned I would definitely put you in the swing camp and whilst it’s ok to take profits early I usually find that markets tend to go further in either direction than one expects at swing trade points. I’m not totally sure what ‘pearl of wisdom’ the above is supposed to impart, other than to help clarify in the trader’s mind what their trading style might be. REPLY 1. GM says: March 25, 2016 at 12:15 am Thanks p. I’ll reload pretty soon, but I think ES 2100 beckons before any sizeable decline. This is a fascinating read: http://www.marketanthropology.com/2016/03/the-markets-graduate-to-commodities.html

19. stormchaser80 says: March 25, 2016 at 1:27 am My readers were ready for the downturn, and today’s reversal! https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/ REPLY 1. Valley says: March 25, 2016 at 2:17 am Good info, Storm. Congrats on exceeding market return by 8% so far this year! PALS is suggesting the following: Monday: open at 2030, close at 2010 Tuesday: open at 2015, close at 1990 Wednesday: chop at 1990 to 2000 Thursday: off to the races, up to 2100 by April 8. This is based upon seasonals, and all the lunar, planetary angles that PALS includes. REPLY 1. stormchaser80 says: March 25, 2016 at 2:37 am Thanks man! I would be very surprised to see 2100 again this decade. We shall see! REPLY 1. Valley says: March 25, 2016 at 6:34 pm As I have said several times, I am expecting a financial mania in the next 18 months. Not buy and hold (though would probably be best) but will do my best to trade it. 2. purvez says: March 28, 2016 at 3:04 pm Valley, by ‘financial mania’ do you mean a surge upwards? Thx for the PALS update. 3. valley says: March 28, 2016 at 6:06 pm Yes, all financial assets until end of 2017. 2. GM says: March 25, 2016 at 2:55 pm Always happy when my *guess* coincides with Valley’s view. I recall purvez mentioning that corrective moves are 5 waves, so 1 more wave to go? https://www.tradingview.com/x/xt7loBYT/ Enjoy the Easter break, although I believe US markets are open on Monday. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: March 25, 2016 at 4:03 pm 5 waves up is bullish, 3 waves up is corrective but the RSI agrees with a 3 wave corrective top here. (Nonetheless the pattern can still evolve within the bearish rollover pattern, but that would due solely to CB manipulation with current data and sentiment opposing). My take is with the synchronised head bump on daily RSI of Russell 2000 where the 50% line is now resistance instead of years of support. http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/ The washy wishy Tide is eventually turning regardless. 2. Peter_ says: March 25, 2016 at 7:35 pm Rules, Patterns and Characteristics, The Wave Principle Guide with Technical Analysis by Andrew Baptiste, Morgan Stanley – http://astrocycle.net/PDF/Wave_Guide.pdf 3. GM says: March 26, 2016 at 2:48 pm Study time, thanks. 3. carpediem01site says: March 27, 2016 at 11:47 am I follow you that the market will stay under pressure till Thursday how far down is hard to say (mayby SP 1950) but I think after that it is up again till April 18.

REPLY 20. Pulp says: March 25, 2016 at 7:12 pm You can spend hours simulating trades. Most auto trades don’t work. Literally nearly everything doesn’t work. RSI , bollinger, cross overs, distance away from the average, buying on Bollinger size change,martingayling up (Nick Leeson). In this particular simulation, sell when the 50-60 Exponential Moving Average widen. http://www.screencast.com/users/prince3000/folders/Default/media/290e044e-fb31-4b97-8269-463272c9204d REPLY 1. Pulp says: March 26, 2016 at 2:35 pm Im feeling more positive about auto trading today. Here is a Dax 1 day trade on above or below the BB-20-2 : http://www.screencast.com/users/prince3000/folders/Default/media/d5b540b1-305a-4733-b32d-b8dde34fce6b .. Its simple and effective, but you do have to have quite large stoploss of 500 pips.

REPLY 21. jegersmart says: March 27, 2016 at 7:39 am Why auto trade? Is it to free up time because you spend too much time on it? J REPLY 1. Pulp says: March 27, 2016 at 2:32 pm Nice point J – perhaps i’m wasting my time. Why Auto-trade is a very good question. One good reason i can think of, is that it is a good test of trading methods. You may think that you have found a good way to trade, but if you test that trading mechanism over a long enough time frame and data, it puts it into question.

REPLY 22. Barry says: March 28, 2016 at 12:19 am Well, I’ve tried not to infest the board with any more of my comments lately, but…….time to do a disservice…one….more….time…. As most know, I’ve been doing a scale-up sell strategy for the past several weeks, contrary to my actual trading system, and all it’s gotten me is a whole lot of pain….. That said, after running all the numbers Friday, my trading system has moved to a “Sell” signal… Which means liquidate all longs, and go 50% short… I’m already wayyyyy past that, so I’m not really changing anything, but thought a few of you would like to know that I’m officially on a system sell… As well, HY looks likes it’s rolling back over too, and in going through LOTS of stock charts every day, the sheer number of stocks that look like GREAT sales are just astounding right now… And believe me, if I had more money to short with, I would be….. *Jegers, if you’re still curious about JNJ, it ~now~ looks like a great sale too* Not saying there’s has to be a crash or anything, and certainly I really need to be better disciplined in following my own systems, but just that it looks like a great sale point right here, right now…. Wish it didn’t seem like everybody agrees with me right now (or me with them), but again, you have to trade what you see, and not what you hope or think… GL

REPLY 23. jegersmart says: March 28, 2016 at 8:06 am Barry Another ridiculous post, do you not have any shame??? haha Thanks Barry, always appreciated. p.s. I am not touching JNJ……it looks way to difficult to trade from a price point of view…. J REPLY 1. Barry says: March 28, 2016 at 4:11 pm haha I’m too old to have shame!! I’ve been trying to “contribute, by not contributing” the past week, but the logic still escapes me… And I thought about writing a post that would be of much more service to others… That one would be: “We’re OBVIOUSLY going into a bubble, therefore we’re absolutely going higher for the next 11 years…and you’re an idiot for thinking otherwise…. Unless we don’t go higher, and go lower…..or sideways….. That could happen too…… But either way, you’re an idiot, and I’m brilliant, so glad I’ve settled that for you…” That’s what I was THINKING about writing…. And I’m sure some would have thought, “~Finally~, a useful post from that jackass…” But I’m a weak man, Jegers,… With no shame…. *shaking head slowly side to side here* So I wrote briefly about what the charts and indicators were telling me ~now~, instead… Hope a few found it helpful…. Barry REPLY 1. purvez says: March 28, 2016 at 7:31 pm Barry, I DO HOPE it goes UP, DOWN AND SIDEWAYS in small (300 DJIA point) steps. That’s where the real money is to be made….for me at least. REPLY 1. Barry says: March 28, 2016 at 8:33 pm Hi Purvez… Glad I could be of some useful service… You’re ~all clear~ for 11 more years… See, Jegers… That’s how it’s done, sir….and we’ve been doing it all wrong… hehehehe

24. valley says: March 28, 2016 at 10:43 pm PALS: very negative Tuesday and Wednesday. somewhat negative Thursday and Friday. Quite positive next week. Given seasonal tendency of market to rally into April, will buy full position if we reach 1975 on SPX. REPLY 1. carpediem01site says: March 29, 2016 at 3:08 pm Shake hands I have a target SP 1950-1975 and Friday will be the buy day..

REPLY 25. Krish says: March 29, 2016 at 2:21 pm Nice drop in the dow on open and then pumpety pump pump. Up it goes! I think a pullback to 17k dow is due soon which probably tallies with 1975 on S&P roughly. Will be closing some shorts at that level. Currently short DOW, DAX and CRUDE OIL. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 29, 2016 at 3:46 pm Yes, I read that one wrong too. I was sitting on a nice 70+ point profit from pre-open and was expecting it to continue down. Ah well I’m glad I got out with my day’s quota because it decided to continue higher and has since been waffling within a 25 point range. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 29, 2016 at 4:45 pm I was waaay too chicken to take the ‘ride up’. After all who knows what Yellen will be yellin’. However now that it’s nicely set up by her I’m planning to take the ride down. As I write, the DJIA is challenging 17600 with the thrust from the 25 point waffle triangle (I mentioned earlier) complete. Once I see a small red candle on the DJIA 5m chart I’ll be taking a short position. If it goes higher then I’ll hedge until …. it gives up!! REPLY 2. Krish says: March 29, 2016 at 4:49 pm Yeh Yellen just blew it for the Bears. Clearly she was displeased with the loss of bullish momentum in stocks so had to pump it higher. Let’s see how the market finishes this week. FED still has maximum market control as evidenced today. All my shorts will be closed today if the market holds its gains.

REPLY 26. purvez says: March 29, 2016 at 5:07 pm Serious question for Barry (and others who are willing to bear big draw downs). Barry wrote : ” …I’ve been doing a scale-up sell strategy for the past several weeks…” Please may I ask why, at a minimum, you don’t hedge when the position goes against you? Where’s the ‘logic’ in NOT doing so? Is it because: i) You don’t have a ‘stop loss’ point? ii) You are worried you won’t know when to get rid of the hedge? iii) Cost of trade? iv) OR TOO MUCH MONEY?!!! OK that last one was to ‘rile’ you into thinking….but no apology extended.

REPLY 27. purvez says: March 29, 2016 at 6:35 pm We are at a CRITICAL juncture with the DJIA. It’s currently at 17635 (as I write) but the absolute maximum (if the wave count is to hold) is 17645. OUCH!! That is close and will be a ‘test’ of whether EW holds or not. Of course if it doesn’t hold then there is always the ‘alternative count’. …..now I just need to work out what THAT would be. LOL.

REPLY 28. Krish says: March 29, 2016 at 6:55 pm Out of my short positions apart from OIL. I did say i would wait until we got below 1975 S&P to short and I didn’t stick to it. Took a small loss but I should have been more patient! The wait continues…

REPLY 29. Barry says: March 29, 2016 at 7:10 pm Hi Purvez; 1 – when it hurts ~too~ much.. 2 – Absolutely…..and neither does anyone else… Let me know the ~exact~ turn point, and do it consistently, and I’ll have a new strategy… LOTS of people give a price target, or a date, or BOTH, but jeez….all you have to do is track people for a while, and you realize they don’t even know they’re just guessing, based upon lots of “crap”…. And to be fair, we’re ALL just guessing….. I usually try to get the probabilities on my side too, but it’s easy to see I started the current trade too soon… I say that only because I started selling when my own system was on a “Buy”, so that was an easy mistake to avoid… They’re never “easy” at the time, but I say easy in that I could look at my spreadsheet, on a “Buy”, and I sold anyway…. Discipline is a problem for me, and I’m paying for it….. That said, looking at the data and market ~at this point in time~, I would put on exactly the same positions I currently have… Wish I put them on today, versus building them up the past few weeks, but here we are… The gold short is a perfect example… I noticed Money-Flow rolling over on really just about every PM stock chart I look at, and this was weeks ago…. Price just continued higher… But like I said, it’s on every single chart…. And it’s STILL going down, and has been for weeks… RSI confirms the extreme as well…. So I’m pretty sure this is going to break, and the bigger the divergence, the bigger the break… So I’ve been adding to DUST, as it’s been going lower (PM stocks higher)… And, for just a few hours last week, I actually had a (tiny) profit on the entire position…. And now it’s back to getting hammered again today… Is it a bad trade? I don’t think so…. It’s just losing money ~at the moment~…. A LOT of money at the moment… And if I didn’t own it right now, I’d be buying DUST with both hands right now… But what else WOULD you do, if you already owned the position you’d buy if you didn’t already own it… The answer is….nothing… Just suck-it-up, and do nothing… 3 – not sure what you mean there… ???? 4 – Sometimes…. And if this trade works out, I won’t even be able to be safe around myself!! Boats and strippers for EVERYONE!!!! Make it rain!! Make it rain!! Anyway, fair questions…. No worries… REPLY 1. purvez says: March 29, 2016 at 7:56 pm Barry, LUUURVE your response….. Had a massive giggle. Only point I’d like to re-iterate is why don’t you ‘hedge’ when the market goes against you? To make sure your ‘understand’ when the market goes against you is when the price is ‘higher’/’lower’ in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION than when you entered it? That’s the MINIMUM point of ‘cover’. I just need to understand the psychology here really. I used to be hundreds of points ‘under’….in the past. Now I either ‘hedge’ within 20 DJIA points or am out of the trade. Either way I sleep well each night. REPLY 1. GM says: March 29, 2016 at 8:14 pm I don’t hedge purvez. I tend to leg into swing positions, then hold on, with mental stops. I’d rather get out and review with a loss than hold on with a hedge. I’d become disorientated I think. But I’ve never tried. Re markets, 78.6% fibs seem to be attracting ES and the NQ100, not far off those now. Lots of info out there that the rally is running on fumes, quarter-end window-dressing, all sorts of ratios screaming ‘sell’. I’m in cash, but not far off starting (again) to take position. I noticed today the USD was down, but so was oil, just to confuse everyone. REPLY 2. Barry says: March 30, 2016 at 2:50 am Helping people laugh from time to time is a goal of mine, so glad I could give a chuckle…. And what GM just said about hedging is pretty much it, for me too… Just adds a complication… If I have doubts on a trade, it’s time to lighten, or bail… Often wrong, never in doubt… hahaha And wouldn’t say I’ve ~never~ done it, but as I said, it just adds a complication to the whole thing, and it’s just easier to get out and re-group with a wad of cash, not a bunch of conflicting positions… The scaling into positions helps keep your Reward/Risk ratio somewhat more constant… As you add, yes, you’re increasing your risk, but you’re also increasing your reward on the other end, because your position size is bigger… If you DON’T add, your risk (losses) can continue to grow, but you won’t make more money on the other side, because your position size stayed the same… So your Reward/Risk ratio goes down…. Hope that helps…. Anyway, just got home from my golf league…. ~Now~ it’s time to review charts… *big sigh* REPLY 2. purvez says: March 30, 2016 at 8:16 am Barry, I do take your point about not knowing where to get rid of the hedge. As you say none of us have a crystal ball. This is the strategy I use: I take a hedge as soon as a position goes against me by a few points. Since I count EW waves I then wait for either 2 waves or 4 further waves to pass (depending on whether I think this is corrective or impulsive) and then close the hedge at the next 5 minute ‘opposite’ wave. If it goes against me again I take another hedge. I continue doing this until it breaks. Each time I lose a bit of money on the hedge but at least it’s tiny compared to letting the whole thing ride. There are times when I get whipsawed too but again that is small in the grand scheme of things. I guess I’m doing the equivalent of your ‘scaling in’ except in the form of hedging. Personally I find that easier to control.

REPLY 30. Krish says: March 29, 2016 at 8:27 pm My VIX longs are losing a lot at the moment. Trust volatility to die down just as I took a position. Risk remains to the upside anyway for the VIX and won’t take much of a bad few days to break even.

REPLY 31. GM says: March 29, 2016 at 11:06 pm Rambus, always interesting to read, especially if one has a bearish bias: http://rambus1.com/2016/03/27/weekend-report-93/ Could the Fed cave in within months and launch QE4? That’s the only way I can see his ‘jaws of life’ scenario happening. Would the UST bubble burst with a crashing dollar? Open minded me, always willing to change my view (except on gold longer-term). REPLY 1. purvez says: March 30, 2016 at 12:28 pm Hi GM, Rambus’ top trend line of the blue triangle on the ‘Jaws of Life’ is incorrect. To get ‘proper’ trend lines for a triangle you need to connect the bottoms of ‘a’ & ‘c’ and the tops of ‘b’ & ‘d’. Although connecting the START of ‘a’ to the top of ‘b’ is a good guidance for where ‘d’ might finish….it is just that, a guidance. We are still in the process of finalising ‘d’ currently. Of course the ‘upper limit’ for ‘d’ is the top of ‘b’. It also doesn’t help that Rambus’ numbering style is not in line with convention for a triangle on 2 counts viz: 1. He uses 1,2,3, etc when it should ideally be a,b,c etc. Nitpicking perhaps…. but if someone decided red lights meant ‘go’ then you’d see the kind of chaos that could cause. 2. He starts numbering at the START of the triangle rather than at the end of wave (his) 1. So…the bottom line is that I still think we are in a LARGE triangle from the August low and just completing ‘d’ from the Feb lows. We then have to wait for ‘e’ down before we have a FINAL thrust wave up to lay this ageing bull to rest.

REPLY 32. jegersmart says: March 30, 2016 at 7:38 am “Please may I ask why, at a minimum, you don’t hedge when the position goes against you? Where’s the ‘logic’ in NOT doing so?” Purvez, what do you mean by “hedge”? Do you rather mean “lock in loss”? J REPLY 1. purvez says: March 30, 2016 at 8:28 am Jeger, I take an equal and opposite position rather than close my original trade. However hedging is the exception. I usually close my trade out at break even or a couple of points profit if its reversing. I can do this since I’m micro managing at the 5 minute level. I hedge if there is a ‘sudden’ movement against me and I can’t figure out why that happened then it’s easier to hedge whilst I dig around for the ‘reason’. Also this way I capture the movement against me which I would otherwise not have done. REPLY 1. jegersmart says: March 30, 2016 at 8:49 am Hi P Ah, I remember someone on another board several years ago doing this – I guess if it works for you then you should keep doing it. Perhaps it suits your timeframe and the size of movements you trade? Remember, I don’t subscribe to the notion that one can ever really assign a definite “reason” for a price action – unless perhaps it is a single equity where the number of variables are somewhat lower than an index encompassing a number of companies with different business models, income streams, sectors, and industries. The only thing we can know for sure is that when price rises there are more buyers than sellers and vice versa. All vimho ofc. J REPLY 1. purvez says: March 30, 2016 at 11:59 am Hi Jeger Yes it works for me so I do intend to keep on doing it. Usually the ‘reason’ is some bit of ‘news’ (that I try and stay away from) which causes the ‘sudden’ movement. Take yesterday for example. The DJIA was falling nicely after the open and then it suddenly stopped and reversed. Although in this particular case I just stopped out at my ‘quota’ point at any other time I would have hedged and hunted for the reason. The reason as it turned out was Yellen scheduled to talk. (I had forgotten about that). Once I know the reason then I make a judgement about either holding onto the hedge or dropping it as per my ‘strategy’. Of course with Yellen still ‘going to’ talk I would have just held my hedge until I knew the results of her utterances. My ‘strategies’ are just that…not hard and fast rules. I break everything in the book as often as I need to to gain my ‘quota’.

33. Krish says: March 30, 2016 at 8:15 am S&P now heading to 2100 before a drop. No shorting for me until then. Fantastic success by Yellen pumping up asset prices. She really knows how to screw the bears over

REPLY 34. jegersmart says: March 30, 2016 at 8:38 am Well divergences are building, I don’t know if we will see 2100 this time round or not – for good measure I added to my existing IWM short position this morning. Good luck all. J REPLY 1. Krish says: March 30, 2016 at 10:21 am Anything is possible with Yellen in office. That’s my biggest learning over the last 5 years. REPLY 1. GM says: March 30, 2016 at 12:03 pm Krish, you ever wonder why Bernanke didn’t bother to ‘save the markets’ back in 2008? Just couldn’t be bothered maybe? Well, this current Emperor also has no clothes (metaphorically only, thank God), and when things turn against them (a certainty), she will be impotent. For now, for some reason, animal spirits seem to be still evident, but let’s see if ES can take out the 78.6 fib level today? Bulls have expanded a lot of energy to get up here, quarter end approaches, I visit a bull blog, and they are once again diving in to all sorts of cr*p, and can only see upside. Meanwhile, most bears are in trouble, or have been squeezed out, or (like yourself) are resigned to the Yellen put carrying us ever higher. Risk-reward for some shorts today seems excellent to me. Jegers, are you planning to subscribe to RSOTC please? I’m mulling. REPLY 1. GM says: March 30, 2016 at 12:24 pm Going to leg in via 3 short trades on FTSE, just took first, futures were at 6144. Good luck bears. 2. purvez says: March 30, 2016 at 12:35 pm GM, please may I ask. If you trade goes ‘for’ you, when do you put on the other 2 legs? What’s the criteria? I sort of understand if it goes against you then you add more at various resistance levels but if it goes ‘for’ you (and I very much wish it does, for my sake as well as yours) then how do you know when to add more? 3. Krish says: March 30, 2016 at 1:14 pm I’m resigned to accepting the stock market will not crash and stay down as long as Yellen and co. are in office and remain dovish. I certainly don’t expect stocks to blow upwards with huge gains. Good luck with your shorts. I certainly don’t see the risk/reward you see today. I still maintain I will short US markets if we drop below 1975 S&P. 4. GM says: March 30, 2016 at 1:41 pm puvez, in this instance I see a shelf of support (possible H&S neckline) on ftse futures at 6,000, so unless we take that level out, I wouldn’t add any more. But if we go up, I would look at all sorts of things before adding more. I do rely on my nose, not just charts. I do sniff a top at the moment, within days. 5. purvez says: March 30, 2016 at 1:56 pm Thx GM for that explanation. It’s always interesting to understand others ‘points of view’.

35. Pulp says: March 30, 2016 at 1:16 pm Divergence of Indices: https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eGDAXI&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=l&c=%5EFTSE,%5EDJI&a=v&p=s&lang=en-GB®ion=GB https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eGDAXI&t=my&q=l&l=off&z=l&c=%5EFTSE,%5EDJI&a=v&p=s&lang=en-GB®ion=GB

REPLY 36. Peter_ says: March 30, 2016 at 2:39 pm Remember April Fool’s Day? Ever been caught napping? REPLY 1. GM says: March 30, 2016 at 2:49 pm I started my career in the financial world on April 1st 1987, with Halifax BS. Took me 21 years to bust them. Now the world…!!

REPLY 37. GM says: March 30, 2016 at 2:39 pm ES tapped its 78.6 fib twice, will it hold? http://screencast.com/t/NOJTqr8GL2YP NQ100 is 45 points away from its 78.6 fib. Next fib up for ftse is at c. 6260 from memory.

