The Evolution of Forensic DNA Database Policy Success; addressing unmet potential; and the path to the future Presented by Tim Schellberg Gordon Thomas Honeywell Governmental Affairs HIDS Conference - Barcelona, Spain May 10, 2016
Early Adopters
United Kingdom, USA, New Zealand, Australia & Western Europe
Data from early adopters pushed the rest of the world forward
Countries to follow: 54 Countries Implemented
54 COUNTRIES HAVE IMPLEMENTED NATIONAL PROGRAMS OVER 70 MILLION OFFENDER SAMPLES
Australia Austria Bahrain Barbados Belarus Belgium Brazil Canada Czech Republic Chile China Croatia Cyprus Denmark Estonia
Finland France Germany Hong Kong Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Japan Jordan Kuwait Latvia Lithuania Netherlands New Zealand
Macedonia Malaysia Mauritius Norway Oman Panama Poland Portugal Qatar Russia Slovenia Slovakia Singapore South Africa South Korea
Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Uruguay
These countries have implemented legislation/polices on a national basis to database the DNA of a defined category of criminal offender
Solve Prevent
Exonerate
Save
Impressive numbers USA :
14 million offender profiles
United Kingdom :
5.7 million
63% Hit Rate
Spectacular hits The Washington DC Mansion Murders The European Serial Murder Case
322,000 hits 29,000 annual crime scene to subject matches
May 14, 2015
Savopoulus family & Veralicia Figueroa
May 18, 2015 Pizza crust led to cold hit
May 21, 2015 Arrested Daron Wint, trial pending
Prüm Network
Gerhard & Erna Hintermaster • • •
Murdered May 21, 2015 Vienna, Austria Left mark on body expressing joy from torture
•
No match in Austria database, but cold hit in Dutch database through Prüm
Darius Kotwica •
•
Arrested June 8th •
Already tied to additional murder in Sweden Other crimes pending
Case Study: Chicago Chicago’s examination of the criminal activities of 8 individuals identified 60 violent crimes, including 52 murders and rapes, that could have been prevented if DNA had been taken on felony arrest. In each case, the offender had committed previously undetected violent crimes that could have been solved immediately through a DNA match. However, DNA was not required at arrest. What crimes could have been prevented? • 22 murders – victims ranging from 24 to 44 years of age. • 30 rapes – victims ranging from 15 to 65 years of age. • Attempted rapes • Aggravated kidnapping This study helped pass the Illinois arrestee legislation Source: Chicago Study on Preventable Crime 2005
Brazil – The Marco Trigueiro Case 2006: Brazilian Congress rejects legislation to allow DNA to be taken from every convicted offender.
Released from prison in 2008 for a violent crime conviction - no DNA taken as legislation failed. Rapes and murders five women in Belo Horizonte during 2009, leaving DNA at all crime scenes Four of the five murders could have been prevented if the Brazilian Congress would have passed legislation
Adna Feitor Porto DIED, January 16, 2009
Congress needed to act to save these (4) innocent women.
Ana Carolina Assuncao DIED, April 16, 2009
Maria Helena Lopes Aguilar DIED, September 16, 2009
Natalia Cristina De Almeida Paiva DIED, October 7, 2009
Edna Cordeiro De Oliveira Freitas DIED, November 11, 2009
BRAZIL MOVES LEGISLATION
FORWARD President Dilma Signs DNA Database Law on May 28, 2012
The United Kingdom compares the DNA from 40,000 crime scenes annually against the database and gets a 63% hit rate. Consider how many innocent people DON’T get a knock on the door as a result of this.
“Effects of DNA Database on Crime” University of Virginia Study - Professor Jennifer Doleac DETERENCE “DNA Profiling reduces the likelihood of any new conviction within five years of release by 3.9% for serious violent offenders and 2.9% for serious property offenders.”
CRIME REDUCTTON Database Expansion: 10% increase in database Impact: 5.22% less murders 6.66 % less rapes 8.8% less vehicle thefts
CALCULATIONS/CONCLUSTIONS Each profile added has a social costs savings of approximately $20,096 In 2010 the United States spent $30 million adding 761,609 profiles, but saved $15.3 billion by preventing new crime.
