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Idea Transcript
TRINITY COLLEGE DUBLIN Management Science and Information Systems Studies Project Report
TICTOC PLATFORM Analysis of Consumer Behaviour and Demand Response with Electric Vehicles 20/03/15
Prepared by: Rory Cafferky
Supervisor: Brett Houlding
DECLERATION I declare that the work described in this dissertation has been carried out in full compliance with the ethical research requirements of the School of Computer Science and Statistics. Signed: ___________________ Rory Cafferky 20/03/15
ABSTRACT
This project hopes to form innovative new ways to encourage customers to reduce or move energy consumption outside of peak hours (5-7pm). The project explores the current state of the energy industry in Ireland and the future outlook for the industry. Analysis was carried out on participants who took part in a smart meter trial over the course of the year. The analysis was used to identify current trends in consumers’ energy consumption behaviour as well as establish customer profiling in order to market different loyalty schemes.
Preface Tictoc Platform is an IT-based service community platform that incentivises better use and consumption of electrical energy by both consumers and the private and public sectors. Tictoc make this possible through the use of innovation and data analytics. Tictoc’s IT mainframe enables market entities to trade excess energy with each other, Tictoc also provides the opportunity to trade excess energy for alternative goods and services. It is Tictoc’s goal to transform the way customers view their energy. They hope to encourage people to view energy as a commodity rather than a utility. The qualitative analysis was carried out in order to get an insight into the industry and to develop a good background for the project. It was used to help formulate ideas used throughout the project which were later backed up with quantitative analysis. The quantitative analysis was used in order to establish different patterns of electricity consumption for different demographics. This was combined with qualitative research to generate different loyalty programs to incentives better electricity consumption. The analysis of data was slower than anticipated. Some of the dataset contain missing data that needed to be cleaned before analysis. A dataset from Renault, containing information on electric vehicles was never made available for analysis. The author would like to thank Tictoc for the data and support provided throughout the project. The author would like to thank Eirgrid for data provided for the project. The author would like to thank James Ennis (Director of Tictoc Platform) and Professor Brett Houlding for the assistance given throughout the project.
Tictoc Platform Analysis of Consumer Behaviour and Demand Response with Electric Vehicles 20/03/15
TABLE OF CONTENT NO.
SECTION
PAGE
1
INTRODUCTION
1
1.1
The Client
1
1.2
Project Background
1
1.3
Terms of Reference
1
1.4
Summary
2
2
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
3
2.1
Conclusion
3
2.2
Recommendations
4
3
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
5
3.1
Current State of the Irish Energy Industry
5
3.2
The Future of the Energy Industry
6
3.3
Energy as a commodity Rather than a Utility
8
3.4
The origins of loyalty schemes, assessed against their success or failures
9
3.5
Future of Electric vehicle vs Fuel driven vehicles
11
3.6
Climate change and the opportunities it may provide
13
3.7
Summary
13
4
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
14
4.1
Exploring and cleaning up the Data
14
4.2
Trend Analysis on Customers Energy Consumption
14
4.3
Analysis of Smart Meter Survey to use for Customer Profiling
16
4.4
Regression Analysis, Exploring the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions.
18
4.5
Logistic Regression to Better Understand Night and Day Users
Tictoc Platform - Analysis of Consumer Behaviour and DR with EV March 2015
Page |1
1 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY This chapter gives an overview of the project, it contains information on the client, the project, terms of reference and a summary.
1.1
The Client Tictoc Platform is an IT-based service community platform that incentivizes better use and consumption of electrical energy by consumers and by the private and public sector. Tictoc’s IT mainframe enables market entities to trade excess energy with each other, Tictoc also provides the opportunity to trade excess energy for alternative goods and services.
1.2
Project Background The introduction of smart meters along with other new technologies within the utility industry has resulted in a far greater understanding of the consumers’ energy consumption behaviour. Consumption costs are rising due to the ever increasing demand for electricity. This has caused an increased strain on the electrical grid as well as the environment. These price increases and production demands are caused by energy usage at peak occasions when electricity demand is at its highest. This results in a more expensive generation source being used (both financially and in terms of carbon emissions). If customers could be convinced to reduce their energy consumption during these peak periods or perhaps move to an off peak period when prices are lower they would experience savings on utility bills and an overall reduction in carbon emissions.
1.3
Terms of Reference Areas to be analysed: Qualitative analysis
Climate change and the opportunities it may provide. The emerging smart grid and the implication of smart meters and M2M (machine 2 machine) data Energy as a commodity rather than a utility. The energy sector in future years, emerging & disruptive technologies and their implications. What drives consumption trends? The origins of loyalty schemes, assessed against their success or failures. Electric Vehicles (EV) – charging – Electricity versus Oil
Tictoc Platform - Analysis of Consumer Behaviour and DR with EV March 2015
Page |2
Idea Analysis
Excess energy remuneration through goods and services. Suitability of loyalty schemes by demographic grouping. EV – recharging schemes
Quantitative Analysis
1.4
Trend Analysis:
Identifying peak usage.
Survey Analysis:
Pre and post residential survey.
Regression Analysis: Relationship between CO2 emissions and electricity demand
Cluster Analysis: Establish different demographic group’s to target for different Loyalty schemes.
EV Analysis:
Subject to data provided by Tictoc.
Summary Tictoc’s goal is to incentivise better energy consumption during peak hours of energy demand. Through the use of their IT mainframe systems, Tictoc hopes to create a social dialogue on energy consumption, through which different entities in energy markets can trade excess energy, saving customers money on utility bills and reducing carbon emissions.