REPLY 38. Barry says: March 30, 2016 at 2:57 pm Purvez, a question for you… ” Each time I lose a bit of money on the hedge but at least it’s tiny compared to letting the whole thing ride.” Why would you go into a position that you already realize helps you lose money?? REPLY 1. purvez says: March 30, 2016 at 5:45 pm Hi Barry, that particular point needs to be read in conjunction with what I was explaining to Jeger. Hedging is not my standard procedure. I can usually get out at BE or 1-2 point profit. However there are times when I start a position and then I get a ‘sudden’ movement against me. Rather than just kill it I place the hedge which gives me time to gather info/thoughts. Of course once I start a hedge and after every attempt at taking it off, it moves further against me then I just repeat the process rather than bailing out. I guess there may be some benefit in bailing out i.e. no further costs….so I guess it’s just habit. In a way talking about it helps me to analyse my thoughts and actions. Thanks very much for that. REPLY 1. GM says: March 30, 2016 at 6:34 pm I confess I don’t grasp what you are explaining purvez. If you have a hedge equal to the original position, and the original trade is going further into the red, wouldn’t the hedge be going further into the black, hence limiting your losses? I may need a figures example to grasp it, but no sweat. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 30, 2016 at 7:21 pm GM, what you say is correct. Most of my hedge transactions are profitable in their own right. However, having removed a hedge because I had counted the appropriate no. of waves, it still goes against me then I have to let the market move against me in a 5m span. THAT is the amount I’m losing each time. Here’s a ‘figures’ example: Say I’m currently hedging a short transaction from say 60 (round sum simplification here). The market continues higher till 100 and then the next 5m bar ends at 96. So I remove my hedge at 96 and the market continues down to 90 but then reverses. To ensure I’m not being whipsawed I wait till there is a completed 5m bar above 100. Say that 5m bar finishes at 103. So I’m now 7 points down (+ spread). The example I’ve given is not too far from the truth. Most reversal bars are tiny and therefore I can do this 3-4 times before it starts to take it’s toll. Hope this helps. There is one other thing I do which I have not explained: If I believe that my original trade was flawed then I continue my hedging until I get a smallish correction which is larger than the sum of the ‘losses’ on my hedges and then I close both positions. That way I usually get out with a small profit or very occasionally a small loss. Most of this happens daily thanks to the markets internal girations. It is tedious work but can be rewarding too. 2. GM says: March 30, 2016 at 7:38 pm OK, I get it now. Yep, certainly sounds tedious, and obviously crucial to get the wave counts right more often than not. But you know what you’re doing, so good that it produces profits for you.

39. jegersmart says: March 30, 2016 at 3:07 pm Yep – its all there…..could go on for a while ofc, but if your timeframe is more than a few days or week…. I added a DAX short position now. J REPLY 1. John Li says: March 30, 2016 at 9:29 pm Why? Nicolas is still on vacation…he needs to return.

REPLY 40. Chien-Jen says: March 31, 2016 at 2:09 am

REPLY 41. Chien-Jen says: March 31, 2016 at 2:09 am

REPLY 42. Chien-Jen says: March 31, 2016 at 2:10 am

REPLY 43. Jegersmart says: March 31, 2016 at 9:39 am Scout long on VIX – stop below recent low. GLA J REPLY 1. John Li says: March 31, 2016 at 2:14 pm TVIX? GL.

REPLY 44. purvez says: March 31, 2016 at 5:11 pm Here’s a picture of the VERY SHORT TERM. This chart shows the action from around 09:00BST till 18:00BST. http://postimg.org/image/tt8f6kpgx/ Amazing trend line being drawn by the market. I wonder what happens when it breaks? There are already 5 touches, it’s just a matter of time I guess. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 31, 2016 at 5:51 pm Sorry, should have said, that’s the DJIA all hours….but I hope you guys know that by now. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 31, 2016 at 6:48 pm And when it does break this happens: http://postimg.org/image/t9qnh9g8t/ REPLY 1. purvez says: March 31, 2016 at 6:49 pm P.S. That is the updated picture at 19:45BST

45. Krish says: March 31, 2016 at 5:22 pm Opened a Dow long position based on the views of the man who has been most correct over the last 5 years. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/31/tom-lee-when-and-why-i-expect-new-stock-records.html He clearly sees something the rest of us don’t and has been very successful because of it. Will hold this position with No stop loss. I will close and switch to short if the S&P drops below 1975 though. Yeh I know I’ve switched from bearish to bullish but all successful traders do that. The trend has clearly changed and this is more than a short squeeze now imo. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 31, 2016 at 6:01 pm Ouch Krish, given how far this wave has gone would you not, at least, want to wait for a reasonable correction before establishing position? REPLY 2. GM says: March 31, 2016 at 6:28 pm He’s just an industry perma-bull, I mean that is blindingly obvious surely? http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/14/a-look-back-at-the-many-bullish-calls-of-jpms-thomas-lee/ Didn’t do your due diligence there krish, hard lines. REPLY 1. GM says: March 31, 2016 at 6:48 pm Amusingly, the article mentions 2 times he was cautious…both wrong. Just a guesser. REPLY 2. Krish says: March 31, 2016 at 7:02 pm Point taken. I didn’t say he was 100% but mostly right. Please let me know the name of an analyst or forecaster who has had more correct calls than Tom Lee over the last 5 years. My position is small. I will add on a market dip but as I said will switch to short below S&P 1975. REPLY 3. jegersmart says: April 1, 2016 at 7:16 am Krish Good luck although I would reiterate my earlier suggestions along the same lines that you should never trade on someone else’s advice – EVERYONE is wrong sooner or later. Switching from bearish to bullish is never a problem and should be encouraged, but understanding *why* one switches is even more important. If you switch from bearish to bullish based on someone else’s opinion…..well that would be pretty dangerous imho. At least you have an idea of when to get out if you need to. J REPLY 1. Krish says: April 1, 2016 at 2:36 pm Took a risky long on the Dow when it dropped earlier and banked 95 points. It’s a buy the dip market for now. The riskiest is trade is being short but it also has the greatest reward at the moment. I’m reckon Dow 18k will happen this month and punch a gaping hole in the bear market scenario. This is based on my own feeling. Tom Lee just provides me with a bit more confidence. Solar cycles, zero hedge and greedometer have resulted me losing money. Only my own ideas have allowed me to remain overall in profit so I do trade my own ideas mainly.

REPLY 46. purvez says: March 31, 2016 at 7:33 pm Some further thoughts on this ‘yet forming’ huge triangle since last May’s high. We’ve completed ‘A’ to Aug low. ‘B’ to Nov high. ‘C’ to Feb low and may have completed ‘D’ in the last day or so at Mar end high. So that leaves ‘E’ down. Now one of the things that happens in conjunction with ‘E’ waves is some sort of ‘news’ item which the market then attributes as being the ‘reason’ for the ‘E’ wave. So….I’m wondering whether tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll numbers may turn out to be that news? I read somewhere today that the ADP numbers and the NFP numbers sort of gyrate around each other but then cancel out by the end of the quarter. Apparently the nos have continued that pattern this quarter but with ADP lower and NFP higher. So the ‘article’ was suggesting that to even out the NFP nos will have to be LOWER!! Of course all guess work, but that’s what turns this mad cap Market that we all love so much. If the NFP numbers do come out much lower than expected then I will take that as a sign that we are in ‘E’ down (but staying above Feb low) ….but wait bad news equals good news because more QE can be expected. OH HECK!! Why did I ever get into this mad cap circular logic, up my own hooter, game?! REPLY 1. GM says: March 31, 2016 at 8:23 pm Tying in with your view p, the dollar due to bounce? http://screencast.com/t/Dv7Xa3hDlGsu Would hammer oil, and hopefully the markets. REPLY 1. purvez says: March 31, 2016 at 9:54 pm Yep GM, dare I say it another triangle forming there too. There, I’ve jinxed that one too.

REPLY 47. valley says: March 31, 2016 at 9:42 pm Friday should sell off (hopefully) a lot. I won’t be short SPY or long VXX options past tomorrow, as PALS is quite positive until April 5. REPLY 1. GM says: March 31, 2016 at 10:26 pm So down 10-15% tomorrow? Cool. REPLY 1. valley says: March 31, 2016 at 10:31 pm Hey Guys, I am moving to Stormchaser’s site for future PALS posts, until JH continues his articles. Have enjoyed this site for several years and will return when JH continues. Thanks for all of the comments and ideas for trading. This is not an April fools joke (although some may believe PALS is a continuous April fools joke =)) REPLY 1. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 7:43 am Valley, will await your return here. 2. GM says: April 1, 2016 at 9:58 am That’s sad to hear valley. What about when he goes subscription only shortly? No one will read your stuff? Shame. 3. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 2:13 pm Excuse my manners Valley. Meant to say, ‘Thank You’ for all your guidance. I believe you’ve brought together something quite unique in PALS which has been helpful to most of us here. 4. carpediem01site says: April 1, 2016 at 3:16 pm Hi Valley, Sorry to read that you are leaving this blog but I m also on Storm.. so I will meet you there.. Next week should be super bullish till new moon 7-8 April after that we will see a correction comming when we are near OPEX these are my thoughts.. Cheers.

48. jegersmart says: April 1, 2016 at 7:19 am Hi Valley Look forward to seeing you back here soon. J REPLY 1. valley says: April 1, 2016 at 8:52 pm Thanks guys. Appreciate your input over the years. Learned a lot.

REPLY 49. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 7:52 am Here’s the DJIA on April 1st at around 08:40BST. It shows the late Jan early Feb double bottom and the subsequent ramp up. I was fairly certain that we were going to break through the bottom of that wedge back on Tuesday last but yellin’ Yellen arrived in the nick of time. We are now approaching it again and it will be the 4th touch. However I suspect we’ll get a small bounce at that point before it finally succumbs. http://postimg.org/image/t4lvtnr39/ REPLY 1. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 1:33 pm Following the NFP report the bottom blue line of the wedge, in the chart above, was touched/broken slightly and it is currently hovering at that line as I write. I’m still expecting a small bounce from here (somewhere in the region of 17650ish) before we finally break it decisively. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 1:37 pm Sorry typo above. It should read (somewhere in the region of 17750ish). I’ll post a chart shortly as to why I think it will get towards there. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 1:42 pm This is a picture from the 30th March high up to date. Looks very much like a Leading Diagonal to me and those usually get retraced a significant percentage. http://postimg.org/image/4rcd0r1bb/ If however the current decline drops below 17530ish then I’m wrong about the retracement. 2. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 2:42 pm Ok this is freakish. I need to ‘bottle’ whatever today’s ‘magic potion’ is!! I know Diagonals both Leading and Ending get retraced quickly…..but THIS?!%*&!? I’m taking my ‘profit’ and lying down in my darkened corner to contemplate on my navel. 3. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 6:12 pm I’m beginning to wish I had ignored my navel now!! That’s about 30+ points I’ve just lost out on. Would have bought me some VERY NICE wine. However it’s getting TOO close for comfort to the start of the Leading Diag (17790ish). IF it does breach that then we are headed towards 17900 next. I do hope that’s not the case though….I’m bored with this ramp higher.

50. Jegersmart says: April 1, 2016 at 12:24 pm If it wasn’t Friday I would probably look to add to my DAX short positions tbh…..if GLD/GDX/Glencore drop like that next week I may take April off….^^ J REPLY 1. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 1:47 pm Can’t remember J. Are you short GLD/GDX?…or ‘take April off? (in disgust).

REPLY 51. Chien-Jen says: April 1, 2016 at 1:14 pm

REPLY 52. Chien-Jen says: April 1, 2016 at 1:19 pm REPLY 1. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 1:45 pm Thanks Chien Jen. The above chart (stocks above 50MA) is something that my 2 brain cells can handle. The one above that unfortunately someone will have to ‘explain’ it’s significance. REPLY 1. Chien-Jen says: April 1, 2016 at 3:39 pm SP500 vs Option-Adjusted Spread ??? REPLY 2. Peter_ says: April 1, 2016 at 4:11 pm Red box comparison, esp the option adjusted spread, add the mega rollover and macro EW bear take and the Chef can only create a Bundt cake out of it all. Imagine the centre of the cake is not just a hole but in reality a black hole. The sidewalls go all the way around. Something like that tsunami in that Interstellar movie but with no escape.

REPLY 53. Pulp says: April 1, 2016 at 2:51 pm DAX Cross downwards on the 12/50 sma: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/H9bbn

REPLY 54. alphahorn says: April 1, 2016 at 3:18 pm It’s been a pretty easy move to count waves on with well defined 2/4 – 1/3 channels. Here’s my chart from earlier this week Here it is today:

REPLY 55. Krish says: April 1, 2016 at 6:08 pm DOW longs going very well so far. No-one but the FED to thank for it. I reckon we can hit new highs in US stocks towards the end of this month. I would expect a dip before a power rally into end of the month. If oil crashes then i reckon the DOW will drop around 10% before a recovery bounce into mid year. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 1, 2016 at 6:15 pm …or just say ‘thanks’ for a second chance, Krish? REPLY 2. barrybrewer says: April 1, 2016 at 6:22 pm Don’t forget to thank Tom Lee too…

REPLY 56. John Li says: April 1, 2016 at 8:09 pm Given zero sunspots today, I am all-in, and have bought 20% OTM SPX on my entire account. REPLY 1. GM says: April 3, 2016 at 10:30 pm John, zero sunspots = bearish results is that right? If so, good luck!

REPLY 57. Peter_ says: April 2, 2016 at 12:12 pm Ha! So the plan is to direct all of the entire broken world QE into the US marketry as a last ditch attempt to save themselves by saving the great creator of all gravy. My favourite song for all such occasions is by Air Supply… Making love out of nothing at all…. Out of nothing at all, out of nothing at all, Out of nothing at all, out of nothing at all, ad infinitum

REPLY 58. Chien-Jen says: April 2, 2016 at 2:48 pm

REPLY 59. Chien-Jen says: April 2, 2016 at 2:50 pm

REPLY 60. scott says: April 3, 2016 at 5:30 pm bulls enjoy chasing the last 2 %… bears have been saying that for the last 7% move. i’m still in the bear camp. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfkqeP5iyEc&feature=em-subs_digest see retest or push through 1800 spx by 4th of july fireworks

REPLY 61. Peter_ says: April 3, 2016 at 8:06 pm Wikileaks appears to have started a new millennia trend of digitized information leaking into the public domain sooner or later… To begin with this should ( but will it?) change the world (as we appear to have become accustomed to it [the world that is] either willingly or otherwise). Making the Internet creation a gift to all humanity in perpetuity has to be the greatest gift next to life itself. Unless, of course, all humanity is/remains heavily in favour of all things evil in perpetuity in which case you just got to laugh… again… http://tinyurl.com/h4wes5p After all, the average person that wins a fortune makes the switch in a nanosecond. REPLY 1. GM says: April 3, 2016 at 10:58 pm These wealthy people aren’t evil, they’re merely the most advanced amongst our species, for various reasons they have accumulated surpluses. The most advanced will always end up in power, as they are able to put aside emotion to advance the interests of their own. Good for them. I watched a documentary on Canadian bears a while back, amazing creatures. Watched a poor mother bear howl as one of her 2 young didn’t make a long swim to an island full of resources. Horrible to watch, upsetting. The same mother and her mate (the big daddy bear) later together killed another female in an unprovoked attack, apparently to prevent their own bloodline from a potential threat. Were the two bears evil? I don’t believe so. Just living their bear lives. Mankind thinks far too highly of itself, we’re advanced, but we’re only animals, living our human lives. It’s tough being an animal, but their company is welcome. http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/its-not-easy-being-animal.html ( I rescued a medium-sized spider I spotted as I was taking a shower yesterday, I am scared of big spiders, so it was a bold move, but necessary. However it appeared to have been damaged in the rescue attempt, by my handling or by some water, and was shriveled up on the top of the shower screen where I placed it. I was pissed off that my attempt to save another life might have had the opposite effect. I was moved to think of the fragility of life, the irony and pointlessness of it (in the grand scheme of things). When I’d finished showering, I noticed the spider had vanished, I assumed it had fallen off, but couldn’t find it. I feared the worst. But the next morning it was back in the bottom of the shower, alive and well, so I moved it to the window sill before showering, pondering where it would find its next meaty fly. I felt relieved and joyful. My point: who gives a shit about the wealthy and the powerful, we create our own world through our actions and our state of mind, and our interactions with other animals, humans and otherwise. Don’t be a victim of the shit that lies ahead, it’s always been the same, always will be, just prepare as best you can, and rise above it). Good night. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: April 4, 2016 at 9:42 am Yes, most creatures are a product of their environment. Why not change the environment? p.s. bears are unable to do this to a very large degree – humans are. J REPLY 1. GM says: April 4, 2016 at 6:16 pm We don’t want to re-hash the debate jeger, but the ‘environment’ on earth is often difficult, hence animals will need to fight like hell to survive. I suspect the brief period of warming will pass, and a mini-ice age will make matters worse for humans and other species. Humans certainly the most advanced animals, so many ways to kill in volume. 2. Peter_ says: April 4, 2016 at 6:54 pm Don’t be naive. Systemic secretion of proceeds from massive embezzlement, devastating drugs, human trafficking, bribery, corruption and pure theft by banksters, gangsters, public figures, royalty, heads of state for 40 years with not a peep from anyone is evil, sickening and needs eradicating. This entity is directly responsible for promoting the starvation of millions in Africa alone. All because of evil greed, by all involved. Be careful which bus you catch. Meanwhile know that the turn is straight ahead…http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/ REPLY 1. GM says: April 4, 2016 at 7:02 pm ‘Twas ever thus Peter_, and ’twill be for ever more, so get used to it, mankind will be ruled by those you call evil, I call more advanced. Greeks, Romans, Ottomans, Germans, British, Americans. It isn’t going to stop.

62. Pulp says: April 4, 2016 at 8:35 am Free info (not paid for service): Dax topped this time last year at just under 12380 13th April.. After the top it dropped 1000 points in two weeks.

REPLY 63. Krish says: April 4, 2016 at 8:37 am Pump pump pump! Dow longs doing great. Cheers Janet!

REPLY 64. GM says: April 4, 2016 at 11:29 am Closed my short this morning, teeny tiny profit, but happy to be out. Possibility Ftse is going to pop up to some major fibs. That which doesn’t go down, will go up. Bears beware…for a brief period. REPLY 1. GM says: April 4, 2016 at 10:27 pm So tempting to get fully short here, but perhaps best to wait for the confirmed trend change.

REPLY 65. Phil White says: April 5, 2016 at 6:13 am Is that what this site has now become, GM talking to himself. Hope John Hampson is OK. REPLY 1. GM says: April 5, 2016 at 10:59 am Welcome back Phil (or is it Mark, similar tone).

REPLY 66. jegersmart says: April 5, 2016 at 8:46 am I am taking profit on 3 out of the 8 short DAX positions just now. J

REPLY 67. Pulp says: April 5, 2016 at 9:38 am DAX: We are on the third lower high: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/Hj0bn

REPLY 68. Jegersmart says: April 5, 2016 at 9:45 am Thanks Pulp, I had a rough target of 9250-9400 but don’t want to be greedy (on all of them). J

REPLY 69. Jegersmart says: April 5, 2016 at 11:11 am FFS, is there no one capable of using a question mark (?) ? J REPLY 1. GM says: April 5, 2016 at 9:48 pm Hanging my head in shame here.

REPLY 70. Krish says: April 5, 2016 at 2:02 pm DOW bouncing back. Did Yellen make some more phone calls?

REPLY 71. Jegersmart says: April 5, 2016 at 3:29 pm I am taking some more DAX shorts off now, will keep 30% with stops at appropriate levels. J

REPLY 72. Peter_ says: April 5, 2016 at 6:31 pm Bulls must buy with all they got, go mega short gold and more on the side. More, more via fanciful CFD’s, EFT’s and leveraged futures. Next week there will be none of y’all. Too good to mention. Bye

REPLY 73. Krish says: April 5, 2016 at 6:49 pm Was a little worried to see the European markets drop so much but US has resisted very well. This little pullback should be coming to an end allowing the DOW to power ahead through 18k later this month. The trend is very bullish and I think it’s foolish to short until we see a clear break in the trend. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: April 6, 2016 at 7:23 am A lot of different views, for me it is foolish to go short at bottoms and long at tops. Problem is, no one knows what they really are until afterwards…… Krish, may I ask what you use to make these calls? All I can see on most US indices is negative divergencies building since about Mid-March, which makes me very cautious going long. You will remember I went heavily long the QQQ’s when *positive* divergences were in place at or near the most recent lows? I am just wondering how you come to any decisions in general? All I remember from you are statements like “DAX should hit 13k by end of year, I am long” and so on……do you have processes or a system in place to follow? Cheers J REPLY 1. Krish says: April 7, 2016 at 8:36 am I don’t care about negative divergences. When you have the FED in control these tools that have worked in the past will be a complete hit and miss. When the FED loses credibility we can start using normal tools again confidently. A lot of people have been saying the FED is losing credibility but I think their credibility is around 90% of the peak. Once it drops below 60% this bear market can get started. Until then we can see market crashes only in our dreams.

REPLY 74. scott says: April 5, 2016 at 9:50 pm http://www.t3live.com/index.php/articles/market-analysis/5964-jeffcooper20160405.html crash cycles REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: April 6, 2016 at 7:44 am Thanks Scott, this Jeff Cooper seems to have it all figured out – with diagrams too….! But no, seriously I am not criticising – if he is asking for subscriptions instead of making hundreds of millions in the markets make sure he is teaching you how to do this yourself, and how to apply it ahead of time so you can actually use it as tradeable/investible material…? imho J

REPLY 75. scott says: April 5, 2016 at 9:51 pm astro cycle http://trading-daze.blogspot.com/

REPLY 76. geno0010 says: April 6, 2016 at 5:01 am Time to short again

REPLY 77. Jegersmart says: April 6, 2016 at 7:34 am Took last DAX shorts off this morning. Just FYI.