SAVE MONEY Intensive City of Denver DNA property crimes program stops 40 prolific burglars Average Cost of Police Response to Property Crimes Two patrol officers spend an average of 22 minutes getting to crime scene and stay there for 1.5 hours at $35/hour
$131
1.5 crime scene detectives spend an average of 1.5 hours at $40/hour
$90
1 District Detective investigates case for 6 hours at $40/hour
$240
Total
$461 Savings Generated by DNA in the Denver Study 40 prolific burglars identified with DNA in 2006 x 242 potential crimes 9680 cases 9680 cases x $2468 average loss due to property crime cases
$23.9 million
9680 cases x $461 average police response cost
$4.5 million
Total savings
28.4 million
Source: Ashikhmin, S., Berdine, S., Morrissey, M., and LaBerge, G. Effectiveness and Cost Efficiency of DNA Evidence in Volume Crime: Denver Colorado Site Summary.
But despite the accolades and the data, the global public safety community has not advanced the databases to their true potential
Casework comparisons to the database is low
Few countries have built a reference database capable of high hit rates
Average Casework 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000
Over 60% of all casework is from property crimes
30.000 20.000 10.000 0 United Kingdom
Germany
France
United States
Casework per Country Population 0,00070 0,00060 0,00050 0,00040 0,00030 0,00020 0,00010 0,00000 United Kingdom
Germany
France
United States
Are 54 Countries and 70 million samples impressive numbers?
Left with 50 countries and 11 million total samples
o
Convicted not arrested - Only 11 European Countries (less than 25%) have authorized arrestee testing
o
Serious crimes, not all crimes
o
Very few expansion efforts in last ten years o
o
o
United States and Australia have had over 200 separate pieces of legislation attempting expansion during same time period
Hit rates below 10% Consider Belgium - 10 million people - 31,000 offender samples • Compare to: New Zealand - 4.5 million people – 145,000 offender samples North Carolina, USA - 10 million people – 252,000 offender samples Sweden - 10 million people – 143,000 samples
Legal Problems
Privacy concerns
Senior Government Official Awareness
Cultural focus is not on solving and preventing crime
Lack of Advocacy
Police DNA Database attacked “Controls on the database must be tightened to prevent a Big Brother States” - Dr. Helen Wallace, GeneWatch
ACLU Opposes Big Government DNA Database “Anti-big government conservatives should be up in arms about this (legislation to require arrestees to go into the database)– this is a major overstep by our government” - Howard Simon, ACLU
06, 09, 11, 12, 10, 10, 22, 24, 9.3, 10, 08, 09, 14, 14, 15, 17, 17, 22, 25, 12, 12, 9, 10, 09, 13
3 elements to give the DNA reference sample the same privacy reputation as a fingerprint 1. Mandatory sample destination of reference samples - 15 (est.) of the 54 database countries have this legislative policy 2. Limits on familial searching - Most serious of crimes - Last resort - Judicial supervision 3. Responsible Implementation of MPS technology - Only take what you need. Resist creating large amounts of data - Treat coding region DNA (phenotypic/ancestry SNPs) differently - Recognize the power of the machine
Advocacy Wins Victims Vanessa Lynch South Africa
Jayann Sepich United States
Serial murder families Brazil
Chile Launches Criminal DNA Registry The Santiago Times Philippines National Police announces plans to take DNA from all arrestees
Public Officials
Dr. Gaston Bocaz Dr. Lorna Santos
Behind most successful national criminal offender database programs is a DNA scientist that makes it their mission to establish or expand DNA databases by pushing this policy to the highest levels of government within their country.
Data driven results Technology enhancements
The leadership of the forensic DNA scientist
Public Advocacy
Offender profile growth
Casework growth
Crimes solved & prevented
Tim Schellberg
[email protected] (253) 209-8818 Speaker was provided travel and hotel support by Thermo Fisher Scientific for this presentation, but no remuneration