REPLY 78. Jegersmart says: April 6, 2016 at 9:54 am Naive? Not a word I would use. Surrendering is just not taking responsibility. “Look, I am helpless and weak – I cannot help myself or others, and those that have stood on the heads of those they have been allowed to take advantage of are my heroes. I want to be like them.” Mindblowingly bizarre thinking right there. Unfortunately, the 90%of people that are sleepwalking zombies agree with you. You would be the guy 100 hundred years ago saying that “slavery? get used to it, it was ever thus and so will it ever be”. Just utterly closed-minded and weak with a nice does of narcissism thrown in for good measure. You should open a shelter for the “least advanced” giving out hot cups of “lie back and take it like I am”. And charge them for it as well, that’s the way anyone does anything because it is “human nature”. Terrifying how blind people can be. imho J REPLY 1. GM says: April 6, 2016 at 12:42 pm “Look, I am helpless and weak – I cannot help myself or others, and those that have stood on the heads of those they have been allowed to take advantage of are my heroes. I want to be like them.” jegers, who are you quoting there? Not me for sure. Just wondered who? I’d say those who don’t accept our nature are blind or idealistic, I am a pragmatic realist. REPLY 2. GM says: April 6, 2016 at 2:57 pm One has to be blind to imagine slavery has vanished: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contemporary_slavery I am so glad I see reality, and have no biases that blind me. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 6, 2016 at 5:23 pm The BIGGEST slavery that exists today is ‘Debt Slavery’ and on that count apart from the top 5-7% of the worlds population we are ALL slaves. Just wish I knew which ‘master’ to obey!! REPLY 1. GM says: April 6, 2016 at 6:35 pm Debt is a matter of choice more often than not IMO (so much consumption and waste). It was weird to read jegers contention that one might have said 100 years ago that slavery will continue, given that he probably believes it doesn’t, but in fact (if one had said that it would continue) one would have been correct. So, that tells me a lot about the cognitive dissonance at work for jegers. Funny old world eh? 2. purvez says: April 6, 2016 at 7:23 pm Yes GM you are right in the ‘letter of the ‘word”….debt is a matter of choice but for a HUGE swathe of the populace, driven by ‘marketing hype’ and ‘supposedly’ cheap credit it is a powerful drug. (One that I can claim to being seduced by for a very looooong time). For MOST there is not much ‘choice’ in the matter sadly. It takes ‘knowledge’ and ‘intelligence’ and ‘perseverance’ to break the habit. Even then getting out of it’s clutches is a battle that can wear the greatest of ‘Goliath’s’ amongst us down…..am I giving my ‘game’ away here? I do hope so because I NEVER want anyone else to go through what I had to.

79. eclectic says: April 6, 2016 at 1:16 pm ??? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_on_the_shoulders_of_giants

REPLY 80. GM says: April 6, 2016 at 3:49 pm I’ve re-loaded 75% into short FTSE again on the bounce today, this time I will hold on. Rest to be added tomorrow. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 6, 2016 at 5:27 pm GM, the ONLY trades to put on are the one’s where you know WHEN you are going to get off….in either direction. My comment stems from your comment : ‘…,this time I will hold on’. REPLY 1. GM says: April 6, 2016 at 5:39 pm Yes, poorly worded, I have a mental stop at the 6305 level on the index. Two big fibs up there. Hoping the falling trendline will hold though, with a divergent RSI. https://www.tradingview.com/x/OSiAkCkt/ REPLY 1. purvez says: April 6, 2016 at 7:12 pm Aaah good. I really don’t want anyone to be burned like I was when I didn’t have ‘that simple strategy’ worked out. 2. GM says: April 6, 2016 at 9:07 pm I wouldn’t be surprised to see ES tag 2087 before rolling over, maybe tomorrow. I’d add my final short there (on the FTSE). Nikkei already leading the way down though, off 9% already from recent peak. Suspect if (when) other markets join in, it’ll be fast and furious.

REPLY 81. GM says: April 7, 2016 at 11:37 am Added my final tranche of shorts at 11.30am. Hoping that the top is in (for now): @bloomnkitty Pattern still on track imo. Last 50 day peak in early Nov saw 3rd day higher before rolling over. pic.twitter.com/x2BhdYeYEp — Zigzag (@zigzag_23) April 7, 2016 Good luck to bears!

REPLY 82. purvez says: April 7, 2016 at 6:23 pm This is a chart of the DJIA from 4th April high to 19:15BST today. Unless it drops further beyond 17450 I favour another ramp higher to the top line. http://postimg.org/image/5p2wn0sn3/ The reason I say that is because the ALL the waves from 4th April high to 5th April low are 3 wavers at the 5 minute level. So I’m thinking that that drop represents wave [A]. If we get to the top line again then that represents wave [B] and then we’ll have another wave [C] down which will probably extend to 2x wave [A] at least. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 7, 2016 at 8:48 pm Thinking big whilst using a microscope needs some special kind of spectacles but counting waves when they not arrived yet takes pure imagination. If I appear skeptical then you now seeing clearly. But I been wrong before many times, so its not a problem. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 7, 2016 at 10:26 pm Peter_ I understand your scepticism. I too am wrong many times (usually within each day) but without ‘some method’ of counting waves before they arrive it would be impossible to trade. I notice that you too make prognostications about waves before their arrival. Using a microscope to trade does not preclude me from ‘seeing big’. My 2 brain cells preclude me from ‘thinking’ beyond the next second.

REPLY 83. Krish says: April 8, 2016 at 1:58 pm Fantastic recovery by the Bulls. Onwards and upwards. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 8, 2016 at 2:35 pm Yes indeed Krish….so it would seem. Do have a ‘small profit’ level to get out at if need be. GL. REPLY 2. GM says: April 8, 2016 at 5:23 pm Krish, a comment from Moe’s today indicated that market makers were left with lots of unsold shares, so they went for the gap up to unload to mugs. I’m happy to see up overnight, down in daytime trading, indicates the end is nigh. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 8, 2016 at 6:56 pm Although I’m expecting a rise to 17750+ on the DJIA in the next session or two, I too am working on the assumption that we started our journey down towards the Aug/Feb lows from the Monday 4th April highs. IF/WHEN we get towards 17750 I’m going to become a swing trader till we get towards the Aug/Feb lows. I will of course continue day trading to keep my practice up, but the bulk of my trade capital will be in the ‘SWING’. I can see my better half getting annoyed when I get up in the middle of the night to ‘check on the market’s progress’!! Hmmm better get the spare room ready!! LOL!!

REPLY 84. purvez says: April 8, 2016 at 2:53 pm As I write we are at DJIA 17666ish. I can see a quick scenario where it drops to 17600 or just lower before heading for the 17750 target. So a short here ‘with nimble fingers’ makes sense.

REPLY 85. pulptrader says: April 8, 2016 at 5:14 pm US30.http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/ucgbn. I just thought id post this as it has some bonny colours on it. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 8, 2016 at 7:02 pm Blimey!! pulptrader, what have you been ‘smok’n’? Reminds me of those 60’s spiral glasses which made everything look ‘MULTI’ dimensional….with a headache to boot if you stared through them for more than 10 minutes. REPLY 2. Peter_ says: April 9, 2016 at 3:10 pm I saw one of those whilst diving

REPLY 86. purvez says: April 8, 2016 at 7:13 pm The DJIA just touched 17540, which is a lot lower than I was expecting from when I wrote at 17666. Of course the market never does ‘EXACTLY’ as I say….BUT at this point it is VERY TEMPTING to take a long position, with a stop around 17515, with an eventual target of 17750+. Just to be clear….it’s too late in the evening for me to take ANY trade. I’ll evaluate on Sunday night when the market’s re-open.

REPLY 87. purvez says: April 8, 2016 at 7:17 pm My ability to include ‘apostrophes’ in the wrong places seems to have increased!! Sorry Miss Cooper….:-(( ….(my English Teacher)

REPLY 88. Pulp says: April 9, 2016 at 12:30 pm https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/04/09/weekend-update-547 : useful information: “Just look at the weekly chart. While looking you may note that volume, which we rarely even look at, has been declining throughout this entire uptrend. During the bull market, uptrends after steep selloffs have displayed at least steady even volume.” REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 9, 2016 at 3:14 pm Futures close out end of next week, that event should be the end of this manic phase, if not before. I accumulate things like gold miners and index shorts.

REPLY 89. Peter_ says: April 9, 2016 at 5:46 pm Now this page is about as overextended as the markets. And we have no sign of our host since his last post here on Feb 16th. I worry for him. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 11, 2016 at 8:59 am Peter_ I agree, John H’s absence this long is a bit worrying. He has an email address somewhere on this site. I wonder if he’ll respond to that?

REPLY 90. Bill says: April 10, 2016 at 12:54 am valley, can you update the pals system. dont like stormchaser site. REPLY 1. valley says: April 11, 2016 at 8:52 pm Hi Bill, I am over at Peter Temple’s Cycles site which has an active astro trading blog/EW blog/cycles. PALS suggests: This week will touch 2000 or lower. Next week will touch 2100 or higher. So when it touches 2000 buy, and when it touches 2100 next week sell. 5%. In one week. REPLY 1. Krish says: April 12, 2016 at 7:32 am Thanks valley. I will follow this trade plan as it closely matches my own. Getting down to 2000 is the hard bit though. Will wait patiently.

REPLY 91. Krish says: April 11, 2016 at 8:20 am Pump pump pump. Central banks at it again this morning. Drop followed by inexplicable explosion higher.Think this proves clearly that central banks have huge control over the market. Good luck to those expecting a market crash as it wont be allowed to happen at the moment. It will happen one day…just not in the near future.

REPLY 92. Specie says: April 12, 2016 at 5:01 pm I hope Alan is having as much fun in the miners as i am. My posts here have only been about 3 things – gold going much much higher, biotechs going much much lower and stupid ideas about a overall market crash based on puetz crash windows. Well 2 outta 3 ain’t bad. REPLY 1. Krish says: April 13, 2016 at 6:58 am The Bears are setting up for massive disappointment in 2016. The market ascent is going well. Anyone thinking markets will crash in the next few months is nuts. REPLY 2. purvez says: April 13, 2016 at 9:06 am Specie, good to know you are having fun. Are you a buy and hold type person or do you actively trade in and out of the market? Gold at the moment seems a bit extended and am wondering whether you’ll trade that or is it just ‘noise’ to you? REPLY 1. Specie says: April 13, 2016 at 1:31 pm Hi Purvez, thanks for the question and also thanks for your part in keeping this site alive. I am a long term holder of gold and gold stocks. i began in 2000 and up till 2007 i had 17 miners that were taken over. sold half my gold position when gold reached 1050. didn’t buy any on the drop to 750 and rode them up to 1920 and down to 1050 again. added some new ones in 2014 and 2015. thats all i own and thats all i will ever own except for a few forays into shorting stocks when i think conditions are right. that shorting hasn’t worked well. Really interesting to see stock bull cheerleading to the extent its shown here.

REPLY 93. Krish says: April 13, 2016 at 9:26 am Have closed 50% of dow longs. Will close the rest near 18k and wait for the next signal (which will probably be a sell). REPLY 1. John Li says: April 13, 2016 at 1:56 pm Congrats Krish. Finally getting it right. What is the profit on the trade?

REPLY 94. GM says: April 13, 2016 at 11:36 am Well played on your long profits krish. Well played specie on the gold miners and gold, with you there. Less well played me, should have been more patient with ftse shorts, but it’s now at a key fib level, I’ll give it a little leeway.I think the end is nigh for risk assets this week. Posting will be infrequent from me this next 11 days, back in Morocco. +7 in my first round of golf for a month, happy with that. REPLY 1. John Li says: April 13, 2016 at 12:34 pm A stop is a stop GM… REPLY 1. GM says: April 13, 2016 at 8:48 pm Except when it’s not JL! REPLY 2. Krish says: April 13, 2016 at 2:29 pm I’d be very worried holding long term shorts at the moment. This solar cycle has been an epic failure at predicting a stock market crash. John analysis, as good as it was has proven useless in this central bank controlled environment. Secondly the fabricated data out of China holds 100% credibility to the investment world so China can quite easily fabricate a global bull market. Until these two fundamental tailwinds change the chance of a bear market has as good a chance of happening as Yellen winning gold in the 100m Olympic final. Good luck to the bears…you are gonna need every ounce of it. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 13, 2016 at 7:00 pm OK a 25% average market drop during next 3 to 4 months, agree, no need to shout. REPLY 3. purvez says: April 13, 2016 at 4:27 pm GM good to know you are enjoying your time in Morocco. Do you go to different hotels or just the same place? My better half and I went once with our, then, 6 year old son to Tunisia (somewhere on the coast) and because of my Pakistani background they detained us for over 4 hours at the airport before finally letting us go. Now she won’t go anywhere near North Africa. I do however love the culture and food there. REPLY 1. GM says: April 13, 2016 at 8:59 pm Same place purvez, I use an apartment, very nice, by the marina in Agadir, pools for residents, very cheap as I’m a regular. Beat a Moroccan guy 8&7 today, gave him 4 shots, he was a tad erratic, me very steady. Celebrating my 49th birthday tomorrow, not that birthdays mean a lot to me. Seven is my lucky number, so 7×7 this year…..who knows what may happen? Krish, don’t get carried away by a rally on little volume, and still not back to the highs. Look back a year, see where prices are today. Flat. And please, forget the myth that central banks control anything. The only way they prolong a bull is the way they don’t want….full scale currency crises. May well happen, but real returns will be abysmal. I’m with specie, gold and its miners due an epic 20 years as everything collapses. Was talking to my Morrocan friend today about buying a farm out here in 4-6 years, food supply likely to be important as supplies dry up into the mini ice-age. Jeez, the future is so grim. Enjoy every day eh. Good luck to bears, nearly there. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 14, 2016 at 8:21 am Happy Birthday GM, you ‘spring chicken’. Hope you have a really lucky year….or since the year just gone was the 49th then I hope you DID have a lucky year. In any case ‘Enjoy every day’ is a good motto. 2. GM says: April 14, 2016 at 7:54 pm Thanks Purvez. There is only today.

95. Krish says: April 13, 2016 at 7:44 pm Rest of DOW longs closed. Don’t want to get too greedy. Peter I doubt we will get a 25% drop in the market from this level…but if we do it will be the buying opportunity of the year. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 14, 2016 at 6:28 pm Every bear has a bounce.CB interventionism appears to make the bounces appear bullish. You should forgive yourself for getting it wrong. Unadulterated wave analysis conducted in an anechoic chamber within a Faraday cage has the power to guide the more broadly experienced. The average 25% projection is not the end of this bear, that is still next year. REPLY 1. John Li says: April 15, 2016 at 3:49 am Is the crash this year or next year or never? REPLY 2. Krish says: April 15, 2016 at 2:54 pm Ok Peter lets see if we get an average 25% decline in the next 3-4 months as you say. We can set the 1st of August as the end of this time frame. For your predictions I am expecting the DAX to average 7500 between now and then. The DOW to average 13,500 and the FTSE to average 4775. This would be the average 25% decline you talk about. Now my predictions for the same indices are below: DAX: 9500 (average decline 5%) FTSE: 6100 (average decline 4%) DOW: 17000 (average decline 5.5%) This is based on there being another significant market correction in this period but with a full recovery afterwards. Good luck Peter but to me your prediction looks utterly bonkers. It would require the market to spend significant time far below those 25% decline numbers to get the average that low!! REPLY 1. John Li says: April 15, 2016 at 6:53 pm I don’t think he is talking about average prices, but that the average of his forecasts is for -25%…but honestly, I am just very confused. I have covered all my shorts and have given up completely, but as I said to GM, a stop is a stop, and I am up MTD/YTD and so pretty happy anyway. It is hard enough to call for -25% drop, and it amazes me that one can forecast a -25% drop, then I guess +33% rise to new highs, then a crash in 2017? That takes real skill which I clearly do not have.

96. Krish says: April 14, 2016 at 1:36 pm 45 points from S&P ATH. Hope John is in good health. Would love to know his opinion of the recent market action and how it affects his models. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 14, 2016 at 7:51 pm When we all become too otherwise engaged with ourselves we should listen to our conscience and dispossess ourselves of all imposed/adopted brain shackles. The concept of a collective conscience is non-religious. We all come from the 10^-10^-infinity chance of such life flourish in the Universe and we will all return to it. That’s physical as well as metaphysical. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 14, 2016 at 8:22 pm PS: Its just one of many to come opportunities to buy gold. You can keep it or sell it asap. It will just continue to be the most complex element in the Universe and do its job as such.

REPLY 97. Pulp says: April 15, 2016 at 9:25 pm What are your opinions on the ever uber doom ponzi website? http://ponziworld.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/the-fed-put-is-wall-street-fantasy.html?m=1 REPLY 1. GM says: April 16, 2016 at 11:11 am It seems less sophisticated than ZH, and that’s saying something. Pleased to see the Ftse back below the fibs I have as stops. All eyes on Doha, but there’ll be no deal, so watch out next week. REPLY 1. Krish says: April 17, 2016 at 9:34 am well looks like there is a deal so expect oil to explode higher overnight. FTSE could hit 6450-6500 very easily now but should decline after that as oil will ultimately head down!I hope shale oil takes the opportunity to hedge for the next few years and go for maximum production to severely damage the control/finances of OPEC. The FTSE was a magnificent buy at 5500 but easy to say in hindsight. REPLY 1. GM says: April 17, 2016 at 11:18 am Krish is in the Middle East I believe, and has persuaded the Iranian government that they too must freeze production. Stunning diplomacy. In the real world, Iran will keep increasing its market share, and everyone else will continue to pump as much as they can. OPEC is a dead duck, as the Saudis have changed their policy to full production for as long as the oil exists. Freezing at January 2016 levels still leaves a huge glut anyway. A sell the news event if ever there was one, in my opinion. 2. Krish says: April 17, 2016 at 7:42 pm I’m so sorry! The Iranians didn’t listen to me. No deal! I fully agree GM. Iran has no benefit in freezing production. They should continue to pump as much as they can. Only when Saudi get rid of the stubbornness will there be any sort of balance. I thought there would be an agreement without Iran but was proven wrong today. I would expect this to create headwinds for the markets but oil alone certainly WILL NOT create a bear market. Yellen lies waiting to fire more bullets from her near infinite arsenal if need be. 3. GM says: April 17, 2016 at 8:15 pm You do know that most of the Middle East can produce oil for under $10 a barrel? The only beneficiary of high oil prices has been the US. Wars and financial shenanigans have been used to this end. Next up BS redacted 9/11 pages, the Empire of Chaos will stop at nothing. Your faith in Yellen is touching and common-place. But entirely misguided as events will show. Nick used to say the same I recall. 4. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 7:35 am Of course Yellen and her phonies will ultimately fail. The trillion dollar question is timing. If she fails in 2018 we have 2 years worth of bull market left. If she fails next month then we fall heavily very soon. Everyone thinks she is going to fail next month and usually the majority are wrong. I think she still holds huge power in the market at least until later this year. All big falls will be subject to 100% retraces until then. GL with your trading. 5. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 7:39 am I mean we had a nice drop in the morning as oil fell but since then PUMP PUMP PUMP PUMPETY PUMP. Most likely it was central banks panic buying futures to stop a heavy decline. So far…fantastic success! If earnings season goes better than expected BANNNNGGG…probably a 5% rise in indices on the way. Carry on shorting if you want though…I need the bears to get burnt to fill my pockets will lots of cash. 2. Specie says: April 16, 2016 at 12:53 pm I love Ponzi World Blog. Mac10 does a great job. some may feel it’s a little over the top but i find it very helpful. He uses simple charts and draws his own conclusions. You may not agree with his conclusions but you can’t argue with his charts. i tend to agree with 99% of what he presents – i only defer on the timing

REPLY 98. Peter_ says: April 17, 2016 at 6:24 pm I don’t want to spoil the… neversaybearbull+contrian+disillusioned+nowZHalsodoubts+Iwasonceabearbut+neverlandisreal ifyouknowwhatImean etc. But…. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 17, 2016 at 6:33 pm If C equals some or other multiple of A then how many times have we all been here before?

REPLY 99. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 10:41 am So Doha was meant to be the start of the next leg down.The actual result was a non-event. All indices showing full recoveries of the drop this morning. Hope you managed to cut your FTSE positions GM. Oil only down $1. So much for the “we are gonna crash into 30’s”. Sentiment remains bullish everywhere for the moment. Market headwinds quickly disappearing…watch out above. Good news for all the bears on the sidelines…you’ll be able to short from much higher levels…just be patient for now. REPLY 1. GM says: April 18, 2016 at 4:40 pm The Ftse is not finding much of a bid today, lower than it was on Friday, the big fib is holding it at present. The clock is ticking for the bulls, the top is likely this week or next.

REPLY 00. Jegersmart says: April 18, 2016 at 11:50 am Sentiment driven stuff – by the “experienced” traders of today who were still in university pre-2008/2009 and don’t know anything beyond the “sentiment” trade. Watch Iran, who have increased their production by around half a mill barrels in the last 6 weeks alone. I am happy that you got at least one trade right for this last 12 month period Krish, but seriously one cannot judge the reaction from something like this even before the Yanks wake up. I don’t have a position in oil atm, too volatile and better opportunities out there in my opinion. Lots of financials bullish oil at least publicly, wonder if these guys are ramping and buying puts. They have muscle, and haven’t seen signs of the huge USO long positions entered several weeks being sold off – unless they are iceberging…. Good luck as always to all. J REPLY 1. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 12:29 pm Lets see what happens next in markets. I’ve talked enough so need to see how things play out to see who was right or wrong.

REPLY 01. Peter_ says: April 18, 2016 at 1:07 pm CB tapdance can sustain to infinity by just ignoring the debt Why not ignore all debt, not just the sovereign stuff Oh yes, that would make the banksters bankrupt and they own the planet already Not the sovereign stuff, that crap been put on the back of the muppets Mmmm Iceland did it and it worked, but look what the bankster cops did to their PM Seeds of (begins with D) REPLY 1. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 2:02 pm Hehehehe. What did i say….

REPLY 02. purvez says: April 18, 2016 at 2:42 pm Today’s actions since the open…on the DJIA…reminds me of a ‘blow off top’. So if it turns down in a ‘big’ way today then I think we are done with this wave. Unless of course Krish tells me that there is an agreement with Iran…..then all bets are off. REPLY 1. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 3:21 pm Might be a blow off top. I’m pretty happy with the longs i loaded up on this morning. Stop losses to break even so maybe i’ll walk away with zero at worst. A shame I didn’t buy oil but to be honest I don’t understand the recovery today. Oil should be trading much lower! REPLY 2. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 3:31 pm The DAX is the one im really interested in. A breakout here suggest huge upside due to the “fake” chinese data providing heavy support. Gone with a short on oil but have bought some call options at $45 in case the panic buying boosts prices even higher.

REPLY 03. Barry says: April 18, 2016 at 4:13 pm Just for follow-up purposes, I have an additional 50% add to my system short today, hit at 2088 SPX.. That is, add an additional 50% short to the initial system short of 50% taken three weeks ago at 2037.05. System trade is 100% short as of today’s close… I am currently much more short than that, so…….. Yayyyyyyyyyy ME!! Taken a lot of pain lately, but there we have it…. Theoretically, we could flip back to a buy signal at any time, which would mean a “Cover All Shorts, and go 50% Long” signal, but we haven’t so far… Watching closely for that… Otherwise, carry on… REPLY 1. John Li says: April 18, 2016 at 4:36 pm As I said, a stop is a stop for me…but GL to you. Will your system flip at new ATH, or is it more like a flip if it dips? REPLY 1. barrybrewer says: April 18, 2016 at 6:29 pm It could flip at either one…. Or not…. REPLY 2. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 5:37 pm It astounds me you are so short at this point. even if you are correct is it not better to wait for a drop followed by a 62% retrace at which point to short? It would provide more confirmation of a top rather than guessing where this rally will end? I mean if you are right the profits will be larger than waiting for a confirmation but the risk is also significant.

REPLY 04. Pulp says: April 18, 2016 at 8:03 pm Dow closing on exactly 18k on 18/4/16 takes some serious planning.

REPLY 05. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 8:26 pm The God of stocks speaks again…. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/18/tom-lee-sp-could-be-up-double-digits-this-year.html

REPLY 06. Krish says: April 18, 2016 at 8:41 pm http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/18/tom-lee-sp-could-be-up-double-digits-this-year.html The God of stocks speaks again…

REPLY 07. valley says: April 19, 2016 at 2:23 am Calling all Solarcycles.net posters, join me and several others from this blog at worldcyclesinstitute.com. Some really interesting posts there recently. REPLY 1. GM says: April 19, 2016 at 10:49 am Sad to see valley attempting to kill this blog in Johns absence. Well, I’ll be staying put, I’m happy to talk to myself if need be. Disappointing though valley. American ways. REPLY 1. Bill says: April 19, 2016 at 3:46 pm I am there, will be back when John feels and starts posting. Best wishes to Johns speedy recovery. REPLY 1. GM says: April 20, 2016 at 10:24 am Bill, you’re just a valley fan-boy. Off you go then. 2. Gary says: April 22, 2016 at 11:33 am You are a real piece of work, BM. REPLY 1. valley says: April 26, 2016 at 1:27 am GM, there is an advantage to posting on a site that is active and that has a skilled moderator such as our Canadian host, Peter Temple.

08. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 7:24 am GM are you out of your FTSE shorts yet? You have to admit the shorts were timed very poorly. REPLY 1. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 7:43 am I have just started building short positions in the FTSE with 6398 as the first entry point. Will build on further rises if they happen as I believe this rally needs a retrace before possibly continuing higher. Not touching the DAX as sentiment is fantastic there and 11k come come in a blink of an eye if the bullishness continues. However, a sharp drop is also on the cards if sentiment turns so too volatile for me. DOW breaking 18k is a massive deal but I favour a retrace before hitting new ATH’s maybe this month. Even Tom Lee might get this wrong as he predicted new ATH’s by end of May. He was not bullish enough! REPLY 2. GM says: April 19, 2016 at 10:55 am Very poorly? No, that would have been shorting down at 5500. I’m within 3.5% of the current price, entirely acceptable for me on a swing trade. Pleased to see you joining me, I think.

REPLY 09. Jegersmart says: April 19, 2016 at 8:02 am Krish I don’t know who this Tom Lee is, but the current PE ratio on S&P500 is 24.2 as of yesterday…….so either he is a moron or CNBC are morons or probably both – at least according to my theory that 90% of people are morons……. When you quote him (or anything/anyone else) on here, do you not look into the (mis)information that is proffered? That is not to say that the SPX cannot go to 30 or 40 PE, but suggest we should at least have some “facts” in the mix…… /facepalm J p.s. Bonus information for you, Nasdaq is at around 22.5 PE as of Friday 15th…… REPLY 1. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 9:04 am He mentions forward P/E which is as this link shows well below 25. https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_pe_ratio_forward_estimate REPLY 2. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 9:22 am Of course its a forward p/e and it could be wrong as its a prediction so I see what you are saying too. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: April 19, 2016 at 10:01 am Well he mentions 15 no? So what did he do? Predict the forward PE to beyond that chart you posted whilst still maintaining that this year will be up “double digits”? The problem with that as I am sure you know is that the price affects the P part as much as the E does on the E part……..so will price remain the same and earnings will increase 50%? Not fukin likely…..will earnings come down and price go up…….probably not in the long term……so maybe what happens is that the price goes down 40% whilst earnings flatten out…..and so the PE *ratio* reverts to the mean of say 15 ish……timeline? Not possible to say ofc….. The point I made is that unless the media outlet is misquoting him, there seems to be only limited understanding of how a simple ration works……. I asked a guy the other day why he was buying stocks, just out of interest. He said it was because he couldn’t get more than 2% in safe bonds, maybe 3-4% in “high risk stuff”. I asked hiim what the current yield was on S&P 500 as a whole. He said “oh, around 3.7-3.8%”. The current yield is just over 2%…….. J REPLY 1. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 1:52 pm I guess that’s fair enough. If earnings dont explode higher as you said stocks will be at best flat and more likely lower. Oil will be a factor too I think. Once Kuwait is back online at normal levels oil should drop heavily. If it doesnt then there is no need for a production freeze as everyone apart from Saudi is going max. production and the price is staying strong. However, a 40% drop in my eyes is absurd unless you are looking at a multi-year time frame and a collapse in forward earnings expectations. I hope i’m wrong and you are correct though…its better to have a 40% drop now and return valuations to normal rather than another ramp higher only to setup a larger fall in future which would be more damaging. At moment everything is exploding. Indices, gold, oil etc. all blowing up which may suggest a blow off top but lets see.

10. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 8:12 am This is the mega capitulation of the bears Tom Lee was talking about. Shame John H isn’t around but hope he is well and I hope he keeps this site alive as it contains a lot of useful and sound information that will one day (ie. when central bankers/their current policies are extinct) help us predict stock market cycles. REPLY 1. GM says: April 19, 2016 at 11:00 am So when all bears capitulate what do you have? A top I reckon. It’s great to see someone get so excited over a pretty standard bull market topping process, which always includes healthy rallies.

REPLY 11. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 9:41 am When news like this http://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/german-zew-economic-sentiment-improves-in-april,-beating-expectations-396354 sends the DAX soaring 2% what chance in hell do bears have?

REPLY 12. pulptrader says: April 19, 2016 at 11:02 am I believe here is a “.886gap5” which Slater9 had previously made us aware of: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/Msdbn which signalled the start of the DAX push upwards, using the Doha dip as the calibration.

REPLY 13. Jegersmart says: April 19, 2016 at 11:41 am They turn into bulls until it is time to be a bear?:D REPLY 1. pulp says: April 19, 2016 at 2:15 pm I kept some of my shorts, but i’ve I had to go long to cover these. Dax: Hit the top blue line next? http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/00xbn REPLY 1. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 2:42 pm Nice chart. Yes it would be ideal for a touch of the blue line before a big drop. No shorting the DAX just yet then!! REPLY 2. Krish says: April 19, 2016 at 2:22 pm FTSE short stopped at B/E. Stupid trade on my part tbh.

REPLY 14. Phil White says: April 19, 2016 at 3:26 pm The GAAP Vs Non-GAPP differential is approx 26% currently, so forward PE’s may be a tad more generous than at first glance. On the flip side you have a huge need with yield in the context of ZIRP and now NIRP. So where does that leave us, a topping process? – I thought markets had topped early Summer 2015, today is perhaps the first day that I am beginning to doubt that. Some divergence in the DJT and RUT if you looking for lower levels and need something to cling on to. Tom Lee makes some astute calls, then again I remember his 2008 year end SPX target, it turned out a little differently.

REPLY 15. scott says: April 19, 2016 at 6:07 pm here is all you need to know about central banks and this market. they will pull the rug when they want to and not a moment before http://www.metatech.org/wp/conspiracy/sinking-thetitanic-create-federal-reserve-bank/ considering less than 1% own 50% of all stock/bond positions, they move it back up when they want to as well

REPLY 16. purvez says: April 20, 2016 at 8:10 am The bottom chart here: http://spiralcalendar.com/2016/04/is-it-may-yet/#more-10088 shows the Dow diverging quite significantly from a Solar/Lunar trend line which it had been following fairly accurately. Does anyone here have any thoughts or understanding on why this would have happened or even what it means? Thx in advance. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: April 20, 2016 at 10:07 am Interesting chart, it kind of reminds me of the relationship between GLD and GDX, sometimes in sync, sometimes inverted, sometimes totally out of whack. I.E. I would put limited faith in it, but potentially useful at times…. The only explanation I can offer is that there is no system or pattern that I know of that is even close to excellent (let alone perfect), however much we want them to be….:) imho J REPLY 1. purvez says: April 20, 2016 at 12:19 pm Thx Jeger, I was hoping for a more ‘technical’ explanation. Something along the lines that Solar flares had decreased/increased or the magnetosphere had wobbled.

REPLY 17. Krish says: April 20, 2016 at 11:30 am Just look at the DAX fly! I’m long from the drop this morning with a target of 10800 in the coming weeks.

REPLY 18. Jegersmart says: April 20, 2016 at 2:21 pm Wow Krish, 0.2% up….and you were lucky to get in at the low as well……:D J REPLY 1. Krish says: April 20, 2016 at 3:18 pm 1% up actually so far and its continuing to pump pump pump higher. Yeeehaaa. Oil is off to the moon. No-one cares about the glut now it seems. REPLY 2. Krish says: April 20, 2016 at 3:39 pm Do you feel the immense power of the bulls Jeger? Does it make the ground under your feet tremble? Probably not but my DAX stop is now at B/E + 10 points so I think my trade was very successful. Thanks for your 0.2% comment anyway. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: April 21, 2016 at 8:33 am Congratulations Krish – well done! My 0.2% comment was based on the price at the time, I am happy that it came good for you. I am a bull and bear at the same time trading a long/short portfolio so any movement is nice as long as I am on the right side ofc…… J

REPLY 19. alphahorn says: April 20, 2016 at 2:25 pm the SPY and DIA made new all time highs yesterday confirming my wave count. My subscribers are having a great year riding the long trade for equities, precious metals and miners. REPLY 1. Krish says: April 20, 2016 at 5:33 pm Where do you see wave 5 ending Alpha? REPLY 1. alphahorn says: April 21, 2016 at 2:06 pm 2170 to 2200 REPLY 2. Jegersmart says: April 21, 2016 at 8:41 am Alpha, hopefully your subscribers will forgive you for the mistake of calling yesterday’s action in SPY as achieving a new “ATH”…..?:D Some divergences building up on SPY, it will be interesting to see where we go from here but seems almost unavoidable that we get real new ATH’s quite soon….. Good luck. J REPLY 1. alphahorn says: April 21, 2016 at 2:05 pm SPY and DIA both made new highs when adjusted for dividends and splits, it was not a mistake

REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: April 22, 2016 at 2:59 pm I am not sure what you mean Alpha, but basically what you are saying is that these indices have made new ALL TIME HIGHS, if not in outright terms (clearly) but in an adjusted way? If so, I haven’t really heard of this before in terms of trading. Presumably that also means that it is possible that an index could make a new low (on the chart) but really it hasn’t due to adjustments for divi and splits? Or even Fib levels would also need to be adjusted as to where they might be if one adjusted for divi and splits of the underlying instrument being measured? I think this would confuse my brain, so is there an easy way to make this adjustment you speak of for all the thousands of instruments I scan every week to see if this has any merit? Alternatively, you may have meant “new highs” instead of “new ATH’s”? Cheers J 2. alphahorn says: April 25, 2016 at 1:57 am just look at the chart above, what do you see for the SPY and DIA, check out Cobra’s post 4/22/16.

REPLY 20. Krish says: April 21, 2016 at 5:48 am Closed 50% of Dax long with just over 200 pips profit. Fantastic trade so far. Hope some others got it too. The chart has a clear target of 10800 so will hold the rest until there.

REPLY 21. purvez says: April 21, 2016 at 12:33 pm I’m seeing this on the 5min chart of the DJIA at roughly the time of this post. So it certainly doesn’t look like we are done climbing. http://postimg.org/image/p9jjn6393/ REPLY 1. purvez says: April 21, 2016 at 2:30 pm Hmmm, a wedge that didn’t recover. That is indeed rare.

REPLY 22. Krish says: April 21, 2016 at 12:53 pm WOOOOOWWWWW the market is down today. Wasn’t sure that was allowed. Lets see if the stock pumping machines can regain their momentum….otherwise Yellen and co. will have to step in again. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 21, 2016 at 5:28 pm And now that something like never before has actually been created for real, what now? http://tinyurl.com/jcj6hkw Sure, lay back and drink that pinacolada or whatever Sure as *hit and run… REPLY 1. purvez says: April 21, 2016 at 6:39 pm Very nice indeed Peter_. Thx for the chuckle. Hope it’s SLOOOOOW drying paint. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 21, 2016 at 7:40 pm The WORST bit is that they ALL look so SMUG with their accomplishments. 2. GM says: April 21, 2016 at 9:37 pm To be fair to Draghi, his one mandate is price stability, and he’s delivered that very consistently. He can afford to look smug as he has his red button at the ready ( the gold bid QE). The others will not be so lucky, as they’re forced into fiscal QE. The helicopter blades are stirring. Blame the politicians though, not the central bankers. Ultimately blame your fellow voters, Marxists to a man and woman, just not realising it. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 22, 2016 at 9:01 pm Ah to marxist to marxist to buy a fat …mmm Kind and Onerable Sir please help me,I’m just a poor marxist with 15 hungry children Go away you pesky critter, go next door before I call my personal law enforcement 2. GM says: April 23, 2016 at 11:22 am The Uk tax take is already around 30% of income on average. I’m all for some tax and some help for those in genuine need. I’d like to remove the big leech in the middle of the payer and the receiver though. All those non-jobs and all that waste, and all those wars and deaths. All because of govt. Meanwhile, is the top now in? I see you’ve admitted TA defeat? You should share your charts here.

23. Krish says: April 22, 2016 at 2:21 pm Still holding long for now. Peter Temple still expects a final burst up too. I’ve loaded up on a Dow long for the final attack. Then time to short…

REPLY 24. Jegersmart says: April 22, 2016 at 2:53 pm Ah….the Peter Temple indicator…..haha….. Do you ever do your own analysis and make own deicsions or is the strategy purely based on guys on the internet?:D J REPLY 1. John Li says: April 22, 2016 at 3:20 pm Jeger what is your current positioning? You were right 2/2016 about the rally to 200SMA, but now it continues to amaze… REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: April 25, 2016 at 3:56 pm Hey John Hope you are well buddy, sorry I missed this. At the moment, I am long a few US and UK stocks, short MIB (Italian), short a couple of airlines, short MDY, short FAS and of course I still hold my underwater GLD/GDX shorts……I did get out of my remaining ill-timed Glencore short last week at around 133 – but that was a 2.4% loss overall but considering I went almost 30% (on that position) offside due to a missed stop due to travel, I guess I should be happy with that……. I have no positions in commodities right now, and nothing relating to US indices (directly) per se except MDY. My current view is that whilst the market is churning and not really going anywhere, I will trade a bit long and short and keep it relatively light for the time being. I am considering going long FXI for a longer term swing trade as it has broken out of downtrend, but think it needs a retest/pullback so am watching and waiting. What are you seeing atm? J REPLY 1. John Li says: April 26, 2016 at 4:06 am Thanks for this…I very much respect your view, and you certainly made money over the years. I have been mega bearish for the past year. Strangely though, I was up pretty much every month in the last 6 months, perhaps due to luck and perhaps do to stops. I am at a loss as to why Hampson’s crash has not happened yet. The solar max was supposed to be 2012, and then it got delayed to 2014 — ok, it is a weather and the forecast was wrong. But then we got new solar swing lows in 2015 and no crash. 4/2016 would be a new solar low (ISN=35 or so) since the peak (ISN=146). I had thought the market peak would already have been in, given the big drop in solar. Granted, the new highs are in SPY and past analysis on the Dow did not include dividend adjustments. The SPX is still below ATH. I think I am the few persons left talking about the solar maximum in “solarcycles.net”…how far we have given up. I don’t currently have much of a position. At this point, I am pretty happy to wait to be one month late into the crash. I don’t think a 1987 or 1929 flash crash will occur, but it is that crazy fear that keeps everyone max short while SPY is above any moving average you can come up with. Even in 1987 or 1929, moving averages can work. My only position is short ASHR. It is costly to borrow at 10%, but it is trading at 30% premium A shares to H shares, not to say anything about the poor balance sheet quality. I guess I could hedge by going long FXI. It is a small position, so I am totally fine if China wants to buy and double Shanghai — just crash in 3 years please. After that, it will be the next solar cycle. 2. Krish says: April 22, 2016 at 3:47 pm I haven’t read what Peter temple expects after this top but I expect a pullback 5-8% and then another rally which will blast us to new highs. 2250 S&P is a reasonable year end target for me. I fully expect no bear market. Most blogs I read are bearish so I don’t just follow the Internet. Greedometer came out with another prediction of 60-70% decline about a year from now. Completely ridiculous considering the huge pile of ammo still available to central banks. Once the ammo is out markets will collapse big time. Until then I buy the dips and I hope there are many of them! Also nothing wrong with following guys on the internet if it makes you money…just need to pick the ones not to follow and do the opposite. REPLY 1. GM says: April 22, 2016 at 10:18 pm In your mind, the CBs have some ammo, in a pile, and one day it will be exhausted? Not literal ammo, I realise that would be very dangerous. But metaphorical ammo. I’m wondering what this ammo is, and why you think it will be exhausted one day? Only. because they didn’t seem to be bothered about using it when the 2008-09 crash happened, although they did ease and say soothing words all the way down. Big shout out to Freddie, I’m sure we’re all grateful for his continued contributions to the blog.

REPLY 25. purvez says: April 25, 2016 at 2:01 pm Here’s a piece that I read today which I felt deserved a wider audience. http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon-theory/my-passion-is-puppetry/ The author has a nice writing style and has an interesting take on the ‘Central Bank’ led financial industry. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 25, 2016 at 5:56 pm OK style but the CNBC influence not. Think mega leverage Fed agents inside trading total control. Think bankster megacrooks muppet puppets to everything and everyone else. Think self preservation go along optionless. Don’t worry be happy or else. REPLY 1. purvez says: April 25, 2016 at 7:13 pm Hehehe!! Peter_ you are commenting on writing style? The rest of your prose (the bits that I can decipher) I agree with as does the guy who wrote the piece, I believe. Just can’t stop chuckling at you having an opinion on ‘writing style’.

REPLY 26. Richard Isaacson says: April 25, 2016 at 7:50 pm Early cycle tops imply weakness. I am selling before May and going away. I hope you get better John. Bye.

REPLY 27. GM says: April 25, 2016 at 8:18 pm So….everyone out there has been duped by (what looks like) a bear market rally. Talk of bubbles, blow-off tops, fear of market responses to CB moves. Even a return to c.1800 is now considered impossible by some. Bulls are loving it, once again lulled to a cozy sleep. It’s different this time everyone cries, the CBs will buy it all, it can never fall far. Even Peggy & Scott’s guy has shut up shop, along with all the other cycles guys. It’s perfect. All of the above BS makes me think a hard fast deep dip lies directly ahead, at least to 1800, maybe lower. I’m 160 ftse points in the red, waiting patiently. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: April 26, 2016 at 12:49 am I am cutting back on my posting. Crude has completed an upward corrective Elliot “5 of C of C” (a 5 wave ending Diagonal Triangle) and is set up to break to new lows. If so, then not only will energy stocks sell off but a liquidity crisis is likely to happen which will cause a major decline in all stocks as almost all major stock declines were preceded/caused by liquidity drying up. REPLY 1. GM says: April 26, 2016 at 11:01 am Noticed you’d been very quiet Richard. Hope you still post occasionally though. At tis point I agree with you, the rally in *risk* is looking mature, and things will get very tight during the summer. I expect some first signs of banking issues, maybe failures, over in Europe.

REPLY 28. Jegersmart says: April 26, 2016 at 12:10 pm Notice I am short FAS. That is an insurance policy of sorts – I will probably only take that off if Crude regains the 60-70 range…..vimho. J

REPLY 29. GM says: April 26, 2016 at 3:34 pm John Li, I also look at the sunspots every couple of weeks, and scratch my head. My feeling is that humanity has its collective head in the sand at the moment, about all of the things JH has highlighted, and a lot more besides. But I expect the solar influence to win the day, and it feels like a rubber band being stretched whilst markets stay up. The snap back I expect will be violent and shocking (to most). FUBAR our world is.

REPLY 30. Richard Isaacson says: April 26, 2016 at 3:55 pm If I recall correctly there is a Geomagnetic reason for stocks to top in May and sell off for the summer to the next Geomagnetic event in the fall. There may also be in “inverted” Full Moon reason in that this past Full Moon produced a high turn instead of the usual low turn. I am looking for Stocks and Crude to top and head lower (crash) for the summer. I am also looking for the potential of a super rally in Rough Rice futures like what happened two Delta Long Term Rotations ago (eight years) and, additionally, for Grain rallies this northern hemisphere summer as El Nino transitions into La Nina. There is growing drought in northern Brazil which is impacting their second Corn crop; and, La Nina’s produce drought in the USA Corn belt (a potential one-two knockout punch to Corn this year).

REPLY 31. Richard Isaacson says: April 26, 2016 at 4:19 pm I hold today’s rally in Crude to be the 5th wave of a “C or C” corrective rally that will end and break to new lows. I hold the rally in Crude from January to now to be corrective. Elliot corrective rallies are often contained in Channels. If fact, when rallies are confined to channels it is a warning that it is deceptively a corrective rally that will surprise and break lower and not an impulse rally to greater heights. I hold the rally in Crude to be “deceptive” because it is contained in a Channel and I expect it to surprise to the downside by taking stocks down with it. I think that it is a very dangerous time to be long stocks. REPLY 1. Krish says: April 26, 2016 at 4:25 pm Do you have downside targets? Crude is being manipulated higher to keep stocks from falling..ideal opportunity for Saudi to increase production by 2 million barrels as they will get $45 regardless of level of oversupply at this rate. I am now short the DOW at 18020 trying to figure out at what price level the FED will reflate stocks again leading to the next power rally. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: April 26, 2016 at 4:42 pm In Elliot corrections Diagonal Triangles only occur at the very end of the corrections. The rally in Crude from March 5 appears as a Rising Wedge or Diagonal Triangle and is totally contained in a rising Channel (5th of c of C). This is a –double warning– that the rally from January is Corrective and will end with prices breaking impulsively below the January lows. If so, then Stocks could sell off hard for many reasons including a liquidity crunch/crisis. Throw in Geomagnetism and Sun Spots and I think that it is very dangerous to be long stocks at this time. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: April 26, 2016 at 4:47 pm My mistake; April 5. I would like to see JH start a new article/report as this one is long in the tooth. 2. Peter_ says: April 26, 2016 at 5:46 pm I see an end of trend in crude accompanied by extraordinary volume and levered by a massive divergence. The weekly picture shows the creation of a topside divergent pull taking the reigns from the massive bottom-side push. The weekly RSI has regained the +50 territory as price meets mega resistance. This is not a side show, it is a gigantic power play of a trend changer. 2. Chien-Jen says: April 26, 2016 at 4:42 pm You have waked up ! Old man. ^+++++^ REPLY 1. John Li says: April 26, 2016 at 4:52 pm You have too! You only post charts! REPLY 1. Chien-Jen says: April 27, 2016 at 10:57 am Hello John Li.. Are you from HK or Singapore ? 2. John Li says: April 27, 2016 at 1:12 pm Why only two options? 3. Chien-Jen says: April 28, 2016 at 1:06 am Your Last name is “LI” and your english is very good. haha… 4. John Li says: April 28, 2016 at 7:05 pm I live in New York now.

32. Richard Isaacson says: April 26, 2016 at 4:59 pm This from spaceweather.com today: SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: On April 28th, probably late in the day, Earth will cross a fold in the heliospheric current sheet–a vast wavy structure in interplanetary space separating regions of opposite magnetic polarity. This is called a “solar sector boundary crossing,” and it could trigger geomagnetic activity around Earth’s poles. Now would be a good time for JH to start a new article/post but he might be waiting for a day of zero Sun Spots. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: April 26, 2016 at 5:30 pm Today’s American elections (many voting participants from the financial districts of New York) combined with a major Geomagnetic event later this week could produce a “blow off” top in American stocks that imparts power to the adage “Sell in May and go away”. Some time soon, maybe this Summer, Sun Spot counts will go to zero too. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: April 26, 2016 at 6:13 pm A euphoric “blow off top” of both Crude and Stocks might not end until May 3 for a “Tuesday Turn Around” (Chicago trading pit term). The down side may get impulsive with a surprising May Non Farm Payroll report (employment report) next Friday. Days latter the Sun Spot count could fall to zero.

REPLY 33. Mark says: April 26, 2016 at 7:44 pm John Li – thanks for mentioning those dates above. We discussed these dates during early March 2015, when I said that US stocks would become massively volatile during H2 2015 with declines of 12-40%. That has now happened. Those dates are based on the typical ISN (sunspot monthly average) breakdown periods in previous weak solar cycles. I also said that they would cause the current wave of speculation to end during the time range Q3 2015 to Q2 2017, with Q2 2016 and Q1 2017 being the most important. So here we are April 2016 and the ISN is in fact breaking down – on Monday it will be confirmed at significantly under 50: http://sidc.oma.be/images/wolfjmms.png When it broke down under similar solar circumstances in the past (1832, 1885, 1896, 1910, and of course September 1929) it caused major market moves, but the direction of each move depended on other influences at the time. As an example, if SP500 were to repeat the 1920s bubble it would have to reach 3963 by April 2017 – but I don’t expect it to play out exactly like that, as these historical rhymes always fail once they become obvious. Instead, there are several other reasons why I still think there’s a 90% chance of a US stocks mania continuing into 2017: – lunar declination, – relative strength of long term Bradley siderograph, – oil’s 9.3 year lead, – decennial pattern, – relationship between lunar standstills and land prices, – 70 month bull + 13 month consolidation pattern versus 64 month bubble pattern, – other sentiment and fundamental reasons. REPLY 1. valley says: April 26, 2016 at 10:56 pm And Saturn (the gas giant most similar to earth in chemistry) is in the Galactic Center’s path next 16 months (Sag); as it was in 28,29…58,59…86,87; every 29.5 years a mania in asset prices. REPLY 1. Mark says: April 27, 2016 at 7:09 pm Thanks – I hadn’t noticed that 29.5 year sequence, even though I have been using a 29.5 day cycles (which was one of the indicators of a SP500 bottom on 11 February 2016). I also note that 16 month period – very close to the 18 months it typically takes for final manic phases (and of course that manic phase might well have started two months ago). August 2017 matches well with my final big date for the gold market, July 2017, and I think we are now very likely to see gold top by 22 May 2016 then fall to either 990 or 900 (Fib sequences from 1910 and 1800) by July 2017 to coincide reasonably closely with the top of a stocks bubble (Q2/Q3 2017). REPLY 2. John Li says: April 26, 2016 at 11:41 pm Thank you Mark. I was hanging on 4/1920 ISN of 24.7 off the 179.5 highs being similar to 4/2016 ISN of say 36 off the 146.1 highs. I am coupling this with the 8 year US presidential cycle aligning April to April swing highs, as we seek to replace a two term US president 1920/2016. The market peak 11/1919 would also correspond to the QQQ peak 11/2015 as well. Earlier in the month, 4/2016 ISN seemed to be in the 20s rather than 30s, which makes the fit even better. Furthermore, earlier in the month, SPY did not make new ATH, and so the 4/2016 swing high argument seemed stronger as well. However, April 8th 1920=2016 has passed, and as you said this historical rhyme is failing as markets should already be falling if like 1920. What do you see with lunar declination and/or lunar standstills and land prices? I don’t know much if anything about them. REPLY 1. Mark says: April 27, 2016 at 8:00 pm I hadn’t looked closely at SC15 as it was a relatively strong one, but I see what you mean about April 1920. I don’t think the solar cycle alone can reliably tell us whether stocks will go manic or crash, but it is virtually certain that one or other will start soon. Geomagnetic disturbance is the common factor behind these natural phenomena, and as you showed yourself a year ago here that fear-inducing disturbance will start to fade away soon with the ISN (although there is often a final short term geomagnetic spike at the ISN breakdown). We discussed the nature of lunar Standstills a few years ago. Humans have always regarded them as very important – they spent hundreds of years building places like Stonehenge in order to measure them. At each Major Standstill there is a banking crisis: – 1820 most US banks failed (Standstill 1819) – 1837 several UK banks failed (Standstill 1837) – 1857 Banking Panic (Standstill 1856) – 1873 Banking Panic (Standstill 1874) – 1891/3 Baring failure and Worldwide Crash (Standstill 1893) – 1910/1 Panic (Standstill 1911) … and then of course 2007/8 Financial Crisis (Standstill 2006). Peaks in US real estate activity during this period were 1819, 1837, 1855, 1869, 1888, 1910. The connection between banking panics and land prices is obviously that land is the primary security on most loans. Why it is almost perfectly correlated with the maximum movement of the moon in our sky – I don’t know. Major Standstills are always followed by: 1) strong economic activity, as banks have been sorted out and borrowing surges (just when everyone is extrapolating the recent past into the future and predicting catastophe), 2) sustained low interest rates, 3) cheap energy, 4) new technological progress. But this time our authorities did not allow the banks to fail, by fighting this natural process. And they are still fighting it… REPLY 1. purvez says: April 27, 2016 at 8:43 pm Hi Mark I have to confess that I don’t understand the details of what you and John Li are discussing but just looking at the dates and adding 18 to 2006 would give us 2024 when the next major catastrophe will end. Am I right in that assumption, please? Thx in advance 2. GM says: April 27, 2016 at 9:42 pm Interesting information, thanks for sharing it. Online sources reveal that the cycle for lunar standstills is every c.18.6 years, which fits with the dates you mention above from the late 1800s to early 1900s, and counting forward would also seem to include 1929. I tried to find some accurate dates online (hell of a job) and still looking. Accurate dates would be useful, as I understand it has to be 18.5 or 19, not somewhere in between, due to solstices. Where can one find accurate historical/future dates though? (This site has a table entitled ‘extreme southern moons’ which could be the dates, but maybe not: http://www.global-vision.org/astroarchaeology/archive/research/papers/sunmoon/index.html ) I noticed this site: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/a-remarkable-lunar-paper-and-numbers-on-major-standstill/ It mentions the minor standstills, one of which has just happened late last year. ‘Lunar standstill During the June Solstice the Ecliptic reaches the highest declination in the southern hemisphere, −70¢-130¢ When at the same time the ascending node has a 90° angle with the Sun in the southern hemisphere, the declination of the Full Moon in the sky reaches a maximum at −23°29¢ – 5°9¢ or −28°36¢. This is called the major standstill or Lunistice in the southern hemisphere. Nine and a half years later, when the descending node has a 90° angle with the December Solstice the declination of the Full Moon in the sky reaches a maximum at 23°29¢ + 5°9¢ or 28°36¢. The other major standstill or Lunistice, this time in the northern hemisphere.’ As a betting man, knowing what I know about the world of banks and debts, and seeing deflation hitting property prices in many prices, and with the ECB ready now to tackle and resolve failed banks, and indeed all FSB subscribing countries are now ready, I would be amazed to NOT see a banking crisis within a year from late 2015, i.e. this year. But I have no past data on the minor standstills. Roughly 9 years before 2006 was 1997 (followed by the dotcom bubble peak/crash). Admittedly my knowledge of lunar/solar stuff is sketchy, but I would be interested to see the accurate dates for the last century, as I’d bet the episode in 2008/09 (disallowing market forces to clear the system), has actually been happening ever since the 1920s, but I would need the dates to verify that. Certainly central banking/govt policy in the US has been to bail out every time, rather than cleanse. So…..will that change? Not likely in the US for a while, but definitely in the Eurozone. So, I still find it hard to envisage how a huge stock market bubble could develop in the next 18 months, other than a real shitstorm in Europe/China, and trillions flooding the US treasury and stock markets in fear. But in that event, how can gold tumble back below $1,000. We will see, but all very interesting indeed. 3. GM says: April 27, 2016 at 9:53 pm Interesting information Mark, thanks for sharing it. Online sources reveal that the cycle for lunar standstills is every c.18.6 years, which fits with the dates you mention above from the late 1800s to early 1900s, and counting forward would also seem to include 1929. I tried to find some accurate dates online (hell of a job) and still looking. Accurate dates would be useful, as I understand it has to be 18.5 or 19, not somewhere in between, due to solstices. Where can one find accurate historical/future dates though? I noticed this site: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/a-remarkable-lunar-paper-and-numbers-on-major-standstill/ It mentions the minor standstills, one of which has just happened late last year ‘Lunar standstill During the June Solstice the Ecliptic reaches the highest declination in the southern hemisphere, −70¢-130¢ When at the same time the ascending node has a 90° angle with the Sun in the southern hemisphere, the declination of the Full Moon in the sky reaches a maximum at −23°29¢ – 5°9¢ or −28°36¢. This is called the major standstill or Lunistice in the southern hemisphere. Nine and a half years later, when the descending node has a 90° angle with the December Solstice the declination of the Full Moon in the sky reaches a maximum at 23°29¢ + 5°9¢ or 28°36¢. The other major standstill or Lunistice, this time in the northern hemisphere.’ As a betting man, knowing what I know about the world of banks and debts, and seeing deflation hitting property prices in many prices, and with the ECB ready now to tackle and resolve failed banks, and indeed all FSB subscribing countries are now ready, I would be amazed to NOT see a banking crisis within a year from late 2015, i.e. this year. But I have no past data on the minor standstills. Roughly 9 years before 2006 was 1997 (followed by the dotcom bubble peak/crash). Admittedly my knowledge of lunar/solar stuff is sketchy, but I would be interested to see the accurate dates for the last century, as I’d bet the episode in 2008/09 (disallowing market forces to clear the system), has actually been happening ever since the 1920s, but I would need the dates to verify that. Certainly central banking/govt policy in the US has been to bail out every time, rather than cleanse. So…..will that change? Not likely in the US for a while, but definitely in the Eurozone. So, I still find it hard to envisage how a huge stock market bubble could develop in the next 18 months, other than a real shitstorm in Europe/China, and trillions flooding the US treasury and stock markets in fear. But in that event, how can gold tumble back below $1,000. We will see, but all very interesting indeed. 4. GM says: April 27, 2016 at 9:55 pm Phew, that comment was eaten by wordpress initially as it had 2 links. Paging back saved it. Here’s the second bit: (This site has a table entitled ‘extreme southern moons’ which could be the dates, but maybe not: http://www.global-vision.org/astroarchaeology/archive/research/papers/sunmoon/index.html ) 5. John Li says: April 27, 2016 at 10:49 pm Thank you Mark. This is very interesting. I agree the pattern is strong for UK and US land prices in general. I compared to the Case Shiller index and found the correlation to be there for the recent few decades. If the new technological process is true, I can imagine Merlin in front of Stone-hedge performing new chemical reactions — perhaps scientists are night-owls and draw creativity from the moon. My current positioning is a option straddle to capture volatility both up and down, in addition to my longer term small China short. 6. Mark says: April 27, 2016 at 11:08 pm purvez – 2024 is the correct year. Major and minor Standstills are very different – see Gann’s notes in his Financial Timetable: http://time-price-researchastrofin.blogspot.ie/2012/03/wd-ganns-financial-time-table-extended.html The years in the red band are Major Lunar Standstills; green are Minor. 7. purvez says: April 28, 2016 at 8:09 am Mark, many thanks for the WD Gann link. On the table that you mention there is a vertical line break and if you look at the red horizontal line there appear to be 2 Major Stand Stills in short order : 2004 & 2006. The text doesn’t seem to provide an explanation of this. Please would you be able to provide an explanation? Thx in advance. 8. GM says: April 28, 2016 at 11:32 am purvez, ‘As the charts indicate, I’ve chosen a cycle so that the end points occur when the moon is in the region of her extreme southern (and northern) positions in her 18.6 year nodal cycle. When I first started this investigation I believed that the two cycles – the Metonic and the cycle of the nodes – were completely separate. However, during the course of the investigation, I realized that, since the extreme southernmost positions of the moon happen in the spring or the fall, the length of time between two major standstills can not be 18.6 years. I could see in the data that it switches back and forth between 18.5 years and 19 years. This raises the possibility that the two cycles could have been observed simultaneously, observations of one helping with the tracking of the other..’ from my link: http://www.global-vision.org/astroarchaeology/archive/research/papers/sunmoon/index.html The Gann chart is highly suspect, as are Mark’s earlier *dates* in my opinion, as they count in whole years. The gap is because Gann’s chart (I don’t know who drew it) got so out of synch it had to be reset by losing a year, like a leap year, except a whole year had to be lost. Pick a year, any year! It’s all very much unscientific, and one just needs to look at the legend to know that it’s not working and describing conditions from history, rather than modern life. I can’t be bothered, as it’s clear that Mark hasn’t been, but one would need to know actual dates to make any conclusions on correlations, and just look at the examples Mark has provided…..the dates are all over the place, sometimes the standstill is before the crisis, sometimes after. Pointless. But even if you accept it all at face value (as Mark appears to), what’s strange is that the Gann chart shows that 2016 and 2017 will be years of low stock prices? So what gives? The minor lunar standstill impacts predicted in the charts can be ignored? All of the above, plus plenty more, leaves me very sceptical of Mark’s predictions. 9. John Li says: April 28, 2016 at 7:51 pm GM, I had the same thoughts when I saw the standstill data initially. Mark’s contribution is that standstill works for land prices and hence banks, and I do agree that the fit is better than with the stock market. 2. purvez says: April 28, 2016 at 4:19 pm GM, I’m inclined to think of this subject (which I’m just being introduced to) as ‘guidelines’ rather than exact scientific fact …..and hence I’m currently giving it more leeway than I otherwise would. Even just being aware of periods of time in cycles when things are moving in a certain direction (albeit broad) is still useful for awareness. Of course the danger always is that you start to ‘see’ things simply because you are looking for certain events. For the moment I’m just trying to read up more on it, like you are but keeping an open mind.

REPLY 34. Krish says: April 27, 2016 at 8:56 am Oil is giving a clear message to the market…the low was $26 so buy buy buy for the recovery ahead. Who cares about the glut..lets start a mania in commodities too!

REPLY 35. Richard Isaacson says: April 27, 2016 at 4:27 pm Crude (and stocks???) rally is long in the tooth: http://www.investors.com/news/get-ready-for-a-texas-sized-oil-spill-on-the-market/ REPLY 1. Peter_ says: April 27, 2016 at 6:54 pm Oil uptick due to inventories data. Market indices were unaffected by oil collapse, so why must they dance for a rally? Oversupply of fast foods should follow Apple miss. Oh no, bears also turning into vegans.

REPLY 36. Krish says: April 27, 2016 at 6:22 pm FED holds rates…stocks explode. Standard market action. Oil also exploding higher. Need dollar to strengthen if oil is going to go down. Stopped out of my DOW short thanks to the immensity of the almighty federal reverse.

REPLY 37. Pulp says: April 27, 2016 at 7:52 pm In total, the Dow hasn’t really spent much time above 18070.

REPLY 38. Jegersmart says: April 28, 2016 at 8:02 am In terms of oil – remember Venezuela has barely enough cash to keep the lights on. The last figures I have on them is they are producing in excess of 2 million bpd – will they be able to keep that going? J

REPLY 39. Jegersmart says: April 28, 2016 at 11:41 am FWIW, I am feeling a little more hirsute today – so will wait until later but am probably going to be shorting some QQQ, AAPL or whatever the opposite of what Krish is doing haha (I kid, no offence) I don’t think I am going to be touching oil for a while tho, that is one wild ride that doesn’t make much sense. J REPLY 1. Krish says: April 28, 2016 at 3:34 pm I’ve gone short DOW again. The bulls did a great job today pulling the market up but i think as we move into May the market will drop. I guess this means Jeger will be going long… REPLY 1. John Li says: April 28, 2016 at 6:20 pm LOL good one! REPLY 2. GM says: April 28, 2016 at 4:04 pm You’re feeling more hairy? How does that work? I’ve bought some QID within the past 20 minutes @$30.59. Awaiting a pullback in gold miners that may not come for months, or ever. REPLY 1. John Li says: April 28, 2016 at 6:19 pm Still short FTSE as well? REPLY 1. GM says: April 28, 2016 at 6:31 pm Yes. Down to 5,200 on futures I reckon. 2. John Li says: April 28, 2016 at 6:45 pm I am seeing weird action between the major indices and industries. Nikkei tanked last night, others did not. On the other hand, Dow is moving down today, while Biotech is up nicely. Hampson’s graph above on IBB shows that we did move down since his last post, but today would be counter-trend despite down indices. 3. GM says: April 28, 2016 at 8:43 pm I guess Nikkei was an inverse move to the Yen jump. Other markets, perhaps retail bulls are becoming confused, running out of options? Hopefully there will soon be nowhere for bulls to hide. Good luck with IBB.

40. Richard Isaacson says: April 28, 2016 at 5:22 pm Could it be that the Lunar Declination Cycle (18.6 years) is not only causing the usual strongest of the four El Ninos that occur in it but also the yearly high in American Stock Indexes of 2015 –and– 2016 to be one Lunar Year apart (Delta Medium Ones as highs)? REPLY 1. John Li says: April 28, 2016 at 6:23 pm Which index? Dow peak 5/2015 or NDX peak 11/2015? REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: April 29, 2016 at 2:28 am DOW and S+P 500 indexes. I am looking for the yearly high that might be new ATHs next week but after that I think that a major Bear market will be on into 2017.

REPLY 41. GM says: April 28, 2016 at 6:38 pm Pop. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/reuters-america-exclusive-chinas-main-commodity-exchanges-have-ordered-major-institutional-investors-lacking-commodity-industry-background.html REPLY 1. GM says: April 28, 2016 at 6:44 pm I took my QID position based on short-term NDQ futures resistance at 4440. But look back at a monthly chart to 2000. Fascinating level. REPLY 1. GM says: April 28, 2016 at 6:56 pm Wonder if sterling will peak here versus the USD? Decent chance to add some juice to my QID. Did this trade with Stocktrade, only £50 for the overseas trade versus several hundred charged by the evil Hargreaves.

REPLY 42. John Li says: April 28, 2016 at 7:47 pm Good call everyone…Krish, GM and Jeger….I finally joined the fun to with IBB down. REPLY 1. GM says: April 29, 2016 at 3:47 pm Nice move down for you in IBB today JL.

REPLY 43. GM says: April 28, 2016 at 9:10 pm Fascinating read here. Abe & Krugan, planning to boost demand (despite demographics) via fiscal means. A hail of arrows! Quite scary really, the madness of it. I feel inspired to write a post about it this weekend! Got gold my Japanese friends? PS I have asked the ECRI who shared this link if they are sure it is genuine, no reply just yet. https://www.gc.cuny.edu/CUNY_GC/media/LISCenter/pkrugman/Meeting-minutes-Krugman.pdf

REPLY 44. Richard Isaacson says: April 29, 2016 at 3:13 am I think that a near term (Intermediate) low is in for the DOW/S+P 500 and that they will trade up to a new yearly high and maybe a new ATH. But instead of going long them I have gone long Natural Gas. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: April 29, 2016 at 5:53 pm If the Shorts need to be burned not once, or twice, but repeatedly, before the major Bear market can get underway, then it seems reasonable that new ATHs are on their way in the DOW and S+P 500 stock indexes. Yellen is concerned about Labor so Mr. Market may be looking at May’s NFP to start burning the Shorts by trading up to new ATHs (after the report next Friday morning) before the major Bear market finally commences in earnest. Before the next major Bear market can start as many Bears as possible have to be separated from their money….. its just the nature of the markets. REPLY 1. John Li says: May 1, 2016 at 2:01 am Let me know when I should start shorting please, if ever. Quite serious…we have all given up.

REPLY 45. GM says: April 29, 2016 at 11:29 am @bobmiser22 Got it, excellent! — Zigzag (@zigzag_23) April 28, 2016 He’s a time junkie.

REPLY 46. Peter_ says: April 30, 2016 at 7:22 am Beware the ending of the era of CB omnipotence or at least a dulling of its potency as credibility evaporates and fear of the consequential vacuum gains momentum. Some consideration of RSI behaviour on hourly, daily & weekly can save much time wasting on endless and fruitless search for rationalised logic (sense). Correlate with other TA that works for you and maybe give up the Harvey Wallbangers whilst deploying resources to better effect. Then maybe we will see less of the wild speculation that somehow makes sense but has nothing else going for it.

REPLY 47. Mark says: May 1, 2016 at 1:39 pm Price and time. SP500 is back at its most important price (2065) exactly at one of the two most important times of this whole solar cycle (the first ISN breakdown from its solar max range into a new lower range). The other important time will be the second breakdown due early 2017. These breakdowns have always been the cue for major market moves in the past. But sunspot numbers will not break down completely yet; instead the new lower range will persist until early next year. Geomagnetic disturbance will also wane, but gradually… From February 2012: “It strikes me that the alignment peaks [Jupiter-Earth-Venus] correlate very well with geomagnetism peaks (as detailed in the last table on your “Timetables” page). Then, looking at the long-term DJIA chart (on your Ultra Long Term Models page) we can see that buying stocks at geomagnetism peaks during secular bears would be an extremely successful strategy – 1942, 1974 and 1982… They [JEV alignment peaks] appear to anticipate geomagnetism peaking during 2015, which would sit reasonably well with your other analyses.” https://solarcycles.net/2012/02/23/solar-cycles-and-astro-trading/ Geomagnetism did in fact peak first at March 2015, and then more convincingly during August to December 2015 – that is what caused the nervousness during H2 2015. So what do the forthcoming JEV alignment peaks indicate for the next year or so? The three main peaks are Q3 2012, mid 2014, and Q4 2016, so neither sunspots nor geomagnetism are going to disappear quickly – both will wane only gradually throughout 2016 until sunspot numbers drop away again close to zero early 2017. None of us alive today have experienced this before (sunspots and geomagnetism declining together) because all solar cycles during our adult lifetimes were relatively strong – ie. where a much more distict sunspot peak was followed by 2-3 years of increasing geomagnetism, causing a risk-taking period to be suddenly overtaken by a risk-aversion one. This is the main reason why I have been saying here for years now that looking for a repeat of 2000 in price and time is the wrong approach. But we should get something new, and big, very soon – a weak spell for US stocks, especially between 10 May and 8 June, and then the start of a manic phase. REPLY 1. GM says: May 1, 2016 at 4:40 pm I appreciate Mark’s continued comments. Mark, you write that we have never experienced declining sunspots and geomagnetism together. I’d ask you (and others) to have a look a the charts on this webpage. The bottom chart (AP index progression) is described as being a measure of geomagnetic activity. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression Are you looking at some other data? Because that AP index does not show that geomagnetism is declining, in fact it’s been rising since 2013, and one could perhaps make a (weak) case that it has consolidated at a middle range for the past year. I’m curious as to how you can predict: ‘neither sunspots nor geomagnetism are going to disappear quickly – both will wane only gradually throughout 2016 until sunspot numbers drop away again close to zero early 2017.’ What is the basis for this prediction? In regard to sunspots, your prediction does not align with the forecast from the chart, which shows a steady decline into 2019/20. Apologies if my questions seem direct, but I just don’t see what you see at all, but I am keen to understand whether it’s your bias, or me missing your point or looking at bad data. How are sunspots and geomagnetism connected, or are they entirely independent of one another? Thanks again. REPLY 1. GM says: May 1, 2016 at 5:00 pm http://www.solen.info/solar/ The site above has a monthly table for sunspots and AP. It does show a big decline in sunspot numbers (to 38) which Mark has identified as moving to a lower range and bringing market change with it. I get that. The AP number is steady at 8.7, on the low side, but it’s been at that level a few times in the past few years, and indeed lower. I am really curious how one can predict the next month, or the rest of the year, other than by extrapolating the trend, which doesn’t always play out, as was the case in the big bump up during 2014. REPLY 1. GM says: May 1, 2016 at 5:46 pm ‘None of us alive today have experienced this before (sunspots and geomagnetism declining together)’ 2004-2010? 2. Peter_ says: May 1, 2016 at 7:09 pm Either a mini or God forbid a full ice age onset? Not sure if equatorial zone should be the better place. But the madness of the collective human psyche does not detract from such hypothesis. Otherwise some relief at the appearance of the hidden hand. 3. GM says: May 1, 2016 at 9:26 pm Mini or full-blown, a global thermonuclear war will (temporarily) warm things up a bit. Please let it be a mini, although that will probably be enough to tip us over the edge. Any suggestions for tropics locals would be appreciated asap. 4. Peter_ says: May 2, 2016 at 2:32 pm Stay close to Mark, but it will cost you plenty… http://tinyurl.com/zfcp23z 5. GM says: May 2, 2016 at 5:33 pm Holiday resorts are not the answer Peter_. I will do research on where to be during the onset of a mini ice-age (for self sustenance). It’s the security/political side of things that’s tricky, as well as the climate-related issues. Plus I have no clue about farming! Jeez. Sure I’ll find a willing local for the right money. 2. Peter_ says: May 3, 2016 at 8:34 pm Just thought you might appreciate the story of a 6yr old going missing in the forest and being found alive after 6 months. Maybe you could survive yourself in such, push going shove. No problem, less demand the better.

REPLY 48. Krish says: May 1, 2016 at 2:08 pm I closed out my Dow short on Friday. There is still a chance of new ATH’s before we turn down. Some may be wondering how I can be shorting now after being so bullish earlier but I still do not expect a bear market yet. For me the bear market indicator would be a central bank sugar bomb which fails to rally the market to levels before the preceding drop. I want to see lower highs and not by only a couple hundred points…I need to see a high 500 point or more lower than the previous to be convinced central bankers have really lost influence. At the moment I expect this to occur at the end of this year or early 2017 but it could happen much sooner. No one knows as we have never been in such a position previously. Looking forward to this months trading as I am expecting more volatility.

REPLY 49. jegersmart says: May 1, 2016 at 7:10 pm Krish We have been here before in some form other many many times. What the **** are you talking about? What are your decisions based on? I only ask because I am very worried about you to be honest, and don’t understand how you can risk money on thin air reasoning…….(seemingly). J

REPLY 50. Richard Isaacson says: May 1, 2016 at 9:00 pm How about this year’s high day in the S+P 500/DOW being the exact same day as last year’s: May 19. Wouldn’t that be a kick-in-the-pants? REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 1, 2016 at 10:26 pm I expect the Dollar and DOW to rally to this Friday’s NFP report. If the report is favorable then the rally in US stocks may not stop until the 19th just like last year (Buying the Dips is still the correct Trend). REPLY 2. John Li says: May 2, 2016 at 4:05 am That is also the high in 2008

REPLY 51. GM says: May 2, 2016 at 10:11 pm ‘The focus of the government has already started shifting toward fiscal stimulus, as those around the prime minister increasingly feel that they can no long depend on monetary policy. In fact, moves are afoot within the ruling LDP to start a campaign against the BoJ’s negative interest- rate policy because LDP lawmakers have recently started receiving petitions from their constituents in regional areas who want the government to stop the “out-of-control” BoJ, whose policies are hurting local lenders and their customers. Such opposition within the ruling party could tie the BoJ’s hands.’ Trapped now. Fiscal next. Boom. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 3, 2016 at 3:37 pm Concerning Central Bankers: The Emperors have no cloths. (It is 1721 all over again. Buy those Tulips, buy those Tulips. Buy those tech stocks, buy those tech stocks).

REPLY 52. Richard Isaacson says: May 3, 2016 at 4:19 pm Today at spaceweather.com Right now, Earth is in an “aurora-friendly” region of interplanetary space. Magnetic fields in the area have a negative polarity. Such fields can open a crack in our planet’s magnetosphere, allowing solar wind to pour in and fuel geomagnetic storms. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 3, 2016 at 4:35 pm Might this explain some of today’s crazy trading in Stocks, Treasuries, Currencies, Metals, and the Grains? REPLY 1. purvez says: May 3, 2016 at 7:49 pm Everything’s possible in this world of ours, Richard I….that’s all I keep telling myself as wend my weary way through it.

REPLY 1. Peter_ says: May 3, 2016 at 8:51 pm The 2nd chance to get out (as up top here) just left on a leading index (JSE). Take something to overcome the weariness, the time for sharpening of wits is upon those of us that utilise them. 2. Richard Isaacson says: May 4, 2016 at 11:17 am I am not long stocks. I think that being long stocks is extremely foolish at this time. I am only looking to short stocks on rallies; i.e., Sell the Rips. 2. John Li says: May 4, 2016 at 4:58 pm Richard, good call not to be long stocks… The north pole of the sun finally flipped convincingly after flip-flopping several times in the teens. http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html If this is not the peak, the solar model is greatly flawed, as every other event (solar max, etc.) has passed.

REPLY 53. GM says: May 4, 2016 at 1:24 pm Peter_, yes the story of the 6 year old was nice, thanks. I am a tad skeptical about its truth however. Well, the bulls still are calmly wallowing up at relatively high ES levels, not realising the peak was 20th April, but as we point out at this blog, plenty of signs of weakness unfolding everywhere else. My Ftse shorts are now within 0.5% of breakeven (still in the red), but my QID positions look healthy, and sterling looks to have (maybe) peaked against the USD, which is handy. Any bounce today, of any decent size, and I will add some more shorts, tempted by copper & oil, but might just stick to the Ftse. Good luck all bears. Will gold be taken down with risk, as the USD gains? I suspect not. I hope Mark replies to my questions, it’s good to understand someone’s reasoning, as it could be very valuable to all who read here. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: May 4, 2016 at 4:07 pm $US index going for its expected bounce off the high probability 92 (1st) target, So $Au retrace parrots and now a projection for both hopefully with some similar probability can be examined. Will advise further…

REPLY 54. Pulp says: May 4, 2016 at 4:35 pm Just tagged the pitchfork centre line on the DAX at 9840 (it didnt sail straight through),meaning less of a dramatic drop for the rest of the day. http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/JYNbn

REPLY 55. Richard Isaacson says: May 4, 2016 at 5:37 pm If Crude is starting back down to new lows will it take Gold and other Commodities with it? Has Deflation not yet ended in Commodities? Even though today’s ADP job report was lack luster tomorrow’s New Claims could point to a better Government NFP on Friday which could reverse stocks and attempt another run to new yearly or All Time Highs by the 19th or so. I will look to “Sell the Rip” higher. For short term traders I don’t recommend being short into tomorrow’s New Claims as the trend has been for historical low numbers and if low numbers are reported I would expect to see another attempt to rally US stocks into Friday and beyond. REPLY 1. John Li says: May 4, 2016 at 9:18 pm Hedged IBB now…we shall see if you are right on the rally. I just need vol to make money.

REPLY 56. GM says: May 5, 2016 at 3:10 pm Added some more Ftse shorts this afternoon, 2 trades, averaging in at c. 6075 on the futures. I see that Peggy’s guy Sean has a low at May 10th. Interestingly that’s when Mark sees weakness as beginning (til early June). As long as there’s weakness, I’ll be happy enough. Weakness in gold/miners would be very nice too please!

REPLY 57. purvez says: May 5, 2016 at 3:44 pm This is what I’m seeing at the moment on the DJIA since the 21st April high. http://postimg.org/image/p86dkxqwx/ Once the Leading Diagonal is completed we should have a DEEP retracement to somewhere near where 2 ended before we get the ‘C’ wave down to complete the ABC from last May’s high. ‘Stop loss’ point would be ‘b’ top. This one has been frustrating to call the ‘bigger picture’ but I think yesterday’s and today’s action have clarified things. GL to all. REPLY 1. purvez says: May 5, 2016 at 3:48 pm Sorry meant to say that wave 3 is a bit of a ‘dodgy’ one because it can be counted as having legitimate 5 sub waves but the 5th one there is not ‘text book’ hence I’ve counted it as a 3 waver. i.e. a double zig-zag….if you squint hard enough. LOL. REPLY 2. Tim says: May 6, 2016 at 11:02 am Nice chart I have 76.4 fib around 17400 ish, further support around 17300 ish if overshoots & 16950-17000 at the 61.8 fib level. I also have a falling megaphone from 27 April (top line) which appears to allow for a melt down to the 17000 area though I’m no expert on megaphone rules. Will be interesting to see to see what happens today as Shia flip flops within the 17500-50 range again.

REPLY 58. Richard Isaacson says: May 5, 2016 at 4:10 pm For anyone with a pair of big brassy ones (light open interest futures don’t scare the pants off of you) I think that American Oats futures are oversold and will rally this year to catch up with many Grains (Corn and Soybeans) and Foods (Rice and Sugar) that are already strongly rallying. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 5, 2016 at 5:35 pm Stocks are not the only game in town. Soybeans have already rallied in a “3rd” wave. Today, Corn has set up to start rallying in a 3rd wave; Wheat has set up to rally in a “3rd of a 3rd”; and Oats has set up to rally in a “3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd” wave. Should NA suffer from the coming La Nina then those wave counts could prove correct given that recent weather problems in Asia (India and Thailand etc.) and SA have already “primed the pump” for historical rallies in the Grains and Softs/Foods.

REPLY 59. Jegersmart says: May 5, 2016 at 5:28 pm If we break 104.9 on QQQ I may add to my short positions, especially if AAPL closes below support today as well. I suspect that even if we bounce here, we will probably go much lower over the coming weeks and months. XBI was actually a possible long earlier, but it looks like it has broken down so far. A lot of the Biotech stocks will probably lose at least 4050% of their value this year imho. Just be patient…. all imho ofc J

REPLY 60. Jegersmart says: May 5, 2016 at 5:30 pm Just as a heads up, unless we have some very heavy downside across the board, I may look to start buying FXI at around 30 for a longer term swing trade. Everyone is talking as if China is dead, but I don’t think so personally. J REPLY 1. GM says: May 5, 2016 at 6:11 pm Not sure if FXI is hedged into USD, but beware yuan devaluation. If I had to bet on one big macro event this year, it’d be a big yuan devaluation. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: May 6, 2016 at 9:10 am Good point, I don’t think it is as although it says its base currency is USD it also says: Currency Risk: The Fund invests in other currencies. Changes in exchange rates will therefore affect the value of the investment I also have a GBP/USD currency risk to some degree. What sort of scale of devaluation are you talking? Over the last 10 years I can see the Yuan has appreciated by around 18-19%? Cheers J REPLY 1. GM says: May 6, 2016 at 11:27 am 20-30% wouldn’t surprise me. Maybe less.

61. Jegersmart says: May 5, 2016 at 5:37 pm p.s. GM, think that may well be the right thing to do even though it is against my rules (which I break on occasion ofc). It looks to me like GDX is getting ready to break support unless its some NFP shenanigans for tomorrow. If they do break down, I don’t fancy FTSE much imho. J

REPLY 62. Pulp says: May 6, 2016 at 7:29 pm The dax didnt break down below the diagonal line shown attached : http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/fWQbn REPLY 1. GM says: May 6, 2016 at 9:27 pm Gap at 9,000 looks….gappy.

REPLY 63. Charles Meyer says: May 7, 2016 at 6:27 pm Seasonal Sell fired on 5/02

REPLY 64. stormchaser80 says: May 7, 2016 at 11:45 pm Hey all. Free read, login-free post! Technical, candle and volume analysis of weekly, daily, hourly levels plus volatility and internals! http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

REPLY 65. GM says: May 8, 2016 at 8:35 pm I’ve noticed that even though the solstice is only around 6 weeks away, it’s getting dark in the UK very early this year (or it seems that way to me). Anyone else noticed this? I’ve noticed it as evening golf rounds are having to be curtailed at around 8.40pm. Sunspots effects? Or just my imagination?

REPLY 66. jegersmart says: May 8, 2016 at 9:38 pm SUnset was at 20:36 today in London, up from 20:34 last year and same as in AD 2102. Worst “hey, look at me I play golf” post ever….haha J REPLY 1. GM says: May 9, 2016 at 10:47 am Thanks for the data. Maybe it’s the sunspots affecting me.

REPLY 67. Krish says: May 9, 2016 at 9:07 am DAX power rally has been confirmed. Good chance of a return to 10450+ now which will be a great point to load shorts. I’m long from 9890 this morning

REPLY 68. Jegersmart says: May 9, 2016 at 1:42 pm How has it been “confirmed”? J REPLY 1. Krish says: May 10, 2016 at 8:18 pm Was looking for a bottom around 9700-9800 and then a break above 10k which happened. Dow is powering ahead today too. Big drop coming in the next few weeks but maybe 12% further upside left in US indices until then. A bit more with Dax I think. REPLY 1. GM says: May 10, 2016 at 11:33 pm 40 point gap up on the futures, then flat all day. Wow! The gaps always get filled, so enjoy them while they last. Peggy’s guru Sean had his ‘singularity ‘ yesterday BTW. It was THE LOW, with ES projected to hit 1589 I recall. SO, hope you were all short to catch that one! We’re now in Mark’s weakness window, shame he hasn’t come back with a response to my questions. Mark? REPLY 1. Krish says: May 11, 2016 at 10:00 am A break below 9930-9940 would damage the bullish trend for the DAX so I have stop losses at breakeven allowing for some overshoot.

69. pulp says: May 10, 2016 at 4:32 pm DAX: 12-50 sma cross overs…noticably some of the falls after the 12-50 cross are the same: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/zdZbn

REPLY 70. Richard Isaacson says: May 11, 2016 at 11:08 am New FED labor model points towards a Recession: http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-suggests-recession-coming-2016-5 I am looking for a May 19 high (new ATH?) in American stocks before the Bear market gets under way. REPLY 1. John Li says: May 11, 2016 at 1:50 pm I am looking at 5/12/2016 due to Bradley. Why 5/19? REPLY 2. Jegersmart says: May 11, 2016 at 3:27 pm Hi Richard I think the “labor” numbers are really pointing to that what the Fed is doing finally is showing results. By pumping up the stock indices with direct intervention, fewer Americans than ever need to work due to not needing an income when their stockbroking accounts are showing such a good profit. From reports I have read, approximately 180 million Americans no longer need to work again in their lifetimes due to the Fed’s “wealth effect” interventionism. There will be no further QE though apparently, there will be QPC instead. This is where the Fed circumvents the middle man (stock and bond markets) and just transfers funds directly into corporate coffers and guarantees 4% net profit growth for all Wilshire 5000 companies for 3 years. (Quantitative Profit Contribution). If you have not met me before and are American, the above is “sarcasm”. Sarcasm can be making a strong statement but you really mean the opposite. All the best J

REPLY 71. Krish says: May 11, 2016 at 3:43 pm Another power pump on oil today. Really struggling to see how the random prediction by EIA for Brent to hit $76 in 2017. If that were the case Saudi would ramp production by 2 million barrels and enjoy massive profits at the same time. Same with all other arab countries and frackers would be at it again. If it did hit $76 again I would expect US frackers to hedge production for 5 years and pump like mad! I am close to initiating a short position on oil as i feel a repeat of last year is likely with oil prices.

REPLY 72. Jegersmart says: May 12, 2016 at 9:00 am The EIA has no better idea than anyone else what the future price will be. Also, if Saudi rampe dproduction by 2 million barrels, we would be looking at $30 oil again most likely. The oil market fundamentals are complex, I would stay out unless you really have a handle on what drives the oil price. Hint: oil price is itself irrelevant, it is only what you can DO with oil that gives it its value. But, of course these days with ETP’s like USO, financials can take HUGE positions that warp the fundamentals (as we see now). J

REPLY 73. Jegersmart says: May 12, 2016 at 2:03 pm You probably all noticed it yesterday, but WMT fell out of its wedge and indicators starting to point to a bear market for that POS unless something changes drastically by the end of the week. That stock market wealth effect I alluded to – where are people spending their part time job money? AMZN? J

REPLY 74. Jegersmart says: May 12, 2016 at 2:40 pm AAPL following suit REPLY 1. John Li says: May 12, 2016 at 3:23 pm I was wondering which way the Bradley 5/10 5/11 turndates point, and it seems like a peak, as I said above.

REPLY 75. Richard Isaacson says: May 12, 2016 at 4:19 pm I am not Long Stocks. I haven’t been long stocks for weeks. I am only looking to “sell the Rips” in stocks. I am long some Ag futures. I think that a historical Bear market in US stocks will soon manifest itself. May 19 was not only last year’s high in the S+P 500/DOW but also the All-Time-High. After May 19, I will get busy shorting US stocks with some gusto. If JH hasn’t been financially wiped out then I expect a new post soon as I think that it would very timely. Maybe he is preparing to post it on May 19. Personally, I think that would be wise and could be very timely –and prophetic. REPLY 1. purvez says: May 12, 2016 at 4:43 pm I would imagine that if John H had been financially wiped out then this web site would not exist. REPLY 2. John Li says: May 12, 2016 at 10:01 pm Hats off to Richard Isaacson. I don’t know how you do it, but I think you are right on 5/19/2016. I have taken my considerable profits from my IBB puts. I am not sure if we will go up much, but my option premium will bleed away by expiration next week. Yellen is out again saying negative rates are possible. I can always change my mind and short again tomorrow, but re-analyzing my position, I am not sure if 5/12/2016 Bradley was a bottom or a top, after SPY rallied to close up on the day and above any moving average.

REPLY 76. purvez says: May 12, 2016 at 4:40 pm Here’s another one from J Snyder of Alhambra which provides some AMAZING historical context to how we arrived up this proverbial creek without a paddle. http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2016/05/11/unfortunately-it-was-only-a-brief-moment-of-clarity/ REPLY 1. GM says: May 12, 2016 at 4:48 pm I shall read that purvez. I’ve got out of the habit of reading Jeff Snyder, because it’s very repetitive, I don’t know how he does it. Always worth a look though. Something I often think, and will today write: John Hampson, I really do hope you’re OK in terms of health, give us a quick comment so we all know please. I am sure you’re navigating these markets well, life’s physical ups and downs not always as easy. Best wishes. And as always, thanks to those that still contribute here. Especially Freddie. REPLY 1. purvez says: May 12, 2016 at 6:50 pm Huh!!!???? Who’s Freddie? Have been properly introduced? REPLY 1. GM says: May 12, 2016 at 7:51 pm Freddie adds value to the blog by his silence purvez. 2. purvez says: May 12, 2016 at 8:59 pm GM you are speaking in riddles now. I’ll try and decipher that message tomorrow when the effects of the nice wine has lessened.

77. Pulp says: May 13, 2016 at 7:13 am DAX Target: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/Nklbn

REPLY 78. Jegersmart says: May 13, 2016 at 9:17 am If it can take out early May low, that looks quite feasible. imho J

REPLY 79. stormchaser80 says: May 14, 2016 at 6:48 am Visit the free http://navigatethemarketstorm.com to read about multiple time scales and internals with 9 charts total! (no login required for this post!)

REPLY 80. John Li says: May 15, 2016 at 2:52 am Mark, For US farmland, the major standstill years of 1988 and 2006 were great years to buy, instead of sell.

REPLY 81. pulp says: May 15, 2016 at 10:26 am DAX: I think we are in a down channel after leaving the bigger up channel: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/WKubn

REPLY 82. ultra909 says: May 16, 2016 at 3:53 pm NDX: http://schrts.co/GqzmF1

REPLY 83. John Li says: May 16, 2016 at 6:16 pm Looks like a rally to 5/18/2016 indeed. Let’s copy 2008.

REPLY 84. Pulp says: May 17, 2016 at 9:27 am Here is a non-Andrews pitchfork DAX chart I’ve been using: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/LK1bn

REPLY 85. Richard Isaacson says: May 17, 2016 at 6:05 pm I have taken profits on my Grain Longs. I think that a Medium top is coming for both the Grains and Crude (possible the Metals, too, as the Dollar turns higher). I am looking to “Sell the Rips” in American stocks.

REPLY 86. Peter_ says: May 17, 2016 at 8:27 pm Dollar rally is corrective only, the downside that follows will test all belief systems. The charts are finally waving familiar things, but CB leaders cannot read sign language… http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/ If you ill – get well soon; if you well – don’t get ill any time soon

REPLY 87. Richard Isaacson says: May 18, 2016 at 1:11 pm I think that Stocks are returning to the usual Lunar Cycle in that Stocks will bottom with the Full Moon this Saturday and rally back up to the New Moon in early June. I think that the USD is also going to surprise by rallying strongly with Stocks as Commodities, including Crude and Gold, take a tumble to the downside. I think that the rally in Stocks to the next Full Moon (in early June) will be the final “second chance” before Stocks go over the cliff for a sustained Bear Market. Note the timing of June’s New Moon to the June NFP report (American monthly Non Farm Payrolls or “jobs” report). REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 18, 2016 at 1:26 pm And this from spaceweather.com today: “NOAA forecasters say that a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) will hit Earth’s magnetic field on May 19th. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving solar wind streams; they contain strong magnetic fields that often spark geomagnetic storms. But that’s not all. Following closely behind the CIR, a high-speed solar wind stream will arrive on May 20th.” I wouldn’t be surprised to see a deep spike low this week in American stocks that only does another hard reversal followed by a rally that fools those who think that “this is it” and add to their shorts at the bottom just like this past January, 2015, and Fall, 2014. I think that that another rally to June will be the final “second chance” before the Bear Market in stocks really begins to show itself. REPLY 2. John Li says: May 18, 2016 at 2:03 pm What happened to the 5/18/2016 sell signal? REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 18, 2016 at 6:02 pm 5/19/15 was last year’s high and the ATH. I am looking to “Sell the Rips” regardless if 5/19/16 is an Intermediate/Medium swing low or a Long term high. It looks like Delta’s Intermediate 3 point is not going to be a high but a low. I calculate it as due 5/19/16 regardless whether it is a high or a low. I now hold that this year’s high was a Delta Intermediate Inbetween Point that brought in a Medium Inbetween Point and that low Intermediate 3 point is bringing in low Medium 1 point and I now look for high Intermediate 6 point to bring in a second Medium Inbetween Point as a high (but not a new ATH) and then the Bear Market will get going in ernest this Summer. I was long the Grains such as Corn but have taken profits. Not wanting to go long Stocks but only “sell the rips” in stocks I have reversed my Grain trade and gone short some Grains such as Corn. I will continue to wait to short stocks. Patience or “setting on ones hands” can be a virtue in the markets. REPLY 1. GM says: May 18, 2016 at 6:31 pm If Richard is correct, we might see Ftse and NQ100 fall down to their next fib levels before the end of the week, c.5834 on Ftse futures and c.4200 on Nas futures. But they need to break through the fib levels that have been holding as support for the past couple of weeks. Easy to see this happening. Easy to see a bounce there, not much of one, but a chance to close out shorts and re-load a little later. Oil and gold falling together whilst stocks rise into a rising US dollar…not sure all of that can happen simultaneously, but we will see. Oil must be close to topping, I’d be interested in a EW count on oil.

88. Peter_ says: May 18, 2016 at 7:00 pm Taking SPX500 index with three significant highs each with its own integral RSI divergence (chart just added at http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/) the concept of 2 lesser peaks following the significant one stares into my eyes and whispers that Richard could well be onto something here.

REPLY 89. Richard Isaacson says: May 18, 2016 at 11:49 pm I have been comparing two years of dailies of the DOW to the S+P 500. Comparing both of them to each other I think that in May, 2015, the 18 point rotation L-4 was a high that was brought in by a high M-1 and both brought in a high 6 point rotation Inbetween Point and Super Long Term point 6. In February, 2016, an 18 point rotation low L-7 brought in the 6 point rotation L-2 as lows. In April, 2016, an 18 point rotation L-8 was a high that was brought in by a high M-1 and both brought in a high 6 point rotation L-3. Note that the S+P 500 low 18 point rotation L-7 in February, 2016, decisively exceeded its low L-5 of August, 2015, whereas the DOW’s barely did. Note also that the DOW’s high L-8 in April, 2016, decisively exceeded its high L-6 of November, 2015, where the S/P 500 clearly did not. Therefor, taking the two indexes together yields the truth about the 6 point rotation and when its 2 and 3 points came in –both are late with the 2 latter than the 3 compared to their respective due dates and standard deviations about each separate due date. The ATH and high of 2015 was a M-1 and one Lunar Year latter (one calendar year minus a month or so) the high of 2016 is also another M-1. If the current low I-3 is bringing in a low Medium point then it would be an Inbetween point and that means that its M-2 must be a high and could be a new yearly high and/or a new ATH (but I doubt that). “If” low I-3 is bringing in a low Medium Inbetween point then I would expect high I-6 to bring in a high Medium 2 point that is not a new ATH nor a new 2016 high. However, after high I-6 brings in a high M-2 stocks will “crash” to the low Super Long Term point 7 not due until 2017. I believe that this is the “correct” solution of the Delta rotations for the S+P 500/DOW which can only be arrived at by comparing two years of daily closing prices of both together. If I am correct than after the first half of June American stocks will begin their long awaited decline. REPLY 1. Krish says: May 19, 2016 at 2:46 pm I have taken the plunge and am long DOW. First entry was at 17454 and second at 17383. Expecting a fairly good rally to 17800 region which is top of the triangle from the recent high. After that I will likely load up on shorts and take a long holiday in a place with no internet so I cant take profits on the shorts too early (ie. I think a big drop is due shortly). Lets see how it plays out from here! GLA REPLY 2. John Li says: May 19, 2016 at 3:07 pm This is very interesting. I see 5/18/2016 as a swing high and 5/29/2016 as a swing low. However, it is possible that my model is inverted, so I am keeping an eye out. I believe that June will begin the decline as well, after all the weak hands are whipsawed.

REPLY 90. Peter_ says: May 19, 2016 at 7:22 am Fed minutes offer nought for $US bulls, so I expect the resumption of $ trend (down) and thereby commodity prices up. Could be a pause til next Fed waffle show for the more serious addicts, depends on the sanity factor out there where nothing should ever be assumed.

REPLY 91. purvez says: May 19, 2016 at 8:55 pm John Li’s last post which talks about ‘highs’ and ‘lows’ on specific dates is what has sparked THIS post of mine but it is not directed only at John Li but all others who also seem able to arrive at ‘turn dates’. Please can one of you explain ‘HOW YOU DO IT’? I can count waves and to a rough extent project possible turn VALUES but how the heck do you guys get ‘dates’ or even ‘date ranges’? This is a bit of TA I’ve not been able to get my head around and I would very much appreciate some guidance please. Thx in advance. REPLY 1. GM says: May 19, 2016 at 9:38 pm I follow a guy on twitter called ZigZag, he works on time patterns that repeat over and over. I guess John Li and others here use solar/lunar influences, which is also time-related if you think about it. Separately, this tweet keeps it simple for a H&S failure or success on SPY: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci1j3wVWkAAMaib.jpg:large REPLY 2. John Li says: May 19, 2016 at 10:25 pm I don’t count waves. I don’t usually posts dates, but I find 5/18/2016 interesting because it is after the 13F filings of hedge funds are posted for Q1. In 2008, that market had swing highs in the S&P 500 after the 13F filings at that time. This time, Soros revealed his puts and long gold. In addition, we had the Bradley turndate 5/11/2016 and the market has so far shown that that was the peak. I am sure others have different indicators. REPLY 3. Peter_ says: May 20, 2016 at 6:17 pm Surfers got guidelines when impulsing such as #5 here… http://tinyurl.com/z2c69xk But these simple geometrics can become like a Medusa hair day for the non-enthusiast. Meanwhile we know cheaper and cheaper money in ever increasing volumes is never gonna be an ad-infinitum thing, something has to be produced be it the original expectation or its alternative. Time to come in is overdue, and I don’t look forward to systemic failure stuff. One thing is the possibility of making mega chingching only to find it redundant, retired, history, aarrrgh

REPLY 92. GM says: May 20, 2016 at 4:18 pm A triangle? http://screencast.com/t/D7G0HvwB Just got to be patient I reckon. Then down hard.

REPLY 93. Richard Isaacson says: May 20, 2016 at 4:30 pm I suspect that around the World there is a growing shortage of Animal Feed as more and more people are trying to eat better by eating more animal protein (meat). With most of the Grains at multi-year lows means that they are making Delta low Super Long Term points. Throw in a falling Dollar and any and all weather problems will cause the Grains to soar. Delta’s S+P 500 Intermediate rotation point 3 was clearly a low as it came in yesterday which by my calculations is it’s average due date. I was looking for it to be a high that would make this May’s high about the same time as last year’s May and ATH. Last year’s May and ATH was a Delta Medium One point and, a Lunar Year latter, it did it again which is a rarity. Why do I think such? Because One’s don’t want to come in together and my experience shows that when they are near each other (this year) they come in opposite of each other. With the I-3 as a low (yesterday exactly when due) points to I-2 as a high and I-1 as a low and a late low. Why was the I-1 late? Because it is coming in opposite of high M-1 and is repelled so hard away from the high M-1 that not only is it a low but a late low. I suspect that I-1 being a late low is pointing towards low I-3 bring in a Medium Inbetween point so that high I-6 will most likely bring in M-2 but not a new yearly or ATH. After high I-6 and M-2, in the first half of June, the long awaited Bear Market in American Stocks will be on and in a very big way. There may also be a very big Investment Rotation out of Stocks and into Commodities like the Grains etc. REPLY 1. John Li says: May 20, 2016 at 6:57 pm You are right. I stand corrected. I am now net long IBB. REPLY 1. John Li says: May 20, 2016 at 7:01 pm May my capitulation prove to all that this is indeed the peak. REPLY 1. GM says: May 20, 2016 at 7:31 pm Just opex stage-management to save da boys this week. Watch out next week I reckon. I hope you get back on board the bear train before it gathers too much speed. Have a good weekend all, it’s 12 degrees and raining in SW England, bloody solar cycles!!

94. John Li says: May 20, 2016 at 8:39 pm You could be right and I could be wrong as I frequently am. But I am not jesting. I stopped out and went slight long. I join Barry in heaven or hell. I agree with Richard — that is to say, the big crash will indeed come but a latter day (not even month). REPLY 1. John Li says: May 20, 2016 at 8:41 pm Sorry I meant Krish, not Barry. I hope Barry is well though.

REPLY 95. jim genosky says: May 21, 2016 at 5:37 am How’s it going over here?

REPLY 96. jim genosky says: May 21, 2016 at 5:41 am Purvez!

REPLY 97. Pulp says: May 23, 2016 at 7:25 am DAX: Which way is it going to break? http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/wPLbn

REPLY 98. Krish says: May 23, 2016 at 7:58 am We should get the rally to 17800 starting this week and maybe even completing this week. There is a chance we could go even higher to 18k+ but I would use that opportunity to load up on shorts. I not then its possible the big wave down may have already started.

REPLY 99. Jegersmart says: May 23, 2016 at 8:11 am OPEX was pretty weak last week – nevertheless managed to regain some key levels to ensure as many people lost out as possible. JL, not sure what has changed your mind? To my eye, nothing much has changed over the past month – most markets still in a downtrend for now? J REPLY 1. John Li says: May 23, 2016 at 8:14 pm Not sure myself Jeger. I am probably wrong. I mirror Krish. We both realize that the top might be in, or it might not, but in any case think a rally to the holiday/EOM/Yellen speech would be par for the course. But I am trading IBB/XBI, and it is up again today. I realize other stuff is down. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: May 24, 2016 at 10:17 am Hi John I don’t think any of us are sure about most things – I certainly hope not – I was just wondering how you reached the conclusion. Is it price-based, moon cycle based, sun spot based or something else? The reason I ask is that as you know almost all my decisions are based on the tape, and from my view nothing much has happened in a month. I am currently short AMZN, QQQ, FB, GDX, GLD, NUGT – long a couple of UK stocks and still haven’t seen my 30 number for a starter long position in FXI I guess I am pretty short right now although keeping it relatively light. Good luck! J REPLY 1. John Li says: May 24, 2016 at 1:22 pm I am stopped out. That is probably the best reason. Yellen speech/Holiday/Turn-Of-Month are all academic reasons to wait for a better short entry point.

00. GM says: May 23, 2016 at 10:48 pm This is one is for dear old Nic, and anyone who believes that CBs can do anything (other than keep a stable currency): http://www.fuw.ch/article/the-business-of-central-banks-is-like-pornography/ (spoiler: they can’t). Fama, one smart cookie.

REPLY 01. Krish says: May 24, 2016 at 7:44 am Thought i may have got it wrong but the bulls have roared back to life today after the open so 17800 is still on for now. Would welcome a little pumping action by the FED to boost us a little higher. REPLY 1. Jegersmart says: May 24, 2016 at 12:06 pm Roar = meow…….? REPLY 1. Krish says: May 24, 2016 at 1:36 pm Roar = roar. They will be meowing soon though. Taken 50% of profits at 17625 on DOW and leaving rest for 17800 with stop at break-even. REPLY 2. Krish says: May 24, 2016 at 1:43 pm Gone short DAX at 10012. Will build as/if it rises. Central banks are still successfully playing their manipulation games so being careful with position sizing.

REPLY 02. Pulp says: May 24, 2016 at 2:29 pm DAX 12-50 sma 4hr cross over pending: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/SrYbn

REPLY 03. Barry says: May 24, 2016 at 3:11 pm John Li – I am fine…. Just watching the market go sideways – seemingly endlessly…. I used to check this site every day, but that was also when John was posting charts more regularly – and I always enjoyed seeing John’s new perspectives on looking at data… But he hasn’t for a long while, and since the market isn’t moving much, I have nothing new to say and just stop by here to catch up every so often… And even then, mostly just looking for Jeger’s comments… He and I seem to see about the same things, at about the same time, using different methods.. So appreciate the confirmation (or not) that he offers.. And Jegers is a MUCH better and disciplined trader than I am, so again, a good reason to check in once in a while here… That said, still holding shorts via ETFs, (SPXU / ERY / TZA / TVIX) along with short gold stocks via DUST and JDST… I’m not as leveraged short as I was, and have taken plenty of lumps on those open and covered positions…. The good part of that is that I’ve built up cash levels again, so I’m ready to get heavy short again, when that trade appears timely… I think we’re close, again, (and I’ve been wrong before – haha) but just being patient for now, with nothing really new to say… Maybe Mark is right… Less is more… REPLY 1. John Li says: May 24, 2016 at 3:59 pm I am glad you are doing well and have a cash position for the big short when it comes. I believe that is invaluable. I also hope that JH will return soon with updated analysis. I respect Jeger a lot, and know he will make money. For all I know, FB/AMZN can tank while IBB rallies and we can both be correct. This month is my first down month in 6 months, and I respect my stop more, but come June, after Memorial day, I think more fireworks might come. Volumes are pathetic right now, so I can see why no one has much to say. The calm before the storm I hope. I still have positions, short China forever, but hedged, and in such a small leverage that the Chinese govt cannot get me — I hope…I suppose they could halt trading for 3 years and make me pay the borrow on my short for a long long time. I hope we don’t get WWIII. The thing that really bothers me is that I expect the waterfall to wrap up before the end of the year, like in 2008. (Sure, we got a dip after in 2009) With tax loss selling and an election, it seems like a good theory. However, we are running out of time for that view — and to mention the solar maximum and lunar minimum last year becoming distant memory.

REPLY 04. Jegersmart says: May 24, 2016 at 4:45 pm Thanks guys – likewise. A couple of things I just want to mention. I am not waiting for “the big short” or endless waterfall declines if they do come. This is because those events generally start with a down trend or in some cases a gap down that gets retested blah blah and therefore looks innocuous and difficult to “wait for”. If you really look at the early 2000’s and 2009 declines and most of the bear markets since then on a granular resolution of 60/120 min charts or something like that – generally if I am honest with myself did I spot anything coming from week to week? Probably not….it is very easy when looking back. As it happens I did fine, but I think I could have done a lot better and I want to to continue to do a lot better in the future. Recently as we have seen, the QQQ’s have held up pretty well whilst FANG have not. If you look at Biotechs, the moves we are seeing now are tiny compared to what they have gained in the last 7 years. In the larger picture I expect a lot of those individual companies to lose 60-70% of their value in the not too distant future, and although this seems cataclysmic, it would actually be a health correction to some, but also a return to vaguely same PE levels for some of the constituents at least. The point I am trying to make is that it is easy to spot the past waterfall when it is laid out in front of you in the charts, not so easy to navigate when you are in the boat looking for white water:) The second thing, and vaguely interesting thing perhaps is that generally speaking there is some reason for waterfall declines, even if bear markets are generally much shorter and more vicious than the bull cycle, as they tend to snowball (in my view). With that in mind, I would really take a look at the default levels in commercial/industrial loans. Bad mortgages are easing, but the former are snowballing, I think from memory we are about 75% of the way back to the peak in 2009. Additionally, and it could be too early yet – but the very expensive end of the London property market has been puking now for almost 6 months, quietly and in the background with 10 times the amount of properties over £xmillion for sale compared to the annual numbers in the last few years. London prices in general though are up 13% YOY, which from what I hear is mainly 2nd home buying with cheap credit. The top is puking (not filtering through just yet as not sold), the middle is leveraging right up…….it looks to me like we are back to the “this time it’s different”…….but sriously look at non-performing commercial loans and how they are snowballing if you are looking for waterfall declines. a trigger is needed imho. I want to be positioned in accordance to what I see in the charts when I see it. I am not waiting to see DOW down 600-1000 points on a day or whatever to take a position. You will never be sure whether it is real or fake. There are always opportunities long or short, and as long as you can put a stop somewhere that makes sense to your trading – who cares whether it is long or short? For the moment, it looks like QQQ is contained by the 108.3x high so I have added short exposure now with a tightish stop just btw lol. p.s. I have been waiting for 30ish on FXI before going long, its up 2+% today – have I missed out????:) GLA J REPLY 1. John Li says: May 24, 2016 at 5:53 pm Thanks…a short post to mention what is happening on the other side of the pond today: (Bloomberg) — Purchases of new homes in the U.S. surged in April to the highest level since the start of 2008, pointing to a robust spring selling season for builders, Commerce Department figures showed Tuesday. According to Zerohedge, this is a 17 sigma positive surprise. I have no idea how anyone can get it so wrong…but rate rise coming? Scratching my head…Mark will be right here, real estate is a buy overall due to the moon, but I suspect coastal cities follow the sun.

REPLY 05. Jegersmart says: May 24, 2016 at 4:49 pm I forgot to mention in my short post above that $50 oil is not going to save a lot of the tight oil players in the US – so I am also short FAS as an insurance policy….. J REPLY 1. Barry says: May 24, 2016 at 5:57 pm And ~THAT’S~ exactly what I was talking about earlier…. In looking at charts last night, FAZ has reached a point where it’s looking attractive to me, and that’ll be in the mix of shorts added next… Wasn’t really looking for a 200+ point up-move today, but regardless, it’s tempting, and made a note to myself last night that FAZ was going to be the ETF… It doesn’t bug me a bit to know Jeger’s already spotted himself a short FAS position…

REPLY 06. GM says: May 24, 2016 at 6:31 pm ‘endless waterfall declines’ Are they the opposite of ‘new all time highs’? Where does infinity end one wonders? Bull rallies like this need shorting, each time bull energy is expended to a lower high. There is no need for a trigger for a decent plunge, just sellers and ex-buyers selling, for a multitude of reasons, into a price vacuum, bid-less air. Soon, very soon IMO.

REPLY 07. Krish says: May 24, 2016 at 7:40 pm Added short Dax and closed Dow longs. Time to start building short exposure! REPLY 1. Krish says: May 24, 2016 at 8:38 pm DAX up 300 points since this morning! Completely bonkers so I had to start shorting. Is there a valid reason for the rally?. I’ve seen nothing in the news… REPLY 1. GM says: May 24, 2016 at 10:14 pm More dumb retail perma-bulls taking on the scrag ends of institutional selling? REPLY 2. Krish says: May 25, 2016 at 7:44 am make that 400 points rise in less than 24 hours! Added another short this morning at 10180 which will be my last for the moment as I’ve entered my shorts too early I feel. Made the common mistake of blindly selling based on the crazy rise than waiting for the correct signal. I am expecting a wave down to below 9000 over the coming months and expect little upside if any. S&P still has a chance to hit 2116 as mentioned by Peter Temple in worldcyclesinstitute so there could be more upside short term before a large drop commences. REPLY 1. Krish says: May 25, 2016 at 7:48 am forgot to say Peter does expect a full retrace of yesterday before the final wave to 2116. I was a bit skeptical of his 2116 target but it very much is on now.

08. Jegersmart says: May 25, 2016 at 7:38 am The only reason we know about for sure is that there are more buyers than sellers…..chart looks bullish to me for now but there are far better opportunities out there than that at the moment imho. Don’t add too much to your shorts from yesterday, you may get that 10400 rally you were sure was going to happen a week or two ago…. J REPLY 1. Krish says: May 25, 2016 at 7:46 am Haha it will be a bummer if it does get there as I completely did not trade for it. The consistent weakness in the DAX negated that scenario for me but it may be back on again…

REPLY 09. Krish says: May 25, 2016 at 11:50 am Big congratulations to Greece for securing a big loan to repay a different loan. Secretly the greeks know their entire debt pile will be forgiven so they are very smart in milking as much money as possible from Europe while they can. REPLY 1. GM says: May 25, 2016 at 4:39 pm It won’t be forgiven, but they will have no option but to default. Serve the lenders right too.

REPLY 10. Jegersmart says: May 25, 2016 at 11:52 am Attn: John Li Just fwiw, I took (less) profit on my FB and AMZN shorts – mainly because IBB looks pretty bullish at the moment – decent overhead resistance though at around 290 in my view and will reconsider if and when we get there. J REPLY 1. John Li says: May 25, 2016 at 1:15 pm Thanks for the update. The market seems to be up-down-up-down daily, which I think is a phase transition from Feb-March (Up Up Up). It did the same thing 10/2007. Bottomline: I will still stay safe until I see down-down, though I think the market is scheduled for down today (up yesterday) and will hedge my longs too. No prize to be “right” in a whipsaw market. I am keeping it small.

REPLY 11. Krish says: May 25, 2016 at 2:08 pm Shame i didnt hold my DOW longs until 17800 as its destroyed that level! Bulls in control again so time to hit the sidelines apart from my very badly timed small shorts on the DAX which I will just nurse over the coming week. This rally seems to have legs so S&P 2116 is now a likely target in my view. Shorts at that level should do well.

REPLY 12. Krish says: May 25, 2016 at 3:43 pm Gartman has gone long! Warning warning big market drop imminent. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/25/run-for-cover-if-youre-short-on-markets-gartman.html Gone small short at 17865 based on the Gartman indicator. Hoping he doesn’t get it right this time after a series of awful market calls.

REPLY 13. Jegersmart says: May 25, 2016 at 3:52 pm I am short AAPL here, with a tightish stop. Will probably know by the close whether this is a goer or not… J

REPLY 14. Krish says: May 26, 2016 at 8:05 am Pump pump pump off we go again this morning. Looks like this is one of those straight line up rallies with little or no decent retraces. DAX is possibly now on the way to 10700 so losses taken on DAX and DOW short closed at breakeven. I underestimated the significant power the bulls still hold as did many i guess. Maybe Gartman is right for the first time in over 1 year!

REPLY 15. Pulp says: May 26, 2016 at 9:47 am It has to be pumped for the rate hike? + from twitter.watch out for 616 the devils number of a month!! http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/139bn REPLY 1. Krish says: May 26, 2016 at 12:03 pm Well it just shows that unfortunately the market manipulators still have significant price control. I maintain a bear market is impossible until they lose the ability to control price. Only corrections will be possible. Still hopeful that over the next year their price control ability will fade significantly but until then shorting will always remain a very dangerous trade although quite profitable if timed well. On the flip side longs will also be highly profitable if luckily entered just before a manipulation event. Its very easy to tell between a manipulated rally and a normal rally…the normal rally will have a good retrace before reaching the peak which is something this rally completely lacks. REPLY 1. GM says: May 26, 2016 at 8:50 pm This 2-week rally? Yawn. Study some market history krish, you will learn much. REPLY 1. Krish says: May 26, 2016 at 9:05 pm I have studied history. I looked for years where we had similar monetary policy to today and found none. Therefore history is not particularly useful in predicting the future market moves. The DAX has risen 5% in two days on no significant news noW. The Bears have been hung drawn and quartered so maybe we will turn down soon once the Bulls are satisfied they have destroyed enough bears. 2. GM says: May 26, 2016 at 10:41 pm ‘I looked for years where we had similar monetary policy to today and found none’ Whilst monetary policy is irrelevant, you clearly spent a good few minutes on your studies. 3. Krish says: May 27, 2016 at 5:37 pm Currently on the sidelines. Looking to establish shorts on the DAX and DOW when the charts provide a trade. I’m ideally looking for a 10% correction to exit my positions. Still think the S&P will finish the year above 2000 4. John Li says: May 27, 2016 at 5:52 pm Thanks Krish. Pride before a fall, GM… 2. John Li says: May 26, 2016 at 9:12 pm I am losing track on your position, but today is a tight range day on the SPY and shouldn’t change anyone’s view.

REPLY 16. Richard Isaacson says: May 27, 2016 at 1:43 am El Ninos usually give rise to La Nina’s and La Ninas mean heat and drought for the USA. Going long American Natural Gas (companies) might be a wise trade for the Summer/Fall. (I went long American Natural Gas futures today.) REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 27, 2016 at 2:02 am Delta wise, both stocks and energy futures are on their way to high Medium Two points after both making low Medium Inbetween Points. The “proof” that stocks is on its way to a high Medium Two point is in Crude and Heating Oil futures Medium points solution. Natural Gas is a laggard and just made its low Medium Inbetween point today on daily Continuation charts. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 27, 2016 at 12:19 pm Is Copper beginning to rally in an Elliot 3rd wave? Are Heating Oil and Crude ralling up to a Delta high Medium Two point? If so, are the S+P 500/DOW ralling up to new ATHs and Delta high Medium Two points? Short Term Traders want to know…… REPLY 2. Richard Isaacson says: May 27, 2016 at 4:16 pm Today, Daily continuation charts of –American– Natural Gas futures prices are just beneath its 200 day sma for the first time since November, 2014. A sharp rally may ensue should it trade thru its 200 day sma especially with the long awaited “rebalancing” at hand.

REPLY 17. Richard Isaacson says: May 27, 2016 at 3:43 pm The wisest trades may be to “buy the dips” of the Canadian/Australian/New Zealand Dollars. REPLY 1. John Li says: May 27, 2016 at 5:50 pm Aren’t currencies a function of buying power and interest rates? FOMC hiking soon, dollar stronger, other currencies will go down. REPLY 1. GM says: May 30, 2016 at 2:26 pm John, here’s a link to the US yield curve. Only use nominal rates. Use the compare function to see how the curve has flattened over the past 2 years+. The Fed can’t raise rates, and if they do the odd quarter, it’ll soon be undone. The market wants low long-term US treasury debt, it sees trouble ahead. The only way it can buy these USTs? With dollars. Hence…… REPLY 1. GM says: May 30, 2016 at 2:27 pm https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspx

18. John Li says: May 27, 2016 at 5:59 pm As we approach the long weekend, I have gone flat on everything, and small short on China. The crash is near. QQQ/SPY might rally a little bit more to hit stops, or they might not. Keeping powder dry. REPLY 1. Krish says: May 30, 2016 at 11:54 am What makes you think a crash is near with the recent price action. It will take a lot of effort to drop the S&P below 2000 (i think it will happen though) and then we will get to 1900 or may be a little lower before an explosive buying spree powers stocks back up above 2000 again. I see no evidence of a crash anytime soon but a correction is a very likely scenario. REPLY 1. John Li says: May 31, 2016 at 4:12 pm I don’t have a system that tells me if the recent price action is bullish or bearish. How do we tell a short squeeze from a new bull market? I am sure smarter people here will know, or Richard Isaacson can tell us if crash starts 6/2016 or 2025. REPLY 1. GM says: May 31, 2016 at 10:41 pm Volume?

19. stormchaser80 says: May 28, 2016 at 2:56 am Free Read, no login required!! http://navigatethemarketstorm.com REPLY 1. GM says: May 30, 2016 at 1:49 pm Hey storm, if you want to pay me $50, I might have a look? Sounds a good deal yes?

REPLY 20. Richard Isaacson says: May 29, 2016 at 3:22 pm Is the rallying USD reinforcing a US stocks rally? Should EUR/USD break down below its 200 day sma will that mean an accelerated rally in the S+P 500/DOW to new ATHs –and– Gold/USD collapsing down to its 200 day sma and below –possible to new lows? Price action points most strongly to the S+P 500 Delta I-3 as a low that brought in a low Medium Inbetween Point. Question is will the S+P 500/DOW exceed their recent high M-1s while going up to their M-2s just like Heating Oil/Crude have done/doing? If so, then it seems the odds are high of new ATHs in the S+P500/DOW stocks indexes.

REPLY 21. Richard Isaacson says: May 29, 2016 at 4:57 pm New Thought: The Seasonal “sell in May and go away” becomes counter-Seasonal and the S+P 500 rallies up to a new ATH. Why, you ask? Because American Ags are rallying in a rallying USD. Oh me, oh my, what a benefit of rising US Farm values in a rising US Dollar has to S+P 500 stocks. This also means to expect Gold/USD to break down to new lows as money flows reverse from stocks-to-gold and back to stocks all over again. Delta-wise this points to six point rotation S+P 500 L-2 having already come in May, 2015, with low L-3 coming in only one month late in February, 2016, and with the expectation that L-4 will be a high in December, 2016. This also means that high M-1 brought in 18 point rotation L-8 with the real possibility that the recent low I-3 not only brought in a low Medium Inbetween Point but also an early low 18 point rotation L-9 which would grealtly explain the recent daily “take off” from those combined low points. This may rub some die-hard Solar Cycle adherents the wrong way but it is possible that Delta’s Super Long Term Point 7 has come in one month earlier that its known 100% range with low six point rotation Long Term point 3 in February, 2016. This does agree with the observed pattern going back over 200 years of the Super Long Term wave points trending higher within the 19 year cycle of always trying to top (before the crash) with point 14 –which isn’t due until the year 2025. However, this could agree with the weakness of the current Solar Cycle and it would be in agreement with a Crash-of-Crashes into the depths of the Mini Ice Age (which is the larger Cycle of the Solar Cycles). Seriously, the extreme focus on the current Solar Cycle may be entirely misplaced given it’s weakness and location at the very end of the larger Mini Ice Age Cycle (+200 years) which is itself comprised of Solar Cycles. Delta may be pointing the way forwards in that not only is the current Solar Cycle to weak but also that the Crash into the Mini Ice Age will be one for the history books as it will happen in Delta’s usual Super Long Term Inversion Window (or Crash Window) just like 1929, 1987, and 2006-2007 which will not start again until the year 2025. REPLY 1. GM says: May 30, 2016 at 7:52 pm Some are expecting a maxi rather than a mini ice-age Richard. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: May 31, 2016 at 1:52 am I know, we are due, but I don’t like to go that far. The Celestial Bodies effect weather on Earth. I consider Delta to be a double stripped down version of a much greater Celestial Body/Motion theory of market behavior on Earth. As an example, a major drought has effected Brazilian second crop Corn which is rallying US corn futures; and, major floods have hit Argentina Soybeans which has rallied US soybean futures over $10,000 per individual futures contracts. For every contract of Soybeans, which is the standard 5,000 bushels, that American Farmers sell, they will now get an additional $10,000 which is a sizable amount of money for Farmers in the Heartland from what they would have got just two months ago. India has suffered a rare two year decline in annual Monsoon rainfall (drought). India’s Monsoon season starts in June and already this year India has recorded new all time record high temperatures. This year could see another year of reduced Monsoonal rains or even out right Drought. Eight years ago, out right Drought in India resulted in World grain prices doubling and tripling. With a large American crop harvest and very high prices would be a boon to the American Farm sector which would put very great pressure on the S+P 500 to rally and the USD to rally (while Gold/USD drops like a rock). This agrees with Delta’s S+P 500 six point rotation Long Term point 3 being a low and its 4 point to be a high which is due December, 2016. It also strongly points to its low Super Long Term point 7 coming in with L-3 which means that it came in one month earlier than its current known 100% range and with L-3 being one month late. This helps to explain the recent unusual “take off” of the S+P 500 from its low I-3 which strongly implies that it brought in not only a Medium Inbetween Point and but an 18 point rotation Long Term point 9 (early). Counter Seasonal moves are usually outsized moves that tend to go parabolic and my particular Delta solution agrees with the fundamentals of the Celestial Bodies’ caused weather on Earth. REPLY 2. John Li says: May 31, 2016 at 2:41 am I was with you when you said 6/2016, but if you are now saying 2025 peak, I will have to disagree.

REPLY 22. Pulp says: May 30, 2016 at 6:00 pm Ponzi blog made me aware of wmp : ‘Massive Bailout’ Needed in China, Banking Analyst Chu Says By Paul Panckhurst http://bloom.bg/1TzAnS4 Bloomberg

REPLY 23. Pulp says: May 30, 2016 at 9:09 pm Concider Taleb’s turkey analogy..of being fed and fed and feeling increasingly safe as it is fed more and more.. until it’s neck is wrung by the hand that feeds it

REPLY 24. Krish says: May 31, 2016 at 2:10 pm Finally seeing a bit of weakness. Too early to tell if its the start of a corrective move but we will see this week whether a top has been made. I have taken a small short on S&P in case this is a top. Stoploss set at 2110. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: May 31, 2016 at 4:04 pm Looking for SPX downside pattern break to add shorts. Expecting unidirectional action, tight trailers, 5hr Rsi (14) about to cross. Some must ride.

REPLY 25. Richard Isaacson says: May 31, 2016 at 3:59 pm Looks like this week will be a “profit taking” week until the NFP this Friday. Both Ag futures and US stocks are turning lower.

REPLY 26. GM says: May 31, 2016 at 4:34 pm Rambus turns bearish on gold, bullish USD. https://rambus1.com/2016/05/29/weekend-report-100/ Fascinating overlay chart of the EUR index v gold in his post, makes you want to check the meaning of the Welsh name ‘Euros’ on google…do it. Peter_, will your RSI faith bear fruit? We will soon see. I reckon USD squeeze higher, gold (in USD) lower. I hear China had a flash-crash today. Only 10%, recovered quickly. Nothing to worry about. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: May 31, 2016 at 6:14 pm Yup, its one of those Bilderberg moments again. Month end, long weekend, but sure this thing is stretched. Can it be stretched further on ultra low volumes – indeed it can. Not much exchange of power in that, so the trip wires are waiting for the first move. May the smartest megalomaniac turn into a Norwegian Blue parrot. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: May 31, 2016 at 6:53 pm $USindex has daily Rsi divergence indicating more upside to nearby 99, but I doubt enough for a double top. Gold has a short term Rsi indicating a turn, probably be a twitch to sideways, should give way in $US, but resilience has already surprised. Twitching season. REPLY 1. Peter_ says: June 1, 2016 at 6:31 pm Weekly $USindex Rsi disagrees, i.e. happy to resume downtrend here. I always go with weekly until swept aside.

27. Jegersmart says: May 31, 2016 at 5:33 pm I never did get my entry at 30 for FXI…….maybe just as well lol J REPLY 1. John Li says: May 31, 2016 at 5:37 pm yeah today hurt

REPLY 28. Peter_ says: June 1, 2016 at 10:17 am This year the Bilderberg group meet is at the Taschenbergpalais Kempinski Hotel, Dresden, Germany from the 9th June – 12th June. On the secret agenda there is popular favour for what to do about Trump and progress with rigging the Brexit vote. The press and public will be kept away by redirecting all public security resources, and at their own cost as usual. The level of control is normal and helps everyone to reflect on what control is and what western world illuminati power is for. Apparently quite a few people are still needed, so mass extermination is not yet popular on this years agenda. There willbe no reporting and no one will say anything. You will now delete this website and erase your memory or the Illuminati Gestapo will find you & kaput. REPLY 1. GM says: June 1, 2016 at 2:31 pm The powerful will always control the masses. Twas ever thus, they are better and brighter, the fittest of our species. One is likely to be duped though if one considers Bilderberg as the true font of power in this world. That resides hidden in the shadows, whilst being obviously apparent, if one has eyes. http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/20/donald-trump-sheldon-adelson-israel-trip-campaign-donation REPLY 1. Peter_ says: June 1, 2016 at 6:43 pm With an agenda of moving toward a single world order and related system of control, where democracy and transparency cannot help to do it we need something secret, something selfish, something unethical… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBypAFQ3ZCk

REPLY 29. Pulp says: June 1, 2016 at 1:02 pm Taschenbergpalais Kempinski Hotel DAX 4hr: http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/FQMbn

REPLY 30. Jegersmart says: June 1, 2016 at 1:58 pm Thanks Peter, I note they still have rooms available at £95 or so per night. Bargain.

REPLY 31. Jegersmart says: June 1, 2016 at 2:22 pm I started an AMZN short position at 725.2 – some negative divergences, rising wedge etc etc. And NFLX longer term short, looking for gap close around 50. J

REPLY 32. Richard Isaacson says: June 1, 2016 at 2:59 pm I think that we are at the start of a Super Spike in Cocoa.

REPLY 33. Richard Isaacson says: June 1, 2016 at 6:27 pm December, 2016, corn futures did a remarkable rally today to new highs of the move. So what, short term traders say. Oh and look, the S+P 500 turns around to positive while the DOW lags. New Crop Corn futures is the most important American Farm product that brings in the most money to the Heartland of America (and the S+P 500). Clearly, SC 24 is NOT, NOT, NOT, going to Crash the American S+P 500 even though it did crash Crude and some Emerging Markets like Brazil etc. –Time to move on and admit the obvious.– REPLY 1. Peter_ says: June 1, 2016 at 8:36 pm Doubled up those shorts, just got to when things come together like this. Expect crash less 1%

REPLY 34. Richard Isaacson says: June 2, 2016 at 1:44 am Indians believe and are relying on a La Nina to end and reverse their two year drought. Today, the usual first day of the Indian Monsoon season, saw US grain futures know better by their rallying onward. The El Nino was not as strong as the Artic Oscillation. The negative AO persists and will overwhelm any La Nina just like it did the El Nino. This means the Drought in India will continue and worsen. High Grain prices with large yields will see a great deal of money flow to the Heartland of America which will rally the S+P500. “Sell in May and go away” is based more on falling US Farm values and less on Geomagnetism than is generally understood. This year will be a “buy in May and hold on for dear life” as the US Farm economy rallies strongly with large amounts of Grain and ever higher prices as a third year of Drought (and disaster) takes over India. SC 24 is not going to crash the S+P 500 like it has already done to Crude and some emerging markets. REPLY 1. Richard Isaacson says: June 2, 2016 at 11:22 am Instead of Planetary Weather lets look at the revival of the American Farm Sector (and S+P 500 stock index) differently. The latest Cattle on Feed report showed an unexpected large increase of Cattle taken off of the range and put into Feed Lots. Yesterday, the NOPA report showed an unexpected large increase in Soybean crushing. Hmmm, that is interesting. Argentina is the largest Soybean Meal exporter. Argentina has suffered a radical decrease in Soybean production which has curtailed their exports of Soybean Meal. Brazilian Corn production has declined so much that Brazil is expected to start importing USA corn. In fact, the shortage of Corn in Brazil is so great the Chicken Farms can’t get chicken feed –at any price– and tens of thousands of birds are dying of starvation. Truly amazing. With worldwide demand for animal protein growing ever larger, Soybean Meal futures have been the “leader of the pack” in the on going AG market rally. Usually, this time of year, American Farmers drive Ag prices lower by over production. But not this year. This year Ag futures are going counter seasonal and are rallying. This means a revival of the American Farm Sector and, thus, the stock index known as the S+P 500. REPLY 2. Mark says: June 2, 2016 at 12:25 pm Nice to see a mention of solar cycle 24 on solarcycles.net, that doesn’t happen very often nowadays. There is indeed very little chance (